Right at the trade deadline here and both of these teams are trying to compete yet holding steady thus far. One person who has really been holding steady is Brewers pitcher Corbin Burns. Corbin is burning through Cy Young contenders at an amazing 2.12 ERA and a 1.35 FIP. He hasn’t allowed over 3 earned runs since June 18th and he actually hasn’t allowed over 4 this whole year. This is one pitcher that didn’t regress since the foreign substance rules enforcement over the last 6 – 8 weeks. The Crew has a decent bullpen raning 18th in FIP. The Braves are a decent hitting team around the middle of the pack ranking 15th in wRC+. Touki Toussaint is taking the helm today for the Braves. This pitcher had some hype to him before the season started until his shoulder injury. Touki has pitched 2 games thus far vs the Padres and the Phillies boasting a very nice FIP at 2.57. The Braves bullpen is 12th in FIP while the Brewers are still looked at as a struggling team hitting the ball ranking 21st in wRC+ and we also have to remember that their best player in Yelich has Covid. All this tells me is that the under is certainly a good look today. Maybe Toussaint does pitch well today, maybe he doesn’t but I do not see Atlanta hitting vs Burns.
We have a loaded slate of Stakes racing at The Spa on Saturday. The Jim Dandy headlines the schedule with some of the best 3 year old’s prepping for the G1 Travers Stakes. The Travers aka the “Midsummer Derby” will take place later in the Saratoga meet (August 28th). In addition to the G2 Jim Dandy we also have the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes and the G2 Bowling Green Stakes. All races can be seen on FS2 “Saratoga Live” from 1:00 pm to 7:00 pm ET.
G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes
The inaugural running of this event took place in 1985 as the A Phenomenon Stakes. It was originally named after the winner of the 1983 Jim Dandy Stakes, A Phenomenon. In 1990 the event was upgraded to a G3 Stakes, and then a G2 in 1995. In 2000, the event was renamed to honor Alfred G Vanderbilt who served as Chairman of the Board to the NYRA from 1971 to 1975. In 2010, the event was upgraded to a G1 Stakes. D. Wayne Lucas, H. Allen Jerkens, Steve Asmussen all share the record for the most wins by a Trainer with 3. Pat Day and Javier Castellano share the record for most wins by a Jockey with 4.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: I
Race: 8
Post Time: 5:03 PM ET
Length: 6 Furlongs
Purse: $350,000
Division: Open | 3 Year Old & Up
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Pick 4 (.50) Races (8-11), Double Wagers
Field:
Lexitonian (Jose Lezcano), 20-1
Mischevious Alex (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 2-1
Firenze Fire (Jose Ortiz), 3-1
Strike Power (Tyler Gaffalione), 15-1
Three Technique (Manuel Franco), 15-1
Whitmore (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 4-1
Miles Ahead (Luis Saez), 12-1
Montauk Traffic (Eric Cancel), 15-1
Special Reserve (Joel Rosario), 9-2
Horse Preview:
WHITMORE, the ageless 8 year old gelding, is 0-3 this year but has been close in those starts. He was third in a three horse photo in the GI Churchill Downs Stakes and second on the G3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. Ricardo Santana Jr will get the mount on WHITMORE who has ridden him 17 times out of his 41 career starts. WHITMORE won his last G1 Stakes in 2020 when he captured the G1 Breeder’s Cup Sprint. He raced last year the G2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt and took second.
MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, is a 4 year old colt who has been in the money in both G1 Stakes races he’s took place in this year. He won the G1 Carter Handicap at Aqueduct and took third in his last race, the G1 Metropolitan. His last race was the only race he failed to win in his four starts in 2021.
FIRENZE FIRE, is a 6 year old horse, who also doesn’t seem to be slowing down with age. This will be his first G1 Stakes this year but has captured a win in the G2 True North and G3 Runhappy. In last race, he took second in the G2 John A Nerud Stakes losing to MIND CONTROL. He hasn’t lost his past three races at 6 -6 1/2 furlongs, so we’ll see if he can continue that trend here.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Firenze Fire, Strike Power, Mischevious Alex, Special Reserve
Off the Pace: Lexitonian, Miles Ahead, Three Technique
Closer(s): Whitmore, Montauk Traffic
Picks:
WIN: (6) WHITMORE
EXACTA: 6 / 1, 2, 3
He’s 0-3. this year but has ran great in all three of those races. With Santana on the mount, I think he get’s his first win of the year.
G2 Jim Dandy Stakes
The G2 Jim Dandy is the traditional prep race for the G1 Travers Stakes. This race has been held annually at Saratoga since 1964. Prior to 1971, this race was run at a distance of a mile. The race is named in honor of the three year old colt, Jim Dandy who won the 1930 Travers Stakes at the odds of 100-1 beating Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox. Todd Pletcher has the most wins by a Trainer with 6 (2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2013). Eddie Maple, Jerry Bailey, and John Velazquez share the record for most wins by a Jockey with 4.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
ESSENTIAL QUALITY enters the G2 Jim Dandy fresh off a win in the G1 Belmont Stakes. He rebounded in that race after a sub-par performance in the G1 Kentucky Derby. Prior to the Kentucky Derby he was undefeated winning his last five. He’s the most decorated horse in this field with three Grade I wins to his name.
WEYBURN is in a bit of a rut failing to find he winner’s circle in his past two races. He lost to MANDALOUN is the G1 Pegasus in his last out. Earlier this year he won the G3 Gontham Stakes at Aqueduct going off at 20-1.
KEEPMEINMIND off a bit of a layoff in her last race the G3 Ohio Derby took third to fellow entrant MASQUEPARADE who won. His last win came back in November of 2020 in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs.
RISK TAKING is coming into this race off a bit of a layoff with his last race coming back in May. That race was the G1 Preakness Stakes where he would finish eighth. He’s struggled in the G1 and G2 Stakes he’s competed in but won the G3 Withers earlier this year.
MASQUEPARADE enters the G2 Jim Dandy on a heater winning his last three starts. His most recent race was the G3 Ohio Derby where he bested fellow entrant KEEPMEINMIND. This will be his first G1 Stakes race so we’ll see how he handles the step up in class.
DR JACK‘s last out was the G1 Pegasus where he finished third. In that race where MANDALOUN won, fellow entrant WEYBURN took second.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Masqueparade, Weyburn, Dr Jack
Off the Pace: Essential Quality, Risk Taking
Closer(s): Keepmeinmind
Picks:
WIN: (3) WEYBURN
EXACTA: 2, 3, 4 / 5
In this race I’m going to try and beat the heavy favorite in Essential Quality. Weyburn has early speed that can press the pace and possibly hold off a late bid from Essential Quality.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
It’s that time again folks! Football is near and many people will be depositing money into their local sportsbooks to begin their NFL and college football betting season! Since PASPA was reprieved, more and more sports books are looking to get your dollar and make their own bet that you will not be profitable. The competition for your dollar is so great, that these books offer large free deposit incentives to attract your business. Some incentives are just money where you have to roll your deposit over 10 to 20 times before you are allotted a payout, which can be very time consuming, and some books just give you a free bet deposit bonus to give you a chance to start your season ahead in the black. Now as we all know with sports, no bet is guaranteed and we do not have to look back very far for that when just last season the New York Jets beat the LA Rams in LA on week 15 as a +17 point dog. No bet is completely safe in this business, so it’s better to make sure that you retain some money rather than chance it all on one shot. Do you like guarantees? I like guarantees and the way that I look at it is that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Here is how we are going to guarantee a payout from a free bet.
The average deposit bonus that sports books give out are about $500 with a $1000+ deposit so I am going to use that number, but please feel free to plug in your own numbers respectfully. Instead of making one single bet with that $500, the best way to do it is by staggering a parlay. A staggered parley means that you bet two teams in your parlay that play at two different times, for example you could bet the Bears game on Sunday at 1PM ET with the Giants game on Monday night. We are going to use the normal -110 juice in our calculations being that most football betting lines are going to be at or close to these numbers. After the parlay bet has been made, we then must bet or “hedge” the other side at the -110 juice in order to guarantee a profit. If your hedge loses, then you have to bet even more money on the opposite side in the second game to cover your first hedge and also make the same profit. How do I know how much to bet you ask? Well, guessing unfortunately is a more difficult option because you could go into negative maximized value quite easily and blowing your own money in order to cover your free parlay isn’t fun. This is why we have an equation to help us which is called the maximum profit equation. X + Y + Z = your total payout.
A -110 juiced two team parlay pays at 2.64X so for that $500 the payout would be approximately $1320.00. In this equation, the X and Y are the variables that relate to each other, and the Z is your total of the two variables with respect to the rate (which we know as -110 or 1.1). For us, the Z is your second bet (If needed since your first leg of the parlay could lose), the X is your first bet and Y is your guaranteed profit. Being that we are solving for Y to find a maximum guaranteed profit, I am going to transpose it as your total payout of 1320.00 – Z – X = Y since we are solving for Y to find our maximized profit. Now we know that Y is just the result of what you are betting for X over the juice of -110 or 1.1 for math purposes (because it is the most that you can make without sacrificing chance) and Z is basically (X + Y) times your rate of 1.1 in order to get your second bet. (X+Y)1.1 as stated.
$1320 – Z – X = Y
Y = X/1.1
Z = (X + Y)1.1
After seeing what Y and Z are we can simply input those expressions into our equation as $1320 – (X + X/1.1)1.1 – X = X/1.1 in order to simplify. Doing the algebra, we have $1320 – 2.1X – X = X/1.1 and for the next step we multiply the 1.1 on both sides and get $1452 – 3.41X = X. When we solve for that, we get $1452 = 4.41X and then X ends up equaling $329.25. This is the amount of your first bet at -110 to get your maximized profit $299.32. This is how much you will make no matter what happens! $299.32 is your GUARANTEED profit. The equation looks like $1320 – $691.42 – $329.26 = $299.32.
In summary, if your first hedge (bet) of $329.32 wins, you will get paid $299.32 while your parlay loses. If your first hedge wins, then you must bet $691.42 to get paid $628.56 and minus out your first bet of $329.26, and you get about $299.30 (it would be $299.32 if we used all of the decimals and didn’t round). Finally, if you lose both hedges of $691.42 and $329.26, you then have won your $500 parlay and got paid $1320.00. Minus out the losing hedge best $1320 – $691.42 – $329.26 and you get $299.32. So there you have it. You can guarantee $299.32 cents based on playing it smart by using a staggered parlay. Should you have any questions, please feel free to tweet me @TheOddsbreakers or @OBKiev. Have a wonderful betting season and best of luck this year!
We start the day with a no sweat winner as the Rays +114 crush Cole and the Yankees 14-0. That makes us 15-12 since the All-Star break and 8-4 in our last 12 MLB plays, including our “Barking Dog” plays (which are 5-1)
DUNEDIN, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 27: Hyun-Jin Ryu #99 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at TD Ballpark on February 27, 2020 in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox close out a four-game series tonight at Fenway Park. Veteran ace lefty Hyun Jin Ryu gets the nod for the Blue Jays. He is 9-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 110 IP over 19 starts. The Toronto lefty has fared well against Boston batters in the past recording an aggregate .627 OPS allowed. While Boston is loaded with quality right-handed bats Ryu is one southpaw who excels against batters of the opposite hand allowing a career .664 OPS. The Red Sox will counter with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who is 7-5 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 96 1/3 IP over 19 starts. Both Toronto and Boston have been potent on offense all season but the Blue Jays offense has been even better out of the break owning the best ISO and 3rd best wOBA and wRC+ in the past 2 weeks. However, the edge in this one will be decided on whichever bullpen can limit the opposition the most. Saying that, Boston’s pen is due to regress as they have posted a .273 BABIP in the past 30 days compared to the Blue Jays .301 batting average on balls in play. We’re riding Ryu and the hotter bats in this one. Take the Blue Jays +110
Thursday Card has the A.L. West 100% Total of the Month and a 5* Gold Cup Semifinals play. MLB Comp below.
The MLB Comp Play is is on the Under 10 runs in the Baltimore at Detroit game at 7:10 eastern These two have played under in 7 of the last 8 meetings. Home favorites like Detroit that scored 10 or more runs in a road dog win are 12 of 14 under if the total is 8 or higher, and the opponent scored 5 or more runs as a home favorite like Baltimore. The Orioles have gone under in 4 of 5 vs losing teams. They have Wells going on 8 days rest and he was decent in a start vs the Rays last week. Detroit counters with Mize who has heated up and allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Based on the System and the Stat Indicators. Look for this game to stay Under. On Thursday the A.L. West TOTAL of the Month with a 100% System Headlines along with a 5* Gold Cup Semifinal Power Play. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Go Under in the Orioles and Tigers game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
After a bad Tuesday (who likes Tuesday any way? No one) we got a nice bounce back Wednesday, going 2-1 overall (and it really should have been 3-0; thanks for the late game flops, Miami). Onto a shorter card Thursday:
Yankees (-124), 2 units: This is actually a really great price on Gerrit Cole (2.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 125 innings) and the Yankees today, therefore my hand is forced! Cole has had some bad moments in big spots this year, including another lackluster game against the Red Sox last time out, but overall he still owns one of the most commanding profiles in baseball. His WHIP ranks 7th in the majors and he still has more strikeouts than any other thrower. Today he’ll rival Luis Patino (5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 25.2 innings), the nice and green 21 year old who the Rays see a ton of potential in, but who also sacrificed 5 hits and 4 runs over 5.1 innings last time to Cleveland. The Yankees’ bats haven’t always performed well this year but it’s still a very intimidating group of hitters. That’s especially true if they finally allow Aaron Judge to stay in the lineup. I expect the Yankees, who need to start winning if they want to stay in the AL East race, to show-out on offense and win in a highly lopsided pitching matchup.
White Sox (-180), 1.8 units: I hate to not be as detailed here but this is basically the same handicap as above. Chicago is starting their ace Carlos Rodon (2.24 ERA, 0.92 WHIP over 100.2 innings) against Carlos Hernandez (6.04 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 28.1 innings), KC’s 24 year old up and comer who’s had his struggles since getting the opportunity to start. The team with the more offensive prowess and considerably better pitcher is getting a price that I’m not too proud to pay– I’ll take the White Sox to win a unit.
Nationals/Phillies Game 2 over 8.5 (-115), 1.5 units: These are two teams heading in opposite directions and when one team is on the decline like the Nationals, that usually means you’ll see regression more from their defense. Personally I thought the Nationals would come out on fire after their break– their schedule is certainly favorable, but after dropping all 3 games to the Orioles and now tying up their latest series with Philly, it doesn’t appear they have the gusto or consistency to hang. I’m betting that they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline. Either way, the Nationals still have the offensive prowess to produce plenty of runs, as we saw 2 nights ago, and game 2’s pitching matchup isn’t one for either team to fear. Sometimes it’s more about offense and it’s more about the spot– I see plenty of subpar pitches and big slugs in this contest.
We have a massive show for you today. We are loaded with some season win total plays that you could put in the bank for end of this year! NFL insider and college football broadcaster Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL comes back to discuss NFL season win totals. But that’s not all!!! Adam Burke @SkatingTripods formally from Bang the Book comes on to discuss some college football season win totals and Vegas Matty @FootballContest and footballcontest.com is here to discuss the huge NFL and college Las Vegas football contests to compete to be the best of the best for the 2021 season! At the end of the show, Kiev gives out a free UFC play for the weekend for UFC Vegas 33 Hall vs Strickland. We go long on this pod so feel free to listen in segments.
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The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles play the finale of a two-game interleague set Wednesday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Right-hander Jordan Holloway will get the start/open for the Marlins. He is 2-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 33 2/3 innings across 3 starts and 9 relief appearances. Holloway has averaged just over 3 innings pitched in his last 3 starts and owns a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 13 innings pitched in July. Orioles will counter with righty Jorge Lopez as he gets the nod in this one. Lopez is 2-12 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 94 IP across 20 starts. Saying Miami and Baltimore have been below average offenses this season is an understatement. However, the Marlins rank 4th in the league in hits and has scored 37 runs against righties since the break and leads the league in batting average versus right-handed pitching in the past week. The O’s have the worst wOBA this season versus right-handers and also have a bullpen that ranks 21st in WHIP (1.38), 25th ERA (4.87) and 22nd opponent batting average (.244). The edge in this one is the Marlins bullpen who will be entering the game, most likely, in the 3rd or 4th inning. Miami’s pen has been excellent all year posting a 3rd best 1.18 WHIP, 8th best .222 opponent batting average, 4th best 3.43 ERA and have held opponents to the 2nd least amount of longballs this season (32). Take the Marlins +103
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We are 14-9 since the All-Star break and 7-1 in our last 8 MLB plays, including our “Barking Dog” plays (which are a perfect 5-0). I will be posting one “Barking Dog” pick this afternoon! Stay tuned!
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With first pitch scheduled for 4:15 ET, The Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres close out a two-game interleague series Wednesday at Petco Park. Lefty Sean Manaea will hone the mound for the Athletics. Through 20 starts this season, he is 7-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 116 2/3 IP. Manaea is coming off a tremendous July 22 start at the Seattle Mariners fanning a season-high 13 batters while allowing 1 run on 3 hits over 7 IP. Manaea has been excellent in road starts posting a 2.94 ERA, 3.07 xFIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. Left-hander Blake Snell gets the start for the Friers. He is 4-3 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 80 1/3 IP spanning 18 starts. Snell is pitching at home for the first time since June 22 where he owns a 1.43 ERA, 2.74 xFIP and 1.04 WHIP over seven starts and 37 2/3 IP at Petco Park this season. Oakland and San Diego bats have cooled off over the past week ranking 18th and 22nd in the league in wOBA. On the season, both ball clubs rank in the bottom half of the league verses left-handing pitching in batting average, SLG, OPS, and wOBA so there’s a lot to like about Manaea and Snell’s home/road splits in this one. Additionally, the bullpens have been strong all year and continue to thrive ranking in the top 10 in ERA and WHIP this season. Take Under 8 runs
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Being that we are solving for Y to find a maximum guaranteed profit, I am going to transpose it as your total payout of 1320.00 – Z – X = Y since we are solving for Y to find our maximized profit. Now we know that Y is just the result of what you are betting for X over the juice of -110 or 1.1 for math purposes (because it is the most that you can make without sacrificing chance) and Z is basically (X + Y) times your rate of 1.1 in order to get your second bet. (X+Y)1.1 as stated.
