Home Blog Page 445

Week 10 CFB Free Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

My 2021 CFB record currently sits at 65-50-1(56.4%), +21.91u. In addition to these 7 free plays, I have 7 CFB plays for my premium members. My premium plays have hit at a 66% clip(51-26-1) and have netted my members +38.1u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1u): Virginia Tech/Boston College UNDER 48(-110)–Fri. 6:30 PM CT

Virginia Tech avenged a 3 game losing streak with a nice win at Georgia Tech last week, but I’m still very down on the Hokies’ offense. QB Braxton Burmeister is completing just 54% of his passes, but even worse is his 7.2 Y/A(yards per attempt). Not only is he inefficient, but due to an undermanned WR group, he’s not taking too many vertical shots. Boston College HC Jeff Hafley came over from a DC role at Ohio State, and his Golden Eagles squad has proven to be capable of holding stagnant offenses like VT’s at bay. However, Hafley is having his own crisis on offense. After losing QB Phil Jurkovec for the season, Boston College has looked lifeless with Dennis Grosel at QB. Over their 4 game losing streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging just 10 PPG, and this Hokies defense has proven to be steady this season. At this point of the season, neither of these teams are going to suddenly flip a switch after establishing their identities as below-average offenses. I expect defense to take over and for this to be an ugly, low-scoring game. 

*CFB(1u): SMU/Memphis OVER 70.5(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT

SMU’s offense has been a juggernaut all season, and they continued their success with a 37 point performance last week against Houston, who has one of the top defenses in the American Conference. When you combine an efficient passer in Tanner Mordecai(70.3% completion, 8.8 Y/A) and a multitude of weapons into a fast-paced offense, plenty of points are going to be scored. That being said, I’m not overly high on SMU’s defense and think that Memphis can exploit some of the Mustangs’ weaknesses. Memphis QB Seth Henigan might be a true freshman, but you wouldn’t know it by his 16 TD: 4 INT ratio. While Henigan is questionable entering this game, I’m fully expecting him to play. The Tigers have one of the best WR’s in all of CFB in Calvin Austin III; Austin is averaging 112 yards/game this season and has eclipsed the 200 yard mark in 2 separate games. The Mustangs tend to yield a lot of explosive plays through the air, so the Tigers should have multiple opportunities to strike deep. This sets up to be a back-and-forth game that goes down to the wire. While 70.5 is a high total, I don’t think it does justice to what each of these offenses are capable of. Give me the Over. 

*CFB(1u): Illinois +15(-110) @ Minnesota–Sat. 11 AM CT

Minnesota has sneakily put themselves in a position to contend for a Big10 West title this season. Sitting at 6-2 currently, the Gophers have rattled off 4 straight conference wins; their average margin of victory in that span is over 14 points/game. They’ve been able to have this success despite losing each of their top 2 RB’s; yet, the Gophers are still employing a run-heavy attack. Illinois’ defense is quite stingy; the Illini are allowing just 23 PPG this season have haven’t allowed more than 22 points in conference play. The only weakness in the Illini defense might be their secondary, but lucky for them, PJ Fleck has little trust in his WR group(hence the run-heavy attack). The Illini offense is hard to watch at times; there isn’t much creativity to speak of. However, their defense has stepped up for them time and time again, so I’m expecting another low-scoring, tight game from this Bret Bielema-led group. I’ll grab those 15 points. 

*CFB(1u): Missouri +39(-110) @ Georgia–Sat. 11 AM CT

I almost never bet against the best team in the country, but this line is crazy. Georgia would need to win by a whopping 40 points to cover; they’ve only won by that margin twice this season(UAB and Vanderbilt). For example, Georgia totally dominated South Carolina in a 40-13 win earlier this season; if the Tigers were to lose by that same margin here, it would be an easy cover. A 39 point line insinuates that Missouri is totally inept on each side of the ball, something I’m not willing to concede. Missouri is averaging nearly 35 PPG this season and have a talented QB in Connor Bazelak who’s completing 68% of his passes. I have little hope that the Tigers will be able to establish any sort of run game against an elite Georgia DL, but Bazelak has shown me enough through 2 years as a starter to where I think he’ll at least look competent in this game. While Mizzou’s offense is capable, there’s not much good to say about their defense; the Tigers are yielding 36 PPG and have gotten routinely shredded in the run game. Given Georgia’s makeup, I have little doubt that they’ll be able to establish the run. However, QB Stetson Bennett went just 10/19 with 2 INT’s last week and shouldn’t be needed for too many deep balls in this one. If JT Daniels were to be good enough to go, I’d expect him to look a bit rusty and not mirror the QB we saw towards the end of last season. With a road game at Tennessee on deck, I’m not seeing much incentive for the Bulldogs to extend this game any further than it needs to go; once the game is sealed up, it should be a race to wrap it up as quickly as possible. Georgia will win this game handily, but even a little bit of pushback from the Missouri side should lead to an easy cover. Call me crazy, but I’m riding with the Tigers in this one. 

*CFB(1u): West Virginia 1H TT UNDER 10.5(-120) vs Oklahoma State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Oklahoma State’s 7-1 start to the season has had little to do with their offense and much to do with their defense success. The Pokes employ one of best LB rooms in the country and have crippled opposing offenses week in/week out. West Virginia RB Leddie Brown has had some great games this season, but a 4.6 YPC illustrates that he has been held captive in West Virginia’s tougher matchups. While QB Jarret Doege has looked good in the Mountaineers’ last 2 games, he has limited upside; more than anything, the Mountaineers struggle to hit on explosive plays and are forced into long drives that require pin-point efficiency on 3rd down. I’m willing to bet Neal Brown’s bunch walks away from this game sorely disappointed with how they stack up against the Oklahoma State defense. Anything over 10 on a 1H TT presents a good opportunity to bet the Under. 

*CFB(1u): Boise State +5(-110) @ Fresno State–Sat. 6 PM CT

Fresno State has brought its “A” game in the Bulldogs’ biggest games this season, but they’ve also proven to be vulnerable in classic “let down” spots. The Bulldogs played Oregon to a 1 score game and beat UCLA outright on the road only to follow up with a mere 8 point win against UNLV and an outright loss at Hawaii. They’ve played 2 straight “big time” games against Nevada and San Diego State and have found a way to win, but I struggle to see them look as sharp for a third straight week. Boise State might be 4-4 on the season, but the talent is there. The Broncos picked up a super impressive outright win at BYU just a few weeks ago and will be unfazed entering this matchup. While establishing the run game could be a struggle, I’m putting my trust in QB Hank Bachmeier. The Broncos are “live dogs” in this Mountain West battle. 

*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Baylor, Oregon, Arizona State(+148)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Each team responds to losing their Head Coach completely differently. For TCU, I don’t expect the team to respond well down the stretch of the season. Gary Patterson was and is TCU Football, and with the news of his exit, many of TCU’s best players are already on portal watch. The Horned Frog defense is not up to par this season, so I’d expect Baylor to be able to establish the running game and for the play-action game to open up for Baylor QB Gary Bohannon. It’s a true mystery who’s going to play for TCU in this one; star RB Zach Evans missed last week’s game(I’d be willing to bet he hits the portal), and QB Max Duggan is a game-time decision. In any case, I have a hard time seeing a red-hot Baylor team lose to a broken TCU bunch.

Washington(4-4) has underperformed expectations all season, and Jimmy Lake’s refusal to turn the QB responsibilities over to 5* freshman Sam Huard is going to bite him once again. The Ducks have one of the most talented defenses in the country and won’t have too much to worry about given the Huskies’ lack of creativity. Washington’s defense has been pretty solid as expected, but Oregon QB Anthony Brown really seems to have turned a corner. When RB CJ Verdell went down, it’s almost as if the Ducks were forced to open up the offense a little bit, which has paid off. Washington has had many opportunities to turn the tale of their season, and they’ve failed miserably. Oregon will win this game.

USC seems to be having some issues within their team right now after they deployed a 2 QB system last week. No matter who takes the majority of the snaps, they will be playing an uphill battle all night. The Trojans lost WR Drake London for the season last week; London virtually made up all of USC’s WR production(1,084 yards, 135 yards/game). While RB Keontay Ingram has had a nice season statistically, the Trojans still struggle mightily to finish drives; without London, I expect the offense to underperform. Arizona State inexplicably lost to Washington State last week as 16 point favorites, but I’m sticking strong with them here. Herm Edwards has accumulated a ton of talent during his tenure in Tempe, and he has a defense that should give the Trojans fits at all 3 levels. QB Jayden Daniels needs to respond strong tonight, and I think he will. ASU wins this game. 

NBA Free Pick: Pelicans at Warriors – November 5, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
-
Jonas Valancuinas running up the court.

 

Happy Friday, good people! Following a rough Wednesday, we’re feeling better today after going 2-0 Thursday night and getting back to a 60% win rate (28-19) in the NBA. Let’s get some more tonight– here’s a free play to start your weekend!

For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 28-19 (60%), +15.38 units
MLB Season: 231-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 57-54, +7.2 units

Pelicans 1Q +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: For whatever reason, the Warriors can’t seem to start off their games on a high note. In the early part of this season, Golden State has generally started slow. In the first four games they had a -19 point differential in the first half of play; that’s an average of 4.75 points down per game. They hit a high note in game 5 in the 1st quarter (winning 37-20), but ended up 7 points behind in the 2nd quarter. They repeated that with another solid 1st half showing against the Thunder, going up 11 in the first 24 minutes, only to get edged out in the 1st quarter by the Hornets again Wednesday.

I’m not sure what the rhyme or reason is behind these slow starts, but maybe it has to do with their moxie in the first 7 games. Golden State looks and plays with confidence, even when they’re losing, and have shown a propensity to “turn up the volume” and out-class teams in the 2nd half. And ultimately the Warriors are playing with exceptional chemistry, producing at a high rate as a team on the offensive end and locking down the opponent on defense. Players like Jordan Poole (who picked up right where he left off after a great preseason), Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. and veteran Andre Iguodala have made fast contributions to a team that looks ready to have a big season.

Regardless, I also like the way the Pelicans have played lately. They’re a young team and lack experience but new coach Willie Green has them fighting hard. We saw that effort exemplified in their energetic 1st half against the Suns, where they caused turnover after turnover and boat-raced Phoenix to the rim. And they’ve started games strong against good competition. Here’s how their last 7 games have went in the 1st quarter of play:

  • Lost by 1
  • Won by 14
  • Lost by 6
  • Lost by 7
  • Won by 14
  • Won by 6
  • Lost by 1

In totality, that’s a +2.71 point differential per game and +19 point differential overall in the 1st quarter. Of course we’ve seen some real variance in those contests, but in general they don’t lose by as much and when they win, they win big. Willie Green seems to have the same calculated disposition as the coaching trees he comes from (Golden State, Phoenix) and I think this Pelicans team will improve as the season goes on. Of course Zion’s return and Brandon Ingram back-to-health will help. New addition Jonas Valanciunas saw his stock rise last year in Memphis and I love his matchup in this game. He’ll have a pure-skill advantage against Kevon Looney and his aggressive style of play energizes his team. I also like that the Pelicans have the weekend off after this matchup. Not a bad spot.

New Orleans is 1-8 and can’t feel good about their trajectory, despite how hard they’ve fought. They need this win considerably more than Golden State and while the Warriors often start off sleepy, I trust that the Pelicans can keep it within distance.

NBA 11.5 Premiums, CFB, and New NFL

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

2-0 in the NBA– nice to get that back. Happy Friday!

NBA 11.5:
  • Grizz/Wiz under 220.5 *
  • Spurs -3.5 *
  • Clippers/T-Wolves over 216 **
  • Pelicans 1Q +3.5 **
CFB Week 10:

  • Army/AF over 37 **
  • Liberty/Ole Miss over 67 **
  • Missouri/GA under 59.5 **
  • Wake Forest wins *
  • Michigan St/Purdue under 53.5 **
  • Wisconsin -13 *
  • NC State wins **
  • Iowa/NW under 40.5 **
  • Michigan -20 *
NFL Week 9 (new picks in blue)
  • Jets/Colts under 46 ** X
  • Texans/Dolphins under 45.5 *
  • Texans +4.5
  • Ravens -6 **
  • Falcons +6 **
  • Bengals -1 *
  • Giants +3 **
  • Chargers -2 **
  • Packers +7.5 **
  • Titans +8 ***
  • Steelers -6.5 **
  • Bears TT under 16.5 **

Best Weekend in Racing! – The Breeder’s Cup – Friday Juvenile Races (6-10) Free Picks

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Del Mar for the second time after its debut there in 2017. Del Mar is one of my favorite venues in the country and they should put on a fantastic show for us this weekend.

The event starts Friday following five opening races with The Juvenile races and Race 9 features  some of the horses that could be making the run for the roses the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

Here we go…

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint -Grade II –  5 Furlongs (TURF). Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time – 4:50 CST

A full Field in a Turf Sprint means there is going to be a ton of speed out of the gate and plenty of bumping to get in front, especially from the horses on the outside. There is plenty of speed to be showcased with the 9 Horse One Timer putting up a field best at this distance last time out at 55.2 at Santa Anita. Trainer Wesley Ward who has posted the winner in this race the first two times it has been run has three horses in the field. Favorite the 8 Horse Averly Jane, 6 Horse Twilight Gleaming and 2 Horse Kaufymaker. I could also see the 4 Horse Vertiginous making some noise in this one or possibly the 11 Horse Derrynane as an off the pace closer. For me it’s all about the best pairing in this one and for me that’s the best turf sprint trainer in Ward paired up with the best Turf Jockey in Irad Ortiz Jr.

Picks:

To Win –  I like the 6 Twilight Gleaming

My Top 4 if playing exotics  – 6, 8, 9, 11

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade I – 1 &1/16 Miles- Purse: 2,000,000 Post Time 5:30 PM CST

The Smallest field for Friday features 6 horses in this two year old fillies dirt race. Big morning favorite unbeaten 6 Horse Echo Zulu will stretch out and extra 1/16 mile here for the first time but holds the fastest speed of the field in the 1 mile flat race. Main contenders will be the 2 Horse Hidden Connection who is also undefeated and the 5 horse Juju’s Map who has won her last two and looked good in doing so. 1 Horse Desert Dawn is the longshot to look at here as she has the pedigree to compete at two turns, but is lacking up to this point to compete with the favorites. For me there’s likely to be no value on Echo Zulu, and I think Juju’s Map can beat her if she stays inside of her on the trip.

Picks:

To Win – 5 Juju’s Map

My Top 4 if playing exotics –  5, 6, 2, 1 -Not much value here.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade I -1 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time 6:10 PM CST

I think this is the most wide open of the races on Friday with a big field and plenty of strong contenders. 5 Horse Bubble Rock will stretch out to 2 turns for the first time, but has shown to be a good off the pace closer thus far, and could be sneaky good with the extra 2 furlongs.  The best speed at 1 mile has come from 2 horse Cairo Memories who is unbeaten in 2 starts and will have Kent Desormeaux in the saddle again. 1 Horse Pizza Bianca comes off a 1:35 flat mile in her last run. If 14 Horse California Angel breaks well from the outside and gets a nice run she has also shown ability to close from distance and could be a factor late. 7 horse Consumer Spending has been running well at  1 1/16th and could also be out in front here late.

Picks:

To Win – 5 Bubble Rock, 2 Cairo Memories –  Use a Dutching Tool to balance your wagers.

Top 4 if Playing exotics – 5, 2, 1, 7, 14 – I will have quite a few going here. Hit me up on Twitter if interested in how I end up breaking them out later today. @thegreatknoche

Race 9 -Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Grade I- 1 & 1/6 Mile – Purse: $2,000,000 – Post Time 6:50 PM CST

Back to the dirt for 1 1/6 miles of excitment. Couple of heavy favorites in this large field. 1 Horse Jack Christopher at 9-5 and 12 Horse Corniche at 5-2. They both have 2 starts and a Maiden and Grade I victory under their belts, all by margins. Corniche a Baffert horse gets Mike Smith, EDIT: Jack Christopher gets scratched this AM. In looking for value outside those horses I landed on number 9 Horse Pinehurst. Coming off a Grade I victory of his own this is another Baffert Horse he gets Johnny V in the saddle, a combo I like.  I could also see longshot 3 Horse Oviatt Class or 8 Horse Barossa hitting the board

Picks:

To Win – 9 Pinehurst

Top 4 if playing exotics – 9, 12, 8, 3 – Make sure you get the 12 in some Exactas

Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – Grade I – 1 Mile – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 7:30 PM CST

Final Race of Day 1 features a heavy influence from across the pond with 1 Horse Modern Games and 2 Horse Albahr both coming in off a string of victories in Ireland and GB. 3 Horse Dakota Gold is unbeaten in two starts. 7 Horse Slipstream has put up some solid speed numbers, but us stretching out to 1 mile for the first time. 8 horse Glounthaune did not run much this summer and may not be in best form yet, but Aidan O Brien has done well in this race in the past and wouldnt have entered if there wasn’t a chance to win. 6 Horse Mackinnon has won the last 3 times out including a great showing with a 1:33.4 at Santa Anita on October 3rd. This one is wide open.

Picks:

To Win – 2 Albahr, 3 Dakota Gold, 6 Mackinnon. Use a Dutching Tool to balance your wagers.

Top 4 if playing exotics – 6, 2, 3, 1, 8, 14 (I went a little deeper here. Depending how the day goes I could be looking to try and hit some bigger plays by this point. Hit me up on Twitter if interested in how I end up breaking them out later today. @thegreatknoche

 

NHL Preview & Picks – November 5, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
-

The NHL season continues to roll on… We have some great matchups tonight. The main event is the Rangers and Oilers. Lets break down that game and the Predators and Canucks.

 

New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers

Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Rangers +130 +130 +1.5 (-180) o6.0 (-115)
Edmonton Oilers -150 -150 -1.5 (+160) u6.0 (-105)

 

The New York Rangers continue their West Coast road trip as they travel to Edmonton to take on the Oilers. This is last game of Edmonton’s three game home stand as they look to build on their three game win streak.

The Rangers have started the season well entering the game with a 6-2-2 record, good enough for 2nd place in the Metropolitan. Even though the Rangers have a great record, their offense continues to struggle. They’re currently averaging just 2.4 goals per game which is 27th in the NHL. Adam Fox leads the team with 11 points with Artemi Panarin right behind him at 10.

The bright spot for the Rangers has been their goaltender Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin is third in the NHL with a +9.9 GSAx and a 1.85 GAA. His play has led the Rangers to allowing an average of just 2.2 goals against per game. Their Penalty Kill has also been a bright spot for this team as well.

The Edmonton Oilers are one of the hottest teams in the league with a 8-1-0 record. Unlike New York, their offense has been outstanding leading the league in goals per game with 4.22. They also lead the league in Power Play conversions with a 46.4%. As expected the Oilers are led by league leaders Leon Draisaitl with 20 points and Connor McDavid with 19 points.

On the back end of things, the Oilers have been solid as well. They lead the league in shots allowed and are only giving up an average of 2.56 goals per game. The Oilers have historically had issues in net but, they looked to be solved for now with Mikko Koskinen. Koskinen struggled last year with the Oilers but, has looked good this year. He has a 2.18 GAA and a .934 SV%.

PICK: EDMONTON OILERS (-150)

The Oilers offense has shown 0, and I mean 0 signs of slowing down. They face a great goalie in Shesterkin but, he hasn’t been confirmed yet and Georgiev may get the start as Gallant said he plans to split time between both netminders. It’s hard not to take the Oilers at home when they rank 1st in GPG and face a team giving up the second most shots per game.

 

Nashville Predators @ Vancouver Canucks

Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Nashville Predators +100 -105 +1.5 (-240) o5.5 (+105)
Vancouver Canucks -120 -115 -1.5 (+200) u5.5 (-115)

 

The Nashville Predators have seemed to gotten back on track after a slow start to the season. They’re 4-1 in their last 5 games after going 1-4 opening the season. They take on Vancouver for their third game on the road in the middle of a six game road stint.

The Predators offense has been unpredictable all season but has been better as of late correlating to their increase in wins. They sit at 18th in the NHL averaging 2.7 goals per game. The one bright spot for them offensively has been their Power Play which ranks 7th.

Defensively they have been middle of the pack as well. They rank 16th in the NHL giving up an average of 2.9 goals per game. Juuse Saros is expected in net and will be a major factor in Nashville’s success this season. Last season he was great with a +13.2 GSAx but this season he has a +3.4 GSAx. This year he has still been really good but, it shows how great he was last year. It also shows how much that the Predators depend on his success to do well as they lack offensive production.

The Vancouver Canucks have not had a great start to the season with just a 4-5-1 record. They defeated the New York Rangers on Tuesday to snap a three game losing streak. Their game against Nashville tonight will begin a three game home stand where hopefully they can turn things around.

The Canucks have been worse than the ‘Preds on offense averaging just 2.4 goals per game. Vancouver continues to generate scoring chances but fail to capitalize on them. They have also struggled on the man advantage with just a 15.8 conversion rate. If they want to turn things around on offense they’ll need more production from Brock Boeser who led the team in points last year but, has just three this season.

Vancouver’s defense has been decent this season allowing an average of 2.6 goals per game. However, their Penalty Kill remains an issue as they rank 28th in the league. Thatcher Demko, a Boston College product, is expected to get the start in net. He enters this game with a 2.88 GAA and a .923 SV%. Demko has played well this season with a +3.6 GSAx.

PICK: NSH/VAN UNDER 5.5 (-115)

Both of these teams continue to struggle finding the back of the net. If Demko and Saros both start, I like the play. They both have + GSAx and have decent defense’s in front of them.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Week 10 CFB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

Premium Plays: 51-26-1, +38.1u

2021 CFB: 65-50-1, +21.91u

*CFB(1.5u): Kansas State -24(-110) @ Kansas–Sat. 11 AM CT

It shouldn’t take too much to convince you why betting against Kansas is a smart play. The Jayhawks are losing by an average of 36 PPG in conference play this season, and I expect them to get steamrolled once again on Saturday. Kansas State doesn’t play an overly dominant style of offense, but they are incredibly efficient. QB Skylar Thompson is a 4th year starter and is completing 70% of his passes this season. The Jayhawks are almost certain to sell out to stop RB Deuce Vaughn, but even so I trust Thompson to hit his receivers in stride quite often. Kansas State has one of the best secondaries in the Big12 and is allowing just 23 PPG this season; Kansas is a total wreck offensively, and I doubt the Wildcat defense will be under much duress. Since arriving in Manhattan prior to the 2019 season, K-State HC Chris Kleiman is 2-0 against Kansas and has won those games by an average of 34.5. I’d expect for that trend to continue and for Kansas State to win this game by 30+.

*CFB(1.5u): Georgia Tech +10.5(-110) @ Miami–Sat. 11:30 AM CT

Miami is flying high off of two straight outright wins as underdogs. The Hurricanes took care of NC State at home 2 weeks ago before stunning a trending Pitt team on the road last week. While Manny Diaz and the ‘Canes deserve a ton of credit for bouncing back strong after a brutal start to the season, I’m not buying that this success is sustainable. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke has played out of his mind these past 2 games, completing passes at over a 75% rate in each game and totalling 7 TD’s. Georgia Tech doesn’t have the most reliable defense, but they have proven to be strong against the run(like mostly everybody else against Miami) and are going to force Van Dyke to beat them. The kid is still a true freshman, and at some point or another, he’s going to fade off, especially considering he has a weak OL protecting him(sacked 7 times over past 2 games). The Yellow Jackets are wildly talented offensively; QB Jeff Sims can beat you with his arm or his legs, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for over 100 yards(and over 10 ypc) in each of his past 2 games. Even in a win last week, Miami still allowed 587 yards; this Hurricanes D is just not very good, and the narrative that Manny Diaz is some defensive savant has to stop. Georgia Tech HC Geoff Collins took his team into Coral Gables and stunned the Hurricanes 2 years ago(with a far less talented team), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again. 10.5 is far too many points here; give me the Jackets!

*CFB(1.5u): Mississippi State +5(-115) @ Arkansas–Sat. 3 PM CT

Mike Leach teams are always known by most for their offense, but this Bulldogs team is playing exceptionally well on the defensive side of the ball. If you take away the Alabama game, Miss State is allowing just 18 PPG in conference play and have proven to be very strong in their front 7. The Razorbacks have a steady pair of RB’s, but neither present the home-run threat that would make me worry. However, QB KJ Jefferson does have some fantastic weapons to work with on the outside and a great play-caller in Kendal Briles; the Razorbacks should be able to hit on a few gadget plays. Even so, I expect Mississippi State’s defense to win this matchup for the majority of this game and put their red-hot offense in some great positions. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers went 36/39 for 344 yards last week against a respectable Kentucky defense; with a completion percentage at 75% on the season, Rogers seems to be settling in nicely to Leach’s Air Raid system. The Bulldogs don’t rely much on the run game, but that actually might play out in their favor on Saturday. The Razorbacks rely on blitzing from all 3 levels to get their defense on the field, so if Rogers is going to sit back and make high-percentage throws all game, I like Mississippi’s chances of moving the ball on Arkansas. As good as Arkansas’s defense looked earlier in the season, they’ve really faded off as of late. If this line was 2.5 or 3, maybe I wouldn’t be so bullish on the Bulldogs, but getting 5 points in this close of a matchup is a steal. I think there’s a real chance Mississippi State wins this game outright, so give me those 5 points every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

*CFB(1u): Auburn +5(-110) @ Texas A&M–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Texas A&M has obviously improved quite a bit throughout this season(Did you hear that they beat Bama?), but I think the markets have started to overvalue them. Since that Alabama upset win, the Aggies have played two SEC doormats in Missouri and South Carolina. The Texas A&M run game looks fantastic at the moment, but it’s starting to look like QB Zach Calzada had one of the more flukier, “one hit wonder” games in recent memory. Since completely torching Alabama, Calzada has completed just 51% of his passes over his past 2 games. As good as the Aggies run game has been, they can’t afford to be one-dimensional against an Auburn defense that is still slept on in my opinion. Auburn DC Derek Mason has his guys playing sharp football at all 3 levels; with Calzada’s inconsistencies paired with Jimbo Fisher’s methodical pace/play-calling, I’m not expecting the Aggies to light it up offensively. Auburn QB Bo Nix has made a complete “180” on his Auburn career after being benched against Georgia State; since that game, the Tigers are 3-1 with wins @ LSU, @ Arkansas, and at home vs Ole Miss last week. The Aggies defense, like Auburn’s, is very stout, but they haven’t faced a QB with quite the running ability that Nix possesses. When the Aggies faced Arkansas, KJ Jefferson’s ability to use his feet made a sizable impact on that game, and that factor could very well be the difference here. I believe this game will be decided by a field goal(or less) in either direction, so taking the 5 points with Auburn in a game they can most certainly win is a no brainer. 

*CFB(1u): Oregon -7(-110) @ Washington–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

I had high expectations for this Washington team coming into the season, so to say I’ve been disappointed by their 4-4 campaign would be an understatement. The Huskies offense is totally stagnant with Dylan Morris at QB; Jimmy Lake’s refusal to turn to freshman phenom Sam Huard is going to come back to bite him. Oregon has one of the most talented defenses in the country, so if Washington can only muster together 20 points against a really bad Stanford team, I have little confidence in how they’ll fare in this matchup. I’ve been critical of Oregon QB Anthony Brown in the past, but he seems to have really turned a corner over the past few weeks. In his last 3 games, Brown has completed over 70% of his passes in each and has started to find a connection with his ultra-talented WR’s. While RB Travis Dye doesn’t provide quite the same amount of “umph” as CJ Verdell did, the Ducks running game is still plenty competent. Frankly, Verdell’s injury has led the Ducks to rely more on their passing game and start to open up the offense. Washington’s defense is still solid and well-coached, but if your offense can’t move the ball, how much does that really matter? These two teams really don’t like each other, so I’d expect the clearly superior Oregon team to rub it in a little bit at the end and get us this cover. 

*CFB(1u): USC TT UNDER 25 @ Arizona State–Sat. 9:30 PM CT

Oh boy, where do we start with this USC offense. The 2 QB system didn’t seem to leave junior Kedon Slovis too happy about things after last week’s game, and while freshman Jaxson Dart has shown promise in his young career, Slovis gives the Trojans the much higher floor. There hasn’t been much clarity on which QB will take the majority of the snaps, but regardless of who it is, this Trojans offense is going to be playing an uphill battle. WR Drake London was virtually the entirety of the USC WR core(1,084 yards, 135 yards/game), so now that he’s out for the season, the Trojans should expect a major hit to their passing attack. RB Keontay Ingram has actually run wild this season(6 YPC on 124 rushes), but the Trojans have still struggled to finish drives even with everybody healthy. Arizona State unexplainably lost at home to Washington State last week, but I’m not changing my stance on the Sun Devils’ defense. Herm Edwards has accumulated a ton of talent during his time in Tempe, and DC Antonio Pierce has these guys playing well at all 3 levels. Arizona State uses up a lot of clock when they’re on offense, so possessions should be at a premium for USC. Combine that with USC’s offensive inadequacies, and I think we have an easy TT Under in this spot. 

*CFB Same-Game Teaser(1u): Auburn +11 @ Texas A&M AND Auburn/Texas A&M UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

See my explanation for this game above. The one thing I’ll add is that Auburn is not very strong at the WR position, meaning explosive plays for the Tigers will be limited. I like Auburn +5 and in this teaser, but I also think we see a lower-scoring game given each team’s offensive style and defensive strengths. 

Breeders Cup Juvenile (Races 6 – 10) Preview & Picks- November 5th

By
Patrick Gates
-

The greatest weekend in Horse Racing has arrived! We start with Juvenile’s on Friday, and move to the 3 year old’s on Saturday. For Friday we have five graded stakes races starting in Race 6. Lets breakdown those races and find some winners!

 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade II
  • Race: 6
  • Post Time: 2:50 PM
  • Length: 5 Furlongs
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Open | 2 Years Old
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Daily Double Pick 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10) / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Twilight Jet (IRE) L. Roche M. O’Callaghan 122 15-1
2 Kaufymaker J. Ortiz W. Ward 119 12-1
3 Go Bears Go (IRE) J. Velazquez D. Loughnane 122 15-1
4 Vertiginous (IRE) J. Castellano B. Meehan 119 20-1
5 Hierarchy (IRE) O. Murphy H. Palmer 122 12-1
6 Twilight Gleaming (IRE) I. Ortiz, Jr. W. Ward 119 4-1
7 Armor (GB) R. Moore R. Hannon 122 6-1
8 Averly Jane T. Gaffalione W. Ward 119 5-2
9 One Timer E. Baird L. Rivelli 122 4-1
10 Time to Party F. Prat P. Miller 122 15-1
11 Derrynane J. Rosario C. Clement 119 12-1
12 Run Curtis Run L. Saez M. Maker 122 20-1

 

Race Preview:

We start the weekend with a G2 Sprint that’s open for all 2 year old’s. When looking at this race I wouldn’t overthink it, it’s all about speed with this race going only 5 furlongs. The undefeated two year old filly AVERYLY JANE is the morning line favorite. She’s beaten the boys before on both surfaces and will keep Gaffalione aboard. Another morning line favorite, ONE TIMER is a gelding who’s also undefeated. ET Baird, a long time rider, will look to capture his first BC win. TWILIGHT GLEAMING and ARMOUR also look to be in great form and should contend here as well. Some live longshots in this race include TIME TO PARTY, who beat ONE TIMER in his last out, TWILIGHT JET who won a G3 his last out, and HIERARCHY who cuts back in distance to 5F. Another wildcard is KAUFYMAKER who ran second to ARMOUR his last out.

Pick:

WIN: 9 ONE TIMER 

This is the main competitor to AVERLY JANE in this race. Both horses are undefeated but ONE TIMER has better speeds at both 5F and 5 1/2 F. I think there’s some value here trying to beat the favorite in a sprint.

 

 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 7
  • Post Time: 3:30 PM
  • Length: 1 1/16 Miles
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Fillies | 2 Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double, Special DD (Fri. Race 7-Sat. Race 10) / Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Desert Dawn R. Gonzalez P. D’Amato 122 20-1
2 Hidden Connection R. Gutierrez W. Calhoun 122 5-2
3 Sequist J. Alvarado D. Stewart 122 15-1
4 Tarabi J. Castellano C. DeVaux 122 12-1
5 Juju’s Map F. Geroux B. Cox 122 5-2
6 Echo Zulu J. Rosario S. Asmussen 122 4-5

 

Race Preview:

ECHO ZULU is the morning line favorite opening at 5-2 after going undefeated in his three starts. Joel Rosario will get the ride for the first time on this filly. In the two G1 Stakes he’s entered he’s won both but will increase in distance to a 1 1/16. JUJU’S MAP is the other morning line favorite who’s only loss comes back in her first race. Her last race was back in October at this distance where she won in the G1 Alcibiades Stakes. HIDDEN CONNECTION will take a step up in class after winning her first two starts. TARABI is another contender who lost her last out to ECHO ZULU in the G1 Spinaway Stakes.

Pick:

WIN: 6 ECHO ZULU

Hard not to bet this horse in this race given the limited field. While Rosario will get his first mount on this horse, I still think she’s a class above the competition.

 

 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 8
  • Post Time: 4:10 PM
  • Length: 1 Mile
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Fillies | 2 Years Old
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Daily Double / Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Pizza Bianca J. Ortiz C. Clement 122 5-1
2 Cairo Memories K. Desormeaux R. Hess, Jr. 122 12-1
3 Cachet (IRE) L. Saez G. Boughey 122 12-1
4 Turnerloose F. Geroux B. Cox 122 12-1
5 Bubble Rock I. Ortiz, Jr. B. Cox 122 8-1
6 Hello You (IRE) J. Velazquez D. Loughnane 122 10-1
7 Consumer Spending F. Prat C. Brown 122 8-1
8 Sail By J. Alvarado L. Gyarmati 122 20-1
9 Koala Princess J. Rosario A. Delacour 122 6-1
10 Helens Well (IRE) U. Rispoli P. D’Amato 122 30-1
11 Haughty T. Gaffalione C. Brown 122 10-1
12 Malavath (IRE) R. Moore F. – Henri Graffard 122 8-1
13 Mise En Scene (GB) O. Murphy J. Ferguson 122 6-1
14 California Angel R. Bejarano G. Leonard, III 122 8-1

 

Race Preview:

CAIRO MEMORIES, is undefeated in her first two starts and will run again at a distance she’s comfortable with. BUBBLE ROCK is fresh off a G3 win last month and will have one of the best jockeys aboard. TURNERLOOSE could win this, she has won at a Mile twice and was leading at the mile pole her last out only to run second to CALIFORNIA ANGEL. PIZZA BIANCA, lost in a G1 her last out but, looked impressive. Jose Ortiz will get the ride on this filly for the first time. CONSUMER SPENDING, a Chad Brown trained horse, is off a stakes win. KOALA PRINCESS is another undefeated filly but will lengthen out to a Mile here from her previous starts. HAUGHTY undefeated in her first two starts, will look to capture her first stakes win after an impressive win her last out. MALAVATH, ships in from overseas, after winning a G2 stakes in France. MISE EN SCENE another foreign horse, struggled with the additional distance her last race. CALIFORNIA ANGEL looked good her last start as she returned to the turf where she’s undefeated.

Pick:

WIN: 2 CAIRO MEMORIES, 11 HAUGHTY

Given the odds, I’ll place two win bets in this race. CIARO MEMORIES has looked impressive in her first two starts and seems to be getting better with each one. Same goes for HAUGHTY who will take a step up in class but looks like she’s capable of doing so.

 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 9
  • Post Time: 4:50 PM
  • Length: 1 1/16 Miles
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Colts & Geldings | 2 Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / DD, Special DD (Fri. Race 9-Sat. Race 12), Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Jack Christopher J. Ortiz C. Brown 122 9-5
2 Jasper Great Y. Fukunaga H. Mori 122 15-1
3 Oviatt Class K. Desormeaux J. Desormeaux 122 20-1
4 Pappacap J. Bravo M. Casse 122 15-1
5 Double Thunder F. Prat T. Pletcher 122 20-1
6 American Sanctuary F. Geroux C. Davis 122 30-1
7 Giant Game J. Talamo D. Romans 122 30-1
8 Barossa J. Hernandez B. Baffert 122 10-1
9 Pinehurst J. Velazquez B. Baffert 122 8-1
10 Commandperformance I. Ortiz, Jr. T. Pletcher 122 5-1
11 Tough to Tame S. Doyle C. Davis 122 30-1
12 Corniche M. Smith B. Baffert 122 5-2

LATE SCRATCH: 1 JACK CHRISTOPHER (via @TheMichelleYu on Twitter)

Race Preview:

JACK CHRISTOPHER the undefeated two year old colt enters this race as the morning line favorite at 9-5. He won the G1 Champagne Stakes his last out defeating COMMANDPERFORMANCE. JASPER GREAT won his only start in Japan but not much else is known about this horse. CORNICHE is also undefeated in his two starts. He won the G1 American Pharaoh his last out defeating PAPPACAP and OVIATT CLASS. PINEHURST is also undefeated and off a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity.

Pick:

WIN: 10 COMMANDPERFORMANCE

SECOND CHOICE: 9 PINEHURST

I like this jockey change back to Irad Ortiz Jr here on this Pletcher trained horse. I think if he’s given a better ride he has a shot to get revenge against JACK CHRISTOPHER here. My second choice would be PINEHURST in this race who’s also getting a jockey change. This Baffert trained horse already has a G1 win under his belt and has a shot of capturing his second in this race.

 

 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Race Information:

  • Track: Del Mar (Del Mar, CA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 10
  • Post Time: 5:30 PM
  • Length: 1 Mile
  • Purse: $1,000,000
  • Division: Colts & Geldings | 2 Years Old
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta, Special DD (Fri. Race 10-Sat. Race 11), Super High 5

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER WGT M/L
1 Modern Games (IRE) W. Buick C. Appleby 122 5-1
2 Albahr (GB) L. Dettori C. Appleby 122 6-1
3 Dakota Gold L. Saez D. Gargan 122 8-1
4 Tiz the Bomb B. Hernandez, Jr. K. McPeek 122 8-1
5 Slipstream J. Rosario C. Clement 122 12-1
6 Mackinnon J. Hernandez D. O’Neill 122 8-1
7 Great Max (IRE) J. Velazquez M. Bell 122 20-1
8 Glounthaune (IRE) R. Moore A. O’Brien 122 12-1
9 Stolen Base U. Rispoli M. Maker 122 20-1
10 Portfolio Company F. Prat C. Brown 122 6-1
11 Grafton Street T. Gaffalione M. Casse 122 15-1
12 Credibility M. Smith M. Casse 122 30-1
13 Coinage F. Geroux M. Casse 122 15-1
14 Dubawi Legend (IRE) J. Doyle H. Palmer 122 4-1

 

Race Preview:

MODERN GAMES gets shipped in from the UK for this race after back to back wins. ALBAHR is fresh off a win in the G1 Summer Stakes defeating GRAFTON STREET. DAKOTA GOLD is undefeated in his two starts. His most notable win was his last trip in the Nownownow Stakes. TIZ THE BOMB has won three of his four starts including the G2 Bourbon Stakes his last start. SLIPSTREAM increases in distance this race after winning the G3 Futurity Stakes at 6 F. MACKINNON has won his last three starts at a Mile including two stakes races. PORTFOLIO COMPANY has two 2nd place finishes his last starts in the G2 Pilgrim Stakes and G3 With Anticipation Stakes. DUBAWI LEGEND is another horse that gets shipped in but will increase in distance from his normal 7 F.

Pick:

WIN: 2 ALBAHR 

At 6-1, I like this gelding a lot. He’s won his last four including a comparable race his last out. Dettori will also stay on the mount with a horse he’s won twice on in the past.

 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NHL Preview & Picks – November 4, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
-

The Jack Eichel saga has finally reached it’s conclusion in Buffalo. Eichel was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights earlier today who, desperately need some offensive production. The Sabres in return got Alex Tuch who is a Western New York native and Peyton Krebs who played with Dylan Cozens on Canada’s world junior squad. The deal also includes some draft picks but overall it was a fairly even trade.

Moving onto tonight, we 9 games that feature a few major matchups. The 5-1-3 Washington Capitals will travel to Florida to take on the 8-0-1 Panthers. We have an in-state rivalry game between the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins. Other interesting matchups include Tampa Bay vs Toronto and St. Louis vs San Jose.

 

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens

Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Islanders -140 -135 -1.5 (+180) o5.5 (+120)
Montreal Canadiens +120 +115 +1.5 (-220) u5.5 (-140)

 

The New York Islanders have gotten off to a slow start this season with just a 3-2-2 record after making the Eastern Conference finals last year. The biggest issue for the Islanders has been their lack of offensive production. They currently rank T24th in GPG averaging just 2.43. Josh Bailey leads the team with just 5 points while Barzal, Beauvillier, Nelson, and Wahlstrom trail him with 4.

Despite their lack of offense, New York’s defense has been solid to start the season. They’re giving up an average of 2.43 goals per game which is 6th in the league. Ilya Sorokin, who is expected to start tonight, has also been good this year with a +4.0 GSAx.

The Canadians have also struggled to find the back of the net averaging just 2.0 goals per game which ranks 30th. This could be partly due to their lack of shots on goals, averaging just 28.3 per game. They rank in the bottom three of nearly every offensive category (GPG, SOG, PP %, Shooting %).

To make matters worse for them, they have also struggled defensively. They’re giving up 3.09 goals per game and allowing the 11th most shots against. Jake Allen has been confirmed the starter for tonight. He comes into this game with a 3-6 record, 2.58 GAA, .914 SV%, and a +2.6 GSAx. Individually he has played well but, hasn’t received any help.

 

PICK: NEW YORK ISLANDERS (-135), UNDER 5.5 (-140)

This game sets up for the Islanders to try and correct their offensive woes. They face a Montreal team that has looked out of sorts all season without Carey Price. To make matters worse they are missing their second leading scorer in Johnathan Drouin. The Islanders are currently on a 13-game road trip and have played just once in the last 10 days. They may come out slow but, are well rested and have no injuries.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NBA Play- BOS at MIA

By
Kristobal Lundborg
-

The Miami Heat are one of the NBA’s hottest teams, but so far today we’re seeing money coming in on Boston, driving the line down form it’s -8 open to to -6.5. That’ll keep me off the full game but when I look at these two teams’ records in the 1H so far, Miami is 3rd best at 5-1 and while Boston sits at just 3-5. The Heat are averaging 60.7 1H PPG to the Celtics’ 54.5. The 1H total is set right at 104.5 so I’ll look to the 1H -3.5 instead where the numbers still favor Miami. I love backing teams that play defense in the NBA, because even if they have an off shooting night they should be able to hang.

No doubt Boston will get up for this game, but we know they’re having some chemistry issues. Boston’s most glaring issue to me hasn’t been their lack of sharing the ball, but it has been their lack of a big man thanks to former GM Danny Ainge’s prioritization of Guard play. C Robert Williams has played well for the Celtics but Bam has a clear edge inside. It’s worth an action play for this bettor to take the Heat 1H minus the points, unless news comes out that Bam is not playing, which I’m not seeing.

MIA 1H -3.5 (-117) 1.17u

 

NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Prop Play

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We are 11-5 in TikTok Props!

@theoddsbreakers

11-5 in TikTok Prop Plays #Freeplays #Sportsbetting #thursdaynightfootball

♬ NFL On FOX Theme – Slumber Girlz U Rock

1...444445446...664Page 445 of 664