We have a GREAT show for you today! Mike Palm @MikePalmCirca from @CircaLasVegas @CircaSports is back to break down a massive NFL Season! First, we talk about contests. What is new for the Circa? What does the Grandissimo mean? Next, we get into what the guarantees are for Circa Millions and Circa Survivor! What has changed from last year? After that, Mike and Kiev talk about NFL divisions, and if they each like any future plays with some season win totals! Plenty of free picks! Next, Mike and Kiev talk about some of the MVP and coach of the year markets. Finally, the guys get into NFL week 1! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Get ready for fireworks as No. 1 contender Brandon Royval takes on surging prospect Joshua Van in a high-stakes flyweight clash at UFC 317 in Las Vegas. This bout wasn’t originally on the card—Royval was set to face Manel Kape in a title eliminator, but when Kape withdrew due to injury, Van stepped in on short notice.
🧠 Tale of the Tape
Fighter
Brandon Royval
Joshua Van
Record
17-7
14-2
Age
32
23
Height
5’9″
5’5″
Reach
68″
66″ (approx.)
UFC Ranking
#1 Flyweight
#12 Flyweight
Style
Dynamic grappler/striker
Crisp boxer, fast hands
🔍 What to Watch For
Royval’s Experience: He’s only lost to champions like Pantoja and Moreno, and owns wins over top-tier fighters like Kai Kara-France and Moreno (in a rematch).
Van’s Momentum: Riding a four-fight win streak, including a dominant finish over Bruno Silva just weeks ago at UFC 316.
Short Notice Factor: Van is stepping in fresh but unprepared for Royval’s unorthodox style and elite grappling.
🧪 Prediction Breakdown
Royval’s Path to Victory: Mixes striking with relentless scrambles. If he gets Van to the ground, his submission game could be decisive.
Van’s Upset Potential: He’s got sharp boxing and solid takedown defense. If he keeps it standing, he could outpoint Royval or land something big.
💰 Betting Odds Snapshot
Van: Slight favorite at -125
Royval: Underdog at +105
Prediction:
This is going to be a banger! The handicap on this fight is simple. It really has to do with the amount of rounds that this fight is scheduled to go. I think that Rovyall is the more rounded fighter with a big strength of opponent advantage. The problem with this fight and all light weight fights, is that volume is key. Royvall’s path to victory is wrestling his opponent, but there will not be enough time in this matchup for takedowns. Joshua van has an 81% take-down defense, and over three rounds he will not tire out. Joshua Vann is a boxer, and he is going to throw. Van lands 8.2 significant strikes per round, while Rovall is low for this weight at 4.46. Brandon will also have to be careful as Van does know how to shoot take-downs while Royval only has a 45% take-down defense. I like the up and coming guy here in a three round fight. The number isn’t too much to lay.
Joshua Van -125 – 1.5 stars
Bonus Play: Beniel Dariush -105 – 1 star (BetMGM) – Dariush is better than Moicano no matter how you slice it. He will have advantages both standing and on the ground. He also has better defense.
Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June was less than stellar to start dropping 13 units the first two weeks, but we’ve rallied back and had a seven day winning streak end yesterday. For the season we currently sit at 77-79 +3.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays.
My Analysis today turns to Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH where the Cleveland Guardians (40-39) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-38) at 6:10 ET. The current line sits with the Cardinals as slight favorites at -124 (Guardians +114) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -115. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees with a chance for light rain. The wind blowing out slightly to right center at roughly 5-10mph.
The home Guardians will start Luis Ortiz who is coming off his best outing of the year Saturday in Sacromento where he held the Athletics scoreless over six innings with 10 Ks and 2 BBs. He currently sits with a 4.30 ERA, but just a 3.64 xFIP. His K-rate is way up this season as he is striking out over 10 batter per nine innings. The walks and home runs have been the major issue as his 14.3% HR/FB rate.
On the other side of the diamond we will see Sonny “Pickles” Gray taking the hill for the Cardinals. Gray is very all or nothing as most of his damage to his ERA has come in just three of his fifteen starts. He holds a 3.72 ERA with a minuscule 3.11xFIP. He is striking out 9.57 per nine innings and walking only 1.81. That’s a greater than 5/1 ratio which is elite stuff.
So what’s the angle?
Well on the offensive side of things the Cardinals have been far superior against right handed pitching featuring a .738 OPS and they strike out 21.9% of their at-bats while the Guardians hold a .691 OPS with a 24.1% whiff rate. The Cardinals were shutout the last two days by really good Cubs pitching and should be ready to bounce back here to the their form of the prior ten days when they averaged 6.4 runs per game. The Guardians are averaging just 2.7 runs per game over that same stretch.
While both pitchers can fix problems with the strikeout Gray creates many less for himself than Ortiz does via the walk, and he has a much lower HR rate against him.
Both teams feature similar bullpen ERAs with the Cards sitting at 3.85 and the Guardians at 3.80. Neither pen used there key pieces yesterday so everyone should be rested and ready to go.
With the wind blowing out I want the better offense with the guy that keeps the ball in the park better on my side at this short of a price. I have this closer to Cards -145 so I’m taking the value here and playing the favorite.
We have a GREAT show for you today! The one and only Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from Brad Powers Sports is back to break down a HUGE year of college football! First, Kiev get’s into the @CircaSports football contests landscape and discusses how to get in! Next, Brad comes on and the guys get right into his new/old life back in Ohio. Then, the guys talk college football rule changes and playoff guarantees. Next, the boys get into what might fix college footballs transfer situations, NIL, and continuity issues. After that, Brad and Kiev talk college football conferences with a buy low & sell high perspective. We get a few good questions as they pop up as well as some great best bets! Next, the guys talk some long shots and who might win it all! Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 317 for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
AFC West – The AFC West last year was a somewhat weak division that I expect to be much stronger for 2025. All four coaches have been to super bowls with three of them all winning at least one. Jim Harbaugh hasn’t gotten back there for a while due to his national championship stint over at Michigan. The biggest question is if the Chiefs are ever going to falter. Can the other great coaches catch up? What are the big personnel changes? This division plays the AFC South and the NFC East which I would call a pretty favorable draw. The AFC South is garbage, and the NFC East is top-heavy. Let’s see how it all shakes out.
Best Bet: Chargers over 9.5 wins +105 – 1 star (FD)
Summary: Last season, the Chiefs did things what the Chiefs do best. They win games, and they get to super bowls. It’s hard to quantify what has been happening with this team, because on paper, they look just a bit above average. Great playmakers, great coaching, and a ton of NFL love gets them where they need to be. The Chief’s “luck” ranking last season from teamrankings.com was easily the highest in NFL history at 5.2. The Vikings were second at 3.2 which would have gotten them number one many of the other years. The formula to bet the Chiefs is to take them when they are short favorites or short dogs, but fade them when they are a large favorite against the bad teams in the NFL. Last season’s Kansas City team should have lost outright to the Falcons and the Panthers, while they didn’t sniff the cover. Last season, this Chiefs team only ranked 9th on EPA on offense, and 15th in EPA on defense. They should have not won 15 games and their Pythagorean win total discrepancy is massive as they should have won closer to 10 games. This number doesn’t even include the fact that they tanked their final regular season game. This Chiefs team is getting older in their key areas. Tight End Travis Kelce took a large step back last season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, may not be considered old yet, but maybe the finer things in life may have gotten to him some, and his competitiveness could take a hit. I While I am not sure that will happen, I still think that, right now, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the best playmaker in the NFL. Lamar is right there too. The good news for Kansas City this coming season is that they are attempting to fix their offensive line. They lost some pieces over the years, but they were able to draft an Ohio State guy and pick up Jaylon Moore in free agency. The receiving crew should be fine with a healthy Hollywood Brown and rookie sensation Xavier Worthy leading the way. I expect Noah Gray to steal some of Kelce’s tight end reps this season as well for all of you fantasy gurus. The only direction that I can go with this Chiefs team is under 11.5 wins. Regression has to happen sooner than later unless the NFL officials once again give the Chiefs some serious help during crunch time in their games.
My Number: 10.1
Action Under 11.5 wins for 1 star
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 3.5
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 9.5
2024 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 11.37
Schedule: Medium – at large @Miami, vs Minnesota, vs Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses – RB JK Dobbins, Edge Joey Bosa, CB Kristian Fulton, WR Josh Palmer, DT Poona Ford, LB Nick Niemann, DE Morgan Fox.
Key additions: G Mekhi Becton, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, WR Mike Williams, TE Tyler Conklin, CB Benjamin St-Juste.
Summary: Jim Harbaugh doing Jim Harbaugh things. Going from five to eleven wins is quite something, and if it wasn’t for KOC, Jim might have gotten the coach of the year. In saying that, there aren’t many coaches that I trust more than Harbaugh. Jim and his philosophy instills belief in his guys. If Harbaugh is about one thing, it’s about the trenches. He loves his big men and I do too. Notice how the Chargers let JK Dobbins walk after having a great year that was barely hindered by injuries. This team instead signs Najee Harris which should be an upgrade. Drafting Omarion Hampton basically tells us all that they are a run focused team who will pass the ball when needed. I do not see a large problem shedding Joey Bosa, as it was hard enough just to keep the guy healthy and on the field enough to make a seasonal impact. I do like the addition of guard Mekhi Becton, and tight end Tyler Conklin. The Chargers are building a team that will want to punch you in the mouth. I expect that they will run clock and keep some low scores. Last season, the Bolts ranked 12th in offensive EPA and 5th on defense. This season, they have a winnable schedule, and Jim will do it his way. I think the Chargers win this division.
My Number: 11.19 wins
Action – Chargers to win AFC West +300 – .5 stars (FD) – Chargers over 9.5 wins +105 – 1 star (FD)
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.75
3. Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 9.5
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 11.61
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Cincinnati, vs NY Jets (game in London) , vs Green Bay
Summary: The Broncos kicked ass last season, and the improvement that we saw was due to good free agency moves, as well as drafting well with rookie quarterback Bo Nix exceeding expectations. Solid coaching also played a part with Sean Payton. I really want to pick this Broncos team apart as I somewhat believe that this team was just very fortunate, but their Pythagorean win total states that they underachieved. This is really a head scratcher if you ask me. This Broncos team had the best EPA per play defense in the league! The offense ranked a modest 16th in EPA. I have to give them a ton of credit for that as well. So what is going on then? Well, looking a bit deeper into last year’s schedule, this team beat a bunch of tomato cans. Their last game against the Chiefs was against their third string where the broncos won 38-0. The Broncos best (real) win last year was at Tampa Bay on week 3. Otherwise, this Broncos team lost every game that they played against a team that finished .500 or better. The good news for Denver is that they still have Bo Nix on a rookie deal. They were able to go out and pay for some good playmakers, and fill in some holes. Now for some negatives. I am not a big fan of their receiving core on this team. Courtland Sutton is really the only guy to be worried about. Losing running back Javonte Williams was also a head scratcher to me as I thought that he was very good for them. Is a sophomore slump coming for quarterback Bo Nix? Nothing would surprise me with this team. If the Broncos win the division, I would not be surprised. If they take last place, I would not be surprised. In saying that, I think that the Broncos will compete for the division. I think a good strategy is to play on the Chargers, and the Broncos for the division to fade the Chiefs. Good numbers to be had.
My number: 9.81
Action – Lean over, Broncos to win AFC West +300 – .5 stars
Denver Broncos Power Rating: 1.75
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -145
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.14
Schedule: Medium – at large @ New England, vs Chicago, vs Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Antonio Pierce, S Trevon Moehrig, CB Nate Hobbs, LB Robert Spillane, LB Divine Deablo, LB K’Laveon Chaisson, S Marcus Epps, G Cody Whitehair, T Andrus Peat.
Key additions: 10% owner Tom Brady, Coach Pete Carrol, QB Geno Smith, S Jeremy Chinn, G Alex Cappa, CB Eric Stokes, OLB Elandon Roberts, CB Lonnie Johnson, RB Raheem Mostert, TE Ian Thomas, DT Leki Fotu.
Key draft picks: RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Jack Bech, CB Darien Porter, G Caleb Rogers, T Charles Grant.
Summary: Another year, another new head coach for the Raiders. This team unfortunately has transient syndrome, where the fans of other teams outnumber their own fans at their home stadium in Las Vegas. The strange thing for this Raiders team is that quarterback Geno Smith comes with his old mentor head coach Pete Carrol. As much as an upgrade this is over Aiden O’Connell, it’s still not going to get them to the dance. The Raiders were kind of a weird team last season. They would meddle in some games as they beat teams like the Ravens, and kept both Chiefs games within seven. Las Vegas almost beat the Chiefs again last season on the Friday after Thanksgiving, but there was just not enough playmakers to get the job done. Ex head coach Antonio Pearce took a ton of the blame for the locker room issues, but I also do not think that Pierce had much of a chance for success as he didn’t have any good players. During 2024, the Raiders actually had a half way decent defense ranking 14th in EPA. It was that dreadful offense that set them back ranking 31st in EPA. For 2025, we have to upgrade them some due to a proven quarterback, and a winning coach. I just don’t think that we can go overboard here. The Raiders should be more competitive, but not enough to contest for this division.
My Number: 7.58 wins
Action – Lean over
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -3
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
