Thursday card has our NFL Opening Night Triple System Play headlining along with MLB and World Cup Qualifier Soccer. MLB Comp Play below
The MLB Comp play is on Atlanta on the run line at -1.5 at 7:20 eastern. The Braves fit one of our September Specific Power Systems here tonight and have a nice pitching edge with Ynoa who has allowed 1 run in his 2 appearances vs Washington this year and also has a 3.17 Era. The Nationals counter with Fedde who is 0-3 vs Atlanta this season and has an elevated 5+ Era. Washington has dropped 8 of 9 in game 3 of a series and 20 of 26 on Thursdays, as well as 22 of 30 vs winning teams. Atlanta has won 22 of 28 when favored and 18 of 24 vs a team under .500. Look for Atlanta to win this one. Opening night Thursday Triple System NFL Headlines along with World Cup Soccer Qualifiers and MLB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on and cash out as we stay hit. For the LV Comp Play. Go with the Braves on the run line. Rob V – Golden Contender Sports
Tonight we have a lower total of 8 as PHI looks to win their series in MIL and keep their playoff hopes alive. The total opened juiced to the UN (-115) but now 8 is juiced to the OV (-118) with 61% of the $ still on the UN (moved from 64% at start of me writing this). That tells me some respected OV money is coming in, but not enough to have oddsmakers move the line. A case could be made for the UN as pitchers Kyle Gibson and Freddy Peralta are both capable of shutting lineups down.
Looking at the pitchers’ recent outings… Gibson got lit up for 8 ER’s in his last appearance against MIA. Peralta got 2 ER’s in 2 innings of work in his L2 showings against the Cardinals. There’s a few other stats and trends that have me looking at the over. PHI has only gone UN four times in their L15 games. MIL has only gone UN three of their L8. Since the all-star break, MIL has the highest BA v. RHP in the league. PHI is 4th in MLB in runs v RHP in that time frame.
Philly has been hot lately winning seven of their L10 to stay alive in the wild card. I don’t expect they’ll be an easy out tonight. Although the PHI bullpen has been better of late, we all know what they’re capable of. Add to that, we also have wind blowing out to CF tonight at American Family Field. I think there’s a case to be made for the over 8 tonight, could move to 8 1/2 before first pitch!
PHI/ MIL OV 8 (-118) – 1.18u
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UCF outgained Boise State 573 yards to 283 yet only won by 5 points. A 2-1 turnover ratio helped that but Boise was lucky and lost this whole game.
USF gained 271 yards but scored 0 points vs NC State. 3-1 turnover ratio and bad red zone efficiency.
Tulsa out-gained FCS UC Davis 448 – 399 yet lost by 2. A 3-1 turnover ratio did them in.
North Carolina Outgained Virginia Tech 354 – 296 yet lost 17-10, a 3-2 turnover ratio did them in.
Fresno State outgained Oregon 373 – 358 yet lost 31-24. A 3-1 turnover ratio hurt.
Wisconsin out-gained Penn State 359 yards to 257 yet lost 16-10. 3-0 Turnover ratio and poor red zone killed us.
USC only outgained San Jose State 416 to 375 yet won 30-7. 3-2 turnover ratio including a pick 6 hurt Lil Sparty.
Duke outgained Charlotte 580 to 478 yet lost 31-28. 2-0 turnover ratio killed them.
Central Michigan outgained Missouri 475 to 468 but lost 34-24. A 2-0 turnover ratio did it but some of this was garbage yards.
Georgia Tech out-gained NIU 429 to 301 yet lost 22-21. Even turnovers bad efficiency.
Washington out-gained FCS Montana 291 to 232 yet lost 13-7, 3-0 turnover ration.
I have to think that the only reason Vanderbilt is still in the SEC is because they make them look smart. They outgained FCS East Tennessee State and lost 23-3. 2-0 turnover ratio.
Arizona out-gained BYU 426 to 368 yards yet lost 24-16. 1-0 turnover ratio hurt.
New Mexico State outgained San Diego State 374 to 363 and lost 28-10. They had equal turnovers.
*MLB(1u): Reds TT OVER 4.5(-120) @ Cubs–6:40 PM CT
I rolled with the Reds TT OVER 5.5 last night only to be disappointed as they only scored 4 runs. With the TT coming down a full run for tonight’s game, I’m jumping right back on it for the same reasons I did yesterday. First off, the Reds have handled right-handed pitching as good as any team in baseball throughout this season, and they display multiple power threats. Cubs SP Alec Mills has a rough 1.41 WHIP this season and has allowed 10.5 H/9; almost every relevant bullpen arm the Cubs had was shipped away at the deadline, leading to a steep decline in the Cubs’ bullpen numbers since August 1st. Being the road team, the Reds are guaranteed 27 outs to work with in this game. Considering how unreliable Cincinnati’s pitching staff is, there’s a good chance both teams are able to score some runs. However, I feel much safer betting on the Reds offense to reach the 5-run mark tonight against a below-average Cubs pitching staff.
We’re 36-18 (66.6%) the last month in free MLB Picks– let’s get another!
Blue Jays (+110), 1.5 units: Toronto is surging. The Jays blasted the Yankees in the first two games of this series by scores of 8-0 and 5-1, and they have now won 6 straight games. Meanwhile, the home-team Yankees are in a slump; they’ve lost 4 games in a row, including two ugly losses against Baltimore in the Bronx. The final month of the regular season isn’t a good time to struggle but things are starting to unravel for NYY. Joey Gallo and Gleyber Torres were dropped from the Yankees lineup yesterday after going an ice cold 0-7 Monday night. The Yankees have only mustered 1 run in their last 2 games and over the last week, they’re the worst offense in baseball. They’re dead last in slugging % and batting average, and they’re 29th in wOBA and OBP. Eventually that will regress to the mean but I don’t think this is the spot. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are top 2 in all of those same offensive categories. They’re also top 10 in team-ERA and they’ve had the most consistently productive offense in MLB all year.
Alek Manoah (3.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 79.1 innings) will assume starter responsibilities for Toronto. Alek is good for getting blown up at least once a month, the latest being a 6 run allowance against the Athletics, but I expect better results for the rest of September. The big-bodied Manoah has a commanding frame and still boasts a 3.63 xERA; he’s also been great at limiting big slugs, which is a must against a homerun-dependent Yankees unit. His only start against the Yankees was a 2 hit, 0 run allowance in the Bronx, something we hope he can duplicate this afternoon. Luis Gil (RHP, 0.00 ERA, 1.02 WHIP over 15.2 innings) has looked sensational in 3 starts for the Yankees. The 23 year old will face a massive test today against a white-hot Toronto lineup, which could result in either another dynamic showing or disastrous results for New York.
I’m betting on the latter. We’re getting a Blue Jays team with a ton of momentum and a lot of motivation as they seek to close the gap in the AL West. Give me Toronto to take a 3-game series lead on the Yankees.
As the MLB season grinds on, this is the time of year when I typically do the best. Although there’s a few games of value for me on the board, this game features one of my biggest bets of the night. Looking at the two young starters in this game, KC has the advantage with Jackson Kowar. He’s done well in his L2 starts against CLE and BOS at home. Granted, he has done worse on the road.
Alexander Wells, BAL’s starter, has not looked good at all in his last 5 outings. To his credit, those were against DET twice/ NYY/ TB/ HOU. He averaged a 10.17 ERA across those games. A stat that caught my eye in this one is that we know BAL is good against LHP but I didn’t realize KC was right behind them ranking 8th in BA v LHP.
What’s misleading is on the surface Kowar has a 9.82 ERA on the season and Wells is at 7.71. I realize I’m not blowing any minds here going against the Orioles but to me, the value is in the F5 RL -1/2 (+113). I also took a small piece of KC TT OV 5.5 (+107).
*MLB(1u): Reds TT OVER 5.5(+100) @ Cubs–6:40 PM CT
The Reds absolutely mash righties, plain and simple. Since August 1st, Cincy is hitting .260 with 43 HR’s against right-handed pitching. The Cubs will send Adrian Sampson to the hill to make just his 2nd career start; while he’s had some success out of the bullpen this season, he allowed 4 runs in 1 inning in a similar quality of matchup against the White Sox. Behind Sampson, the Cubs bullpen has become unreliable after shipping off virtually every relevant piece they had prior to the deadline. As a bonus, the wind will be blowing out to RF at Wrigley Field tonight, giving the likes of Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, and Tyler Naquin an advantage. With a guaranteed 27 outs to work with, I think the Reds will light up the scoreboard tonight.
Considering what the 2021 Mets have displayed, it seems absolutely foolish to list them as this heavy of favorites. While the Marlins have a worse record, these teams’ run differentials are separated by only 20 runs. In other words, it’s wrong to assume the Mets are far-and-away the better the team. Miami will send highly touted prospect Edward Cabrera tonight to make just his 3rd career start. He actually matched up with the Mets last week; while he was tagged for 3 runs in 4 IP, Cabrera possesses a plus fastball and has what it takes to shut down a wretched Mets lineup. It also helps that the Marlins have a top 5-7 bullpen in baseball and enter tonight’s game fresh. Mets SP Carlos Carrasco is experienced from his time with the Indians, but he has simply underperformed as a Met this season. He’s allowing an alarming 2.2 HR/9, and while his FIP indicates he’s bound for a turnaround, he won’t have an easy time facing a Marlins lineup that saw him just last week. The Mets bullpen is shaky and isn’t earning any of my trust. I think the Mets should be around a -135 favorite, so we’re getting quite a bit of value on a Marlins team that is often overlooked.
The start of the NFL season is now less than 60 hours away. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures there.
I have gone through the entire schedule, game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ve highlighted my top 5 plays along the way and given you my picks division by division. Now I’m gonna tell you who the best values are on Division and Conference champs as well as the Super Bowl, and a couple long shots that might be worth a play. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
So after completing all game comparisons for the entire season I turned my attention to the playoffs and who I think could make some noise. Here’s a breakdown of the seeding by conference based on my projections
NFC – 1. Los Angeles Rams 2. Green Bay 3. Tampa Bay 4. Washington 5. San Francisco 6. Seattle 7. Arizona
AFC 1. Buffalo 2. Kansas City 3. Tennessee 4. Cleveland 5. Miami 6. Los Angeles Chargers 7. Baltimore
Wild Card Round Scores – Kansas City 28 Baltimore 17, Tennessee 37, LA Chargers 34, Cleveland 27 Miami 21, Green Bay 38 Arizona 31, Tampa Bay 27 Seattle 20, Washington 24 San Francisco 21
Divisional Round Buffalo 31 Tennessee 28, Cleveland 34 Kansas City 31, LA Rams 20 Washington 17, Green Bay 31 Tampa Bay 27,
Conference Championships Buffalo 37 Cleveland 31, LA Rams 24 Green Bay 20
Super Bowl – LA Rams 30 Buffalo 27
Did I go chalk with both #1 seeds advancing to the Super Bowl. Sure did! These are my projections after all. Now lets see where there is still some value to bet on in the futures
Division Winner Free Plays – I already gave this one out, but Tennessee, now around -140 at most books is a great play here. Jacksonville and Houston will not challenge so it comes down to Indy. If you think the Carson Wentz and Frank Reich reunion leads them to win the division go ahead an pass, but I still think -140 is good value here. Green Bay -175 is my other play. Detroit won’t be there. Chicago and Justin Fields might improve, but I don’t see that offense being ready to win the division. You wanna take Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers? Juice is at -175, but I still see Aaron having something to prove on his way out the door so I’ll gladly lay it. Favorite plus money bet is Washington +170. The defense is fierce. They have weapons on offense, and Fitzmagic can play. He was worth 3 extra wins to the Dolphins last year, I dont see why he can’t do the same for Washington, and Dallas is gonna lose some shootouts this year.
Conference Winner Plays – Once getting to this point it’s best to use some type of Dutching Tool to make sure you’ve got correct units being bet aligned with the odds. In the NFC I have bets in on the Packers +550 and the Rams +750. In the AFC I’ve got Buffalo +525 and Tennessee +1200. If you want to play some bigger longshots. I could see throwing some $ down on PIttsburgh, LA Chargers or Washington
Super Bowl Plays – On the Rams +1400 and Bills +1000 here along with Tennessee at +2500.
These plays are all about value on the board and I think I’ve got best chance with these teams to cash some big tickets. The Tom Brady and Andy Reid era is over in 2021. Bring on some fresh faces at the Super Bowl this year. It will be the second straight year a team wins The Super Bowl in their own arena.
