Today Tony George @TGeorgeSports, Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev discuss some huge games for the weekend!
Friday Night on the Hardwood
Very busy time of year for all, so much going on, it’s a very exciting time indeed. With all the data to review, I like to go heavier on sports that have the bigger sample size and tread lightly on the seasons that have just started. I’ll keep my Friday basketball handicaps as brief as possible…
NBA
POR at HOU
Tonight we have two teams that lean to the under as Portland is 5-7 O/U and HOU is 4-7 O/U yet we’re seeing a higher total of 222 for this one given all the unders in the NBA thus far. Tells me books and the market is expecting some regression to the mean on Portland’s poor shooting on the season. And thus, when we look at the 1Q total of 56.5 we see the books are expecting the regression or are tempting bettors to take the Under. With POR sitting at 1-10 O/U for 1Q totals and the Blazers not performing as well on the road, I’ll keep looking to the UN until proven otherwise. HOU does push the pace with a smaller lineup, but the shooting isn’t quite there yet, give me UN the higher total on the 1Q at the lesser juice…
POR/ HOU UN 56.5 (-107) 1.07u
CHI at GSW
“Superstar subtraction theory” (betting on teams the first game after they have a significant personnel loss) has been coming through across all sports it seems this year, so that will keep me off taking the Warriors full game. With the Warriors 9-2 O/U 1Q and the Bulls at 4-7 1Q O/U, we see teams that are starting out a little differently. With Vucevic out for the Bulls, I expect a period of adjustment while GSW is at full strength at home on a Friday. Give me the Warriors-2 1Q!
GSW 1Q -2 (-105) 1.05u
College Football Week 11 Free Plays
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East Carolina vs Memphis -5.5 O/U 59
This game is going to be a good one and Memphis is coming off of a massive win vs a very good SMU team. The question that I have to ask is, how good was SMU? Well their schedule has been terrible this year and they came off of a loss to Houston messing up their undefeated hopes. Either way, this is a let down spot for Memphis. If you look to see who Memphis has on deck, it is Houston who is tied with Cincinnati to be number 1 in the AAC. I think that constitutes a look ahead spot when ECU is quietly making some noise themselves at 5-4 averaging over 30 points per game. ECU took Houston to overtime a few weeks back and right before that played tough at Central Florida. I like how they just finished off Temple while Memphis lost that game. I do not see a big advantage in the metrics for the Tigers because the Pirates had a harder schedule. I will take the points here.
East Carolina +5.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Minnesota vs Iowa -5.5 O/U 37
This is a pure power ratings and matchup handicap for me. Iowa has went 4-0-1 their last 5 games vs the Gophers. Last year they won by 30 points. Iowa only allows 2.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass. When the Gophers face good defenses, they seem to falter. Another concern that I have is that Minnesota is without their three main running backs due to injuries all season long. The Hawkeye’s have been bad their last three games vs Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Northwestern, and I think it’s time to right the ship. My power ratings has this game Iowa -8.25. I’ll grab the Hawkeyes here to win easily and cover in a get up spot at home.
Iowa -5.5 – 2.5 stars
Miami vs Florida State -2.5 O/U 61
I remember not long ago that we all thought D’Eriq King was going to have an amazing Heisman type year, and the Canes were going to be a serious contender. Well, shortly after that, we were proven quite wrong when they lost to Alabama, Michigan State and had a tough game vs Appalachian State. The good news is that Miami found their quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, and they have improved steadily since he came in. Miami played tough vs North Carolina and then upset NC State, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech at home even while losing the turnover battle. The Semi’s on the other hand haven’t shown some of the improvement that I saw with Miami. Their best win was against Syracuse before they knew that they had a quarterback and they caught North Carolina sleeping. After that they lost to NC State and Clemson by double digits. The Canes have a .1 net yard per play advantage even with those 2 bad losses vs Michigan State and Alabama. The Canes also had the harder schedule. I think Miami covers.
Miami -2.5 – 2 stars
College Basketball Friday Free Picks – Sports Betting
UW Green Bay vs Wisconsin -21 O/U 132.5
Wisconsin is under some serious change this year. The Badgers lost 4 of their top 5 starters and top scorers in D’Mitrik Trice, Guard, 13.9 ppg, Micah Potter, Forward, 12.5 ppg, Aleem Ford, Forward, 8.7 ppg, and Nate Reuvers, Forward, 8.3 ppg, while the only 2 recognizable players are Johnathan Davis and Brad Davison. Now I am not saying that Wisconsin can’t match up and easily beat a team ranking 307th on Kenpom like Green Bay with their new players, but what I am saying, is that their former beloved coach Bo Ryan’s son Will Ryan is the coach for UW Green Bay and I do not think that Wisconsin will try and blow this team out towards the end of the second half. Coach Greg Gard only has his job at Wisconsin due to Bo Ryan’s recommendation and it wouldn’t look pretty if this happened. I will take a shot at the Phoenix covering the big spread here. Might be best to not turn this game on until 2 minutes left.
UW Green Bay +21 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Week 11 CFB Free Plays
Through 10 weeks of the CFB season, my record sits at 75-54-1(58%), +29.11u. In addition to these 5 free plays, I’ve reserved 7 CFB plays for my premium members. With another premium winner last night, my premium record moved to 61-28-1(68%), +46.9u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): South Florida TT UNDER 17.5(-125) vs Cincinnati–Fri. 5 PM CT
For a third straight week, undefeated Cincinnati played a game that was too close for comfort. The Bearcats understand that the College Football Playoff committee will do anything in their power to keep them out of the Top 4, and playing inferior teams down to the wire won’t help their cause. Tonight, they should completely outmatch South Florida; I’m expecting a total beatdown. However, because Cincinnati has shown some regression offensively, I feel more comfortable in just trusting the Cincinnati defense. South Florida unexpectedly put up 42 points against Houston last week, but it’s important to note that 14 of those points came via special teams; the Bulls recorded less than 400 total yards of offense. USF is rolling with true freshman QB Timmy McClain(54% completion, 7.3 Y/A), and their inability to establish the run won’t suddenly turn against an elite defense like Cincinnati. The motivation is there for Cincinnati to dominate this game, and I think they’ll do just that. Call it a 45-10 Bearcat win and, more importantly, a win on the USF TT Under.
*CFB(1u): Troy +7(-120) vs Louisiana–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Since losing at Texas to open the season, Louisiana has won 8 straight. However, in their 3 road games during that streak, they have won by a combined 11 points against Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and Arkansas State; those 3 opponents have a combined record of 8-19. Troy(5-4) has won 3 of their last 4 and played their 3 toughest opponents(South Carolina, Liberty, and Coastal Carolina) close to the very end. Dating back to last year, Troy almost upset undefeated Coastal Carolina late in the season in a similar scenario to this one. Louisiana QB Levi Lewis has had a disappointing season(61.7% completion, 7.4 Y/A), and I can’t trust him to turn things around in this spot. While the Ragin’ Cajuns defense is trustworthy, I refuse to acknowledge that Louisiana is 7 points better than Troy. Give me the points.
*CFB(1u): Colorado +17(-110) @ UCLA–Sat. 8 PM CT
A lot of people have written off Colorado, but did you know they beat a decent Oregon State team last week? Even more impressive, an offense that was labeled as inept was able to put up 37 points in the win. QB Brandon Lewis has thrown just 3 INT’s this season, so if the Buffaloes can continue to pound the rock with their RB’s, Lewis won’t be asked to do too much with his arm. UCLA is coming off a BYE week, but I’m not sure how high the motivation is for them in this spot. The Bruins had hopes of competing for a Pac12 championship this season, but sitting at 5-4(2-3 in conference), that now looks unlikely. The Bruins have USC on deck next week, a game that is likely on the front of their minds even a week before. Colorado’s strength on defense is at LB, which bodes well considering the Bruins’ offensive identity is their run game. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson should be back healthy for this one, but he’s been mostly unimpressive this season(59% completion, 7.9 Y/A). UCLA is just 2-3 at home this season, and the Rose Bowl creates little-to-no home field advantage for them. I expect Colorado to build off of last week’s win and keep this within the number.
*CFB(1u): Colorado/UCLA UNDER 57(-110)–Sat. 8 PM CT
Given that I expect Colorado to cover, I believe that to correlate pretty heavily to the Under. Colorado runs the 2nd fewest plays/game in CFB, so even if the Buffs build off of last week’s performance, that might show up more in the time of possession department than it does on the scoreboard. I do expect the Buffs to get stops and thus dictate the pace of this game. In that case, 57 is far too high of a total.
*CFB(1u): Nevada +3(-110) @ San Diego State–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
San Diego State suffered their 1st loss of the season 2 weeks ago to a Fresno State team that is built very similarly to this Nevada bunch. This game has major implications for the Mountain West “West” division race, and I’m trusting the better offense to pull through. Nevada QB Carson Strong is one of the top QB prospects in the country; with a cannon for an arm, what’s even more impressive is that he’s completed more than 70% of his passes this season. A 7.8 Y/A doesn’t do justice to the fact that he can and will beat teams vertically. San Diego State is allowing just 16.6 PPG this season, but as Fresno State proved with a 30 point performance 2 weeks ago, the Aztecs can be beaten by more prolific offenses. San Diego State’s offense is scoring just 19 PPG over their last 4 games and present virtually no threat through the air. Nevada has played a number of “high stakes” games already this season, so I expect them to be mentally prepared for what’s to come from a physical Aztec bunch. I think Nevada wins this game outright, but I’ll take the 3 points as insurance.
Two More NBA Premiums and CFB Week 11 Plays
Two NBA Totals Plays (they’re just too high)
- Mavs/Spurs 1Q under 55.5 **
- Blazers/Rockets under 222.5 *
CFB Week 11 Plays:
- Minnesota/Iowa under 37 **
- Michigan -1.5 **
- Rutgers +7 *
- Georgia/Tennessee under 56 **
- MD/Michigan St. under 61 **
- Wake Forest -1.5 *
- Air Force -2.5 **
- Notre Dame -6 **
Week 11 CFB Premium Plays
Premium Plays: 61-28-1(68%), +46.9u
2021 CFB: 75-54-1(58%), +29.11u
*CFB(1.5u): Miami/Florida State UNDER 61(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Since the injury to Miami QB D’Eriq King, freshman Tyler Van Dyke has stepped in and played about as well as you could hope for. In the Hurricanes’ current 3 game winning streak, Van Dyke has thrown 10 TD’s to just 1 INT and completed 72% of his passes. With that being said, I’m staunch in my belief that regression is due for this Miami offense and specifically Van Dyke. Florida State might be 3-6 on the season, but when healthy, this is a pretty feisty Seminoles bunch. The Seminoles defense is about average, but they have yet to allow more than 35 points in a game since Week 1 against Notre Dame. Van Dyke is not a mobile QB, and past opponents have been able to get pressure on him(15 sacks in 5 starts). Miami RB Jaylan Knighton is averaging just 4.5 YPC this season as well, so the opportunity to win up front is there for Florida State. As for the ‘Noles’ offense, it appears starting QB Jordan Travis will be ready to go after missing last week’s game against NC State. Florida State is much better with Travis at QB due to his abilities as a runner, but even so, the ‘Noles are averaging just 22 PPG against FBS competition this season. Miami’s defense can be leaky, but I do believe they will hold up nicely against a predictable FSU run game without having to worry much about getting beat over the top. Florida State runs just 67.1 plays/game(100th in FBS), and because they will have home field advantage, I do expect them to largely dictate the pace of this game. This is a notorious rivalry game with tons of history and tradition; players on both sides grew up watching this game. You’re going to get each defense’s “A” effort; because each defense matches up nicely with the opposing offense, I expect to see the Under come through for us.
*CFB(1.5u): Purdue/Ohio State OVER 62.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Ohio State has enough talent offensively to where they will have every opportunity to drop at least 40 on any team they play. While they only put up 26 points at Nebraska last week, the Buckeyes are averaging 50 PPG in their other 5 Big10 games and will enjoy the familiar environment back in Columbus on Saturday. I wouldn’t consider Purdue to be bad defensively, but they are nowhere near the level necessary to stop this Buckeye offense. Last week, the Boilermakers yielded 146 rushing yards(6.3 YPC) to Kenneth Walker III of Michigan State, allowing QB Payton Thorne to throw for 9.2 Y/A. While Walker III is a legitimate Heisman contender, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson(936 rush yards, 7.3 YPC) is an even more talented back. The Buckeyes’ elite OL should allow them to establish the run game, which should open up QB CJ Stroud(67% completion, 9.8 Y/A) to strike consistently in the vertical passing game with his dominant WR group. While I’m bullish on the Buckeyes’ offense in this matchup, you have to tip your cap to what Purdue has done on that side of the ball as well. The Boilermakers present almost no threat in the running game, but because they’re willing to acknowledge that, they allow QB Aidan O’Connell to carry the load. O’Connell threw for 536 yards on 54 attempts last week(0 INT’s); while I’m not expecting a similar performance in this one, it proves that Purdue has what it takes to win through the air. Quite frankly, Ohio State hasn’t faced an offense in better current form all season. Ohio State struggled more in their run schemes earlier this season, but I’m not convinced they’re all that sound in the secondary. Purdue runs the 7th most plays/game in the country and will give themselves ample opportunities to score. I’ll call this a 45-24 Buckeyes win and, more importantly, a winner on the Over.
*CFB(1.5u): Minnesota/Iowa UNDER 37(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Is it scary to bet an Under with a total this low? Maybe. However, I’m not worried about this one coming through. Remember, this total is set so low for a reason. The books want nothing more than for you to take the Over. With where each of these offenses are, I have a hard time seeing many points scored in this matchup. Minnesota has deployed a run-heavy attack all season long, but the Gophers are now down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s after Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts suffered season-ending injuries. One might think that the Gophers could simply start relying more on 4th year QB Tanner Morgan, but PJ Fleck has been public in the fact that he has little trust in his WR’s. When the Gophers have tried to air it out(such as last week in a 6 point performance vs Illinois), pass protection has broken down. Iowa made a killing earlier this season on forcing INT’s, so you can expect Minnesota to try to shorten this game(102nd in plays/game this season) and pound the rock, likely to no avail. While Iowa’s defense should feel good about this matchup, the Hawkeyes have their own issues to deal with on the offensive side of things. QB Spencer Petras is out this week, forcing Alex Padilla into his first career start. Padilla entered last week’s game early and led the Hawkeyes to just 17 points against a vulnerable Northwestern defense. Like Minnesota, Iowa likes to control the clock and limit the opposition’s possession(81st in plays/game). Even with Petras healthy, the Hawkeyes averaged just 24 PPG; Minnesota is allowing just 18.3 PPG this season and is respectable in their own right. Each offense is a mess, so this game might not be one you want to watch. However, the Under is the play.
*CFB(1u): Michigan ML(-120) @ Penn State–Sat. 11 AM CT
It’s still to be decided whether Jim Harbaugh can win the “big game”, but from a pure matchup perspective, Michigan has the clear edge in this game. The Wolverines have deployed an efficient 1-2 punch at RB with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins; because the OL has consistently been able to win up front, QB Cade McNamara is seldom needed to do anything more than manage the game. There are some vulnerabilities in the Nittany Lion LB room(which should allow Michigan to establish the run game), but McNamara will almost certainly be needed to make the critical throws in this game. I thought he proved to be competent in a similar environment in East Lansing just 2 weeks ago, so I’m willing to trust him in this spot. What ultimately gets me on Michigan in this game is Penn State’s inability to run the football. The Nittany Lions’ leading rusher(Noah Cain) is averaging just 3.2 YPC this season; when you consider QB Sean Clifford has been sacked 18 times this season, it’s clear that Penn State is struggling to win up front. That bodes horribly in this matchup considering they’ll face one of the most lethal pass rushers in CFB this week(Aidan Hutchinson) and a downright good Wolverine defense. Sean Clifford can excel in an offense where he has enough help around him, but his counterparts on this Penn State offense often leave him out to dry. While this is not a big part of my handicap, it certainly doesn’t hurt that James Franklin’s status as Penn State’s HC is a true question mark at the time being. In any case, I like Michigan to pick up a massive road win in Happy Valley.
*CFB(1u): West Virginia/Kansas State UNDER 47(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
I’ve been on Kansas State Under’s numerous times this season given that the Wildcats run the fewest plays/game in the country and play good defense. I think Kansas State -6 is a pretty sharp line, but I once again see value in playing this one Under the total. West Virginia’s offense is just not very good, as evidenced by a 3 point performance against Oklahoma State last week. RB Leddie Brown has been bottled up against the Mountaineers’ tougher competition, and QB Jarrett Doege almost never challenges defenses vertically. Kansas State has one of the best secondaries in the Big12, so the Wildcats will force WVU to be ultra-efficient and sustain long drives in order to score. So far, that formula hasn’t boded well for West Virginia(20.5 PPG in conference play). Like I said, Kansas State runs the fewest plays/game in the country; they have been quite efficient this season, and yet they still average just 28 PPG. West Virginia’s defense has proven to be stingy at times; they allowed just 16 points on the road against Oklahoma, 17 points at TCU, and 24 points to Oklahoma State last week. The common denominator in all of those performances was their ability to stop the run. They’ll have their hands full with Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn, but I’m counting on the Mountaineers defense to get stops and keep this one competitive. In such a low variance game, I think any total north of 45 is worth a play on the Under.
*CFB Teaser(1u): East Carolina +11 @ Memphis AND Mississippi State +11.5 @ Auburn(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Memphis(5-4) is coming off a big win over SMU last week, but this team has shown some inconsistencies this season(they lost to Temple for crying out loud). QB Sean Henigan is a true freshman who’s still learning the ropes, while ECU QB Holton Ahlers is a 4th year starter with nearly 10,000 career passing yards under his belt. In their last 3 losses, ECU(5-4) has lost by an average 4.6 PPG to South Carolina, UCF, and Houston. Given that Memphis is predictable offensively(Henigan focuses in on one WR), I expect the Pirate defense to step up and force some turnovers from the young QB. From there, Ahlers and a solid 1-2 combo at RB are plenty capable of keeping this a 1 possession game(and perhaps winning outright).
Mississippi State should’ve won at Arkansas last week if not for a last minute Razorback scoring drive(and an 0-3 day from Bulldog kickers). QB Will Rogers seems to have mastered Mike Leach’s Air Raid scheme; the Bulldogs are averaging almost 35 PPG over their past 3 games, and Rogers has completed more than 70% of his passes in 6 of his last 7 games. Auburn is solid in their front 7, but because Miss State seldom relies on their run game, I think Rogers and co. will be able to maneuver their Air Raid scheme as normal. I watched the entirety of the Auburn/Texas A&M game last week, and to say I was appalled by Auburn’s offense would be an understatement. The Tigers present virtually no threat in the vertical passing game, and they won’t have an easy time installing that this week against a solid MSU secondary. I didn’t expect much from Miss State’s front 7 this season, but they have genuinely surprised me with their competency; I think they’re plenty capable of holding Auburn’s run game in check and forcing Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. I think we see a lower-scoring game that comes right down to the wire(like most Mississippi State games seem to).
*CFB(1u): Georgia Tech TT OVER 28.5(-120) vs Boston College–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Georgia Tech is a high-variance team that has shown massive swings in performance this season, but from what I saw in their close 33-30 loss to Miami last week, I believe they’re offense is finding some solid ground. The Yellow Jackets 1-2 combo at RB combined for 142 yards on just 17 carries and have been a strength for GT all season. QB Jeff Sims has seen a slip in his play recently, but he features a cannon of an arm and is also an effective runner. If there’s one thing Boston College HC Jeff Hafley has struggled with throughout his career, it’s dynamic offenses like the one he’ll face on Saturday. The Golden Eagle defense has faced two straight run-first offenses(Syracuse and Virginia Tech) and have proven to be vulnerable against more dynamic offenses like Louisville, NC State, and Missouri. I like Georgia Tech to cross the 30-point barrier in this one.
Premiums, 11.12
Another OFF day. Anunoby scored 20…. some of you still won on that if you hit a lower prop, but LAC allowed 40 in the 1st QTR and 31 in the 4th, and they allowed it from a team playing on a back-to-back. This is not reminiscent of what we’ve seen from them on defense. No comment on the Ravens, gross. And the Pacers? That’s why I hate betting on their games. ONTO FUCKING FRIDAY. I’ll need more time for CFB picks so look for them later today.
NBA:
- Knicks -1.5 * (the better team, good spot, but this line is sneaky)
- Cavs -5 ** (The Cavs should be a significant matchup problem for a Pistons team who depends on scoring from fouls. The Cavs foul the least of any team in the NBA and they have a big-time advantage in the paint)
- Celtics win (+110) – 1 unit to win 1.1 (Celtics are starting to come into their own. But they’re always scary to bet on. Proceed with caution– Bucks still banged up, Boston in a better spot, too)
- Mavs -2.5 ** (this is a 2.5 star play, almost made it 3. This is the kind of game where the Mavericks win and win with ease. In their last game against SA, which they also won, it was only close because of bad 3 point shooting and turnovers. I expect the Mavs to clean up and get a win by more margin tonight in a good spot)
NHL Preview & Picks – November 12, 2021 (Side, Totals, & Player Props)
We got a nice 5 game slate tonight in the NHL. I breakdown 4 out of those 5 games below and offer picks for each. Check it out!
- Game 1: Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs (7:00 PM)
- Game 2: Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes (7:00 PM)
- Game 3: Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres (7:00 PM)
- Game 4: Washington Capitals @ Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 PM)
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: TSN, SN WEST
- Calgary Flames: 7-3-3, 2nd Pacific (5-2 Away)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 8-5-1, 2nd Atlantic (6-2-1 Home)
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Calgary Flames | +130 | +130 | +1.5 (-190) | o5.5 (-125) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -150 | -150 | -1.5 (+165) | u5.5 (+105) |
The Flames will travel to Toronto after losing in Montreal last night 4-2. This will be the second game in their six game road trip. Toronto will have had one day of rest after their 3-0 win in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
The Flames have had a great start to the season with a 7-3-3 record. However, they have struggled as of late dropping their last four out of five games. Even with their recent struggles, they still are tied for 6th in goals per game averaging 3.42. Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm lead the team in points with 14 each.
Calgary has shined on defense this year only allowing an average of 2.17 goals against. This number is correlates to their goals against above expected of -6.98. They have also done a great job of providing Markstom with support by limiting the number of high danger scoring chances. Speaking of Jacob Markstrom, he has very dependable this year in his ten starts with a +6.6 GSAx. He did start last night vs Montreal so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Daniel Vladar get the start tonight. Vladar has played in two games and has won both starts. However, he hasn’t necessarily played great in those games with a -1.4 GSAx.
Toronto played a much better game on Wednesday against Philadelphia after getting embarrassed by the Kings on Monday. The Leafs we’re on a roll, winning five straight before that loss to Los Angeles.
The Leafs have one of the best top six forwards in the NHL which includes Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Matthews. However, Tavares is questionable for tonight’s game as he’s recovering from a lower body injury. The loss of their Captain significantly impacts them as he has an xGoals of 3.87. Toronto relies heavily on their top two lines and without them, they struggle to generate scoring changes. They currently rank 26th in the NHL averaging 2.57 goals per game. The biggest issue for the Leafs has been their inability to convert as they rank last in the league with a -14.48 goals for above expected. This could be a major issue as they face a tough Calgary defense that limits scoring opportunities to begin with.
Shockingly enough, the Leafs defense has been better than their offense. They rank 9th in goals allowed per game with 2.64. Toronto currently has a -4.82 goals against above expected which is mostly due to the play of Jack Campbell. Campbell had a breakout year last season for the Leafs with a +8.4 GSAx and has continued that strong play this year with a +8.5 GSAx. With the Leafs having a day off, he’s expected to start tonight.
SIDE: CALGARY FLAMES +1 (-135), SPRINKLE CALGARY ML (+130)
PLAYER PROP TOR:
- WILLIAM NYLANDER TO SCORE (+170)
William Nylander has been great as of late scoring four times in the last five games. With Tavares out, it has hurts Marners production. Nylander has Matthews centering him on the first line and is on the first Power Play unit. The Flames also allow the fifth most shots in the NHL.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: BSSO, NBCS-PHI
- Philadelphia Flyers: 6-3-2, 6th Metropolitan (3-1-1 Away)
- Carolina Hurricanes: 10-1-0, 1st Metropolitan (5-0-0 Home)
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +160 | +150 | +1.5 (-150) | o5.5 (-125) |
| Carolina Hurricanes | -180 | -170 | -1.5 (+130) | u5.5 (+105) |
The Flyers travel to Carolina after losing 3-0 to Toronto on Wednesday night. They were coming off three days a rest and we’re in a tough spot facing a vengeful Toronto team. Prior to that game, they had won three straight knocking off Washington, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. Carolina has been the best team in the NHL playing great in all aspects. They’ve gone through a gantlet the past few games facing Florida and Tampa Bay. However, they’ve had two days rest before they take on Philly.
The Flyers will begin a two game road trip tonight as they face Carolina tonight and Dallas tomorrow. After a tough 2020-21 season the Flyers have made improvements, specifically on defense. They rank 5th in goals allowed per game with 2.45 and have a -10.06 goals against above expected. Carter Hart has contributed to that stat line with a +6.4 GSAx through his first eight starts this season. He has been confirmed for tonight which should help Philly as they face one of the best offenses in the NHL.
Philadelphia’s offense hasn’t been anything to write home about this year. They’re tied for 16th in goals per game with 2.91. Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux lead the team with 12 points through 11 games. In their last five games they are only averaging one goal per game which won’t be enough to keep up with Carolina. Kevin Hayes is still out for a few weeks and is another key offensive component that they will want back as soon as possible. A guy that needs to step up for them is James van Riemsdyk who led the team in points last year but, only has five through the first eleven this year.
The Carolina Hurricanes are playing some great hockey. The Canes currently rank 3rd in the NHL in goals per game with 3.73. They also rank 2nd in goals above expected with a +2.98. Andrei Svechnikov has led the charge offensively for the Hurricanes with 15 points in eleven games. Carolina has been dominating opponents defenses besides their lone loss to Florida. They face a much improved Philadelphia defense that will try to take a page out of the Panthers playbook to slow them down.
On defense, the Hurricanes have been even better! They lead the NHL in goals allowed per game with 1.91 and are 4th in shots allowed. However, in their last few games the Hurricanes have been allowing more than that average. Carolina ranks third in goals against above expected, only behind the Kings and Flyers. The Hurricanes Penalty Kill ranks within the top 10 and has been much needed as Carolina is one the least disciplined teams in terms of penalty minutes. Frederick Anderson is the second best goalie in the league in terms of GSAx (+10.4) and is expected to start.
SIDE: CAROLINA HURRICANES (-170)
Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: SN1, MSG
- Edmonton Oilers: 10-2-0, 1st Pacific (4-1 Away)
- Buffalo Sabres: 5-5-2, 6th Atlantic (4-1-1 Home)
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Edmonton Oilers | -170 | -170 | -1.5 (+155) | o6.0 (+100) |
| Buffalo Sabres | +150 | +150 | +1.5 (-175) | u6.0 (-120) |
The Oilers travel to Buffalo for their third away game in the middle of their five game road stint. Last night, the Oilers upset the Bruins 5-3 after losing to Detroit on Tuesday. Buffalo on the other hand played their last game on Monday and will have had some time to recover. The Sabres will look to stop their five game losing streak against the Oilers who are in a tough spot.
Edmonton has been one of the best, if not the best team in the NHL this year. Their offense is red hot and leads the league in goals per game with an average of 4.18. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead the league in points with 23 a piece. McDavid continued his point-streak last night tallying at least a point in every game this season. Another highlight for the Oilers has been their Power Play which ranks 1st.
On defense they have haven’t been as great as their offense but, have been middle of the road. They currently rank 18th in goals allowed per game with 2.91. However, their Penalty Kill has been great killing off penalties at a rate of 87.1% (6th). Last night Mikko Koskienen started in net, who has been good this season with a +1.9 GSAx. It’s expected that Stuart Skinner will get the start vs Buffalo. He’s only played in one game this year where he gave up three goals in a loss to Detroit but had a +2.7 GSAx.
Buffalo had a hot start to the season but, has regressed tremendously losing five straight. In the first few games they looked much more energetic and have failed to bring that same energy as of late.
The Sabres are a very young team so not much is to be expected. Despite their struggles they still rank 15th in goals per game with 2.92. The loss of Victor Olofsson certainly hurt them as had 9 points through their first 8 games. He was downgraded to doubtful so it’s unlikely we’ll see him here. Their powerplay ranks 8th with a 25% conversion rate but, has been below average as of late converting on just 2 of their last 12 man advantages.
On defense they continue to struggle as well allowing an average of 3 goals per game. Just like their Power Play, their Penalty Kill has been struggling as of late. We’re still unsure of the starter as Craig Anderson may return from an upper body injury but, as of now it looks like Dustin Tokarski will get the start. Neither goalie has been that much better than the other as Anderson has a -1.4 GSAx, and Tokarski has a -0.8 GSAx through six starts a piece.
TOTAL: OVER 6.0 (+100)
PLAYER PROP EDM:
- LEON DRAISAITL TO SCORE (+100)
- CONNOR MCDAVID TO SCORE (+100)
In the Past 5 Games either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid have scored. Buffalo currently ranks 21st in goals allowed per game, and 19th in shots on goals allowed. While Buffalo’s PK is 5th, they haven’t been great as of late and face these two on Power Play 1.
PLAYER PROP BUF:
- TAGE THOMPSON TO SCORE (+300)
Tage Thompson has scored in two of three games. With Olofsson out, Thompson has been forced into a larger role. He moved to center under Don Granato and has played much better than last year. He faces an EDM team that allows the 9th most shots on goal. Thompson is also on the Sabres first Power Play unit.
Washington Capitals @ Columbus Blue Jackets
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: BSOH, NBCS-DC
- Washington Capitals: 7-2-4, 2nd Metropolitan (3-1-1 Away)
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 7-3-0, 5th Metropolitan (5-1-0 Home)
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Washington Capitals | -140 | -140 | -1.5 (+180) | o5.5 (-110) |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +120 | +120 | +1.5 (-220) | u5.5 (-110) |
The Washington Capitals take on Columbus after a 2-0 win in Detroit last night. The Caps had dropped three straight before winning against Buffalo on Monday and Detroit on Thursday. Columbus on the other hand is coming off five days of rest and will look to continue their three game win streak.
Washington has had one of the best offenses in the League this year led by none other than Alex Ovechkin. He currently has the third most points in the NHL with 21 only behind Draisaitl and McDavid (see above). The Caps are 5th in goals per game with 3.5 and lead the league in goals for above expected wit +5.6. Even with how well Washington’s offense has played, they are still without T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom, who led the team in points last season. Another name that flies under the radar is Anthony Mantha, who’s also currently out but, has had a solid start to the season.
The Capitals defense has been top 10 this season in goals allowed per game with 2.67. A main point of strength for Washington has been their ability to limit shots. They’ve also allowed the lowest amount of high danger shots against. Vitek Vanecek has been the starter for the Caps most of the year but is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to go, Ilya Samsonov will get the start. Samsonov has played in four games this year and hasn’t played all that great. He has a deceiving 3-0-1 record, with a .893 SV% and -2.3 GSAx.
Columbus has been solid as of late winning five of their last seven with their only losses coming to the Rangers and Hurricanes. They have the 11th most goals per game with an average of 3.1. Oliver Bjorkstrand leads the team with 13 points followed by Laine and Voracek. Laine will be out for tonight’s game as he’s still recovering from an oblique injury. The Blue Jackets have a -0.87 goals above expected which makes sense given their GPG. However, Columbus has a great shooting percentage which has been much needed given their limited shots on goal. This stat does worry me a bit because they will inevitably regress and need to generate more scoring opportunities to stay competitive.
The Blue Jackets haven’t been great on defense allowing the most shots against per game in the NHL. Despite this, they rank 14th in goals allowed per game with 2.8. The good news for the Blue Jackets is that they do have a -5.9 goals against above expected. However, this number is a direct factor to the play of their goalies . Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo have split time 60/40 but have both played very well to start the season. Merzlikins has a +6.6 GSAx and Korpisalo has a +2.5 GSAx. The starter has yet to be named but Merzlikins is expected to get the nod.
SIDE: COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (+120)
TOTAL: OVER 5.5 (-110)
PLAYER PROP CBJ:
- OLIVER BJORKSTRAND TO SCORE (+250)
- BOONE JENNER TO SCORE (+275)
Bjorkstrand has scored in three of his last five games. With Laine out, Bjorkstrand has stepped up and been productive. He is also plays on the first power play unit. Washington gives up the 2nd most shots on goal per game and ranks 21st in Penalty Kill %. Boone Jenner at +275 has also scored in two of the last three. Jenner plays with Bjorkstrand on the second line and on the first Power Play unit.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
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