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Breeders’ Cup Preview & Picks (Races 4-12)- November 6, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
-

The greatest day in racing is finally here with Breeders’ Cup Saturday. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the main event of the day which goes off at 5:40 PM. All races can be seen on NBCSN and NBC.

 

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 4
  • Post Time: 12:05 PM
  • Length: 7 Furlongs
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6), Daily Double / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Proud Emma F. Prat P. Miller 124 20-1
2 Estilo Talentoso J. Ortiz J. Arriagada 124 12-1
3 Edgeway J. Rosario J. Sadler 124 12-1
4 Ce Ce V. Espinoza M. McCarthy 124 4-1
5 Gamine J. Velazquez B. Baffert 124 3-5
6 Bella Sofia L. Saez R. Rodriguez 124 5-2

 

Race Preview:

PROUD EMMA enters the race coming off some woes in G2 and G3 races. I don’t really see this mare having a shot in this race. ESTILO TALENTOSO has one win under her belt this year coming back in a G3 Stakes race in June. Since then she has yet to find the winners circle in the past three races. EDGEWAY has won three of her four starts this year, with the only loss coming to GAMINE. CE CE is coming off a win in a G3 Stakes but lost to GAMINE in a race prior. GAMINE is the morning line favorite and has only lost one race in her ten career starts. She’s undefeated this year and hasn’t lost to any of the other entrants. BELLA SOFIA is 5-4-1 in her career and will be the main competitor to GAMINE. This horse won the G1 Test Stakes at the Spa in August. In her only second place finish she had a bad trip.

Picks:

WIN: 6 BELLA SOFIA

 

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 5
  • Post Time: 12:40 PM
  • Length: 5 Furlongs
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Daily Double, All Turf Pick 4 (Races 5-7-9-11) / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Glass Slippers (GB) T. Eaves K. Ryan 123 6-1
2 Emaraaty Ana (GB) A. Atzeni K. Ryan 126 5-1
3 Golden Pal I. Ortiz, Jr. W. Ward 124 7-2
4 Lieutenant Dan G. Franco S. Miyadi 126 6-1
5 Arrest Me Red J. Velazquez W. Ward 124 12-1
6 A Case of You (IRE) R. Whelan A. McGuinness 124 8-1
7 Charmaine’s Mia F. Prat P. D’Amato 123 30-1
8 Caravel J. Ortiz H. Motion 123 20-1
9 Kimari J. Rosario W. Ward 123 6-1
10 Gear Jockey J. Lezcano G. Arnold, II 126 5-1
11 Fast Boat T. Gaffalione J. Sharp 126 12-1
12 Extravagant Kid R. Moore B. Walsh 126 12-1

 

Race Preview:

GLASS SLIPPERS won the G1 BC Turf Sprint at Keeneland back in November of last year but has yet to find the winners circle since. EMARAATY ANA has won two of her past three starts including the G1 Betfair Sprint Cup in her last out. The switch back to Atzeni on the reigns has seemed to make a positive impact. GOLDEN PAL seems to be in great form as well. Irad Ortiz Jr has won his past three races aboard this colt. He won he G2 BC Juvenile Turf Sprint last year. LIEUTENANT DAN is undefeated this year that includes a G2 and G3 Stakes race. In his last three races he’s shown some impressive speed figures, Franco will remain on the mount. ARREST ME RED seems to have improved with the switch to shorter distances last year and will look to capture his first G1 Stakes. A CASE OF YOU gets shipped in after winning a G1 Sprint in France. KIMARI is off a slight layoff from her last race where she won the G1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland. GEAR JOCKEY has posted some great speed figures but will face some steeper competition from her last win in a G3 Stakes. Some wildcards this race include FAST BOAT whos had some iffy races as of late and EXTRAVAGANT KID.

Picks:

WIN: 2 EMARAATY ANA 

EXACTA PART WHEEL: 2,4,1/ 3

 

Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (yes that’s the name)

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 6
  • Post Time: 1:19 PM
  • Length: 1 Mile
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Daily Double, Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Silver State R. Santana, Jr. S. Asmussen 126 7-2
2 Pingxiang Y. Kawada H. Mori 126 12-1
3 Ginobili D. Van Dyke R. Baltas 126 4-1
4 Jasper Prince Y. Fukunaga H. Mori 126 30-1
5 Life Is Good I. Ortiz, Jr. T. Pletcher 126 4-5
6 Restrainedvengence E. Maldonado V. Brinkerhoff 126 20-1
7 Snapper Sinclair J. Rosario S. Asmussen 126 12-1
8 Eight Rings J. Hernandez B. Baffert 126 10-1

 

Race Preview:

SILVER STATE, one of the m/l favorites will try to find the winner’s circle again after failing to in her previous two races. In those races he finished 2nd and 3rd but faced some tough competition. He should fare much better against this field. PINGXIANG comes over from Japan where he’s fresh off back to back stakes wins. GINOBILI has historically been a sprinter but faired well in his lone race at a Mile this year. However, it must be noted, that race was a $40k AoC. LIFE IS GOOD is the favorite and has won three of her four starts this year. Her only second place finish comes to Jackie’s Warrior in a G1 Stakes back in August. EIGHT RINGS again was historically a sprinter but lengthened out in her last race and won. We’ll see if he’s up for the challenge again with a better class of horses. Two very live wildcards in this race are RESTRAINEDVENGENCE and POCKET SQUARE.

Picks:

WIN: 1 SILVER STATE

EXACTA PART WHEEL: 1, 2, 3, 6/ 5

 

Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 7
  • Post Time: 1:59 PM
  • Length: 1 3/16 Miles
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double, Pick 6 (Races 7-8-9-10-11-12) / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Going to Vegas U. Rispoli R. Baltas 124 12-1
2 Pocket Square (GB) I. Ortiz, Jr. C. Brown 124 15-1
3 Acanella (GB) C. Keane G. Lyons 120 12-1
4 Rougir (FR) M. Guyon C. Rossi 120 6-1
5 Queen Supreme (IRE) J. Doyle A. Balding 124 20-1
6 Love (IRE) R. Moore A. O’Brien 124 4-1
7 War Like Goddess J. Leparoux W. Mott 124 7-2
8 Loves Only You (JPN) Y. Kawada Y. Yahagi 124 4-1
9 My Sister Nat (FR) J. Ortiz C. Brown 124 15-1
10 Ocean Road (IRE) O. Murphy H. Palmer 120 20-1
11 Dogtag F. Prat R. Mandella 124 30-1
12 Audarya (FR) W. Buick J. Fanshawe 124 5-1

 

Race Preview:

GOING TO VEGAS is coming off a G1 win in the Rodeo Drive Stakes and a G2 win in the John C. Mabee Stakes. POCKET SQAURE won a G3 Stakes in her last out but struggled in a G1 earlier this year. ROUGIR gets shipped in from France where she looked impressive in a G1 win her last start. LOVE is another overseas horse who has looked impressive in the past but struggled to find the winners circle after capturing her first G1 Stakes win in June. WAR LIKE GODDESS has been lights out as of late winning her last four races which includes a G1, G2 and two G3 Stakes wins. LOVES ONLY YOU comes over from Japan where’s she had success and won multiple stakes races, certainly a contender. AUDARYA hasn’t closed well in her past two races and was bested by ROUGIR her last time out.

Picks:

WIN: 7 WAR LIKE GODDESS

EXACTA BOX: 1, 6, 7 

 

Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 8
  • Post Time: 2:38 PM
  • Length: 6 Furlongs
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Daily Double, Pick 5 (Races 8-9-10-11-12) / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Following Sea J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 124 6-1
2 Jackie’s Warrior J. Rosario S. Asmussen 124 6-5
3 C Z Rocket F. Geroux P. Miller 126 12-1
4 Matera Sky Y. Kawada H. Mori 126 20-1
5 Aloha West J. Ortiz W. Catalano 126 8-1
6 Firenze Fire T. Gaffalione K. Breen 126 10-1
7 Lexitonian J. Lezcano J. Sisterson 126 20-1
8 Special Reserve I. Ortiz, Jr. M. Maker 126 6-1
9 Dr. Schivel F. Prat M. Glatt 124 4-1

 

Race Preview:

FOLLOWING SEA enters this race off a first place finish in a G2 Stakes and two 3rd place finishes in G1 Stakes. JACKIE’S WARRIOR has won four start which includes two G1 and two G2 Stakes. He’s the horse to beat in this race, especially given his form. CZ ROCKET has been close but failed to find the winners circle as of late. This 7 year old gelding has been beaten by DR. SCHIVEL two out of his last three starts. ALOHA WEST finished 2nd in the G2 Pheonix Stakes to SPECIAL RESERVE his last time out. FIRENZE FIRE certainly has been close but again another horse who has failed to find the winners circle as of late. His last win comes back in a G2 Stakes at Belmont in June. SPECIAL RESERVE has been impressive as of late with his only loss coming to LEXITONIAN in the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes. Besides that, he has yet to finish worse than 2nd in his past five stakes races. DR. SCHIVEL is undefeated on the year and is coming off a G1 and G2 Stakes win.

Picks:

WIN: 2 JACKIES WARRIOR

 

FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 9
  • Post Time: 3:20 PM
  • Length: 1 Mile
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) / Daily Double, Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12) / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Master of The Seas (IRE) J. Doyle C. Appleby 123 12-1
2 Smooth Like Strait U. Rispoli M. McCarthy 126 10-1
3 Space Blues (IRE) W. Buick C. Appleby 126 3-1
4 Raging Bull (FR) I. Ortiz, Jr. C. Brown 126 15-1
5 Vin de Garde (JPN) Y. Fukunaga H. Fujiwara 126 20-1
6 Mo Forza F. Prat P. Miller 126 5-1
7 In Love (BRZ) A. Achard P. Lobo 126 8-1
8 Hit the Road J. Velazquez D. Blacker 126 15-1
9 Mother Earth (IRE) R. Moore A. O’Brien 120 8-1
10 Blowout (GB) J. Rosario C. Brown 123 8-1
11 Got Stormy T. Gaffalione M. Casse 123 10-1
12 Pearls Galore (FR) B. Lee P. Twomey 123 12-1
13 Casa Creed J. Alvarado W. Mott 126 15-1
14 Ivar (BRZ) J. Talamo P. Lobo 126 12-1

 

Race Preview:

SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT has been impressive as of late but has failed to beat the current favorite, MO FORZA in the past two races. SPACE BLUES gets shipped in from across the pond and has won a G1 and G2 Stakes in his last two starts. MO FORZA has won both his starts this year but hasn’t really had great trips in either. If he gets a clean race here he may win this for fun. IN LOVE has lost to SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT and MO FORZA his last two times out and looked to be a class behind. MOTHER EARTH has raced pretty well this year despite only having two wins. This three year old filly has faced some steep competition in G1 Stakes and has held her own in most. BLOWOUT is coming off a G1 Stakes win but prior to that, lost in the G1 4StarDave to GOT STORMY. Speaking of GOT STORMY, this horse hasn’t looked great besides in that race. However, she does prefer to run at a distance and has looked better when lengthened out to a Mile. PEARLS GALORE comes in from France but I’m not sure why she’s not in a sprinting race. This horse seems to perform better when running in a sprint.

Picks:

WIN: 6 MO FORZA

EXACTA BOX: 1, 6, 10

 

Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 10
  • Post Time: 4:00 PM
  • Length: 1 1/8 Miles
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12) / Daily Double / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Private Mission F. Prat B. Baffert 121 8-1
2 Royal Flag J. Rosario C. Brown 124 8-1
3 Malathaat J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 121 4-1
4 Blue Stripe (ARG) L. Dettori M. Polanco 124 30-1
5 Clairiere R. Santana, Jr. S. Asmussen 121 12-1
6 Letruska I. Ortiz, Jr. F. Gutierrez 124 8-5
7 Horologist J. Alvarado W. Mott 124 30-1
8 Shedaresthedevil F. Geroux B. Cox 124 4-1
9 As Time Goes By L. Saez B. Baffert 124 15-1
10 Marche Lorraine (JPN) O. Murphy Y. Yahagi 124 30-1
11 Dunbar Road J. Ortiz C. Brown 124 15-1

 

Race Preview:

This could be one of my favorite races of the day, the field is absolutely loaded. To start things off we have PRIVATE MISSION, he’s won his last two Stakes races and has seemed more comfortable running a longer distance. ROYAL FLAG has seemed to fair better in G2 and G3 Stakes but has struggled to find the winners circle in a G1 Stakes as of late. MALATHATT has only lost one race in her seven starts, this horse is extremely impressive with multiple G1 wins to her name. CLAIRIERE won a G1 at Parx her last out but has never beaten MALATHATT. LETRUSKA has won her last five starts , four of which were G1 Stakes. This 5 year old mare is the morning line favorite for a reason. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL has looked good this year capturing multiple G1 Stakes wins but lost to LETRUSKA back in June.

Picks:

WIN: 6 LETRUSKA

EXACTA: 6/ 2, 3, 5

 

Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 11
  • Post Time: 4:40 PM
  • Length: 1 1/2 Miles
  • Purse: $4,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Daily Double / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Rockemperor (IRE) J. Castellano C. Brown 126 15-1
2 United J. Velazquez R. Mandella 126 20-1
3 Domestic Spending (GB) F. Prat C. Brown 126 4-1
4 Astronaut V. Espinoza J. Shirreffs 126 20-1
5 Tribhuvan (FR) J. Ortiz C. Brown 126 20-1
6 Acclimate R. Gonzalez P. D’Amato 126 20-1
7 Walton Street (GB) J. Doyle C. Appleby 126 8-1
8 Broome (IRE) L. Dettori A. O’Brien 126 20-1
9 Sisfahan (FR) C. Demuro H. Grewe 122 12-1
10 Yibir (GB) W. Buick C. Appleby 122 12-1
11 Gufo J. Rosario C. Clement 126 8-1
12 Teona (IRE) D. Egan R. Varian 119 6-1
13 Tarnawa (IRE) C. Keane D. Weld 123 9-5
14 Japan (GB) R. Moore A. O’Brien 126 20-1

A/E: #15 BOLSHOI BALLET , #16 CHANNEL MAKER will run in place of #2 & #3

Race Preview:

ROCKEMPEROR bested GUFO his last time out in a G1 Stakes but lost him in the race prior. This horse has shown he’s capable of winning so we’ll see what he can do here. WALTON STREET seems comfortable at this distance of a 1 1/2 Miles. This gelding has captured several stakes wins at this distance. SISFAHAN won a G1 Stakes race in Germany earlier this year at this distance. Since then, this colt has finished 2nd and 3rd in G1 Stakes. YIBIR is coming off back to back wins at this distance. This gelding is certainly a contender and is worth at look given the price. GUFO is coming off a loss to ROCKEMPEROR as previously mentioned but he was bumped a the start and still ran 3rd. With DOMESTIC SPENDING scratched, GUFO becomes a bigger contender. TEONA seems to be in great form shipping in from across the pond. He’s won his last two after having a rough stretch of races before. TARNAWA is the horse to beat coming over from Ireland, he only has one win in his three starts this year but raced in some very tough stakes. When he came to the US the last time he won the G1 BC Turf at Keeneland in November of last year, so he’s clearly comfortable with the turf here.

Picks:

WIN: 11 GUFO

EXACTA: 9, 10, 11/ 13

 

 

Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 12
  • Post Time: 5:40 PM
  • Length: 1 1/4 Miles
  • Purse: $6,000,000
  • Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Tripoli I. Ortiz, Jr. J. Sadler 126 15-1
2 Express Train V. Espinoza J. Shirreffs 126 20-1
3 Hot Rod Charlie F. Prat D. O’Neill 122 4-1
4 Essential Quality L. Saez B. Cox 122 3-1
5 Knicks Go J. Rosario B. Cox 126 5-2
6 Art Collector M. Smith W. Mott 126 8-1
7 Stilleto Boy K. Desormeaux E. Moger, Jr. 122 30-1
8 Medina Spirit J. Velazquez B. Baffert 122 4-1
9 Max Player R. Santana, Jr. S. Asmussen 126 8-1

 

Race Preview:

The main event has finally arrived! TRIPOLI is on the rail coming off a 4th place finish in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes. In that race was bested by fellow entrants MEDINA SPIRIT, STILLETO BOY, and EXRPRESS TRAIN. Prior to his last out he won the G1 Pacific Classic and took 2nd in the G2 San Diego Handicap. In that G1 win, the race was run a 1 1/4 Miles which this race is also run at. EXPRESS TRAIN‘s best finish of the year comes back in that G2 San Diego Handicap where he beat TRIPOLI. This horse will try to stay middle of the pack but I don’t think will have enough closing power given the field. HOT ROD CHARLIE is in incredible form, coming off two G1 Stakes wins where he posted his best career speed figures. The only downside to this horse is he has lost to MEDINA SPIRIT and ESSENTIAL QUALITY in the past but things could change given how he looks as of late. ESSENTIAL QUALITY has won five of his six starts this year just dominating the competition. His only loss this year comes to MEDINA SPIRIT in the G1 Kentucky Derby. KNICKS GO is the current favorite but that may change before post time. This 5 year old horse has won her last three starts including the G1 Whitney. He has yet to face ESSENTIAL QUALITY and MEDINA SPIRIT so it should be a good test for him. ART COLLECTOR is another horse on a hot streak winning his last three. He had a rough finish to 2020 and start in 2021 but seems to be racing better as of late and enjoying the longer races. MEDINA SPIRIT comes into the Classic with two wins in his last two starts. He’s beaten most of the other horses in race and looks to be a serious contender. MEDINA SPIRIT also won the G1 Kentucky Derby this year but is still under review for doping allegations with Trainer Bob Baffert. MAX PLAYER rounds out the field and seems to enjoy the 1 1/4 Mile distance winning his last two starts at that length.

Picks:

WIN: 4 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 

EXACTA BOX: 3, 4, 8

 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Raiders at Giants – November 7, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
-
Derek Carr, the Raiders QB, pictured up close.

 

It’s week 9 in the NFL– make sure you check out @Snormsnorm on Twitter (he’s KILLING IT in NFL this year) and check out our Circa Picks on this site when we post them tomorrow. Of course, you should probably follow ME on Twitter, too. Let’s go!

For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 30-21 (59%), +13.18 units
MLB Season: 231-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 57-54, +7.2 units
NFL Circa Picks: 26-13-1

Giants +3 (-110), 1.5 units: I hate counting on my Giants – if you listen to “Laying the Points with FarleyBets,” my weekly betting podcast, you’d know this. But this is a great spot for the Giants and not so much for the Raiders. The Raiders are a better team than the Giants– that much is true. They deserve to be favorites on the road. But no team in the NFL has endured as much controversy and media attention as Vegas this year. After Gruden was fired, the lifeless Chicago Bears came into “The Death Star” and handed the Raiders a bad loss at home. Now Derek Carr and his teammates, who have to feel at least partially attached to what tragically happened with Henry Ruggs this past week, head on the road to face a Giants team that kept pace with the Chiefs in Arrowhead on Monday Night Football. While New York has plenty to improve on, Daniel Jones has done a good job taking care of the ball and the G-Men’s pass defense has been very solid the last few weeks. Their secondary dropped 3 sure interceptions against KC, but they held Mahomes to a subpar passer rating and nearly won the game. Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett, who I would still pay money to get fired, has at least upped the creativity in NYG’s play-calling, too. Jones has been scrambling more, getting outside the pocket, and throwing defenses off with his run/pass option plays. The Raiders, on the other hand, are in a lookahead spot– they’re coming off a bye but they have a hugely important game against the Chiefs next week at Allegiant Stadium. The Chiefs, even with all their struggles, are still right there in the AFC West race and could end up in the lead if they get past the Raiders next week. Vegas is in first place currently but the Chiefs face an Aaron-Rodgers-less Packers team at home in Week 9. Because of all the extenuating circumstances surrounding the Raiders, there’s just no way I can play on the black and silver this Sunday. Go Giants!

Premiums, 11.6

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

UFC

  • M. Chandler *
  • Weili Zhang **
  • Covington/Usman over 3.5 rounds **
NBA
  • Rockets/Nuggets under 217 **
  • Celtics/Mavs under 210 **
  • Hawks/Suns under 223 **

NFL Week 9: Free Play

By
Steve Norman
-

Week 9 is among us and I feel like I say it every week, but this one is genuinely the hardest one yet. However, I found a great spot to jump on late in the week before the line moves more.   Here is my FREE PICK:

Current NFL Season Record: 77-41 (65%), +41.87 units

Sf -2 (-115) 1 unit: 

We have a tough AZ @ SF match up that has a lot of unknowns in the injury department. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both Game-time Decisions, along with Wr AJ Green officially out. We saw last week that DeAndre Hopkin’s hamstring is an issue and I do not foresee the Cardinals pushing the envelope with his health. Especially when you are getting statements from your GM Steve Keim, “ The Cardinals need to consider the “Big Picture” with Kyler Murray.”   The truth of the matter is the Cardinals are 7-1 and quite injured at key skill positions. It is a long season and as Steve Keim also said, they need to “be smart”. I am banking on these two players to be a no go Sunday and still looking to get great value on SF @ -2. Come kick-off I could see the line jump to 3 once Colt Mccoy officially gets the nod.

Now do not get me wrong it is not all rainbows on the San Francisco side of things. We have to keep an eye on Deebo Samuel’s calf and Elijah Mitchell ribs injuries. However, SF is getting back a key player in George Kittle and both Qbs are healthy for SF. Truth of the matter is San Francisco needs this win way more than the Cardinals. They know it may be just a little late for them to be able to realistically compete for the NFC West Division title, but they are every bit in the running for the third Wild Card spot. It boils down to this, it is a quarter back league and when you lose your guy on the road (that’s what’s trending, if not Kyler is still not 100%) it usually does not go well for you. Last week was an absolute anomaly with these back ups coming in and dominating. Big difference this week is there is more than enough film on Colt Mccoy and the Niners have a defensive front that can pressure and take care of him.

This is going to be an absolute battle I could see this game coming down to a field goal. I like the home team, I like a healthy Qb over a banged up one/back up one, and most of all I love getting in under that key number of 3. San Francisco 49ers -2.

Thanks for your support and good luck everyone!

UFC 268 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

UFC is Kiev O’Neil’s best sport!  To get his premium and exotic plays Click Here!

Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler +175

About time Justin steps back into the ring against a contender.   But is Michael Chandler a contender?  Well, he certainly has had some hype at 35 years old and a nice 22-6 record but most of those fights were in the Bellator and not the higher class UFC.  Chandler has great stand up and a decent ground game but he hasn’t wanted to go to the mat in a while for some reason.    His UFC fights were against a very overrated Dan Hooker and the Champion Charles Olivera who might have got caught some by Chandler in the first round but instead survived and KO’d Chandler in the 2nd.  The problem is that the Champion, Charles Olivera isn’t even the best fighter in this stacked lightweight class.  I personally think that Justin Gaethje at 32 years old and 22-3 is better than the champion Charles Olivera and this fight might just prove it.   Gaethje has amazing standup landing 7.46 significant strikes per minute to Michael Chandler’s 4.49.  Chandler has the better ground game in general but as said before, he doesn’t use it anymore.   I think Justin Gaethje wins this bout and I am going to lay the -205 up to -220.

Gaejthe -205 – 2 stars

Parlay Justin Gaejthe -205 with Kamaru Usman -320 at -102ish – 1 star – I like Colby Covington a lot but Usman has many outs in this fight.  If he gets banged up he plays the control game against the cage.

Andreas Michailidis +205 – 1.5 star premium – This fight is just mispriced in the first place.   Andreas is 13-4 going against a guy who is only 3-1 with no UFC experience.  Fade the hype for the sake of the price.

 

The 2021 Breeders Cup Classic – Horse Racing

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Before you read this please take note that I am only an amateur horse player who only bets some of the larger races and has access to professionals and good information.   The Breeders cup is at 10 furlong race where the best of the best compete and I have been involved with many races with many of these entrants over the last few years.   In this race, the field is fierce and you could make a case for at least 7 out of 9 of these thoroughbreds.   Off to Del Mar we go!  So whenever there is a big race like this, you have to have a strategy.  First we have to toss out the horses that we think have no chance in hitting the board and that is the 2 horse “Express Train” and the 9 horse “Max Player.”  Neither of these ponies stepped up against big competition in my honest opinion.   The next horse that I am throwing out is, believe it or not, the favorite horse going off at 5-2 in “Knicks Go.”   This horse is very fast and could ruin my ticket but he also has never ran a race over 8 furlongs and has never faced the top contenders in this field.  He also seemed to have peaked already.   With my ticket headliner, I have the 4 horse “Essential Quality” going off at 3-1 who has been perfect in winning every race against the best competition except for the Kentucky Derby where he had a bad trip.  EQ has rebounded well three times since then.  My other price candidate is the 6 horse “Art Collector” who was a derby favorite earlier in the year but had to miss about 7 months of racing due to injury.  This horse has shown well as of late, and moved his Beyers speed figures up to 107 in his last race.   The 7 horse “Media Spirit” and the 3 horse “Hot Rod Charlie” are the other two 4-1 favorites which could ruin my ticket so I bought some exacta insurance on them.   Here are my plays and best of luck today!

Ticket Total $146

Superfecta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[4, 6] – 2nd[3, 4, 6, 8] – 3rd[1, 3, 4, 6, 8] – 4th[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
108 bets @ $0.10
Ticket total $10.8

 

Trifecta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[4] – 2nd[3, 4, 6, 8] – 3rd[1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9]
15 bets @ $2
Ticket total $30

 

Trifecta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[6] – 2nd[3, 4, 6, 8] – 3rd[1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9]
15 bets @ $1.00
Ticket total $15

 

Exacta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[4] – 2nd[1, 3, 6, 7]
4 bets @ $4
Ticket total $16

 

Exacta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[6] – 2nd[1, 3, 4, 7]
4 bets @ $4
Ticket total $16

 

Exacta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[2, 3, 8] – 2nd[4, 6]
6 bets @ $2
Ticket total $12

 

Exacta Box
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[3, 8]
2 bets @ $6
Ticket total $12

 

Exacta Box
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[4, 8]
2 bets @ $6
Ticket total $12

 

Exacta
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
1st[8] – 2nd[1, 3, 4, 6]
4 bets @ $3
Ticket total $12

 

Straight
Del Mar, Nov 06, Race #12
4
Essential Quality
1st
$#10
1 bet
Ticket total $10

Best Weekend in Racing! The Breeders’ Cup – Saturday Racing Free Picks

By
Shawn Knoche
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Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Del Mar for the second time after its debut there in 2017. Del Mar is one of my favorite venues in the country and they should put on a fantastic show for us this weekend.

We hit one of five winners in the juvenile races on Friday and are hoping to take down some nice wins on the Big Cards on Saturday as well. My written analysis is much lighter for Saturday as I am also finishing up Saturday football card, but I put just as much time in evaluating as I did for Friday’s races (Just less time typing). I am including picks for all 12 races on the card, The Breeders’ Cup races are numbers 4-12

Race 1 Allowance Optional Claiming –  1 1/16 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $100,000 – Post Time: 12:15 CST

I like the 7 Horse Via Egnatia here as a solid closer who has won the last two times out including at this distance with both races in Socal.

WIN: 7 – Via Engatia

Top 4 if playing exotics: 7-8-6-1

Race 2 The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance – Grade II – 1 5/8 Miles (Dirt) Purse: $250,000 Post Time – 12:50 CST

Possible revenge tour for a few different horses. 2 Horse Lone Rock beat 4 Horse Tizamagician at Belmont a few trips back, and 6 horse Locally Owned knocked off Lone Rock there in Mid- September.

WIN: 2  – Lone Rock

Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-4-6-3

Race 3  – The Goldikova S. – Grade II – 1 Mile (TURF) – Purse: $300,000 – Post Time 1:25 CST

Female Turf Mile race lacking in frontline speed. See this one as fairly wide open so looking at some longer shots. 8 horse Warren’s Showtime fits the bill at 12-1. Hit the board in 20 off 22 starts and matches the favorite 2 Horse Princess Grace’s best mile time this year.

Win: 8- Warren’s Showtime

Top 4 if playing exotics:  8-1-2-7

Race 4 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: 2:05 CST

First Breeders Cup Race of the Day features 5 Horse Gamine as big favorite having won 9 of last 10 races over last two years including this race last year. The price won’t be right so I’ll be looking to play this one as an Exacta with Gamine over some others.

Exacta: 5/2-3-4

Race 5 The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade I – 5 Furlongs (TURF) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: – 2:40 CST

Speed, Speed and more Speed as again it will depend on who can get in some clear air and make this a good trip. Sticking with the combo that worked on Friday with Trainer Wesley Ward and Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr aboard 3 horse Golden Pal. I do think this race is very wide open though so look for some potential long odds options as post time gets close. I am leading toward the 4 horse Lieutenant Dan.

Win: 3 Golden Pal

Top 4 if playing exotics: – 3-4-11-2

Race 6 The Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time: 3:19 CST

What a great sponsor for a race. Or anything really. I like the favorite here 5 Horse Life is Good. I’ll be playing him in exactas here as likely to go off at less than even money.

Exacta Key Box: 5/1-3-6

Race 7 The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – Grade I – 1 3/8 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 3:59 CST

I was really torn on this one between quite a few horses. Settled on taking a shot on the 6 Horse Love. She has been battling it out in Europe with the 12 Horse Audarya.

Win: 6 Love

Top 4 If Playing exotics: 6-7-12-11

Race 8 The Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade I – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time 4:38 CST

2 Horse Jackie’s Warrior is likely to be a big favorite at Post, and I will use him in Exactas, but I also like the 2 outside horses to challenge if they get clear. The 8 Horse Special Reserve and the 9 Horse Dr. Schivel.

Exacta Key Box: 2/8-9

Trifecta Box 2-8-9

Race 9 The Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 5:20 CST

The Horse to beat is the one who has won 9 of the last 10 6 Horse Mo Forza. Currently at 5-1 But I expect that to drop. Get him to win at 2-1 or better and in Exacta’s.

Win – 6 Mo Forza

Exacta Key Box – 6/2-11-3

Race 10 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $2,000,000  Post Time 6:00 CST

Fillies and Mares here. 2 Big Favorites and with good reason. I locked them both with the juvenile double yesterday so hoping one comes in. 3 Horse Malathaat and 6 Horse Letruska are the class of the field with the Malathaat having won 6 of last 7 and Letruska 7 of the last 8. No reason to expect anything different here. Take your pick or pair them up. Also a good spot to start or end or middle a Pick 3.

Win: 3 Malathaat

Pick 3: I’ll have a few going around this race. Hit me up for details on Twitter @thegreatknoche

Race 11 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade I – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $4,000,000  Post Time: 6:40 CST

Wide Open Race with a lot of big names. I landed on the 10 Horse Yibir. Had a great showing at Belmont last time out in September going this same 1.5 Miles in 2:26. If he can repeat I like his chances over some of the other big names like 11 horse Gufo, and 3 Horse Domestic Spending.

Win: 10 Yibir

Top 4 if playing Exotics: 10-11-8-3

Race 12 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I -1 1/4 Miles (Dirt)  Purse $6,000,000 – Post Time 7:40 CST

The Best of the Best here in the Classic, and for me it’s all about 5 Horse Knicks Go. He had a couple of rough races to start the year, but has rounded into form. He will be stretching out an extra 1/8 mile here vs his last 3 races, but it doesn’t really concern me. If he stumbles I like the 9 Horse Max Player to come in over the 2 big 3 year olds from this year 3 Horse Hot Rod Charlie and 4 Horse Essential Quality.

Win: Knicks Go

Top 4 if playing Exotics: 5-9-4-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday College Football Power System play

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Huge Saturday card up with the 2021 College Total of the Year, an Executive Level Tier 1 Side, the BIG 10 Game of the Month, NBA Power System Play, Soccer and the Breeders Cup. Comp Play below.

The College Football comp Play is on Iowa at 7:00 eastern. The Hawkeyes have home loss revenge here and will be more than motivated playing off back to back losses. They have covered 9 of 10 as a road favorite of 7 or more and they are 12-1 ats as a favorite of 17 or less vs a team off a loss of more than 14. Northwestern is 1-9 ats as a dog of 2 or more in the 2nd of back to back home games. The favorite has covered 7 of 9 in this series. Iowa has better numbers on both sides of the ball and likely coast to a cover here. On Saturday Total of the Year Headlines in Football along with An Executive Level Tier 1 Side and 3 more best bets, there is a Huge NBA Power System Play, Soccer and the Breeders Cup. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on.  For the College Comp Play. Go with Iowa. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

College Football Week 10 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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NEW ORLEANS, LA - AUGUST 30: Sam Hartman #10 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons throws the ball as Marvin Moody #28 of the Tulane Green Wave defends during the second half on August 30, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

College Football:

Wake Forest vs UNC -2.5 O/U 76.5

If you like fast pace, no defense and lots of points, this might be the game for you.  Will Wake Forest remain undefeated after this week?  It feels that they finally play a team that has somewhat of a pulse if you don’t count Syracuse, Virginia and Louisville but I think that the fighting Dave Clausens team keep rolling.   The Deacons rank 11th in offensive explosiveness while the Tarheels rank 14th.  North Carolina has the better defense ranking 87th in success rate to Wake’s 114th, but Wake allows less points per game at 24 to 30.  UNC has had a harder schedule somewhat but they do not have any big wins.  Both teams are about equal in yards per play but what I really like from Wake is their resilience even with that bad defense.  Wake Forest ranks 8th in red zone scores while North Carolina ranks 86th.  Mack Brown is starting to remind me of the Mack Brown that got fired from Texas.   I like wake here and I also like their team total over 37 as an insurance policy.

Wake Forest +3 – 1.5 stars and team total over 37 – 1.5 stars

Wisconsin vs Rutgers +13 O/U 38

This is a game where the market thinks that Rutgers won’t score much but Wisconsin should put up just enough to win with comfort.  Not long ago, the Badgers offense ranked 129th in EPA/Play.   They now have moved all the way up to 118th scoring 20 or more points their last 3 games.   The good news for the Badgers is that they play Rutgers who is mediocre at defense ranking 30th in opponent EPA per play and 99th on offense.  Wisconsin even with bad showings against Michigan, Penn State. and Notre Dame is still a 1.23 net yards per play compared to Rutgers who is -1.09.  I don’t know how Rutgers is going to score here barring any bad Badger turnovers.   Wisconsin has the 2nd best defense in the league and rank number 1 in success rate in both rushing and passing as well as line yards.  I think Wisconsin has stopped beating themselves and they win this game comfortably 27-10.

Wisconsin -13 – 2 stars

Auburn vs Texas A&M -4.5 O/U 49

I really do not understand this line at all.   Texas A&M is getting way too much credit for their Alabama win.  Auburn in my power ratings is the better team and I am pretty sure that A&M’s quarterback Haynes King still isn’t back.  Auburn has improved greatly since their Georgia loss beating teams like Arkansas and Ole Miss who are both maybe better than Texas A&M.  The only way that Texas A&M can move the ball is by rushing it averaging 5.3 yards per rush.  Unfortunatley for them, Auburn ranks 17th in FBS only allowing 3.3 yards per attempt.   The Better quarterback here is Bo Nix averaging 254 passing yards per game while Zach Calzada is only at 55% and 208 yards per game.  Auburn has also the harder schedule facing Georgia, Penn State and Ole miss while A&M’s top team was only catching Alabama.  I think that this game should be closer to a pickem here and I played Auburn.

Auburn +4.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle

Free CFB Pick with Analysis for Friday, November 5th

By
Nick Hub
-

Let’s continue executing the edge today!! We had a clean sweep last week in College Football going 6-0 and are 20-5 in our last 25 CFB plays!!  I have a free pick below that I made a premium play at -7.5 earlier in the week. Another reason why you need to get on board now to get the best number! Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays today!!

Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

The Utah Utes and the Stanford Cardinal square off in a late night Pac-12 matchup on Friday night at Stanford Stadium.  Utah comes in with a 5-3 record after a 20 point win against UCLA last week and Stanford has lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, most recently losing to Washington by 7 last week.  Utah enters this contest averaging 416 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 33.4 points per game while the Cardinal are scoring 24.9 points per game and gaining 341 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  This favors Utah because they are outperforming their opposing defenses that give up 385 yards per game and 26.5 points per game while the Stanford has underperformed against defenses that give up 380 yards per game and 25.4 points per game.  There is a huge advantage for the Utes in this matchup and that is the running game.  Utah is averaging 5.5 yards per play and 191 yards per game against defenses giving up 4.2 YPP and 141 YPG.  Let me introduce you to the Stanford rush defense that is allowing 5.1 YPP and 2.6 YPG against offenses averaging 4.4 YPP and 156 YPG. Clear edge here.  Also, if Utah gets up on Stanford it could be tough for them to come back with a tempo that ranks 115th in the nation.  Additionally, Utah’s 36th ranked offensive success rate will be going up Stanford’s 116th defensive success rate and the Utes are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record while the Cardinal are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Utes will control this game from start to finish and should win by at least 10.  Take Utah -9.5

Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

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