NFL Week 3 Best Bets – Jets vs Bears – Sports Betting
🛩️ New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 🐻 -3.5 O/U 43.5
Week 4 Preview | Soldier Field | 1:00 PM ET
📊 By The Numbers
🐻 Bears (2-1)
✅ 408.0 offensive yards per game (Top 3 NFL offense entering Week 4)
✅ NFL-best 184.3 rushing yards per game
✅ 5.27 yards per rush (NFL leader)
✅ 89 points scored through three games
🛩️ Jets (1-2)
✅ Just 258.3 yards allowed per game (2nd-best defense entering Week 4)
✅ Geno Smith: 783 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
✅ NFL-leading 75.5% completion rate according to the Jets’ preview
✅ Averaging nearly 35 minutes of possession per game
🔥 Key Matchups
🏃 Bears Ground Game vs Jets Front Seven
This is the matchup that could decide the game.
🐻 Chicago owns the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack at 184.3 yards per game.
🛩️ New York’s defense has been excellent overall, but Detroit wore them down late last week. If Chicago controls first down and stays ahead of the chains, the Bears can dominate time of possession.
Edge: 🐻 Bears
🎯 Geno Smith vs Bears Secondary
Geno Smith has quietly been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks:
📈 77-for-102 passing
📈 75.5% completion rate
📈 4 TD, 0 INT
📈 110 passer rating
Chicago’s defense just forced three turnovers against Philadelphia and continues to create pressure at key moments.
Edge: ⚖️ Even
🏈 Bears Quarterback Situation
🚑 Caleb Williams is expected to miss another game because of a hamstring injury.
Last week, veteran Case Keenum stepped in and delivered:
✅ 247 passing yards
✅ 3 total touchdowns
✅ 110.8 passer rating
✅ 0 turnovers
Ben Johnson’s offense continues producing regardless of who’s under center.
Edge: 🐻 Bears Coaching
🚑 Injury Watch
🛩️ Jets
❌ Breece Hall (quad) out
❌ Adonai Mitchell (finger) out
🐻 Bears
❌ Caleb Williams (hamstring) out
The absence of Hall removes New York’s most explosive rushing weapon.
📈 Advanced Stat Edge
| Category | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Offensive YPG | — | 408.0 |
| Defensive YPG Allowed | 258.3 | — |
| Rush YPG | 163 (team leader stats shown) | 184.3 |
| Points Scored | 64 | 89 |
| Points Allowed | 61 | 53 |
🔑 X-Factors
🔥 Can the Jets stop Chicago’s No. 1 rushing attack?
🔥 Can Geno Smith remain turnover-free against a defense that just forced three takeaways?
🔥 Will Chicago’s backup quarterback magic continue for another week?
🏆 Prediction
Jets vs Bears -3.5 O/U 43.5
- It should be pretty clear that the Bears defense isn’t really any good, but somehow the Bear’s D ranks 9th in EPA compared to 13th for the Jets.
- This game will be about how well the offenses perform. I know that Geno Smith has looked serviceable, but that was against a Terrible Titans team, a Packers team with no offensive line, and a Lion’s team who took care of business. The Bears offense ranks 8th in EPA to the Jet’s ranking 11th, and the Bears are at home.
- Backup quarterback Tyson Bagent has been dying for a chance to prove himself. He is much more of a solid backup than people actually no. The Bears are very healthy right now while the Jet’s are missing their top running back, their starting guard, and their number two wide receiver. I think the Bears win by margin here.
Bears -3.5 – 1.5 stars
College Football Saturday Super Plays – Alabama vs Mississippi State – Baylor vs Arizona State – Sports Investing
🏈Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs +6 O/U 60.5
🚨 Game Snapshot
- 🏟️ Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville
- 📺 TV: ABC
- 📅 Date: October 3
- 📊 Records: Alabama 4-0 | Mississippi State 4-0.
- 📈 Win Probability:
- 🔴 Alabama: 65.3%
- 🐶 Mississippi State: 34.7%
🔥 By The Numbers
🔴 Alabama Offense
QB Keelon Russell
- 🎯 1,129 passing yards
- 🏈 8 TD
- ❌ 2 INT
WR Ryan Coleman-Williams
- 🎯 333 receiving yards
- 🏈 3 TD
Alabama has scored:
- 💥 48 points vs East Carolina
- 💥 45 vs Kentucky
- 💥 50 vs Florida State
- 💥 49 vs South Carolina
That’s 48.0 PPG through four games.
🐶 Mississippi State Offense
QB Kamario Taylor
- 🎯 1,192 passing yards
- 🏈 14 TD
- ❌ 2 INT
RB Frank Bothwell
- 🏃 402 rushing yards
WR A. Evans III
- 🎯 408 receiving yards
Mississippi State has scored:
- 💥 62
- 💥 38
- 💥 41
- 💥 31
Average: 43.0 PPG.
📊 Advanced Analytics Matchup
Offensive Firepower Index
(TD-to-INT Ratio)
🏈 Alabama QB:
- 8 TD / 2 INT
- ✅ 4.0 ratio
🏈 Mississippi State QB:
- 14 TD / 2 INT
- ✅ 7.0 ratio
📈 Edge: 🐶 Mississippi State
Balance Score
(Passing + Rushing Production)
🐶 Mississippi State:
- 1,192 passing
- 402 rushing
🔴 Alabama:
- 1,129 passing
- 225 leading rusher yards
📈 Edge: 🐶 Mississippi State
Strength of Schedule Factor
🔴 Alabama victories:
- ✅ Kentucky
- ✅ Florida State
- ✅ South Carolina
🐶 Mississippi State victories:
- ✅ Minnesota
- ✅ South Carolina
- ✅ Missouri
📈 Slight Edge: 🔴 Alabama
⚔️ Key Matchup
🔴 Alabama Secondary vs 🐶 Kamario Taylor
Taylor enters averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game and has thrown 14 touchdown passes already.
If Alabama can’t generate pressure:
- 🚀 Taylor can stretch the field
- 🎯 Evans III can create explosive plays
- 🏟️ Starkville becomes a factor
But if Alabama forces obvious passing downs:
- 💪 Talent advantage favors the Tide
- 🏈 Russell gets extra possessions
🎯 X-Factors
🔴 Alabama
✅ Explosive scoring ability
✅ Better overall roster depth
✅ Ability to create quick-strike drives
🐶 Mississippi State
✅ Home-field advantage
✅ More productive QB statistically
✅ Opportunity to pull off a statement SEC upset
🔮 Prediction
Alabama vs Mississippi State +6 O/U 60.5
- This is the spot that we want to put the fade train for Alabama.
- I bet when the team scheduled Mississippi State between South Carolina and Georgia, they didn’t know what they might be up against.
- The Bulldogs have a massive 2.49 net yards per play compared to Alabama at 1.85. Both strength of schedules are close on Sagarin ranking 19th and 20th.
- I thought that Alabama was fortunate to win at Kentucky as well as at home against Florida State. There was some funky box scores going on.
- I still factor in preseason info this week, and that is why I have Alabama by about 5.5 points on a neutral, but that doesn’t suggest that Alabama should be this big of a favorite on the road.
- I think that this is a three point game, so I will take the Bulldogs along with some Moneyline.
Mississippi State +6 – 2.5 stars
🏈🔥 Baylor Bears vs Arizona State Sun Devils Preview
🚨 Game Snapshot
- 🏟️ Venue: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
- 📺 TV: ESPN
- 📅 Kickoff: Saturday Night
- 📊 Records: Baylor 3-1 | Arizona State 2-1
- 📈 Win Probability:
- 🔱 Arizona State: 63.2%
- 🐻 Baylor: 36.8%
🔥 By The Numbers
🔱 Arizona State Offense
QB Cutter Boley
- 🎯 736 passing yards
- 🏈 9 TD
- ❌ 2 INT
- ✅ 63.1% completion rate
WR Reed Harris
- 🎯 374 receiving yards
- 🏈 5 TD
Team Offense
- 📊 426.0 YPG
- 💥 38.0 PPG
- 🏃 165.7 rushing YPG
- ✈️ 260.3 passing YPG.
🐻 Baylor Offense
QB Nate Bennett
- 🎯 567 passing yards
- 🏈 6 TD
- ❌ 2 INT
- ✅ 75.0% completion rate
RB Dawson Pendergrass
- 🏃 288 rushing yards
WR Gavin Freeman
- 🎯 364 receiving yards
- 🏈 2 TD
Team Offense
- 📊 435.8 YPG
- 💥 29.8 PPG
- 🏃 150.8 rushing YPG
- ✈️ 285.0 passing YPG
📊 Advanced Analytics Matchup
🎯 Quarterback Efficiency
🔱 Boley
- 9 TD
- 2 INT
- 4.5 TD/INT ratio
🐻 Bennett
- 6 TD
- 2 INT
- 3.0 TD/INT ratio
📈 Edge: 🔱 Arizona State
🧱 Defensive Strength
Baylor Defense
- 🚫 13.0 PPG Allowed
- 🚫 97.0 Rush YPG Allowed
- 🚫 306.0 Total YPG Allowed
Arizona State Defense
- 🚫 24.0 PPG Allowed
- 🚫 285.7 Total YPG Allowed
- 🚫 161.3 Pass YPG Allowed
📈 Edge: 🐻 Baylor scoring defense 📈 Edge: 🔱 Arizona State pass defense.
🔥 Hidden Metric
Baylor Pass Rush
The Bears are coming off a game against Colorado where they produced:
- 💥 5 sacks
- 💥 13 tackles for loss
- 💥 6 pass breakups
This could be the most important matchup of the night. [cbssports.com]
⚔️ Key Matchup
🐻 Baylor Front Seven vs 🔱 Arizona State Offensive Line
Arizona State’s offense has been efficient, but Baylor enters as one of the Big 12’s most disruptive defenses.
📊 Baylor ranks near the top of the conference in:
- 💥 Sacks
- 💥 Tackles for Loss
Arizona State must keep Cutter Boley clean or Baylor’s pass rush can completely change the game.
🚨 X-Factors
🔱 Arizona State
✅ Home-field advantage
✅ Bye-week preparation
✅ Strong secondary allowing just 161.3 pass yards per game
✅ Reed Harris’ big-play ability
🐻 Baylor
✅ Elite scoring defense
✅ Physical defensive front
✅ Better overall rushing defense
✅ Ability to win ugly, low-scoring games
📈 Advanced Stat Edge
| Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| QB Production | 🔱 Arizona State |
| Passing Offense | 🐻 Baylor |
| Scoring Offense | 🔱 Arizona State |
| Pass Defense | 🔱 Arizona State |
| Rush Defense | 🐻 Baylor |
| Home Field | 🔱 Arizona State |
| Pass Rush | 🐻 Baylor |
🔮 Prediction
Baylor vs Arizona State -3.5 O/U 49.5
- If there is a team not to trust in the Big 12, it’s Baylor.
- This Bears team had two easy opponents vs FCS, and Louisiana Tech. They could not move the ball vs Auburn.
- ASU has had the harder schedule ranking 43rd in the nation to 79th for Baylor. The Devils have a huge 1.71 yards per play to 1.1 for the Bears.
- I like the fact that ASU is coming off the bye week at 2-1. Kenny Dillingham is the better coach over Dave Aranda.
- I like the Sun Devils here by 7.
ASU -4 – 2 stars
NFL Week 4 Sharp Money Movement
As of Thursday 10/1 – The most prominent NFL sharp moves.
Sharp Money On:
- Rams -2.5 to -3 at the Eagles – 61% tickets and 67% of the money.
- Bills -6 to -7 hosting the Patriots – 66% tickets and 76% of the money.
- Cardinals PK to -2.5 at the Giants – 61% tickets and 69% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Colts vs Commanders under 49.5 to 48 – 93% tickets and 95% of the money.
- Rams vs Eagles under 47.5 to 43.5 – 47% tickets and 56% of the money.
- Packers vs Buccaneers under 45.5 to 39.5 – 34% tickets and 56% of the money.
- Titans vs Ravens under 47.5 to 43 – 53% tickets and 60% of the money.
- Dolphins vs Vikings under 42.5 to 39.5 – 36% tickets and 51% of the money.
Andrew’s Week 5 College Football Free Picks
🍺 Weekly Recap
Best Bets sit at 4‑4‑1 after a 1‑1‑1 week, and once again the board taught us a few things. First: UTSA still doesn’t play defense, but it flat‑out doesn’t matter in the Alamodome. That offense is a runaway train. They spotted Colorado State 14 points, shrugged, and still nearly covered the 14‑point spread. And credit to CSU — they’re way ahead of schedule. Their win total was 3.5, they’re on the road with a backup quarterback, and they’re still throwing punches.
Then there’s UConn. UConn, UConn, UConn. They jumped out 14‑0, let Miami back in, traded haymakers, and somehow landed right where the number said they should. Neither team has a pass defense, so it turned into a track meet. We were a little lucky, sure — but these teams are damn near equals, and if you grabbed the hook, you cashed.
Auburn… yeah, that one hurt. Every week I convince myself Byrum Brown and that offense are about to wake up, and every week they hit the snooze button. They should’ve cruised past 9.5, but the second half was a brick wall. If they can’t move the ball against that Vandy defense, I don’t see them being very competitive in the SEC this season.
🔥 Best Bets
Temple Owls (1-3) at USF Bulls (4-0)
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: USF -6.5
Current Line: USF -6.5
Analysis: Temple is catching 6.5, and as I’m writing this those numbers are starting to disappear. The Owls have blown two straight games — a late lead against Toledo that slipped away in overtime, and then another late collapse against Army. They’re due for something to finally break their way.
USF, meanwhile, keeps doing the same thing every week: playing down to their competition. I mentioned it a few weeks ago, and last week was the perfect example. They squeaked by one of the worst teams in FBS and didn’t score a single point until the fourth quarter. This team has talent, but they cannot pull away from anybody.
So here’s the theory: Temple is due for a win. USF is due for a loss. And even if USF manages to survive again, it’s hard to see them winning by margin when they haven’t shown the ability to separate from anyone.
With the 6.5 still hanging around — barely — I’ll take the points.
Pick: Temple (+6.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3) at Georgia State Panthers (3-1)
Location: Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: Old Dominion -1.5
Current Line: Georgia State -2.5
Analysis: Georgia State and Old Dominion have opened the season heading in completely opposite directions. Georgia State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Sun Belt, while Old Dominion has been one of the biggest disappointments. And unlike the Temple–USF matchup, I don’t expect that trend to flip here.
ODU should get their starting quarterback back this week, but this is also their first time leaving the state of Virginia all season. Now they have to go down to Atlanta and deal with a Georgia State team that’s playing with confidence and rhythm. The Monarchs’ offense still hasn’t found its footing, and while they should improve as the season goes on, this is not the spot — not on the road, not against a team that’s clicking early.
Georgia State should be able to keep the momentum rolling and control enough of this game to win by at least a field goal.
Pick: Georgia State (-2.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time: 11:00 PM EST
Channel: FOX
Opening Line: Arizona -7.5
Current Line: Arizona -6.5
Analysis: If you live in the Midwest, you’ve probably never walked out your front door at 11:00 PM into a brisk 90‑degree evening — and then tried to play a football game in it. That’s exactly what Cincinnati is about to deal with in Tucson.
Cincy’s had a great start to the season, but this matchup is a problem. They’ve been feasting on shitty run defenses, bullying teams they physically outmatch. Now they finally have to leave home, fly across the country, and run into an Arizona front that actually knows how to stop the run — all while baking in desert heat that doesn’t cool off at night.
The way to beat this Arizona defense is over the top, and I don’t trust JC French to do that for four quarters. If Cincinnati can’t dominate on the ground, they’re going to be stuck in long passing downs, and that’s where Arizona’s defense thrives.
I’ll take the Cats under a touchdown, holding down home field and handing the Bearcats their first loss of the year.
Pick: Arizona (-6.5)
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College Football Week 5 Sharp Money Movement
As of Wednesday 9/30 – 5 of the most prominent sharp moves.
Sharp Money On:
- North Texas +3.5 to +1.5 at Tulsa – 56% tickets and 62% of the money.
- Northwestern +7 to +2.5 hosting Penn State – 34% tickets and 40% of the money.
- Alabama -3.5 to -6 at Mississippi State – 65% tickets are 76% of the money.
- Air Force -2 to -3.5 hosting Navy – 48% ticket and 58% of the money.
- Florida -2.5 to -5.5 at Missouri – 84% tickets and 94% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Boston College vs SMU under 57.5 to 55.5 – 81% tickets and 81% of the money.
- Syracuse vs UCONN under 52.5 to 50.5 – 89% tickets and 89% of the money.
- Vanderbilt vs Georgie under 57.5 to 51 – 78% tickets and 87% of the money.
- Auburn vs Tennessee under 57 to 54.5 – 90% tickets and 90% of the money.
- Army vs LA Tech over 44.5 to 47.5 – 66% tickets and 68% of the money.
Podcast 865 – 89 – 26 – With Shawn Knoche – NFL week 4 Best Bets – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Shawn Knoche @TheGreatKnoche from @TheOddsBreakers comes on to break down a BIG NFL Week 4. First, Kiev talks the early trends of teams that cover, don’t cover and totals. Next, Shawn comes on and the guys get right into what’s wrong with the Packers. Then, The guys talk some buy low/sell high for some future value in the marketplace. After that, Shawn and Kiev cover the NFL slate of games with some best bets! Then we give out a few Beer Bet Bangers to multiply some beer money with some plus money bets. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money moves and recaps out plays. If you have any questions for the podcast, or any games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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