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College Football Week 10 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots:

  • Memphis at Rice after beating USF is one.
  • Ole Miss hosting South Carolina after they beat Oklahoma.

Get Up Spots:

  • Penn State better fight at Ohio State to get back in any discussions.
  • Maryland could make some noise if they play hard vs Indiana.
  • Oklahoma needs to dust off at Tennessee.
  • NC State could do things if they upset Georgia Tech.
  • Florida State better show some life hosting Wake Forest

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Indiana could look past Maryland to Penn State.
  • Navy could look past North Texas to Notre Dame.

Short Rest:

  • None

Long Rest:

  • FIU with an extra day at Missouri State.
  • Virginia Tech with an extra day hosting Georgia Tech.
  • Cal with an extra day hosting Virginia.
  • Arizona off the bye at Colorado.
  • East Carolina off the bye at Temple.
  • Liberty off the bye hosting Delaware.
  • Maryland off the bye hosting Indiana.
  • Notre Dame off the bye at Boston College.
  • UTEP off the bye at Kennesaw State.
  • UAB off the bye at UCONN.
  • UCF off the bye at Baylor is one.
  • UNLV off the bye hosting New Mexico is there.
  • USC off the bye at Nebraska is there for sure.

College Football Week 9 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
  • FIU yards were mainly in garbage time.
  • Louisiana Tech outgained Western Kentucky 449 to 340 yet lost in OT 28-27.   Equal turnovers at one, but boneheaded clock management and nine penalties stunted the Bulldogs.
  • Bowling Green out-gained Kent State 379 to 294 yet lost 24-21.  Equal turnovers at zero, but bad red zone and no quarterback got the Falcons.
  • North Carolina out-gained Virginia 353 to 358 yet lost 17-16 in overtime.  A 3-1 turnover ratio did in Chapel Bill.
  • Buffalo out-gained Akron 357 to 325  yet lost 24-16.  A disgusting 5-3 turnover ratio stabbed the Bulls. 
  • Washington State only outgained Toledo 321 to 299 yet won 28-7.   Toledo won the turnover battle 2-3 but was bad on fourth down going 1-4.
  • Iowa State out-gained BYU 495 to 410 yet lost 41-27.  A terrible 4-0 turnover ratio cloned the Clones.
  • Missouri out-gained Vanderbilt 376 to 265 yet lost 17-10.  Equal turnovers at 1 but just bad red zone efficiency and a quarterback injury got the Tigers.
  • Louisiana out-gained Troy 371 to 345 yet lost 35-23.   A 3-1 turnover ratio did them in.
  • Arizona State out-gained Houston 426 to 384 yet lost 24-16.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and terrible red zone efficiency got the Sun Devils.

Fantasy Football Week 9

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Byes:  Browns, Jets, Eagles, and Buccaneers

Key Injuries:

  • RB Cam Skattebo out for the season with a broken ankle.
  • QB Spencer Rattler was benched and may have lost his starting job.
  • RB Saquon Barkley hurt his groin but is day to day.
  • WR Braxton Barrios went out with a chest injury.
  • RB Quinshon Judkins with a shoulder injury.

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Tyron Tracy for Skattebo injury.
  • RB Dylan Sampson for the Judkins injury.
  • RB Devin Singletary for the Skattebo injury.
  • RB Tank Bigsby is the man to have behind Barkley.
  • RB Samaje Perine had 9 carries and 94 yards.
  • WR Roman Wilson had 5 targets and a TD for the Steelers.
  • WR Xavier Hutchinson had a good day for the Texans.
  • WR Chimere Dike has been balling.
  • WR Troy Franklin has been big.
  • RB Isaiah Davis had a day for the Jets.
  • TE Mason Taylor had a touchdown

Non-Starters trending up for week 9:

  • RB Ameer Abdula vs the Steelers isn’t a bad choice.
  • QB Kyler Murray against the Cowboys may be a must start.
  • QB Trevor Lawrence against the Raiders isn’t bad.
  • WR Davante Adams against the Saints is easy.
  • TE Tyler Higbee against the Saints is huge.
  • QB Caleb Williams against the Bengals is big.
  • WR DJ Moore against the Bengals makes sense.
  • RB Tyron Tracy against the banged up 49ers is easy.
  • DEF Packers against the Panthers is sweet.
  • WR Trey Flowers against the Dolphins is big.
  • TE Oronda Gadsden against the Titans is a no brainer.
  • WR Justin Jefferson against the Lions is nice.

Busts:

  • WR Jaylen Waddell against the Ravens is bad.
  • QB JJ McCarthy against the Lions.
  • RB De’Von Achane against the Ravens is rough.
  • QB Drake May against the Falcons is sus.
  • WR Nico Collins against the Broncos is dangerous.
  • WR Chris Olave against the Rams.
  • QB Joe Flacco against the Bears is bad.
  • RB Rico Dowdle against the Packers is bad.
  • QB Bo Nix against the Texans isn’t good at all.

Nasty Sleeper:   WR Alec Pierce against the Terrible Steelers pass defense.

Podcast 750 – 86 – 25 – NFL & College Football Recap & Play – Fantasy Football Week 9 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a GREAT show for you today!  Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis.  Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week.  Who could let down?  Who could bet flat?  Who has long or short rest?  After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

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Monday Night Football Video Prop – Commanders vs Chiefs – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
@theoddsbreakers

#freepicks #freeplays #sportsbetting #mondaynightfootball Commanders vs Chiefs best bet.

♬ Monday Night Football (Trap Remix) – Trap Remix Guys

NFL Week 8 Sunday Night Football Play – Packers vs Steelers – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Packers vs Steelers +3 O/U 45.5

📅 Game Details

  • Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
  • Broadcast: FOX

🏈 Matchup Overview

Category Green Bay Packers Pittsburgh Steelers
Record 3–4 4–3
Points Per Game 20.0 16.1
Yards Per Game 298.7 271.7
Turnover Differential +2 +7
Third Down Conversion 37.6% 32.7%
Red Zone Efficiency 50.0% 45.0%

🔍 Key Matchup Notes

  • Quarterback Play: Jordan Love (Packers) has shown flashes of brilliance but struggles with consistency. Kenny Pickett (Steelers) has been steady but unspectacular.
  • Defensive Edge: The Steelers boast a top-tier pass rush led by T.J. Watt, while the Packers rely on a bend-but-don’t-break secondary.
  • Injury Watch: Packers RB Aaron Jones and Steelers S Minkah Fitzpatrick are both questionable, which could impact offensive rhythm and defensive coverage respectively.

🏈 Sunday Night Showdown: Packers vs. Steelers Preview

The Green Bay Packers (4-1-1) head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers (4-2) in a highly anticipated Week 8 matchup at Acrisure Stadium, kicking off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

🔥 Key Storylines

  • Aaron Rodgers Reunion: Rodgers, now quarterbacking the Steelers, faces his former team for the first time after 18 seasons in Green Bay. He won four MVPs and a Super Bowl with the Packers.
  • Playoff Implications: Both teams lead their divisions—Packers atop the NFC and Steelers leading the AFC North—making this a potential playoff preview.
  • Recent Form: Green Bay is coming off a narrow win over Arizona, while Pittsburgh seeks redemption after a close loss to Cincinnati.

📊 Team Comparison

Category Packers (4-1-1) Steelers (4-2)
Offense (Overall) 14th 25th
Defense (Overall) 6th 19th
Turnover Differential Even +5
Against the Spread 2-4 3-3

Prediction:

  • The Aaron Rogers revenge game.   I can see why they put this on for Sunday night football.
  • Normally, I would fade these types of angles, but I am not so sure about doing that here…
  • The Steelers have been a decent team this year.   They are a nice 8th in offensive EPA and rank 22nd on defense.
  • The Packers have been better than the Steelers ranking 4th in offensive EPA and 11th on defense.   One could think that the Packers are a super bowl contender.   Well that may be so, but there are some serious things to consider in this matchup.
  • First of all, the Steelers are coming off of a tough loss on the road at Cincinnati.   They will be motivated here to get right.   Next, the Steelers have an extra three days of rest for this game.  In the NFL, the season can become rather grueling and I have to think of this as a pretty good advantage.
  • Another key thing that I have to look at here is home road splits.  The Packers are an amazing 6.3 yards per play on offense at home, but that number swells up greatly on the road all the way down to 5.1.   Last week against the Cardinals, the Pack were rather fortunate to come away with a win.
  • This will be Green Bay’s second road game here.
  • From an injury standpoint, the Packers look more banged up.  The Steelers may get a few key guys back this week like Isaiah Loudermilk and defensive end and Malik Harrison at Linebacker.
  • Is there something to Aaron Roger’s revenge spot?  I honestly don’t know how to quantify that, but the fact that the Steelers are currently a winning team, I could see the guys rallying around Rogers to get the job done on Sunday night football.  Take the points.

Steelers +3 – 2 stars

College Football Saturday Super-Plays – Texas vs Mississippi State – Rutgers vs Purdue – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
- 
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!  

54% Lifetime College &NFL Football ATS/Props/Totals

51% 2024 College Football & NFL -34U (Bad season)

56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball  3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!




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Texas vs Mississippi State +7 O/U 45.5

🏈 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 18 Texas (5–2, 2–1 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (4–3, 0–3 SEC)
  • Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network
  • Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, Starkville, MS

🔍 Team Form & Storylines

Texas Longhorns

  • Coming off a narrow 16–13 overtime win against Kentucky, Texas is clinging to its College Football Playoff hopes.
  • The offense, led by QB Arch Manning, has struggled—Manning completed just 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards last week.
  • The defense remains elite, allowing fewer than 14 points in five of the last six games and ranking 13th nationally in total defense.
  • A loss here would likely end their SEC title and playoff aspirations.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • The Bulldogs started 4–3 but are on a three-game SEC losing streak, including a close 23–21 loss to Florida.
  • Their offense averages 31.9 points per game, but the defense has been inconsistent, especially against the run.
  • Second-year head coach Jeff Lebby has doubled last season’s win total, but the team is still seeking its first conference win.

🔑 Key Matchups

  • Texas Defense vs. MSU Offensive Line: Texas has racked up 21 sacks this season, and Mississippi State’s ability to protect the quarterback will be crucial.
  • Time of Possession: MSU is known for controlling the clock, which could be a problem for a Texas team that struggled with possession against Kentucky.

📊 Betting Lines (via BetMGM)

  • Spread: Texas -7
  • Moneyline: Texas -250, Mississippi State +200
  • Over/Under: 44.5 points

📊 Advanced Team Stats

Texas Longhorns

  • Record: 5–2 (2–1 SEC)
  • Offensive Efficiency:
    • Yards per game: 368.1 (81st in FBS)
    • Passing: 218.7 ypg (79th)
    • Rushing: 149.4 ypg (74th)
    • Scoring: 26.7 ppg (80th)
  • Defensive Efficiency:
    • Yards allowed per game: 279.7 (13th)
    • Passing defense: 196.4 ypg (39th)
    • Rushing defense: 83.3 ypg (6th)
    • Scoring defense: 13.9 ppg (Top 10 nationally)
  • Key Metric: 21 sacks on the season, top 25 in sack rate

Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • Record: 4–3 (0–3 SEC)
  • Offensive Efficiency:
    • Yards per game: 405.9 (58th)
    • Passing: 227.7 ypg (70th)
    • Rushing: 178.1 ypg (48th)
    • Scoring: 31.9 ppg (50th)
  • Defensive Efficiency:
    • Yards allowed per game: 351.3 (52nd)
    • Passing defense: 187.3 ypg (30th)
    • Rushing defense: 164.0 ypg (98th)
    • Scoring defense: 20.3 ppg (37th)

🔮 Prediction

  • This market on Texas games is the gift that keeps on giving.  
  • The Longhorn offense ranks a bad 102nd in success rate and 91st in EPA. They have a solid defense ranking 9th in EPA, but they are on the road this week.
  • The Bulldogs on the other hand are quite opposite.  They rank a nice 33rd in offensive success rate and 49th in EPA, but tend to struggle more on defense ranking 61st in success rate and 49th in defensive EPA.
  • Looking at the numbers, I think that the home dog is live here.  Mississippi State had Florida last week dead nuts, and quarterback Blake Shapen made a bad decision at the end of the game throwing a pick.
  • Now at home, I think that this powerful Bulldog offense could win this game, if not back door this large spread.
  • I think that Jeff Lebby will have his team fired up to play the Longhorns here.  Take the dog.

Mississippi State +7 – 2 stars

Rutgers vs Purdue +2.5 O/U 59.5

  • Purdue is in a home run spot right here.  It is a Home run homecoming spot.  
  • Sometimes teams are better than their record and that happens when they have a very hard schedule, and/or they turn the ball over all of the time.
  • Well in Purdue’s case, they have both.  The Boilermaker schedule ranks 15th on Sagarin, and they are a bad -11 in turnover margin.   
  • I know that Purdue’s starting quarter back Ryan Browne will most likely miss this week, but I actually prefer Malachi Singleton as he is the more dynamic runner with some better stats to boot.  
  • The Good news for Purdue is that even with the hard schedule, this team is a decent -.17 net yards per play.   
  • Purdue’s opponent this week in Rutgers is a nasty -2.19 yards per play on a schedule that ranks 30th in the league.   Rutgers ranks a pretty bad 123rd in defensive success rate to Purdue’s 77th.  I think the Boilers get their first conference win here at home.
  • Take the short dog at home on Homecoming night.

Purdue +2.5 – 2 stars

NFL Week 8 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Thursday 10/23 – The most prominent sharp sides and totals:

Sharp Money On:

  • Falcons -6.5 to -7.5 hosting the Dolphins – 77% tickets and 78% of the money.
  • Cowboys +5.5 to +3 at Broncos – 83% tickets and 91% of the money.
  • Chiefs -9.5 to -12.5 hosting the Commanders – 67% tickets and 74% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Dolphins vs Falcons under 46.5 to 44.5 – 45% tickets and 74% of the money.
  • Bills vs Panthers under 47.5 to 46.5 – 50% tickets and 68% of the money.
  • Packers vs Steelers over 44.5 to 45.5 – 45% tickets and 67% of the money.
  • Cowboys vs Broncos over 45.5 to 50.5 – 38% tickets and 45% of the money.

 

College Football Friday Freebie – Illinois vs Washington – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-


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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!  

54% Lifetime College &NFL Football ATS/Props/Totals

51% 2024 College Football & NFL -34U (Bad season)

56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball  3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

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College Football Week 9 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 10/22 – The Five most prominent sharp sides and totals:

Sharp Money On:

  • Indiana -21.5 to -25.5 hosting UCLA – 41% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • Ohio -9.5 to -12 at Eastern Michigan – 62% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • Wake Forest +6.5 to +2.5 hosting SMU – 77% tickets and 96% of the money.
  • Mississippi State +8.5 to +7 hosting Texas – 84% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Michigan -10 to -14.5 at Michigan State – 58% tickets and 99% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Ole Miss vs Oklahoma over 50.5 to 54.5 – 57% tickets and 65% of the money.
  • Northwestern vs Nebraska over 42.5 to 44.5 – 63% tickets and 78% of the money.
  • Bowling Green vs Kent State under 49.5 to 47.5 – 50% tickets and 71% of the money.
  • Louisiana Monroe vs Southern Miss over 47.5 to 50.5 – 30% tickets and 54% of the money.
  • Texas A&M vs LSU under 52.5 to 48.5 – 80% tickets and 84% of the money.
  • Colorado vs Utah under 55.5 to 50 – 93% tickets and 94% of the money
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