Sunday our top play is the ESPN 100% Sunday night Baseball Total of the Year headlining the MLB Card along with a TOP MLS Soccer Play and Olympic Tennis. MLB Comp Play below.
The Sunday MLB Play is on Chicago at 2:20 eastern. The Cubs will look to bounce back and take the rubber game here today with Williams and Chicago has won 3 of his last 4 starts and today he faces Caleb Smith and Arizona has lost 8 of his last 9 starts as he has allowed 11 runs in 7 innings over his last 2 starts, The Diamondbacks even with the Saturday win are still 3-47 as a dog of 120 or more. The Cubs have won 7 of 9 vs .400 or less and 5 of 7 here in the series. With The Cubs 7-2 as a home favorite off a home favored loss. On Sunday night baseball we have our 100% ESPN TOTAL OF the Year along with MLS Soccer game of the Month, Olympic Tennis and more. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Early play. We will back the Cubs today. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Well this is a pretty big price for this run total. The Giants are eyeing the playoffs and trying to stay on top of the division. They are facing a Pittsburgh team that is starting Wil Crowe. He has a 6.07 FIP and a horrible 1.62 WHIP coming into this game. If he gets a quality start today, I might have to eat crow. Gausman is on the mound for the Giants. He has a .85 WHIP. Seriously? Do I even need to say anything more? Why would I have to give up any other stats on a guy with a .85 WHIP? This price is large and it should be being that San Francisco is one of the best batting teams ranking 5th in wRC+ and Pittsburgh is one of the worst at 28th. Football season is coming baby so I am thinking spread. I can certainly see some margin in this game and the price is more than $1 better. The wind is blowing out making this low total at 8 tell me that its all the San Francisco. Take the Giants by 2.
This fight is going to be good. Randy Costa is coming in a little bit green at 6-1 but all of his wins were by KO/TKO and most of them were fast! Adrian Yanez comes in at the same age as Costa at 27 years but has a nicer record at 13-3 with some better wins and higher caliber opponents. This is why he is the favorite here. One thing that sticks out to me is that Costa’s only loss was by submission, and Yanez has only done that twice, but not since 2016. This fight should be standing and throwing some serious kicks and punches. I think you would be hard pressed to not think that these fighters are going to finish pretty early. Yanez has some good knock out power himself with 8 of them and Costa has NEVER made it past 1.5 round in all of his 7 fights. This one should be obvious. Take the under.
Under 1.5 +100 – 1.5 stars
Main Event:
Cory Sandhagen vs TJ Dillashaw +185
This is a fight that was supposed to happen earlier but was cancelled due to injury. TJ Dillashaw has had a pretty rough 2020 – 2021. His fall from grace is one of the most drastic in mixed martial arts history. From UFC champion, to failed title challenger, to admitted cheater, all in a matter of weeks. He got caught doping and said he was sorry. His excuse was that he was trying to get down to 125 lbs to be a contender in that class. Anyways, TJ is still a very good fighter at 35 years old coming off his 2 year suspension. he is 15-4 with 8 Kos, 3 submissions and 5 decision. Cory Sandhagen at 29 years old on the other hand is primed to have a huge fight today because he is next in line to face top contenders Peter Yan or a rematch with Aljamain Sterling. He has 6 Kos, 3 submissions and 5 decisions on his record. If this fight was 2 years ago, I might have leaned with TJ Dillashaw but Cory Sandhagen is now the better all around fighter landing 6.8 significant strikes to Dillishaw’s 5.7 per minute. TJ has the power but Cory has the skills as well as the size advantage at 5’11 to TJ at 5’6 wearing boots. I think that the price of this fight is still a little off. The ring rust on Dillashaw is certainly something to fade in this situation and who knows how long the guy was actually doping. Grab Sandhagen.
Well the Yankees disappointed against Boston (again), the Tigers streak came to an end and like one of my sharp premium customers predicted, the Giants had a let-down game against a Pittsburgh team with more fire. We’re 17-10 in baseball this week, still good, but needless to say I’m out for some vengeance today. I also have a few UFC plays at the bottom of this article to cover your MMA betting desires. Onto the picks!
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MLB Picks
Nationals -2.5 (+120), 2 units: Why is this plus money juice so low even though it’s a wager on the Nationals by significant margin? Because unless we’re warped into an alternate universe, which feels like it actually happens often in MLB, this is an extremely uneven matchup between the Nationals and Orioles. Without getting into the numbers– that’s something you can do if you don’t believe me– Baltimore’s Matt Harvey probably shouldn’t even be in the majors anymore. He’s a great example of how thin the Orioles rotation really is; they just keep starting these awful pitchers and oddly, they don’t experiment very often with their up and comers. That’s not an issue for Washington. After getting shockingly blasted by the home team last night, the Nationals should be (emphasis on should) locked in today and ready for an offensive explosion. We know how dangerous their lineup can be and against Matt Harvey, there’s little reason to believe they won’t experience positive regression today. On the other end, the Nats will start Max Scherzer. Enough said. If this isn’t a blowout, it’s likely I’ll need a break from betting baseball.
Rangers/Astros NRFI (no run in 1st inning, -110), 1 unit and Blue Jays/Mets NRFI (-110), 1 unit: Two games with above-average pitchers and three of the throwers are dying for some positive regression. Gibson (TX), Valdez (HOU), and Walker (NYM) all got blasted in their last starts in atypical fashion and these games set up well for a little redemption. I expect all these throwers to come out commanding and I like how there’s limited juice in these lines. I lean the unders in both of these contests as well, but since there’s plenty of offense between these four ballclubs, especially when they settle in, I see less value in the total. Give me the NRFIs.
Angels (+106), 1.5 units: Jose Berrios (MIN- 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 114.2 innings) is starting to experience some negative regression but a lot of that has been bad luck. His growing BABIP is a concern but he still has generally good xERA (4.12) and xFIP (3.53) numbers and he’s easily been Minnesota’s most consistent starter this season. While we expect some improvement from him today, the Twins offense has also gotten rather lucky lately. Even with Cruz getting traded to Tampa and the host of injuries the Twins are managing, they’re finding opportunities to score. I think that may take a hit today (no reverse pun intended). The Angels offense is better in just about every category and Patrick Sandoval (3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 63 innings) has the fresher arm. Sandoval, like Berrios, doesn’t do anything terribly impressive but his profile indicates how good he is in general at limiting production from good lineups. Since the break the LAA offense has produced less than 4 runs per game. Eventually that’ll regress back to the mean and I think this might be an unfortunate spot for Berrios and a poor Minnesota rotation (with a team 4.95 ERA that ranks near the bottom of MLB). I’m on the halos for plus money!
UFC Picks
Jordan Williams by TKO (+190), 1 unit: I fondly remember a time where Mickey Gall really seemed like the future of the UFC’s welterweight class. Part of that perception remains true; Gall doesn’t go down easy, he’s young, and he has plenty of potential. Of course half the reason I thought Gall had so much upside was because of how he handily embarrassed CM Punk 5 years ago– not exactly a great indicator of any fighter’s potential. Insert Jordan Williams. Williams lost in his UFC debut after allowing Nassourdine Imavov to take him down time and time again, but Imavov is a thicker fighter and more physical prowess than Gall. Mickey loves taking the fight to the ground and has never lost when he has forced a takedown, but I’m not too worried about that here. Williams has a significant striking advantage and Gall will feel like a step-down in competition compared to Imavov. With Williams undoubtedly training to defend takedowns better and ready to redeem his first showing on a UFC card, I love “Bomaye” Williams to get a TKO victory on Saturday. Seven out of his nine wins have come by KO/TKO– let’s make it 8 tonight.
Miranda Maverick (-160), 1.6 units: Maycee Barber is a fighter I’ve been rooting for since her debut. In solo sports it’s easy to get behind an athlete because you share some sort of bias about them– you like their edge, their personality, their hype, you see yourself in them, or maybe you even find them attractive. These are all normal psychological reasons behind inherent bias and I get it, but they’re not great reasons to handicap a sport. At 24, Miranda Maverick has now won 5 fights in a row and seems to have surpassed Barber as the real future of the UFC’s flyweight division. She can beat you in a variety of ways and has a ton of experience under her belt, from her time with Invicta to her most recent stint now with the UFC. Maycee has a slight 2″ height advantage but I don’t think that’ll show tonight. Barber has a strange, almost tree-like fighting stance that leaves her vulnerable to attacks. We saw it in her surprising loss to Roxanne Modafferi and we saw it most recently against Alexa Grasso in Barber’s unanimous decision loss. Maverick is too skilled and too dynamic to not take advantage. Unless there’s something wildly different in Barber’s defense, I think Maverick could dominate this fight for 3 rounds or really send “the Future” reeling into irrelevance with a mid-fight TKO. I see this being Maverick’s official “come out party” after another big win.
TJ Dillashaw (+160), 1 unit: The sharps are all over Cory Sandhagen in this one and for good reason. He’s the younger fighter with a more impressive resume, especially recently, and he has a significant size advantage in this fight. Perhaps the TJ Dillashaw brand earns him a little more respect than he deserves so for those of you who like Sandhagen in this contest, I would go for a win within distance. It’s better value and it makes sense in a 5 round fight. All that said, I’m still going with TJ. Sandhagen brings a great arsenal to this fight, like he always does, and he’s capable of beating you by submission or TKO or by decision on any night. He’s long, rangy, and precise. But has he ever faced a fighter like TJ before? I don’t think so. Henry Cejudo is the only other fighter who compares to TJ’s tank and constancy. Few fighters train like TJ (and in that way he may be certifiably insane), and even fewer fighters can hang with how much energy he brings into every fight. After a long layoff due to suspension, this is about legacy for Dillashaw. Sandhagen is expecting to win this fight, as he should, but I think that’ll create some unexpected and unfortunate results for him. While all this time off could spell a colder and more lackadaisical fighter, I think it’ll mean the opposite for Dillashaw. The two-time bantamweight king should come out with even more variety and energy than ever and I think it’ll catch Sandhagen by surprise. I’ll take the dynamic dog for 1 unit in the main event.
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Saturday card led by an Executive Level TIER 1 MLB Play, the Gold Cup Soccer Play of the Year, late night Olympic Tennis Mismatch and More. Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the Under 8 runs in the Toronto at NY. Mets game at 7:10 eastern. Solid pitching match here with Ryu and Walker. Ryu for the Jays has a 3.32 Era and Walker has been dominant at home winning 12 straight dating to last year. Nice totals system that has gone under 35 of 49 since 2004 for road favorites off a road loss by 2 or more with 4 or less hits vs a home team off a win of 2 or more. The Jays are 5 of 5 under on the road vs a winning team. The Mets are 9 of 10 under vs a Left hander and 12 of 14 under at home vs a winning team. Look for this game to stay under tonight. On Saturday a Big Bases card is up led by an Executive Level TIER 1. There is the CONACAF Gold Cup Play of the Year and Olympic Tennis and more. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out all day and night on Saturday. For the MLB Comp play. Take the Under in the Toronto vs NY. Mets game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
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The Arizona Diamondbacksare on the road as they open up a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs Friday afternoon. Righty Zac Gallen makes his 11th start of the season for the Diamondbacks. He comes in 1-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 46.2 innings. Pitching on the road this season, Gallen is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 26 innings in five starts. Righty Zach Davies gets the nod for the Cubs this afternoon. He comes in 5-6 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 97.1 innings of work on the season. Arizona comes into this one as winners of four straight games and own a .285 batting average and .379 wOBA since the break, both best for 5th in the league. Chicago, however, has been in a tailspin hitting an abysmal .207 during the same stretch. Some guys to keep an eye on in this one are Christian Walker, David Peralta and Josh Rojas. They are all hitting at least .333 versus Davies in 25 combined at bats. The strength for the Cubs is definitely their bullpen so we will look to the first five innings in the ballgame. Saying that, Chicago has scored the 2nd least amount of runs in the first five innings in the league in the past month.
Take the Diamondbacks F5 +110
The Washington Nationals take on their regional rival, Baltimore Orioles, tonight in the opening game of their three-game series from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Lefty Patrick Corbin will get the ball for the Nats. He owns a 5.66 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the season. The O’s will counter with righty Jorge Lopez who posts a 6.04 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the year. His 12 losses are tops in baseball and he hasn’t sniffed a win since June 6th. The Orioles’ offense ranks 25th in runs per game and 23rd in home runs per game while Washington ranks 1st in the league in wOBA since the break and look to continue their hot hitting tonight. The Nationals’ offense has been playing too well over the last few days to think that Baltimore will have any chance to keep it close. They’ve scored seven runs or more in four of their last six games, against pitching staffs much stronger than what Baltimore is going to show on Friday night. Saying that, the Nats bullpen has struggled out of the break ranking 29th in the league in WHIP in the past week.
Take the Nationals F5 -140
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The Giants came through with a big win last night but we had the wrong angle playing the first five innings. The Phillies barely showed up. Fortunately the surging Tigers got us a win and we’re now 16-7 since the All-Star break; can’t complain about that! Happy Friday!
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Cubs (-135), 1.5 units: With the trade deadline looming and the Diamondbacks teeter-tottering on the moves they’ll make, this is a prime week to fade MLB’s worst team. Arizona has only lost one game since the break, which I can appreciate, but all 5 of those contests were at home and 3 of them were against the equally weak Pirates. The Diamondbacks may have a slight edge in pitching today with Zac Gallen (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 46.2 innings) on the mound, but they certainly don’t have the better team. The Cubbies have struggled since the break, getting owned by their NL Central rival Cardinals in St. Louis and starting off the second half of the season with a loss to Arizona. Reeling from these losses and losing traction in the playoff race, Chicago needs to take advantage of the next 7 games at Wrigley Field. Zach Davies (4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP over 97.1 innings) will get the call Friday for Chicago. Davies has a generally solid profile and he’s particularly good at limiting homers (0.83/9 innings), but I like him even more today since the last time these two clubs met, it was Arizona who eked out a win. Davies played okay, allowing 2 runs in 4.2 innings, but at home he tends to be more comfortable and commanding. The Cubs are a better team at Wrigley (28-17) and the Diamondbacks are absolutely atrocious on the road (11-38). I’ll take the home-town squad for 1.5 units.
Yankees (EVEN), 1.5 units: The Red Sox are riding an 8-2 season record into today’s reignited rivalry so I have to refrain from throwing out too many units on this one. That being said, Gerrit Cole’s (2.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 158 Ks over 120 innings) recent showings and an always dangerous lineup give me hope that the Yanks can turn that around today. Last time Cole opposed the Red Sox lineup he commanded the mound and looked in his prime, allowing only a single run over 6 innings. Today he’ll face off against Eduardo Rodriguez (5.19 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 120 innings). Presenting an average to slightly above average profile, Rodriguez performed really well last time he started against the Bronx Bombers, permitting just 2 hits and 0 runs over 5.2 innings. While that was impressive, I expect some negative regression from the 28 year old today. His LOB rates and velocity is free-falling and the Yankees’ bats are starting to heat up– they’ve outscored their opponents 28-16 since the break. With Cole on the mound throwing strikeouts (he leads baseball in K’s this year) and a New York lineup dying for revenge against a hittable thrower, I’m on the Yankees in the underdog role.
Tigers (+105), 1 unit: Shit, why not? The Tigers held us up yesterday and they’ve now won seven, yes SEVEN games in a row! Eventually the losses will come but at this point it’s beyond a surge– the Tigers will continue to put forth max effort to keep this streak going– and they certainly have the talent to do so. The lesser known Peralta, first name Wily (1.64 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 33 innings), has been pretty damn sensational so far. The 32 year old veteran has a ridiculous .187 BABIP in his short season, which will surely increase, but as FanGraphs noted, “hitters are going to have to string together a few singles to get to him. He might even have a little strikeout upside if he increases his 19% splitter (18% SwStr%) usage. Surprisingly streamable.” I think Peralta will continue to have success against one of MLB’s most inconsistent offenses today. Kansas City’s 23 year old maverick Kris Bubic (5.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP over 62.2 innings) will get the nod Friday and while his numbers aren’t awful, his dropping LOB rates and inflating WHIP are a concern against a confident rival in this contest. The Tigers and Royals have maintained a closely-fought series all year, with Detroit having the slight edge with a 7-6 record to this point. Only 2 of Kansas City’s wins have come at home. I’m on the Tigers once again– let’s make it EIGHT in a row!
Giants -1.5 (+110), 2 units: This is going to be a very simple handicap, ready? The Giants just got a huge series win against their arch-rival Dodgers, IN Los Angeles. Very impressive stuff. Known primarily for their elite pitching, San Francisco’s hitters are stepping up and showing how much depth their lineup really has. Pittsburgh comes limping into this series after dropping 4 straight to Arizona, yikes. While I may expect positive regression and redemption from a better team, I don’t from the Pirates. Nor do I expect a let-down game for San Francisco. The Giants need to take advantage of this series at home. It’s one thing to beat the Dodgers and close the gap on the season long series; it’s another thing to start gaining distance in the NL West race. That’s what they could accomplish if they sweep the Pirates at home (LAD heads to Oracle Park again following this 3-game battle). Better pitching, better offense, better team– the Giants are 30-13 at home while Pittsburgh is a putrid 15-34 on the road. True champions beat up on lowly teams and I expect that from San Francisco tonight.
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We have a great show for you today! Sometimes you just have to hear it from the bookie himself! Raphael Esparza from MyBookie.com and Docssports.com comes on to break down some NFL futures and specialty props for the 2021 NFL season First, Kiev answers a bankroll question from one of our listeners. Next, he introduces a new sponsor and a great proxy for the huge NFL contests this coming up year! Check out footballcontest.com for the most experienced contest proxy in all of Las Vegas! Then, Raphael comes on to discuss some football! First, the guys talk a bit about some of the current exotic props that Raphael has created for Mybookie.com and discusses which ones are the most successful. What is the process of making these props? Why is these props like normal life? Next, Raphael and Kiev get into each NFL division and give out some plays. Then, the guys get into some of the specialty props like MVP, Coach of the year, DPOY, and more with some plays and some leans. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC fight night 27 Sandhagen vs Dillashaw with a few plays for the weekend.
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The Tokyo Terminator Tennis Olympics play is on Sumit Nagal at 11:30pm Eastern in Round 1. Denis Istomin has a Huge serve and not much else at this point which once helped him upset Novak Djokovic at the 2017 Australian Open. That was a long time ago and At 34 he is now ranked 196th and is just 14-19 on the year. He will take on a Younger Nagal who is also a challenger circuit player but is thrilled to have qualified here and will be energized representing his country. He will most likely run Istomin all over the court. In what could be a tight match we will go with Nagal who has been better overall. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
The second weekend of Saratoga features the GI American Oaks, GIII Caress Stakes, and the Grade III Shuvee. The GI American Oaks and GIII Caress Stakes will take place on Saturday while the GIII Shuvee runs on Sunday. In both races, we really don’t have too deep of a field. The Grade I American Oaks is headlined by morning line favorite Malathatt at 2-5. There’s only four horses in this race, so it’s not that great of a race to wager on. In the Grade III Caress stakes the field expands to six horses but, again, we have heavy favorites in Caravel and Robin Sprinkles.
Next weekend, we have one of the better slates at the Spa to look forward to which includes one GI Stakes and three GII Stakes.
Inaugurated in 1917, the Coaching Club American Oaks is named in honor of the Coaching Club of America, for which a requisite for membership was the ability to handle a coach and four horses with a single group of reins. August Belmont II set the original conditions to emulate the Epsom Oaks (now the Epsom Derby) in England. From 1919-1941 and 1944-1958, the race was run at 1 3/8 miles; from 1990-1997 and 2004-2009 at 1 ¼ miles, and in 1942 and 1943, from 1971-1989 and from 1998-2003 at 1 ½ miles. Since 2010, when it was moved from Belmont Park to Saratoga Race Course, it has been run at 1 1/8 miles. Prior to 1928 it was run as a handicap.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: I
Race: 5
Post Time: 3:23 PM ET
Length: 1 1/8 Miles
Purse: $500,000
Division: Fillies | 3 Year Olds
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Double Wagers, NO SHOW WAGERING
Field:
Malathaat (John Velazquez), 2-5
Maracuja (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 6-1
Rockpaperscissors (Luis Saez), 15-1
Clairiere (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 9-5
Horse Preview:
MALATHATT, the unbeaten filly will be the star of the show on Saturday at Saratoga. She’ll go off as the heavy favorite in the GI American Oaks. I mean, this horse is absolutely incredible. As mentioned before she’s unbeaten in her five career starts, capturing two Grade I victories. She’s enters this race off a bit of a lay off with her last race coming back in April. In that race at Churchill she struggled a bit out of the gate but, ended up edging out SEARCH RESULTS down the stretch to win the GI Kentucky Oaks.
CLAIRIERE, enters this race with just one career stakes win under her belt. Earlier this year, she captured the Grade II Rachael Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds. She lost to MALATHATT two races prior in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks where she finished 4th. In that race she broke well, settled into the middle of the pack but, didn’t have enough of a kick to catch MALATHATT. More recently she raced in the Grade II Mother Goose at Belmont and finished third. She’s finished in the money every one of her six career starts besides, the Kentucky Oaks. CLAIRIERE and MALATHATT have similar pedigree as they were both fathered by CURLIN. CLAIRIERE is trained by S. Asmussen who trained CURLIN, while Todd Pletcher trains MALATHATT.
MARACUJA, has a familiar foe in MALATHATT where they faced off in the GI Kentucky Oaks. In that race, she wound up finishing seventh being a complete non factor. In the GII Gazelle, she had finished second to SEARCH RESULTS.
ROCKPAPERSCISSORS, has only raced in three races in her career. She broke her maiden just last race in a MSW at Churchill Downs on September 19th of 2020. This three year old filly is came off a massive layoff of nearly a year and in her last year where she came out victorious. In those three races, she didn’t display the speed needed to compete with the favorites but maybe she’s up for the challenge.
Race Preview:
We’ll this is a tough race to find value, due to a small field and a heavy favorite in MALATHAAT. She’s undefeated in her career and seems to be improving in every race. MALATHAAT likes to run off the off the pace and will be joined by the other favorite CLAIRIERE. Make no mistake CLAIRIERE has the closing speed to challenge MALATHAAT in this race. MARACUJA has seen both of these favorites in the GIII Gazelle and was outclassed. ROCKPAPERSCISSORS is some what of a wild card here, having only three career starts. We’ll see if she can handle the step up in class and push the pace.
Front Runners: ROCKPAPERSCISSORS
Off the Pace: MALATHAAT, CLAIRIERE
Closers: MARACUJA
Picks:
BEST BET – WIN: (1) MALATHATT
If you’re looking for any value in this race, single the (1) horse here when playing a multi race exotic ticket. With only four horses in this race, every entry will continue to get bet down limiting the value on even the long shots.
VALUE BET – WIN: (2) MARACUJA
If you’re not looking to back the favorites, look at the MARACUJA. In the Oaks she broke flat footed and never really found her groove. She skipped the Mother Goose but, is said to be doing much better now. With the shorter field, she should get a better start out of the gate and has the ability to run a better race.
Named after the multiple-graded stakes winning mare trained by Hall of Famer H. Allen Jerkens, the Caress was first run in 2008 at seven furlongs on the turf and in 2009 it was contested at six furlongs. Not run in 2010 and 2011; in 2012, it was run at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Caress, a daughter of Storm Cat, retired in 1996 with a record of 13-4-2 from 29 career starts, including victories in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont Park as well as the Beaugay and Athenia, both Grade 3 events at Aqueduct Racetrack.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: III
Race: 10
Post Time: 6:13 PM ET
Length: 5.5 Furlongs
Purse: $200,000
Division: Open | 4 Year Olds & Up
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers
Field:
Caravel (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 7-5
Robin Sparkles (Jose Ortiz), 6-5
Tass (Eric Cancel), 30-1
In Good Spirits (John Velazquez), 8-1
Flower Point (Joel Rosario), 8-1
Jakarta (Luis Saez), 6-1
Horse Preview:
CARAVEL is a four year old mare who enters he first Stakes Race in her career. She’s had eight starts in career, taking home first in six of them and third twice. CARAVEL is coming off back to back victories in 5 Furlong Sprints.
JAKARTA is a six year old mare who has yet to find the winner’s circle in 2021. So far, he has raced in five starts this year finishing (4-4-3-8-4). He won twice in his first two starts back in 2020 then jumped up to Grade III Stakes races where he was outmatched. In his second race, where he won, he ran a distance of a mile. During his struggles, earlier this year, they moved him back to a mile but failed to find any success finishing fourth in that race. In April of this year, he bested IN GOOD SPIRITS in the Giant’s Causeway Stakes where he ran third. Last year she ran in the Caress and finished second running one of the best races of her career.
ROBIN SPARKLES a four year old mare, has not finished worse than second since her first career race. She has some pedigree as the daughter of ELUSIVE QUALITY. In her last eight races, she has won six of them and finished second in the other two. Back in April of 2021, she bested CARAVEL in a 6F Sprint at Belmont where she took second and CARAVEL took third. She has alternated between the turf and dirt during her career but returns to a turf sprint race here where she’s had the most success.
FLOWER POINT, is a five year old mare who is a three time starter in 2021. In his three starts this year he has two fifth place finishes and one win. He won his last time out in an 7F Allowance Race at Belmont. He actually faced ROBIN SPARKLES in a 6F Sprint at Belmont on April 30, 2021. In that race, ROBIN SPARLES would run second and FLOWER POINT would finish fifth as previously mentioned. So far in 2021, he hasn’t run as well as he previously has. His speed figures are not what they used to be and have dropped off. In that last race he won, he ran one of the speed figures in his career so we’ll see if he can follow it up here with an equally impressive performance. He does come from some solid pedigree as the son of POINT OF ENTRY.
TASS, is coming off a bad race where he/she broke late and was never in it. She’s a five year old mare that doesn’t have the class to compete in this race. This will also be her first race this year with her last race coming on September 3rd, 2020.
IN GOOD SPIRITS, a four year old mare who has eleven starts in her career. She’s coming off a bit of a layoff with her last race coming back in April. In that race she stalked the pace but never really kicked down the stretch. Prior to that race, she won an AOC at Fair Grounds. She has some pedigree as the daughter of GHOSTZAPPER who earned over $3,000,000 plus in his career.
Race Preview:
This is a two horse races, as indicated by the odds. ROBIN SPARKLES is a front runner coming off the best race in her career, running an Equibase speed figure of 108. CARAVEL likes to run off the pace a bit, then pull away down the stretch. She doesn’t have the speed as ROBIN SPARKLES and may not be able to close on her if the pace is right. JAKARTA is going to a horse that challenges ROBIN SPARKELS for the lead, and has the speed to do so. If both these horses, go out too fast trying to establish the lead, it may open the race up for some late speed. One of those horses that may take advantage of this is FLOWER POINT. In her last race she came rallied from 8 back to win. IN GOOD SPIRITS will try to hang with CARAVEL off the pace but, I don’t know if she has the ability to win this race given the class of horses here. A year ago, she had the speed needed to compete in this race, but we haven’t seen that speed this year. TASS’s role in this race could be summed up as a potential agent of chaos. She is a front runner that could press the pace with the horses mentioned prior, opening it up for closers/off the pace horses.
Front Runners: ROBIN SPARKLES, JAKARTA, TASS
Off the Pace: CARAVEL, IN GOOD SPIRITS
Closers: FLOWER POINT
Picks:
WIN: (1) CARAVEL
EXACTA: 1/ 2, 4, 6
Again not much value in this race but I think it sets up well for CARAVEL. She’ll be able to sit off the pace and let the front runner’s battle it out. She has the closing speed to chase down everyone of those horses, and should do it here. Hopefully JAKARTA who has run well at Saratoga before has a similar performance and can grab second. IN GOOD SPIRITS should also benefit from the fast pace and close well with CARAVEL.
It’s looking like a chalky day at the Spa on Saturday given the gap in talent.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
