This could be the last time we see old Clay Guida who has had a wonderful UFC career. At 42 years old, I do not think that there is much left in the tank and the line definitely shows it. What I will say is that Clay does not get knocked out. As a matter of fact, out of his 24 losses, he has only been fished by KO/TKO/DQ twice. What Clay does is fall victim to submission or decision with 11 losses by sub and 10 by points. Chase Hooper is a young buck who can fight either standing or on the ground. He is only 25 years old and at 14-3, he has 4 KOs, 7 submissions and 3 decisions. Now the obvious thing is Hooper by decision, but I am just not so sure of that. The price of this prop is massively juiced at -175. If Clay’s corner has any Brains, they will have him try to keep his distance. As much as Clay get’s choked out, he at last has a 67% take down defense and he isn’t a complete slouch on the ground himself with 14 wins by his own submissions. I think that the value has switched to Clay in his last fight going the three round vs Chase Hooper. I think Chase could win by points and the price is very nice.
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Man do I want ASU to win this game, but there are two problems that I have with them. The First issue is that ASU lost their best wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson to a collar bone fracture. He has over double the catches than the next guy. The next problem is that Arizona State tends to choke some of their leads away like we have seen vs Mississippi State, Kansas, Kansas State, UCF and BYU. When will that crush them? Other than that, from a matchup perspective, the Devils should be able to run all over the Clones as Iowa State’s defense only ranks 68th in opponent rushing success rate and 85th in opponent rush EPA. Iowa State gives up 5.02 rushing yards per attempt. This needs to be a Scattlebo game for ASU to win.
Lean ASU -2
Ohio vs Miami Oh -3 O/U 44.5
I am glad that these two teams are facing off as they are the best in the MAC. Neither of them did well in the non-conference, and earlier in the year they both faced off with the Bobcats losing to the Redhawks 30-20. I think that Ohio has much improved since that loss. Parker Navarro has figured it out as the Bobcats rank 53rd in passing success rate compared to Brett Gabbert who ranks 40th. The Redhawks can not run the ball ranking ranking 124th in rushing success rate and 88th in rushing EPA. The Bobcats run the ball well ranking 30th in rush EPA. The running game is where I think that Ohio has a shot ranking 19th in yards per rush to Miami ranking 73rd in opponent rush EPA. The problem for the Bobcats would be if this game becomes a shootout, but being that they have played already, I give Ohio the advantage. Miami has a slight yards per play advantage at 1.57 to 1.23, but I think that the Ohio offense is more balanced ranking 15th in 3rd down conversions to Miami ranking 122nd. I think Ohio breaks through the tough Redhawk defense and has a shot to win this game.
Ohio +3 -120
Georgia vs Texas -2.5 O/U 49.5
Well, being that the CFB committee said that recent results is playing a factor this year, let’s do that for this handicap. Over the past four games, Georgia lost by 18 points to Ole Miss, they beat Tennessee, they allowed over 20 points to one of the worst teams in college football in UMASS, and they got some big ref help to beat Georgia Tech at home after eight overtimes. Georgia is one of the worst ATS teams in college football at 3-9. Texas just happened to win all four of their SEC games by double digits. They are a healthy 7-5 ATS this season. Ok, enough with that. We all know that Georgia beat Texas in Texas already. This game is being played in Mercedes Benz Stadium in Georgia. I’ll give Georgia 2 points for home field. In saying that, I still have Texas a four point favorite here factoring in all of Georgia’s injuries. The Longhorns have a massive 1.18 net yards per play advantage over Georgia. They also have a much better defense this year ranking 2nd in defensive EPA to Georgia ranking 36th. I think that the fact that Texas already saw what Georgia definitely gives them an advantage here. I like the Longhorns to win the game, and I like them the first half as Georgia has been slow to start most of the time this season.
Texas ML Full game-134 – 2 stars
Marshall vs Louisiana -6 O/U 56.5
This game will be played at Cajun Field in Louisiana. It’s a home game for the Cajuns. What bugs me about this game is that even though I have the Cajuns power rated a few points better than the Herd, the metrics really like Marshall here. Since Louisiana lost quarterback Ben Wooldridge to a broken collarbone, Chandler Fields stepped in and has been great, yet he played the bottom feeders of the Sun belt in Troy and ULM Monroe. Marshall should be able to run the ball ranking 39th in rush EPA to Louisiana who ranks a terrible 120th in defensive rush EPA. Let’s face it though, Neither team is great at stopping the run as Marshall gives up 4.5 yards per attempt just like Louisiana. Marshall is the best ATS team in college football right now at 10-2. I have a strong lean to Marshall but make sure you get the six.
Marshall +6 – 2 stars
Penn State vs Oregon -3.5 O/U 49.5
I have huge problems with this game because the metrics actually side with Penn State as they rank 10th in offensive EPA and 10th in defensive EPA to Oregon ranking 11th and 13th respectively. The Lions also have a +.37 yards per play advantage. In saying that, James Franklin is terrible in big games and he probably should have lost at USC and at Minnesota.
Penn State ML Sprinkle +150
Clemson vs SMU -2.5 O/U 57
This will be the last conference championship game of the season. Very interesting how Clemson has snuck in with that horrible Miami loss last weekend. This game will be played at bank of America stadium in Charlotte North Carolina. I find this spread very interesting as I have to wonder if you cover the team names, would you still only have SMU by 2.5 points? The Mustangs have been amazing this year. In their only loss to BYU this team didn’t even have their starting quarterback Kevin Jennings in place as Preston Stone was still considered their top guy. Looking at the schedules, they are both almost equally ranked on Sagarin, so the metrics can really tell us the correct story. SMU has a nice net yards per play at 1.8 compared to Clemson sitting at just +1. The Stangs also have a pretty big advantage though the air ranking 5th in passing EPA to 55th for Clemson. The Tigers used to really lean on their defense, but this squad is certainly not one of their best ranking 41st in success rate and 40th in defensive EPA to SMU who ranks 13th in success rate and 4th in EPA. The only way Clemson will be able to move the ball is on the ground where they rank 14th in yards per rush, but the problem is that SMU’s defense ranks an amazing 2nd in yards per rush only allowing 2.8. As long as the Mustangs take care of the ball, they should have a lot of success against the Tigers and will have some explosive plays. I like SMU below the three and this game should be more like a 6 point spread.
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2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State -4.5 O/U 58
This will be a home game for the Gamecocks. It’s nice to see them get this far in only their second year of FBS play. Glad those terrible rules are gone. Despite the regular-season finale loss, the Gamecocks are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last five heading into the title bout. I struggle with this handicap as I know that Jacksonville State did try to take Western Kentucky out last week in a be careful what you wish for scenario. They injured QB Tyler Huff who is questionable for this game. It’s not like their backup is that bad in Logan Smothers, but I think it’s still a downgrade. Jacksonville State might as well be an option team as they have the 4th highest run rate in the nation. Western Kentucky only ranks 102nd in opponent yards per rush and 99th in opponent rush EPA. Looking at last week’s game, the Hilltoppers did a decent job in stopping the run. Was the Gamecocks being vanilla in their play calling? I wasn’t convinced. Either way, I like the under. I think both teams stop each other enough just like last week’s 19-17 game.
Under 58 – 2 stars
UNLV vs Boise State -4.5 O/U 57.5
This is going to be a great game for the Mountain West Championship in Albertson’s stadium in Boise Idaho, AKA the Smurf turf. Many people think that Boise State has some sort of an unreal home field advantage, but the truth is that since 2010, the Broncos are only 42-49-1 at 46.2% which is a losing trend. Looking at the ‘lytics, I definitely see a path for UNLV here. Both teams are great at running the football ranking 16th in rush EPA for the Rebels and 6th in rush EPA for the Broncos. Both rushing defenses rank around 50th in opponent rush EPA. Through the Air, you might think to give the advantage to Boise State as they rank 11th in pass EPA to 49th for UNLV, but the other side of the ball shows me that the Rebels are better at defending the pass ranking 45th in pass EPA while Boise State ranks 81st. From a total net yards per play perspective, the Rebels actually are a nice +1.38 to the Broncos at +1.26. These numbers also factor in a harder schedule as the Rebels schedule ranks 77th on Sagarin while the Broncos are at 89th. The wildcard in all of this is the legs of the quarterback. Maddux Madson will run the ball occasionally, but only has accumulated 215 yards for the season. Even though UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams didn’t really start playing until after three games, he is still the second leading rusher for this Rebels team at 768 yards and 5.91 yards per rush. I think UNLV keeps this close and could win this thing outright.
UNLV +4.5 – 2 stars
Tulane vs Army +4.5 O/U 45.5
There is a simple handicap on this game. Tulane can stop the run, and they can stop the option like they did to Navy a few weeks back winning 35-0. First year Tulane coach Jon Sumrall destroyed Army when he coached at Troy. Same triple option offense with Army and same coach with Jeff Monken. Army’s defense isn’t that good when they face a good team. My power ratings only have this game at Tulane -5, but the matchup screams Tulane as they will be able to move the ball at ease.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Raphael Esparza @VSIDocSports from @DocsSports is back to break down a huge weekend of NFL football! First, Kiev talks about some NFL ATS and Totals trends! Next, Raphael comes and they guys get right into who might be in the Super Bowl for 2025! Then, the guys talk NFL buy low/sell high teams with respect to the market. After that, the boys get right into NFL week 14 with a bunch of analysis and Free Plays! After that, we get into some beer bet long shots that might supply your fridge for a few weeks. Raph gives us 3 of them! Then, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 9-4 for the season. After that, Kiev touches on some UFC 310 with a few thoughts and small plays. Finally, we talk some NFL sharp money and recap our plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell speaks with the media before the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 28, 2021 in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
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We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Josh Nunn @StepOnADuck1 from @ActionNetwork is back to break down some huge football games! First, Kiev talks about the current ATS and O/U trends. Next, Josh comes on and the guys start talking about the college football playoffs and why there are so many problems with a biased committee. Then, the guys talk some buy low/sell high teams for the up coming bowl season. After that, Josh and Kiev get into college football championship week with a bunch of Free Plays! Next, the guys give out some beer bet bangers that could hit for some good + money. Finally, we get into some NCAAF sharp money movement AND recap our plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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