Nov 23, 2019; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban cheers on his players during warmups before the start of their game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Roll tide, literally. The Crimson Tide have rolled into the SEC championship six out of the past nine seasons while winning all six appearances. Nevertheless, it has been a decade since Alabama has won back-to-back National Championships. Nick Saban leads the defending champions for his 15th year as the Crimson Tide head coach. However, he will have to get some new coordinators and players up to speed. The potent Bama offense from a year ago only returns 3 starters and is returning 8 on a defense that looks to improve.
The Crimson tide lost their quarterback, workhorse running back, top two receivers, starting tight end, 3 offensive linemen and four offensive assistant coaches. Former Penn State and Houston Texans head coach, Bill O’Brien takes over as offensive coordinator with a task to fill 8 positions on the offensive side of the ball. The former five-star quarterback, Bryce Young, is expected to take the reins on offense with returning starter, John Metchie III, most likely being his go-to target after a year where he almost hit 1,000 yards receiving. Metchie III is definitely a breakout candidate this season and does it really matter who is starting at running back each year? It seems the running back position is easily filled each season and same goes for this year with senior Brian Robinson Jr. ready to take over as the featured back. He averaged 5.3 yards per rush in a supporting roll last season. Bama will be looking to replace 3 offensive linemen and it shouldn’t be very hard to do as they have sixth-year senior Chris Owens returning as one of the new linemen and recruited the top 2 tackles and the #2 guard in the 2021 class.
Pete Golding will be back as defensive coordinator for his third year and will have 8 returning starters to work with. The Crimson Tide leaned on the offense last season but they most likely won’t be able to do that this year as the defense will look to take a step forward. It is scary to think that the Tide has five returning defense linemen who all contributed in prominent roles last season and linebacker could be Alabama’s best position. They will be led by LB Christian Harris who broke out last season with 79 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 2020. Additionally, rising star LB Will Anderson Jr. returns after starting as a true freshman and was second on the team with seven sacks a year ago. LB Christopher Allen is worth mentioning after sacking the opposing quarterback five times last season and LB Henry To’o To’o transfers in from Tennessee. After losing their top cornerback to the NFL draft, the secondary could be the deepest position on the team. There are too many to mention but should be led by sophomore Malachi Moore and junior safety Jordan Battle. Moore led the team with three interceptions and had 44 tackles while Battle was third on the team in tackles (66) and took a pick to the house in their blowout win versus Kentucky.
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It’s a smaller slate of MLB action today, which is kind of nice since that gives us more space to take a deep dive into these games. We nailed 2 out of 3 of our free picks yesterday, making me 15-5 since the All-Star break in major league bets. Hoping for more of the same, here are my favorite picks and predictions for your Thursday slate:
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Tigers (-130), 2 units: When we see the 2021 version of Mike Foltynewicz (5.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 102 innings) on the mound, it’s almost an automatic fade. That’s even more true with the direction these two teams are headed. Foltynewicz and the flailing Rangers take the field against the Tigers for one more game to close their regular season series today, a battle owned by Detroit. The Tigers have looked sensational heading out of the All-Star break. Out-scoring their opponents 34-7 over their last 5 games to start the second half of the season and showing off some of the best young pitchers in baseball, the Tigers are suddenly in the heat of the AL Central playoff race after winning 6 straight, itching closer to that .500 mark. They’ve also beaten Texas in 3 straight games and own a 5-1 series lead heading into today’s game at Comerica Park. Reliever Tyler Alexander (4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 43 innings) takes the mound for Detroit Thursday and although his numbers haven’t always been sensational in his limited role, his arm is fresher than most pitchers and he should be able to limit a pedestrian Texas offense. In his most recent outing, Alexander permitted 2 runs in just 3.1 innings against Minnesota. Historically he bounces back with more command after a disappointing performance so I expect a more polished version from the leftie today. I expect no such thing from Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz is only regressing as the season trudges on, allowing a staggering 38 runs over 39.1 innings in June and July. Behind Miguel Cabrera’s recent explosion (7 RBIs in the last 4 contests), a red-hot offense and a group of pitchers that can out-class many a MLB lineup, I’m taking the Tigers to accumulate another win against the free-falling Rangers.
Phillies (+125), 1.5 units: A quick glance at the numbers and you might be tempted to ride Charlie Morton (3.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 105 innings) today but I say not so fast my friends, not so fast. Sure Atlanta still has Freeman and a very solid overall roster, they’re not without hope to make the playoffs, but missing Acuna Jr. adds an element of inconsistency to their offense. The Phillies, on the other hand, are getting healthy at the right time. Harper, Segura, Gregorius, Hoskins, McCutchen– all of Philadelphia’s integral playmakers are poised for a big second half of the season and a big game at home against their NL East rival. Phillies’ starter Matt Moore (5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP over 36 innings) leaves a lot to be desired but he’s consistent lately if nothing else, allowing only 2 runs or less in his last 4 starts. In front of their fans the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games against Atlanta and of course, all of those competitions had Acuna Jr. in the mix. I sense a solid enough showing from Matt Moore today and an offense ready to explode at Citizens Bank Park– I’m on a Philly win.
Giants first 5 +0.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Giants continue to hang with and at times out-class the reigning champs in Los Angeles, stealing another game Wednesday night as they held LAD to only 2 runs. Today the undervalued NL West leaders are starting one of their best throwers in Anthony DeSclafani (2.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 113.1 innings). DeSclafani permitted a rare 3 runs in his first outing after the All-Star break to the improving Cardinals and will look to redeem his performance tonight against San Francisco’s #1 foe. In short, I trust the 31 year old righty, who still owns an exceptional 81.2% LOB rate and flexes 8.18 K/9 innings. The Dodgers send out Walker Buehler (2.37 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 121.1 innings) Thursday, who’s been as equally dominant as DeSclafani, and he boasts even more impressive xERA and xFIP marks and slightly better strikeout and LOB rates. In what should be a battle of aces, the Dodgers and Giants have played very evenly in this most recent series. Both teams have performed well on offense in spurts and, predictably, the Giants continue to ride an excellent rotation to stack up wins. Combined with their superb ability to game-plan and out-coach their opponent, I’m wagering that DeSclafani can hang with LAD in the first half of this contest. As the bullpens thin and the Giants become a tad more vulnerable to the big-hitting lineup of the home team, I just like the full game a little less. Though, make no mistake about it, San Francisco could easily knab another victory tonight.
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Thursday 16-0 American League Game Of The Month Headlines Thursday card. MLS Soccer Play below.
The MLS Soccer Comp Play is on Orlando City over Philadelphia at 7:30 eastern. Orlando City has lost only one of their last six home games and they will have a big ground game advantage in the middle and they have four clean sheets in those games. Orlando can skip over Philadelphia in the standings and will be all out here for the 3 points. Philadelphia is winless in the last 4 road and comes in off a home win. Both teams are evenly matched. However we should see a top level effort to Orlando. Look for them to pick up the three points. On Thursday the lead play is the 16-0 American League Play of the Month. See us on facebook to Jump on and dominate on the Diamond. For the MLS Play. Go with Orlando. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
MLB
San Francisco at LA Dodgers 10:10 pm
Webb vs Urias
PICK: SF +145 LEAN
PICK: SF Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN
I’m not going crazy here against Urias but there are some things here that warrant going with Giants as dogs tonight.
Webb allowed 1 run in 5 IP in last start at LA on 5/29, allowed 2 runs or less in his 2 starts career at LA .
Webb 3.49 ERA in night games this season
Webb allowed 2 runs or less in each of last 5 starts
SF batting .312 last 10 games vs LHP
SF 16-5 last 21 WED games
LA bullpen 4.75 ERA last 10 games
SF roster batting .316 vs Urias
SF has scored 11, 5 and 10 runs in their last 3 games Urias has started against them
Urias allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 7 starts
The Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up their two-game interleague set Wednesday afternoon at American Family Field. Righty Brad Keller will get the nod for the Royals. He is 6-9 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.76 WHIP across 95 IP in 19 starts. However, he has gone 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA across 14 innings in two July starts. Left-hander Eric Lauer will step to the mound for the Brewers. He is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 56 1/3 IP spanning nine starts and three relief appearances. Lauer has recorded three straight quality starts and has lowered his ERA from 5.21 to 3.83 as a result of the excellent performances, yielding just 2 earned runs and 11 hits across the past 18 1/3 innings. The Brewers rank 21st in the league in runs scored at home while the Royals own the 3rd worst runs averaged on the road this season. If we break it down to the first five innings, we are looking at Milwaukee scoring the 3rd least amount of runs at home (2.16) and the Royals are only averaging 2 runs in the first 5 innings on the road. The Brewcrew, also, rank 29th in wOBA, have the worst batting average and have the lowest amount of hits on the season in their first 5 innings. Additionally, Kansas City owns a 24th ranked weighted on base average this season in the first five innings. We would play full game but I don’t trust the Royals bullpen to cooperate. Take F5 Under 5 runs
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AFC West – I think that we found out a few things from this division last year. Kansas City is still a great team and a deserving favorite, but it’s hard to repeat another Super bowl win in consecutive years. The Raiders can’t and may not get over the hump. The LA Chargers were 100% correct in drafting Justin Herbert as well being correct in firing coach Lance Lynn, and Drew Lock for the Denver Broncos is not a franchise quarterback. The AFC West plays the AFC North and the NFC East this year which is what I would call medium in general but the schedules of these teams individually will have some pretty big differences this year with the Raiders having one of the hardest schedules in the NFL while the Broncos have one of the easiest in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs – Vegas Win Total – 12.5 juiced to the under -125
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 8
Schedule – Medium hard – At large vs Green Bay, vs Buffalo, @ Tennessee
Key losses: LT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, CB Breshard Breeland
Key additions: LT Orlando Brown, G Joe Thuney, DT Jarren Reed, RB Damien Williams
Key draft picks: LB Nick Bolton, C Creed Humphrey and a bunch of Meh
Summary: The Chiefs made it all the way last year and lost to Tampa Bay. Part of that was due to their offensive line woes due to injuries and age but they fixed some of that in the offseason shedding Erik Fisher and trading their first round pick for left tackle Orlando Brown and paying big bucks for Guard Joe Thuney who was extracted from the Patriots. I think that the Chiefs are still a bit weaker at right tackle from resigning Mike Remmers who was awful in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs also lost some depth at cornerback to free agency and I really don’t like the lack of effort to replace that. Either way, the offensive line should improve and this team still should have the best offense in the league. It’s the defense that worries me more from a depth perspective and we need to see if it holds up. The Frank Clark gun incident certianly didn’t do this team any favors. My number is 13.37 wins so I think that this team has the best chance to get the number 1 seed in the AFC. I know… Shocking right?
My Number: 13.37
Action – Lean Over
2. Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas Win Total – 7
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -1
Schedule – Hard – At large vs Chicago, vs Miami, @ Indianapolis
Key losses: WR Nelson Agholor, RB Devonte Booker, DE Takarist McKinnley, RT Trent Brown, C Rodney Hudson, G Gabe Jackson, FS Lamarcus Joyner, DE Vic Beasley
Key additions: DE Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyon Drake, WR John Brown, DE Solomon Thomas, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Casey Hayward
Key draft picks: T Alex Leatherwood, S Trevon Moehrig, Edge Malcomb Koonce, S Divine Diablo
Summary: Lots of people are pretty low on the Raiders and it really feels like a bunch of people who are trying to find a reason to bash them to bet the under. Maybe they are Gruden haters? Maybe they are Derek Carr non-believers. Who knows? The biggest things that I am hearing in the marketplace is that the Raiders got rid of their stud right tackle in Trent Brown along with Center Rodney Hutson and Guard Gabe Brown. At first I thought that this was pretty bad, but this team did have some depth at offensive line, and some younger guys will have to step up. First round draft pick of the 2018 draft Kolton Miller will be left tackle and this year’s first round pick from Alabama in Alex Leatherwood will have to shed the growing pains quick. Could it happen? Maybe, but they also need guard Richie Incognito to keep his head out of his ass. It looks bad that the Raiders lost their top WR in Nelson Agholor but they due have a lot of depth there with the signings of John Brown and Willie Snead. Remember the narrative in 2019 about the raiders in how they had to travel over 32,000 miles and they will go under their season win total because of it? How did that work out? I am not as low as some people are on this team but looking at their schedule and potential non-home field advantage in Las Vegas, I can’t imagine looking at the over. No Play
My Number: 7.24 wins
Action – Lean Under
3. Los Angeles Chargers – Vegas Win Total: 9 Juiced to the over -150
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 0
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Minnesota, vs New England, @ Houston
Key losses – Coach Anthony Lynn, TE Hunter Henry, S Rayshawn Jenkins, ILB Denzel Perryman, OLB Melvin Engram, C Mike Pouncey, G Trei Turner
Key additions: Coach Brandon Staley, OC Joe Lombardi, C Corey Linsley, RT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, G Oday Aboushi
Key draft picks: T Rayshawn Slater, CB Asante Samuel JR and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Justin Herbert turned out to be a great QB pick who was selected 3rd in the 2020 draft. The Chargers under 8 wins last year was our biggest bet and I was happy that it cashed, but I am not so sure that I want to go under this year with a new defensive minded coach like Brandon Staley and a very experienced coach calling the plays in the Sean Payton Tree. I think those were some great moves. Anthony Lynn did not know how to manage the clock in games, and he was very poor from a strategic aspect in NFL football. This team revamped their offensive line by signing Packers and Steelers guys and drafting one of the top prospects in the league in Rashawn Slater who was the only guy who somewhat handled Chase Young in college. That is a smart move being that both of the Packers and Steeler’s offensive lines have been great over the past 5 or so years. In saying that, this Charger team shed a lot of weight getting rid of some X stars that could never stay all that healthy in Melvin Engram and Hunter Henry. The Chargers won 7 games last year but there is an asterisk by that last game due to Kansas City benching their starters for the playoffs. This Chargers team was pretty injured last year ranking 6th in total injuries and I think that they could have a great season and push KC a bit. I have them to take 2nd in the division.
My Number: 9.33 wins
Action – No Play
4. Denver Broncos – Vegas Season Win total – 8.5 juiced to the over -140
Denver Broncos Power Rating – -2.25
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs Detroit, vs New York Jets, @ Jacksonville
Key losses: DT Jurrell Casey, TE Nick Vannett, CB AJ Bouye, OLB Jeremiah Attaochu, RT Juwan James, RB Phillip Lindsey
Key additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle Fuller, RB Mike Boone, DT Shamar Stephen
Key draft picks: CB Patrick Surtain, RB Javonte Williams, LB Baron Browning and a bunch of smaller names
Summary: The defense should be good… Well, if they can finally stop the run. Opponents ran 130 yards per game vs Denver which was 25th worst in the league. This Broncos team was pretty injured last year and it all started out with Courtland Sutton’s torn ACL in the very first game. There was also a point where this team had to play a game with no quarterback and Fangio had to have Phillip Lindsey and a few other players take wild-cat snaps. The Broncos were supposed to have one of the easiest schedules in the league last year and it ended up being one of the hardest due to teams like the Chargers, Dolphins and Raiders exceeding expectations. Denver’s Pythagorean win total adjusted for 17 games was 6.1 which wasn’t a far cry from the 5.31 adjusted wins they had achieved. Fangio drafted a big cornerback in Patrick Surtain and he is now reunited with Kyle Fuller from the Bears and a nice addition in Ronald Darby from Philly. My biggest concern is the offensive line which was ignored. Denver had some bad luck with Ju’Wuan James hurting himself in non-team activities forcing the hand of Denver to cut him. The Quarterback might be an issue because it is now obvious that Drew Lock isn’t a franchise guy and Teddy Bridgewater might make it more difficult for this team decide in which direction to go. I don’t see an upgrade there. My number is slightly below 8 wins so I might take a look at this under at some point.
Wednesday Card has the MLS Soccer Game of the Month and a Powerful MLB Card with a Platinum Supreme Top Play. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play for Hump Day is on the Under 8 runs in the Chicago at St. Louis game at 8:15 eastern. Nice pitching match here as the Cubs have Hendricks who always pitches well vs the Cardinals opposing Wainwright the Cards. Wainwright has better home splits this year and has pitched under in 3 of his last 4 at home and 4 of 5 vs the Cubs. Hendricks has gone under in 4 of his last 5 road starts and he has allowed 2 or less runs in 6 of his last 7 appearances. The Cards are 8 of 10 under vs a team that is .500 or less and 4 of 5 under in game 3 of a series. The Cubs have stayed under in 16 of 21 as a road dog. Look for a tight lower scoring game that stays under On Hump day we another big MLB Card led by a Platinum Supreme move one of out highest rated Plays. There is also the MLS Soccer Game of the Month and more. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports. For the Comp Play. Go Under Chicago at St. Louis
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday at Nationals Park. Lefty ace Trevor Rogers will get the nod for the Marlins. He is 7-6 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 101 1/3 innings pitched across 18 starts. RHP Paolo Espino will step to the mound tonight for the Nationals. He is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 46 IP spanning 5 starts and 16 relief appearances. The Nats are coming off their game last night with the Marlins where they put up 18 runs and I do not see them slowing down as they rank 4th in the league vs lefties in wOBA this season. Since coming out of the break, the Nats own the best wOBA, OPS, SLG, and have the most triples and homeruns in the MLB. In addition, Rogers has seen his ERA increase each of the last 3 months so there is a good chance for continued regression. Also, Miami ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in runs scored and ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the first five innings of their ballgames. A strength for Miami has been their excellent pen, so we will stay away and take the first 5 at plus money. Take the Nationals F5 +110
Garrett Richards gets the ball for the Red Sox and he posts a 4.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the season. Over his past 7 starts, the right-hander has pitched to a 7.11 ERA with opponents hitting .361 off him. In addition to that, he has posted a horrible 1.96 WHIP in the past month. The Blue Jays have gotten to the Red Sox righty for 10 runs on 22 hits while drawing 12 walks in 16 2-3 innings of work over three starts. These bullpens are too unpredictable so well stick with the first five innings. The Blue Jays will counter with right-hander Thomas Hatch. This will be his first start in the majors but at AAA-Buffalo he posted a 2.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 29.1 innings pitched. Well, triple A and the Red Sox are completely different animals, especially since their bats came alive last night scoring 13 runs and the over is 7-0 in the Blue Jays’ last seven games when facing a right-handed starter. These bullpens are too unpredictable so well stick with the first five innings. Toronto has scored the most runs in the first five innings at home this season and also own the best wOBA on the year. In addition to the Jays bats thriving, Boston ranks 4th in runs scored in the first five innings on the road and also rank right behind the Jays in F5 wOBA. If you combine their F5 average runs, you get 6.81 runs per game in the 1st five innings. So, if you combine this pitching matchup versus these bats, we love the over to hit, literally. Take F5 Over 6.5 runs
We were 3-0 yesterday and we’re 12-2 betting baseball the last 4 days– enough said (and in fear of “the jinx”). Onto Tuesday!
Brewers (-157), 1.5 units: Well unfortunately this play isn’t as sexy as my 3 plus-money grabs yesterday but it’ll have to do. I thought Milwaukee was starting Eric Lauer (3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 56.1 innings) today, which meant this would be a 2 unit play, but instead they’re starting Brett Anderson (4.33 ERA, 7.33 xERA, 4.26 xFIP). Anderson should be able to do enough to hold off the ice-cold bats of Kansas City. His numbers aren’t great but at this stage in his career, he certainly has enough experience and confidence to punk a Royals team that just got absolutely waxed by Baltimore. Added to that angle is my desire to fade Mike Minor (5.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 106.1 innings). According to FanGraphs, Minor “has been able to keep his spin constant and his recent struggles (6.99 ERA since June 1st) are from a declining velocity. His monthly fastball velocity has gone from 91.6 mph to 91.0 to 90.5 to 90.8 and his slider from 86.3 to 85.5 to 85.4 to 84.8. His strikeout rate was 10.2 K/9 for the first two months but just 6.8 K/9 since June 1st. Nearly unrosterable at his current production.” It shows. Over his last 5 starts, Minor has given up 39 hits and 26 runs over just 26.2 innings. Now the spiraling Royals find themselves at American Family Field against a team they beat twice twice in Kansas City this year. The Brewers have revenge on their mind and I’m betting they get it today.
Marlins/Nationals No Runs in First Inning (-110), 1.5 units: I realize that Juan Soto and the Nationals show no signs of slowing down right now but I still like a quiet start to this contest. What a show they put on yesterday against Miami, though. Soto homered twice and the rest of the Washington lineup followed suit, hammering the Marlins for an 18-1 win. The Nationals are a team on my radar entering the second half of the season. Their schedule is very accommodating and their bats are heating up. And if even Jon Lester is going to command the mound like he did Monday, the Nats could be a real problem in the National League as we near the fall. All that aside, the booming offense we saw yesterday might not have the same opportunities in this matchup. Tonight, Marlins ace Trevor Rogers (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 101.1 innings) squares off against Washington’s Paolo Espino (3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 46 innings). Espino is a long time minor-league thrower who at 34 is finally getting a shot to prove he can hang with the big boys. And he may just have what it takes. Espino has gotten obliterated so far in July, permitting 13 hits and 9 runs in just 10.1 innings, but I’m not bothered by it. The Padres came out of the break pissed off (as they should be after how they finished the 1st half) and the Giants and Dodgers are the class of the NL. Many a pitcher has been eaten alive by those crews. Espino is facing a red-hot Nationals team, sure, but their hitting can only drop off after yesterday’s outing. I like the under 9 (-110) in this game but I like a first inning calm even more.
Rockies -1.5 (EVEN), 2 units: This is a great setup for Colorado. Since they’re getting a bit overpriced now that the books have caught up and realize they’re an actual threat at home, I don’t like the moneyline number (-180). Fortunately when you play at Coors Field, most games finish by margin anyway. German Marquez (3.36 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 114 Ks over 112.1 innings) and I have a long and volatile relationship. Last year I was high on him and thought he could have a true breakout year. That didn’t really happen. This year I’ve proceeded with caution and he finally seems to be settling into his own. Figures. Now I’m ready to play on him again so let’s see what happens. I hate to think that Chris Farley’s support of German Marquez means he’ll start to suck but, in the superstitious world of sports gambling, one has to wonder. The real startling thing about Marquez is that he’s playing even better at home. The Rockies aren’t the only offense that enjoys slugging in the mile-high city. Many a pitcher has succumbed to the thin air of Denver but somehow, Marquez has kept batters in check. Over his last 5 starts at home, Marquez has only allowed 4 runs over 34 innings. That’s pretty tremendous. While he’s probably due for some negative regression, his opponent today is Marco Gonzalez (1-5, 5.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 56.2 innings). Gonzalez has allowed 19 runs over his last 5 starts (23.4 innings) and shows little signs of improvement. The Rockies just got bested by the NL-elite Dodgers, at home, and now they see an appetizing foe awaiting the slaughter on their home field. I’m on the Rockies by margin.
