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Aqueduct Preview & Picks – G2 Red Smith Stakes – November 20, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
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The NYRA circuit is now onto Aqueduct Race Course for the Fall/ Winter meet. The racing season dies down a bit during the next few months so there won’t be as many “big” races. However, we do have one Grade II Stakes this week with the Red Smith Stakes taking place. This is the final graded turf stakes of the New York season for males. Check out my preview and picks below:

 

Red Smith Stakes

Race Information:

  • Track: Aqueduct (Queens, NY)
  • Event Grade: Grade II
  • Race: 9
  • Post Time: 3:43 PM
  • Length: 1 3/8 Furlongs
  • Purse: $200,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Upward
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Tide of the Sea Luis Saez Michael Maker 126 15-1
2 Value Engineering Dylan Davis Chad Brown 122 8-1
3 Soldier Rising (GB) Jose L Ortiz Christophe Clement 118 5-1
4 Serve the King (GB) Irad Ortiz Jr. Chad Brown 124 3-1
5 Shamrocket Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 124 6-1
6 Corelli Manuel Franco Jonathan Thomas 126 12-1
7 Channel Cat John R. Velazquez Jack Sisterson 126 4-1
8 Sanctuary City Ruben Silvera James Ferraro 122 20-1
9 No Word Jose Lezcano Todd Pletcher 122 8-1
10 Price Talk Eric Cancel Anthony Dutrow 122 8-1

 

Horse Preview:

(1) Tide of the Sea, a 5 year old Colt and son of English Channel has not had the same same success as his father did. He’s had 9 starts this year, competing in four G2 Stakes Races, failing to win any. His two wins this year came in the G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes and Japan Turf Cup Stakes. He got out to a lead early in his last race but, failed to close as he looked tired. In that race he was only coming off a few weeks of rest and will have a similar recovery period here which isn’t an encouraging sign.

(2) Value Engineering, a 5 year old Colt and son of Lemon Drop Kid has been in the money in all four of his starts this year (4-1-0-3). All four of those races have been Allowance Optional Claiming (AoC) races. He’s had some good speed figures in those races but, will lengthen out a bit here against some tougher competition. This will be his first Graded Stakes race so we’ll see how he handles the step up.

(3) Soldier Rising, a 3 year old Gelding has made the switch to the US Racing circuit earlier this year. He has raced six times this year, three times in Europe and three in the US. His first race in the States was back in August at Saratoga where he finished 2nd in the G1 Saratoga Derby. After that he finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Derby Inv. Stakes, and 5th in the G2 Hill Price Stakes. He struggled in the G2 Hill Prince Stakes getting forced wide after going off as the heavy favorite.

(4) Serve the King, a 5 year old Colt is the morning line favorite in this race at 3-1. This Colt has raced four times this year coming off a 2nd Place finish in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes. Out of those four races, his only win comes back August in the John’s Call Stakes at Saratoga. He’s used to longer distances on the Turf so he sets up well for this race given his past performances. Another thing to note is that his speed figures have significantly improved in his last two races which is encouraging.

(5) Shamrocket, a 4 year old Colt and son of Tonalist, has had 10 starts this year. He’s coming off a win in his last start in the Point of Entry Stakes at a similar distance. His other starts this year are highlighted by a 3rd place finish in the G2 Bowling Green Stakes and a 4th place finish in the G1 Man o’ War Stakes. Those have been the only two graded stakes races he’s entered so we’ll see if he can get his first win here.

(6) Corelli, a 6 year old Colt and son of Point of Entry has had six starts on the year. His best win comes back in August at Woodbine in the G3 Singspiel Stakes. He’s tried his luck in three other G3 Stakes but has failed to finish better than third. Corelli also entered in the G1 Pattison Canadian International Stakes in September but, finished 6th. He’s coming off a 4th place finish in the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes where he ran a 104 speed figure. I’m not sure how he’ll do here given his age and the class of horse’s he’s up against.

(7) Channel Cat, a 6 year old Colt and son of English Channel as well, has over a million dollars in career earnings. This 6 year old Colt is a big race horse competing in Graded Stakes races his last 17 starts. He’s gone winless in his last three starts with his last victory coming back on May 8th in the G1 Man o’ War Stakes. This Colt has struggled as of late not getting great trips but has still had solid speed figures in those races. He’s not in great form so we’ll see if he can grab a win here.

(8) Sanctuary City, a 4 year old Colt is a horse I really just don’t see competing here given the strength of the field. His only two wins this year come in AoC’s as he hasn’t much success in the G3 Stakes he’s entered. For me this horse is a toss.

(9) No Word, a 4 year old Colt, is another horse that I think won’t have much of an impact on this race. He’s not a front runner so he won’t have an impact on the pace and will struggle to compete down the stretch. Two races ago, he finished 2nd in the G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap which is a bit misleading as it was only a four horse field. His most recent race was the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes where he ran 6th behind Corelli.

(10) Price Talk, another 4 year old Colt is the son of Kitten’s Joy has some impressive pedigree. This will be his first Graded Stakes test after winning back to back races. This horse looks to be in great form but will be tested here. Another thing to note is that he’s coming off a two month layoff which could affect him. He’ll also lengthen out a it from his last two races but, will be well rested. This horse is certainly a factor given his form and recent speed figures.

 

Race Preview:

Front Runner(s): Tide of the Sea, Channel Cat

Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): Value Engineering, Serve the King, Sanctuary City, No Word

Closer(s): Soldier Rising, Shamrocket, Corelli, Price Talk

 

Picks:

WIN: 4 SERVE THE KING

This horse is in great form and is taking a class drop here so it’s hard tp stay away from the favorite. I’m hoping he stays around the 3-1 range before post time but it’s unlikely. Irad Ortiz stays on the irons after having two successful trips prior.

EXACTA: 4 / 2, 3, 10

Value Engineering has been in great form as of late with the only knock against him being his lack of experience. I’m not sure he’ll have enough to win this race but should be competitive. Soldier Rising is another horse that merits strong consideration with the drop in class. While he did struggle his last time out he seems to be stretching out to a more favorable distance here. Price Talk, like Value Engineering, doesn’t have the experience in grades stakes but has had impressive wins in his last two starts.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

College Basketball Friday Night – Free Picks

By
Shawn Knoche
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Made a nice recovery on college basketball after a rough start to the week. 9-10-1 overall on the season. 5 Total plays for me today. 2 Free picks here and 3 plays available to premium subscribers at Theoddsbreakers.com. Let’s get to the analysis.

Towson vs Pittsburgh (-6.5) O/U 132.5

Towson visits Pittsburgh on Friday evening boasting a 2-1 record coming off a 24 points win against Hampton. Prior to that they dropped an eight point decision to Monmouth and opened with a 21 point win against Albany. Pittsburgh is 1-2 to start the season and are also coming off a win, and 8 point victory over UNCW. They lost their first two games, by 15 points to West Virginia and 15 to The Citadel

Towson labored through multiple COVID stoppages last season on their way to a 4-14 campaign. They return three starters, but It’s almost an entirely new team with 7 new faces this year.  Four transfers are featured in the new rotation including three players who averaged over 10 ppg for their previous team. The best of which so far has been Cam Holden a UT-Martin transfer averaging 14.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG to start the season.

Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been sharp to begin the year. They return 4 starters from a team that went 10-12 last season. They have been trying to push the ball inside for close looks and hoping to get to the free throw line. To that end they have had some success, but it has come at a price as they only shot four 3 point field goals their last game. They are shooting 45% from the field (22.2% from distance) and while they have gotten to they line they have not taken advantage shooting 53.2% so far.  6’9″ 280Lb Sophmore Forward John Hugley is leading the way with 19 points per game and he should have success against a small Towson interior.

I see this as a game where Pittsburgh controls the glass and keeps Towson off the score sheet very similar to how their last match-up went with UNCW. The Panthers defense is the difference here. Gimme Pitt -6.5 for 1.5 Units

Ohio vs Kentucky (-12.5) O/U 150

The Ohio Bobcats visit Rupp Arena tonight to on the Kentucky Wildcats. The Bobcats come into the game with a 3-0 record with all three wins coming by double digits against Robert Morris, Cleveland State and Belmont. Kentucky is 2-1 with a season opening loss to Duke and 2 blowout wins against Robert Morris and Mt. St. Mary’s. Very unusual to have a common opponent this early in the season, but it does provide some insights.

Last year Ohio went 17-7 and was a No. 13 seed in the tourney. They lost star guard Jason Preston to the NBA, but return four experienced starters. Ohio comes into the game putting up 81.3 PPG at 44.5% from the field including an average of 12 3-Point FGs per game (38.3% from distance) They Bobcats go  6’5″, 6’8″, 6’8″ across the front line, but have rebounded the ball well so far with just over 11 Offensive boards per game. Sophomore guard Mark Sears leads thew scoring at 19.3 PPG in the early season.

John Calipari and the Wildcats look to retool after an awful 9-16 campaign last year. They have brought in their usual crop of talented freshman, but Coach Cal has also dipped into the transfer market this year to solidify some weaknesses. Kentucky has played well since the loss to Duke and are averaging 83.7 PPG in the early going. They are shooting 48.8% from the floor and 45.1% from distance. Junior Forward Oscar Tshiebwe a transfer from West Virginia leads the team in scoring at 18.7 PPG.

I’ll take a look at common opponent Robert Morris quick, but dont read too much into it as its always really about the matchup during the game youre looking at for me. Ohio took an 8 point lead into halftime and never looked back as it never got closer than 7 in the second half. This was their worst game from distance at 8 for 24, but they dominated on the offensive glass and only had 10 turnovers which lead to 14 more Field Goal attempts than Robert Morris. They won 85-71. Kentucky dominated the entire game against RMU winning by 40 points 100-60. They shot 57.1% (52.2% from distance) and out rebounded RMU 43-24.

Kentucky for the most part has been playing small, fast lineups, but I think they’ll go a little bigger tonight and we will see more of Freshman Forward Daimion Collins. They will try and out muscle the Bobcats on the inside and I see them being able to do so. Combine that with their talent edge at guard and I can see them running away in this one. I like the Wildcats to score and score often.

Taking Kentucky -12 for 2 Units

Week 12 CFB Free Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Entering Week 12, my CFB record sits at 81-60-1(57%), +28.8u this season. In addition these 4 free plays, I have reserved 7 plays for my premium members. Premium plays have hit at a 68% clip(69-32-1) and netted my members +51.45u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1u): Illinois/Iowa UNDER 38.5(-110)–Sat. 1 PM CT

We lost our bet on the Iowa/Minnesota Under last week at a similar number, but I’m not hesitating to go right back to the well this week. Illinois has seen each of their last 7 games stay under this 38.5 number. The Illini are about as vanilla of an offense you’ll see in CFB; given Iowa’s success at forcing INT’s this season, Bret Bielema might not ask QB Brandon Peters to throw more than a few times the whole game. While Iowa is almost guaranteed to hold Illinois’s offense in check, the Hawkeyes offense has some questions entering this game. QB Spencer Petras didn’t play last week due to injury; backup Alex Padilla is less efficient but provides more explosiveness through the air(which, relatively speaking, still isn’t very much). Kirk Ferentz doesn’t seem in much of a rush to insert Petras back in, but either way, I’m not sure how much of a difference it makes. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 24 PPG this season, and even then, the defense has fueled a lot of those points. RB Tyler Goodson has been a disappointment in the run game(4.3 YPC), and given the Illini feature a very good LB group, I don’t see that changing this week. Illinois is allowing just 17.5 PPG in Big10 play, and given their current form, I trust them in this matchup. I understand that it’s hard to take an Under at this low of a total, but it is the right way to go. 

*CFB(1u): Baylor/Kansas State UNDER 50(-110)–Sat. 4:30 PM CT

I’m a broken record at this point with my promotion of Kansas State Under’s, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Wildcats run the fewest plays/game in all of CFB, but even better, Baylor runs just 64.9 plays/game themselves, good for 119th out of 130 FBS teams. In other words, possessions in this game will be few and far in between. Given what each of these teams have shown defensively, I’m not expecting much offensive efficiency either. Baylor’s defense looked dominant against Oklahoma last week, yielding just 260 total yards and recording 5 sacks. The Bears defense has been great against the run all season, and I think they’ll be able to hold K-State RB Deuce Vaughn in check. K-State QB Skylar Thompson has had a great season, but he’s much more effective in a “game manager” role; if Vaughn is held in check, Thompson will be forced into some unfamiliar territory. Baylor’s offense has taken a step forward this season due to their run game; RB Abram Smith is averaging 144 yards/game over his past 4 games. However, QB Gerry Bohanon will need to make the necessary throws. Bohannon has good overall numbers this season, but his play has slipped in recent weeks(6 INT’s in last 4 games). Going up against what I would consider the best CB duo in the Big12, Baylor might play things more conservatively and try to avoid mistakes in this one. In any case, this Under has too much value for me to pass up.

*CFB(1u): Virginia Tech +7.5(-110) @ Miami–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

A lot will be made of Justin Fuente’s firing as justification for laying the points with Miami in this one, but I actually think the opposite could be true. We’ve seen teams band together after losing their HC this season, and the Hokies’ interim HC seems to be commanding more respect from the players than Fuente ever did. Additionally, that is a mute point considering Miami HC Manny Diaz is likely on the way out(the noise in Coral Gables has picked up quite a bit this week). Regardless, Miami is simply an overvalued commodity. QB Tyler Van Dyke had an unreal 3-4 game stretch, but as expected, he came back down to earth last week in a loss at Florida State. The Hurricanes often fail to establish the run and put a lot of pressure on Van Dyke to come through. If a heroic performance is required for your team to win, I’m going to play against you. Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister is a horrible passer and has limited options to work with on the outside, but he does provide value in the run game. Miami is soft defensively and can easily be run all over by this Hokie offense. While it did come against Duke, the 48 point performance by VT last week gives me a sliver of hope that they’ve turned a corner. This is simply many points to give Virginia Tech and a miscalculation of how the coaching dynamics affect this game; give me the points.  

*CFB(0.6u): Navy ML(+165) vs East Carolina–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

This could come back to blow up in my face, but I think this play is worth a shot. East Carolina is a veteran-laden team who won their 6th game of the season last week, qualifying ECU for their first bowl game in 7 seasons. Navy’s triple option offense requires a great week of practice in order to manage the unique style of play; there’s a chance that the “hangover” effect could be present in this matchup. Additionally, East Carolina hosts Cincinnati next week in their final home game of the season; given the Senior Day implications and opponent, I infer that the Pirates are probably looking ahead to that matchup and not paying an opponent like Navy the respect they deserve. The Midshipmen are just 2-7 this season, but they have played SMU, Houston, and Cincinnati to 1 score games and are plenty capable of stepping up to the plate on their Senior Day. I don’t stick to strictly motivational angles very often in football, but I thought this one was worth sharing. 

Week 12 CFB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Premium Plays: 69-32-1, +51.45u

*CFB(1.5u): UCLA -3(-120) @ USC–Sat. 3 PM CT

I have little doubt that UCLA is a better team than USC this season, but that alone can’t justify a multi-unit play, particularly in a rivalry game. However, as I broke this game down and considered how these teams matchup(players and coaches alike), I have a hard time seeing UCLA not cover this number. USC(4-5) has been a total train wreck this season; if you think they’ll get any sort of boost by playing at home, consider that they’re 1-3 at the Coliseum this season with those 3 losses coming by an average of 16 PPG. The Trojans will be without QB Kedon Slovis in this one and will turn the reins over to true freshman Jaxson Dart. I believe Dart is the more talented QB, but Slovis provides the edge in the experience department. Without star WR Drake London(who was virtually the entirety of USC’s WR production this season), Dart is going to be playing behind the 8 ball. RB Keontay Ingram has had a solid season, but UCLA is plenty capable of stopping the run and forcing Dart into obvious passing downs. I’ve been somewhat disappointed in UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson this season, but the Bruins offense is still very dynamic. DTR can excel with both is arm and his legs, and he has a steady pair of RB’s who should find some open running lanes to work with. USC has been torched defensively multiple times this season, and Chip Kelly vs Todd Orlando(USC defensive coordinator) is a total mismatch. Finally, it’s worth noting that UCLA held a comfortable 4th quarter lead in this game last season before yielding a last-ditch comeback to USC. There will be an emphasis on putting USC away from start to finish; give me UCLA. 

*CFB(1.5u): Florida/Missouri OVER 69(-110)–Sat. 3 PM CT

I wouldn’t overthink this one too much. Florida’s defense has totally crumbled down the stretch this season; they followed up a 40-17 loss to an inferior South Carolina team by allowing 52 points to FCS Samford last week. Whatever progress was made by the Gator defense earlier this season is now totally wiped away. Missouri is a very underrated offense; QB Connor Bazelak is back healthy and has been efficient through the air this season(68% completion), while RB Tyler Badie has run for 200+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The Tigers are averaging 31.5 PPG this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number increases after Saturday. Even with their disaster of a defense, Florida shouldn’t have too hard of a time putting up points in this game. Missouri has arguably the worst defense in the SEC; there is certainly no argument they have the worst run defense in the conference. Florida did put up 70 points last week and is settling in with the better option at QB(Emory Jones). Jones has quietly had a solid 2021 campaign(68.5% completion, 8.4 Y/A, 22 total TD’s), and he’s another guy I can trust because of his versatility. The Gators’ run game has been somewhat inconsistent, but like I said, Missouri is the worst run defense in the league; this should be a “get right” game for Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. 69 is a high total for an SEC game, but it’s both warranted and also not high enough. Give me the Over.

*CFB(1.5u): Oregon/Utah UNDER 59.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

After starting the season 1-2, Utah has won 6 of their last 7 and now find themselves in complete control of the Pac-12 South division. In all likelihood, we’ll see these teams square off again in two weeks for the Pac12 Championship. These teams match up pretty evenly, but I’m expecting a low-scoring game more than anything. Utah’s season turned around once they turned to Cameron Rising at QB; Rising’s numbers really aren’t all that special, but the one thing he’s brought to the table is ball security(just 2 INT’s this season). RB Tavion Thomas(6.1 YPC) has been the main catalyst of this Utes offense, but he won’t have an easy time matching up with an uber-talented Oregon front 7. Moreover, Utah lacks playmakers on the outside, which is why Rising is throwing for just 7.5 yards/attempt this season. The Utes have been able to rely on Thomas for chunk plays in the run game, but I don’t see that being a realistic path to victory in this matchup. Oregon is built somewhat similarly to Utah offensively; Anthony Brown isn’t asked to be a gunslinger. While the Ducks are great on the OL, their run game has slipped up a bit since losing RB CJ Verdell for the season. Travis Dye was great in a complementary role, but he has been somewhat disappointing since seeing his usage increase. Utah’s LB’s are their strength on defense, and I expect them to keep the Oregon running game in check. The Ducks have the advantage on the outside, but I simply can’t trust Brown to make the necessary downfield throws consistently enough. This game has Under written all over it.

*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma State/Texas Tech UNDER 56.5(-110)–Sat. 7 PM CT

Unlike past Mike Gundy-coached teams, Oklahoma State has been led by their defense this season. Giving up just 16.4 PPG this season, I would consider the Cowboys a top 5 defense in all of CFB. Texas Tech isn’t overly reliant on the run game, but it is important for them to establish the run(as it is with almost every other team). I expect them to have little-to-no success in that department, forcing the game solely into the hands of QB Donovan Smith. Smith looked brilliant in Tech’s upset win over Iowa State last week, but in what will be just his 4th college appearance, I’m not willing to trust him in this matchup. Oklahoma State is usual very good offensively, but that’s just not the case this season. QB Spencer Sanders is very inconsistent(61.7% completion, 7.7 Y/A), forcing the Cowboys to tap into their running game quite often. The one saving grace of the Red Raider defense is their LB unit; Texas Tech has gotten torched by dynamic offenses this season, but have held up fairly well in the running game when the threat of the pass is not overly intimidating. I’ll call this a 28-17 OSU win and, more importantly, a comfortable winner on the Under. 

*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Houston -2.5 vs Memphis AND Oregon +9 @ Utah(-110)–FRIDAY 8 PM CT

Houston(9-1) will honor their seniors tonight in their final home game of the season; with a game at UCONN on deck, the Cougars realize how close they are to the “finish line”, also known as the chance to knock off Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game. With that in mind, you can expect a full-fledged effort from the home team tonight. Since throwing 4 INT’s in Week 1 against Texas Tech, Houston QB Clayton Tune has thrown just 2 INT’s and boasts a respectable 8.4 Y/A. The Houston defense has won the battle of the trenches more often than not this season, and I expect them to get some pressure on Memphis QB Sean Henigan tonight. While the Tigers are better than their 5-5 record indicates, I struggle to see them knocking off a motivated Houston team tonight.

I broke the Oregon/Utah game down above in more depth, but I’ll just reiterate that these 2 teams match up very evenly. Because Utah is limited on the outside and faces a tough test with the Oregon defense, I don’t see them winning this game by multiple possessions. This is a true toss-up game, so I’ll tease the Ducks to +9 and watch a spirited battle on Saturday night(in addition to the Under). 

*CFB(1u): Wake Forest +4.5(-110) @ Clemson–Sat. 11 AM CT

I’ve said this all season, and I’ll once again reiterate that Clemson’s past success is often built into their lines. With a 10 game sample size, this team has been proven to be overvalued all season long; I still don’t see enough adjustment from the oddsmakers in this one. QB D.J Uiagalelei is absolutely atrocious(55% completion, 5.8 Y/A, 8:7 TD/INT), and I don’t expect him to suddenly flip a switch in Game 11. Will Shipley has been a godsend at RB for the Tigers, but even so, they’re averaging less than 20 PPG against Power 5 competition this season. Wake Forest is vulnerable defensively, but against a stagnant offense like Clemson’s, I expect the Demon Deacons to be up to the test. From there, WF QB Sam Hartman should be able to take control of this game. Hartman isn’t the most efficient QB, but his knack for the big throw is undeniable(9.1 Y/A, 30 passing TD’s in 2021). Wake Forest is built very similarly to Pitt offensively; the Panthers showed the blueprint on how to beat the Clemson secondary, and I think Hartman and the Deacons will only build on that. I expect Wake Forest to win this game outright, but I will stick with the +4.5 given this game is on the road in a hostile environment.

*CFB(1u): TCU -21(-110) vs Kansas–Sat. 3 PM CT

Full disclosure: I am an avid Texas Longhorns fan; it’s why I’ve never given out a play in a Texas game. I was at the Kansas/Texas game last week and have obviously lived down the aftermath of that brutal loss. From what I’ve gathered, Texas’ defensive gameplan was so incompetent that it was almost laughable. Kansas was averaging just 10.6 PPG in Big12 play last week before dropping 56 on my Longhorns. I say all that to say this: I think any competent defensive coordinator will hold Kansas and their 1 page playbook in check. The proof is there. TCU isn’t great defensively, but they should be competent enough to hold the Jayhawks in check on Saturday. From there, TCU QB Chandler Morris has shown tons of flash in his young career and should be poised for a career day against a defense that is yielding 44 PPG this season. The Jayhawks spent all week celebrating the Texas win and making Applebee’s commercials(yes, I’m being serious); this team does not know how to handle winning, so as a result, I expect them to get steamrolled in Fort Worth on Saturday.

Premiums 11.19 and NFL/CFB Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hell of a night going 3-0 in the NBA and 2-0 in CBB. Why am I even betting on the NFL anymore? Good God it’s frustrating — the spot was 10x better for Atlanta.

Here are today’s plays and my NFL/CFB Plays as well, let’s go!
NBA Tonight: 
  • Lakers ML **
  • Nets -12.5 **
  • Mavs/Suns over 211.5 *
CFB Week 12:
  • Nevada (tonight) +1 **
  • Michigan St. +19 **
  • Illinois/Iowa under 38.5 *
  • Georgia Tech +17.5 *
  • Alabama -21 **
  • SMU +11.5 **
  • Oregon ML **
NFL Week 11:
  • Ravens -4.5 *
  • Browns -11.5 **
  • Packers -1.5 **
  • Texans +10.5 ***
  • Colts +7.5 **
  • Colts/Bills under 49.5 ***
  • WFT +3.5 **
  • Bengals -1 **
  • Cowboys ML **
  • Seahawks win **
  • Giants +11 **
  • Parlay of the Week: Ravens + Browns + Niners (1 unit to win 1.35 units)

NHL Preview & Picks – November 19, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
-

We’re 5-1 in the NHL on the week and look to be turning things around after a slow start. There’s only two games happening in the NHL and both are out west. The Jets travel to Vancouver to take on the Canucks and Colorado faces off against the Kraken. Check out my preview and picks below.

 

Colorado Avalanche @ Seattle Kraken

  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Colorado Avalanche: 7-5-1, 5th Central (3-3 Away)
  • Seattle Kraken: 4-11-1, 8th Pacific (3-5 Home)
Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Colorado Avalanche -160 -155 -1.5 (+155) o6.0 (-110)
Seattle Kraken +130 +135 +1.5 (-175) u6.0 (-110)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado’s last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle’s last 7 games.

 

The preseason favorite Colorado Avalanche face off against the NHL’s newest expansion team. The Av’s have had a less than ideal start to the season with just a 7-5 record. Despite their rough start, they’ve rattled off three dominating wins in a row outscoring opponents 17-5. The Kraken are in the middle of a six game homestand losing their first three games. They don’t look to have a break anytime soon facing Colorado tonight with the Capitals and Hurricanes coming up.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have seemed to have found their groove even with missing several key pieces. Colorado is still without superstar Nathan MacKinnon who’s out indefinitely with a lower body injury. In addition to MacKinnon the Avalanche have several other key players injured including J.T. Compher (upper body), Bowen Byram (concussion), Martin Kaut (shoulder), and Stefan Matteau (leg).

Colorado has averaged 5.67 goals per game during this three game stretch which is 2.13 goals above their season average (3.54). Nazem Kadri continues to stay hot extending his point streak to seven games. Their Power Play has also been great as of late going 6-13 during this recent win streak.

Their defense has also been much better as of late allowing 1.67 goals against in their last 3 games. To be fair, they have played the Vancouver Canucks twice during that stretch who are on a 5 game losing streak. Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start tonight against the Kraken. Kuemper replaced Phillip Grubauer this year, who is expected to start for the Kraken, and has not lived up to expectations. He enters the game with a -1.1 GSAx but like the Avalanche, have been better recently.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken have struggled as of late losing their last 5 games being outscored 24-14. The Kraken are averaging 2.75 goals per game on the year and have remained around that number despite the losing streak. Seattle has generated 35 high danger shots for which is middle of the road but have a -1.65 goals for above expected. This indicates that they are failing to convert on these opportunities slightly below expected.

Defensively the Kraken rank second to last in the league in goals allowed giving up an average of 3.69 goals per game. Seattle has the leagues worst goals against above expected by far which has contributed to their struggles. Phillip Grubauer who has taken the main responsibility in net after Chris Driedger suffered an early season injury. He has the league worst goals saved above expected with a -14.0 through his 13 starts. Grubauer is expected to get the nod against his old team which can hopefully turn things around for him.

 

PICK: OVER 6.0 (-110)

PICK: COLORADO TO WIN IN REGULATION (-110)

The Avalanche’s offense is finally clicking on all cylinders going up against a struggling Kraken defense. While Grubauer does have a revenge angle here, I still believe in the Avalanche’s ability to score.

 

Winnipeg Jets @ Vancouver Canucks

  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Winnipeg Jets: 9-3-4, 3rd Central (2-2-3 Away)
  • Vancouver Canucks: 5-10-2, 7th Pacific (2-5-1 Home)
Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Winnipeg Jets -120 -125 -1.5 (N/A) o6.0 (+100)
Vancouver Canucks +100 +105 +1.5 (N/A) u6.0 (-120)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg’s last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Vancouver’s last 12 games against Winnipeg.

 

The Jets enter this game after a shootout loss to the Oilers last night. Before that loss, they rattled off three wins outscoring opponents 12-5. Vancouver is currently on a five game loss streak that includes two losses to Colorado and Anaheim. They have faced some very hot teams as of late but, will have had an extra day off in this matchup.

Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg travels to Vancouver off a back to back vs Edmonton where they split a home and home. They are also coming off no days rest which is a factor that needs to be considered. This will be the first game of the year that they have played off no days rest so we’ll see how they handle this spot.

The Jets have been solid offensively averaging 3.19 goals per game with a -0.77 goals for above expected. Despite their inability to capitalize, they have generated the third most high danger shots for with 33. Winnipeg lost Bryan Little for the season after suffering a concussion in the preseason which led to complications. Paul Stastny has also been declared out for tonight’s game.

On defense Winnipeg has been great only allowing 1.67 goals against per 60. They also only have a -10.61 goals against above expected which is fourth best in the league. However, despite these great stats they are allowing 33 high danger shots against. Eric Comrie is expected to get the start tonight after Connor Hellebuyck started last night. Comrie has been good this year in this four starts with a +3.1 GSAx and 1.98 GAA.

Vancouver Canucks

The Nucks’ have been a rough stretch as previously mentioned but have had to go against some hot teams. They are in a great spot to turn it around here with the Jets coming off a hard fought game last night.

Offensively, Vancouver hasn’t been great with a -2.09 goals for above expected. They rank near the bottom of the league in shooting % highlighting their inability to convert on scoring chances. Their Power Play has also been a mess ranking 27th in the league going 1-15 in their last 5 games. J.T. Miller leads the team with 18 points while Quinn Hughes is behind him with 14.

Vancouver’s defense hasn’t been much better ranking 27th in the league giving up an average of 3.38 goals per game. Their penalty kill has also been atrocious ranking dead last in the league. To the Canucks credit, they do have a -5.16 goals against above expected, meaning they have allowed less goals than what was expected. Thatcher Demko, is expected to get the nod tonight. Despite the Canucks defense failing to provide much support, he only has a -0.9 GSAx.

 

PICK: VANCOUVER CANUCKS (+105)

Vancouver should have won their last game vs Colorado but Quinn Hughes took a stupid penalty that wound up costing them the game. The Jets are coming off a tough game last night against a rival and face a hungry Canucks team.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Prop Play

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
@theoddsbreakers

#thursdaynightfootball #Freepicks #freeplay #thursdaynightfootball #patriotsfootball #falconsfootball

♬ NFL On FOX Theme – Slumber Girlz U Rock

NBA Free Pick: 76ers at Nuggets – November 18, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
-
Jokic

 

The reeling 76ers head to Denver to face the fiesty defense of the Nuggets– check out what bet I’m on below!

For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NFL Circa Picks: 33-16-1
NFL ATS Picks: 67-70
NBA ATS Picks: 51-40, +16.02 units

76ers/Nuggets under 209.5, -110 (2 units): Yeeaaa this total it too high. The 76ers travel to Denver after losing their last 5 games. Part of this is not having Embiid in the lineup, but this is also a Philadelphia team that’s over-worked and running out of steam in general. Last time we saw the 76ers they were getting blown out 2 nights ago in Utah; now they have to take on a Denver team coming off 3 days of rest.

This game sets up perfectly for Nikola Jokic to methodically control the game. With Embiid out, Andre Drummond (who’s actually played really well) will take on the load of defending the big man for most of this contest. While Drummond has been a great contributor on both sides of the court, he can’t play all 48 minutes. The 76ers are depleted– no Simmons, no Danny Green, no Thybulle, and as we know, no Embiid. Nikola Jokic and the efficient Nuggets offense (they’re top 10 in effective field goal %, points in the paint, and assists per game) can take their time and drain the 76ers defense. And that’s good; they love taking their time. The 76ers are Nuggets are the slowest teams in the NBA, ranked 29th and 30th, respectively. Additionally, no team allows less points per game than Denver (98.9), and over their last 8 home games they’re only permitting an outstanding 93.6 ppg. I don’t expect that to change tonight against an exhausted Philadelphia squad.

The 76ers are in a horrendous spot, they’re injured, and the Nuggets can coast into this game while they await a tough opponent in the ascending Chicago Bulls tomorrow night. The only way for me to look at this game is the under– take it with confidence.

NCAAM Quick Hits

By
Kristobal Lundborg
-

Busy day in Men’s college basketball for sure. Here are some games I like tonight, keeping it small in the beginning of the season for the most part. Generally, I tend to take plays I like where the market agrees in the beginning of the season if I can’t get the early lines.

717 EMU +8.5 (-105) v 718 NKENT- 0.52u

Probably the smelliest of all the lines on the board tonight, but this line is moving towards Eastern Michigan which quells my fear of some roster information that I’m unaware of. Simply put, Northern Kentucky is typically a slower paced team that has had great success from 3 point range thus far this season with 33% of their scoring from beyond the arc. Eastern Michigan, who struggled against ILL ST recently but had a decent outing against Indiana, is 46th in the country vs the 3 pointer thus far. That  may be a credit to neither of their first two opponents being particularly good from range, but it also indicates they aren’t leaving those guys unchecked. Eastern Michigan also will have a size advantage which should help them on the defensive side. Give me EMU +8.5!

739 SJST +10 (-110) v 740 CALBAP- 1.1u

I understand lots of people high on Cal Baptist again this season, but they haven’t played anyone yet, with their strength of schedule at 352nd in the country. San Jose State meanwhile is towards middle of the pack at 181st. There are concerns about the Spartans ability to score for sure, but we saw this team step it up towards the end of last season. This line hasn’t budged but has the majority of money with me, I like SJSU +10.

306805 MORGST +10 v 306806 SEA- 0.55u

Seattle U has looked better since the weird firing of their coach in their last one, but I’m concerned with this teams’ ability to stretch the lead in this one against a Morgan State team that can score. Morgan State wants to run which pushed the total out of reach, but I like this squad to keep it close. Their blowout loss against a good George Mason team and the long trip is keeping me from a big play, but I still like this team that made a run thier conference towards the end of last season. Sharp Betonline line already has this one down to +9.5.  Take Morgan State here and sprinkling the money line.

Free CBB Pick with Analysis for Thursday, November 18th

By
Nick Hub
-

Hey guys! We are off to a 8-4 start in CBB to begin the season! I have 2 premium CBB plays for today so far and this was one of them when the line was +6.5.  Another benefit of signing up for my premium plays below!  Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!

Get all of my CFB, CBB and MLB Premium Plays HERE 

The #22 St. Bonaventure Bonnies and the Boise State Broncos square off in the Charleston Classic this afternoon looking to advance to the winners bracket.. The Bonnies have opened the season 2-0 with wins over Siena and Canisius and Boise State is 1-1 and looking to bounce back from a 58-50 loss at UC Irvine. The Bonnies have shot 46.8% from the field and scored 72 points per game against defenses allowing 48.6% from the field and 78.2 points per game. On Defense, they have been stout by allowing only 53.5 points per game but that was against teams averaging 60.3 points on offense. The Broncos have the better strength of schedule and have shot 42.1% against defenses allowing 39.1% from the field and their defense could be the story of the game giving up only 57 points against opposing offenses averaging 73.3 points per game. St. Bonaventure could be missing star center Osun Osunniyi. He leads all active players in blocks, averaging 2.72 per game, is the leading rebounder and a double-digit scorer. We’d forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Boise State (120th in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while St. Bonaventure (337th) is content with slowing down the gameplay, according to Haslametrics. This seems like a good spot for Boise State, especially if Osunniyi is out. The Broncos, like St. Bonaventure, have five seniors in their starting lineup, so I am expecting a bounce back game here. Additionally, the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Boise State +4.5

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