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August 14th MLB Pick
Coming off a disappointing 0-2 night, I’m looking to bounce back with 1 winner tonight.
August 2021 Record: 10-8-4, +2.63u
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 ML(-135) @ Mariners–9:10 PM CT
The Mariners won Game 1 of this series by a score of 3-2 last night, but I believe the Blue Jays have the edge in Game 2 today. While tonight’s SP’s have similar numbers, I’m much more willing to trust Hyun Jin Ryu given his career track record(3.04 career ERA). Ryu’s 3.62 ERA is somewhat underwhelming, but his road numbers have been much better(3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9). This is likely due to the fact that the Blue Jays have played the majority of their home games in minor league ballparks where hitters have a significant advantage. Tonight’s setting, T-Mobile Park, has historically been friendly to pitchers, and considering the Mariners have hit just .215 against lefties at home since June 1st, the path to a good outing is clear for Ryu tonight. Mariners SP Yusei Kikuchi has pieced together a solid season so far, but this Blue Jays lineup presents a dreadful matchup. As much as hitting in minor league parks has helped the Jays this season, they’ve been able to put together dominant numbers on the road as well. Since June 1st, they’ve hit .292 against lefties on the road, good for second in baseball over that span. Kikuchi’s strikeouts are at an all-time high this season, but he’s also giving up 1.6 HR/9. With a FIP at 4.38(compared to a 3.73 ERA), some regression can be expected from the Japanese lefty. Because of the recent struggles from Toronto’s bullpen, I’m hesitant to play the Blue Jays full game. However, I think Ryu and the Jays offense have what it takes to give themselves a lead heading into the late innings.
MLB 8/14/21 Saturday Super Plays – Sports Investing
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota -107 O/U 9.5
It is true that the Twins are the biggest disappointment in baseball this year and you will get no arguments from me but I have a question for you. Are you a sinner? The reason that I ask this is because it would be a sin to not fade Wacha on the road here. Michael has a 5.97 FIP and a 1.66 WHIP when leaving the freedom state, and while Tampa has been hitting much better lately, Minnesota at least has their best pitcher going in Kenta Maeda who has a 2.77 FIP at home and a 1.27 WHIP. The Twinkies quietly rank 10th in wRC+ which tells me that they will score a few runs here. Twins are also mispriced slightly due to BABIP. I have to take the Twins 1st 5 to be on the safe side.
Twins – 1st 5 -125 – 2 stars
Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins -148 O/U 7.5
Here is another strange price. The Marlins are in last place and won’t be making the playoffs but they at least still have some guys left. The Cubs sent a message loud and clear that they are rebuilding and they are not even a shell of what we saw last year. Stats do not justify this game after the trades but what certainly does is Zach Thompson pitching for the Miami who has a 3.78 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP vs the other Zach in Zach Davies who has a 5.14 FIP and 1.57 walks and hits over innings pitched. Too add punishment to the pain, the Cubs best player in Wilson Contreres in on the shelf with a knee sprain. Grab the fish at the low price.
Miami -148 – 1.5 stars
NFL 2021 Preseason Week 1 Free Play – Sports Investing
New Orleans vs Baltimore -2.5 O/U 36
The Saints have a lot of work to do and I think that is what is keeping this spread down some. Taysom Hill is competing with Jameis Winston for the starting position and the narrative is that these two quarterbacks are going to duke it out all game to see who gets the nod. What people are completely ignoring here is that there are 4 quarterbacks and this roster and at least 1 of them needs to be cut. Ian Book and Trevor Siemian will be gunning today and will most likely getting some serious reps during this contest. If you know anything about John Harbaugh, he likes to win preseason games. He is 37-12 in preseason games at 76% showing how much he cares to get the W. His backup quarterback Trace McSorely completely understand that the backup roll isn’t quite set yet and he has to beat out Tyler Huntley to secure his roster spot. The biggest thing about this handicap is that Harbaugh is 12-1 in week 1 preseason games and his only loss was his first year coaching. John is on an 11-0 run in week 1s and I do not want to be that guy who fades him. Ravens by 7.
Baltimore -2.5 – 3 stars
MLB Picks and Predictions – August 14, 2021
Even though we had a let-down Friday, this is undoubtedly my sharpest week yet in MLB– we’ve gone 12-4 over the last 9 days and 6/9 of those days have been undefeated. Let’s keep this train chugging– here are 2 more free plays for your Saturday, enjoy!
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Reds (-139), 2 units: Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA, 3.98 xERA over 131 innings) has been the poster boy of unpredictable outcomes this year. Once thought of as the Reds’ most prized pitcher, full of potential and ace skill, Castillo’s performances have left us both in awe in how dominant he can be and in disbelief in how awful his command can sink. In his last outing, Castillo got obliterated at Cleveland, permitting 7 hits and 8 runs in just over 3 innings on the mound. It was a return of the Castillo we saw back in April and May, where he put up god-awful 6.29 and 8.04 ERAs in the first 2 months of the season. But the summer was different. In 68.4 innings during June and July, the 28 year old had a 1.93 ERA and never allowed a team to score more than 3 points. He only allowed 1 run or less in 7 out of those 11 starts. I think we’ll see the more stable and more dynamic version of Castillo this afternoon. This is a big game for both of these teams and the Phillies have a much weaker starting pitcher in Matt Moore (6.79 ERA, 1.63 WHIP over 50.1 innings). Moore struggles in myriad ways but none more than his homerun allowance (2.15/9 innings). The Reds are top 5 in almost every major offensive category over the last 2 weeks, and no team has a better slugging percentage (.525) over that span. They’re also 2nd only to the White Sox with 27 homers the past 14 days. This is not a good setup for Moore and while Castillo just had one of his worst performances of the year, the Phillies’ bats have gone ice cold over their last 5 games, averaging only 1.6 runs per contest. The road-warrior Reds have won 7 of their last 10 games and need to keep winning to stay in NL Central contention. After starting off August on fire, the Phillies have now dropped 3 of their last 5. Cincinnati is 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and 23-8 in their last 31 games as a favorite. Take the Reds.
Braves -1.5 (-110), 2 units: The Braves smell blood. Unless Juan Soto holds the entire team on his shoulders and whacks a few homeruns, the Nationals have been completely abysmal the last 2 weeks. Losers of 10 of their last 11 games (and over half of those by margin), the aimless Nationals continue to let their season crumble while the top 3 teams in the NL East are still competing in a tight race for 1st place. And Atlanta is starting to hum. Coming into Saturday the Braves have now won 9 of their last 12 contests and they’re tied with the Phillies for the top spot in their division. Ergo, there’s little reason to believe that the motivation won’t be there. Today they’ll send Max Fried (3.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 103.2 innings) to the mound, who has yet to maintain consistency this year, but I think his profile is still solid enough to get behind. Fried boasts solid numbers across the board, including a 75% LOB rate, 4.03 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, and only 0.95 HR/9 innings. Against the always-capable Juan Soto and other power-hitters of the Nationals, that last statistic is rather important. Fried has mixed results against Washington this season but it’s reasonable to say that this is a far less intimidating lineup he’ll be opposing today. I like Fried to have a solid showing; I can’t say the same for Patrick Corbin (5.83 ERA, 1.42 WHIP over 122 innings). In 11.1 innings against Atlanta this season, Corbin has surrendered 11 hits and 9 runs. His alarming HR allowance (1.99/9 innings), dropping LOB rate (68%), and 5.80 xERA should give Washington backers even more caution. There’s always a chance that the Nationals could wake up and decide to make this a ball-game but there are few indications that it will realistically happen against this determined and streaking Braves unit. Atlanta is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left handed pitcher. Take the Braves by margin.
Rob Vinciletti: Saturday NFLX Preview and Prediction
Saturday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 MLB and the First time all year we have 2 Platinum Supreme moves one in Soccer and one in NFLX headlining a tremendous Saturday card. Comp Play below.
The NFLX Comp play is on SF at 8:30 eastern. The Niners fit a nice opening week Preseason system tonight and they have the better back end Qb/s. The Chiefs are 0-9 to the spread as an NFLX Dog of 2 or more and they have failed to cover the last 5 vs NFC West teams. The Niners have covered the last 4 in the Preseason series with KC. Look for the Niners to get the win here. On Saturday one of the strongest cards of the season thus far as we have an Executive Level TIER 1 MLB and a Pair of Platinum supreme Open enders. One in the NFL and one in Soccer. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out. For the Comp play. Go with San Francisco. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Alan Cashman’s Friday MLB
Friday 8/13
Going with Marlins Over 3.5 tonight . -110 is a good number given some of trends below
MLB
Chicago Cubs at Miami 7:10 pm
Alzolay vs Luzardo
Pick: MIA Over 3.5 (-110)
Alzolay 5.06 Road ERA
Alzolay 5.29 ERA in night games
Alzolay has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts
Cubs bullpen 7.02 ERA last 10 games
Cubs have allowed 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games
MIA has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games
Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Friday, August 13rd
Friday the 13th?! Will it be a crazy night in sports? I guess we’re just gonna have to wait, watch and see! We went 1-1 yesterday pushing our record to 31-19 (62%) in our last 50 plays including 16-7 (70%) in our last 21 plays and barking dog plays have been 12-5 (70%) in our last 17 underdog plays!! I have a free premium totals play for you for tonight where we look to continue executing the edge!
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The Chicago Cubs will travel to Miami tonight to open a three-game weekend series at Marlins Park versus the Marlins. Right-hander Adbert Alzolay is set to take the hill for the Cubs. The 26-year-old enters with a 4-12 record to go along with a 4.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 105 innings pitched in 20 starts. Miami will hand the ball to lefty Jesus Luzardo for his third start since the trade deadline. Acquired from the Oakland Athletics, the 23-year-old is 3-5 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across 85.2 innings pitched in 15 games (eight starts). This is not the prettiest of starting pitching matchups but one thing that both starters have in common is that they will be going up against 2 stagnant offenses which should improve their numbers. It’s hard to predict who will win this game. Miami has lost 10 of its last 14 games and five of its last six overall. The Cubs haven’t been any better, dropping eight in a row and 14 of their last 16 games. Lets dig in a bit. Since the trade deadline, both of these teams rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in runs scored, homeruns, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Additionally, Chicago ranks 26th in the league with a .286 wOBA while scoring just 3.72 runs per game on the road this season. On the same topic, Miami’s offense has hit to a .286 wOBA, as well, while scoring 3.94 runs per game at home this season. Did I mention that both teams traded away their best hitters too? This should be a good “get right spot” for these starters. Take Under 7.5 runs
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NFL 8/13/21 Preseason Play – Sports Betting
Tennessee vs Atlanta -1 O/U 38
It’s Friday the 13th and we have found a not-so-scary free play for you! Now this is a game that fits some of the important preseason data. Unless you just arrived at The OddsBreakers, you know that coaching motivation is the most important thing when betting NFL preseason football. Looking at this game, you have The Atlanta Falcons who has a new coach in Arthur Smith. New coaches in general get a bit more fired up abut their first preseason games compared to the tenured ones. Now even though that there is no quarterback controversy in Atlanta, we must not ignore the fact that backups AJ McCarron and Felipe Franks is not a settled position. Digging a little deeper, the Titans also do not have any starting quarterback controversies and their backups Logan Woodside and Matt Barkley aren’t exactly something to write home about. Looking at Mike Vrable, he is a miserable 2-6 in preseason football and he is smart enough to not be risking his veteran talent in this football game. Tennessee will be treating this game with the only goal in mind as to test out his 3rd and 4th string to see who makes this team. Finally, coach Arthur Smith came from Tennessee over the last few years as offensive coordinator meaning that he will want to make an impact against his former team. Take the dirty birds.
Atlanta -1 – 2 stars
August 13th MLB Picks
August 13th Card
Sitting at 6-0-1, +6.43u on the week, I’m looking towards 2 MLB plays tonight to keep things rolling into the weekend.
*MLB(1u): Athletics/Rangers F5 UNDER 4.5(-120)–7:05 PM CT
The A’s exploded for 17 runs in Cleveland yesterday in a runaway victory, but even so, I’m not as sold on this offense as some. Rangers SP Dane Dunning has solid numbers at home this season(2.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9) and tossed 4 shutout innings against the A’s just last month. That said, A’s SP Cole Irvin draws a desirable matchup against a Rangers lineup that has scored just 1 run in each of its last 2 games. The lefty has fared well on the road this season(3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9), and considering the Rangers’ inability to hit for power, I think Irvin has a clear path to a dominant start tonight. I was debating playing this F5 Under when the total was at 4, so when I saw it jump up to 4.5, I hopped all over it.
*MLB Best Bet(1.5u): Giants -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–8:45 PM CT
-The Giants have continued to stay red hot, and after winning 7 of their last 8 entering tonight, they now hold a 5 game lead in the NL West. They easily took care of the Rockies last night in a 7-0 win, and I’m willing to bet we see a similar result tonight. San Fran will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound tonight; after a stellar 1st Half, DeSclafani has come back down to earth over his last 4 starts, but I can assure you there is no lineup he’d rather see right now than these Rockies. In 2 starts against Colorado this season(both at home), DeSclafani has managed to toss 15 shutout innings, including a complete game shutout. The Rockies are among the worst lineups in baseball away from home, hitting just .214 against righties on the road since June 1st, so I like DeSclafani to get back on track tonight. While I trust the Giants more against righties, they shouldn’t have much trouble against Rockies LHP Austin Gomber tonight. Compared to his 1.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP at Coors Field this season, Gomber has horrible road numbers(5.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9). As per usual in San Francisco, the wind is blowing out tonight; in Gomber’s previous start in San Fran this season, he coughed up 9 runs and lasted just 1.2 innings. As insurance, it’s comforting to know that the Giants have one of the best bullpens in baseball, while Colorado has one of the worst. At even money, I like the Giants RL as my best bet tonight.
