Both teams are it a let down spot here. I think Washington’s let down is larger here because they beat the super bowl champs and Carolina beat a great team with a backup quarterback in the Cardinals. Now I’m not a big Cam Newton fan but he seems to always start well and he is really hyping this team up high. Washington has the better offense by some stretch of the imagination but Carolina has the much better defense here ranking 2 in opponent EPA per play. Carolina has a .4 net yard per play advantage, but Washington has had the much harder schedule so that number is close to a wash but losing Montez Sweat and Chase young will hurt Washington’s pass rush and in defending the screens to CMC. I think there is a much better path to victory with the Panthers than with the WFT.
Carolina – 3 – 2.5 stars
Indianapolis vs Buffalo -7 O/U 49
Ok My total number on this game was 48 but that was before the weather report was showing cold weather, high winds, and rain during the second half of this game. The Passing game should be a lot more limited here and the run game will be utilized. In saying that, the Bills rank number 1 in opponent rush EPA and the Colts rank number 3. On offense the Colts are number 2 in rush EPA per play while the Bills rank 14th. I am very concerned for Carson Wentz here if they get behind as the Bills rank number 2 in pressure rate. In saying that, this is a high spread for a weather compromised game so the under I think is the best play here.
Under 49 – 2 stars
6 PT Teaser – Cowboys to +8.5 with the Bears to +11 – 1.5 stars
The Sunday night Football Play of the Year Headlines, along with an Executive Level TIER 1, and the 100% AFC Top play going early. There is also the NBA Game of the week , NHL and more. Comp play below.
The NFL Comp play is on Carolina at 1:00 eastern. The Panthers fit 2 different systems here today one is to play on home favorites of 5 or less that are off a road dog win vs a team like Washington that is off a home dog win. Washington also fits a secondary play against system that goes against teams that are off a win vs a defending Super Bowl Champ. Carolina has covered 5 of 6 after allowing 150 or less pass yards and 5 of 7 off a win 14 or more. Carolina has covered 5 of 7 in the series and we will back then to get the cover today. The Sunday night Play of the year in NFL Action headlines along with an afternoon TIER 1, NBA and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the Comp play. Go with Carolina. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
LFG! I am due, you are due, and an Eagles win/cover is due. Week 11 is in for a rough one as we #BEATHEBOOK! Current NFL record: 87-60 +31.07 Units.
Home field has certainly not been an advantage for the Eagles this season. They are currently 5-5 ATS, but 1-3 ATS at home and 0-4 SU. That will change on Sunday!
Phi -2.5 (-120)
The dynamic presence of Jalen Hurts has proven to give defenses trouble this year. Not only has Hurts been getting it done on the ground, but is starting to take form through the air with a 67.5% completion percentage his last two games. We saw Hurts get his first NFL start against the Saints last season, upsetting them 24-21. This is a new season and Saints defense is certainly up to the task to learn from their mistakes last year. The key difference in this game is the Saints defense will be trying their best to contain Hurts vs. the Eagles defense completely shutting down Siemian.
Second week in a row for the Saints are without their dynamic play maker in Alvin Kamara. Now this week the Saints are without both their Left and Right starting offensive tackles. Simply put the Eagles defensive front should absolutely DOMINATE this match up and be in the face of Trevor Siemian all day. That constant pressure that will be exhibited will make for turnovers and short field starting possessions for the Eagles to work with. Darius Slay has been a MONSTER this season shutting down teams number 1 receivers week to week. I do not see how the Saints will effectively be able to move the ball consistently. Yes, they will be cute and try their gadget plays with Taysom Hill (if he plays)… it is just not sustainable throughout the course of this game. Saints offense will be flat, vanilla, and predictable. Mistakes will be made and the Eagles will capitalize. Fly Eagles Fly, the AINTS go stumbling home. Phi -2.5
Key Trends:
Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC South
Saints are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in NFC East
Happy Saturday all! We are back with 2 free premium play for you for today, 1 CFB, 1 CBB! We are 28-14 in our last 42 CFB plays and are off to a 11-6 start in CBB to begin the season! Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!
The top spot in the West Division of Conference USA is on the line in the Lone Star State on Saturday afternoon. The UAB Blazers are on the road as they head west to face the #22 UTSA Roadrunners . UAB comes in with a 7-3 record and off a 21-14 road upset of Marshall while UTSA is a perfect 10-0 after beating Southern Miss 27-17 at home last Saturday. The Blazers have won four of the five previous meetings between the schools, including a 21-13 home win in the most recent matchup on October 3, 2020. UAB’s offense is averaging 381 yards per game on 6.2 yards per play and are scoring 28 points per game while the Roadrunners are putting up 38.6 points on 446 yards per game at a clip of 6.2 yards per play. UAB prefers a slow paced game as they rank 126th in tempo and relies on their running game heavily by rushing on 63.9% of their plays. UTSA likes to speed it up ranking 46th in the nation in tempo and also runs the ball more than they throw at just over 56%. This should be a fun one as both teams come in with big play potential. UAB has the 3rd most plays of 30 yards or more (34) and UTSA ranks 33rd with 25 big plays. I realize that the Blazers don’t pass often, but when they do, they have the edge in the game. UAB is averaging 9.7 yards per pass and they will be up against a beatable UTSA secondary who gives up 7.8 yards per pass. The Blazer’s win this ballgame if they can sustain the run to set up the pass and continue with their big plays down the field. Take UAB +5
The #20 North Carolina Tar Heels and #7 Purdue Boilermakers meet this afternoon at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. Tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET. The Tar Heels have won all three of their games to date but haven’t really faced anybody of note so far. UNC topped Loyola-Maryland by 16, Brown by seven and won at Charleston by 11. They failed to cover in all three outings. The Boilermakers haven’t really faced high-caliber competition, either, but they have won all three of its games by 25 or more points against Bellarmine, Indiana State and Wright State. The Tar Heels are scoring 90.3 points per game and shooting 52.8% from the floor, however on defense, they are allowing more points than the opposition is averaging by 1 point, 2% from the floor and 3% more from beyond the arc. This will be a huge jump up in class for new head coach Hubert Davis and his UNC squad. Purdue enters the contest shooting 51.9% from the field, 41.7 from 3 and are scoring 94.7 points per game but the edge for the Boilermakers will come on the defensive side as they are limiting offenses to 62 points per game, 36.8% from the field and 26.1% from beyond the arc. According to KenPom, the Boilermakers rank 2nd in the nation is adjusted offensive efficiency and their defense is ranked 19th in adjusted efficiency. Purdue’s offense should be able to put up points against UNC’s 108th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency and although the Tar Heels have a top 20 offense, the Purdue defense should be able to limit them. Take Purdue -6.5
Sadly one of the most interesting matchups of the day can only be seen on ESPN+ at 2:30 pm today. The matchup between these two teams will essentially determine who wins the C-USA West division which UAB has owned. If UTSA wins, it’ll be their first trip to the C-USA championship and if UAB wins, it’s another victory for a program that almost was abandoned in 2015.
Last week, the score was misleading in UTSA’s win over Southern Miss as they had a late score to make that win look convincing. It wasn’t. Nonetheless, their defense kept them in that game and I expect their defense to play well again. The Roadrunners have the 6th rated rush defense and that’s the only real success UAB has had offensively.
The Blazers have shown the ability to get their pass game going and have showed out well in their last few road games, so the Blazers should cover this one. I’m heavier on the total. UTSA’s latest struggles, strength on defense and the Blazers ability to produce turnovers and slow down the pace with their run game… Hard to take in C-USA games but I’m on the UNDER 53.5 on this one…
We’re over the halfway point of the NFL season and this is where things get realllllyyy interesting before the playoffs. Steve and I are an illustrious 33-16-1 in Circa – let’s see if we can keep that train rolling this weekend! Don’t miss our official Circa plays post tomorrow morning. For now, here’s my favorite pick of the week!
For my premium picks delivered directly to your inbox every day, click here!
NFL Circa Plays: 33-16-1
NFL ATS Plays: 67-70
NBA ATS Plays: 55-42 (57%), +18 units
Colts/Bills under 49.5 (-115), 2 units: This is a VERY interesting game Sunday between two AFC contenders. The Bills are obviously the more publicly embraced team, heading into this year with high hopes and Super Bowl aspirations. They’ve stumbled in recent weeks but now they’re primed and ready to host the ascending Colts in Buffalo. The Colts started off a lot colder than many of us thought they would. Of course injuries to Carson Wentz, TY Hilton and other key players stifled an already shallow offense at the start of the year, but their defense has been keeping Indy in games. That hasn’t changed since they started improving on both sides of the ball. The Colts are mid-tier this year in points allowed and other standard defensive metrics, but they excel at taking away the ball and not turning it over themselves. That’s something Wentz has clearly worked on and as he settles in to Frank Reich’s system, a system he absolutely preferred in his years prior playing for Philly, Wentz is gaining confidence and making the throws that matter.
One area where the Colts defense needs to improve and improve fast is in the 4th quarter. Overall on the year they have a plus point differential, but in the 4th quarter they’re really letting teams have their way. Indianapolis is allowing 9.6 ppg in the 4th, compared to only 4.9, 5, and 2.6 ppg in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters. That’s not a good metric against a Bills team that loves to score their points at the end of halves (they average 8 ppg and 7.8 ppg in the 2nd and 4th quarters). The Colts’ defense needs to lock down and put forth full effort for an entire 60 minutes on Sunday. The Bills don’t need any help getting to the end-zone and if the Colts relent, the results won’t be favorable for the away team.
The Bills looked like their old selves in Week 10, shutting down the Jets on both sides of the ball and overwhelming them with the potent offense we expect. What most people aren’t talking about is how good they are on defense this year. The Bills lead the NFL in atonof defensive categories. Here’s just a few of them:
Points allowed per game
Yards allowed per game
Yard allowed per play
Opponent 3rd down conversion %
Opponent TDs per game
Opponent yards per pass
Turnover margin per game
And they’re top 5 in a bunch of other categories, too. This is a Bills team that should not be taken lightly on either side of the ball, and it’s reasonable to assume that Wentz and the improving Colts offense could easily come to an abrupt halt in this contest.
Lastly, the weather favors an under, too. The game-time forecast says we’ll see cold rain showers with 13-14 mph winds and crisp temperatures of 44-48 degrees. With an improving defense for Indy and arguably the best defense in the NFL geared up for a big AFC matchup in the blustery, tough conditions of Orchard Park, I can only bet on the under.
This game is interesting being that both teams are in trouble. These programs have 6 losses and have to win out to make a bowl game. I think that you will see some serious motivation here. Most of the time people think defense in this situation and that is why this line is so small, but it’s a bit too hard for me to get so low here. The Longhorns give up 32.5 points per game while the Mountaineers are at 24. Both defenses are in the bottom 89 in yards per play. This is in a big 12 conference that for some reason has some weaker offenses this year with apologies to Baylor. Texas at least is putting up 37.5 points per game at 6.44 yards per play. Texas, even with Bijan Robinson out, should be able to move the ball. West Virginia averages 25.7 points per game and 5.47 yards per play against a Texas defense that just gave up 57 points to Kansas and ranks 94th in success rate. I think this total is a bit too low for this game and I’ll grab the over.
Over 56.5 – 3 stars
Syracuse vs NC State -11.5 O/U 50.5
This is your classic overreaction and spot play handicap. Syracuse is coming off of a blow out loss at Louisville. They couldn’t get anything done this game but at least they played close games vs the best teams in the conference vs Clemson and Wake Forest only losing by 3 points and beat Virginia Tech and Boston College outright. NC State is coming off of a tough game vs Wake Forest but the game wasn’t only tough, it pretty much took them out of ACC contention unless Clemson beats Wake Forest this week and Wake loses their final game at Boston College which isn’t likely. Either way, I do not have Syracuse as that bad of a team this year and this number is wrong. Cuse is the much better rushing team at 5.5 yards per attempt to NC State’s 4.2. The Orange also has a nice positive .9 yards per play while NC State barley edges them out at +1.2. That is pretty close if you ask me. Syracuse is playing for a bowl game here being stuck with only 5 wins with Pittsburgh on deck afterword’s while NC State is playing the wait and see game. Take the Orange plus the points.
Syracuse +11.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech +10.5 O/U 56.5
How ugly do you want to get? Well, if you do some research in this game, it becomes not so ugly after all. Since the Red Raiders lost Tyler Shough, they have struggled at quarterback and had some bad losses but I think that they may have found something last week in Freshman Donovan Smith. He threw the ball quite well hitting 22 out of 35 passes at 322 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception against a tough Iowa State defense. I know that this team has a new football coach coming in for next year in Lubbuck, but I think that the players are playing hard for interim coach Sonny Cumbie. Now my power ratings has Oklahoma State winning by 7.75 points but we must not forget that the Pokes have Oklahoma on deck in a massive look ahead spot. Oklahoma State only has a .4 net yard per play advantage over Texas Tech and Tech has the more explosive offense. I am going to roll with the big home dog here and I think they could win this one outright.
Saturday the release of the highest Rated 7* College Football Game Of the Year headlines and is backed with a 100% Long term system. There is a Powerful 4 game Football card up and we also have a 6* Rare NBA Play and College Hoops. Comp Play below.
The Comp play today is on Syracuse plus the 11-12 points at 4:00 eastern. This game fits a game 11 specific System that pertains to dogs of more than 5 like Syracuse of they are taking on a team that has won 6 or more and lost more than 2 that are off a loss. These dogs have covered over 90% long term. NC. St has failed to cover 4 of 5 when laying more than 10 at home, they have failed to cover 9 of 12 in November games and 6 of 8 after scoring 40 or more. Syracuse has covered 6 straight off a loss, 7 of 8 in conference and 5 of 6 as a dog. In the series the dog has covered 6 of 8. Look for the Orange to cover. On Saturday we have our 20221 7* College Football Game of the Year headlining a big 4 game football card. There is a huge 6* Top Rated NBA Play with a 12-0 System and College hoops. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as there are plays going from noon to midnight. For the Comp play we will go with Syracuse +11 to 12 points. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We have another massive slate of NHL games on tap for today. There was originally 13 games scheduled to take place but, with Ottawa’s ongoing COVID-19 issues, only 12 are taking place. The biggest game of the night is the Minnesota Wild vs the Florida Panthers in a battle between first place teams.
Detroit Red Wings @ Arizona Coyotes
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Detroit Red Wings: 8-9-2, 4th Atlantic (3-7 Away)
Arizona Coyotes: 2-13-2, 8th Central (1-4-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Detroit Red Wings
-120
-140
-1.5 (+155)
o5.5 (+100)
Arizona Coyotes
+100
+120
+1.5 (-175)
u5.5 (-120)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit’s last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona’s last 10 games.
The Detroit Red Wings had a hot start to the season but, have regressed due to a 1-4 skid. They’ve lost their last three games being outscored 15-7. However, they face a struggling Coyotes team tonight where they look to turn things around. Arizona currently has the worst record in the league with just 6 points through 17 games.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings offense hasn’t been great this year with the third worst goals for above expected (-8.67). The good news for them is that they are generating a ton of chances with a 42.67 expected goals for. They also lead the league with 50 high danger shots for which is an encouraging sign. If they can take advantage of these scoring opportunities they should be able to get back on track. Lucas Raymond leads the team with 18 points through 19 games followed by Bertuzzi (17) and Larkin (15).
On the other side of the puck, Detroit has struggled causing most of their woes. They have a +2.47 goals against above expected meaning they are allowing more goals than the analytics have predicted. They’re 5th worst in the league in goals against per 60 with 2.76. Looking at the positives, they have only given up 25 high danger shots against. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to get the start for them after being traded by Carolina last year. He hasn’t been as great as he was last year with a -0.4 GSAx compared to the previous year of +9.6. Nedeljkovic relieved Thomas Greiss last game, who was pulled after two periods. He would go on to stop 9 of the 10 shots he faced in the third period.
Arizona Coyotes
The Yotes offense has been non existent to put it blatantly. They’re third to last in the league, averaging a measly 1.65 goals for per 60. They average the lowest number of shots on goal per game with 25.2. Arizona’s issues stem from the lack of chances created with just 17 high danger shots for. If Arizona was failing to capitalize on scoring chances it would be one thing but, they’re failing to generate any, which is even more concerning. Shayne Gostisbehere, a defenseman, leads the team in points with 13 through 17 games.
Arizona’s defense ranks worse than their offense which says something. They are currently giving up the most goals per game averaging 3.82 and have the 8th worst goals against per 60 (2.73). The Coyotes also have one of the leagues worst goals against above expected with a +6.27. The one encouraging sign for this defense is that have only allowed 21 high danger shots against. Scott Wedgewood is expected to get the start tonight. The Arizona Coyotes claimed the 29-year-old goaltender off waivers from the New Jersey Devils earlier this month. He has a +2.7 GSAx on the year and has been decent for the Coyotes in this first three starts despite the misleading record of 1-1-1.
PICK: DETROIT RED WINGS (-140)
PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-120)
In a battle between these two weak teams, the Red Wings have at least some analytics backing them. If they can find a way to take advantage of the chances they’re generating on offense they should get back on track. The Coyotes have one of, if not the worst defenses in the league which should benefit Detroit. The Under is in play due to the Coyotes lack of offense. They struggle to score on 5 on 5 situations and on the man advantage. I’m guessing a 3-1 win here for Detroit.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
