HOMEWOOD, AL - DECEMBER 18: Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats during the Chick-fil-A Birmingham Classic between the Samford Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide on December 18, 2019 at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
I started the week off with a nice 2-1, +1.45u night. My free play didn’t come through, and I need to sharpen those up. However, with a 2-0 night on my premium plays, my premium record moved to 68-31-1(68.5%), +51.55u. In addition to this free play, I have a CBB premium play up for tonight. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Alabama -21(-110) vs South Alabama–6:30 PM CT
Alabama has one of the top offenses in College Basketball; through 2 games, they average 98.5 PPG. What’s even more impressive is that each of their first two opponents(Louisiana Tech and South Dakota State) are fringe tournament teams with high expectations for this season. If Alabama can blow each of those opponents out, they shouldn’t have much trouble with South Alabama tonight. The Jaguars are ranked 258th by KenPom, with both their offensive and defensive ratings hovering around that 250 range. Not only is Alabama’s offense efficient, but they also are Top 15 in AdjustedTempo, which should provide them ample opportunities to drop 100 tonight. I think the Tide are almost 30 points better than South Alabama; I expect a beatdown in Tuscaloosa tonight.
*CBB(1u): Saint Louis/Memphis UNDER 143.5(-110)–7 PM CT
Memphis enters this season with Final Four aspirations, and they certainly have the talent to do so. However, the verdict is still out on how good of a coach Penny Hardaway is. Nobody is doubting his recruiting abilities, but he has yet to take it a step further and turn that talent into consistent W’s. Oftentimes, Memphis has looked sloppy offensively under Hardaway’s leadership, but what sets this team apart is their defensive prowess. KenPom has the Tigers as the 3rd best defense in the country, and considering Saint Louis’s offense falls outside the Top 100, I think Memphis will be able to shine on that end of the floor tonight. With that said, Saint Louis is no slouch themselves defensively; through 3 games, the Billikens have allowed just 53 PPG. Given what I said about Memphis’s sloppiness earlier, I believe the Saint Louis defense will be able to create more disruption than this total implies. I expect a competitive game that stays considerably under the total.
We have a great show for you today! Had some technical difficulties so Dave won’t be on this episode. First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 11 and NFL week 10 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 12 and NFL Week 11. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 12! Then, Kiev talks some fantasy football. Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev gives out his and Dave’s nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Happy Monday Night all!! We have started the CBB season 4-3 and are 28-14 in our last 42 CFB plays! I have a premium CBB play for you below. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!
The Furman Paladins and the Belmont Bruins meet tonight at Curb Event Center. Furman is 2-0 so far this year after wins versus North Greenville and Louisville. As for Belmont, they lost their opener but then beat Evansville in their last outing to make them 1-1 on the young season. In 2 games, the Paladins are averaging 99 points per game and 47% from the field and 47.2% from three but that was against defenses allowing 94 points per game, 46.8% from the field and 45.7% from 3. Belmont, on the the other hand, has played defenses allowing just 65 points per game, 43% from the field and 30% from 3. Saying that, the Bruins have played the better strength of schedule (again, small sample) but have played well scoring 80.5 points per game after hitting close to 50 percent of their shots from the field (49.6%) The Bruins are also 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 17th in the country in near-proximity field goal percentage at 64.77%. The Paladins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win while the Bruins are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win. Belmont should cover this game and win by 8-10 points. Take Belmont -5.5
The NHL only has two games going tonight. The Islanders take on the Lightning and the Red Wings travel to Columbus to face the Blue Jackets.
New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: Sportsnet, MSG+
New York Islanders: 5-4-2, 8th Metropolitan (5-4-2 Away)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 7-3-3, 4th Atlantic (4-1-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
New York Islanders
+115
+115
+1.5 (-220)
o5.5 (+115)
Tampa Bay Lightning
-135
-135
-1.5 (+180)
u5.5 (-135)
These two teams know each other very well as they have met in the Eastern Conference finals the past two years. The Lightning have bested them in both of those series in route to back to back Stanley Cup victories.
The Islanders travel to Tampa for game 12 of their unprecedented 13 game season-opening road trip. They’ll take on the Panthers tomorrow night before heading home and having a few days off. New York is coming off back to back loss against Minnesota and New Jersey. They faced the Devils last week Thursday getting shutout on the road 4-0. However, they’ve had a three days off since then and look to make a strong push here against a team that’s had their number in the past.
They haven’t had a great start to the season as they sit in the basement of the Metropolitan division. The biggest issue this team has is their inability to generate and capitalize on scoring opportunities. They are dead last in high danger scoring chances and third to last in expected goals for (23.12).
Despite their offensive struggles, they have been great on defense allowing the sixth least goals per game (2.55). The Isles have a -5.05 goals against above expected which ranks near the top of the league in terms of team defenses. Ilya Sorokin is expected to get the start in net tonight posting a +5.3 GSAx on the year.
Tampa Bay has turned things around after their up and down start to the season. They have won five of their last seven games coming into tonight. On Saturday they defeated the Panthers in OT 3-2, behind a stellar performance from Vasilevskiy.
As I mentioned before, the Bolts struggled early, specifically at home but, have been much better as of late. They have are tied with the fourteenth most goals per game (3.0) despite Nikita Kucherov’s absence. Captain Steven Stamkos leads the team in points with 15 after struggling with injuries the past few years. Their Power Play continues to be mediocre without Kucherov up top. They haven’t been as potent as the Tampa Bay teams of past on offense this year.
The Lightning are also giving up the seventeenth most goals per game (2.92). Tampa’s defense has always been their weakest part and continue to be middle of the road. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been confirmed as the starter tonight. He seems to have found his footing after a rough start to the season with a +5.7 GSAx.
PICK: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-135)
This should be a low scoring affair tonight in Tampa given the offensive struggles both teams have had. Sorokin and Vasilevskiy have been playing well as of late however, both offenses do have the ability to randomly get hot so the total is a stay away for me. The Bolts have been great at home as of late and seem to be hitting their stride. I’m taking Tampa at home tonight in a close one.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Tonight we have an exciting divisional game between the Rams and 49ers with SF at home after their BYE, and the Rams looking ahead to a BYE. In Sean McVay’s tenure, the Rams are 4-0 SU the week before a BYE and we all know the 49ers atrocious home ATS record since Shannahan has been the coach in SF. Looking at Shannahan’s record off of a BYE vs Divisional teams he is 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U. His decent ATS record in these situations has me worried about looking at this one +3.5 because McVay has done very well in division away games at 9-5 ATS.
So I’ll look towards the total that has been pushed up from 47 to a juiced 50. There are concerns with a 49ers defense that is banged up for sure. The Rams defense has performed well so far, but BOTH teams remain in the top ten in Defensive YPP (yards per play), which has me leaning to the under. McVay is 8-6 O/U in divisional away games but with an avg total of 47. Will wait until closer to game time in case total creeps up as majority of money and tickets are on the over, ok with a small play on a divisional game sitting at 50.
Welcome to Monday. Started off hot in college basketball last week before a tumble and crash on Thursday puts us at 4-7 to start the year. I realized I need to back off CBB a little bit later in the week as I finish my football prep. We went 197-174-5 in 2020/2021 in CBB so we’ll get it turned around.
Here’s two free plays to start your week off.
San Francisco (-20) vs Samford O/U 151
First off we take a look at The Dons of San Francisco taking on the Bulldogs of Samford in The City by the Bay. Samford has started 2-0 with easy wins over “powerhouses” Maryville TN and Springhill. San Francisco is also undefeated with wins over LIU, Prairie View A&M and Davidson. They were dominant in the first two matchups, but had to hold on after being up by as many as 14 in the second half vs Davidson.
Bucky McMillan’s Samford teams want to get out and run. The were 7th in the country last year in team possessions per game. They took 75 FG attempts vs Maryville and 67 vs Springhill. They are loaded with players who like to run coming in from transfer portal and also in a strange recruiting story landed the #60 recruit in the nation in Wesley Cardet Jr. who is averaging 14.5 ppg so far.
The Dons don’t play quite as fast, but feature one of best players out west in Jamaree Bouyea. He was all WCC first team last year averaging 17.3 PPG. This is a team that has gotten very good looks at the basket so far and are shooting 53.7%, but has also been hurt by turnovers as they are averaging just over 17 Per game to start the year. They will be more than happy to push the pace here and run with Samford.
The Total takes it all into account and is already on high side, but I like the over here in a game where I can see the Don’s getting over 90 and Samford pushing the pace enough to come along for the ride.
Gimme the over 151 for 1.5 Units.
UMKC vs Missouri (-11.5) O/U 128.5
UMKC will take on Mizzou tonight in Columbia. UMKC is coming off 2 losses to Big Ten opponents in Iowa and Minnesota and will face their third straight power 5 opponent to open the season. Missouri was able to win their season opener vs Central Michigan.
For UMKC the Fighting Kangaroos are picked to finish sixth in the Summit League this year. They are led by Josiah Allick who looked good against Minnesota putting up 21 points, but he struggled vs Iowa going only 1 of 4 from the floor. This is a team that wants to slow the pace down and try to grind out wins.
Missouri was missing 3 key players in their first game and are hoping all can be available tonight. Dajuan Gordon (suspension) should be a good role player for them coming over from Kansas St. where he averaged 9.1 ppg and 5.5 rpg last year. He is also a huge influence on defense. They had a 19 point lead against CMU before letting it get within 4. A nice finish put the final tally back at 12. Javon Pickett their only senior should emerge as a leader for Cuonzo Martin’s squad and they will need it to bring the younger players along. He put up 18 points in the opener.
After watching this UMKC team vs a Minnesota squad with basically no major conference talent I struggle to see how they keep this game anywhere close. Missouri isn’t Iowa, but they aren’t Minnesota either. I put this spread closer to -15 so I think there is value here at -11.5.
I had a pretty mediocre weekend overall but did finish 5-3 on my premium plays. Halfway through the month, I sit at 24-17, +5.97u. Tonight, I have a pair of premium plays for my members(one CBB, one NBA) in addition to this NBA free play. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Hawks 1H -6.5(-105) vs Magic–6:40 PM CT
Atlanta(5-9) has been a huge disappointment to start the season and is on the heels of a 6 game losing streak to start the month. However, the Hawks came back from a 4 game road trip and pounded the Bucks by 20 yesterday(with Giannis in the lineup). With that sign of life, I think we’re seeing a buy sign to hop back on the Hawks as they look to inch closer to .500. The Magic(3-10) are a bottom-dweller in the NBA and just had a 1-4 home stand; they lost those 4 games by an average of 15 PPG. The path is clear for the Hawks to carry over the momentum from yesterday’s win and take a double-digit lead into the half. I’m playing Hawks 1H instead of Hawks FG for the simple fact that this is the 2nd game of a back-to-back and the Magic are likely to try to take some positive out of this one in the second half.
