Series Opener: First meeting between these teams this season
The Cleveland Guardians (37–36) face off against the Oakland Athletics (31–46) tonight at Sutter Health Park, with first pitch scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET. Here’s a quick breakdown of what to expect:
Probable Pitchers:
Guardians: Tanner Bibee (4–6, 3.79 ERA) — coming off a solid outing vs. Seattle with 5 IP, 2 ER.
Athletics: Jeffrey Springs (5–5, 4.52 ERA) — last pitched 6 innings vs. Kansas City, allowing 2 ER.
Key Trends:
Cleveland has won 17 of their last 20 games against Oakland.
The Guardians are 25–5 when they out-hit their opponents.
Oakland is 5–5 in their last 10, but just 14–25 at home.
Players to Watch:
Guardians: José Ramírez (.318 AVG, 13 HR, 35 RBI) continues to anchor the offense.
Athletics: Brent Rooker leads the team with 15 HR, while Jacob Wilson boasts a .359 average.
Weather:
Clear Skys. Wind blowing out to center field at 11.2 MPH. Temperature from 74 to 80 degrees.
Prediction:
I think that we must look at the total in this game as both pitchers have been roughed up a lot this season. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians has a decent ERA, but also a 4.8 FIP which isn’t good. Jeffery Springs for the A’s has also struggled with a high ERA and FIP of 4.57. The wind is blowing out in this little ballpark in Sacramento. The A’s bullpen ranks 30th in FIP, yet this team has been hitting the ball ranking 8th in wRC+. It feels to me that there will be some runs this game. Take the over.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @VegasInsider @MajorWager is back to break down the 20245 SEC! First, Kiev talks about the weekend with the US Open and a few other topics. Next, Brian comes on and the guys get right into the SEC! Will the SEC overtake the big 10? Who won the Tennessee/UCLA QB trade? Should the SEC go to 9 conference games? Then, the guys get into the SEC with previews, picks and season win totals for EVERY TEAM! After that, the guys delve into the Big 10 conference with some more Free Plays and a few gripes. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC Baku for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
The PGA Tour heads to Cromwell, Connecticut this week for the 2025 Travelers Championship, the final Signature Event of the season.
TPC River Highlands may not boast the length of some other tour stops, but it consistently delivers drama thanks to its risk-reward layout and birdie-friendly conditions. With a stacked field on hand and a winning score likely approaching 20-under par, finding the right statistical edges is key to building strong betting cards.
In this preview, we’ll break down the course setup, highlight the key stats to focus on, and reveal our favorite betting picks and values for the week. Let’s dive in.
The Travelers Championship stands as one of the most enduring and well-loved tournaments on the PGA TOUR, with roots dating back to 1952 when it debuted as the Insurance City Open at Wethersfield Country Club in Connecticut. The event moved to its current home at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell in 1984, where it has since become a staple of the TOUR’s summer schedule. Travelers assumed title sponsorship in 2007 and helped elevate the tournament into one of the TOUR’s premier events, drawing elite fields and generating strong fan support year after year.
TPC River Highlands itself has a rich history. Originally opened in 1928 as Middletown Golf Club, the course underwent a significant redesign by Pete Dye in 1984 and a later refinement by Bobby Weed in 1989. The current layout plays as a par 70 and stretches just over 6,800 yards—short by modern TOUR standards, but no less demanding. What it lacks in length, it makes up for with narrow fairways, deep rough, well-placed water hazards, and small, undulating greens. The course consistently rewards precise iron play, course management, and a hot putter.
One of the tournament’s defining features is its dramatic closing stretch. Holes 15 through 18 have played host to some of the most exciting finishes on TOUR. The driveable par-4 15th and the risk-reward par-5 13th create prime scoring chances, setting up leaderboard shakeups down the stretch. This combination of scoring opportunities and pressure-packed holes has led to unforgettable moments, including Jim Furyk’s record-setting 58 in 2016 and Jordan Spieth’s walk-off bunker hole-out to win in a playoff in 2017.
During Tuesday’s practice round at the Travelers Championship, PGA TOUR players and caddies take part in a fun tradition known as the “Umbrella at 15 ½” Challenge. This unique hole, positioned between the 15th and 16th at TPC River Highlands, features an 85-yard shot aimed at a floating 40-foot Travelers umbrella in the middle of a pond. Each participant gets just one attempt, with the closest shot earning $10,000 for the charity of their choice. While it adds a light-hearted touch to tournament week, an interesting trend has emerged—since the challenge began in 2010, no winner of the Umbrella Challenge has gone on to win the Travelers Championship in the same year.
In recent years, the Travelers Championship has been elevated to Signature Event status on the PGA TOUR, featuring a $20 million purse, a limited field, and no cut—ensuring top-tier talent all four days. It’s now firmly established as one of the marquee events of the summer and a fan favorite in the New England sports calendar.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Duration
Course
Location:
1984-Present
TPC River Highlands
Cromwell, Connecticut
1952-1983
Wethersfield Country Club
Wethersfield, Connecticut
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
2007-Present
Travelers Championship
2004-2006
Buick Championship
2003
Greater Hartford Open
1989-2002
Canon Greater Hartford Open
1985-1988
Canon Sammy Davis Jr.–Greater Hartford Open
1973-1984
Sammy Davis Jr.-Greater Hartford Open
1967-1972
Greater Hartford Open Invitational
1957-1966
Insurance City Open Invitational
1952-1956
Insurance City Open
Tournament Records:
Most Wins at Event:
4 – Billy Casper (1963, 1965, 1968, 1973)
72-Hole Record:
257, Keegan Bradley (2023)
18-Hole Record:
58, Jim Furyk (final round, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Pete Dye in 1982, TPC River Highlands features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
TPC River Highlands is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, measuring just 6,844 yards—making it the third shortest out of 44 Tour stops. The fairways are relatively narrow, ranking 12th in tightness, with an average width of 30 yards. Greens are also on the smaller side at approximately 5,000 square feet. With only 69 bunkers on the property (18th fewest on Tour), sand isn’t a major hazard this week.
The course features four Par 3s ranging from 158 to 223 yards, with two falling in the 200–225 yard range. Only one of them—No. 16—played over par last year, with a scoring average of +0.043.
No. 5, 223 Yards, Par 3: A challenging par 3 with a long carry over water to a green surrounded by bunkers. The green slopes from back to front.
No. 8, 202 Yards, Par 3: A picturesque par 3 with a pond in front and bunkers surrounding the green. Club selection is crucial due to the prevailing wind.
No. 11, 158 Yards, Par 3: A short par 3 over water to a green surrounded by bunkers. Accuracy is essential.
No. 16, 171 Yards, Par 3: This scenic 171-yard, par 3 requires a well struck mid iron to clear the forced carry over water and stop the ball on the narrow green. The green has a lot of slope in it and pin locations can be difficult. The wind can play a significant role in club selection.
TPC River Highlands also includes twelve Par 4s, seven of which fall between 400 and 450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest at 296 yards, while No. 4 stretches to 481 yards. The toughest Par 4s in 2024 were No. 4 and No. 12, both averaging 4.014 strokes.
No. 15, 296 Yards, Par 4: A drivable par 4 with a risk-reward element. One of the most exciting holes on the PGA TOUR, the 296-yard, par 4, hole No. 15 at TPC River Highlands forces players to make good decisions. There is water to the left and sand to the right. Anywhere from a 2 to 6 can be recorded on a player’s scorecard when walking off this green.
No. 17, 431 Yards, Par 4: Intimidation takes on a new meaning when standing on the tee box at No. 17. Players must fit their shot between the large lake that covers the entire right side and the difficult fairway bunker on the left. A good drive is just the first part to leaving this hole with a par. The approach shot will need to carry the water the entire way, and with any wind, club selection is of most importance. Crowds are huge on this hole because they know it can be the breaking point in the tournament.
No. 18, 444 Yards, Par 4: An absolute perfect finishing hole that allows players to make birdie if they play this par 4 well. At 444 yards, a good drive leaves a mid to short iron approach to a green encompassed by a throng of spectators.
There are just two Par 5s on the layout—No. 6 and No. 13—and both played under par last year. The easiest hole on the course was the sixth, with a scoring average of 4.577.
No. 6, 574 Yards, Par 5: The first par 5 on the course features a wide fairway but narrows near the green, which is reachable in two for long hitters. Water and bunkers protect the green.
No. 13, 523 Yards, Par 5: A reachable par 5 for long hitters. The fairway narrows near the green, which is guarded by bunkers and a steep slope at the back.
The Travelers Championship takes place at TPC River Highlands. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
TPC River Highlands
Driving Distance (Yards)
284.10
280.44
Driving Accuracy
62%
68%
GIR Percentage
66%
68%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)
29.25
28.00
Scrambling Percentage
57%
58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.49
According to DataGolf, this is the favored skill set at TPC River Highlands.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success at TPC River Highlands starts with strong tee positioning. While distance matters, accuracy is equally critical on this relatively short but tactical layout.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Luke Clanton
Kevin Yu
Rory McIlroy
Daniel Berger
Corey Conners
Ludvig Åberg
Patrick Cantlay
Sungjae Im
Maverick McNealy
Strokes Gained: Approach
A sharp iron game is essential this week. With small greens and tight targets, players must dial in their approach shots to generate birdie looks.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Sepp Straka
Shane Lowry
Viktor Hovland
Daniel Berger
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Ryan Fox
Patrick Cantlay
Bud Cauley
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
With greens averaging just 5,000 sq. ft., players will inevitably miss a few. A strong short game will be key to saving par and staying in contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sungjae Im
Keegan Bradley
Jason Day
Sam Stevens
Russell Henley
Tommy Fleetwood
Ryan Gerard
Si Woo Kim
Min Woo Lee
Mackenzie Hughes
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass & Poa Annua)
The putting surfaces are a mix of Bentgrass and Poa annua. Performance on this specific grass combo often separates contenders from the rest.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sam Burns
Matt Fitzpatrick
Aaron Rai
Xander Schauffele
Harry Hall
Brian Campbell
Harris English
Mackenzie Hughes
Sam Stevens
Scottie Scheffler
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
Two of the four Par 3s at TPC River Highlands fall in this yardage range. Solid long-iron play will be a quiet key to gaining strokes.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Viktor Hovland
Scottie Scheffler
Kevin Yu
Ryan Gerard
Mackenzie Hughes
Sam Stevens
Russell Henley
Ben Griffin
Si Woo Kim
Wyndham Clark
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
Seven of the twelve Par 4’s at TPC River Highlands range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tommy Fleetwood
Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Cantlay
Andrew Novak
Viktor Hovland
Tony Finau
Robert MacIntyre
Xander Schauffele
Harry Hall
Nick Taylor
Birdies or Better Gained
Low scores are required here—four of the last five champions have reached at least -19. Players must cash in on every opportunity.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Matti Schmid
Rory McIlroy
Justin Thomas
Luke Clanton
Viktor Hovland
Sam Burns
Akshay Bhatia
Sepp Straka
Harry Hall
Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards
Above is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Tom Kim
Gary Woodland
Lucas Glover
Sepp Straka
J.J. Spaun
Stephan Jaeger
Thomas Detry
Maverick McNealy
Keegan Bradley
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Daniel Berger
Hideki Matsuyama
Tom Kim
Scottie Scheffler
Akshay Bhatia
Shane Lowry
Ryan Fox
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Length less than 7,200 yards)
Compact layouts like this test every aspect of a player’s game. Who thrives when length isn’t the only factor?
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Ludvig Åberg
Aaron Rai
Russell Henley
Sepp Straka
Shane Lowry
Tom Kim
Strokes Gained: Total (Pete Dye)
TPC River Highlands is a Dye design—players who consistently perform on his tracks have a distinct edge.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Brian Harman
Hideki Matsuyama
Tom Hoge
Rory McIlroy
Wyndham Clark
Sepp Straka
Daniel Berger
Xander Schauffele
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the TPC River Highlands has proven to be advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (SG last 5 editions):
Patrick Cantlay
Brian Harman
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Keegan Bradley
Viktor Hovland
Joohyung Kim
Sungjae Im
Tony Finau
The Field:
The 2025 Travelers Championship will feature a field of 72 players, with 26 of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List
Aon Next 10 (projected through the U.S. Open)
Aon Swing 5 (projected through the U.S. Open)
Current Year Tournament Winners, not including Additional Events
Current FedExCup Points List (projected through the U.S. Open)
Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Scottie Scheffler (2024), Keegan Bradley (2023), Xander Schauffele (2022), Harris English (2021), Jordan Spieth (2017)
Debutants in the Field:
Alexander Noren, Jacob Bridgeman, Joe Highsmith, Luke Clanton, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Ryan Fox, Ryan Gerard
Worried about a US Open hangover for players at The Travelers? Maybe you shouldn’t.
Since the Travelers moved to the week after the US Open, four of the five winners had a Top 15 at the US Open prior to their win at TPC River Highlands…
Ranked top-10 in field for Par-5 Scoring Top-10 ranking in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green in last two months Top-10 ranking in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in last two months Ranked top-10 in field for Geens in Regulation… pic.twitter.com/0aIZh3jy0z
Will There Be a Playoff at the Travelers Championship? (Yes +350 / No -500)
Playoffs have been a frequent part of the drama at the Travelers Championship, with two of the last four editions requiring extra holes to crown a winner. The most recent came just last year, when Scottie Scheffler edged out Tom Kim in a sudden-death finish. Since the tournament moved to TPC River Highlands in 1984, there have been 14 playoffs—highlighting just how often this event comes down to the wire.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Travelers Championship? (Yes -120/ No -120)
There hasn’t been a hole-in-one at the Travelers Championship in the past two editions, with the most recent ace coming from Rory McIlroy on the 8th hole back in 2023. While TPC River Highlands does offer several scoring opportunities on its Par 3s, recent history shows that aces have been tough to come by.
Will There Be a Wire-to-Wire Winner at the Travelers Championship? (Yes +700)
Wire-to-wire winners have been extremely rare at the Travelers Championship, with only two players accomplishing the feat in tournament history. Gene Littler was the first to do it in 1959, followed by Tim Norris in 1982. It’s been over four decades since a player led from start to finish, highlighting just how difficult it is to maintain the lead all four rounds at TPC River Highlands.
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-22)
Price: 5-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler
4th
2nd
6th
17th
16th
2023: Keegan Bradley (-23)
Price:80-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Keegan Bradley
38th
7th
1st
33rd
1st
2022: Xander Schauffele (-19)
Price: 20-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Xander Schauffele
15th
8th
5th
47th
4th
2021: Harris English (-13)
Price: 45-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Harris English
9th
3rd
32nd
8th
18th
2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
Price: 30-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Dustin Johnson
46th
6th
6th
25th
4th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Scottie Scheffler
T41 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
WON – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T2 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
WON – RBC Heritage (PGA)
2023: Keegan Bradley
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T30 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T29 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T35 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T48 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
2022: Xander Schauffele
T14 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
WON – Zurich Classic (PGA)
2021: Harris English
3 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T14 – Palmetto Championship (PGA)
T64 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T13 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
T43 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
2020: Dustin Johnson
T17 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T48 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
T10 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Scottie Scheffler
2023
2022
2021
2020
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
T4
T13
T47
MC
2023: Keegan Bradley
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
MC
MC
T2
T47
T8
T25
T39
T31
T18
T29
T63
2022: Xander Schauffele
2020
2018
2017
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
T20
MC
T14
2021: Harris English
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
2013
2012
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
MDF
MC
MC
T25
T7
T43
T64
2020: Dustin Johnson
2014
2009
2008
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
TPC River Highlands
T31
WD
T34
Picks:
Outrights
Patrick Cantlay (+2200) – DraftKings
Russell Henley (+4000) – DraftKings
Cameron Young (+5000) – FanDuel
Daniel Berger (+5000) – FanDuel
Akshay Bhatia (+7000) – FanDuel
Andrew Novak (+12000) – FanDuel
Matti Schmid (+17000) – FanDuel
Top 20
Keegan Bradley (+105) – DraftKings
Best of luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @GatorBetting and on Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. I always welcome feedback—positive or constructive—so feel free to reach out!
The AFC East – When are we just going to stop betting the Jets? I am going to say now doggone it. Now! The AFC East was terrible last season minus Josh Allen. Miami once again injured themselves, and had no offense for some reason, while the Jets were an offensive & defensive mess. The Patriots were slated to be the worst team in football, yet showed some life towards the end of the season. For 2025, the AFC East plays the NFC South, and the AFC North which I would call a pretty easy draw. It gets even easier when a team is up top being that they get to play the lower tiered teams in this division. Let’s see how it all pans out.
Key additions: WR Josh Palmer, OLB Michael Hoecht, Edge Joey Bosa, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Tre’Davious White, WR Elijah Moore, CB Dane Jackson.
Key Draft Picks: CB Maxwell Hairston, DL TJ Sanders, Edge Landon Jackson, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Once again, Damar Hamlin got cheated from comeback player of the year less than two years after he cheated death. He actually played for real this year to. I’m not bitter about that at all. Anyways, the Bills last year were three zebras away from making the super bowl. Getting over the hump has to be the goal, and playing close games haven’t turned out all that well for this team. What I will say, is that this is the year, Buffalo has the easiest shot of securing the number one overall seed in the AFC. This schedule is disgustingly easy for a team of this caliber. The Bills did not lose much to free agency. Von Miller was washed, and Amari Cooper was just borrowed due to injuries. I really like what this team did in free agency. Joshua Palmer is an under-rated wide receiver, while Elijah Moore can stretch the field. James Cook is back and he will lead the way at running back as soon as his hold out ends. My biggest concerns remain at health. Josh Allen has to try and win with his arm more against an easy schedule, while Joey Bosa has to finally stay on the field for a full season. Or at least for the playoffs. I like their draft in Maxwell Hairston and cornerback and how this team beefed up that defensive line. Back to the schedule, this Bills team gets their hardest opponents in the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Ravens all at home. The sky is the limit for Buffalo and this is the year that they do it. I pick this team to win the super bowl, but so does many.
My Number: 15.08
Action– Over 11.5 -145 – 1 star (FD) – To be the number 1 seed +275 – .5 stars (FD) Bills to win Super Bowl +750 – .5 stars (FD)
Power Rating: 6.75
2.Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total:8.5 juiced to the under -160
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.95
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Indianapolis, vs LA Chargers, vs Washington (in Madrid Spain),
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: S Jevon Holland, DE Calais Campbell, G Robert Jones, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, TE Durham Smythe, DE DaShawn Hand, S Siran Neal, RB Raheem Mostert, CB Kendall Fuller, RB Jeff Wilson.
Key additions: G/C James Daniels, ILB Tyrel Dodson, QB Zach Wilson, WR Nick Westbrook, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, S Ashtyn Davis, T Larry Borom.
Whom they drafted: DL Kenneth Grant, OL Jonah Savalinaea, DL Jordan Phillips, CB Jason Marshall, QB Quinn Ewers.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins were stuck in mediocre land with a defense that somehow ranked 8th in opponent EPA, while the offense was the problem ranking 22nd. With an offensive coach like Mike McDaniel, this should be unacceptable. What’s even more unacceptable is what we have been saying for the last few years. Tua at the quarterback position is a walking timebomb. He is one concussion away from missing multiple weeks if not more. What is the Dolphins contingency plan? Zach Wilson. Well, I think that it will be Zach Wilson. Maybe Quinn Ewers upon chance steps in and rips it up like Brock Purdy did for the 49ers, but I wouldn’t exactly want to bet on that. The Dolphins lost a few running backs to free agency. I do like how they drafted some good defensive line, but there really isn’t anything exciting minus a mouthy Tyreke Hill, and a cornerback Jalen Ramsey who wants to be traded. I do not know how anyone could trust this team to get back to what they were a few years back. One thing that is good for the Dolphins, is that their schedule ranks 2nd in +11 net days rest. They do not get any team off of a bye week. All in all, I expect complete mediocrity. They will upset a few teams. Maybe even the Bills, but they will also lose some games that they shouldn’t.
My Number: 8.58 wins
Action – Lean over
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 1
3. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -120
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.95
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Las Vegas, @ Tennessee, vs NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Jerad Mayo, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB mJonathan Jones, DE Deatrich Wise, ILB Ja’whaun Bently, C David Andrews.
Key additions: Coach Mike Vrable, DT Milton Williams, WR Stefon Diggs, CB Carlton Davis, Edge Harold Landry, LB Robert Spillane, T Morgan Moses, C Garrett Bradbury, WR Mack Hollins, QB Joshua Dobbs, OLB K”Lavon Chaisson, DT Khyris Tonga, S Marcus Epps, S Jaylinn Hawkins.
Key Draft Picks: T Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams, C Jared Wilson.
Summary: The Patriots are the most hyped team in the NFL right now. Watching their season win total go up from 4 to 8.5 is really something. Let’s start with the coach. It looks like Jerad Mayo was only a placeholder for coach Mike Vrable. I honestly like Mike Vrable, and have to give the Patriots a pretty big upgrade. I also like how this team had the most money to spend in the offseason and spend they certainly did. It is also liking like quarterback Drake May will turn into the franchise guy that they all had hoped. This team upgraded at almost every position, and they had a pretty solid draft for 2025. Now for the bad. I do not like the pass catchers on this team. Stefon Diggs is going to party himself off of the boat. I don’t think that news story with the drugs in a bag was a good look for him. The other two receivers in Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas are very below average. Tight end Hunter Henry is past his prime, while backup Austin Hooper has been on a slide. I expect a great defense under new coach Mike Vrable, but I also expect this offense to struggle. We have to remember that last season, the Patriots schedule was ranked quite easy. The team did well towards the end of last year, but will that momentum continue? I have to go against the market on this one. The market putting out 8.5 wins is too much to ask. Seven wins will still be a successful season for this team. I will say though that this team will probably get better as the year goes on.
My Number: 7.45 wins
Summary: Under 8.5 for 1 star
New England Patriots Power Rating: -3.5
4. New York Jets –
Vegas win total:5.5 juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.66
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Dallas, vs Denver (in London), @ Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Robert Saleh, WR Davante Adams, CB DJ Reed, DT Javon Kinlaw, Edge Hasson Reddick, QB Aaron Rogers, T Morgan Moses, TE Tyler Conklin, DE Solomon Thomas, CB Brandin Echols, S Ashtyn Davis, G Wes Schweitzer, LB CJ Mosely, LT Tyron Smith.
Key additions: Coach Aaron Glenn, QB Justin Fields, CB Brandon Stephens, S Andre Cisco, WR Josh Reynolds, C Josh Myers, CB Kris Boyd.
Whom they drafted: T Armand Membou, TE Mason Taylor, WR Arian Smith, CB Azareye’h Thomas.
Summary: From Aaron Rogers to Justin Fields. What could go wrong? I can tell you what won’t go wrong is that I will not be betting on them again to win the division. I also will enjoy the laughter that I will have watching the Steelers face the Jets on week 1. Let’s start with the coach. Going from Robert Saleh to Aaron Glenn isn’t exactly my idea of an upgrade. Glenn was fine on the Lions as a DC, especially with all of their injuries, but I do not see him as some great coaching prospect. Going from Rogers to Justin Fields is like trading in your 10 year old corvette for a slightly used Subaru. Justin Fields is just a hybrid quarterback who can run the ball very well. I still haven’t seen him throw his way out of tough situations as he tends to lose confidence in the clutch. When teams bait him into bad situations, he turns the ball over, if not just taking a bad sack. I wish that I could say that the Jets lived on their defense last year, but that unit only ranked 21st in defensive EPA, and when the Jets played any team with a pulse, they got destroyed. New York also lost a ton of talent from the defensive side of the ball. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner are really the only big names left. This feels a lot like the Giants defense from last year. The 2025 draft wasn’t exactly sexy. I like their tackle, but no proof that Armand Membou will develop. The Jets lost much more than they have gained. The schedule shapes up ok for the Jets and they did underachieve last year with a Pythagorean win total of 6.66, but with all of the change, that number cannot really be trusted. This team might have the worst results for 2025.
My Number: 4.33
Action – Lean under
New York Jets Power Rating: -6
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Diamondbacks: Currently on a five-game home win streak, with a 35-34 overall record and 19-17 at home. They boast the third-best team slugging percentage in MLB (.449).
Padres: Holding a 38-30 overall record, they are 17-18 on the road. They have a strong 27-7 record when out-hitting opponents.
Ryan Bergert (SD): His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.34 suggests his ERA is misleadingly low due to an unsustainable 96% left-on-base rate. He has walked six batters and struck out eight, indicating potential regression.
Zac Gallen (ARI): His FIP of 4.90 aligns closely with his ERA, showing that his struggles are not just bad luck but a result of inconsistent pitching. His strikeout rate remains solid, but he has been vulnerable to hard contact.
Bullpen Comparison
Padres: Ranked third in MLB with a 3.81 ERA, their bullpen has been a key factor in close games.
Diamondbacks: Their bullpen has been less reliable, with a 4.00 ERA, struggling in late-game situations.
Weather:
None – Domed Stadium
Prediction:
The total on this game is sky high due to bad pitching. What’s even more glaring is that snake’s pitcher Zac Gallen has been just awful this year with a FIP of 4.9. It’s not like Padres Pitcher Ryan Bergert has been much better, but the Padres have the much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to 28th for the Snakes. I will give the overall hitting advantage to the Diamondbacks for now, but that should even out this price to be closer to pick-em rather than plus money for the Padres. Take the Dad’s the day before Fathers day!
Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June has been less than stellar to start. For the season we currently sit at 60-66-38 -4.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays. Today’s being one of those.
My Analysis today turns to Nationals Park in Washington DC where the Washington Nationals (30-38) will host the Miami Marlins (25-41) at 6:45 ET. The current line sits with the Nationals as slight favorites at -110 (Marlins +105) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -120. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out slightly to right at roughly 5mph.
The Marlins have struggled as of late losing 8 of 10 since June began and scoring just 3.4 runs per game. The Nationals also have dropped 8 of their last ten albeit against much better competition than the fish.
Miami starts Edward Cabrera on the bump hoping for good things to happen tonight and for the rest of the season for him. He hasn’t completed a full season in the bigs without injury thus far. After a rough start to the season coming off the IL with a 7.23 ERA in April he has only allowed seven earned runs since then. His peripherals have been solid in lining up with his ERA as he sports a 3.99 mark. His BABIP allowed is at .336 so there is also some positive regression coming for him. He is still striking out over a batter an innings and his walk rate is the lowest of his career at 3.81 batter per nine innings.
On the other side the Nats will run our Mitchell Parker. A lefty who doesn’t strike out many hitters. He has a 4.44 ERA, but has been extremely lucky so far with a HR% against at just 6.6% and a BABIP allowed at .255. He’s got some rough waters coming his way yet as the numbers even out for the season. He is only striking out 5.96 hitters per nine innings and walks 3.55. Up until his start Saturday against the Rangers he had allowed 3+ earned runs in seven straight starts.
So what’s the angle? The offenses are very similar with Miami holding a .690 OPS and Washington a .687. So it boils down to quite simply, Cabrera is the better guy on the mound. While both pitchers allow their share of hard contact, Cabrera can recover with the K, where Parker struggles in that department. Parker got 12 ground ball outs in his first meeting with Miami (Ironically enough these same pitchers opposed each other in that game back in April) and that is highly unlikely to repeat itself. Cabrera’s biggest weakness is walks, and the Nats are 26th in MLB in that department. I look for Cabrera to hopefully get through a decent five innings with a lead and then all bets are off as both of these bullpens are atrocious. (Miami 25th in MLB 4.66 ERA, Nationals 29th in MLB 5.70 ERA). – Maybe Live bet the over in the 5th.
