The MLB Comp Play for Wednesday is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern. The Mets were beat pretty good last night. Tonight they have Tylor Megil makes the start on his birthday and he has been super with a 2.10 era in his 6 starts. He takes on Fried for Atlanta who has allowed 14 runs in his last 22 innings. The Met were pounded 20-2 worst loss of the season back in June when they faced him. So a little payback is in order tonight and the Mets fit a nice bounce back system that is 17-6 since 2004. The Braves are 0-6 off a win of late and the Mets are 4-0 off a loss and 6-2 on Wednesdays. Look for the Met to take this one tonight. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Men’s Olympic Golf Preview & Picks
Golf returned to the Olympics in the 2016 Rio Summer games after a 112 year hiatus. The ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic caused the 2020 Tokyo Olympics to be rescheduled to this summer. As of now, the games are underway with no major issues arising. However, the Olympic Committee has warned that if an outbreak were to occur the games would be shut down immediately. With all Olympic events this year, no spectators will be allowed. The course was said to have a capacity of 25,000.
Golf in the Olympics is contentious as it isn’t truly the “peak” of the sport. While representing your country holds a special place in some guys hearts, most of the top golfers in the world have chosen to skip the event. Players skipping was also a trend back in 2016, with most of the players citing the Zika virus as the reason for not wanting to make the trip to Brazil. The PGA and European Tour have both tried to put pressure on players to attend but it hasn’t been effective. The biggest issue with scheduling, The Open was two weeks ago in England and now these guys have to fly to Tokyo, Japan if they want to compete in the Olympics. The PGA Tour doesn’t have an event next week however, the World Golf Championship is in two weeks.
Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim of South Korea, both dropped out of The Open to prep for the Olympics. All athletes from South Korea who win an Olympic medal are allowed to forgo a two-year military stint, which is mandatory for males between ages 18-28. So a spot on the podium means a little more for those two as they are looking to continue their careers on the PGA Tour without having a two year pause.
Notable withdraws/ Covid-19 Cases: Bryson Dechambeau (USA- COVID-19), Dustin Johnson (USA- Electing to Skip), Jon Rahm (Spain- COVID-19) Tyrell Hatton (Great Britain- Electing to Skip), Matthew Fitzpatrick (Great Britain- Electing to Skip), Lee Westwood (Great Britain- Electing to Skip), Sergio Garcia (Spain- Electing to Skip), Rafa Cabrera Bello (Spain- Electing to Skip), Adam Scott (Australia- Electing to Skip), Louis Oosthuizen (South Africa- Electing to Skip), Henrik Stenson (Sweden- Failed to Qualify), Bernd Wiesberger (Austria- Electing to Skip), Martin Kaymer (Germany – Electing to Skip), Emiliano Grillo (Argentina- Electing to Skip)
Olympic History (1900, 1904, 2016, 2020*):
Golf at the Olympics was first introduced at the 1900 Summer Olympics that were held in Paris, France. The event was a 36-hole stroke play tournament at the Compiegne Club. The Compiegne Club Golf Club was built in 1896 and was one of the only courses built outside of Great Britain or Ireland in the 19th century. The golf course was designed by M.W. Freemantle and located inside the horse racing track in Compiegne. Charles Sands from the United States took home the gold medal defeating Walter Rutherford of Great Britain by one stroke. The 1900 Olympics was the first Olympics that women were able to compete in. Margaret Abbot of the United States won the gold medal and became the first woman to win a gold medal in the Olympic games. Margaret’s mother, Mary Abbott, also competed in the event and finished seventh, making them the first and only mother and daughter that have competed in the same event at the same time. Margaret Abbott actually didn’t even know she won an Olympic Medal at the time and just happened to compete at the event because she was coincidently in Paris at the time.
In 1904, the Summer Olympics took place in Saint Louis, Missouri. The golf event was held at Glen Echo Country Club and featured a much different format than in 1900. The 1904 tournament started with a 36-hole stroke play qualifying round. The top 32 qualifies out of the 75 participants then faced off in a 5 round match play tournament with each match consisting of 36 holes. The rounds were played on consecutive days so the finalists, George Lyon and Chandler Egan ended up playing 216 holes in six days. George Lyon of Canada bested Chandler Egan of the US to win the golf medal. He was one of three players participating in the event that wasn’t from the US.
Golf was set to continue at the 1908 Summer Olympics in Great Britain but issues arose between the The Royal & Ancients and the Olympic Golf Committee. The cause of the issue remains unknown and golf was no long an Olympic event before making it’s return in 2016 at the Summer Games in Rio De Janeiro.
The 2016 Rio Olympics were a mess to say the least, with the course barely being completed on time. Most of the holes didn’t have yardage markers on them. Many of the worlds top golfers withdrew due to the Zika Virus. It featured a traditional format with a 72-hole individual stroke play tournament. Justin Rose of Great Britain won the event in the men’s competition.
Future venues for the Summer Olympics include:
- 2024: Paris (Golf National)
- 2028: Los Angeles (Riviera Country Club)
Tournament Information:
- Dates: July 29, 2021- August 1, 2021
- Location: Kawagoe, Saitama, Japan
- Course: Kasumigaseki Country Club – East Course
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,447 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 60 Players | No Cut
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Fairways: Bentgrass
- Purse: N/A
- Slope: 131
- Rating: 74.9
- Stimpmeter: 9-10 (Average / Slightly Slower)
- Green Size: Large
- Water Hazards: 2 Ponds (only present on 3 Holes)
- Bunkers/ Waste Area: Plentiful, thick Zoysia grass
Qualification Process:
The Qualification for the Olympics is quite different than the PGA or any other Professional Tour. The official qualifying period ended the day after the U.S. Open, June 21. So here’s how it works, the Top 15 Golfers in the Olympic Golf Rankings (basically the World Golf Rankings) are eligible for the Olympics up to a maximum of four golfers per country. Once the top 15 are selected, the rest of the field is filled until getting to 60 golfers going down the order in the Olympic Golf Rankings. The top two golfers qualify from any country that does not have two or more players in from the top 15. As the host country, Japan is guaranteed a minimum of two golfers in the field. If a player declines the invitation, the next eligible golfer from that country can take that spot.
The Kasumigaseki Country Club was founded in 1929 and has hosted several professional and amateur tournaments. The course itself is located about 35 miles from downtown Tokyo. Site of the 1957 World Cup that Japan won and launched them into the international golf world. Kasumigaseki Country Club has two courses, an East and a West. The club is extremely private and a somewhat controversial choice to host a Olympic Event due to it’s policies. Prior to 2017, the club did not award full membership and playing rights to female members. However that was changed due to pressure from the International Olympic Committee. The Kasumigaseki Country Club was the first ever 36-hole golf course in Japan and the first to implement dual greens – a feature unique to courses in Japan. The double greens are used for the change in seasons with one being used in summer and they other during winter.
Tom Fazio and his son Logan completely redesigned this course five years ago to what we think off as a modern course now. During that modernization, they added nearly 400 yards to the course rewarding the long ball hitter. They also got rid of the traditional double greens, and reconfigured the fairways and bunkers.
Hideki Matsuyama who’s competing for Japan, won the Asian Amateur Championships at Kasumigaseki Country Club back in 2010.
Course Breakdown:
From what I’ve heard/ read this course is in absolutely immaculate shape and manicured to to perfection. The weather in Tokyo has been mentioned a lot and will be a factor here. The current forecast is calling for low 90’s and extremely humid conditions. Let’s take a look at this golf course, starting with the tee shot. Unlike The Open which featured plenty of blind tee shots, every shot off the tee is visible which will help with the much needed accuracy off the tee. While water isn’t much of a factor, at all as it’s only in play on 3 holes, most fairways are lined with tree’s. Driving will be key this weekend, and will give the long hitters a slight advantage due to the length of this course. The fairway width was trimmed during the Fazio renovation to match the green shaping.
The course features three Par 5’s (Holes 5, 8, 14) with Hole 5 longest playing 640 yards which is insane. The other Par 5’s aren’t much better as Hole 8 is listed at 586 yards and Hole 14 plays 625 yards. All of the Par 3’s (Holes 4, 7, 10, 16) on the course play over 200 yards except for Hole 10 which is listed at 189 yards. The longest Par 3 is Hole 4, this hole is listed at 237 yards.
Professional Tournaments Previously Held at Course:
- Canada Cup (now the World Cup) 1957
- Japan Open 1933, 1956, 1995, 2006
- Japan Women’s Open 1999
- Japan Amateur Golf 1965, 1977
- Japan Women’s Amateur Golf 1956, 1964, 1974
- Asian Amateur Championship 2010
Course Architect/ Renovations/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Hugh Alison (1929)
Renovated: Tom and Logan Fazio (2016)
Comparable Courses:
- Quail Hallow
- Firestone CC
- Shadow Creek
- Augusta
- The Concession GC
- Congaree
An interesting note with the time difference is that the actual tournament starts on July 29th, but for North American viewers the tournament will start on the evening of the 28th.
- Round 1: Wednesday, July 28, 2021 – Golf Channel– 6:30 PM- 3:00 AM EDT
- Round 2: Thursday, July 29, 2021 – Golf Channel – 6:30- 3:00 AM PM EDT
- Round 3: Friday, July 30, 2021 – Golf Channel – 6:30- 3:00 AM PM EDT
- Round 4: Saturday, July 31, 2021 – Golf Channel – 6:30- 3:00 AM PM EDT
- Replay: Sunday, August 1, 2021 – NBCSN* – 5:00 PM EDT
For all rounds of the tournament, the players will be in groups of three. Depending on pending confirmation from the Olympic Broadcasting Services, groups will either start on only Hole 1 or both Holes 1 and 10. For Rounds 1 and 2, the groups will be published on July 27, two days before the event. As with most tournaments, the groups for rounds 3 and 4 will be based off their cumulative score.
Weather:
- Thursday: Scattered Tstorms 91 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 65% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Scattered Tstorms 91, 9 mp/h SE, 65% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Scattered Tstorms 91 F, 10 mp/h ESE, 65% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Thunderstorms 90 F, 10 mp/h E, 68% Humidity, 70% Chance of Rain
Tournament Trends:
- None available
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Total
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Par 4 Scoring
- Good Drives Gained
- Recent Form
- Birdies or Better %
- Scrambling
Previous Winners & Prices:
- 2016 Rio Olympics
- Gold: Justin Rose (+1000)
- Silver: Henrik Stenson (+500)
- Bronze: Matt Kuchar (+1600)
Picks (Outright):
- Justin Thomas (+1100)
- Risk 0.7 to win 7.7 Units
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
- Risk 0.55 to win 7.7 Units
- Patrick Reed (+1800)
- Risk 0.43 to win 7.74 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.68 Units
Picks (Top 10):
- Sungjae Im (+230)
- Risk 0.5 to win 1.15 Units
- Anirban Lahiri (+1200)
- Risk 0.1 to win 1.2 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 0.60 Units
Picks (Matchups TNT):
- C Smith (-105) over J Niemann
- Risk 1.05 to win 1.00
Total Risk on Matchups: 1.05 Units
Total Risk on Men’s Olympic Golf: 3.33 Units
Team Breakdowns (WGR):
- Australia
- Cameron Smith (28)
- Marc Leishman (43)
- Austria
- Matthias Schwab (118)
- Sepp Straka (174)
- Belgium
- Thomas Detry (94)
- Thomas Pieters (107)
- Canada
- Corey Conners (36)
- Mackenzie Hughes 63)
- Chile
- Joaquinn Niemann (31)
- Mito Pereira (146)
- China
- Yechun Yuan ()
- Ashun Wu (315)
- Columbia
- Sebastian Munoz (67)
- Czech Republic
- Ondrej Lieser (231)
- Denmark
- Rasmus Hojgaard (121)
- Joachim B. Hansen (151)
- Finland
- Kalle Samooja (117)
- Sami Valimaki (112)
- France
- Antoine Rozner (78)
- Roman Langasque (186)
- Germany
- Maximilian Kieffer (193)
- Hurly Long (263)
- Great Britain
- Paul Casey (20)
- Tommy Fleetwood (33)
- India
- Anirban Lahiri (340)
- Udayan Mane (356)
- Ireland
- Rory McIlroy (10)
- Shane Lowry (42)
- Italy
- Guido Migliozzi (72)
- Renato Paratore (180)
- Japan
- Hideki Matsuyama (16)
- Rikuya Hoshino (76)
- Malaysia
- Gavin Kyle Green (286)
- Mexico
- Abraham Ancer (23)
- Carlos Ortiz (53)
- New Zealand
- Ryan Fox (178)
- Norway
- Viktor Hovland (14)
- Kristian K Johannessen (292)
- Paraguay
- Fabrizio Zanotti (280)
- Philippines
- Juvic Pagunsan (216)
- Poland
- Adrian Meronk (189)
- Puerto Rico
- Rafael Campos (281)
- Slovakia
- Rory Sabbatini (167)
- South Africa
- Garrick Higgo (38)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (46)
- South Korea
- Sungjae Im (26)
- Si Woo Kim (49)
- Spain
- Jorge Campillo ()
- Adri Arnaus (147)
- Sweden
- Alex Noren (95)
- Henrik Norlander (136)
- Taiwan
- C.T. Pan (181)
- Thailand
- Jazz Janewattananond (129)
- Gunn Charoenkul (259)
- United States
- Justin Thomas (3)
- Collin Morikawa (4)
- Xander Schauffele (4)
- Patrick Reed (9)
- Venezuela
- Jhonattan Vegas (130)
- Zimbabwe
- Scott Vincent (239)
NFL Preseason Coaching Records – Sports Investing
NFL Preseason Football is right around the corner and there is no better way then to start preparing the season than looking at some data. Now, it is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, quarterback changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, new coordinators and maybe the most important factors in motivation. Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future.
Since the 2019 NFL football season, there have been a lot of coaching changes and no preseason games due to Covid so many of the coaches this year do not have any data points. My philosophy for betting games with coaches that have limited data is to stay away in general with a potential exception in the first week where new coaches in general sometimes want to start their season out on a positive note with a win. This is not a hard rule, because some coaches do not care, but it is best to try to avoid fading them unless they are playing against one of the bulls that we will discuss.
Getting back to the most important aspect for handicapping the NFL preseason, it is great to have the data on these coaches. It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do. I personally half to have at least 8 games played or 2 seasons of pre-season football to make a determination. As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have 0 significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be looser with their play calling, and looser on who they put in to play the game. Coaches that want to win will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during OTAs. They also will in mainly stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason. Other coaches that do not care at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs. These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason or were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years.
Most winning coaches who will be paying my bills:
- Mike Zimmer at 20-5 at 80% – Losing is for suckers!
- John Harbaugh at 37-12 at 76% – All he does is win win win no matter what!
- Jon Gruden at 37-17 at 69% – Winning football games is like Child’s Play.
The most losing coaches who will also help pay some bills are:
- Mike Vrabel at 2-6 at 25% – Why do things that you can put off until later?
- Matt Nagy at 3-6 at 33% – How can we win if Ryan Pace is picking our players?
- Andy Reid at 39-45 at 46% – If cheeseburgers are not involved than why bother?
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. Now I know that we only have 3 preseason games this year and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. For example. Jon Harbaugh is 12-1 in game ones but only 7-5 at game fours. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Also, Bill Belichick is 66% at 14-7 on game ones and only 8-12 in game fours. On the flip side, Mike Tomlin is only 7-8 in game one but 8-5 in game fours. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly give you an edge.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read quite easily on some of these teams these coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2021 is that the preseason schedule has been switched to only 3 games. Even though it is a big change, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game(s), and in the last game. I think that in the future we will add weeks two and three together to treat it as one game.
In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish. If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
FREE “Barking Dogs” Premium Picks with Analysis for July 27th
After going 3-0 in our “Barking Dogs” article yesterday, were back with 2 more for Tuesday night!
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The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday at Target Field. Left-hander Tyler Alexander will hone the mound for the Tigers. He is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 46 2/3 innings across four starts and 24 relief appearances. RHP Kenta Maeda gets the nod for the Twins. He is 4-4 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 79 2/3 IP spanning 16 starts. Maeda will be making his third start against the Tigers just since July 9 which gives Detroit plenty of tape to study the hurler. The Tigers and Twins own similar offensive numbers on the season. However, since the Twins traded away slugger Nelson Cruz, Minnesota’s offense has dropped into the bottom 3rd in the league hitting .222 in the past 5 days. Detroit has been playing well since the break which has earned them the 7th best wOBA and 5th most homeruns in the past 2 weeks. Additionally, the Cruzless Twins have been hitting an abysmal .109 in 75 plate appearances versus lefties at home in the past week while the Tigers have as the 6th most hits in the past month versus righties on the road this season. Lately, both bullpens have posted similar numbers including .243 and .254 opponent batting averages and 1.32 and 1.39 WHIPs over the past month. The Tigers own the edge in this matchup and to get a price like this, we are all over it. Take the Tigers +175
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The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs meet for the second game of their series tonight at Wrigley Field. Right-handed pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez will get the start for the Reds. He is 4-3 with a 4.97 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP in 54 1/3 IP over 10 starts. Gutierrez has been better on the road posting a 3.55 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The Cubs will counter with righty Adbert Alzolay. He is 4-10 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 88 1/3 IP over 17 starts. The Reds rank 5th in wOBA versus righties on the season and are hitting better on the road than the Cubs are hitting at home in the past month. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been awful this season but in the past 30 days they are pitching better than the Cubbies pen posting a 1.37 WHIP compared to Chicago’s, 24th ranked, 1.48 WHIP. Another factor to think this week is the trade deadline as Chicago is looking to sell off some assets and the Reds are in the divisional race. So that could include resting trade chips to stay healthy and tradeable. How does that effect players mindsets? Those names include top Cubs players Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Craig Kimbrel. They already sent one of their top relievers, Andrew Chafin, to the A’s last night. Take the Reds +165
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MLB Picks and Predictions – July 27, 2021
A nice 2-1 day was a good start to our week (how about that comeback, Philly?!?)! Onto Tuesday with a much bigger slate; here are my favorite plays:
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Orioles first 5 (+115), 1 unit and
Marlins/Orioles under 9.5 (-110), 2 units: In recent history the only thing that separates these two ballclubs has been their pitching caliber. Miami has owned a better rotation than Baltimore (and most MLB teams) and it’s what keeps them alive and in the hunt for the playoffs. It damn sure isn’t because of their offense. Today Spenser Watkins (1.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP over 16.1 innings) will take the mound for the Orioles and he’s the reason for this wager. We got behind him last time, much to our delight, and now the 28 year old Watkins will get his 3rd start for Baltimore. His workman-like mentality and diverse arsenal has Charm City pretty excited that they may have found an ace from the minors. While he’s certainly due for some negative regression (his xERA is 4.23) and it’ll come eventually, his confidence and command on the mound is something worth noting. His early marks are superb (0.55 HR/9 innings, 91.4% LOB rate) and he’s facing a Miami offense that’s subpar. He’s also at home and his team had a day of rest before today’s contest– this is a great spot for Baltimore. Sandy Alcantara (3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 119.2 innings) shows little signs of slowing down and he’s another pitcher we love to get behind. I don’t love that it’ll be hot and humid today at Camden Yards but I don’t think that will limit these two throwers. I’m on the Orioles to take the first 5 since I like their offense considerably better than Miami’s and I’m on the full game under.
Rays (-145), 1.5 units: The Rays own a 8-5 series lead over the Yankees so far in 2021 and this feels like one of those spots where they outdo their division rival once again. Last time Shane McClanahan (3.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 65 innings) went up against the Bronx Bombers, he struggled. Allowing 5 hits and 4 runs in only 3.1 innings at Yankee Stadium, McClanahan’s ferocious but often volatile pitching can cultivate giant slugs and homers a little too often. His 1.25 HR/9 innings speaks to that issue. Still, I’m not down on the guy. His 3.86 xERA and 3.12 xFIP demonstrate projections that are beyond what pundits may prognosticate. While the Yankees have had some success against lefties, I expect McClanahan to look better today. If he can make it into the 5th inning, I really like the Rays chances even more (and it may be worth a live-bet look if he does). Jordan Montgomery (3.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 104.2 innings) has similar numbers to McClanahan but he certainly doesn’t scare me away against this surging Rays’ offense. It’s unclear whether Aaron Judge will return today but if he’s officially out, this line should rise. The Rays are at home where they’re 30-18 on the year and they’ve been lights out since returning from the break, winning 7 out of their last 10 games. I’m on Tampa.
Astros/Mariners No Run in First Inning (-115), 1 unit: This was a scary bet Monday and a good one to fade, but after an offensive showcase from these two squads in their opening matchup (6-0 Astros in the first, 19 runs total), I’m taking a shot on this bet tonight. Chris Flexen (3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 104.2 innings) seems to be getting better and better as the season goes on, flexing (see what I did there?) a 1.42 ERA over 25.1 innings in July. Lance McCullers Jr. (3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 91.2 innings) is due for a better performance after surrendering 6 hits and 4 runs over 5 innings in his last start against Cleveland. I don’t have to tell you that when you see any pitcher give up those numbers against the “Guardians,” it’s a real head-scratcher. McCullers Jr. has arguably been Houston’s most consistent pitcher all season and Seattle is a good offense to expect some negative regression from. The Houston defense also has some extra motivation to improve after their atrocious showing last night in Seattle, letting the home-team come back from big deficits on multiple occasions. I’ll take a look at the under but with the way Seattle is hitting and the Astros’ consistently productive offense, I’ll take a value play with two great pitchers in the first inning instead for 1 unit.
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Lessons Learned from the 2020-2021 NBA Season
When you’re a handicapper out there in the over-saturated market of sports betting, it’s important to look back and reflect on what you did right and what you did wrong after a long season of wagers. In my experience that’s one way to set yourself apart from others. So, in the spirit of sharing and becoming sharper, here are some of my observations and notes that I’ll be taking with me into the 2022 NBA Season. We had a fantastic year hitting at a 58% clip but here at TheOddsBreakers, we still want more!
The Bucks aren’t going anywhere and the post-Lebron NBA: Yes indeed it’s a new NBA and as Colin Cowherd said, Giannis is driving the car and everyone else is in the back. Lebron still has plenty of gas in the tank but I’m not the only one who thinks he’s beyond his prime. The quicker turnaround into another season clearly took its toll on an aging King James and we saw the results. I’m sure the Lakers will continue to fish for more talent and I’m far from alleging that Lebron and LAL are done. That being said, it feels like the league will have to run through Milwaukee for the foreseeable future.
The one issue the Bucks always had was their #2. We were told it was Khris Middleton but time and time again, Middleton struggled in key spots and Giannis’ other supporting cast members couldn’t step up when the going got tough. Not this time. With a full playoff run against the most elite teams in the East and a championship title under their belt, is there a team in the Eastern Conference that can stop these Bucks? The 76ers are looking to modify their roster. The Heat were probably a one-hit wonder. The Hawks and Knicks are ascending but feel like they’re still missing some pieces. And the Nets, for all their fanfare, have yet to prove they can stay healthy and demonstrate consistency down the stretch. If you ask me, the East runs through Milwaukee and the NBA is now run by the two-time MVP and NBA MVP/Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
When a team or player shows you who they are, believe it: Over the season we tend to create narratives in our heads and more often than not, those come into question when we’re placing a bet. Good, they should, and it’s important to play devil’s advocate on yourself. But let’s be real– most of what we observe on a day-to-day basis in the NBA doesn’t change.
Some teams seem to truly care less about defense (the Pelicans). Other teams rest players on a routine basis, even if it doesn’t seem to make sense (the Clippers, the Nets). Other teams never rest players (the Suns, the Knicks). Some players give max effort on just about every play (Jrue Holiday, Montrezl Harrel). Other guys make us question if they care about being a basketball player at all (Ben Simmons).
Some things we see in the NBA are hard to wrap our heads around, but that doesn’t mean they’re not true. Perhaps above all sports, the NBA is full of players who don’t quite understand how to handle the pressures of being a professional athlete. That’s what happens when you combine a “player’s commissioner” (Adam Silver is as soft as it gets, sorry not sorry) into an overly long season with immensely talented young men. The shit hits the fan. Don’t second guess what you’re seeing– bet on those angles.
Practice the 30/60 rule for live-betting totals: Did I come up with the term “30/60 rule?” Yes. Do I worry you’ll trademark it? Not really. It’s not rocket science, plus I have a pretty good lawyer. Insert shitty grin smiley.
What is the 30/60 rule you ask? It’s simple. When I live-bet NBA totals, I keep in mind that high scoring teams (the Bucks, Nets, Wizards etc.) usually score around 30 points per quarter. If they’re facing another high-scoring team, the line should be set between 60-65 for the first quarter and then around 230 for the entire game. If the game starts out slow, the live total (for whatever quarter they’re playing) will drop. I often take advantage of those situations and once it drops to a point where I’m comfortable it’ll easily be eclipsed, I fire away. Same goes for the first half (which is usually set around 120 for high scoring teams) and for the full game.
Conversely, if two lower scoring teams are facing each other and they start off on fire, more often than not we can anticipate that the total will end up falling way below the inflated live-line the books give you amidst all the buckets. Like any part of life, eventually all things regress to the mean (average) and it should be used to your advantage. Of course there are many other factors to consider: defensive ratings, injuries, importance of the game itself and of course– the spot. Aberrations do exist but they usually only show up in exceptional circumstances. If you still don’t understand the 30/60 rule, shoot me a DM on Twitter and I’d be happy to go over it with you.
Ignore conventional handicapping rules with NBA injuries: This may be old news but it’s worth reiterating. Typically the rule in sports handicapping is that you want the best line available– makes sense, right? Sell high, buy low– the best sports bettors make sure their analysis and angles are ahead of the books and in that preparation comes plenty of success. Play the number, not the game. Just ask our writers here at TheOddsBreakers, who took Packers bets well before the news broke that Rodgers will return to Green Bay.
But the NBA is different. I can’t tell you how many times I was locked and loaded and feeling great about a given bet, only to learn 15-30 minutes before tipoff that team A or team B will rest some of their stars. Talk about deflating. If you’re lucky, your book may allow you to pull out of your bet before the game starts, but in many cases the “injury” designations change the line too significantly for the book to allow it. Although some teams rarely have these issues (Suns, Knicks, Spurs– basically the teams with old school coaches), other teams can leave you feeling ghosted. In the strange world of NBA betting, sometimes it’s better to practice patience before placing a wager.
Anticipate more defense in the playoffs (and damn near NO defense in the regular season): It’s hard to fathom how little defense there is the modern NBA. There’s a reason why totals in Wizards and Nets and Bucks’ games often soar into the 240s at the final whistle– these guys just don’t feel like playing hardcore defense during the regular season (which has given way to ultra-fast-paced tempos, too). It’s almost as if the players’ association came to an agreement that, from here on (aka the “modern” NBA), we’ll see who can win games based solely on how accurate your team is shooting the ball, uncontested. Years from now I can see a book being written called “From 38 Feet Beyond the Arc: How the Players’ Decided Defense No Longer Matters.” No doubt it creates a more entertaining scene– who doesn’t want to see Lillard launch three-pointers from outside the arena and who doesn’t love Giannis careening himself through the front court for a hellacious slam dunk as defenders part like the Red Sea? It’s a showcase of shooting talent and athleticism; long-gone are the days of Isaiah Thomas and Charles Barkley commanding the rim with ferocity. That is, until we enter the postseason.
The NBA Finals are a great example of how defense tends to ramp up. Only game 5 eclipsed 240 points. The rest of the contests tallied 223, 226, 220, 212, and 203. And that’s between two highly efficient, high-tempo offenses who were shooting out of their minds the entire series.
The pendulum is starting to swing back to a more traditional approach, though. Teams like the Knicks and Lakers and Heat emphasize defense over offense, limiting other teams’ to way below their average output throughout the year. Maybe they weren’t part of the aforementioned agreement. Regardless, when handicapping totals, expect little defense during the season and a different version of the association once the playoffs begin.
Count on teams that have good coaching/leadership: I talked about it all year (even though I worried it could sound pretentious) and it reigned true. The most consistent teams in the NBA are the teams who have great leadership, both on the court and on the bench coaching. The Suns. The Jazz. The Lakers (with Lebron on the floor). The Knicks. The Spurs. Look at the NBA ATS trends and that much is clear. Look at how Team-USA is performing in the 2021 Olympics and it’s even more clear.
In general, the most frustrating and inconsistent teams were the ones without great leadership. The modern NBA era is about all-world talent and the Nets are the greatest example of that. Their “big 3” is nearly impossible to stop when they’re all in a flow. But their big 3 is also a highly volatile group of skill players who can’t stay healthy, can’t keep their mouths shut on social media, and often look lost when things don’t go their way on the hardwood. Steve Nash is probably an above average coach but that’s not an easy trio to manage. On-court generals tend to set their team’s attitude more than any coach is capable of doing. Just ask Chris Paul, Lebron, Giannis, Jimmy Butler or Julius Randle. Although it may be viewed as an intangible worth forgetting, don’t make the mistake of discounting veteran leadership, especially in big games. Considering their influence could make the difference between a wager won and a wager lost.
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Podcast 47 – 21 – NFL 2021 Preseason Coaching Records and Motivation – Easy Deposit Bonus Money – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! We are back to our 2+ podcasts per week schedule and today we hope that we can bring you some value. Kiev O’Neil goes solo to discuss the ever changing college football landscape, guaranteeing yourself some money from a free bet deposit bonus and some Preseason NFL betting. First, Kiev discusses the direction college football is headed and why. Next, he gets into how guarantee yourself money from a free bet deposit bonus using a staggered parlay! Total Payout – Z – X = Y is the equation that we discuss. Then, Kiev talks about preseason NFL betting and how you can find value doing it based on several factors with coaching motivation as the number 1 end all be all. Finally, we give out a FREE NFL Preseason Play for your NFL pleasure!
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Rob Vinciletti: Tuesday MLB Pick and prediction St. Louis vs Cleveland
Tuesday card has a Rare HIGHEST Rated 6* MLB Play with a 16-0 System and Our Exclusive Olympic Tennis Plays. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on Cleveland at 7:10 eastern. Cleveland is a solid 43-18 as a home favorite long term and tonight they qualify on a nice 14-1 league wide system that plays on certain home teams that are off a home dog win and are taking on a team like the Cardinals that are off a home win and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits. Cal Quantrill has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 7 appearances. Wainwright for St. Louis has dropped 6 of 9 on the road. St. Louis is 1-6 with rest and has dropped 11 of 15 in Game 1 of a series. Look for Cleveland to take the opener. On Tuesday we have a Powerful MLB Card up with our highest rated 6* release from a 16-0 system and more Olympic Tennis Selections. See us on Facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Cleveland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Free Premium Picks (Barking Dogs) with Analysis for Monday July 26th
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The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs match up Monday night at Wrigley Field. Veteran lefty Wade Miley get the start for the Reds. He is 8-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 102 2/3 IP spanning 17 starts. Miley has been outstanding in July, with just 3 earned runs allowed over 21 innings through three starts. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks will get the nod for the Cubs. He is 12-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 117 1/3 IP spanning 20 starts. The Cubs come into this one owning the 23rd ranked batting average in the past 30 days while Cincinnati owns a .288 batting average and .364 wOBA over the past week, which is good enough for 4th and 5th in the league. The strength of the Cubs is their bullpen and is the clear weakness for the Reds, so we will bank on Miley pitching well and throwing at least 5 innings and leaving the bullpens out of the handicap for this ballgame. Take the Reds F5 +115
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The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals swing into a four-game AL Central set at Kauffman Stadium. Lefty Dallas Keuchel will be the starting pitcher for the White Sox. He is 7-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 102 1/3 IP spanning 18 starts. Keuchel has not been as sharp on the road this season as the Sox hurler has posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 45.2 innings pitched. Left-hander Mike Minor will head to the mound for the Royals. Through 20 starts, he is 7-8 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 112 1/3 IP. The host, Royals, endured a rough pre- and post-break stretch that saw them go 4-17 from June 23-July 18. Kansas City is 5-0 with an .805 team OPS since. The White Sox own the 4th best wOBA versus lefties on the season but Kansas City is, surprisingly, right there as well as they own a 5th best batting average (.375) at home versus lefties this year. In addition to that, the Royals are 3rd in the league in stolen bases, swiping 61 bags as they generate offense. The bullpen for the Royals has been very average this season, however, since the break they have been locked in posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, good enough for 5th best in the majors during that stretch. The value is this ballgame is the squad from KC. Take the Royals +107
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The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros for the opener of a four-game series tonight at T-Mobile Park. Right-hander Luis Garcia is on the mound for the Astros. He is 7-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 16 starts and two relief appearances. Rookie righty Darren McCaughan is making his first career start for the Mariners. McCaughan’s first appearance was Wednesday at the Colorado Rockies where he had 5 IP with 1 ER, 0 H, 3 BB and 0 K in Seattle’s 6-3 loss. The strengths for each team are the each other’s weaknesses as Houston owns the 2nd best wOBA offensively this season and Seattle’s bullpen posts a top ten 1.23 WHIP and xFIP (4.12) on the year. The Astros offense has dropped off a bit in the past 30 days as they have been hitting a lousy .195 against righties during that stretch and their bats have cooled even more since the break owning a horrible .159 batting average versus right-handers in the past two weeks. Seattle comes into this series hitting and pitching better than their opponent and we are offered an excellent price for the team that, in my opinion, has the edge in this ballgame. Take the Mariners +151
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Rob Vinciletti: Tokyo 2020 Olympics Tennis Pick and Preview
The Tennis Power Play is on Stefano Tsitsipas at 10:00 eastern. Massive revenge spot here for Stefano as he took Tiafoe lightly and was Humiliated at Wimbledon as a huge favorite losing in straight sets. He was honored to be the first player for Greece to win a singles match since 1924 so he will be more than Motivated here. a Quote from Tsiitsipas “I’ve learned my lessons,” Tsitsipas added. “I try and move on better this time. He’s an opponent around my age group and we’re kind of building a rivalry. I’m going to have to raise my level this time.” Tiafoe played well in round 1 but may be in the wrong spot at the wrong time. Play Stefano Tsitssipas on the game line. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
