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November 15th Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Feb 16, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andre Curbelo (5) celebrates after his team scores against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at the State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Premium Plays(August 30th-present): 66-31-1, +49.05u

*CBB(1.5u): Marquette TT UNDER 69.5(-120) vs Illinois–6 PM CT

Illinois has what is widely regarded as the best defense in College Basketball entering this season. They enter a scary matchup against Marquette and first year HC Shaka Smart. Marquette fits Smart perfectly, and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Golden Eagles find a way to keep this one close. However, that is unlikely to come via a high-scoring game. Shaka Smart teams are much more defensive-oriented, and he has little offensive firepower here in year 1 that warrants this high of a TT. This would be the equivalent of posting a TT of 24 against Georgia’s defense in CFB this season. I’ll take the Marquette TT Under as my best bet for tonight and trust what is considered the top defense in the country to come through for us. 

*NBA(1u): Celtics -2.5(-110) @ Cavaliers–6:10 PM CT

The Celtics dropped one to the Cavs just 2 days ago after blowing a 12 point lead entering the 4th quarter. Boston held a 14 point halftime lead and yielded just 38 points through the first 24 minutes to Cleveland. Now, with a day of rest in between games, Boston has the perfect chance to make things right and avenge that gut-wrenching loss. The NBA regular season is all about motivation, and there’s plenty of it to go around in that Boston locker room tonight. I love playing on the team that loses the first game of a double-header against the same team to bounce back in Game 2, and that’s even more true when that team is superior. Cleveland(9-5) has had some success to start the season, but they have failed to score 100 points in their last 3 games and are clearly missing G Collin Sexton. I like the Celtics to bounce back tonight. 

Rob Vinciletti: Monday NCAAB Power System Play + Monday night Football Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Monday night Rare 6* NFL With 100% Monday night Specific System headlines along with NCAAB Platinum Supreme Total and NBA. NCAAB Comp Play below

The NCAAB Comp Play for Monday is on Belmont -7 at 7:30 eastern. The Bruins bounced back from an opening game loss to Ohio with a Big blowout win over Evansville. Now they welcome in a 2-0 Furman team that upset Louisville as a 9 point dog in overtime despite shooting under 40%. The Palladins have failed to cover 6 straight playing off a spread win while Belmont has covered  7 of 8 as a home favorite and the last 5 on Mondays. Expect a higher scoring game here with Belmont getting the cover. A rare 6* From an Undefeated Monday night Specific NFL System dating to 1990 headlines tonight along with an NCAAB Platinum Supreme Total and another NBA Power System Play. See us on goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we start the week fast. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with the Belmont Bruins. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Premiums, 11.15

By
Chris R. Farley
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Wellllllllllllll what can I say about my performance in the NFL Sunday? I guess for now the best idea is to follow me and Steve’s Circa Picks; those went 4-0! At a closer look, there’s been some silly BS happening:

  • The WFT scored 29 points Sunday. Tom Brady and the champion Bucs only scored 19, naturally (SARCASM), so there goes the over.
  • The Patriots scored 45 points, on their own, against a celebrated Browns defense, on a cold and windy day in Foxboro. Give me a break.
  • The Broncos, at home, shit the bed against an Eagles team with a split personality.
  • All of a sudden Mahomes and the Chiefs offense woke up against a Raiders team at home in a great spot for redemption. Gotta love it.
Whatever. This is what the NFL does to us (and pretty much everyone) every single year. Moving on because, as always, we know we win long term.
Tonight’s plays:
  • Knicks -4 **
  • Kings -4.5 **
  • Rams -4 **
  • Rams + Kings parlay (+129, putting 3 units on this)
Looking into CBB a little today – will send picks later if I find any value.
Chris

NFL Week 10 Circa Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
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Bill Belichik standing on the sidelines.

 

Hey All! Steve and I are 29-15-1 in Circa thus far and we’re right there in the top level of competition! Follow our plays EVERY Sunday here at TheOddsBreakers! Here are our top 5 NFL plays submitted to the Circa contest for Week 10!

  • Patriots -2.5
  • Cowboys -9
  • Saints +3
  • Washington +9.5
  • Rams -4

Premiums 11.14

By
Chris R. Farley
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Good day yesterday in CFB! 5-2-1 overall, according to my count. Still flabbergasted that Valanciunas didn’t get over 20 points but whatever. The guy barely attempted to shoot the ball most of the game. I think they used him as bait. Either way, the past few days have been good to us and, knock on wood/cross your fingers, I have a feeling today will be really good for us in the NFL, too. Here are my two NBA plays today:

  • OKC +9 ** (the Thunder keep on getting lined without respect and this is a tough road spot for the Nets, on the road, on a Sunday. Sundays are always weird in the NBA. All Thunder for me)
  • Blazers team total under 103.5 points * (the Nuggets haven’t allowed a team to score over 100 points in 4 games and Lillard is out)

November 14th NFL Premium Play

By
Michael Fordham
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Week 11 CFB Premium Plays: 5-2, +3.8u

Premium Record: 66-30-1, +50.7u

*NFL(1.5u): Broncos -1.5(-110) vs Eagles–3:25 PM CT

I consistently rate the Eagles significantly lower than the oddsmakers do. This is a tough spot for Philly traveling to play on the road, much less in the mile high altitude. The Broncos curb stomped the Cowboys last week and enter this game off 2 straight wins. If Denver can make Dak Prescott look as silly as he did last week, there’s no telling what they’ll do to Jalen Hurts(who I’m very low on). People seem to forget that the expectations for Philly were astronomically low coming into the season; now you’re asking them to essentially go win this game on the road in unfavorable conditions? No chance. I’ll lay the point-and-a-half with Denver. 

NFL Week 10 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell speaks with the media before the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 28, 2021 in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Last 2 Weeks NFL Sides/Totals/Props 16-9 +12.7U
Premium Sides/Totals:  55-52-1 -7.8U 
Premium Teasers:  9-6 +5U
Premium Props:  12-7 up 4U
To become a member, please Click Here!

Atlanta vs Dallas -8 O/U 55

This is a game where two teams are in two different situations.  Dallas is coming off of a devastating loss to the Broncos while Atlanta is coming off of a huge win vs their division rival, the New Orleans Saints.   Let the let down begin!   Even without looking at this situation creatively, Atlanta’s defense ranks 26th in EPA per play while Dallas ranks number 5 on offensive EPA per play even after that Broncos debacle.  Dallas also has the advantage rushing the ball at 4.8 yards per attempt while Atlanta allows 4.4. The Cowboys also have a +.5 net yard per play advantage on a much harder schedule.  My power ratings has Dallas a 11.5 favorite.  When running the efficiency numbers, I have this game Dallas 34 to Atlanta 31.   Take dem Boyz to rebound.

Dallas -8 – 3 stars

Detroit vs Pittsburgh -6.5 O/U 42.5

Well this is a game where both teams are also in much different spots here.  Pittsburgh is on short rest after coming out of Ref-gate vs the Bears winning by 2 points.  Unfortunately for the Steelers, they lost another top wide receiver in Chase Claypool for a while.   Detroit hasn’t won a game yet this year but they have played some good teams close and they are coming off of their bye week.   Now if you look at the numbers in a normal situation, the Steelers should be beating this Lions team easily, but the Steelers have a terrible offense now with injuries, and that is part of the reason that you see such a low total here.  Both my power rating and my advanced metrics have this game around a 10 point spread but this is where the creative handicap comes in.   Pittsburgh will be just happy with a win after losing guys to injury while the Lions should play out of their minds for Dan Campbell after the bye.   Now for the last update, Big Ben is out meaning backup Mason Rudolph will be in and he is about a 3 point downgrade here.  I think that Detroit has an opportunity to win this game outright and I am roaring like the Lions this week.

Detroit +6.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle

6 Pt Teaser – Dallas to -2 with Cleveland to +8.5 – 2 stars

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NFL Power System Play + AFC West Game of the Year Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Sunday card has the AFC West Game of the Year on Sunday night along with an Executive Level TIER 1 Total and a 5* Blowout, there is also NBA and NCAAB. Comp Play below

The NFL Comp Play For Sunday is on the Detroit Lions plus the 6-7 points against Pittsburgh. The Lions have covered 8 of 9 with rest, 14 of 20 off a 10+ point home loss and the last 5 off a spread loss. Teams who started 0-4 or worse have rest off a loss where they scored 7 or less have covered over 80% long term. The Steelers are on a short week and are 0-8 ats as a favorite and have failed to cover the last 4 vs losing teams. They have a big game in LA against the Chargers next week and may be looking ahead here. Big card up led by the AFC West Game of the Year, Executive LEVEL TIER 1, Early 5* Blowout, TOP NBA and NCAAB and more. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the comp play. Take the Points with Detroit. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Free CBB Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, November 13th

By
Nick Hub
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What a day!! We have a loaded Saturday slate full of College Basketball and College Football all day and night!! We have started the CBB season 4-1 and are 28-12 in our last 40 CFB plays and 8-2 in our last 10 plays overall! I have a premium CBB play for you below.  Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!

Get all of my CFB, CBB and MLB Premium Plays HERE 

The New Mexico Lobos and the Colorado Buffaloes meet today from the Coors Events Center.  The New Mexico Lobos will be looking to build on their 99-92 win over FAU last time out.  The Lobos shot 53% from the field, 52.2% from three and 73.9% from the foul line in the winning effort.  The Colorado Buffaloes will be looking to build on a 94-90 overtime win over Montana State last time out. The Buffs shot 50.9% from the field, 47.4% from three and 73% from the foul line in the winning effort.  According to Haslametrics, The tempo in this particular contest should be more on the slow side of things. New Mexico (210th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Colorado (290th) would rather maintain a slower pace.  New Mexico head coach, Richard Pitino, was the Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach last season and averaged 72 points per game with a focus on defense.  This New Mexico squad has less offensive talent, to say the least, than the Gophers team last year.  My point is that 99 points scored in their first game may be an outlier.  Colorado also only brought back 3 of their top 8 scorers from a year ago. I expect both offenses to regress closer to the mean in this game and keep it under the projected total.  Take Under 148.9

Get all of my CFB, CBB and MLB Premium Plays HERE 

Week 10: NFL Free Play

By
Steve Norman
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Week 10 is among us and it is time to get back to our winning week norms.  Last week we had an onslaught of wild upsets and massive let downs.  There will be ups and downs and we are now ready to make the climb back up.  Let’s have a huge week 10!

Current Record: 82-51 +35.79 Units on the season

Browns @ Patriots Under 45

We have two stingy defenses squaring up in what I believe will set up for a low scoring affair.  The last 3 games the Patriots have held opponents to a combined 615 yards in the air, including the Chargers with Justin Herbert.  They have been vulnerable in their run defense allowing an average of 113.3 yards per game since week 2.  However, Browns will now be without Nick Chubb and heavily relying on D’Ernest Johnson who we saw on TNF against the Broncos.  This plays well into the hands of Bill Belichick and the chess match type of game we will see come Sunday.

Patriots are now every bit in the playoff hunt (and dare I say division title?).  Their defense has continued to improve weekly.  Now the Browns are going to ask their 3rd string running back to effectively pick up and protect Mayfield from Belichick’s defense schemes and hidden blitz packages.  Good luck.  It is no secret the Browns move the ball most effectively on the ground, but that just melts clock.  Exactly what we want when taking the under.  I do not foresee the quick scores, big strikes, and break out runs this week from either team.

On the other side of the ball the Patriots and Mac Jones are not exactly lighting up through the air.  Last week in the Patriots dominate win Mac Jones went 12/18 122 1 td and 1 int.  He is a game manager at this point in his Rookie career, and a good one at that.  Both of these teams will be jockeying for field position, relying on their run games, and keeping the other side at bay with their stellar defensive play.  Drives will tighten up and fizzle out in the redzone and what normally would be Td’s will turn to Fg’s in this one.  Under 45.

Thanks for your support and good luck!

 

 

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