Had a losing weekend in CFB for the first time this year last weekend. Looking to rebound starting tonight. 50-45 Record so far up just over 12 units. Get all my premium plays available at Theoddsbreakers.com.
Navy visits Memphis tonight at The Liberty Bowl. (Line is Memphis -10.5 and 56) Navy comes in at 1-4 with Memphis at 3-3.
Memphis has been very proficient through the air so far on offense this year. QB Seth Henigan is averaging 323 yards per game with 14 TD and 3 INT. Overall on offense they are averaging just shy of 500 yards per game at 497.5. They are also at 16th in Yards per play on the year at 6.77.
Navy’s option offense took a few games to get rolling, as they only scored ten points combined vs Marshall and Air Force. The last few games have been better as they are averaging 26 points per game the last 3. This includes a nice win over UCF where they put up 348 yards on the ground.
The key here are the defenses. I don’t have much faith in either of them in these particular match-ups. Navy has struggled against the pass. The can’t get any pressure on the QB, and they lost both starting CBs last week. One to injury and one for targeting. The way Memphis throws the ball I don’t see Navy slowing them down. Memphis is ranked 116th in total yards allowed per game at 457.3. Last week against Tulsa they were gashed for 235 yards on the ground against a rush heavy offense. I see the same thing happening with Navy.
Even with Navy’s slow methodical offense they will get some good chunk plays and will move the ball, and Memphis will move it with ease. I’ve got this game much higher at 38-28, Take the over 56, 2 Unit Play
I won both of my CFB plays back on Tuesday, putting my October record at 25-13-1, +14.94u. Tonight, I am rolling with a lone MLB free play; premium members will receive my Week 7 CFB Premium Card this evening, with my CFB free plays following tomorrow morning. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*MLB(1u): Dodgers/Giants UNDER 7(-120)–8:07 PM CT
As expected, this series has gone the distance. Each team has been able to pick up a crucial road win, sending this to a deciding Game 5 back in San Francisco. Being that it is a standalone MLB game, people are going to want an exciting, high-scoring game; unfortunately for them, I think we’re in for a pitcher’s duel. Giants SP Logan Webb tossed a gem in Game 1 of this series, going 7.2 scoreless innings and striking out 10 Dodgers. At home this season, Webb’s numbers are nothing short of incredible(1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9), so there’s no reason to believe he won’t have success against what is an overvalued Dodgers lineup. However, Julio Urias was just as solid on the mound this season; in addition to being a 20 game winner, Urias recorded a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 32 starts. The Giants swing it very well at home, but they do so at a much higher rate against right-handed pitching. Given Urias allowed less than 1 HR/9 this season, I think the Giants lineup will be held at bay. I don’t typically endorse full game Unders, but given that these were 2 of the top 3 teams in bullpen WHIP during the regular season, I can trust each in this spot tonight.
Some people liked my last NFL Report (four people), which were the results from the previous week to show essentially that the money was still sharp so far this year. Now, that report was done the Tuesday after those games, these numbers- which are dynamic, are as of Thursday morning for the upcoming week.
Despite my inability to get my BEAUTIFUL, NEAT -yet rudimentary- Excel charts on the site, I am posting (best I know how) to throw some s*** against the wall for those who like a simple summary of what the market likes so far this week. These charts may get cut off on phone views, so check it out from a computer if you get a chance. These are numbers I got from the “Wagertalk Live Odds” screen, which I think are the most accurate.
How their algorithms are set up, how truly accurate they are, how much of it are head fakes by people with a ton of money… I don’t know. So take it with a grain of salt. But, my last report did show the money hit 11-5 on totals and 10-6 on the spread back in week 4. I did not account for the popular plays that week and how that did. I need to throw some charts in for that side as well down the road.
What I have here is how much of the tickets are being reported on the SPREAD versus the money, and ranked them by how much of a difference there is between the two.
SPREADS…
TEAM
TIX %
MONEY %
$ Diff.
LAR
73%
93%
20%
HOU
63%
82%
19%
PIT
67%
81%
14%
CLE
63%
74%
11%
BUF
84%
93%
9%
NE
79%
87%
8%
KC
79%
86%
7%
DET
64%
68%
4%
MIN
52%
54%
2%
LAC
96%
98%
2%
JAX
51%
51%
0%
GB
69%
69%
0%
DEN
71%
52%
-19%
DAL
71%
51%
-20%
For the spread chart, we see 20% more of the money is on the Rams to cover than there are tickets saying as much. And there is actually 20% more money on the other side of the Dallas game to cover.
TOTALS…
GAME
TIX %
MONEY %
$ Diff.
BUF/ TEN
o60%
u68%
128%
SEA/ PIT
u63%
o57%
120%
DAL/ NE
o81%
o99%
18%
HOU/ IND
o82%
o95%
13%
ARI/ CLE
u80%
u90%
10%
MIN/ CAR
u72%
u78%
6%
LAR/ NYG
u77%
o83%
6%
GB/ CHI
u94%
u99%
5%
MIA/JAX
o80%
o89%
5%
CIN/ DET
u64%
u67%
3%
LAC/ BAL
o80%
o80%
0%
KC/ WAS
o83%
o82%
-1%
TB/ PHI
o57%
o52%
-5%
LVR/ DEN
u84%
u64%
-20%
For the TOTALS chart, we see actually 128% more money on the UNDER than tickets are on the OVER in the Buffalo/ Tennessee game. For the Raiders game, we actually have 20% more money on the OVER than the tickets that are heavy on the UNDER.
In the last report I did, I showed how the money was different than the tickets. And I showed how the side the money was on the right side for the most part. Better than I did that week and I had a decent week that week. Take this info as you will. For me, I look at it. And I have my own opinions. Market info does factor into my handicap, but it is not everything. For example, it is funny at times how a 99% match of tickets and money on a game doesn’t hit (NE v. TB anyone?). Anyways, for you four people out there, enjoy and good luck out there!
We have a HUGE show for you today! Raphael Esparza @VSIDocSports and Mybookie.ag comes on to break down a huge college and NFL slate of football games! First, we have another very special guest in Carson Brady @SportsWageringU to discuss a NEW valuable school for people who want to break into the sports betting industry to learn all of the ins and outs of sports investing as well as the industry as a whole! This will be a very valuable tool for beginners all the way past intermediate sports bettors to sharpen their skills for an anticipated larger ROI. Next, Raphael comes on and the guys jump right into some of his hot prop bets going on right now as well as some early Super Bowl props for 2022. Kiev even has a prop suggestion for the Super Bowl that might make the card over at MyBookie.ag. Then, Raphael and Kiev get right into some HUGE college football games with some FREE plays. After that, the guys discuss the FULL slate of NFL games with some more FREE PICKS for NFL week 6. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is only 2-3 so far. Next, Kiev talks about sharp money for the games this weekend. Finally, Kiev gives out a free UFC on ESPN play for Saturday night!
1:45 – 21:48 Carson Brady for Sports Wagering University
21:50 – 1:35:00 College and NFL Football with Raphael Esparza and Kiev O’Neil
1:35:00 – 1:39:00 Refuse to lose teaser
1:39:00 – 1:41:10 The Sharp Side of the Force
1:41:10 – 1:46:10 UFC Fight Night
NFL: New England vs Dallas – Green Bay vs Chicago and more!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 38-33 (55%), +17 units
Thursday night NFL Game of the Month headlines along with a rare 6* MLB Perfect System totals play and a College Football Platinum Supreme Totals play. NHL Comp play below
The NHL Comp play is on the Florida Panthers at 7:05 eastern. Florida has won 10 straight as a home favorite and were last seen here losing in 6 to Tampa Bay in the playoffs. Pittsburgh won their opener on Tuesday with a 6-2 win over Tampa in a game that was close late until the Lightning pulled their goalie and allowed a few empty net goals. The Penguins have dropped 3 of 4 here and the host team has won 13 of 18 and the favorite 9 of 12 in the series. Look for the Panthers to take down the Penguins tonight. On Thursday a Powerful car is up with a 6* MLB perfect System total, the NFL Thursday night Game of the Month and a Platinum Supreme College Football totals play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the NHL Comp play. Go with Florida. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Money has come in on Phoenix in tonight’s Game 2 of the Finals, moving the Mercury from -4 to -4.5. Expected as both the Chicago Sky and Phoenix have split games in their home stands in Game 1 and 2 in their last series. Chicago has been playing very well so far in the postseason, getting everyone involved with eight players in the rotation getting double digit minutes. Phoenix has been running slightly thinner, as expected, with only 7 players in the rotation. As we are getting deeper into this postseason, the wear showed in Game 1on the Mercury side with a slightly older roster.
For the first game of this series, I was on the Sky because of their momentum coming into Phoenix who lately has done better on the road. The weird pregame presentation of the GOAT award to the Mercury’s Taurasi only motivated the Sky to handle that game easily. Although I think Phoenix has the will and capability to prevent a 0-2 deficit in this series I don’t expect Chicago to let this one come easy. Taurasi also has recently welcomed a newborn to her family so perhaps could be a distraction. It’s an angle that usually we take on the first game back, but I’ll still take the extra 1/2 point in this one and like the Sky to keep it close.
