We were 3-0 yesterday and we’re 12-2 betting baseball the last 4 days– enough said (and in fear of “the jinx”). Onto Tuesday!
Brewers (-157), 1.5 units: Well unfortunately this play isn’t as sexy as my 3 plus-money grabs yesterday but it’ll have to do. I thought Milwaukee was starting Eric Lauer (3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 56.1 innings) today, which meant this would be a 2 unit play, but instead they’re starting Brett Anderson (4.33 ERA, 7.33 xERA, 4.26 xFIP). Anderson should be able to do enough to hold off the ice-cold bats of Kansas City. His numbers aren’t great but at this stage in his career, he certainly has enough experience and confidence to punk a Royals team that just got absolutely waxed by Baltimore. Added to that angle is my desire to fade Mike Minor (5.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 106.1 innings). According to FanGraphs, Minor “has been able to keep his spin constant and his recent struggles (6.99 ERA since June 1st) are from a declining velocity. His monthly fastball velocity has gone from 91.6 mph to 91.0 to 90.5 to 90.8 and his slider from 86.3 to 85.5 to 85.4 to 84.8. His strikeout rate was 10.2 K/9 for the first two months but just 6.8 K/9 since June 1st. Nearly unrosterable at his current production.” It shows. Over his last 5 starts, Minor has given up 39 hits and 26 runs over just 26.2 innings. Now the spiraling Royals find themselves at American Family Field against a team they beat twice twice in Kansas City this year. The Brewers have revenge on their mind and I’m betting they get it today.
Marlins/Nationals No Runs in First Inning (-110), 1.5 units: I realize that Juan Soto and the Nationals show no signs of slowing down right now but I still like a quiet start to this contest. What a show they put on yesterday against Miami, though. Soto homered twice and the rest of the Washington lineup followed suit, hammering the Marlins for an 18-1 win. The Nationals are a team on my radar entering the second half of the season. Their schedule is very accommodating and their bats are heating up. And if even Jon Lester is going to command the mound like he did Monday, the Nats could be a real problem in the National League as we near the fall. All that aside, the booming offense we saw yesterday might not have the same opportunities in this matchup. Tonight, Marlins ace Trevor Rogers (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 101.1 innings) squares off against Washington’s Paolo Espino (3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 46 innings). Espino is a long time minor-league thrower who at 34 is finally getting a shot to prove he can hang with the big boys. And he may just have what it takes. Espino has gotten obliterated so far in July, permitting 13 hits and 9 runs in just 10.1 innings, but I’m not bothered by it. The Padres came out of the break pissed off (as they should be after how they finished the 1st half) and the Giants and Dodgers are the class of the NL. Many a pitcher has been eaten alive by those crews. Espino is facing a red-hot Nationals team, sure, but their hitting can only drop off after yesterday’s outing. I like the under 9 (-110) in this game but I like a first inning calm even more.
Rockies -1.5 (EVEN), 2 units: This is a great setup for Colorado. Since they’re getting a bit overpriced now that the books have caught up and realize they’re an actual threat at home, I don’t like the moneyline number (-180). Fortunately when you play at Coors Field, most games finish by margin anyway. German Marquez (3.36 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 114 Ks over 112.1 innings) and I have a long and volatile relationship. Last year I was high on him and thought he could have a true breakout year. That didn’t really happen. This year I’ve proceeded with caution and he finally seems to be settling into his own. Figures. Now I’m ready to play on him again so let’s see what happens. I hate to think that Chris Farley’s support of German Marquez means he’ll start to suck but, in the superstitious world of sports gambling, one has to wonder. The real startling thing about Marquez is that he’s playing even better at home. The Rockies aren’t the only offense that enjoys slugging in the mile-high city. Many a pitcher has succumbed to the thin air of Denver but somehow, Marquez has kept batters in check. Over his last 5 starts at home, Marquez has only allowed 4 runs over 34 innings. That’s pretty tremendous. While he’s probably due for some negative regression, his opponent today is Marco Gonzalez (1-5, 5.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 56.2 innings). Gonzalez has allowed 19 runs over his last 5 starts (23.4 innings) and shows little signs of improvement. The Rockies just got bested by the NL-elite Dodgers, at home, and now they see an appetizing foe awaiting the slaughter on their home field. I’m on the Rockies by margin.
The Brewers are “So hot right now” and this line is a head scratcher. Mike Minor is pitching for Kansas city who has a 4.36 FIP and 1.32 WHIP vs Brett Anderson who has a 4.67 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Advantage Kansas City right? Not if you look at the fact that Anderson is 3.85 FIP at home and Minor is a 4.45 FIP on the road. Milwaukee’s Bullpen ranks better at 17th FIP to 27th for Kansas City respectively. The Brewers have been hitting the ball well with a .307 wOBA to Kansas Cities .302 Weighted On Base Average. Did I mention that the Brewers are at home? Take Milwaukee and I also hear another game is going on there tonight.
In what has been an exciting NBA Finals series, we are set for game 6 at Fiserv Forum between the Phenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks for what could be an elimination game. These offenses couldn’t be stopped in Game 5, as the Suns shot 55.2 percent from the floor and the Bucks shot 57.5 percent. The third quarter explosion by Milwaukee really changed things for total bettors, as the Bucks weren’t missing shots and it forced the Suns to pick up the pace just to try to keep up. In a Game 6 in which Phoenix will be fighting for its life, look for things to be a bit more intense. The Suns know that they need to play a lot harder in order to get back in this series. Milwaukee is looking to win their second NBA Championship and first since 1971. Meanwhile, the Suns have their backs against the wall and must win to survive and force a Game 7 in Phoenix. The public sees a total of 242 points scored in the last game and says this has to go over. However, this recency bias may provide a buy low under opportunity. Over the past decade, playoff unders in Games 6 and 7 have cashed at roughly a 58% clip. This is often due to tired legs, a greater emphasis on defense and the importance and pressure of an elimination game. Additionally, it seems like everyone is on the Bucks tonight to win the championship which makes me play contrarian and lean towards the Suns. However, the play tonight will be on the total.
Illinois (+25000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 3.5 wins)
Head Coach Brent Bielema is back in college football taking over for Lovie Smith, who was fired during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. When he took over in December, he recruited 21 super seniors to stay for their additional year due to COVID-19. Belilema and his experience staff have their work cut out this season as they try to revamp an offense that averaged only 20.1 PPG and a defense that allowed 34.9 PPG.
Bielema’s offenses have been built around running the ball effectively behind strong offensive lines and a pro- style quarterback. The Illini will depend on veteran OT’s Vederian Lowe and Alex Palczewski to anker the edges of the O-line with Center Doug Kremer to man the middle between 2 new starting guards. RB Chase Brown was the leading rusher for Illinois in 2020 and expects to duplicate that effort this coming season. The big question mark for the Fighting Illini is their receiving corps who lost their top receiver to the NFL draft and their 2nd leading receiver last year was TE Daniel Barker who only pulled in 19 receptions for 268 yards.
Ryan Walters comes into his first season as Illinois defensive coordinator and will try to revitalize a defense that hasn’t finished better than 10th in the Big Ten in total defense since 2015. Though the starters are experienced, depth remains an issue at most positions, particularly at cornerback and outside linebacker. The strength of this defense is senior linebacker Jake Hansen, who led the team with 68 tackles, had 2.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. A breakout candidate for this side of the ball is senior defensive lineman Roderick Perry, who did not struggle like others did against elite talent.
I don’t see the Illini winning more than 2 or 3 games in 2021. Take UNDER 3.5 wins.
Indiana (+2000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7.5 wins)
Head coach Tom Allen has this club turned around after an excellent 2020 season beating #7 Penn State, #23 Michigan, and #18 Wisconsin. They gave the powerhouse of the Big Ten, Ohio State, a hell of a game losing 42-35 at the Horseshoe. Indiana ended the year ranked #12 and will have 18 starters returning from that team. Now they go from underdogs to favorites in games. Time will tell how they handle the expectations.
The question on offense leading into the season will be if Michael Penix Jr. is healthy enough to play. He is coming off a midseason ACL injury last season and the expectations are that he will be ready for the opener. Leading the receiving corps will be veteran WR Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot. The Hosiers brought in 2 more veteran receivers when DJ Mathews Jr. (Florida St) and Camron Buckley (Texas A&M) transferred onto campus. There will be focus to improve the offensive line play and returning 4 of the starters will help that. They also will be replacing their workhorse running back from last season and most likely candidate will be junior RB Sampson James.
Indiana’s defense was definitely the strength of the team last season as they ranked 19th in PPG and 10th in turnover margin. The defense returns 8 starters headlined by senior LB Micah McFadden who led the team in tackles and sacks last season. They are thrilled by getting Ole Miss transfer, Ryder Anderson and he is slated to start at DE. The secondary should also be improved with LB/DB Marcelino McCrary-Ball returning after having to sit out last season with an injury. He was a starter his first 3 seasons.
I like this team a lot and have them winning the East and playing Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. Take Indiana to go OVER 7.5 wins AND to WIN the Big Ten
Iowa (+900 to win the Big Ten, O/U 8.5 wins)
The Hawkeyes started off slow last season losing the first 2 games but followed that up with 6 straight wins. They were the best team in the West but their early loss to Northwestern hurt their chances of playing for a title.
In one of their highest scoring seasons, the Hawkeyes averaged 31.8 PPG which was 40th in the nation. They will have to replace a decent number of starters, however. Iowa will return only 5 starters including starting QB Spencer Petras and 1st Team All-Big Ten RB Tyler Goodson. At tight end, Sam LaPorta is the latest in a long tradition of great tight ends at Iowa. He led the team last season with 27 receptions and will most likely need to do the same this season with inexperienced receivers. The Hawkeyes will be moving or replacing several positions on the offensive line but the one constant will be C Tyler Linderbaum, who looks like a future 1st round draft pick.
On defense, the Hawkeyes held their opponents to just 4.3 YPP, which led the nation. They also allowed only 16 points per game which was 6th best. However, the defensive line only returns one starter, Zach VanValkenburg, and they will have to piece together the rest. The line will be inexperienced but the opposite goes for the back 7 where they return all but one player and will be led by LB Jack Campbell and S Dane Belton.
I have the Hawkeyes winning 7 or 8 games in 2021. Take UNDER 8.5 wins
Maryland (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 5.5 wins)
The Terrapins come into 2021 after a pandemic latened season going 2-3 to close out the season. Head Coach Mike Locksley has recruited a top 20 class coming into this season and will be returning 19 starters this year.
Taulia Tagovailoa returns to what was a below average offense a year ago by only putting up 23.6 PPG. Other than Tagovailoa, the offense returns 7 starters highlighted by WR Dontay Demus Jr who led the team last season with 24 catches ,365 yards and 4 touchdowns. Bruiser RB Tayon Fleep-Davis should get the bulk of the carries this season and will be running behind an offensive line with 2 new starters.
The defense struggled last season, especially while trying to stop the run while giving up, a 115th ranked, 230 YPG. Although they will need to make some changes and improve, DC Brian Stewart will be working with 9 starters from last season. Their top recruit and #1 inside linebacker in the nation, Terrance Lewis, will be a plug and play for this defense. The clear strengths of the defense are the safeties, All-Big Ten honorable mention Nick Cross and spring MVP Jordan Mosley.
The Terps should have 3 wins in their first 4 games, but it gets pretty tough after that. 5.5 wins looks to be right on. I’m gonna PASS on this one.
Michigan (+2500 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7.5 wins)
After another disappointing season, Jim Harbaugh returns for his 7th season as the Wolverines head coach. Michigan ended the season 2-4 and had their last 3 games cancelled due to the pandemic. The biggest change this season will be that the Wolverines coaching staff will be without long time DC Don Brown.
There are a lot of unknowns at the quarterback position as it looks like junior Cade McNamara is set to start. He could have some competition from former 5-star freshman JJ McCarthy and Texas Tech transfer Alan Bowman. The Wolverines will return leading rusher Hassan Haskins and top 2 receivers, Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson. The strength of the offense will be the offensive line who has every starter back and led the Big Ten a year ago in fewest sacks allowed.
Although there are 9 returning starters on defense, the Wolverines need an overhaul on this side of the ball. A unit that is typically one of the best in the nation, fell to 95th by allowing 34.5 PPG. In saying that, new DC Mike McDonald does have some players to build upon with experienced D-linemen Christopher Hinton and Aidan Hutchinson returning and safeties Brad Hawkins and Daxton Hill possibly the strongest position on the Wolverines.
I could see Michigan starting the season 4-0 but, like Maryland, the season gets tough after that. I have them winning 7 or 8 games in 2021. So I will PASS on this one too.
Michigan State (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 4.5 wins)
After 13 seasons season with Mark Dantonio in charge at Michigan State, the Spartans will look to new head coach Mel Tucker to get back to their winning ways. Sparty had another disappointing season last year and will look to rebound in 2021. Tucker set the tone right away when he said “this is a compete-to-play, compete -to-stay” culture. Thirty players exited the system and Tucker went right to the transfer portal to compensate.
Michigan State’s offense had a horrible year in 2020 averaging only 18 points and ranking 116th in the nation. Saying that, if they Spartans iron out the starting quarterback situation and solidify the offensive line, they could have a productive and exciting offense. Sophomore Peyton Thorne and Temple transfer, Anthony Russo will battle it out for the starting QB gig. Top receivers, Jalen Nailer and Jayden Reed, are back for their junior year. Reed is one of the top WR in the conference and Nailer has the speed to stretch the field. Transfer Kenneth Walker (Wake Forest) should get the bulk of the carries from the running back position. The offensive line should be constructed by 4 returning starters and Arkansas State transfer Jarret Horst at right tackle.
The Spartans have to replace their best players on all three levels of the defense but are returning 7 starters. However, those starters a year ago could very easily be replaced by underclassmen or transfers after a year of allowing a 100th ranked 35.1 PPG. MSU’s defensive line is the deepest and most experienced group on this side of the ball with question marks coming from the back 7. Though, Xavier Henderson looks to be the captain of the defense and will be the guy to lead this defense to success or mediocrity.
Sparty looks to be a 4 or 5 win team, so we PASS again.
Minnesota (+3000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7 wins)
2020 was not what anyone expected but especially in Minnesota where PJ Fleck went 3-4 after an impressive 2019 season when they went 11-2. Minnesota had 2 games cancelled for COVID-19 and they also played another with 33 players out. The Gophers lost WR Rashad Bateman and CB Benjamin St-Juste to the NFL in the offseason but returns 18 starters from 2020. They are one of the most experienced team in the Big Ten this coming season.
Offensive Coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. has a decent amount of talent to work with this season including an offensive line that has 160 combined starts (best in the nation), and Big Ten Running Back of the Year Mohammed Ibrahim. Veteran QB Tanner Morgan also returns for his 3rd year as Gophers starter. Morgan will have WR Chris Autman- Bell, who looks to be to new go-to receiver. The rest of the receiving corps looks to be a work in process and will need someone to step up opposite of Autman-Bell. Minnesota averaged 27.3 PPG and 391 YPG in 2020, which were both drop offs from their impressive 2019 season.
The Golden Gophers defense was the biggest downfall of the 2020 season. They will be led by freak rush end Boye Mafe who had his best season last year finishing with 27 tackles and 4.5 sacks and DB Coney Durr who led the team in passes defended. The secondary had 5 interceptions combined but not one player had more than 1. The Gophers only need to replace one starter and have some transfers coming in to boost the defense. To help Mafe on the D-line, Nyles Pinckney from Clemson and Val Martin from NC State will give them added depth in the middle of the line.
I see 8 wins a strong possibility with this squad. Take OVER 7 wins.
Nebraska (+4000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 6 wins)
Scott Frost enters year 4 as Nebraska’s head coach and will look to improve off a disappointing 3-5 season in 2020. Two of the teams top offensive players, Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale Robinson, transferred in January but Frost said he was happier about the culture for the 2021 season. He also kept all of the assistant coaches from last year which shows confidence in what they are doing in Lincoln.
Nebraska’s offense has declined each of the past 3 years, which doesn’t make Frost look like the offensive guru he was brought in to be. Adrian Martinez returns to run the offense in his senior year but he needs to clean up the turnovers to keep his job. Martinez lost 5 fumbles and threw 3 interceptions in their 8 games last year which contributed to their, 123th ranked, -11 turnover margin. NU looks to have an exciting group of receivers while the running back position looks to be thin as a true freshman, #35 RB recruit Gabe Ervin, is set to open the season as the starter. Other the receiving corps, the big guys up front should have a solid group constructed by returning starters and a top 100 recruit from 2020.
Opposite of the offense, the defense has actually improved each of the past 3 years. The Huskers defense will welcome 8 starters back from 2020 with CB Cam Taylor-Britt and LB JoJo Domann leading the way. Every key contributor on the D-line is back, all but two contributors at linebackers and the secondary only need to replace one starter. Saying that, the defense will look to improve again and has the ability to become one of the best units in the Big Ten in 2021.
This will be Frost’s 1st season above .500 and the Cornhuskers will win at least 7 games. Take OVER 6 wins
Northwestern (+5000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 6.5 wins)
Coming off an impressive 2020 season, Pat Fitzgerald will be coaching the Wildcats in his 17th season at the helm. Northwestern was in the Big Ten Championship last season and held powerhouse Ohio State to their lowest total of the year. However, the Wildcats offense was only able to score 10 points in the matchup. 2021 could be somewhat of a rebuilding year since they are only bringing back 8 starters.
Northwestern will open the season with a new starting QB for the 4th straight year as South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is the favorite to win the job. The highlight of Hilinski’s career was in 2019 when he threw for 2357 yards, 11 TDs and 5 interceptions while helping the Wildcats take down the #5 Georgia Bulldogs. RB Cam Porter led the team in rushing and he is the only skill position leading yard gainer back this season. The receiving corps will be a work in progress as will the offensive line who returns 3 starters but will have to piece together the rest.
In what was a definite strength of the Wildcats, the defense ranked 5th in the nation in points scored with only allowing 15.9 PPG. Like the offense, there will be a lot of new faces on the defense with only 3 starters returning from last season. However, there will be some talent coming back highlighted by sophomore S Brandon Joseph who was tied for most interceptions in the nation. DE Andetomiwa Adebawore and LB Chris Bergin are the other two returning starters but it is also worth mentioning DE Samdup Miller (sat out 2020) and CB AJ Hampton who will play large roles this season as they piece together the D.
I have the rebuilding Wildcats winning 6 games so take UNDER 6.5 wins.
Ohio State (-220 to win the Big Ten, O/U 11 wins)
Rinse and repeat? The Buckeyes played in the Big Ten Championship again last season beating Northwestern 22-10. They took it to Clemson in a rematch of the playoff game in 2019. However, they did fall short against Alabama in the National Championship. The Buckeyes will be replacing 10 NFL draft picks for the second straight year but the way Day and his staff recruits they shouldn’t miss a beat.
Top 2 receivers and NFL prospects, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, will be back to destroy Big Ten secondaries and RB Master Teague will be back to carry the load. The big change will come at quarterback where whoever wins the competition, and right now it looks like redshirt freshmen CJ Stroud will be the starter, still has not thrown as pass in college. TE Jeremy Ruckert will be a popular target for the new starter as he creates mismatches with his size and athleticism. The offensive line has a pair of dominate tackles as Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere returning and this will be Munford’s 4th year as starting LT.
If there was a weakness on this team last year, it was definitely the defense and specifically the pass defense. Second year offensive coordinator, Kerry Combs, will have some work to do replacing 6 starters and revamping the secondary. The Buckeyes are expected to play a 4-2-5 defense with a hybrid safety/linebacker, in which coaches call the “bullet”, taking the place of a traditional linebacker. With no surprise, the strength of this defense will be the defensive line with defensive ends, Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith standing out.
Games at Minnesota (1st game of the season), at Indiana, vs Penn State, at Nebraska, and at Michigan will all be tough games for the Buckeyes. I see them losing at least 2 of the 5 games. Take UNDER 11
Penn State (+900 to win the Big Ten, O/U 9 wins)
Coming off a disappointing 4-5 season in 2020, Head Coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions looks to rebound and improve in the competitive Big Ten Conference. PSU started the season last year with 5 straight losses and finished the season with 4 wins. They will have 18 starters returning for 2021.
Mike Yurich takes over an offense that averaged 29.8 PPG and 430.30 YPG, which ranked 37th in the nation. He comes over from Texas and in Yurich’s only year with the Longhorns, they averaged 42.7 points per game, second most in school history and 7th in the nation. In his career, Yurich’s offense averaged 6.49 yards a play. Nine starters return for the Lions on offense including QB Sean Clifford, WR Jahan Dodson and LT Rasheed Walker. Clifford is in his 3rd year as the starter and has been inconsistent and this will be his 4th offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in his 5 years at being at Penn State. Dodson enjoyed a breakout season last year and led the Big Ten in 884 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith were impressive last year as freshmen and tight ends Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson will be counted on to step up after Pat Freiermuth was drafted to the NFL. It sounds like it will be running back-by-committee with John Lovett (transfer from Baylor), Keyvone Lee and Noah Cain getting the bulk of the carries and they will be behind an offensive line with 3 returning starters. They will look to improve the 3.9 YPR and 28 sacks allowed in 2020.
Defensive coordinator Brent Pry looks to improve upon a Penn State defense that returns 7 starters. A Defense that allowed 27.7 points per game, which was the most in school history, and owned a turnover margin of -7. Of course, the defense isn’t all to blame as both sides of the ball look to improve upon that. PSU gave up a record number of points but only gave up 328.8 yards per game in 2020 which was good enough for 17th in the nation. The Nittany Lions added 3 experience transfers to this side of the ball including DE Arnold Ebiketie, who came over from Temple, is expected to start. The strength of this defense should be the secondary and they will be led by cornerback Tariq Castro-Field and safety Jaquan Brisker and might rotate as many as 6 guys back there.
I have an improved Penn State team winning 9 games so we will pass on an O/U.
Purdue (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 5 win)
After starting the 2020 season 2-0, the Boilermakers had their next game cancelled and then lost their last 4 games of the season. Head Coach Jeff Brohm will be entering his 5th year and will need to show improvement to keep him off the hot seat.
The offense that averaged 27.2 PPG and owned a 16th ranked passing game will most likely play both Jack Plummer and Aiden O’Connell at QB since it worked so well last season. Zander Horvath returns as the bell cow and leading rusher on the Boilers in 2020 but lead a running game which finished last in the Big Ten. This should be the best offensive line in Brohm’s tenure even without LT Grant Hermanns, who was drafted by the Jets, and the best player on the field should be junior wide out David Bell.
For the 3rd year in a row, Purdue will have a different defensive coordinator. Brohm brough in Brad Lamber from Marshall where he was co-coordinator/linebackers coach. First round prospect George Karaftis is back and should be motivated after being limited to only 3 games in 2020. The defensive end should be better than ever operating in a four man front. Other than Karlaftis, the Boilermakers will return 7 starters from what was a respectable defense last season ranking 56th overall in yards allowed. They will build the secondary around CB Cory Trice who looks to be the best NFL prospect in the secondary. Purdue also brought in a couple transfers that will be thrown into the mix. Will it be enough?
5 wins is exactly where I have Brohm’s squad. No play here.
Rutgers (+25000 to win the Big Ten, O/U TBD)
In his second stint, Head Coach Greg Schiano’s first season back was mediocre going 3-6, but 3 of the loses were by a touchdown or less. Something to built on. The Scarlet Knights also have 22 starters returning, which is most in the Big Ten.
Everyone on returns from an offense that was middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Noah Vedral returns as the starting QB after throwing for 61.5% last season, but don’t be surprised if freshman Evan Simon pushes him for playing time. Then there is also wildcat quarterback, Johnny Langan, who was 2nd on the team in rushing last season. RB Isaih Pacheco was the leading rusher on the team averaging 4.4 YPP and running for 515 yards in the shortened season. The receiving corps returns led by speedy Bo Melton and he is coming off a breakout season with 47 catches and six touchdowns. The offensive line is experienced and even added transfer David Nwaogwugwu (Temple), who looks to be slated for the right tackle spot.
Rutgers defense will be returning 9 starters and will be highlighted by LB Olakunle Fatukasi. The leader of the defense, Fatukasi had 101 tackles in 2020, most in the Big Ten, and earned All-Big Ten first team. Including Fatukasi, the Scarlett Knights return 9 of their top 10 tacklers from a season ago. CB Avery Young and S Christian Izien will lead the secondary and attempt to turn the ball over from the opposing offenses. Which was a strength of the defense last year owning a top 25 turnover margin (+6). Izien led the secondary with 4 pass deflections and 4 interceptions.
Rutgers total is not available as of yet but I have the Scarlett Knights improving and winning 7 games in 2021.
Wisconsin (+600 to win the Big Ten, O/U 9.5 wins)
Wisconsin started the 2020 season with 2 blowout wins and 2 cancellations. After that, it all went downhill for the Badgers, losing the next 3 and barely beating the struggling Golden Gophers in OT. Head coach Paul Cryst will have 17 starters returning and will be looking to bounce back in 2021.
With all of the challenges and setbacks in 2020, Wisconsin had its worst offense since 2004 averaging 25.1 PPG and 345.6 YPG. QB Graham Mertz returns for his 2nd year under center after completing 61% of his passes. The return of sixth year receivers, Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, can only help. Both WR’s 2020 seasons were ruined by injury. Senior tight end Jake Ferguson, a first-team All-Big Ten performer last season, has 99 career catches for 1168 yards and 10 touchdowns in his Badgers career and looks to be the best NFL prospect on the team. Freshman RB Jalen Berger looks to improve upon last season after he was the leading rusher and looks to be the primary tailback in 2021 behind an offensive line that returns 4 out of 5 starters.
In 2020, the Badgers defense led the league but only allowing 299.8 yards per game and their 17.4-point average was 9th best in the country. Eight starters return from that defense highlighted by LB Jack Sanborn and S Scott Nelson. Sanborn led the team in 2020 with 52 tackles and Nelson led the team in interceptions. Look for the Badgers defense to be tough again in 2021.
I have the Badgers winning at least 10 games and winning the West and will be in the Championship vs Indiana. However, I have the Hosiers winning the Big Ten title. Take OVER 9.5 wins.
Tuesday card has as 100% Game 6 Specific NBA Playoff Historical System and a Powerful MLB System card headlining. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:05 eastern, This is a system play against the Yankees and one of the last back from the break systems. We are playing against teams that were off on Monday and won both Saturday and Sunday while losing the Friday first game back. Since 2009 These teams are a lousy 1-7. NY has dropped 6 of 8 in game 1 of a series and 4 of 5 vs N.L. East teams. The Phillies have won 4 of 5 in game 1 of a series and 8 of 10 vs rightys. They have Nola going and while he sits with a 4.53 era he should outpitch German who has hit the rails allowing 23 runs in his last 21 innings and rarely gets out of the 4th inning. Look for the Phillies to take the opener. On Tuesday a Huge card is up backed with Powerful MLB Systems an in the NBA its a Rare Perfect Historical System that is Undefeated in game 6 of any round. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Play on Philadelphia. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports.
SU: 1-7 Plays against NY
Jul 22, 2008 box Tue away Nationals Jason Bergmann – R Giants Barry Zito – L 3-6 -3 L 0.5 O 8-8 1-0 0-3 105 8.5 9
Jul 21, 2009 box Tue home Blue Jays Brett Cecil – L Indians Cliff Lee – L 1-2 -1 L -6.0 U 7-9 1-0 1-1 110 9.0 9
Jul 22, 2014 box Tue away Padres Eric Stults – L Cubs Kyle Hendricks – R 0-6 -6 L -3.5 U 5-11 0-1 0-6 120 9.5 9
Jul 21, 2015 box Tue home Athletics Kendall Graveman – R Blue Jays Mark Buehrle – L 1-7 -6 L 0.5 O 8-10 0-1 0-6 100 7.5 9
Jul 21, 2015 box Tue away Indians Danny Salazar – R Brewers Matt Garza – R 1-8 -7 L 1.0 O 9-9 1-0 0-7 -120 8.0 9
Jul 21, 2015 box Tue away Orioles Wei Yin Chen – L Yankees Nathan Eovaldi – R 2-3 -1 L -3.5 U 7-11 0-0 0-2 110 8.5 9
Jul 19, 2016 box Tue home Diamondbacks Zack Godley – R Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez – R 1-5 -4 L -3.0 U 6-8 2-0 1-4 165 9.0 9
Jul 16, 2019 box Tue away Mets Steven Matz – L Twins Michael Pineda – R 3-2 1 W -5.5 U 7-8 0-1 2-0 155 10.5 9
Jul 20, 2021 box Tue home Yankees Domingo German – R Phillies Aaron Nola – R
In the last major of the year, Colin Morikawa has won the Claret Jug. Louie Oosthuizen led The Open for the first three rounds but, failed to capture the title after posting a +1 on Sunday. Morikawa is now the “Champion Golfer of the Year” becoming the first men’s golfer in history to win his debut at two separate major events. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he also became just the eighth golfer ever to win two majors before the age of 25. Jordan Spieth wound up finishing second with Louie Oosthuizen and Jon Rahm tied for third. We finished the week -0.58 Units, making our total for the year +4.6 Units.
The 3M Open will be at full capacity after last years tournament was unable to have fans due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The PGA Tour has officially eliminated testing after the British Open so we will not see anything like we saw at the Memorial. In that tournament Jon Rahm was leading by six strokes headed into the final round before being forced to withdraw after a positive test.
The 3M Open was inaugurated in 2019. Prior to that, TPC Twin Cities hosted the 3M Championship which was a Champions tour event from 1993-2008. The 3M Open is the PGA TOUR’s first regular stop in Minnesota in five decades. As one of the newer tournaments on the tour, they’ve taken a great approach to trying to grow the event and game. On hole 17, they added sky boxes with a goal of trying to mimic the famed rowdy par-3 16th hole at the Waste Management Open. They’re also thinking of adding a fishing pier in the middle of the course that can be used by fans. Tournament director Mike Welch is quoted as saying “What we want this to be known for is the Minnesota event of the summer” and I have to say, I think they’re on the way to making that happen. This is exactly the fan engagement that golf needs to attract a broader audience.
We also have a decent field with over twenty of the worlds top golfers will be in attendance led by Dustin Johnson, the No. 1 golfer in the world according to WGR. Michael Thompson captured the 2020 3M Open with a final round of 4-under 67. He won his second tournament on the PGA years, seven years after his first. A major key to his victory and something to keep an eye on when approaching this week, was his putting. He led the tournament in strokes gained putting with a rank of +7.275. In addition to putting, he also only had three bogeys in his four rounds. Thompson has not been in great form as of late missing the cut in two of his last three events. Another thing to keep in mind, with the favorite Dustin Johnson, is he failed to reach the weekend last year in this event, missing the cut. One player who does love this course is Matthew Wolff. Wolff won the inaugural 3M Open in 2019 where he set a course record and finished T12 in 2020. Another player who has had some success in this event is Tony Finau, he was T23 in 2019 and T3 in 2020.
Another thing to note, is that this tournament last year was not prior to The Open Championship. The closest major to this tournament was the PGA Championship which was played three weeks later. The fatigue factor may be an issue for some guys who played in all four rounds at The Open and have to fly back to the US only to play again four days later. This tournament is also the week before the Olympics, so any player who is field for the Olympics in Japan, will not be here. There is also not a PGA Tour event next week in recognition of the Olympics.
Some notable withdraws are: Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak, Brandon Grace, Seamus Power, Peter Uihlein
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 22, 2021- July 25, 2021
Location: Blaine, Minnesota, United States
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,431 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
The course was originally a sod farm that was transformed to a championship golf course by Arnold Palmer Design Co with consultation from Minnesota native, Tom Lehman. Before the inaugural tournament in 2019, the course underwent a renovation. During that renovation, they lengthened the course, narrowing fairway lines, repositioned tees and bunkers, and added more space for grandstands and spectators.
TPC Twins Cities is apart of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) a group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. TPC courses are designed for amateur golfers who want to play the courses they see the pros playing on TV.
As with most TPC layouts, this course has a fairly straight forward set up with water coming into play on most of the holes. TPC Twin Cities has four Par 3’s with two having a stroke average under par (Holes 4, 8) and having stroke average over par (Holes 13, 17). If wind is a factor, as expected Hole 8 can be more difficult with the cross wind coming into play. In terms of Par 4’s, this course has eleven of them with six having stroke average under par (Holes 1,5,10,14,15,16) and 5 having stroke average over par (Holes 2,3,7,9,11). The Par 4’s are the most critical on this course with the winner needing to capitalize on birdie opportunities. Hole 7 has had a new tee installed adding about 80 yards in length during the renovation. Even though it only is listed at 372, off the tee accuracy is key here. A lake lines the fairway on the left while the right is very tight with the out of bounds stakes close on the right. The green is also surrounded by bunkers making a difficult approach shot. Speaking of difficult approach shots, Hole 14 has one of the most challenging ones on the course. The green is close to the water that usually has a cross wind that pushes the ball in that direction. TPC Twin Cities has three Par 5’s with all three playing under stroke average under par (Holes 6,12,18). Hole 6 is a Par 5 as mentioned, that plays nearly 600 yards. While most of the long hitters can reach the green in two, it is very challenging to do so as the green is surrounded by bunkers on the right and water on the left. Hole 18 is also an interesting hole with players having to decide how risky they want to be off the tee in terms of going over the lake. As if the lake wasn’t a challenge enough, the fairway is lined with bunkers on the opposite placing an emphasis on driving accuracy here. TPC Twin Cities is generally regarded as one of the easier courses on tour, with the past two winners coming in at -21 and -19.
This course also features pure bentgrass greens which is quite unusual and will cause the ball to roll a bit quicker than players are used to. This makes calculating the distance on approach shots even more critical. TPC Twin Cities is also at 900 feet of elevation, and with thinner air, it will also cause the ball to fly a bit further. TPC Twin cities has received a lot of rain as of late, making for soft greens. Players should be able to attack the pin locations this week. We should see this years winner around -20.
In-Play/ Live Betting Angles:
If you’re looking for some in play angles, Holes 1 and 15 have the lowest stroke average for Par 4’s. Hole 12 has the lowest stroke average for Par 5’s. On those holes, you should look at betting a player for birdie or better if the odds are + money. Especially, if that player is in great form that week (approach shots/ putting well). Holes to avoid when betting on players for birdie or better are Holes 3 and 9 as they have the highest strokes average over par.
Also the past two winners have been tied for the lead heading into the final round. If you’re looking to back someone come Sunday, I would advise looking at the top of the leaderboard depending on the price.
We’ve made it to game six of the NBA Finals and it should be a real barn burner! Much to our surprise and betting chagrin, the Bucks outlasted the Suns in game five, snagging a win in Phoenix and now poised and in position to grab the grand prize if they can earn just one more victory Tuesday night. Who do I think will win and what are my best bets? See for yourself below!
Suns/Bucks over 222 (-110), 1 unit and Each team over 20.5 per QTR (+110), 1.5 units and Paul over 8.5 assists (-143), 1.5 units:
Rut row. The pressure is on the young and inexperienced Suns, and particularly their veteran leader Chris Paul, as they face possible elimination at the Fiserv Forum Tuesday night. The Suns started off Saturday’s game in near-perfect fashion. They clobbered Milwaukee 37-21 behind a roaring and raucous crowd in the opening quarter. Booker came out hot, Ayton contributed immediately, Paul found an early groove and Crowder couldn’t miss. Then they hit a wall. The Bucks put the vice-grips out on defense and suddenly Phoenix couldn’t hit a shot at the start of the second quarter. Connaughton and Portis and Middleton and Holiday all started finding a rhythm and Giannis ended the half in dominant fashion, scoring a late alley-oop layup to compound the feeling of disappointment for the home-town team and their fans. They out-scored the Suns 43-24 in the second quarter, becoming the second team in finals history to lead at halftime after trailing by at least 15 after one quarter, according to Elias Sports Bureau. It felt like the Suns expected to win and then didn’t know how to capitalize once they found themselves with a big lead. They can’t make that mistake again Tuesday.
There are multiple reasons why the Bucks have been able to redeem themselves and come back from a 2-0 deficit (something they’ve already done once in this NBA postseason against Brooklyn). First, Giannis is healthy. The Greek-freak had a scare in the Eastern Conference Finals that sent the state of Wisconsin into disarray, but it’s been all steady improvement since that near debacle. Antetokounmpo’s injury concerns are a thing of the past; it seems the basketball gods must adore the former MVP. That and the man is quite literally a physical specimen.
Secondly, the Suns simply don’t have an answer for the combination of Middleton and Antetokounmpo and when they do temporarily, other members of Milwaukee’s supporting cast have stepped up in big ways. We’ve said it since the start of this series– Phoenix has the “small ball” advantage: better shooters, quicker dribblers and passers, and better team basketball. When they’re in-sync, it’s nearly impossible to stop. But the Suns strength is also their weakness. They can’t stymie the long and able wingspans of Antetokounmpo and Middleton and Lopez once they assert dominance in the front court. One of the clearest indicators of their front court prowess, besides all the 5-10 foot buckets, is Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding. The Bucks have far out-rebounded the Suns when they have possession. That was especially true in game four where they hawked 17 compared to Phoenix’s 5. They also had an 11-8 advantage Saturday. If the Suns are going to win game six, they need to start practicing the art of boxing out the bigs.
Lastly and most importantly, the Bucks are winning because they’re experts at fast-paced offense and then even better at recovering at the other end. Watch the Bucks’ defenders after they score a quick bucket. They hustle and sprint back to the other side of the court so the Suns’ offense can’t take advantage of the energy boost. Phoenix shot 68.4% from beyond the arc in game five (the Bucks shot 50%), and still lost. They also shot 90% from the FT line (compared to Milwaukee’s 52.9%). It wasn’t enough. They need to cultivate more fluidity on offense and create opportunities to put up points, or they need to devise a better defensive game-plan to pester the Bucks’ scorers.
Take it from Jrue Holiday. After getting a bit embarrassed in the first 2 contests, Jrue has been an absolute shadow on Chris Paul, following and harassing him everywhere he goes. Paul is not his young self and the pressure of the moment has to be bearing down on him. CP3 is almost always good for a big passing game (he averages 8.9 assists per game on the season) but I think it’ll be even more prominent in game six. Expect the Suns’ leader to try and replicate some of the magical team basketball that took his team this far and to easily eclipse his assist prop. He may have no other option with the way Holiday is contesting his movement.
All that being said, even with the Suns’ need to improve their effort on defense and with the gravity of game six, I still expect another high-scoring game. While that probably favors Milwaukee’s style, I don’t think that necessarily means the Suns will lose. The Bucks have figured something out in the front court (they were 62.1% shooting through the first 3 quarters of game five) and I just don’t see Phoenix completely stifling Giannis and his crew. At the same time, the Suns still have the small-ball advantage and if they can stay in rhythm, it’ll be the Bucks struggling to keep up behind less-able shooters. I like both teams to score plenty in this game and to easily eclipse 20 points per quarter, too. I like that grab for a little + money.
Game five featured 6 ties and 6 lead changes in an absolute rollercoaster of emotions. What lies ahead in game six? We shall see. I won’t pick a side but I lean the Suns at +5. This series has been too close to predict a blowout finale for the Bucks, though I’m sure they’d want nothing more. For the purposes of this article, I’ll take the over, the Suns and Bucks to score plenty in each period of play and for Chris Paul to do more of what he does best– dish the ball to his many talented young stars. Good luck out there, peeps!
We skipped writing an article yesterday but I put out 3 free plays on Twitter and they all hit, making us 9-2 the last three days betting the majors. Let’s get more!
Red Sox (+114), 1 unit: The Blue Jays ended the 1st half of their season winning 3 of their final 5 games and it looks like the All-Star break has only done them good, having now won 3 in a row by margin against the fledgling Rangers to start the long second-half stretch. The Red Sox are in the opposite position. Boston started off great, beating their rival Yankees 4-0, only to get bested twice in the Bronx by scores of 3-1 and 9-1 in the following contests. Today the Sox continue their road trip and send out Nick Pivetta (4.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 96.1 innings). Pivetta might’ve needed the All-Star break. His numbers have been devolving as the season goes on and he just permitted 5 runs in just 4 innings last Sunday against the Phillies. While we don’t like to always back Pivetta, I think this could serve as an interesting get-right spot. The 4-year starter still has excellent velocity and solid numbers across the board and while the Blue Jays’ offense has been ablaze since last Friday, they’re due for a down-night. Ross Stripling (4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 74.2 innings) will serve as Toronto’s thrower and while his numbers are similar to Pivetta, he allows way too much hard contact (1.93 HR/9 innings) and can lose command quickly if he’s not in a groove. Conversely to the Blue Jays’ bats, Boston’s hitters are overdue for a big night. I’ll take the Red Sox, who I think are easily the better all-around team, to punk the traveling club from Canada.
Orioles first 5 (+180), 1 unit: This is a pretty simple handicap and it’s all about value. A quick look at the comparable stats between Baltimore and Tampa Bay show two evenly matched offenses– only one doesn’t take advantage of opportunities so well. While the team from Charm City is outscored 454 to 379 to the Rays in runs, the Orioles have more hits and a higher batting average than Tampa. They’ve also been beaten by the Rays 6 straight times this year. Enter the vengeful Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, (off a glorious HR derby performance) and the visiting O’s who have won 2 out of 3 since the break and have been showing a ton of confidence behind their bats. I like their chances even more with Spencer Watkins (1.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 10.1 innings) behind the mound. The first year pro has shown excellent potential in his first 2 starts. He has a sneaky arsenal of curve-ball and changeup pitches that supplement his four-seam and at 28 years old, he seems to have the intangibles (like passion, humility, work-ethic) that could equate to certified staying power in the Baltimore rotation. As a resident of Baltimore I can tell you– this town loves a blue-collar grinder mold and Watkins may be a perfect fit. Ryan Yarbrough (4.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 96.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa tonight. Yarbrough has been solid but nothing in his profile suggests we should be intimidated or that we should back away from this value play. Give me the Orioles in the first 5!
Giants (+117), 1.5 units: Do you think this series matters to San Francisco? You bet it does. All the so called “experts” and talking heads are awaiting a “return to dominance” from the Dodgers and expecting them to overtake the NL West (they’re still 1 game back). They’re also expecting Los Angeles to reassert themselves as the clear favorites to win their league and the World Series. Not so fast my friends, not so fast.
The Dodgers took the early lead in their rivalry with San Francisco, outscoring them 23-12 in 4 straight wins earlier in the season. LAD owns a 6-3 lead on the year and they won their last contest against the Giants by a score of 2-0. Kevin Gausman (1.73 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 2.57 FIP over 114.2 innings), who will start Monday, was also on the mound for that last battle. I think he’ll get his revenge tonight. The Giants’ ace and Cy Young potential needs little introduction. The 30 year old Gausman is clearly in his prime and has shown off sub 2.4 ERAs in every month. The most runs he’s allowed in a single game all year came way back in April against the Reds, who were on fire at the time and scored 5 against Gausman at Oracle Park. That’s the only time he’s allowed more than 3 runs all season and there are long stretches where he’s only allowed 0 or 1 run in May and June. We think he may stump the Dodgers like he did back on May 29 (2 hits, 0 runs over 6 innings at Dodger Stadium). The Dodgers will send out Tony Gonsolin (2.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 25.1 innings) tonight. Gonsolin has really solid stuff so far, boasting an excellent 89.4% LOB rate and only 0.71 HR/9 innings. I like the NRFI (no runs in first inning) for these two elites, but Gonsolin’s WHIP and xFIP (4.53) concern me and suggest he may be due for some negative regression. Gausman shows no such signs and he knows he needs to be a consistent and commanding thrower for San Francisco’s good fortunes to continue. I like Gausman and the Giants to start proving doubters wrong tonight.
Sunday Power Card has the ESPN Sunday night Baseball Play of the Month along with our Last game of series systems, MLS Soccer Platinum Supreme Move, Soccer Gold Cup Total of the Month and a NASCAR Top Head to Head Driver play.
The MLB Comp play is on the Under 8 runs in the Houston at Chicago game at 2:00 eastern. Top Level pitching match here with Both Rodon for the Sox and Valdez for Houston with an Era under 5. Valdez went 7 strong vs Chicago allowing 2 runs this year while Rodon allowed a single run also going 7 against Houston. He has pitched under in his last vs the Astros. Chicago has gone under in 9 of 11 vs Leftys of late, While Houston has gone under in 5 of 7 vs winning teams and 6 of 9 on the road. Look for this game to stay under today. On Sunday we have 2 Huge Soccer Plays a Platinum Supreme MLS Total early and the Gold Cup Total going late. In MLB The Sunday night ESPN Play of the Month Headlining a strong Bases card and a Powerful Head to Head Driver Play in NASCAR. See us on facebook to Jump on and End the week big. For the MLB Comp play. Go Under 8 Astros and Whitesox. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
This will be a super short edition of this article since I’m in a rush and trying to get these plays out here (instead of just Twitter). Speaking of Twitter, I have 3 other premium plays in MLB (along with NBA and UFC) if you want them FOR FREE today! Reach out to me on Twitter and let me know if you’re interested. Here are my best free plays in MLB today:
Blue Jays -2.5 (+110), 1 unit: Why not make this a super-margin bet? Kolby Allard has allowed 13 runs in his last 23 innings and the Rangers are slumping hard. Meanwhile, Toronto and their very able bats (who hit just as well against lefties) are primed at home behind Ryu, who remains solid but we think will see even better numbers in the second half of the season. I’m on the Blue Jays to win by 3+.
Athletics (-180), 1.8 units: The Athletics are just the better team, especially at home, and Quantrill seems to be regressing. The 26 year old righty (who bats left) had a horrid June, posting a putrid 7.20 ERA over 20 innings. July hasn’t treated him right so far either. Freddie Montas has his limitations and owns an average 4.83 ERA at home, but his numbers have improved in June and July and the Indians can’t find enough bats to save their lives. I’ll take Oakland at home.
Padres/Nationals over 9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Nats and Padres showed out their hitting prowess yesterday in a ridiculous 32 run outing, 24 of those courtesy of the visiting San Diego offense. Yowza. It’ll still be hot and swampy in DC today an if the rain holds off, Snell and Corbin don’t scare me away from these sluggers having another huge day.
Brewers (-135), 1.5 units: I like to fade Luis Castillo in spots like this where you would think he’s at an advantageous at home, especially against aces like Woodruff. Castillo has proven to be an unreliable “potential ace” while the Milwaukee’s star pitcher has been exceptional this year. Woodruff should be able to handle whatever semblance of offense the Reds pretend to have today; the volatility of that offense is concerning. I’m on the Brewers to take another game at Great American Ballpark, where they’re 5-2 already this year.
Giants/Cardinals under 8 (-110), 1.5 units and No Run in First Inning (-120), 2 units: The Cardinals’ surging starter Kwang Hyun Kim, whose impressive performances have crossed over into July (he’s allowed 11 hits but only 1 run in his last 18 innings pitched), will face off against the Giants’ rock-steady Anthony DeSclafani Saturday night. I like this game going under 8 and I like no runs in the first inning even more — two teams heading in opposite directions but predicated on their pitching class should come to a head tonight.
