- FIU out-gained Charlotte 538 to 378 yet lost 45-33. A 1-0 turnover ratio hurt and some of that was garbage yards.
- Arkansas out-gained Ole Miss 676 to 611 yet lost 52-51. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt.
- Duke out-gained Georgia Tech 489 to 440 yet lost 31-27. They also won the turnover battle 1-2 but bad field position and efficiency hurt them.
- North Carolina out-gained Florida State 432 to 383 yet lost 35-25. A 1-0 turnover ratio and 12 penalties killed them.
- Syracuse out-gained Wake Forest 514 to 426 yet lost 40-37 in overtime. Equal turnovers and just bad field position hurt them.
- Miami OH out-gained Eastern Michigan 385 to 257 yet lost 13-12. Equal turnovers and bad red zone efficiency hurt them.
- Western Michigan out-gained Ball State 376 to 375 yet lost 45-20 as a 12.5 point favorite. A 4-0 turnover ratio did it.
- BYU out-gained Boise State 413 to 312 yet lost 26-17. A 4-0 turnover ratio did them in.
- Texas Tech out-gained TCU 558 to 498 yet lost 52-31. A horrible rush defense and bad red zone efficiency on both sides of the ball got em.
- Western Kentucky out-gained UTSA 670 to 564 yet lost 52-46. Penalties and field position got them. Equal 2-2 turnovers.
- Alabama out-gained Texas A&M 522-379 yet lost 41-38. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency got them. HUGE.
- Memphis out-gained Tulsa 614 to 417 yet lost 35 – 29. A 3-0 turnover ratio and a crazy 4th quarter did it. 30 pt 4th quarter killed my under by 2 points. Shame
College Football Week 6 Misleading Final Scores
College Football Week 7 Motivational Spots
Potential Let Down Spots:
- Texas A&M at Missouri is one for sure after beating Alabama
- Iowa hosting Purdue is somewhat a let down spot after beating Penn State but it’s also a revenge spot for Iowa from last years loss.
- Boise State hosting Air Force after beating BYU is one.
- Akron at Miami OH after beating Bowling Green is a potential let down spot.
- Kent State at Western Michigan after beating Buffalo is a potential let down spot.
- Oklahoma hosting TCU after that crazy Texas game is one.
- Northern Illinois hosting Bowling Green after beating Toledo outright.
Get Up Spots:
- Western Michigan hosting Kent State. Also bet the over.
- Oregon hosting Cal after the bye.
- Indiana hosting Michigan State after the bye.
- Alabama at Mississippi State should be angry.
- BYU at Baylor is a get up spot.
- Cincinnati has to keep blowing teams out hosting UCF.
- LSU hosting Florida to save face.
Potential Look Ahead Spots:
- Tennessee looking past Ole Miss to Alabama is possible.
CJ Cup @ Summit – Preview & Picks
The CJ Cup will take place in the United States for a second year in a row due to travel restrictions posed by COVID-19. This first three editions of this event took place at Nine Bridges Golf Club on Jeju Island, South Korea. For this weeks tournament, we have a limited field and a no cut event. This tournament is definitely the best field we’ll get in the nine-tournament PGA Tour schedule this fall. Let’s breakdown the CJ Cup and find some winners.
- Dates: October 14, 2021- October 17, 2021
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Course: The Summit Golf Club
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,431 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 78 Players | No cut
- Greens: Dominator bentgrass .090”
- Fairways: Tifway II bermudagrass overseeded with perennial ryegrass .450”
- Rough: Tifway II bermudagrass overseeded with perennial ryegrass 3”
- Purse: $9,750,000 / Winner $1.755 Million
- Fedex Cup Points: 500
- Avg. Green Size: 6,580 sq. ft
- Water Hazards: : 4 (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Bunkers: 62
Course History:
The Summit Club in Las Vegas, Nevada is a new venue on the PGA Tour so we don’t know much about it. This is one of the most elite courses in the Las Vegas area, which opened up in 2017. From the pictures, the course looks to be in immaculate conditions and an exciting tournament for the top players in the game to take part of. Since we don’t know much about the course, we’ll rely on a lot of Tom Fazio designed courses for reference.
Course Guide:
This Summit Club is a desert style course, with lush fairways and rough and a desert outline. The fairways on the course are larger than PGA average which will allow players to have some forgiveness off the tee, which means driving accuracy will be less of a factor to consider. The course also features driveable Par 4’s (#1, #5, #12) and gives the long drivers some birdie opportunities. Several Par 5’s are also reachable in 2 which will again provide some chances for eagle. There’s also only one Par 3 that is over 200 yards so players should be able to attack those pins as well. Even though the course is listed at 7,400+ yards, the elevation changes and air pressure shorten this course. As seen by previous winners, a low score will be required to win.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Tom Fazio (2007)
- Comparable Courses:
- Shadow Creek
- TPC Summerlin
- Congaree GC
- Quail Hollow
- PGA West Stadium Course
- Round 1: Thursday, October 14, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, October 15, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, October 16, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, October 17, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Sunny 62 F, 7 mp/h NNE, 22% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 62 F, 10 mp/h NE, 20% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Sunny 65 F, 6 mp/h NE, 19% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 67 F,6 mp/h ENE, 20% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Total
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Stokes Gaines: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Opportunities Gained
- Birdie or Better Percentage
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020 @ Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak (-20)
- Price: 100-1
- 2019 @ Nine Bridges: Justin Thomas (-20)
- Price: 15-2
- 2018 @ Nine Bridges: Brooks Koepka (-21)
- Price: 10-1
- 2017 @ Nine Bridges: Justin Thomas (-9)
- Price: 8-1
Picks (Outright):
- Xander Schauffele (+1400)- BetMGM
- Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
- Collin Morikawa (+1600)- Draftkings
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.08 Units
Picks (Top 10):
- Viktor Hovland (+240)- Draftkings
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 0.50 Units
Total Risk on CJ Cup: 1.58 Units
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
MLB Free Pick: Giants at Dodgers – October 12, 2021
It’s been a little while since I wrote an MLB article here at TheOddsBreakers but this is a huge game in the most interesting series of the early playoffs. The Giants continue to keep pace ahead of their rival and the Dodgers are now in a “win or go home” scenario. This should make for good TV. We’re 42-21 in our last 63 MLB free picks!
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NBA: 207-152 (58%) – MLB: 228-198 (54%) – NFL: 38-33 (54%), +17 units
Giants win (+146), 2 units: This is what the Giants have been doing all year — drifting by their foe — and I think today will mark the final leg of their most successful year in a long time. Last year’s World Champion Dodgers haven’t been able to cruise like they have in previous seasons. They earned their right to play in the postseason after a Wildcard win against the Cardinals, and now they’re down 1-2 in the NLDS against their arch-rival from San Francisco. Anthony DeSclafani (3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) has had a sensational season, but it hasn’t always been sensational against the Dodgers. In 6 outings against LAD, DeSclafani posted subpar numbers– 23.6 innings, 33 hits, 22 runs allowed — but here’s the good news: DeSclafani has maintained a sub 4.00 ERA, xERA, and xFIP all season; that’s hard to do. He limits hard contact (1.02 HR/9 innings) and has an exceptional LOB rate (78.3%). And in recent past, DeSclafani has been electric. He finished the season strong, boasting a 2.67 ERA in September, and he only permitted 2 hits and 0 runs in his last start against LAD. I trust DeSclafani, who undoubtedly wants to show out better than ever in this spot, and I trust the Giants’ considerably more dependable bullpen.
Walker Buehler (4.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) was announced for today’s showdown and to me, it reeks. I think this is a mistake by the Dodgers, and I was actually hoping they’d play Buehler for this bet. No doubt, Buehler has been the man this year for LAD. He’s been as dependable as any pitcher in MLB throughout the season, but recent history does not favor Buehler. September was by far his worst month of the year (5.40 ERA), and last time he faced the Giants he allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in just over 6 innings. On top of that, he’s coming into today’s start on only 3 days rest. As most of us probably know, “similar assignments were responsible for some of Clayton Kershaw’s worst postseason moments” (quote courtesy of the LA Times).
The Giants are not intimidated by the Dodgers, they’re poised, they’re coached extremely well, and despite what many others will tell you, I think they have the better pitcher today. I’ll take SF for 2 units and some nice + money!
NHL Opening Night – October 12, 2021
The NHL is finally back, with two games on tonight. During the off season, the NHL signed a major deal with ESPN to broadcast most games. Personally, I believe this is a great move as it’ll give the league more exposure which it desperately needs.
The first is the Penguins against the two time Stanley Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. If Tampa Bay does manage to three-peat they would be the first team to do so in a little under forty years.
The second game is the Seattle Kraken against the Vegas Golden Knights. This is the Kraken’s inaugural season against a team who is only a few years old as well. The Knights were great in their first season, making it all the way to the Stanley Cup before losing to the Washington Capitals in 2018. They have been competitive every season so far and look continue that trend.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning
The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Tampa Bay for the opening game of the 2021-22 season. The Lightning are coming off back to back Stanley Cup wins, and are currently 7-1 to win it again. This will be the first time that these teams face since October 23, 2019 due to the realignment of the divisions last year.
Pittsburgh will be without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jake Guentzel for tonight’s game. Crosby and Guentzel should return to the lineup in a few games, while Malkin is out for a few months. Pittsburgh’s game plan tonight will be to try and slow down the Lightning’s high powered offense. If they want to have a chance in tonight’s game they’re going to have to keep it low scoring. The Penguins starting goalie hasn’t been confirmed but, it’s looking like Tristan Jarry will get the start tonight.
Tampa Bay on hand will have all of their star players in action tonight. Tampa Bay lost a few key pieces (Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow) in the off season as expected but, they were able to keep their core players. They are the current team to beat in the East and have a solid chance to make another run at the cup. Andrei Vasilevskiy will most likely get the start in net after an unbelievable playoff performance.
For tonight’s game I’m looking at backing the Tampa Bay Lightning in regulation. The moneyline has shifted from (-170) to (-245) making it unbettable. Historically, Vasilevskiy has been great against the Penguins having a 3-0-0 record with a 1.65 GAA against the Penguins in the 2019-20 season. The Penguins are a good team but are not a full strength. Tampa Bay should have a sold-out crowd for the banner raising ceremony which only adds to their advantage tonight.
Picks:
- TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING TO WIN IN REGULATION -1/2 (-175)
- Risk: 1.75 Units to win 1.00 Unit
- TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING TO WIN IN REGULATION -1 (-130)
- Risk: 1.30 Units to win 1.00 Unit
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
NFL Week 5 ATS Review
Below is a full Week 5 review of every ATS Premium Pick we gave out. We’ll be creating these videos every week and they’ll always be around 10 min — check it out!
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NBA: 207-152 (58%) – MLB: 228-198 (54%) – NFL: 38-33 (54%), +17 units
Fantasy Football Week 6
Bye Weeks:
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- New York Jets
- San Francisco 49ers
Key Injuries:
- RB Clyde Edwards Helaire – Knee Injury
- WR Tyreke Hill – Knee Injury and day to day
- TE Travis Kelce – with a Stinger
- RB Saquon Barkley – Ankle sprain and is week to week.
- QB Daniel Jones – Concussion
- WR Kenny Golladay – knee
- WR Deonte Harris – Hammy
- RB Samaje Perine Covid.
- WR Ju Ju Smith-Schuster – Shoulder and on IR
- WR Quintez Cephus – Shoulder
- TE Adam Shaheen – Knee injury
- QB Russell Wilson – Finger out 6 weeks.
- RB Damien Harris – Ribs injury
Waiver Wire:
- WR John Ross for the Golladay injury.
- WR Kadarius Toney for the Golladay injury.
- WR James Washington for the JuJu Smith-Schuster injury.
- WR Rhondale Moore has been balling.
- RB Chris Evans for Samaje Perine Injury.
- RB Devonte Booker for the Saquon Barkley injury.
- RB Gary Brightwell to handcuff Booker is a thought for deep leagues.
- WR Chris Hogan for the Deonte Harris injury.
- WR Amon-Ra St Brown for the Quintez Cephus injury.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson for the Damien Harris injury.
- QB Mike Glennon if you are desperate for Daniel Jones injury.
- RB Alex Collins due to Chris Carson being banged up.
- WR Mecole Hardman for the Tyreke Hill injury.
- RB Darrel Williams for the CEH injury.
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones for the Logan Thomas missing last game.
- TE Demetrius Harris for the Maxx Williams injury.
- RB Khalil Herbert for the Bears.
Non-Starters trending up for week 6:
- RBs Devonte Freeman or Tyson Williams vs a bad Chargers run D.
- RB Antonio Gibson vs KCs bad run D.
- RB Sonny Michelle vs the NY Giants piss poor D.
- WR Devonte Smith vs Tampa’s bad pass D.
- WR Jaylen Waddle vs the Jags.
- WR Jacobi Meyers vs the Cowboys Pass D.
- WR Chase Claypool vs a bad Seattle D.
- WR Allen Robinson vs the Packers soft pass D.
- WR Rhondale Moore vs Cleveland’s pass D if their corners are out.
Busts:
- RB Miles Sanders vs Tampas rush D.
- RB James Conner vs Clevelands rush D.
- RB Damien Harris vs Dallas rush D.
- WR Adam Thielen vs a pissed off Carolina team.
- WR AJ Brown vs Buffalo’s D.
- TE Darren Waller vs Denver’s stingy D.
- WR Amari Cooper vs New England’s pass D.
Nasty Sleeper: Devonte Smith vs Tampa. He’s the main WR now for Philadelphia
October 12th CFB Free Play
I cashed my free play winner on the Giants ML(+170) last night. Today, I’ve got 2 plays in the standalone CFB game. I sent my premium members a play on the total, and I will give out my play on the side for free. My premium plays have gone 31-16-1 and netted my members +24.21u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Louisiana +5 vs App State–6:30 PM CT
Louisiana returned the most production in CFB entering this season, but they have been somewhat disappointing to start the year. They were non-competitive to open up the season against Texas(a game many pegged them to win), and while they have won their last 4 games, 3 have come by just one possession. The combined record of their last 4 opponents is just 8-14, making those close wins a little more concerning. App State is also 4-1, with their only loss coming by 2 points against Miami. The Mountaineers have also picked up quality wins against East Carolina(won by 14) and Marshall. Up to this point, it would appear that App State would be the play, but 5 is simply too many points to be giving the home team in this matchup. Louisiana has looked concerning to this point, but they have had extra time to prepare for this matchup. I would expect QB Levi Lewis to look a lot better tonight than he has at points this season. App State QB Chase Brice has had major turnover issues in the past(mainly last year at Duke), and the Ragin Cajuns defense presents a tough matchup. This game has major Sun Belt Conference implications, so I would expect a field goal game in either direction. You’re going to see a different Louisiana team tonight than you have up to this point this season.
October 12th Premium CFB Play
In addition to playing the total in tonight’s CFB game, I also gave out a free play on Louisiana +5. Through 6 weeks of the season, my CFB record sits at 43-31-1, +19.86u.
*CFB(1u): App State/Louisiana UNDER 57.5–6:30 PM CT
Louisiana returned the most production in CFB entering this season, but they have been somewhat disappointing to start the year. They were non-competitive to open up the season against Texas(a game many pegged them to win), and while they have won their last 4 games, 3 have come by just one possession. The combined record of their last 4 opponents is just 8-14, making those close wins a little more concerning. App State is also 4-1, with their only loss coming by 2 points against Miami. The Mountaineers have also picked up quality wins against East Carolina(won by 14) and Marshall. I really like the Under in this matchup. Louisiana likes to go at a controlled pace and, given they are the home team, they should have an opportunity to dictate the pace of this game. This is the toughest defense App State has faced up to this point in the season, and QB Chase Brice has his history of turnover issues. 57.5 is far too high considering the Sun Belt implications this game has; I’d expect both defenses to take the forefront. Anything 56 or higher on the total seems like an obvious Under play to me.
Podcast 69 – 21 – NFL Week 5 and College Football Week 6 Recap – Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 6 – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back for some fantasy football while Kiev O’Neil does what he does! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 6 and NFL week 5 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 7 and NFL Week 6. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 7! Then, Dave comes on and the guys talk some Fantasy Football. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev and Dave gives out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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