The Cleveland Indians will begin a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers tonight at Progressive Field. These two teams have been heading in the opposite direction. Since May 26, the Tigers are 35-28 and the Indians are 26-33. Rooke right-hander Matt Manning will toe the rubber first for Detroit. In eight starts this year, he is 2-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season. Manning is 0-3 on the road with a horrible 8.20 ERA this season. However, he does have a better, not great, 1.39 WHIP and 5.16 xFIP, which is less than 3 runs than the inflated ERA. Additionally, he owns a 3.78 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16.2 innings pitched in the 2nd half of the season. Cleveland will start 26-year-old right-hander Cal Quantrill who is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 30 appearances this season. Quantrill is 1-0 with an impressive 1.17 ERA in 23 innings pitched since the All-Star break but he also owns a 4.91 xFIP and a very lucky .222 BABIP, so we could see some regression tonight from the righty. Detroit comes into this ballgame with a 110 wRC+ in the past 30 days, which is good enough for 9th in the league. The opposite goes for Cleveland as they own the 4th worst wRC+ during the past month. Surprisingly, the Tigers also have a top 10 offense on the road against right-handers hitting .241, 52 homeruns, .300 BABIP and 97 wRC+. The Indians offense, on the other hand, has been inconsistent at home this season ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league while producing a .234 batting average, .310 wOBA and 91 wRC+. I look for Manning to improve and Quantrill to regress tonight. Good value in Detroit. Take the Tigers +132
Happy Friday! Here are 3 free picks for today’s big MLB slate!
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White Sox/Cubs under 9 (-110), 2 units: The battle of the Windy City is on Friday as the White Sox and Cubs begin their first series of the season. I think it’ll be a pitcher’s dual. The White Sox offense has been very pedestrian lately, ranking at the bottom of MLB in every conceivable offensive category over the last 2 weeks (wOBA, batting average, slugging percentage, runs, etc.). The Cubs are the same as always– mid-tier, inconsistent, and often underwhelming behind their bats. Both teams’ aces will take the mound in what should be a slow-paced contest. Lance Lynn (2.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 108.2 innings) has been dominant this season, as the numbers indicate, and I like him even more coming off an unusually weak performance against Cleveland in his last start. Before that last showing, Lynn had a streak of 5 straight games where he permitted only 1 run or less. I expect more of that Lynn in the early game Friday. The Cubs were sellers at the trade deadline but one of their only stable pieces will be sent out today in Kyle Hendricks (3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 128.2 innings). After a bad April, Hendricks has held onto a 3.00 ERA or less in 3 straight months. Since the White Sox bats have been ice cold and Hendricks has been so consistent, I don’t see him having much issue today either. The under is 7-1-1 in the White Sox last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. I’m on the under.
Orioles first 5 (+110), 1.5 units: I love to play on the Orioles in good spots at home and this feels like another opportunity to do so. John Means (2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 88.2 innings) looked more like himself in his last start. Baltimore’s favorite pitcher has needed time to settle in after coming back from a long-term IL layoff but he showed great command at Detroit a week ago, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run over 6 innings. Following an embarrassing showing in the Bronx in 2 out of 3 games this week, which is business as usual for the O’s, this is a good spot for some redemption after a needed day off. Tampa will start Ryan Yarbrough (4.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 114 innings) Friday. In 16 starts, Yarbrough has held his opponent’s bats to 1 run or less only 7 times, a mark of 43.7%. He’s consistent in that he has maintained an ERA around that 4.80 mark in every month this season. That’s not great. The Rays have been slugging well over the last 2 weeks but their batting average and on-base-percentage is in the bottom half of the league. If Means can contain Tampa’s power bats, there’s little reason to not believe that they won’t be ahead at the halfway mark. I’m betting he can, and that they will.
Brewers (-145), 2 units: This is a much better spot for Milwaukee. The Giants survived (and cashed us a few bets) last night after a remarkable 9th inning comeback, avenging a 4-0 deficit against the lowly Diamondbacks. Their bats were ICE cold before those final innings. Now San Francisco has to turn around the next day and hit the road to face the surging Brewers; that ain’t ideal. Milwaukee has won 9 of their last 12 games and their offense is performing really well over the last 2 weeks, ranked in the top 10 in nearly every category (runs, RBIs, wOBA, batting average, etc.). They’re also starting their ace in Corbin Burnes (6-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 73 innings) tonight. This is another situation where a great pitcher should experience positive regression. Burnes allowed a very rare 5 runs to the Braves in his last start, which is only the second time he’s allowed that many points all season. Before that disappointing performance, Burnes permitted 1 run or less in 5 straight starts. Burnes has a sensational 1.89 xERA and 1.49 FIP and I think he could put on a show tonight. Logan Webb (3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 73 innings) is a serviceable and frequently exceptional pitcher that adds to a fantastic San Francisco rotation. Still, his marks are substantially lower than Burnes and the Brewers’ bats have showed no sign of slowing down. The Brew-crew had a day off before this contest, they’re at home, and they’re 24-6 in their last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take Milwaukee.
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We have a great show for you today! Doug Upstone from Docssports.com comes back to break down some NFL previews as well as some futures, and season win totals! First, Kiev discusses some nice improvements that we are implementing for TheOddsBreakers.com. Then, Doug comes on and the guys get right into the Aaron Rogers saga and if it really means anything to sports wagering. Next, Doug and Kiev pick some teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year and could make the playoffs this year as well as vica versa. Then, the guys get right into the divisions with some predictions on who will go over or under their win totals as well as some future plays. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 265 with a few plays for your Saturday night fever!
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The Mid-Summer Derby is finally here at Saratoga. We have an absolutely loaded field with two heavy morning line favorites in Knicks Go and Maxfield. Before the Whitney we have the Longines Test Stakes and the Saratoga Derby Invitational. The weather looks great so it should be another great day of racing at the Spaaaa. All races can be seen on FS2 “Saratoga Live” from 1:00 pm to 7:00 pm ET.
Longines Test Stakes
One of the top races for 3-year-old filles, that is run at Saratoga every year.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: I
Race: 8
Post Time: 4:34 PM ET
Length: 7 Furlongs
Purse: $500,000
Division: Fillies | 3 Year Olds
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Late Pick 5 (0.50) Races (8-12), Double
Field:
Illumination (John Velazquez), 12-1
Souper Sensational (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 6-1
Zaajel (Joel Rosario), 8-1
Obligatory (Jose Ortiz), 4-1
Always Carina (Flavien Prat), 3-1
Make Mischief (Tyler Gaffalione), 12-1
Search Results (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 5-2
Bella Sofia (Luis Saez), 6-1
Horse Preview:
ILLUMINATION comes into the Test Stakes off a win in a MSW back in June. In her five career starts, this was her first win running her best speed figure of 105.
SOUPER SENSATIONAL also comes into this race off a win in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes last month. She’s tried her hand at three G2 Stakes Races this year but has failed to find the winners circle in any of them.
ZAAJEL has won two our of her four races this year, moving her career record to 5-3-0-0. She won the G3 Forward Gal Stakes back in January and the G2 Mother Goose Stakes in her last outing. In that rest she bested fellow entrants ALWAYS CARINA (2nd) and MAKE MISCHIEF (4th).
OBILGATORY enters this race fresh off a second place finish to SEARCH RESULTS in the G1 Acorn Stakes. In the race prior she ran a 105 speed figure to capture the G2 Eight Belles Stakes.
ALWAYS CARINA has only three races under her belt but has been successful in all of them. She won her first two races (AOC, MSW) and stepped in class her last race to run second to ZAAJEL is the G2 Mother Goose Stakes.
MAKE MISCHEIF has raced seven times this year with her most recent race coming back on June 26th where she finished fourth out of a five horse field in the G2 Mother Goose. Prior to that she ran third in the G1 Acorn where she was bested by fellow entrant OBLIGATORY and SEARCH RESULTS.
SEARCH RESULTS has won four out of her five races this year. She won the G1 Acorn Stakes and the G3 Gazelle Stakes and took second in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. She has the most class out of the field and is the morning line favorite for a reason.
BELLA SOFIA also has an impressive record this year winning two out of her three starts. The only Stakes race she entered this year was the Jersey Girl Stakes where she ran second. This race will be a step up in class for her but, she does have the speed to compete.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Illumination, Zaajel, Always Carina, Bella Sofia
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Souper Sensational, Make Mischief, Search Results
Closer: Obligatory
Picks:
WIN: (7) SEARCH RESULTS
Saratoga Derby Invitational
The Saratoga Derby Invitational was inaugurated in 2019 and is part of the Turf Trinity Series. The Turf Trinity Series is the turf counterpart to the dirt Triple Crown. There is three races that are run at matching distances with $1,000,000 in purse for every race. The Saratoga Derby Invitational is the turf counterpart to the Preakness, and serves as the series middle jewel. It is also the only race in the Series to not take place at Belmont with the other two being the Belmont Derby and the Jockey Club Derby. This year, the Saratoga Derby Invitational was upgraded to a Grade I status.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: I
Race: 9
Post Time: 5:10 PM ET
Length: 1 3/16 Miles (9.5 Furlongs)
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Open | 3 Year Olds
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Double Wagers
Field:
Soldier Rising (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 12-1
Du Jour (Joel Rosario), 8-1
Palazzi (Tyler Gaffalione), 20-1
Cadillac (Shane Foley), 4-1
Yes This Time (Luis Saez), 15-1
Bolshoi Ballet (Ryan L Moore), 2-1
Secret Protector (Mike E Smith), 6-1
Cellist (Julien R Leparoux), 12-1
State of Rest (John R Velazquez), 10-1
Flashiest (Jose Lezcano), 20-1
King Fury (Jose Ortiz), 10-1
Horse Preview:
DU JOUR finished fourth in the G1 Belmont Stakes his last time out. Prior to that race, he won the G2 American Turf Stakes.
CADILLAC only has one race under his belt this year and that was across the pond in Ireland where he won the ARM Holding International Stakes. He was shipped to the US last year to run the BC Juvenile Turf but finished fourth.
BOLSHOI BALLET enters this race the morning line favorite winning three of his four starts this year. He was shipped in from Ireland to run in the G1 Belmont Derby Invitational where he won.
SECRET PROTECTOR has raced in the UK all of his career but will try his luck in the States in this race. In his last outing he took third in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot.
KING FURY started the year strong with a win the G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. He followed that performance up with a second place finish in the G3 Ohio Derby. One thing to note, is that this will be his first race on the Turf in his career.
Picks:
WIN: (4) CADILLAC
EXACTA: 4/ 2, 6, 11
Whitney Stakes
The Whitney Stakes was first run in 1928 where it was run at a distance of a 1 1/4 Miles until 1940. The event is named after the Whitney family whose members have been prominent supporters of the sport at Saratoga. In 2007 the Breeders Cup Ltd., introduced the Breeders Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” qualification format. This means that the winner of The Whitney will automatically qualify for the Breeder’s Cup Classic.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
BY MY STANDARDS finished second to SILVER STATE in the G1 Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap his last start. In his only other start this year, he won the Oaklawn Mile Stakes. He’s a G1 Whitney veteran, racing last year and finishing second.
SILVER STATE has four starts this year and has won every one. He bested BY MY STANDARDS in the G1 Hill ‘N’ Dale Handicap his last time out. Prior to that race, he won the G2 Oaklawn Handicap running a 113 speed figure.
SWISS SKYDIVER most known for his G1 Preakness Stakes victory back in 2020 enters this race off a third place finish in the G3 Apple Blossom Handicap. He had some success in his only other start this year winning the G1 Beholder Mile Stakes.
KNICKS GO won the G3 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap his last time out. Prior to that he finished fourth in the G1 Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap but was coming off a long layoff after running the G1 Saudi Cup. Before the G1 Saudi Cup, where he ran fourth he won two G1 Stakes (Pegasus World Cup and the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile).
MAXFIELD seems to be in form, winning three out of the four Stakes races he’s entered this year. He won the G2 Stephen Foster Stakes and the G2 Alysheba Stakes his last two starts. Prior to that, he finished third in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap and first in the G3 Mineshaft Stakes.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Knicks Go
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Swiss Skydiver, Silver State
Closer: Maxfield, By My Standards
Picks:
WIN: (2) SILVER STATE
EXACTA: 2 / ALL
Best of luck, and if you enjoy the writeup you can follow me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Jan 2, 2021; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; A pair of Texas A&M Aggies helmets on the field after the the Texas A&M Aggies defeated the North Carolina Tar Heels at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
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Jimbo Fisher comes into his 4th year as the Aggies head coach and expectations are high after just missing the playoffs a year ago. They finished the season winning the Orange Bowl and ranked 4th in the final Associated Press poll, which was the highest ranking since they won the national title in 1939. Aggies are already looking forward to October 9th, when the Crimson Tide come to Kyle Field in which should be the College Gameday site for that week. Fisher will have to remind his players that there are 5 games before powerhouse Alabama comes to town. Nine starters are back from the SEC’s top unit and the skill position players who accounted for 88% of A&M’s touchdowns last season also return. However, the Aggies will have to replace quarterback Kellen Mond, four members of the offensive line and a couple of defensive stars.
The offense will be led by All-SEC running back Isaiah Spiller who rushed for 1,036 yards in 10 games last season. He will also be sharing come carries with the Orange Bowl MVP, speedster Devon Achane. In addition to what might be the best RB combo in the nation, the entire receiving corps returns being led by Junior Ainias Smith while leading the Aggies last season with 43 catches, 932 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns while tight end Jalen Wydermyer will be a strong threat across the middle. The quarterback position looks to be up for grabs while freshman Haynes King appears to have the edge over sophomore Zach Calzada. If replacing the quarterback isn’t a big enough concern, A&M has to replace all but one offensive lineman. All- American guard Kenyon Green will move from guard to left tackle and Tennessee transfer Jahmir Johnson should take over the right tackle spot. The task shouldn’t be as difficult for the Aggies as other teams as they have had a top 10 recruiting class each of the past 3 years. How well they mesh will determine how far this team goes and they do have a favorable first 3 games to get it together before starting SEC play.
While the offense could take some retooling, the defense is set to dominate and will keep the Aggies in every single game this season. This side of the ball is loaded after 4 seniors from last season took advantage of the pandemic bonus year and returned.
Despite the departure of All-SEC tackle Bobby Brown III, A&M’s defensive front looks to be just as good as, if not better, a year ago. That’s saying a lot after the Aggies proved to be the #2 rushing defense in the nation and are going to be led by DT Jayden Peevy and Tyree Johnson. Aaron Hansford looks to lead a solid linebackers crew after finishing the 2020 season with 49 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 interception and 1 touchdown. The secondary will also be in excellent shape this season as all five starters are back. This defense is also very deep as nine, yes nine, different defenders had an interception last season.
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Another week, another grind in MLB betting. Still winning more than we lose but damn, baseball can be frustrating. Thank God Atlanta pulled it out last night! After a week away in 100 degree temperatures hiking in good ol’ Utah, it’s good to be back home in my routine and writing these articles for you all. Onto my picks for Thursday!
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Mets/Marlins over 8 (-110), 1.5 units: The Mets and Marlins haven’t been exploding lately on offense, which is probably why this total is so low, but this feels like a good spot for more points. The Mets will start struggling Rich Hill (4.10 ERA, 4.52 xERA over 105.1 innings) and the Marlins will start newcomer Braxton Garrett (4.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP over 22.2 innings), whose 6.88 xERA doesn’t exactly make us believers. Expect a lot of hits today and two teams whose bats are due for positive regression.
Cubs/Rockies over 11.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is virtually the same exact situation as above AND it’s at Coors Field. Behind two bad starting pitchers in their first game of this series, the Cubs and Rockies combined for 19 points. I think this game will look very similar. Jake Arrieta (5-10, 6.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 78.1 innings) is only getting more exposed as the season trudges on. He’s allowed 23 runs over his last 5 starts. Shockingly, that happened over just 14.4 innings. That’s really bad and I’m not sure what else to say about it. The words “fade candidate” come to mind. Antonio Senzatela (4.58 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 94.1 innings) has allowed over 3 runs in his last 5 starts and 3 of those contests were on the road. At home he may see even less success. The over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. It’s another over bet for this guy.
Giants win (-160), 2 units: San Francisco is starting to heat up. Winners of 7 of their last 10 games and closing out this series tonight before a tough road matchup against the Brewers, this may not be the most ideal spot for the Giants but, again, I’m betting that they take advantage of a game they should win as they look to hold their top-spot in the NL West. They’re now 3.5 games ahead of the Dodgers and LAD has a few tough series ahead against their Los Angeles rival and the re-charged Phillies. Alex Wood (3.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 98.2 innings) will get the nod Thursday and while he has a hiccup here and there, he’s mostly very dependable. A rough stretch in June hurt his numbers but in 12 of his 18 starts, he only permitted 2 runs or less. He shouldn’t have many issues today. Merrill Kelly (4.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 129.1 innings) will start for the Diamondbacks at home tonight. Kelly has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 home starts and his LOB rate (68.1%) and HR allowance (1.11/9 innings) is starting to devolve. The Giants are 37-15 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter– I’ll take the away team.
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Thursday The NFLX Hall of Fame Game Opening week System Play is up along with our Soccer Play of the Olympics in the Womens Gold Medal game. There is also MLB. Comp Play below
The MLB comp play for Thursday is on the Under in the Pittsburgh at Cincy Game at 7:10 eastern. The game fits a nice totals system that is 10 of 11 under since 2004 for home favorites of 200 or more like the Reds that are off a 1 run home favored win scoring 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs. The Pirates have gone under 3 of the last 4 in game 1 of a series and the last 4 vs a team that just scored 5 or more runs. Crowe pitching for the Pirates have been decent in his last 2 starts allowing 2 runs in 11 innings. Gray for the Reds has struggled in his last few starts but gets a home start here against a losing team. Look for this game to stay under. On Thursday a Powerful card is up and backed with the NFL Hall of Fame Game Opening week System Play, an MLB Power Card and the Soccer Play of the Olympics in the Womens Gold Medal game. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Play the Pirates and Reds Under the total Rob – GC Sports
No Barking Dogs today but I do have 2 free premium picks to give out! We are 20-12 in our last 32 plays including winners of our last 5! Barking dogs are now 8-2 so far!
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The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers conclude a two-game series when they meet tonight at Dodger Stadium. Astros right-hander, Jake Odorizzi, will be making his 14th start and comes in with a 4.30 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 60 2/3 innings pitched. He has struggled lately allowing 10 earned runs with 4 homeruns across 13 2/3 innings pitched over his last three starts. Odorizzi has a 3.97 ERA on the road this season but has been helped by a .212 BABIP in those outings. Recently traded veteran righty Max Scherzer will be making his first start for his new team after being shipped out by Washington at the deadline. This will be his 20th start and he currently owns 2.76 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP across 111 innings pitched. The Astros are bringing in some hot bats hitting .283, owning a .364 wOBA and 138 wRC+ (all top 3 stats) over the past week. While LA hasn’t been as hot, they still rank 11th in wOBA in the past week and rank in the top 5 in hits, homeruns, runs, SLG and wRC+ in the past month. Both offenses present tough matchups for right-handed pitching as the Astros are 1st in wRC+ and the Dodgers aren’t far behind at 3rd in that stat. The total has gone over in each of Odorizzi’s last three starts, 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games overall and 4-2 in the last six Dodger games. Take Over 8.5 runs
The Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers will play game 3 of their 4-game set tonight at Globe Life Field. Potential MVP righty Shohei Ohtani gets the nod for the Angels. He is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. On paper it looks like Ohtani hasn’t pitched great on the road this season because of his 5.16 ERA. Let’s look closer. He has very similar home/away splits in WHIP (1.11 home vs 1.15 away and almost identical xFIP (3.65 home vs 3.66 away), so I anticipate that his 5.16 ERA is inflated and will decrease over the last half of the season. Lefty Kolby Allard will hone the mound for the Rangers. He is 2-9 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Allard owns a 1.09 WHIP and 4.18 xFIP at home this season. Now lets dig into these struggling offenses. The one thing the Angels have going for them in this matchup is that they hit lefties well ranking in the upper 3rd of the league in wOBA this season. Saying that, both of these ballclubs rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in wOBA and wRC+ in the past 30 days including the past week as well. Texas has averaged 3.85 runs per game this season while the Angels are scoring only 4.12 on the road this year. Additionally, Los Angeles is only hitting .230 on the road and Texas has only been hitting .214 at home in the past 14 days. Take Under 8.
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Hump Day Power Card has a Rare 6* 100% MLB Power System along with a 62-5 System Side and the MLS Soccer Game of the Week. MLS Total below.
On Wednesday At 8:00 eastern the MLS comp play is on the OVER 2.5 Goals in the Cincinnatti at NY. Red Bulls game at 8:00 eastern. NY is off a wild 3-2 loss last out while Cincy played a goal leas draw. This one should see both teams find the back of the net at least once. NY has 4 wins in the 7 meetings between the 2 clubs and while they probably get the win. We see two teams that are ranked 9th and 11th in the table and struggle defensively. Look for this game to play over 2.5 tonight. On Wednesday a top level MLB Card is up and backed with a rare 6* MLB and an additional play from a 62-3 System. In Soccer we have our Side Play of the week. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out tonight. For the MLS Play. Go Over the total NY vs Cincy. Rob V- GC Sports
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back to discuss fantasy football positional rankings. We go over each position group with the top players ranked as well as who could be the sleepers and who could certainly bust for the 2021 Fantasy Football season.
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In addition to what might be the best RB combo in the nation, the entire receiving corps returns being led by Junior Ainias Smith while leading the Aggies last season with 43 catches, 932 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns while tight end Jalen Wydermyer will be a strong threat across the middle. The quarterback position looks to be up for grabs while freshman Haynes King appears to have the edge over sophomore Zach Calzada. If replacing the quarterback isn’t a big enough concern, A&M has to replace all but one offensive lineman. All- American guard Kenyon Green will move from guard to left tackle and Tennessee transfer Jahmir Johnson should take over the right tackle spot. The task shouldn’t be as difficult for the Aggies as other teams as they have had a top 10 recruiting class each of the past 3 years. How well they mesh will determine how far this team goes and they do have a favorable first 3 games to get it together before starting SEC play.
