Green Bay out-gained Kansas City 301 to 237 yet lost 13-7. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams got them.
The Raiders out-gained the Giants 403 to 245 yet lost 23-16. A 3-1 turnover ratio and that pick 6 got them.
The Bills out-gained the Jags 301 to 218 yet lost 9-6. A 3-1 turnover ratio and bad quarterback play from Josh Allen got them.
The Ravens out-gained the Vikings 500 to 318 yet only won 34-31. A 2-0 turnover ratio had them in danger most of the game.
The Rams out-gained the Titans 347 to 194 yet lost 28-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency got the Rams and destroyed teasers all around the block.
Akron out-gained Ball State 458 to 425 yet lost 31-25. A 1-0 turnover ratio hurt and the fact that they are Akron.
Miami (OH) out-gained Ohio 569 to 413 yet lost 35-33. Equal turnovers and bad penalties and efficiency got them.
Toledo out-gained Eastern Michigan 672 to 490. A 3-1 turnover ratio and 12 penalties killed them.
Western Michigan out-gained Central Michigan 445-389 yet lost 42-30. A 3-0 turnover ratio hurt bad.
Air Force out-gained Army 401 to 316 yet lost in OT 21-14. A 1-0 turnover ratio did them in.
Wake Forest out-gained UNC 615 to 546 yet lost 58-55. A 2-1 turnover ratio did them in.
Minnesota out-gained Illinois 289 to 265 yet lost 16-6. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency killed them.
Miami out-gained Georgia Tech 563 to 329 yet onlhy won by 3. A 3-1 turnover ratio hurt them.
Tulsa out-gained Cincinnati 446 to 390 yet lost 28-20. They also won the turnover battle but bad on 3rd and 4th down efficiency.
South Alabama out-gained Troy 335 to 308 yet lost 21-24. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency got them.
Oregon State out-gained Colorado 475 to 392 yet lost 37-34 in overtime. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad field position got them.
Kentucky out-gained Tennessee 612 to 461 yet lost 45-42. Equal turnovers and poor field position got them this game.
Louisville out-gained Clemson 397 to 345 yet lost 30-24. They also won the turnover battle 1-0 but bad 3rd down efficiency and field position got them. They blew this one.
San Jose State out-gained Nevada 449 to 367 yet lost 27-24. A 3-2 turnover ratio and 4/15 3rd down conversions got them.
Hawaii out-gained San Diego Sate 260-227 yet lost 17-10. Bad red zone efficiency got them.
Historically, the Kings have been a bottom-dweller in the NBA while the Spurs just recently concluded one of the more consistent dynasties in recent history. With that said, the Spurs have slipped in recent seasons; this edition of the Spurs may very well be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, Sacramento has proven to be competitive this season(5-6 record) despite having one of the toughest schedules in the league to date. Coming off back-to-back close losses to Indiana and Phoenix at home, I expect this Kings team to come out hot tonight and start off their easy road trip with a W.
A lot has been made of Michael Porter Jr’s absence from the Nuggets, and on top of that, Denver will be without their “QB” Nikola Jokic tonight. Even so, this is a stark overreaction to each of those guys’ absence. The Nuggets have the necessary depth to be able to withstand 2 of their best players not being able to go, especially in the short term. Indiana has been valued highly by the oddsmakers all season, but winning in the altitude is a tough ask for this squad that is still getting acclimated to 1st year HC Rick Carlisle. Additionally, the Pacers could be without G Malcolm Brogdon tonight, which they certainly can’t afford. Denver looked good in their blowout win over Miami on Monday night, and they certainly have what it takes to band together and win one without Porter Jr and Jokic.
*NBA(1u): Suns -5(-110) vs Trail Blazers–8:10 PM CT
We were on the Clippers last night because the Trail Blazers have yet to win a road game under 1st year HC Chauncey Billups. Now, you’re asking them to come back tonight and win against an even better Suns team? No chance. Phoenix got embarrassed in Portland(29 point loss) earlier this season, so you can expect that the reigning Western Conference champs will be ready to roll tonight. You can’t trust Portland on the road in virtually any spot, much less on the second game of a back-to-back. Suns blow ‘em out.
The early NBA Season has gone well so far, hitting at nearly 60% over the last 3 weeks. We all know it’s a long 82 game stretch and we’ll experience plenty of variance, both from these teams and from our own angles. Happy to have you all here for the ride!
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MLB Season: 231-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 57-54, +7.2 units
NFL Circa Picks: 32-17-1 NBA 21/22 Season: 37-26 (59%), +15.64 units
Bucks/Knicks over 215.5 (-110), 2 units: The Bucks travel to Madison Square Garden on less than a day’s rest after overcoming the depleted 76ers last night. It was a good all-around game for Giannis (shocking, right?) and it was a solid performance from Bobby Portis, who’s working his way back into the rotation and looked like his energetic self in Philly. Jrue Holiday, who’s also adjusting to the regular season after only playing 5 games, didn’t have as brilliant a night. The stud point guard will improve as the season wanes on, but for now it’s promising news that a banged-up Bucks roster can still hold their own in spots they should win. Grayson Allen’s 25 points on 8-13 hasn’t gone unnoticed either– he’s been a great contributor in the early parts of this season. Although Milwaukee has experienced some early woes and challenges, this is still a deep, capable roster.
When a team plays a back-to-back, especially a team as injury-plagued as the Bucks, you might assume that it will result in a lethargic, slow-paced effort on the night following game one. While that’s sometimes true, from the data we’ve collected, game totals can just as easily be inflated due to a lack of defensive effort. While that’s a tough thing to measure, “effort,” sometimes a simple “eye test” just tells us this is true. The Bucks will continue to be without rim-protector Brook Lopez, and while we wish Khris Middleton was back, this team showed it can still produce plenty of offense against a stingy 76ers lineup last night. Expect the Bucks to look like a heavyweight contender again soon.
The Knicks, on the other hand, have flipped their persona over the last 3 weeks. New York comes into this game ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and ranked 22nd in points allowed per game– not exactly reminiscent of last year’s blue-collar, gritty defense that we’ve come to know. New additions Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier have surely helped– they’ve significantly increased the amount of 3s attempted and the amount of 3s made for New York per game– and Derrick Rose coming off the bench doesn’t hurt, either. Typically I prepare for regression in a case like this, and I’m sure their defense will improve, but the Knicks are currently top 10 in effective field goal percentage, top 10 in possessions, and 3rd in points per game. For now, this is a team built more around efficient offense.
So far NBA totals are considerably down from what we saw in last year’s regular season, and the market is attempting to adjust. There’s a number of reasons for this– there’s always more than one reason– but when we feel the number drops too low, it’s time to take advantage. The spot, the averages, and the ability of these two offenses has my number closer to 220. For that reason, this is an auto-bet on the over!
Tough start to the week with terrible goalie play hurting us on Monday and Tuesday. There’s only three games happening in the NHL tonight so selection is fairly limited. The main matchup for the night is the Maples Leafs vs the Flyers.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: NHL Network
Toronto Maple Leafs: 7-5-1, 4th Atlantic (1-3 Away)
Philadelphia Flyers: 6-2-2, 4th Metropolitan (3-1-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Toronto Maple Leafs
-135
-125
-1.5 (+180)
o6.0 (-105)
Philadelphia Flyers
+125
+115
+1.5 (-210)
u6.0 (-115)
The Toronto Maple Leafs head to Philadelphia winning six of their last seven games. After a slow start to the season, the Maple Leafs believed they had turned it around. However, on Monday, they got blown out by the Los Angeles Kings, 5-1, as a massive favorite. To be fair, the Kings are one of the hottest teams in the NHL but, the performance by Jack Campbell has created some cause for concern.
Toronto’s offense hasn’t seemed to have found their groove yet. They currently rank 26th in the NHL averaging just 2.54 goals per game. The Leafs have the same issues every year and this year is no different. Toronto’s roster is so top heavy that Marner, Matthews, Tavares, Nylander need to score so much to make up for the lack of production from the bottom half of the lineup. Having said all that, the biggest issue for the Leafs right now is the inability to convert on scoring chances. Toronto has an expected goals for of 35.16, which leads the league, but only has 21 actual goals for.
The Leafs defense has been middle of the road this year, giving up the 15th most goals allowed per game (2.85). They have also been solid on the Penalty Kill which averages 8th in the league. Jack Campbell is expected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight. He has a 6-3-1 record, 2.09 GAA, .929 SV%, and a +6.3 GSAx. Campbell has played well for them and is the main reason that the Leafs don’t have a worse record given their lack of offensive production.
The Philadelphia Flyers have had a great start to the season going 6-2-2 in their first 10 games. The Flyers are led by none other than Claude Giroux on offense with 12 points. Cam Atkinson, who was traded to Philadelphia last year, has seemed to fit in nicely with 8 points though their first 10 games. Unlike Toronto, the Flyers are getting scoring from all over the roster as they average 3.2 goals per game (11th).
After a disappointing season last year by Carter Hart, he has been great this year with a +6.0 GSAx. Through Hart’s play, the Flyers are allowing an average of just 2.4 goals against per game which is good enough for 4th in the NHL. One issue that will need to be addressed on defense if they want to continue to win, is limiting high-danger scoring changes. The Flyers are currently the 5th worst team and preventing those chances.
PICK: PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (+115)
(Confirm Carter Hart is still starting for Philadelphia before placing your wager)
This game is a pick ’em according to everything I see. Philadelphia should be able to generate plenty of scoring changes against the Leafs. While Toronto should struggle to as they face one of the best defenses in the league. As previously mentioned, Philly does give up a lot of high danger chances but, Toronto has one of the worst conversion rates in the league. This won’t be an easy game for either side but given the Flyers start to the season and improvement in Hart’s play, I like them at home. Toronto has also struggled on the road this year going just 1-3.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Viktor Hovland repeats as champion at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. He becomes the first PGA Tour member to win a tournament title back-to-back since Brooks Koepka won the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships. Hovland was outstanding all tournament but, especially on Saturday, where he shot a career low 62.
We had Matthew Wolff who was leading the tournament going into the weekend until he shot a 74 on Saturday which moved him out of contention. Wolff would wind up finishing T5 for the tournament. However, we also had Mexico native Carlos Ortiz who finished second in the tournament. In the past four tournaments we have been so close to sweeping with the following results:
WWT Championship: Carlos Ortiz (2nd Place, 80-1)
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Patrick Reed (2nd Place, 20-1)
CJ Cup @ Summit: Collin Morikawa (2nd Place, 16-1)
The PGA Tour travels up to Texas where the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open will take place. This event has undergone a few sponsorship, venue, and date changes over the past few years but remains a regular stop on the PGA Tour. We have a decent field this week that features 18 of the world’s top 50 golfers as of now.
Tournament Information:
Dates: November 11th, 2021- November 14th, 2021
Location: Houston, Texas, United States
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,412 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
Greens: MiniVerde bermudagrass .100″
Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .425″
Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 12.0- 12.5 feet
Purse: $7,500,000 / Winner $1.350 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 17
Water Hazards: 2 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft. (Large)
Scoring Average:
2020: 71.03 (+1.03)
Course/ Tournament History:
The Houston Open will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course for just the second time. In 2019 the Astros Foundation donated $34 million to revamp Memorial Park under the leadership of Tom Doak. Brooks Koepka was the PGA advisor for that renovation and is in the field this week (we’ll get to him later).
Prior to 2020, this tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston. Last year this tournament took place in a week before the Masters due to the COVID-19 schedule changes. However this year, it’s the second to last PGA Tour Event in the Fall season.
This is also the first year that Hewlett Packard Enterprise will take over the sponsorship rights. With this change in sponsorship, the prize pool has been increased back to $7.5 Million which we saw in 2019.
After several weeks of short courses we finally arrive at Memorial Park Golf Course. Memorial is a particularly long course that plays just over 7,400 yards and places on emphasis on Strokes Gained Off the Tee. We always talk about how the long hitters have an advantage but they especially do here. Memorial played as the 12th toughest venue on tour last year which correlates to the scoring average.
This is a municipal course so if you’re ever in the Houston area, feel free to go check it out. When describing the course, it’s fairly open off the tee with generous fairways. The fairways are tree-lined however, they are a ways back and don’t place as big as an emphasis on driver accuracy like we saw last week. The rough is fairly penalizing and can burry the ball forcing a less than ideal approach shot. Memorial only has 17 bunkers that don’t play much of a factor. Most of the bunkers were eliminated during the 2019 renovation.
An interesting note for this tournament last year was that Strokes Gained: Around the Green played more of a role than Strokes Gained: Approach. Memorial features elevation changes from fairways to greens which makes approach shots even more challenging. This also placed an emphasis on play around the green due to missed GIR as previously mentioned. Carlos Ortiz who won the Houston Open last year finished 1st in scrambling for this event.
The length is the main factor here with eight of the ten Par 4’s playing over 440 yards. Out of these eight Par 4’s, two of them are over 500 yards (Holes #1 and #18). Memorial has five Par 3’s that are relatively long with the most difficult playing 237 yards (Hole #11). All three of the Par 5’s are very long and really provide a scoring advantage for long players. Like last year, birdie opportunities will be hard to come by and must be taken advantage of.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: John Bredemus (1936)
Renovations: Tom Doak w/ Brooks Koepka as PGA adviser (2019)
Renovated #9 green complex and removed two of the bunkers. Also added 750 sq. ft. to #2 green.
** Prior to 2020 the Houston Open was played at the Golf Club of Houston (previously Redstone Golf Course)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
Price: 160-1
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)**
Price: 60-1
2018: Ian Poulter (-19)**
Price: 100-1
2017: Russell Henley (-20)**
Price: 40-1
Picks (Outright):
Sungjae Im (+2500) – Caesars
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Sungjae Im starts the card for us coming off a win earlier this year in the Shriners Children’s Open. He’s been playing exceptionally well this year and enters the tournament 2nd in the FedEx Cup standings. Sungjae ranks 3rd in SG: Around the Green, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in SG: Total, and 26th in SG: Off the Tee. On top of that, he’s 63rd in Driving Distance and 6th in GIR %. Last year he finished 50th but given his recent form I think he can improve on that finish. If all those stats weren’t convincing enough, he’s also 2nd in Scrambling on Tour which as we saw last year played a major factor in Ortiz winning this event.
Brooks Koepka (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
After a brief peak at #golftwitter I think everyone is on Brooks this week which means we’ve most likely mushed him. With Brooks involved in the re-design of Memorial Park, he was bound to be a popular play. He hasn’t been too impressive this year especially last week when he missed the cut. Brooks finished 5th last year in the Houston Open.
Talor Gooch (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Gooch has been one of the stars during the PGA Tour’s fall season along with Wise. In his last four tournaments Talor Gooch has finished T11, T5, T11, and T4. He ranks 6th on Tour in SG: Around the Green and Approach the Green. Gooch is has also bee great off the tee ranking 3rd in SG: Tee to Green and 8th in SG: Total. He’s not one of the longest players on tour but does rank within the Top 75 for Driving Distance. Given Talor Gooch’s form and how he’s striking the ball I like him to capture his first PGA Tour victory here. In the 2020 Houston Open, he finished 4th.
Maverick McNealy (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Just like Gooch, Maverick McNealy enters the Houston Open in great form. He’s coming off a T11 at the WWT Championship and a T25 finish a the Zozo. Early in the PGA Tour Fall Season, he finished 2nd at the Fortinet Championship. He currently ranks 20th in SG: Total, 29th in SG: Off the Tee, 32nd in SG: Tee to Green, and 46th in SG: Around the Green. He’s also within the Top 50 of Driving Distance so he does have a slight advantage over the field. Overall, at 40-1 he fits the course extremely well and has a great shot here. Last year he finished 20th in this tournament.
Taylor Pendrith (+12000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.07 to win 8.40 Units
Looks like its the week of the Talor/Taylor’s at the Houston Open for me. Pendrith caught me eye this week due to his ability off the tee. He ranks 20th in SG: Off the Tee and 20th in Driving Distance. This will be his first time competing in this event but has played well as of late besides last week at Mayakoba. He’s a longshot for sure but his distance will allow him to compete this week and give him an advantage over most of the field.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sam Burns (+105) – Draftkings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Mito Pereira (+270) – Draftkings
Risk 0.50 to win 1.35 Units
Luke List (+500) – Draftkings
Risk 0.5 to win 2.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Houston Open : 3.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
