Hopefully everyone had a great Labor Day weekend! We sure did by starting the College Football season 6-0 and our overall record of late is 21-9 (70%) in our last 30 plays!! However, we’re not going to forget about baseball!! I am giving out my lone MLB play for free below. Get on board and get the rest of our picks for this week at the SPORTS PICK HUB!!
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The Tampa Bays Rays continue their 3-game set at Fenway Park against division rival Boston Red Sox. Rookie right-hander Drew Rasmussen will take the ball for the AL leading Rays. He is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 73 innings pitched this season. Since the break, Ramussen has posted a 0.99 WHIP, a low .247, and 3.71 xFIP. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez will head to the mound for the BoSox. He is 11-7 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 132.2 innings this year. Rodriguez has pitched to a 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 4.09 xFIP while he has also posted similar numbers in the second half of the year (3.77 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.14 xFIP). Two of the best offenses will meet in this one as the Rays and Red Sox rank 1st and 2nd in the majors in runs scored, wOBA, and wRC+ in the past 30 days. Tampa Bay has been great away from the Trop this season while scoring the most runs (391) in the league on the road. On the other side, Boston has ranked in the top 5 of the league in hits (437), runs scored (277), batting average (.277), OPS (.835), ISO (.208), wOBA (.355) and wRC+ (118) versus right-handed pitching at home this season. It is also worth noting that the Rays score the most runs in the majors in the last 3 innings (1.82) and are even better on the road (2.63). I bring that up because Tampa will most likely be matching up against a Boston bullpen in the later innings that has been posting a 1.61 WHIP, 5.57 ERA and 4.59 xFIP in the past 30 days. I definitely would lean towards the Rays side but my numbers have the total with more value. Take Over 9.5 runs
Tuesday card has a Top Level Soccer Total and a big 5* MLB Diamond Cutter System headlining the MLB Card. MLB Early Comp Play below
The MLB Comp Play is on Cleveland at 6:10 eastern. Cleveland applies to a solid 121-45 system tonight a and they have won 5 of 6 vs losing teams and 7 of 9 off a loss. Minnesota has dropped 21 of 16 on Tuesdays, 15 of 21 off a win and 7 of 9 after allowing 2 or less runs Civale for Cleveland has a stellar 3.32 era and has won 6 of 7. The Twins have Gant going and he has dropped his last 3 allowing 10 runs in his last 12 innings. Look for Cleveland to get this one. On Tuesday we have a big 5* MLB Diamond cutter system going along with a Top Level Soccer total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on and cash out tonight. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Cleveland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Many of you followed my 2021 NBA season, where I went 207-152 (58%) and hopefully cemented myself as a legit NBA handicapper. I’ve been saying it for a long time and I’ll say it here again– as proud as I am of my NBA record, I think I’m even sharper in the NFL. I’m eager and beyond excited to start officially sharing my NFL plays here at TheOddsBreakers, starting this week and for the rest of the season. Please don’t forget to check out my weekly NFL podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, where me and my fellow handicapper and friend discuss every single NFL game every Thursday throughout the NFL season. I’ll also put out my official Circa-Million five ATS picks every Saturday. With that, and with a lot to look forward to, here and my best Week 1 plays:
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Bucs -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The closer we get to this game, the more evident it seems that the Cowboys will really struggle in this contest. By no merit of their own, the Dallas Cowboys and their huge market influence earned them the opening, spotlight TNF game against the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Tom Brady marches his squad into Raymond James Stadium and there are no indications that they’ll be regressing in any regard. In fact, somewhat unsurprisingly at this point, Tampa Bay managed to keep every one of their Super Bowl starters from last year. Mike Evans is even giving away money to ensure they have enough to keep everyone happy. Suddenly the entire Tampa Bay franchise is acting unselfish, collective, and mature– something that’s clearly a part of the all-encompassing Tom-Brady-effect. Through his leadership (not Bruce Arians, although kudos to Bruce for not getting in the way), the Bucs are primed with a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball. They’ll have a particularly strong advantage when they’re on offense against a very shallow Dallas defense.
The Cowboys have a few big things working against them coming into this showdown–
1) There’s already a major loss at offensive lineman with RG Zack Martin out with COVID. Dallas’ offensive line has been their stalwart unit for years and now, after a year where they were forced to mix and match their big boys in 2020, the unit will experience even more inconsistency Thursday night. In case you’re unaware, the Bucs defensive line is loaded and healthy and now they might be an even bigger problem for the Cowboys.
2) Dak’s health is a concern. Dak reported in Hard Knocks and other media appearances that he is 100% ready to go Thursday. I’m inclined to believe Dak, but he still hasn’t played at ALL during the preseason and coming back from ankle/shoulder injuries can’t be easy, let alone the natural rust of not having played football in a long time. Any downgrade to Dak’s performance will spell bad results for his team. We saw how that played out last year.
3) Their defense is STILL a problem: Rookie LB Micah Parson has a ton of upside but it’s clear he’s still in a maturation process. Vander Esch is good, and DeMarcus Lawrence is still a dangerous edge rusher, but who else do they have? This is an very flawed and very shallow roster that should be readily exposed by the greatest quarterback of all time in front of his home crowd.
My sincerest apologies to Cowboys fans but I think this one’s a blowout. The Bucs make one hell of a teaser leg, too.
Cardinals/Titans over 52 (-110), 1.5 units: Remember when Kyler Murray was on track to be the only QB ever to eclipse 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a season last year? That was objectively the case, and we all witnessed the brilliant passing and running ability of the now 3rd year QB. Though clearly undersized, Kyler’s legs seem to move at an impossibly quick pace when he takes off outside the pocket; it reminds me of Christian McCaffrey, actually, which is saying something. Unfortunately, the 4,000/1,000 season never happened. Murray incurred a shoulder injury in Week 11 and never looked the same. The defenses of the NFC West probably had something to do with his late-season limitations, but this year Kyler is healthy and ready to return to form. Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and the Arizona offense go up against a Tennessee defense that was 29th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed last year.
The Titans are aware of their shortcomings on defense and they took steps to make it better. Bud Dupree and Denico Autry were signed to bring more talent on the edge. Tennessee’s first round draft pick was Caleb Farley, the acclaimed cornerback from Virginia Tech. They also added Janoris “Jackrabbit” Jenkins and Kevin Johnson for more depth in the secondary. Shane Bowen was officially promoted to defensive coordinator and looks to take on Tennessee’s many defensive issues. Last year the Titans’ defense could not get off the field on 3rd downs, placing immense pressure on the offense to keep them in games. Now they’re boasting about their defensive effort in the preseason against 2nd and 3rd string units and I just can’t buy into it yet. I see Kyler and a healthy Cardinals’ offense winning most battles Sunday; the Titans’ new-look defense needs more experience together.
And then there’s Tennessee’s offense, which has only gotten better. In fact, you could make a case that the Titans have the best RB and WR combo in the NFL. Julio Jones joins Derrick Henry and AJ Brown to give Ryan Tannehill and the Titans’ offense even more deadly weapons. The Cardinals added some pieces to their defense, including JJ Watt and Malcolm Butler, but this is a huge test on the road against a Titans offense that simply could not be stopped last season. Until proven otherwise, I don’t trust either of these defenses, while there’s a lot to love about both offenses– I’ll take the over.
Giants/Broncos under 42 (-110), 1.5 units: Take it from me– the Giants don’t score a lot of points. I know what you’re thinking, “Chris, you’re just being rough on NYG because they’re your team. They’ll be better this year, you just watch. Golladay, Saquon, let’s go!” I appreciate the votes of confidence in my G-Men but, like a lot of these preseason narratives, I’ll believe it when I see it. The Giants were second only to the lowly Jets in scoring the least amount of points per game last year, averaging a pathetic 17.5. In 2019 they only scored 14 ppg, which is actually shocking, but at least they’re improving. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett adds more of the same to what’s been the Giants’ problem for a very long time: conservative play-calling, predictable 1st and 2nd down runs, and a particularly weak offensive line. Poor Saquon, that’s all I can say.
But for all their woes on offense, the Giants’ defense is something to get excited about. Last year they vastly improved in a ton of categories. The finished 12th in yards allowed, 11th in run yards allowed, and 9th in points allowed in 2020. That’s all pretty impressive considering they were playing behind in most of those games. Their defense was put in vulnerable spots time and time again but they rarely broke, and I think they can have a lot of success against Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos offense. Denver has plenty of talent on offense, that’s for sure, but their limited because of their quarterback play. The Giants have a top 10 secondary, they invested more in their defensive line in free agency and in the draft, and this could be a breakout year for edge rusher Leonard Williams, who ascended quickly last year among New York’s front-seven.
The Broncos will look a LOT healthier on defense this year, too. Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller and new big-name draftee Patrick Surtain II (9th overall, Alabama) will join a loaded Denver defense that should give NYG’s shallow offensive line and predictable offense a ton of problems. This is a deservedly low total and it’s not scaring me away– I’m on the under.
Bears/Rams under 45 (-110), 2 units: The new look Rams will feature long-time Lions QB Matthew Stafford as they host the Bears in the opening Sunday Night game. I’m excited as anyone to watch Sean McVay concoct creative plays to bring out the best in Stafford, and I also think the Rams deserve their Super Bowl hype. McVay finally has an exceptional arm talent under center, one that can stretch the field and feed Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and TE Tyler Higbee, who looked fantastic last year serving in a more prominent role in McVay’s offense. The Rams had one of the best defenses in football last year, limiting teams to a league low 292.9 yards per game and only 19.3 ppg, which was second only to Baltimore. They’ll miss defensive coordinator Brandon Staley as he takes on his new role as head coach for the other LA club, but I don’t see this defense regressing all that much. They just have too much veteran talent. Sometimes I wonder if Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey could take on 2 players each on every play but I digress.
The Bears offense has been pedestrian for quite some time and now they’ll welcome Andy Dalton to… to what? Save the day? That’s not going to happen. I like that they’re keeping rookie QB Justin Fields on the sideline for now– and there’s certainly no use in rolling out a 1st year player against LAR’s defense; that would only challenge the kid’s confidence– but it’s really hard imagining Andy Dalton and a mediocre (at best) Bears offense having much success Sunday night against LAR. David Montgomery can be a solid running back but Allen Robinson II is really Chicago’s only significant weapon. Put simply, I expect the Rams defense to severely limit their output. The Bears will be lucky to score 20 points.
And the Rams offense may not be firing on all cylinders yet either. Stafford and other key starters didn’t take a single snap in the preseason, so it’s reasonable to assume there might be some rust. The Bears defense almost always starts off the first half of the season strong– it’s what led them to a 5-1 record last year– and then they fade off as the season wanes on and as their offense perpetually lets them down. For Bears fans I hope that’s when we see Justin Fields in the future but this isn’t that spot. This game will showcase two of the best front-sevens in all the NFL and I think that’ll be the difference. I love the Rams to win but 7 points is a big line for a week 1 game– I’ll just snag the under.
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We have a great show for you today! 8-5 ATS/OU for Week 1B so far! Kiev O’Neill goes solo to recap a huge 1st weekend of college football. First, Kiev talks about some of the biggest football games of the weekend. Next, he get’s into some college football misleading final scores. Then, he goes right into some motivational spots for week 2. Finally, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for College football week 2! If you are a handicapper and are looking build upon your base and bottom line, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com!
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We had a winning weekend in college football and we grind on to Monday, where we have a marquee matchup between two big offenses. Here’s my pick:
Louisville +9.5 (-105), 1 unit and Full Game Over 74 (-115), 1.5 units: Lane Kiffin’s inaugural year as the Ole Miss football coach was better than many expected, with the program finishing 5-5 in a COVID season. Many experts have Ole Miss as the 4th best team in the SEC, a strong rating considering the fact that they were a dismal 4-8 just two years ago. Lane Kiffin tested positive for COVID and will be held off-site for this contest. I’m not sure how much of a difference that’ll make; I’m sure his coaches are well prepped, but it’s surely something to consider. Behind quarterback Matt Corral, who was the main catalyst behind a n incredible 562.4 yards per game last for the Rebels (an SEC record, by the way), the Ole Miss offense should be just as explosive as ever in 2021.
Louisville returns senior quarterback Malik Cunningham, whose speed and athleticism are almost always an issue for opposing defenses. Cunningham threw for 2,617 yards last year and ran for another 609 yards for a combined 27 touchdowns. Sophomore tight end Marshon Ford, who had 309 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in his freshman year, looks to continue making waves on a loaded Cardinals offense. The Louisville defense overperformed last year and they’ll be without half of its starters from a season ago. While they probably won’t be as talented, there’s no sure-fire evidence to suggest that their defensive capability will just fall off a cliff this year. That’s the kind of predictive analysis that’s entirely bogus (and you’ll hear/read it from other “experts”); we simply don’t know what they’ll look like on defense this season. On offense, they should be just as capable (if not more capable behind more experienced skill players).
This feels like an offensive takeover. Two teams eager to prove their prowess on that side of the ball, with electric and nearly unstoppable athletes on both sides, gives me confidence that any early-game nerves will quickly subside and turn into points, and often. I’ll put 1.5 units on the over and another unit on Louisville keeping it close– Cunningham vs. Corral is a matchup I can’t wait to watch!
I could lose all respect for saying this, but I’m looking at an UNDER play in the Louisville/ Ole Miss game in Atlanta Monday night. Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin is out with COVID and Louisville’s Scott Satterfield in just out in the doghouse after getting caught nibbling on the vacant South Carolina job last offseason.
Ole Miss will be one of the highest scoring teams after they were 7th in the nation in passing and 3rd in offense overall last season. That doesn’t help my case for the UNDER, but Athlon Sports put out a stat I can’t stop thinking about. Last year, Ole Miss tied Buffalo for most 2H points in the nation averaging 21 pts/ game after halftime. That tells me Kiffin is one of the best at adjustments but remember, he won’t be there.
Louisville also has the ability to score and the Rebels Defense doesn’t help my under here as they were 126th in total defense last year. The Cardinals’ O-line has some nice size so LOU should be able to move some men and put up some points as well. I expect LOU to come out conservative at first to build some confidence in their QB Malik Cunningham off of a season where he had more turnovers than expected.
Looking at Louisville’s defense, they were 1st in the ACC for pass defense and actually the 39th total defense in the country. Their D-Coordinator Bryan Brown got a raise for their improvement and is now assistant head coach, likely in the running for head coach if Satterfield blows it this year. Tough task in game 1 to try and slow Ole Miss, especially with 3 new starters in the secondary.
The full game total is up to 75-76 after opening 74 1/2, with only 56% of the money on the OVER. I’m not the only one that is looking at the UNDER. When I’m looking for the UNDER, I don’t mind waiting until gameday. The neutral setting helps the under as there shouldn’t be an overwhelming crowd advantage, one way or the other. Full game, this one wouldn’t shock me if it flies OVER. I’m not as down on Satterfield as most this year, so I’m looking for the Cardinals to slow it down and keep it tight in the beginning. The 1H total UNDER the high number of 38 is worth the sweat for me. Could get out of hand so keeping this play small.
*3 Star Free Play on Jays/Yankees over 9.5* The Blue Jays offense has gotten red hot in the last few games. They swept the A’s at home and put up some big numbers. Jameson Taillon has been up and down this year, and he comes into this one struggling. Toronto should get plenty of scoring chances.
The Yankees offense has been far better this year against left handed pitching, and Ryu has been only mediocre of late. This is an opportunity for the Yankees to take advantage of a solid matchup on a warm day at Yankee Stadium.
Notre Dame snuck their way into the playoff last season with a veteran-laden team, but many of those guys have moved on. That being said, I feel more confident than most that Notre Dame will replenish their two-deep and be relevant again this season. While QB Ian Book won’t be easy to replace, Jack Coan garnered a ton of experience as the starting guy at Wisconsin and led the Badgers to a Rose Bowl win in 2019. Coan is an efficient passer and, like Book, isn’t going to be asked to play out of his element. The Irish return bellcow RB Kyren Williams(1,125 rush yards, 13 TD’s in 2020) this season; while the OL returns just 1 starter, Notre Dame has good enough options there to where I think they won’t have many issues tonight. Tommy Rees is only going to improve as a play caller, and he’ll get the benefit of matching up with one of the most undisciplined defensives in the country from a year ago. While Florida State added 5 transfers on the defensive side of the ball over the offseason, I’m going to have to see significant improvement before I’m willing to trust them. Whether Florida State trots out Jordan Travis or Mackenzie Milton at QB, they’re going to be in for a tough matchup. The Irish defense was among the best in the country a year ago, and with new DC Marcus Freeman(formerly of Cincinnati) taking over the reins, I’d expect that to continue. I trust Notre Dame’s run defense more than I trust their pass defense, but the lack of continuity for the Seminoles at WR leads me to believe they won’t be able to exploit that (supposed) weakness. Mike Norvell still has a long way to go to get Florida State back in the forefront of the CFB landscape; I’ll ride steady with the Irish tonight.
We started the year with a winner and have 5 total plays today! I am giving out one of them below! Get on board and get the rest of our picks for the weekend at the SPORTS PICK HUB!!
Our overall record of late is 16-8 (67%) in our last 23 plays and 16-6 (73%) in our last 22 underdog plays!!
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The 18th ranked Indiana Hoosiers kick off the 2021 campaign against #17 Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. After back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since the 1990s, Indiana is looking to make another leap forward in 2021. Iowa will be rock-solid at home in the opener and this is going to be one of the closest matchups this weekend, and will shake up the conference immediately.
Indiana’s 2020 season wasn’t a fluke, but it got away with not having much of a ground attack. That’s about to be a big issue with Penix not being quite able to carry the O as it stalls way too often. Indiana’s pass offense was decent but overall they averaged 359.5 yards per game which ranked them 94th in the nation. Iowa comes in with an offense only returning 6 starters but do have their quarterback, Spencer Petras and running back, Tyler Goodson returning from an offense that averaged 368.6 yards per game which is very similar production as the Hoosiers and 87th in the nation.
The strength of both teams is defenately their defenses. Iowa is an old-fashioned team that relies on running the football and playing good defense. That doesn’t change this year. Indiana had more success last season in the passing game while the strength of the team was definitely on defense where they return 9 starters. Indiana linebacker Micah McFadden comes back after being named a third-team AP all-American in ’20. He lines up in front of one of the conference’s top secondaries led by outstanding cornerbacks Tiawan Mullen and Jaylin Williams, who helped produce 17 picks a year ago. “They play different zones but they’ll play man as well,” Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras said. “The bottom line is they’re a really talented secondary. They have a lot of experience.” If Indiana receives strong play up front, it could be one of the top defenses in the Big Ten. It has that in common with the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played 22 straight games without surrendering 25 points, the longest streak in the nation among Power 5 teams. In the past 7 games as a home favorite, the under has cashed 5 times. Additionally, the Hawkeyes ranked No. 1 in the nation in 2020 in defensive yards per play (4.3), ranked No. 2 in the conference in total defense (313.8) and scoring defense (16.0), No. 3 in rush defense (107.6) and No. 5 in pass defense (206.1). and will have 7 defenders returning on that side of the ball.
This should be a typical “grind it out” Big Ten football game. I expect the total to land closer to 40. Take Under 46
This is one of the busiest and most exciting times of the year as the baseball season is wrapping up, football is just beginning and basketball/hockey are just around the corner! What a time to be alive! Here are my favorite plays for CFB Week 1!
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Kentucky -31 (-110), 1.5 units: The Kentucky Wildcats program has a lot of hype within their organization this year, with front office and players hopeful they can turn this into a 9+ win season. UL Monroe has a brand new coaching staff and this is a really tough spot at Lexington. Kentucky’s defense should be just as solid as they were in 2020 and the Wildcats’ offense should benefit from good field position behind their capable offensive stars. I’m on Kentucky in a blowout.
Penn State/Wisconsin under 49.5 (-110), 1.5 units: A raucous crowd at Camp Randall Stadium should create a fantastic Big Ten atmosphere as these two titans clash in Week 1. Penn State is struggling with continuity on offense and looks to bring new talent to their defense, while Wisconsin had one of the best defenses in college football last year. The Badgers ranked 4th in the country in yards per game, allowing just under 300 per contest. Penn State has enjoyed playing with pace, they averaged 81.9 plays per game last year (3rd overall in the nation), but that’s often led to turnovers and mistakes. I see a game with two teams struggling to score in a hard-nosed battle in the trenches. The under is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 road games and 4-0 in the Badgers last 4 conference games. I’m on the under in this intra-conference battle.
West Virginia -3 (-110), 2 units: We’ve seen this story before. Apologies to my many friends who are Maryland alum, but I don’t think home-field advantage or a new season of hope will make a difference today. The state of Maryland isn’t as friendly to big gatherings with no masks (trust me, I live here… and I understand it, too) so I doubt Maryland Stadium will be packed this afternoon. West Virginia has more talent on both sides of the ball and should be able to control this game with a very able run game. Maryland has some talent but not nearly as much as they have in past years. The Terrapins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog and the Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. I’ll take West Virginia– one of my favorite plays today.
Marshall 2.5 (-105), 1 unit: Bet the number not the team! Since we’re still under 3 here, I have to side with Marshall. Navy needs more consistency at quarterback and Marshall is solid on both sides of the ball. I wish this wasn’t at Annapolis but I don’t think it’ll matter. This is only a 1 unit bet since nearly all the trends– in full transparency– favor Navy, but I care not. This is a different, weaker Navy unit and a Marshall team ready to win.
Georgia/Clemson under 51.5 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s a lot of new blood out there for Clemson’s offense and even though Georgia has a few new starters on defense, I think they’ll win that battle more than people are anticipating. The Georgia offense is slow and methodical and nothing a solid Clemson front 7 and secondary should struggle with too often. A huge spotlight game with a lot of eager young talent spells nerves and equals defense more often than not. I’ll take the under.
Nevada wins (+150), 1.5 units: Another road team for Chris? I know I know, but yes indeed– I think the wrong team is favored here. I believe in Chase Strong and the Nevada offense and I don’t think California can keep up. Nevada’s defense isn’t anything to shrug off either, right there with California in the top 40 overall last year according to various categories. Give me Nevada in a late-night “upset.”
