Our NBA season has picked up where it left off last year, hitting at 57% so far with over 100 picks. It’s a long season with a ton of ups and downs, so buckle up and let’s keep on beating the book! Here’s my favorite Thanksgiving-Eve bet in the NBA!
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NFL Circa Picks: 35-19-1 NBA: 63-48 (57%), +21.97 units
Lakers win (+110), 2 units: Do I like the idea of betting on the Lakers this year? Absolutely not. Russel Westbrook is proving that he’s not an ideal fit in this offense. The methodical, tough style of Lakers basketball we’re used to seems like a distant memory. When Russ is in the equation (and Rondo, for that matter), the Lakers push the basketball with more pace and, inevitably, with many more turnovers. Russel Westbrook led the NBA in turnovers for weeks, but has only recently been eclipsed by James Harden. He’s now in 2nd with 4.9 turnovers per game. Yikes.
The truth is, there’s not much to like about the Lakers so far. They’re not fluid, they’re inconsistent, and they’ve been plagued with injuries (again). Meanwhile, there’s plenty to like about the Pacers. Although they can also be wildly inconsistent, Indiana is top 10 in quite a few offensive categories (shooting %, shooting efficiency, points in the paint, etc.), but they certainly don’t check a lot of boxes on defense. Where the Pacers thrive on offense they often lack on the other end of the hardwood, ranked 25th in opponent points in the paint and 25th in opponent 3 point percentage, according to TeamRankings.com. They also foul too much, turn the ball over a ton, and rarely snag offensive rebounds (they’re bottom 3rd in all those categories). The Pacers are a prototypical “good not great” franchise that can beat most NBA teams if the spot and situation is right.
With all these factors taken into consideration, why the hell do I like the Lakers tonight? One word: motivation. The Lakers got bested by the Knicks last night in a closely fought contest between two historically great teams. While it didn’t have the same flair it usually does, LAL fought hard and came back from a 16 point 1st quarter deficit to nearly win. Anthony Davis didn’t shoot or play well, going 7-17 from the field and grabbing only 6 rebounds. Tonight I expect that to change against a beatable Pacers front court. Oh yeah and, after serving a one-game suspension and being maligned by the media for days on end, Lebron returns tonight. You don’t have to love or even like Lebron, but these are the situations where he plays his best– responding to adversity. It’s what makes him great, and it’s the biggest reason why I think the Lakers will look different tonight.
One of the most important aspects of NBA betting is not overreacting to any one game or even a slew of games. The Lakers have lost 4 of their last 5 games and they’re now officially under .500 on the season. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Something tells me Lebron and company will express max-effort tonight (even on a back to back) to make sure they head into the holiday with more confidence. The Pacers are a good team, but I can only look at the Lake-show tonight.
Great night Tuesday, going 3-1 in college ball and 2-1 in the NBA. Let’s keep it rolling– the Thanksgiving-eve NBA slate can be very strange so proceed with caution, but I don’t see how any of these teams don’t cover. On a “normal” Wednesday, they’re all great value. Let’s hope it pans out normally.
NBA Today:
Hornets -7.5 **
Lakers win ** (Lebron and AD both listed as back and Lebron has to be pissed heading into this one, even though he was in the wrong)
Suns -6.5 **
Bulls -8.5 **
1 unit parlay: Suns, Bulls, Hawks, Wizards, Grizzlies (to win 5.5 units because hey, it’s the holidays and hey, I think they all win- duh)
NFL Thanksgiving:
Lions +3 *
Cowboys -7 or 7.5 ***
Bills -6 **
Turkey Teaser (7 pts): Lions +10, Cowboys win, Bills +1 (2 units to win 3)
NFL Lookaheads:
Bucs -3 ** (Switched here- gave you Colts +3 yesterday. If you had the Colts +4, I might keep it. That’s a good middle, but I think the value is on a Bucs team that’ll force Indy to throw)
Small NBA card today but still some value… This Lakers squad that looks to be without Lebron or AD, what keeps me off playing against them is the Superstar Subtraction angle. This angle has been coming through this year where you play on a team the first game after that team has had a significant personnel loss. Add to that, the Knicks just haven’t been playing well lately.
So then we look at the total. The 214.5 total looks like it could be a good play on an Under, but I like the 1H total better. Books are setting the 1st half at 109, almost begging you to take the under at 3.5 points less the difference of half the total. I’ll nibble on it. While the Lakers are 10-8 1H O/U for 2nd best to the over, meanwhile the Knicks are the 4th worst at 6-11 to the under. Given that the Lakers are without some significant scorers tonight, the Knicks just aren’t shooting well lately and we’re heading into a holiday, give me the 1H UN 109 (-111) for a 1.11 unit play!
Ok I know. It feels very very public to be betting on the biggest non-conference game of the year, and I definitely understand that, but I really do not understand this line whatsoever. Maybe it takes some intestinal fortitude to play this game, but I have to look at what these teams returned, what these teams are so far today, and what their motivation might be in this massive spot. UCLA was the number 2 team coming into the season behind Gonzaga, but is the difference between these teams this big to warrant a 7 point spread on a neutral? Most of the same players for the Bruins that pushed the Zags into overtime last year in the final 4 return from last year.
Key Departed Players:
Chris Smith, Guard, 12.6 ppg
Jalen Hill, Forward/Center, 6.5 ppg
Key Returning Players:
Johnny Juzang, Junior, Guard, 16.0 ppg
Jaime Jaquez Jr, Junior, Guard/Forward, 12.3 ppg
Tyger Campbell, Junior, Guard, 10.4 ppg
Jules Bernard, Senior, Guard, 10.3 ppg
Cody Riley, Senior, Forward, 10.0 ppg
Key New Players:
Myles Johnson, Senior, Center, Transfer from Rutgers
As for the Zags, they return some key guys but they also lost a ton of production seen here below:
Key Departed Players:
Corey Kispert, Forward, 18.6 ppg
Jalen Suggs, Guard, 14.4 ppg
Joel Ayayi, Guard, 12.0 ppg
Aaron Cook, Guard, 4.2 ppg
Oumar Ballo, Center, 2.5 ppg
Key Returning Players:
Drew Timme, Junior, Forward, 19.0 ppg
Andrew Nembhard, Senior, Guard, 9.2 ppg
Anton Watson, Junior, Forward, 6.9 ppg
Julian Strawther, Sophomore, Forward, 3.4 ppg
Key New Players:
Rasir Bolton, Senior, Guard, Transfer from Iowa State
Joe Few, Freshman, Guard
Nolan Hickman, Freshman, Guard
Chet Holmgren, Freshman, Center
Now I know that Mark Few is the best coach in basketball that never won an NCAA tournament, but this is a big revenge spot here for the Bruins and this game is being played in Las Vegas at T-Mobile arena which almost could be stated as their back yard. The Zags are destroying teams so far but their competition has seriously been lack-luster this far and I am also not buying their 12 point win vs number 14 in Kenpom Texas team as a great performance. I think that the Longhorns are a big overrated team coming into this season, therefore, I do not see that as a huge win. The Bruins win vs Villanova is more legit being that Nova took out number 11 on Kenpom Tennessee and pushed number 4 Purdue to the final minute of their game. I think that this should be more of a 4 point spread here, and I will take the Bruins in a big spot to show everyone that they are a very legit contender and the team to beat going forward.
The Suns were up by 13 with 3 minutes left last night, so it’s pretty fair to say that we experienced a tremendous bad beat. But the Grizzlies man– love it! Hope you sprinkled some on the ML and used every bit of that 3 star play for a win. What a spot!
Oh yea, and remind me to never bet on the Giants again.
I’m out sick today from work, which for me just means I have MORE time to cap– LFG! Here are some NBA and some CBB picks– good luck!
CBB:
Akron/App State under 130.5 *
UMBC -5 *
Wisconsin TT under 57.5 *
UCLA/Gonzaga under 156.5 **
NBA: (not a ton of value on today’s board but I’ll keep looking)
Mavericks +5.5 * let’s hope Doncic plays but I like them either way
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 12 and NFL week 11 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 13 and NFL Week 12. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 13! Then, D-Nasty comes on and the guys talk some fantasy football for week 12. Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust are all discussed. Finally, Dave and Kiev give out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your fantasy football matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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The NHL has three games going tonight. It’s a light slate that’s highlighted by the Flyers taking on the Lightning. Check out my preview and picks below for that game and Dallas vs Edmonton.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Philadelphia Flyers: 8-5-3, 4th Metropolitan (4-2-1 Away)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 10-4-3, 3rd Atlantic (5-3-2 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Philadelphia Flyers
+145
+145
+1.5 (-170)
o5.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Lightning
-165
-165
-1.5 (+150)
u5.5 (-110)
Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games against Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Flyers face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning for the second time in a week. They lost to Tampa Bay at home on Thursday 4-3 in a shootout. Claude Giroux scored a late goal to force over time but Philly failed to score on both attempts in the shootout. Tampa Bay has better as of late winning four of their last five games with the only loss coming to the Devils on Saturday.
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia has been up and down as of late failing to rattle off back to back wins since October. They have struggled offensively as of late only scoring more than two goals twice in their last nine games. The Flyers have one of the worst xGoals % in the league with a 45.48% and only average 2.27 goals for per 60. Philadelphia also has a -2.57 goals for above expected meaning they’re failing to capitalize on their opportunities. Claude Giroux leads the team in scoring averaging a point per game. The Flyers also lost Kevin Hayes who’s out for tonight’s matchup with an abdominal injury.
The Flyers have been better defensively only allowing 2.11 goals against per 60. However, they have allowed 34 high danger shots against which ranks near the worst in the league. Philadelphia is one of the least disciplined teams in the league, ranking 25th in Penalty Minutes. This is an issue because they have the third worst Penalty Kill % (83.3%) which has caused issues for them. Losing Ryan Ellis on the back end is also a huge blow to their defensive core. Carter Hart is expected to get the start in net. He had a +0.62 GSAx in his start vs Tampa a few nights ago and has a +12.1 GSAx on the year.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Bolts are in the middle of a four game home stand where they’ve split the first two games, losing to the Devils and defeating the Wild. Tampa has a 52.44 xGoals % and 2.32 goals for per 60 average. One issue is their failure to convert on chances with a -3.02 goals for above expected. The Lightning Power Play has been an area for concern in the past and has gone 3-15 as of late which is slightly below their average on the year. Kucherov is still on injured reserve in addition to Brayden Point and Eric Cernak.
Tampa Bay’s defense has actually been pretty good this year with a -1.76 goals against above expected. They have a 2.17 goals against per 60 and are conceding the fourth fewest high danger shots against (23). Victor Hedman, a Norris trophy winner, continues to lead the charge on defense for them averaging a point per game. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the start tonight. He had a -0.63 GSAx in the win over the Flyers on Thursday. However, despite that performance he has a +5.1 GSAx on the year.
PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-110)
This is a tough game to pick a side, I do feel like the Flyers at +145 do have some value but am still hesitant to take them here. Both goalies have been playing well and with Tampa missing a few keys up front I like the under here.
Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Edmonton Oilers: 13-4-0, 2nd Pacific (5-3-0 Away)
Dallas Stars: 7-7-2, 6th Central (4-2-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Edmonton Oilers
+100
-105
+1.5 (-245)
o6.0 (-110)
Dallas Stars
-120
-115
-1.5 (+205)
u6.0 (-110)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton’s last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas’ last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton’s last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers are 7-3 in November and come into this game on a two game win streak. Edmonton have one of the best goals for per 60 with 2.67 and a +1.6 goals for above expected. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to lead the league in points with 35 and 32 respectively. The Oilers Power Play also leads the league in conversion % (39.6%).
On defense, the Oilers have been sub par with a +1.66 goals against above expected, giving up an average of 2.82 goals against per 60. They’re currently giving up the most shots against per game with a 34.2 average. The Oilers are also missing a key piece of there defense with Darnell Nurse out indefinitely with a finger injury. Slater Koekkoek is also out for them which makes matters worse. Stuart Skinner is expected to get the start over Mikko Koskinen. Skinner has been good in his five starts this year with a +3.7 GSAx.
Dallas Stars
The Stars have been mediocre this year with a 7-7-2 record, sitting in 6th place in the Central division. Dallas comes into this game on a three game home winning streak defeating the Flyers, Red Wings, and Blues. The Stars have been an over machine lately going over the total in seven of their last eight games. Dallas has a 51.88 xGoals% with the leagues worst goals for per 60 (1.58). They also have of the leagues worst goals for above expected with a -8.5. The one bright spot for Dallas offensively has been their Power Play that ranks 5th in conversion %.
The Stars have been bitten by the injury bug in net with Ben Bishop on IR and Braden Holtby questionable for tonight’s game with a lower body injury. They haven’t been much defensively as the have one of the worst goals against above expected with a +2.64. However, they are only averaging 2.26 goals against per 60 which is middle of the pack. Unlike their Power Play, their Penalty Kill hasn’t been great ranking 21st in the league.
PICK: OVER 6.0 (-110)
PICK: EDMONTON OILERS (-105)
While the Stars offense has been inconsistent at some times, they have been better as of late. Edmonton continues to roll offensively and faces a struggling Dallas defense. Also with the Stars issue’s in net, I think Edmonton has a clear goalie advantage.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
