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The World Golf Championship- FedEx St. Jude Invitational Preview & Picks

The U.S.A. takes home Gold in the Olympics, as Xander Schauffele wins the Olympics with a -18. Rory Sabatini took Silver with a final round of -10, to shoot a 61, and claim a medal for his adopted country of Slovakia. We have a seven man playoff for third where C.T. Pan of Taiwan would outlast the competition and take home the Bronze Medal. There is 19 golfers in the field this week who played in the Olympics, and will have to adjust to the 14 hour time difference.

We’re onto our final World Golf Classic Event of the season at TPC Southwind. The FedEx St. Jude Classic was first played in 1958 but, has been hosted at TPC Southwind’s from 1989 to 2018. During that time the World Golf Classic- NEC/Bridgestone Invitational was hosted at Firestone CC. In 2018, Bridgestone opted out of their sponsorship and in 2019, the FedEx St. Jude Classic and WGC-Bridgestone merged into the current event. So, when you see the previous winners prior to 2018, it’s for the St. Jude Classic as is was hosted at TPC Southwind’s during that time.

This is a no cut event, which means a guaranteed pay day for the players in this tournament. Because of this, it has drawn a lot of big names, including 9 of the top 10 golfers in the FedExCup Standings. In order to qualify to play in WGC Event, you need to be ranked in the top 50 golfers in the world (WGR). However, The WGC- St. Jude Invitational has a field capacity of 66, with the remaining entrants gaining eligibility based on WGR and other tournament winners. In 2020, the field capacity was increased to 78, due to the playing time missed caused by the pandemic.

Bryson Dechambeau is back after a positive COVID-19 test, which held out of the Olympics. While Jon Rahm who suffered a similar fate, is still out. Brooks Koepka, who chose to decline the invitation to the Olympics after Bryson’s forced withdraw, has had some great success here. In the two years that TPC Southwind has hosted the WGC- St. Jude Invitational, he finished 1st and T2nd. Other players that are in the field, who have had success prior here include Daniel Berger and Dustin Johnson.

Some notable withdraws are: Jon Rahm (COVID-19), Christiaan Bezuidenhout

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: August 5, 2021- August 8, 2021
  • Location: Memphis, Tennessee, United States
  • Course: TPC Southwind
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,233 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 66 Players | No Cut
  • Greens: Champion Bermuda
  • Fairways: Meyer Zoysiagrass
  • Purse: $10,500,000 / Winner $1.82 Million
  • FedEx Cup Points: 550
  • Stimpmeter: 11-12.5 feet
  • Avg. Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
  • Water Hazards: 11
  • Bunkers/ Rough: 75 bunkers/ Rough-Bermuda 2.5″
  • Stroke Average:
    • 2020: 69.554 (-0.446)
    • 2019: 69.504 (-0.496)

 

Course History:

TPC Southwind is a member of the PGA Tour’s Tournament Players Club. These courses are fairly forgiving, with the main goal of providing the average golfer a chance to play the course’s they watch on TV.

The course opened in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with former PGA Tour Pro’s Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. The course hosted it’s first PGA Tour event in 1989, the FedEx St. Jude Classic. This event was hosted at Colonial Country Club prior. The course has added over 200 yards in length since its first event and has played at roughly the same distance as it currently stands since 2005.

 

Course Guide:

TPC Southwind’s will be playing 44 yards shorter than in 2020, due to the Par-3 13th being cut back in distance. The course is a technical track with tight fairways and limited scoring opportunities. The players will have to be careful when deciding which holes to attack and when. The two-Par 5’s will offer eagle opportunities for most player’s, which are critical to take advantage of. The course also features 8 par 4’s that are between 450-500 yards. The heat will also play a factor here, just as it did in Tokyo.

 

Tournament Trends:

  • The last 9 WGC Stroke Play events have been won by Major Champions
  • The last 24 of 26 WGC Stroke Play events have been won by Major Champions
  • The last 5 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind are from the Southern United States
  • The last 4 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind were 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • The last 4 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind were inside the top 5 for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • The last 4 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind were inside the top 10 for Green in Regulation

 

In-Play/ Live Betting Angles:

Beware of the water!!! This course historically sees more balls hit in the water than any other course on the PGA Tour. If you’re live betting this week this is crucial to know, that 11 holes have water on them. I would stay away from placing any bets on these individual holes this week as things can go south (no pun intended) very quickly. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are some of the most difficult holes on the course with the highest bogey percentages. Hole #14 is a long Par 3 that consistently ranks as one of the toughest Par 3’s on the PGA Tour.

Now that you know what to avoid, one key stat to pay attention to is driving accuracy. The ability to put yourself in a good position off the tee on this course is critical. Even though this is a Par 70 course, it is probably the toughest Pat 70 on Tour. Greens in Regulation % is also another stat to pay attention to with the GIR % at TPC Southwind being 59%, as compared to the PGA Tour average of 65%.

If you’re looking to back some one Sunday or In-Play, I would recommend it being one of the more elite players. Historically this has been an event, that these players have dominated and if you can find one of them a shot or two back on Sunday at a decent price, I would do so.

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Architect: Ron Prichard (1987)

Renovation/ Re-design: 2004

Comparable Courses:

  • TPC Sawgrass
  • Innisbrook Resort
  • Sea Island Golf Course
  • Pebble Beach
  • Memorial Park

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, August 5, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM –5:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, August 6, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, August 7, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
    • CBS** – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, August 8, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
    • CBS** – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Mostly Sunny 79 F, 5 mp/h NNE, 52% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 81 F, 7 mp/h SSW, 55% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Mostly Sunny 83 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 58% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 86 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 62% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (combination of SG: OTT and SG: APP)
  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Greens in Regulation %
  • Par 4s Gained: 450-500 yards
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance

 

Average Key Stats (previous 2 winners – WGC FexEx St. Jude Invitational):

  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
    • SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 55th.
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
    • SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 54th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 1st.

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

WGC FexEx St. Jude Invitational

  • 2020: Justin Thomas, -13 (12/1)
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka, -16 (11/1)

St. Jude Classic

  • 2018: Dustin Johnson, -19 (7/1)
  • 2017: Daniel Berger, -10 (28/1)
  • 2016: Daniel Berger, -13 (33/1)
  • 2015: Fabian Gomez, -13 (400/1)
  • 2014: Ben Crane, -10 (175/1)

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Brooks Koepka (+1200) – William Hill
    • Risk: 0.65 to win 7.80 Units
  • Colin Morikawa (+1400) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.55 to win 7.70 Units
  • Scottie Scheffler (+3100) – FanDuel
    • Risk: 0.25 to win 7.75 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.45 Units

 

Picks (Top 10):

  • Patrick Cantlay (+240)
    • Risk 0.50 to win 1.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 10: 0.50 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Harris English (+145)
    • Risk 1.0 to win 1.45 Units
  • Kevin Na (+310)
    • Risk 0.50 to win 1.55 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 1.50 Units

 

Picks (Matchups):

  • Brian Harman (+100) over Jason Kokrak
    • Risk 1.0 to win 1.0 Units

Total Risk on Matchups: 1.0 Unit

 

Total Risk on The WGC- St. Jude Invitational: 4.45 Units

Year to Date (PGA): +1.63 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Georgia Bulldogs 2021 Outlook

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GEORGIA BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs led by head coach Kirby Smart come into 2021 with an outlook for a playoff appearance and possible National Championship. The Bulldogs have been really good since Kirby Smart arrived in Athens and are hopeful that the stock continues to rise.

In Smart’s sixth season, Georgia should be led by the offense, which returns seven of 11 starters. Todd Monken is entering his second season as the offensive coordinator and this time had a full spring to help get his unit ready. He also has fourth-year junior JT Daniels behind center, a guy Smart has already named as the starter. The former USC recruit, Daniels, got the Bulldogs’ offense going last season in the final four games.  UGA had just four 300-yard passing performances under Smart before Daniels did it twice in his four starts.  The running back group is stacked with experience and talent while the Bulldogs return all of its running back production, with Zamir White leading the attack. He reached the end zone 11 times a year ago and ran for a team high 779 yards from scrimmage. Wide receiver George Pickens suffered a torn ACL in spring drills and will miss most, if not all, of the 2021 season. The Pickens injury will definitely hurt the offense, however, there are other proven playmakers in the receiving corps that will help the passing game thrive. Kearis Jackson had one more receiving yard than Pickens in 2020 in the race for the team lead and was UGA’s most dynamic receiver early in the season. Jermaine Burton has talent in stretches and may be the most gifted pass-catcher on the roster. UGA also has speedster Arian Smith and a versatile group of tight ends led by the massive Darnell Washington. Additionally, LSU transfer Arik Gilbert committed to the team in early June and should receive snaps right away at receiver. The offensive line, led by Jamaree Salyer, should be a strength because it returns three starters and a ton of talented players who haven’t yet gotten their opportunity.

On defense, the Bulldogs are only returning 4 starters so DC Dan Lanning will have to get new faces acclimated to the defensive system before the week 1 matchup versus Clemson.  According to QB JT Daniels, the front seven is “absolutely elite,” and will be led by LB Nakobe Dean (led team in tackles in 2020 with 71), Azeez Ojulari and Adam Anderson (who had 8.5 and 6.5 sacks, respectively).  The question mark comes in the secondary where safeties Lewis Cine and Chris Smith are the only returning defensive backs with any meaningful experience.  They lost a pair of elite cover guys to the NFL and top CB ended up transferring to Miami. The Bulldogs did get some help as two-year starter Tykee Smith transferred in from West Virginia where he will help to add depth to the inexperienced secondary.

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TUE 8/3 MLB : Pirates at Brewers : By Alan Cashman

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Orioles Over 3.5 wins for us Monday.

1 Play added so far for Pirates at Brewers

MLB
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Kranick vs Houser

PICK: MIL -1.5 (-111) LEAN

MIL batting .458, SLG .583 vs Kranick
PIT bullpen 6.97 ERA last 10 games
MIL bullpen 2.83 ERA last 10 games
PIT has lost Kranick’s last 3 starts -1.5
MIL has won 7 of Houser’s last 8 starts -1.5
MIL has won Houser’s last 3 starts vs PIT -1.5
MIL has won 9 of last 10 vs PIT -1.5

MLB 8/3/21 Tuesday 2-Pack – Sports Betting

Indians vs Blue Jays -197 O/U 8.5

Ever do 2 bets at the same time?   Well I think there is some value here on Toronto.  Last night, we were fortunate enough to cash on the Indians at +247 but I think that today may spell disaster for this team.  Toronto’s Ace is pitching today in Hyun Jin Ryu who has a nice 3.78 FIP and a solid 1.14 WHIP.   The Indians are not exactly known for hitting lefties only ranking 25th in weighted on base percentage against the south paws.  Zach Plesac is pitching for the tribe and batters have been quite pleased to see him at the mound this year.  Zach has a 4.84 FIP and gives up 1.59 HRs per 9 innings.   Toronto has an average bullpen, and Cleveland’s is a bit above average, but you have to respect the fact that the Blue Jays are top 4 in OPS and are at home here.  I think the Blue Jays win by margin here.

Blue Jays -197  – 1.5 stars

Blue Jays -1.5 -110 – 1.5 stars

Tuesday Free Picks – Ride The Crew

Happy Tuesday fellow baseball fans. Allow myself to introduce…..myself.  Name is Shawn Knoche, Twitter handle @TheGreatKnoche.  I’m just your average guy who like to throw some bets down and hopefully make some bank. I specialize in baseball getting my background from years of playing fantasy and back when I was younger the real thing.  I’m a total number cruncher and spend way too much time early in the AM and late at night looking at data spreadheets and player values for the upcoming day. I’ll throw some football bets in also, mostly college. If you want NBA advice see Farley.

What we got tonight you ask?? Low units as line values not as good as I hoped, but here we go…

The Mariners continue the cross country road trip again tonight in Tampa. Young Luis Patino takes the bump for the Rays as they look to rebound from last nights 8-2 thumping. Patino has been decent, but not great so far in his first extended string of starts in the majors. He’s sporting a 10.23 K/9 and a 3.6K/BB ratio. (That’s pretty good) His 4.26 ERA looks to be close to in line with his other outlier stats. Possibly due for a little negative regression with his 62.9% LOB and .277 BABIP.  The Mariners pounded out 8 runs last night against Wacha, Wacha, Wacha (He’s a joke) and their offense has been clicking lately.  Last ten games they are averaging 5.8 runs per game and have only scored less than 4 once in that stretch.  I am betting on that to continue tonight and am taking the Mariners over 3.5 Runs at -116 for 1 unit.

 

The Brewers get the Pirates again tonight. So what’s that mean? Well it means bet the Brewers run line. The Brewers are 4-0 laying the run line in the last week plus vs the Pirates.  6-1 overall if you include the Braves series. They are scoring runs against bad pitching and they get more bad pitching tonight. Kranick goes for the Bucs and he’s sporting a 7.31 ERA and just gave up 10 hits and 6 runs to the Crew Wednesday. I don’t see much changing from that game, Houser hasn’t been outstanding recently for the Brewers, but against the Pirates minor league lineup I could see him throwing up another solid 5-6 Inning effort. The Crew should be up plenty when he comes out so I’m not worried about Hader having Covid. Brewers -1.5 -115 for 1 Unit.

Free “Barking Dog” Premium Pick with Analysis for Tuesday, August 3rd

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The Seattle Mariners continue their three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Tropicana Field.  The Mariners are 5-0 this season against the 1st place Rays.  Lefty Yusei Kikuchi has been impressive and makes his 20th start for the Mariners. He is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season.  Rookie righty Luis Patino is on the mound for the Rays. He is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over six starts and two relief appearances.  Patino is coming off an excellent outing as he pitched 6 innings, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday against the New York Yankees.  Both offenses have been surging of late as Seattle owns a 4th best wRC+ and Tampa owns a top 5 ISO in the past week.  However, Tampa Bay struggles versus lefties where they are only hitting .226 and own a 26th ranked wOBA on the year and the Mariners aren’t much better versus right-handers.  Seattle has enjoyed playing Tampa this season and have been better as a road team this season.  The Mariners own a top 10 batting average (.266), wOBA (.336) and wRC+ (114) on the road in the past 30 days. On the other hand, the Rays rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in wOBA (.306), strikeout rate (25.3%), batting average (.230), and have the most strikeouts (59) versus lefties at home this season.  After scoring 8 runs versus the Rays excellent pitching last night, this looks like a great spot for the M’s to make it 6 in a row with their lefty ace on the mound. Take the Mariners +145

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Rob Vinciletti: Tuesday MLB Pick and Prediction Cubs at Rockies

Tuesday Headliner- MLB Interleague Total of the Month with 100% Totals System

The MLB Comp Play is on the Colorado Rockies at 8:40 eastern. Colorado fits a nice system here tonight that plays on home favorites like the Rockies off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs that scored 2 or less runs and are taking on a team off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs. These home teams are 29-10 since 2004. Freeland for Colorado has won 3 of 4 at home While Davies for the Cubs has dropped 5 of last 6. The Cubs are 1-8 vs a lefty and 1-5 vs a losing team of late. Colorado has won 24 of 32 at home off a road trip lasting more than 6 days and have won 17 of 21 at home vs a losing team as well as 14 of 17 when favored. See us on facebook to jump on. Look for Colorado to take the opener. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports

Late MLB Addition : BY Alan Cashman

Late Add Here

MLB

Baltimore at NY Yankees 7:05
Lopez vs Heaney

PICK: BAL Over 3.5 (+125) LEAN

Orioles Team Total tonight is 3.5 vs Heaney and the Yankees
-Heaney 6.69 ERA last 7 games
-Opponents have scored 4 or more runs on 6 of last 7 starts by Heaney
-Heaney 5.27 ERA in night games
-NYY pen 5.29 ERA last 10 games
Taking Orioles Orioles Over 3.5 (+125)

MLB Picks and Predictions – August 2, 2021

Philadelphia's new starting pitcher, Ranger Suarez.

 

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Mets (-157), 2 units: The Mets are hanging onto the NL East standings by a very thin thread and now they head down to Miami for a 4 game series against their division rival and the NL East’s last placed team. It’s no secret that Miami hangs its head on their pitching talent. Despite their struggles, they’re 5th overall in collective ERA (3.55), 7th in collective FIP (3.70), 8th in BABIP (.280), and 9th in ground ball rate (44.5%)– all top 10 marks. They’re also in the top half of MLB in a slew of other defensive categories. Monday they’ll host a Mets team who needs to improve on the mound, but unfortunately they’re starting Jesus Luzardo (6.87 ERA, 5.00 xERA, 2.61 HR/9 innings over 38 innings). Luzardo is usually in a relief role and it’s likely he won’t last long today. He should have significant issues holding command against a capable Mets’ offense.

Over their last 6 games against two inconsistent offenses in Atlanta and Cincinnati, New York has allowed 36 runs; for those of you who aren’t math majors that’s 6 points given up per game. If NYM wants to hold onto first place, that brand of defense won’t do it. Insert Tylor Megill (2.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 35.1 innings). Though he’s only started 7 times this year, Megill’s numbers are impressive. His velocity is solid (94.6 mph four-seam), he boasts a 93% LOB rate, and his xERA of 2.32 tells me he’s not worth selling any time soon. The Marlins already suffer from a subpar lineup ranked in the bottom third of the league in most categories. They’re also 29th in wOBA (weighted on base average), a stat that we think reflects a team’s offense better than most of those other ancillary figures. Ergo, me thinks Megill can handle the Miami bats just fine. I’m on the Mets.

Phillies -1.5 (+140). 1 unit: If the Phillies want to contend for anything serious this year, they need more stable pitching. Their offense gets a ton of credit but the truth is they’re really just average, ranking smack dab in the middle of the majors in many important categories such as runs, RBIs, wOBA, batting average, and slugging percentage. The hope is that trade acquisition Kyle Gibson and up-and-comer Ranger Suarez (1.12 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 40.1 innings) can give their ballclub a better chance. It was announced that Suarez will continue to start for Philadelphia and that seems like a smart move. The 25 year old has a great build for a starter and boasts a homerun rate of 0.67/9 innings, 85.8% LOB rate, and a 2.69 xERA. Although he’s only served as a support pitcher thus far, Suarez has a ton of potential and appears poised for more success. The Nationals, who will start newcomer Josiah Gray Monday, gave up Schwarber, Turner, and ace Max Scherzer before the trade deadline. Now they stumble into the latter part of the season as a different team. Disappointed by bad performances following the All-Star break, it’s hard to imagine Washington competing in the postseason this year. The Phillies exploded behind Gibson yesterday, pounding the Pirates in a 15-4 win at PNC Park. While I’m sure that sort of expressed potential won’t continue on a daily basis, the Phillies have more steam and more to play for entering this contest. I’m on the Phillies by margin for a second straight day.

Rays -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Mariners’ pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 points over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it’s hard to like their chances against anyone right now. It’s even harder to like them against the Rays. Seattle’s Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn’t have the worst numbers. He’s a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he’s pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings. That’s a tad alarming. Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who’s far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha’s profile isn’t very exhilarating– his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing homeruns (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he’s due for some negative regression, but I think the Rays bats can make up for that. I’m on Tampa Bay by margin.

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Rob Vinciletti: Monday MLB “TOTAL” Domination Orioles at Yankees

Monday card has the 100% National League Game of The Year Headlining the MLB Card. Comp Totals Play below.

The MLB Comp play is on the Over 10 runs in the Baltimore at NY. Yankees game at 7:05 eastern. NY has looked good of late with the Addition of Rizzo and will likely do well here against Lopez for Baltimore who has a 6+ Era. Heaney makes his debut for the Yankees tonight but was struggling with a 5.27 Era in LA. The Orioles have flown over in 9 of 11 off a loss, 16 of 22 vs a team that just allowed 2 or less runs and 9 of 12 after allowing 5 or more runs. In the Series here 25 of 35 have gone over and that is the recommendation tonight. On Monday the Top Rated National League Play of the Year Headlines the MLB Card. Sunday card sweeps at 3-0.  See us on facebook to Jump on and start the week big in bases tonight. For the MLB Comp Play. Go Over 10 runs Baltimore vs NY. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.