The Stanley Cup Finals are finally upon us as the Montreal Canadians try to dethrone the Tampa Bay Lightning, who look to repeat as Champions. Montreal is hoping to win their first Stanley Cup since 1993. The Canadians and Lightning each have had completely different paths to get to this point. Montreal has been a heavy underdog in every series so far but, has continued to defy the odds. Contrary to the Canadians, the Bolts have been heavy favorites in every series.
Game 1: Montreal Canadians (+170) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-200)
Looking at this series, the main storyline will be the goaltending matchup. Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the playoffs in GSAx and SGAA. However, Carey Price right behind him in both of those categories. The second storyline, will be special teams. The return of Nikita Kucherov has sparked this Tampa Bay powerplay which is converting at a rate of 37.7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Kucherov is a game time decision for tonight’s game after taking a brutal slash in Game 6 vs the Islanders. Another game time decision tonight is Joel Armia, who has been a key contributor to Montreal’s penalty killing success. The Habs have not allowed a powerplay goal in 13 straight games, going 30 for 30 during that period. They come into tonight’s game with a 93.5 penalty kill rate, the best in the playoffs. Montreal plays a neutral zone trap which throws a lot of teams off, by slowing down the opposition trying to enter the attacking zone. They then use this to force turnovers and spark their transition game, leading to scoring chances. The Canadians play the neutral zone trap to perfection which is why it’s been so successful. This playing style is similar to the 2003 New Jersey Devils who went on to win the Stanley Cup that year.
For Game 1 tonight, the Lightning have again increased their fan capacity at Amalie Arena from 14,805 (77.5%) to 16,300 (85.4%). The Bolts have been great all year at home during the regular season and continued that trend in the playoffs. Montreal has been decent in Game 1’s these playoffs. They’ve won 2 out of 3 Game 1’s but most recently lost Game 1 vs Vegas by a score of 4-1. Tampa Bay has struggled in Game 1’s these playoffs losing 2 out of 3. The Lightning enter this game with an implied probability of roughly 70%. At -200 it’s hard to lay that number, especially given what Montreal has been able to do vs heavy favorites. This again is another series where the Canadians continue to be disrespected. They matchup well with the Lightning and have the ability to shut down Tampa Bay’s deadly powerplay. In Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, I’ll take the road underdog in the Montreal Canadians.
Have I mentioned betting baseball can be really frustrating? Cool. Onto my picks (which I dangerously feel really good about today). Let’s go!
Pirates/Rockies over 12 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s a reason this total is so high. A few weeks ago the fledgling Pirates lost 10 games in a row. Since then they’ve won 6 out of their last 9 contests and they’ve averaged a healthy 5 runs per game during that span. Meanwhile, the Rockies continue to demonstrate their split personality, having won 25 of their 31 games at Coors Field and looking like a completely different team when they play there, particularly on offense. Denver will be humid and mild today as the Rockies return home after they predictably lost 4 out of their last 5 games on their latest road trip. Let’s look at some of the disparities in the Rockies’ offense at home/away:
239 runs at home, 97 runs away
391 hits at home, 232 away
.283 batting average at home, .196 away
.473 slugging percentage at home, .296 away
We could go on but you get the point. I can’t pick the Rockies’ side today because I don’t trust Kyle Freeland (7.76 ERA, 1.99 WHIP over 26.2 innings). He looked better in his last start but overall he’s showed a real lack of command and he’s allowed way too many homeruns (9 in his last 5 starts). While Tyler Anderson’s (4.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 80.1 innings) profile isn’t quite as troubling, he still lacks the dynamism and delivery of a dependable starter, as his 4.48 FIP indicates. As I type this I’ve talked myself into a 1.5 unit play (initially I only had 1 unit)– it sets up too well for a bit hitting day. I’ll take the over on two teams ready to bust out their bats against two below-average pitchers.
Yankees win (-153), 2 units: The Yankees are no-doubt happy to return home after getting cleanly swept by their rival Red Sox at Fenway. Now down a full 6.5 games in the AL East, the Yankees welcome the Los Angeles Angels to town. In 40 innings, today’s NYY starter Michael King (4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) has had his ups and downs. I like his profile a little more than most. He does a great job at containing homeruns (.9/9 innings) and his LOB rate is a healthy 73%. His four-seam velocity is also exceptional. Today the Yankees will oppose Dylan Bundy (6.68 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 63.1 innings), who seems to be on the decline. As FanGraphs noted, “every one of his pitches has dropped significantly in both raw spin and BU; the smallest drops came in at -160 rpm and -1.4 BU.” With Mike Trout still on the sidelines and the Yankees looking for some positive regression, I have to take the home team Bronx-Bombers at a decent price.
Astros -2.5 (even), 1 unit: This is one of the most lopsided setups I’ve seen in awhile. Greinke will oppose Baltimore’s Thomas Eshelman (7.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP over 8 innings), who just got smashed 5 days ago by the Astros in only his second start. Now Houston is back at home, the bats are looking to return to form and the Orioles have to get by Houston’s ace in Zack Greinke (3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP over 98.2 innings)? Good luck Orioles (watch, with my luck, Baltimore explodes and they win 10-2, ha).
Giants win (+150, 1 unit) and Full Game under 8 (+105), 1 unit: This isn’t a parlay but I wouldn’t hate that move. June hasn’t been great for Trevor Bauer (2.57 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 101.2 innings). Though his profile still shows strong numbers, the Dodgers’ 30 year old right hander recently said “I have the worst home run luck in the league” on Twitter. He sounds frustrated. This blog on FanGraphs disagrees with his assertion but be that as it may, Bauer has a subpar 3.55 ERA in June and his FIP is nearing the 4.00 mark. He’ll have to improve today against the Giants and their starter, Anthony DeSclafani (2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.33 FIP over 87.2 innings). San Francisco has won 10 of their last 12 games and many of those victories can be credited to their burgeoning offense, which has averaged nearly 7 runs (6.91) over that span. They also still own a 3 1/2 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. The Giants have owned the Dodgers lately, winning 3 straight against last year’s champs, and they’ll no doubt head into today’s matchup full of confidence. I’ll take the Giants for plus money in a low scoring game.
It was another good week in NBA betting for yours truly, going 11-5 overall. Here are my best bets and predictions for today’s game five of the West Finals, happy Monday!
Parlay- Suns win + Clippers/Suns under 214.5, 1 unit to win 1.76 units:
I started off the morning the same way I always do– reviewing yesterday’s bets, figuring out where I went right and where I went wrong, and looking at the lines and opportunities ahead today. Then I watched the video of Chris Paul talking about the growth of DeAndre Ayton. Paul nearly choked up talking about his young teammate. Ayton has really showed up in the playoffs, dominating the rim with high percentage shots, sharking offensive and defensive rebounds and playing grown-man defense. While the NBA is more dependent than ever on guards and high-tempo perimeter shooting, great teams need a front court that can take over a game if the shots aren’t falling from the outside. Ayton has proven he’s every bit the front court general Phoenix needs and he’s a huge reason why they keep winning.
All that aside, it was the way Chris Paul talked about Ayton that really got to me. Paul really cares– not just about winning or about finally getting a ring– he really cares about his teammates. Hard when he has to be but always supportive and professorial, Chris Paul has put on a leadership clinic in his first year with Phoenix. I think it’s fair to say this team wouldn’t be nearly as mature and focused if it wasn’t for the 16 year veteran.
The Suns are such a complete team, and I don’t only mean the way their roster is constructed. They’re complete because every single player understands and maximizes their role. Under the direction of CP3 and coach Monty Williams, everyone gets to contribute in their own unique way. At times Devin Booker’s ego feels disruptive to their chemistry and team-basketball mentality, but CP3 and his coach have ways to modify those interruptions. Booker is a better player for it and with his enigmatic offensive ability, he can shine without taking on too much of that superstar-load.
Three out of four of the games in this series have gone under 207 points. Game four was only 164 total points. The Clippers and Suns are playing really aggressive, smart defense and I see no evidence to suggest that this game will result in anything different. Of course the Suns are back at their home arena where their offense often thrives, but I still think that favors the under. At home, Phoenix should be able to gain a lead by margin early, which only enables a more comfortable and strategic approach for their defense. In two games at Phoenix, the Clippers kept the contests competitive thanks to superior perimeter shooting. Under the pressure of elimination and in front of a hostile crowd, I don’t think they’ll be so lucky in game five.
With Kawhi officially out tonight and a tired Paul George desperately, barely surviving as the team’s sole star (he was 5/20 from the field in game four at the Staples Center), this feels like the game where Phoenix closes it out. The last thing Monty Williams and his team wants is to let this series drag on and return to the Staples Center for game six. That has yet another comeback story written all over it for LAC. The Chris-Paul-led Suns are too cohesive and too talented to let that happen, especially at their home arena. Let’s start this week out right and shoot for the parlay for nearly twice the return!
MLB
Colorado at Milwaukee 2:10 pm
Gonzalez vs Lauer
Pick: COL Over 3.5 (-124) LEAN
Lauer 10.50 ERA last 3 starts
Lauer 7.20 ERA last 5 starts vs COL
COL batting .277 vs LHP last 10 games
Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts by Lauer
The AFC North certainly became a great division last year with 3 teams making the playoffs. The Steelers were hot for a while until they caught the injury bug. The Browns have bought a ton of talent while the Ravens are still very powerful. The Bengals are the team that needs to step up this year, but I don’t know if that will happen just yet. This division has to face the NFC North and the AFC West. This schedule isn’t exactly easy and the at large games will make the biggest. No major coaching changes throughout the offseason.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers – Vegas Win total – 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: 2.75
Schedule – Hard – At Large games vs Tennessee, @ Buffalo, vs Seattle
Key losses: OLB Bud Dupree, RB James Conner, CB Mike Hilton, RT Matt Feiler, LT Allejandro Villenueva
Key additions: T Joe Haeg, FS Miles Killebrew
Key Draft Picks: RB Najee Harris, TE Pat Freiermuth and a bunch of Meh
Summary: This Steelers team has a very weird year in 2020. They had an extremely easy schedule for the first 11 games or so and then the schedule had gotten much harder for their last 5 games. The Steelers lost a bunch on defense and even more on offensive line. I do not like what this team did in free agency to mitigate that attrition. In staying that, the expectations of this team are pretty low for a supposed very good team returning their quarterback in Big Ben as well as their coach Mike Tomlin. I love the Najee Harris draft pick but I am worried for the blocking. If the Steelers can hold it together in the trenches, they could be the actual sleeper team in the AFC North at +400 to win the division.
My Number: 8.8
Action – No Play but lean +400 to win division
2. Baltimore Ravens – Vegas Win Total – 10.5 juiced to the over
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At Large games vs Indianapolis, @ Miami, LA Rams
Key losses: OLB Matt Judon, DE Yannick Ngakoue, RB Mark Ingram, DE Jihan Ward, C Matt Skura, G DJ Fluker, LT Orlando Brown
Key additions: G Kevin Zietler, LT Alejandro Villanueva, WR Sammy Watkins
Key Draft Picks: WR Rashod Bateman, EDGE Odafe Oweh, G Ben Cleveland
Summary: Once again this Ravens team made their way into the playoffs with aggressive defense and smart play calling. John Harbaugh is the heart and soul of this team and whenever we decide to doubt him, he always seems to prove us wrong. In saying that, I really do not like the moves that this team made. They sacrificed their offensive line for more play makers at the skill positions, but what good does that do for a one read and run guy like Lamar Jackson? I am not sure that I agree with skimping on their offensive line and I also think that the book is really out on how to beat Lamar Jackson. Do not over-pursue and make him be a pocket passer to the sidelines. Many teams are still too incompetent to figure this out. Baltimore had a medium hard schedule last year and will have a hard schedule this year. Their Pythagorean wins were at about 12 wins last year and I think that they could achieve that this year.
My Number: 12.04 wins.
Action – Strong lean to the over but it is hard to trust this new offensive line in a strong division.
3. Cleveland Browns – Vegas win total 10.5 juiced to the under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: 2.75
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Houston, @ New England, Arizona
Summary: The Browns finished with a nice 11 win record in a difficult AFC north division but their Pythagorean total was only 8.06 adjusted. This team overachieved. This team is coming into this 2021 season with a very fortunate schedule. Houston should not be a problem, the Patriots are not the same Patriots that we grew up with, and Arizona has their defensive issues. One thing for certain is that Baker Mayfield has to take one more step forward for this team to be elite. The amount of Talent on this Browns team only rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and it is time to put up or shut up I have 11.36 wins as my number but I am going to wait on it to decide what to do later. Really hard for me to take an over when their expected wins from 2021 were so low.
My Number: 11.36 Lean over
Action: Strong Lean over and they have the easiest road to win this division.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Vegas win total 6.5 juiced to the under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: -7
Schedule – Hard – At large vs Jacksonville, @ NY Jets, San Francisco
Key losses: DE Carl Lawson, CB William Jackson, WR AJ Green
Key additions: DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Mike Hilton, CB Chidobe Awuzie, LT Riley Reiff, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key Draft Picks: WR Jamar Chase, OT Jackson Carmin, EDGE Joseph Ossai, C Trey Hill
Summary: This Bengals team had a huge opportunity to draft Penei Sewell but instead to get a wide receiver that Joe Burrow was very familiar with. What does that mean? Well, this is the NFL and the windows are a lot tighter than Joe saw in the weak SEC defenses of 2019. In saying that, this team at least grabbed Clemson Tackle Jackson Carmin in the second round. The issue that I have with that is that the big knock against Clemson last year was their offensive line, and I am not sure that this was a great pick. One thing is for sure is that teams with great defensive lines like the Ravens are going to smash this team in the trenches and I am concerned that Joe Burrow will be working overtime once again. If I am wrong and this offensive line does improve, the Bengals still left themselves with a pretty weak defense. Lean under
My Number: 5.39
Action: Strong lean to the under and I might play it
This will be a quick article since it’s Sunday (aka family day) and I need to get a few things done around the house. It’s been another winning week overall in MLB — let’s keep it rollin’! Here are my picks for Sunday:
Reds win (-146), 1.5 units: The Reds have had their way with the Braves when they have the pitching advantage and today should be no different. Tyler Mahle (3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 78.1 innings) faces off against Atlanta’s unproven Kyle Muller, the 6’6″ 23 year old who’s getting his first shot at the majors. I’ll take the commanding Mahle and a Reds team who’s comfortable at home.
Phillies/Mets under 7.5 (-115): Zach Wheeler (2.36 ERA, 0.98 WHIP over 99.1 innings) and Marcus Stroman (2.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 85.1 innings) have very similar, commanding profiles and I trust each of them over the inconsistent and underperforming offenses at play today. I don’t see many runs at Citi Field this afternoon.
Yankees win (-150), 2 units and Yankees/Red Sox under 9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I was talking to my buddy about this game and we agreed– I’m not sure why the Yankees are at this value with Gerrit Cole (2.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP over 96.2 innings) on the mound but I can’t not bet on it. The Red Sox have been hot behind the plate in this series at Fenway but the games haven’t been blowouts. Boston sends out Eduardo Rodriguez (6.07 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 72.2 innings), the leftie whose numbers are a little misleading. The 6 year starter hasn’t shown great command but his 2.65 FIP and 3.50 xFIP show a better overall profile. Still, Cole should be able to keep the Boston bats at bay and I trust that the Yankees hitters can find some offense today while their ace brings the heat. I’ll take the under and the Yankees– a parlay ain’t a bad idea either.
We got the redemption we wanted last night, going 2-0 in under bets on the Suns/Clippers’ game four. That contest totaled only 164 points, so I dare say our analysis was dead on. Tonight’s series is a tad more volatile but I like a few angles to keep our win streak alive. Onto my picks!
Hawks win (+150), 1 unit and Bucks/Hawks 1st half over 110 (-115), 2 units and Trae Young over 29.5 (-122), 1.5 units:
The most dominant side of the Bucks was on full display 2 nights ago as the former MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and his supporting cast blew out the Hawks in game two. Gaining a 30+ point lead by half time, it really wasn’t much of a game for the final 24 minutes. It also blew up all of our prop bets. That’s okay, these things happen, and I expect a different result Sunday. The Bucks are not only the better team on paper but functionally they have the best player on the court in Antetokounmpo and a much deeper and more experienced team. We get that.
But what we also get is that the Hawks are extremely resilient. Other Hawks’ series have looked like this. Atlanta was beat handily by the Knicks at MSG in game two. In games two and three against the Sixers, the Hawks lost by 16 points in each contest. And what did Atlanta do? Bow down? Call it quits? Nope. Trae Young followed it up with huge games, both in points and assists, and the Hawks took back the series momentum. The Bucks are well-balanced and capable of blowing out any NBA team when they’re at their best. When they’re not at their best, they’re clumsy. Middleton can be wildly inconsistent, Giannis can’t be counted on to make free throws, Jrue Holiday isn’t always this aggressive and other skill players like PJ Tucker and Brook Lopez can’t solely hold the team on their shoulders. The crowd at State Farm Arena will be absolutely raucous for game three and I think Trae, Collins, Capela and others will feast off the energy.
I also think the offenses will keep winning the on-court battle in this series. I like the over for the full game too but I like the first half even more. A new environment and new nerves will set in for Milwaukee but I don’t think that’ll stop them from scoring. Like I said in my first article on the first game in this series, I really like how both offenses match up. The Bucks are too big and strong for Atlanta and the Hawks are too young and athletic for the Bucks. Of course the boat-race that took place Friday was a good example of what Milwaukee can do when firing on all cylinders but the Hawks won’t look that vulnerable on Sunday. The greats always redeem themselves in the next game and yes, I consider Trae young among the “great” players in the NBA right now (and I don’t consider many in that category). Expect a ton of points right from the onset as both teams attempt to impose their will with their unique offensive styles. As the game wanes on, defensive adjustments could slow down the pace and production, thus my play on the first half total only.
Do I think it’s likely that the opposite narrative will unfold Sunday and the Hawks will overwhelm and demolish the Bucks? Not necessarily. But do I think there’s a better chance of that happening than what we saw Friday night? Absolutely. This game should be way more entertaining, Trae will return to form, and I like the Hawks to remind Milwaukee why they shouldn’t be taken lightly once again. Buckle up.
I think the books might have overlooked this a bit. The wind is swirling at Tiger stadium at 15+MPH blowing into the left foul line. Lefty, Framber Valdez is pitching for the Astros with a nice 3.77 FIP with a .99 Whip. What’s even better is that the Tigers rank dead last in batting against Lefties. The price actually tells you that. A Mize man is pitching for the tigers today. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) isn’t that good at 4.8 but at least he only has a 1.12 WHIP and a 3.6 ERA. I don’t understand why this total is so large when the wind is blowing in like this vs a home team who struggles to hit the ball. This is also one of those early games where the batters could take a little time to get it rolling. I think in a 7 inning game, 7 runs is a blessing to take a shot at and we will put 2.5 stars on it.
Under 7 runs – 2.5 stars
LA Angels vs Rays -152 O/U 7.5
This is an interesting game here. Tampa ended up eaking out the win yesterday but I have to wonder if this is one of those breather days. Tampa Bay didn’t get that nice Thursday off and had to finish out their series win vs the Red Sox before playing this Angel team who had to travel. The Angels did however get a day off and they now have a very good pitcher in Alex Cobb who has a not so good ERA of 4.41 but a nice FIP of 2.39. Positive regression is what I am looking for here. The Rays have lefty Shane McClanahan on the mound today who is an average at best pitcher showing a 4.0 FIP and a 1.3 WHIP. The Angels actually rank a nice 5th in wRC+ vs lefties and even though Mike Trout is still injured, this team could make a little noise at least the first 5 of these innings vs a tired Rays squad. Taking the value here.
This fight really stuck out to me. This is the light heavyweight class so you know the sparks will by flying. Marcin Prachnio is 32 years old and 14-5 with 10 KOs, 1 Submission and 3 decisions while Isaac Villanueva is 37 years old, 18-11 with 15 KOs and 3 decisions. What’s obvious is that Prachnio is a 1-2 paying favorite here and will most likely win this fight. In Marcin’s last 9 fights, 7 of them did not get past the first round. This is due to his bulldog type fighting style where is isn’t afraid to sacrifice his jaw to try and get an early knockout. When Marcin stepped up in competition, he was KO’d by borderline tier 1 / tier 2 fighters. Marcin is a tier 2 fighter himself. Isaac Villanueva has been KO’d by worse fighters and that is why he is the dog. Isaac has a straight up fighting style and has never submitted anyone in his career. As a matter of fact, Isaac’s last 7 fights were all KOs that didn’t make it half way through the fight. I think what I am getting at should be quite obvious by now. Marcin towers over Ike in significant strikes landed per minute at 5.4 to 3.6 respectively. The question is, can I trust Marcin’s jaw at -200? Not at that price but I will take that juicy plus money on the under 1.5 rounds.
Under 1.5 rounds +135 – 2.5 star
Raoni Barcelos vs Timur Valiev +180
15-2 Timur Valiev’s nickname is “lucky” which he was very lucky in his first UFC debut 2 fights ago when he knock knocked out hard by Trevin Jones only for the fight to be called a no contest due to a failed marijuana drug test afterwards from Jones. Timur is actually a weight class above Bamtam but decided to cut weight to try this weight class for the first time. Timur’s only UFC win was from beating Martin Day who really didn’t belong. Raoni Barcelos is a very up and coming fighter even at age 34. He has 16 wins and only 1 loss a long time ago in the beginning of his career. Raoni is 5-0 in UFC contention. Now both fighters have pretty equal stats when it comes to take downs and strikes but I believe that Raoni faced the stiffer competition being in the UFC longer. Looking at the way that these fighters fight, I have to give the edge to Raoni Barcelos who is also a very strong favorite but I also think that this fight does go the distance. 6 of Timur’s last 9 fights have went to decision while Raoni’s last 2 fights went to decision and he should have a tougher time knocking out Timur being that Timur “technically” has never been knocked out. Over 2.5 rounds in this fight is -225 and that makes me comfortable taking the Barcelos to win by decision at +125 rather than the fight in general at -225.
A humbling night Friday as we went 0-3 in all of our player props. It’s a great lesson to remember in sports betting: props are hugely dependent on game narrative. In a game where the Bucks blew out the Hawks and were up by 30+ at halftime, most props for starting players had a 0% chance of ultimately hitting. It’s all good — all we can do is shrug it off and own our 7-4 record this week, which still ain’t too shabby. Onto my game four predictions between the Suns and Clippers!
Suns/Clippers 1st quarter under 54 (-115), 1.5 units and Suns/Clippers full game under 218 (-110), 2 units:
Like last night’s game I’ll avoid picking a side tonight and instead I’ll stick to totals (I have to be honest, I’m being a little gun-shy with player props today, although I don’t think a bet on Paul George’s point-prop is a bad look). Game three at the Staples Center was a defensive contest for all 48 minutes, as we expected. It’s also why the Clippers were able to control the game. This is the Clippers style of basketball: methodical offense, gritty defense, perimeter shooting, and don’t make too many mistakes. For as solid a team as Phoenix is, they had more fouls, less rebounds, and didn’t benefit from a ton of points in the paint or on fast breaks in game three. All those categories are areas where the Suns usually excel. Like the Clippers, the Suns are well-coached and highly efficient, but it was that scrappy LAC defense that made all the difference on Thursday.
The Clippers are one of the slowest teams in the NBA playoffs and they’re only getting slower, now ranked 15th out of 16 teams this postseason. At home with a crowd behind their every move, they can get away with that sort of tempo. It’s also why they struggle on the road, especially against an excitable Suns team that doesn’t miss when they’re in rhythm at their arena. Phoenix isn’t far behind in pace, ranking 11th out of 16 teams. For all the fanfare that Paul George and Devin Booker and others get for their offensive prowess, it’s really the defenses that have separated these elite teams from other contenders. Each unit was top 10 in defensive efficiency all year and the Suns allowed the fewest points out of any team in the association during the regular season. The Clippers allowed the 7th fewest. My point in all of this is that the Suns and Clippers are settling into who they truly are– teams built to win because of their dynamic shooting ability and because of their exceptional defensive effort. Game four feels like it’ll be another tightly contested battle with each team struggling to find clear shots.
If the first quarter under doesn’t hit, which we expect, the full game total should reflect the eventual pace of this game and give us a + unit day. The addition of Chris Paul back from COVID protocol means the Phoenix offense becomes more calculated while the technical shooters of LAC prefer not to push the tempo either. This is an extremely pivotal game four, especially for the Clippers, and neither team can’t let it get out of hand early. Expect CLAMPS on defense from the get-go and a close game throughout.
