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Saratoga Preview & Picks – GI Coaching Club American Oaks & GIII Caress Stakes – July 24, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
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The second weekend of Saratoga features the GI American Oaks, GIII Caress Stakes, and the Grade III Shuvee. The GI American Oaks and GIII Caress Stakes will take place on Saturday while the GIII Shuvee runs on Sunday. In both races, we really don’t have too deep of a field. The Grade I American Oaks is headlined by morning line favorite Malathatt at 2-5. There’s only four horses in this race, so it’s not that great of a race to wager on. In the Grade III Caress stakes the field expands to six horses but, again, we have heavy favorites in Caravel and Robin Sprinkles.

Next weekend, we have one of the better slates at the Spa to look forward to which includes one GI Stakes and three GII Stakes.

 

G1 Coaching Club American Oaks

Inaugurated in 1917, the Coaching Club American Oaks is named in honor of the Coaching Club of America, for which a requisite for membership was the ability to handle a coach and four horses with a single group of reins. August Belmont II set the original conditions to emulate the Epsom Oaks (now the Epsom Derby) in England. From 1919-1941 and 1944-1958, the race was run at 1 3/8 miles; from 1990-1997 and 2004-2009 at 1 ¼ miles, and in 1942 and 1943, from 1971-1989 and from 1998-2003 at 1 ½ miles. Since 2010, when it was moved from Belmont Park to Saratoga Race Course, it has been run at 1 1/8 miles. Prior to 1928 it was run as a handicap.

Race Information:

  • Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
  • Event Grade: I
  • Race: 5
  • Post Time: 3:23 PM ET
  • Length: 1 1/8 Miles
  • Purse: $500,000
  • Division: Fillies | 3 Year Olds
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Double Wagers, NO SHOW WAGERING

 

Field:

  1. Malathaat (John Velazquez), 2-5
  2. Maracuja (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 6-1
  3. Rockpaperscissors (Luis Saez), 15-1
  4. Clairiere (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 9-5

 

Horse Preview:

MALATHATT, the unbeaten filly will be the star of the show on Saturday at Saratoga. She’ll go off as the heavy favorite in the GI American Oaks. I mean, this horse is absolutely incredible. As mentioned before she’s unbeaten in her five career starts, capturing two Grade I victories. She’s enters this race off a bit of a lay off with her last race coming back in April. In that race at Churchill she struggled a bit out of the gate but, ended up edging out SEARCH RESULTS down the stretch to win the GI Kentucky Oaks.

CLAIRIERE, enters this race with just one career stakes win under her belt. Earlier this year, she captured the Grade II Rachael Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds. She lost to MALATHATT two races prior in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks where she finished 4th. In that race she broke well, settled into the middle of the pack but, didn’t have enough of a kick to catch MALATHATT. More recently she raced in the Grade II Mother Goose at Belmont and finished third. She’s finished in the money every one of her six career starts besides, the Kentucky Oaks.  CLAIRIERE and MALATHATT have similar pedigree as they were both fathered by CURLIN. CLAIRIERE is trained by S. Asmussen who trained CURLIN, while Todd Pletcher trains MALATHATT.

MARACUJA, has a familiar foe in MALATHATT where they faced off in the GI Kentucky Oaks. In that race, she wound up finishing seventh being a complete non factor. In the GII Gazelle, she had finished second to SEARCH RESULTS.

ROCKPAPERSCISSORS, has only raced in three races in her career. She broke her maiden just last race in a MSW at Churchill Downs on September 19th of 2020. This three year old filly is came off a massive layoff of nearly a year and in her last year where she came out victorious. In those three races, she didn’t display the speed needed to compete with the favorites but maybe she’s up for the challenge.

 

Race Preview:

We’ll this is a tough race to find value, due to a small field and a heavy favorite in MALATHAAT. She’s undefeated in her career and seems to be improving in every race. MALATHAAT likes to run off the off the pace and will be joined by the other favorite CLAIRIERE. Make no mistake CLAIRIERE has the closing speed to challenge MALATHAAT in this race. MARACUJA has seen both of these favorites in the GIII Gazelle and was outclassed. ROCKPAPERSCISSORS is some what of a wild card here, having only three career starts. We’ll see if she can handle the step up in class and push the pace.

Front Runners: ROCKPAPERSCISSORS

Off the Pace: MALATHAAT, CLAIRIERE

Closers: MARACUJA

 

Picks:

BEST BET – WIN: (1) MALATHATT

If you’re looking for any value in this race, single the (1) horse here when playing a multi race exotic ticket. With only four horses in this race, every entry will continue to get bet down limiting the value on even the long shots.

 

VALUE BET – WIN: (2) MARACUJA

If you’re not looking to back the favorites, look at the MARACUJA. In the Oaks she broke flat footed and never really found her groove. She skipped the Mother Goose but, is said to be doing much better now. With the shorter field, she should get a better start out of the gate and has the ability to run a better race.

 

G3 Caress Stakes

Named after the multiple-graded stakes winning mare trained by Hall of Famer H. Allen Jerkens, the Caress was first run in 2008 at seven furlongs on the turf and in 2009 it was contested at six furlongs. Not run in 2010 and 2011; in 2012, it was run at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Caress, a daughter of Storm Cat, retired in 1996 with a record of 13-4-2 from 29 career starts, including victories in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont Park as well as the Beaugay and Athenia, both Grade 3 events at Aqueduct Racetrack. 

Race Information:

  • Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
  • Event Grade: III
  • Race: 10
  • Post Time: 6:13 PM ET
  • Length: 5.5 Furlongs
  • Purse: $200,000
  • Division: Open | 4 Year Olds & Up
  • Surface: Turf
  • Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers

 

Field:

  1. Caravel (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 7-5
  2. Robin Sparkles (Jose Ortiz), 6-5
  3. Tass (Eric Cancel), 30-1
  4. In Good Spirits (John Velazquez), 8-1
  5. Flower Point (Joel Rosario), 8-1
  6. Jakarta (Luis Saez), 6-1

 

Horse Preview:

CARAVEL is a four year old mare who enters he first Stakes Race in her career. She’s had eight starts in career, taking home first in six of them and third twice. CARAVEL is coming off back to back victories in 5 Furlong Sprints.

JAKARTA is a six year old mare who has yet to find the winner’s circle in 2021. So far, he has raced in five starts this year finishing (4-4-3-8-4). He won twice in his first two starts back in 2020 then jumped up to Grade III Stakes races where he was outmatched. In his second race, where he won, he ran a distance of a mile. During his struggles, earlier this year, they moved him back to a mile but failed to find any success finishing fourth in that race. In April of this year, he bested IN GOOD SPIRITS in the Giant’s Causeway Stakes where he ran third. Last year she ran in the Caress and finished second running one of the best races of her career.

ROBIN SPARKLES a four year old mare, has not finished worse than second since her first career race. She has some pedigree as the daughter of ELUSIVE QUALITY. In her last eight races, she has won six of them and finished second in the other two. Back in April of 2021, she bested CARAVEL in a 6F Sprint at Belmont where she took second and CARAVEL took third. She has alternated between the turf and dirt during her career but returns to a turf sprint race here where she’s had the most success.

FLOWER POINT, is a five year old mare who is a three time starter in 2021. In his three starts this year he has two fifth place finishes and one win. He won his last time out in an 7F Allowance Race at Belmont. He actually faced ROBIN SPARKLES in a 6F Sprint at Belmont on April 30, 2021. In that race, ROBIN SPARLES would run second and FLOWER POINT would finish fifth as previously mentioned. So far in 2021, he hasn’t run as well as he previously has. His speed figures are not what they used to be and have dropped off. In that last race he won, he ran one of the speed figures in his career so we’ll see if he can follow it up here with an equally impressive performance. He does come from some solid pedigree as the son of POINT OF ENTRY.

TASS, is coming off a bad race where he/she broke late and was never in it. She’s a five year old mare that doesn’t have the class to compete in this race. This will also be her first race this year with her last race coming on September 3rd, 2020.

IN GOOD SPIRITS, a four year old mare who has eleven starts in her career. She’s coming off a bit of a layoff with her last race coming back in April. In that race she stalked the pace but never really kicked down the stretch. Prior to that race, she won an AOC at  Fair Grounds. She has some pedigree as the daughter of GHOSTZAPPER who earned over $3,000,000 plus in his career.

 

Race Preview:

This is a two horse races, as indicated by the odds. ROBIN SPARKLES is a front runner coming off the best race in her career, running an Equibase speed figure of 108. CARAVEL likes to run off the pace a bit, then pull away down the stretch.  She doesn’t have the speed as ROBIN SPARKLES and may not be able to close on her if the pace is right. JAKARTA is going to a horse that challenges ROBIN SPARKELS for the lead, and has the speed to do so. If both these horses, go out too fast trying to establish the lead, it may open the race up for some late speed. One of those horses that may take advantage of this is FLOWER POINT. In her last race she came rallied from 8 back to win.  IN GOOD SPIRITS will try to hang with CARAVEL off the pace but, I don’t know if she has the ability to win this race given the class of horses here. A year ago, she had the speed needed to compete in this race, but we haven’t seen that speed this year. TASS’s role in this race could be summed up as a potential agent of chaos. She is a front runner that could press the pace with the horses mentioned prior, opening it up for closers/off the pace horses.

Front Runners: ROBIN SPARKLES, JAKARTA, TASS

Off the Pace: CARAVEL, IN GOOD SPIRITS

Closers: FLOWER POINT

 

Picks:

WIN: (1) CARAVEL

EXACTA: 1/ 2, 4, 6  

Again not much value in this race but I think it sets up well for CARAVEL. She’ll be able to sit off the pace and let the front runner’s battle it out. She has the closing speed to chase down everyone of those horses, and should do it here. Hopefully JAKARTA who has run well at Saratoga before has a similar performance and can grab second. IN GOOD SPIRITS should also benefit from the fast pace and close well with CARAVEL.

 

It’s looking like a chalky day at the Spa on Saturday given the gap in talent.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Alabama Crimson Tide 2021 Outlook and Analysis

By
Nick Hub
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Nov 23, 2019; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban cheers on his players during warmups before the start of their game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Roll tide, literally.  The Crimson Tide have rolled into the SEC championship six out of the past nine seasons while winning all six appearances. Nevertheless, it has been a decade since Alabama has won back-to-back National Championships. Nick Saban leads the defending champions for his 15th year as the Crimson Tide head coach.  However, he will have to get some new coordinators and players up to speed.  The potent Bama offense from a year ago only returns 3 starters and is returning 8 on a defense that looks to improve.

The Crimson tide lost their quarterback, workhorse running back, top two receivers, starting tight end, 3 offensive linemen and four offensive assistant coaches.  Former Penn State and Houston Texans head coach, Bill O’Brien takes over as offensive coordinator with a task to fill 8 positions on the offensive side of the ball.  The former five-star quarterback, Bryce Young, is expected to take the reins on offense with returning starter, John Metchie III, most likely being his go-to target after a year where he almost hit 1,000 yards receiving.  Metchie III is definitely a breakout candidate this season and does it really matter who is starting at running back each year?  It seems the running back position is easily filled each season and same goes for this year with senior Brian Robinson Jr. ready to take over as the featured back.  He averaged 5.3 yards per rush in a supporting roll last season.  Bama will be looking to replace 3 offensive linemen and it shouldn’t be very hard to do as they have sixth-year senior Chris Owens returning as one of the new linemen and recruited the top 2 tackles and the #2 guard in the 2021 class.

Pete Golding will be back as defensive coordinator for his third year and will have 8 returning starters to work with.  The Crimson Tide leaned on the offense last season but they most likely won’t be able to do that this year as the defense will look to take a step forward.  It is scary to think that the Tide has five returning defense linemen who all contributed in prominent roles last season and linebacker could be Alabama’s best position.  They will be led by LB Christian Harris who broke out last season with 79 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 2020. Additionally, rising star LB Will Anderson Jr. returns after starting as a true freshman and was second on the team with seven sacks a year ago.  LB Christopher Allen is worth mentioning after sacking the opposing quarterback five times last season and LB Henry To’o To’o transfers in from Tennessee. After losing their top cornerback to the NFL draft, the secondary could be the deepest position on the team.  There are too many to mention but should be led by sophomore Malachi Moore and junior safety Jordan Battle.  Moore led the team with three interceptions and had 44 tackles while Battle was third on the team in tackles (66) and took a pick to the house in their blowout win versus Kentucky.

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MLB Picks and Predictions – July 22, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Detroit Tigers players high-fiving after a run.

 

It’s a smaller slate of MLB action today, which is kind of nice since that gives us more space to take a deep dive into these games. We nailed 2 out of 3 of our free picks yesterday, making me 15-5 since the All-Star break in major league bets. Hoping for more of the same, here are my favorite picks and predictions for your Thursday slate:

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Tigers (-130), 2 units: When we see the 2021 version of Mike Foltynewicz (5.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 102 innings) on the mound, it’s almost an automatic fade. That’s even more true with the direction these two teams are headed. Foltynewicz and the flailing Rangers take the field against the Tigers for one more game to close their regular season series today, a battle owned by Detroit. The Tigers have looked sensational heading out of the All-Star break. Out-scoring their opponents 34-7 over their last 5 games to start the second half of the season and showing off some of the best young pitchers in baseball, the Tigers are suddenly in the heat of the AL Central playoff race after winning 6 straight, itching closer to that .500 mark. They’ve also beaten Texas in 3 straight games and own a 5-1 series lead heading into today’s game at Comerica Park. Reliever Tyler Alexander (4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 43 innings) takes the mound for Detroit Thursday and although his numbers haven’t always been sensational in his limited role, his arm is fresher than most pitchers and he should be able to limit a pedestrian Texas offense. In his most recent outing, Alexander permitted 2 runs in just 3.1 innings against Minnesota. Historically he bounces back with more command after a disappointing performance so I expect a more polished version from the leftie today. I expect no such thing from Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz is only regressing as the season trudges on, allowing a staggering 38 runs over 39.1 innings in June and July. Behind Miguel Cabrera’s recent explosion (7 RBIs in the last 4 contests), a red-hot offense and a group of pitchers that can out-class many a MLB lineup, I’m taking the Tigers to accumulate another win against the free-falling Rangers.

Phillies (+125), 1.5 units: A quick glance at the numbers and you might be tempted to ride Charlie Morton (3.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 105 innings) today but I say not so fast my friends, not so fast. Sure Atlanta still has Freeman and a very solid overall roster, they’re not without hope to make the playoffs, but missing Acuna Jr. adds an element of inconsistency to their offense. The Phillies, on the other hand, are getting healthy at the right time. Harper, Segura, Gregorius, Hoskins, McCutchen– all of Philadelphia’s integral playmakers are poised for a big second half of the season and a big game at home against their NL East rival. Phillies’ starter Matt Moore (5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP over 36 innings) leaves a lot to be desired but he’s consistent lately if nothing else, allowing only 2 runs or less in his last 4 starts. In front of their fans the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games against Atlanta and of course, all of those competitions had Acuna Jr. in the mix. I sense a solid enough showing from Matt Moore today and an offense ready to explode at Citizens Bank Park– I’m on a Philly win.

Giants first 5 +0.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Giants continue to hang with and at times out-class the reigning champs in Los Angeles, stealing another game Wednesday night as they held LAD to only 2 runs. Today the undervalued NL West leaders are starting one of their best throwers in Anthony DeSclafani (2.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 113.1 innings). DeSclafani permitted a rare 3 runs in his first outing after the All-Star break to the improving Cardinals and will look to redeem his performance tonight against San Francisco’s #1 foe. In short, I trust the 31 year old righty, who still owns an exceptional 81.2% LOB rate and flexes 8.18 K/9 innings. The Dodgers send out Walker Buehler (2.37 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 121.1 innings) Thursday, who’s been as equally dominant as DeSclafani, and he boasts even more impressive xERA and xFIP marks and slightly better strikeout and LOB rates. In what should be a battle of aces, the Dodgers and Giants have played very evenly in this most recent series. Both teams have performed well on offense in spurts and, predictably, the Giants continue to ride an excellent rotation to stack up wins. Combined with their superb ability to game-plan and out-coach their opponent, I’m wagering that DeSclafani can hang with LAD in the first half of this contest. As the bullpens thin and the Giants become a tad more vulnerable to the big-hitting lineup of the home team, I just like the full game a little less. Though, make no mistake about it, San Francisco could easily knab another victory tonight.

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Rob Vinciletti: Thursday MLS Soccer Pick and Preview Philadelphia vs Orlando

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Thursday 16-0 American League Game Of The Month Headlines Thursday card. MLS Soccer Play below.

The MLS Soccer Comp Play is on Orlando City over Philadelphia at 7:30 eastern. Orlando City has lost only one of their last six home games and they will have a big ground game advantage in the middle and they have four clean sheets in those games. Orlando can skip over Philadelphia in the standings and will be all out here for the 3 points. Philadelphia is winless in the last 4 road and comes in off a home win. Both teams are evenly matched. However we should see a top level effort to Orlando. Look for them to pick up the three points. On Thursday the lead play is the 16-0 American League Play of the Month. See us on facebook to Jump on and dominate on the Diamond. For the MLS Play. Go with Orlando. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Alan Cashman’s Wednesday MLB @TheCashmanwins

By
Alan Cashman
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MLB
San Francisco at LA Dodgers 10:10 pm
Webb vs Urias

PICK: SF +145 LEAN
PICK: SF Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN

I’m not going crazy here against Urias but there are some things here that warrant going with Giants as dogs tonight.

Webb allowed 1 run in 5 IP in last start at LA on 5/29, allowed 2 runs or less in his 2 starts career at LA .
Webb 3.49 ERA in night games this season
Webb allowed 2 runs or less in each of last 5 starts
SF batting .312 last 10 games vs LHP
SF 16-5 last 21 WED games

LA bullpen 4.75 ERA last 10 games
SF roster batting .316 vs Urias
SF has scored 11, 5 and 10 runs in their last 3 games Urias has started against them
Urias allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 7 starts

Follow on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Wednesday July 21st

By
Nick Hub
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The Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up their two-game interleague set Wednesday afternoon at American Family Field. Righty Brad Keller will get the nod for the Royals. He is 6-9 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.76 WHIP across 95 IP in 19 starts.  However, he has gone 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA across 14 innings in two July starts.  Left-hander Eric Lauer will step to the mound for the Brewers. He is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 56 1/3 IP spanning nine starts and three relief appearances. Lauer has recorded three straight quality starts and has lowered his ERA from 5.21 to 3.83 as a result of the excellent performances, yielding just 2 earned runs and 11 hits across the past 18 1/3 innings.  The Brewers rank 21st in the league in runs scored at home while the Royals own the 3rd worst runs averaged on the road this season.  If we break it down to the first five innings, we are looking at Milwaukee scoring the 3rd least amount of runs at home (2.16) and the Royals are only averaging 2 runs in the first 5 innings on the road.  The Brewcrew, also, rank 29th in wOBA, have the worst batting average and have the lowest amount of hits on the season in their first 5 innings.  Additionally, Kansas City owns a 24th ranked weighted on base average this season in the first five innings.  We would play full game but I don’t trust the Royals bullpen to cooperate.  Take F5 Under 5 runs

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2021 NFL Preseason thoughts from Las Vegas Cris & Kiev O’Neil

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Las Vegas Cris @LasVegasCris and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev discuss betting the NFL and do a quick few sentence run down on each team!

AFC West 2021 Season Preview & Win Totals – Sports Investing

By
Kiev O'Neil
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AFC West – I think that we found out a few things from this division last year.  Kansas City is still a great team and a deserving favorite, but it’s hard to repeat another Super bowl win in consecutive years.  The Raiders can’t and may not get over the hump.  The LA Chargers were 100% correct in drafting Justin Herbert as well being correct in firing coach Lance Lynn, and Drew Lock for the Denver Broncos is not a franchise quarterback.   The AFC West plays the AFC North and the NFC East this year which is what I would call medium in general but the schedules of these teams individually will have some pretty big differences this year with the Raiders having one of the hardest schedules in the NFL while the Broncos have one of the easiest in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs – Vegas Win Total – 12.5 juiced to the under -125

Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 8

Schedule – Medium hard – At large vs Green Bay, vs Buffalo, @ Tennessee

Key losses: LT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, CB Breshard Breeland

Key additions: LT Orlando Brown, G Joe Thuney, DT Jarren Reed, RB Damien Williams

Key draft picks: LB Nick Bolton, C Creed Humphrey and a bunch of Meh

Summary:  The Chiefs made it all the way last year and lost to Tampa Bay.  Part of that was due to their offensive line woes due to injuries and age but they fixed some of that in the offseason shedding Erik Fisher and trading their first round pick for left tackle Orlando Brown and paying big bucks for Guard Joe Thuney who was extracted from the Patriots.  I think that the Chiefs are still a bit weaker at right tackle from resigning Mike Remmers who was awful in the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs also lost some depth at cornerback to free agency and I really don’t like the lack of effort to replace that.   Either way, the offensive line should improve and this team still should have the best offense in the league.  It’s the defense that worries me more from a depth perspective and we need to see if it holds up.   The Frank Clark gun incident certianly didn’t do this team any favors.  My number is 13.37 wins so I think that this team has the best chance to get the number 1 seed in the AFC.   I know… Shocking right?

My Number: 13.37

Action – Lean Over

2.  Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas Win Total – 7

Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating:  -1

Schedule – Hard – At large vs Chicago, vs Miami, @ Indianapolis

Key losses: WR Nelson Agholor, RB Devonte Booker, DE Takarist McKinnley, RT Trent Brown, C Rodney Hudson, G Gabe Jackson, FS Lamarcus Joyner, DE Vic Beasley

Key additions: DE Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyon Drake, WR John Brown, DE Solomon Thomas, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Casey Hayward

Key draft picks: T Alex Leatherwood, S Trevon Moehrig, Edge Malcomb Koonce, S Divine Diablo

Summary:  Lots of people are pretty low on the Raiders and it really feels like a bunch of people who are trying to find a reason to bash them to bet the under.  Maybe they are Gruden haters?  Maybe they are Derek Carr non-believers.  Who knows?  The biggest things that I am hearing in the marketplace is that the Raiders got rid of their stud right tackle in Trent Brown along with Center Rodney Hutson and Guard Gabe Brown.   At first I thought that this was pretty bad, but this team did have some depth at offensive line, and some younger guys will have to step up.  First round draft pick of the 2018 draft Kolton Miller will be left tackle and this year’s first round pick from Alabama in Alex Leatherwood will have to shed the growing pains quick.  Could it happen?   Maybe, but they also need guard Richie Incognito to keep his head out of his ass.   It looks bad that the Raiders lost their top WR in Nelson Agholor but they due have a lot of depth there with the signings of John Brown and Willie Snead.  Remember the narrative in 2019 about the raiders in how they had to travel over 32,000 miles and they will go under their season win total because of it?   How did that work out?   I am not as low as some people are on this team but looking at their schedule and potential non-home field advantage in Las Vegas, I can’t imagine looking at the over.   No Play

My Number:  7.24 wins

Action – Lean Under

3. Los Angeles Chargers – Vegas Win Total: 9 Juiced to the over -150

Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 0

Schedule – Medium – At large vs Minnesota, vs New England, @ Houston

Key losses – Coach Anthony Lynn, TE Hunter Henry, S Rayshawn Jenkins, ILB Denzel Perryman, OLB Melvin Engram, C Mike Pouncey, G Trei Turner

Key additions: Coach Brandon Staley, OC Joe Lombardi, C Corey Linsley, RT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, G Oday Aboushi

Key draft picks: T Rayshawn Slater, CB Asante Samuel JR and a bunch of dudes.

Summary:  Justin Herbert turned out to be a great QB pick who was selected 3rd in the 2020 draft.  The Chargers under 8 wins last year was our biggest bet and I was happy that it cashed, but I am not so sure that I want to go under this year with a new defensive minded coach like Brandon Staley and a very experienced coach calling the plays in the Sean Payton Tree.  I think those were some great moves.  Anthony Lynn did not know how to manage the clock in games, and he was very poor from a strategic aspect in NFL football.  This team revamped their offensive line by signing Packers and Steelers guys and drafting one of the top prospects in the league in Rashawn Slater who was the only guy who somewhat handled Chase Young in college.  That is a smart move being that both of the Packers and Steeler’s offensive lines have been great over the past 5 or so years. In saying that, this Charger team shed a lot of weight getting rid of some X stars that could never stay all that healthy in Melvin Engram and Hunter Henry.   The Chargers won 7 games last year but there is an asterisk by that last game due to Kansas City benching their starters for the playoffs.   This Chargers team was pretty injured last year ranking 6th in total injuries and I think that they could have a great season and push KC a bit.  I have them to take 2nd in the division.

My Number:  9.33 wins

Action – No Play

4.  Denver Broncos – Vegas Season Win total – 8.5 juiced to the over -140

Denver Broncos Power Rating – -2.25

Schedule – Easy – At large games vs Detroit, vs New York Jets, @ Jacksonville

Key losses: DT Jurrell Casey, TE Nick Vannett, CB AJ Bouye, OLB Jeremiah Attaochu, RT Juwan James, RB Phillip Lindsey

Key additions:  QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle Fuller, RB Mike Boone, DT Shamar Stephen

Key draft picks: CB Patrick Surtain, RB Javonte Williams, LB Baron Browning and a bunch of smaller names

Summary:  The defense should be good…  Well, if they can finally stop the run.  Opponents ran 130 yards per game vs Denver which was 25th worst in the league.  This Broncos team was pretty injured last year and it all started out with Courtland Sutton’s torn ACL in the very first game.  There was also a point where this team had to play a game with no quarterback and Fangio had to have Phillip Lindsey and a few other players take wild-cat snaps.  The Broncos were supposed to have one of the easiest schedules in the league last year and it ended up being one of the hardest due to teams like the Chargers, Dolphins and Raiders exceeding expectations.   Denver’s Pythagorean win total adjusted for 17 games was 6.1 which wasn’t a far cry from the 5.31 adjusted wins they had achieved.   Fangio drafted a big cornerback in Patrick Surtain and he is now reunited with Kyle Fuller from the Bears and a nice addition in Ronald Darby from Philly.  My biggest concern is the offensive line which was ignored.  Denver had some bad luck with Ju’Wuan James hurting himself in non-team activities forcing the hand of Denver to cut him.   The Quarterback might be an issue because it is now obvious that Drew Lock isn’t a franchise guy and Teddy Bridgewater might make it more difficult for this team decide in which direction to go.  I don’t see an upgrade there.  My number is slightly below 8 wins so I might take a look at this under at some point.

My number:  7.96

Action – Find a good book and play this under

 

 

Rob Vinciletti: Hump Day MLB Totals Play Cubs at Cards

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Wednesday Card has the MLS Soccer Game of the Month and a Powerful MLB Card with a Platinum Supreme Top Play. MLB Comp Play below.

The MLB Comp Play for Hump Day is on the Under 8 runs in the Chicago at St. Louis game at 8:15 eastern. Nice pitching match here as the Cubs have Hendricks who always pitches well vs the Cardinals opposing Wainwright the Cards. Wainwright has better home splits this year and has pitched under in 3 of his last 4 at home and 4 of 5 vs the Cubs. Hendricks has gone under in 4 of his last 5 road starts and he has allowed 2 or less runs in 6 of his last 7 appearances. The Cards are 8 of 10 under vs a team that is .500 or less and 4 of 5 under in game 3 of a series. The Cubs have stayed under in 16 of 21 as a road dog. Look for a tight lower scoring game that stays under On Hump day we another big MLB Card led by a Platinum Supreme move one of out highest rated Plays. There is also the MLS Soccer Game of the Month and more. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports. For the Comp Play. Go Under Chicago at St. Louis

Free Premium Picks with Analysis for Tuesday July 20

By
Nick Hub
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The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday at Nationals Park.  Lefty ace Trevor Rogers will get the nod for the Marlins. He is 7-6 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 101 1/3 innings pitched across 18 starts.  RHP Paolo Espino will step to the mound tonight for the Nationals. He is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 46 IP spanning 5 starts and 16 relief appearances. The Nats are coming off their game last night with the Marlins where they put up 18 runs and I do not see them slowing down as they rank 4th in the league vs lefties in wOBA this season. Since coming out of the break, the Nats own the best wOBA, OPS, SLG, and have the most triples and homeruns in the MLB.  In addition, Rogers has seen his ERA increase each of the last 3 months so there is a good chance for continued regression.  Also, Miami ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in runs scored and ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the first five innings of their ballgames. A strength for Miami has been their excellent pen, so we will stay away and take the first 5 at plus money.  Take the Nationals F5 +110

Garrett Richards gets the ball for the Red Sox and he posts a 4.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the season.  Over his past 7 starts, the right-hander has pitched to a 7.11 ERA with opponents hitting .361 off him.  In addition to that, he has posted a horrible 1.96 WHIP in the past month. The Blue Jays have gotten to the Red Sox righty for 10 runs on 22 hits while drawing 12 walks in 16 2-3 innings of work over three starts. These bullpens are too unpredictable so well stick with the first five innings.   The Blue Jays will counter with right-hander Thomas Hatch.  This will be his first start in the majors but at AAA-Buffalo he posted a 2.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 29.1 innings pitched.  Well, triple A and the Red Sox are completely different animals, especially since their bats came alive last night scoring 13 runs and the over is 7-0 in the Blue Jays’ last seven games when facing a right-handed starter. These bullpens are too unpredictable so well stick with the first five innings.  Toronto has scored the most runs in the first five innings at home this season and also own the best wOBA on the year.  In addition to the Jays bats thriving, Boston ranks 4th in runs scored in the first five innings on the road and also rank right behind the Jays in F5 wOBA.  If you combine their F5 average runs, you get 6.81 runs per game in the 1st five innings.  So, if you combine this pitching matchup versus these bats, we love the over to hit, literally.  Take F5 Over 6.5 runs

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