MLB Picks and Predictions – June 22, 2021

By

-

June 22, 2021

Astros players celebrating after a big homerun.

We had a great start to the week, going 3-0 in MLB bets yesterday, including 2 + money wins! Let’s keep the train rollin’ (can I get a choo-chooo) as we head to Tuesday!

Lean, Reds win (-103): The Reds got bested late last night in extra innings to seal our sweep, but I think this may be the spot where Cincinnati gets some redemption. Wade Miley (2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 68.2 innings) hits the mound against the unproven Bailey Ober (3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 17 innings) Tuesday. The Reds have lost 5 straight but at least their bats looked alive last night. Miley is coming off 2 straight subpar performances and will look to turn that around in the early game this afternoon. I’d put a light unit on this if it wasn’t for Minnesota’s offense since they have performed noticeably well against lefties (.257 batting average, .450 slugging percentage). Consider a play on the away team but approach this with caution– the Reds are doing just enough to lose in every situation lately and it’s a bit concerning.

White Sox -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Should the White Sox always be an automatic play against lefties? No. But are they an automatic play against a bad leftie pitcher and a bad team? Yes. After a good start to the year, Tyler Anderson (4.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP 73.2 innings) has been very hittable this season, displaying a 5.76 ERA in May and a 5.71 ERA so far in June. Recently his BAPIB and HR allowance are also on the rise, which isn’t a good projection heading into Tuesday. The White Sox are always a confident offense but against a leftie they’re really exceptional, flexing a .456 slugging percentage and .274 batting average, both well above their marks against a right-handed thrower. Lucas Giolito (3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 81.2 innings) hits the mound for Chicago and while he’s been a little exposed lately, I expect some positive regression today against a Pirates team that’s touch and go behind the plate. The Pirates also own one of the worst batting averages (.228, good for 26th in MLB) and the worst slugging percentages (.352) in MLB. I’ll take my chances on the Sox by margin for a unit and a half.

Astros -1.5 (-130), 2 units: The Orioles are good at surprising solid teams and when there’s value on Baltimore I love to seize the day. Unfortunately I don’t think this series will present many of those opportunities. Houston’s ace Zack Greinke (3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 91.1 innings) has been a workhorse this season. He’s had a few slip-ups recently but overall his profile shows his consistent command and ability to limit hard contact. He’ll oppose Baltimore Jorge Lopez (5.95 ERA, 1.49 WHIP over 65 innings), who brings a strong arm but has really struggled to prevent big hits, allowing 3.74 HR/9 innings, which is (for lack of a better word) quite horrendous. The Astros are white hot right now: they’re 10-2 over their last 12 games and they’ve won 8 straight. If this game is still played (it’s a rainy day in Baltimore but looks like it could dry up by first pitch), I like Houston to embarrass the home-team O’s once again.

Mariners (-160), 1.6 units: Nothing takes the wind out of Colorado’s sails more than losses at home, where they tend to thrive thanks to the luxurious high-altitude setting in Denver. Now the Rockies hit the road once again where they’re an abysmal 5-27 to take on the surging Mariners. Seattle has really been impressive lately, winning 7 out of their last 8 games and climbing up the AL West standings to position themselves just 2 games under Oakland for 2nd place. While the Mariners’ bats still struggle to deliver consistent production, lately they’ve been more than viable. A recent 4-0 series sweep over Tampa Bay, where they won 2 of those contests by margin, must be an extra boost in confidence, too. Today Seattle sends Chris Flexen (4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 67.2 innings) to the dirt, who we’ve seen throw some real gems in April and June. His 3.79 FIP, 0.93 HR/9 innings and 71.6% LOB percentage speak to his solid command. The Rockies, meanwhile, are starting the vulnerable Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA, 2.27 WHIP over 20.2 innings), who hasn’t looked steady at all since returning to action in late May. While we expect some positive regression from the 5 year starter, his numbers are alarmingly trending in the wrong direction and we can’t trust that this will be the start where he turns it around; that’s especially true against this confident Seattle unit at home. I’m on the Mariners today to earn us 1 unit.

Clippers vs. Suns Game 2 – Pick and Prediction – June 22, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 21, 2021

Paul George vs. Devin Booker in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

The Clippers and Suns played an entertaining game one but it was Devin Booker that stole the show, scoring 40 points and snatching 13 rebounds and 11 assists to lead his team to a win. Back at their home arena, the Suns will look to take a commanding 2-0 lead while LAC will compete desperately to prevent that from happening. Onto my picks for game two!

Clippers +6 (-115), 2 units and
1st Quarter under 56 (-110), 1.5 units and
Paul George over 30.5 points (-130), 1.3 units:

I’ll hit an explanation for each of these picks in the proceeding paragraphs. Before I do that, I have to say that I really love the teams that are in the West Finals. Think about it — we have the Kawhi-less Clippers, which is a huge test for the depth of their team and an even bigger test for “playoff-Paul” as he looks to shake off the stigma of failure in the postseason. On the other side we’re anxiously awaiting the return of Chris Paul, the heralded but still underestimated veteran point guard who, next to Lebron, might be the best court general in the NBA right now. On the same team is Devin Booker, an awakening giant who’s at the brink of superstardom after he dropped 40 in game one. This entire series should be great TV.

Onto my rationale. The Clippers played well on Sunday; well enough to beat a lot of NBA teams. The Suns played phenomenally. They shot a staggering 55% from the field, out-rebounded, out-assisted, and out-shot LAC from the free throw line, dominated in fast break opportunities (16 to 4), and had 54 points in the paint (LAC only had 34). Devin Booker was dominant but so was his entire team. Six different Suns scored in the double-digits. The Suns are one of those teams that when they’re hot, they’re really hot. In that way they live up to their name but let’s not overreact. Remember, this is the same Clippers team that was down 2-0 to the Jazz and then lost Kawhi when the series was 2-2. They closed it out in the next 2 games, one of which was on the road, without their mega-star and never looked back. That was against the NBA’s best team in the regular season.

The Suns are good, really good, but the Clippers are still a deeper and more technically skilled team. That’s true even without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers’ bench players could be starters on a lot of NBA rosters and LAC was top 5 in defense and offensive efficiency for the majority of the year. They also led the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. While I’m not suggesting that means that LAC will win this series, I am suggesting that this line is wrong. Even on the road, when we’re given 6 points with a team as capable as the Clippers, we can’t pass on it unless there are grave circumstances to do so.

Phoenix is capable of going on runs because of their electric shooters. Led by Devin Booker, Crowder, Bridges, Payne and others off the bench can all nail shots from the perimeter. When Chris Paul is facilitating all that talent it’s really tough to stop. In that way Kawhi Leonard’s absence as a defender certainly hurts LAC but it’s not a death sentence. Tyronn Lue and the Clippers realize they need to improve their defensive effort in game two. Due to the big pressure of the moment, it’s not uncommon to see NBA games where the scoring is lower in the 1st and 4th quarters and higher in the 2nd and 3rd. That’s what we saw in game one and I think we’ll see a similar thing in game two. Look for lower scoring in the 1st quarter as each team attempts to gain control of the contest. If there’s a surge of buckets in the middle two quarters, look for a live total that’s too high and hit the under.

Finally, it goes without say that this is a huge moment for Paul George. Without Kawhi, George has scored 37, 28, and 34 points in three playoff games. In game one he scored 34 points even though he only shot 10/26 from the field. In George’s mind, that’s not enough. While the Suns have a fantastic defense capable of silencing star players, they’re probably very satisfied with their performance in game one. Without making too many adjustments, look for Paul George to take advantage and keep shouldering the offensive load for his team. He’s still their best offensive performer with Kawhi out and if LAC wants to win, he’ll need to be aggressive from the get-go.

The truth is, I want the Suns to win this series. They’re extremely fun to watch, they’re young, and I’m all-in on buying Booker stock. I just can’t imagine them winning by more than 2 possessions in game two. This should be a very contentious, very testy showdown between these two balanced, elite units. Expect another entertaining 48 minutes!

NHL Preview & Picks – June 21, 2021

By

Patrick Gates

-

June 21, 2021

The NHL Playoffs continue to deliver. Last night, Vegas snuck out a win to even up the Series at 2. Today we have Game 5, between the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

New York Islanders (+155) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-190)

The Lighting come into this game as heavy home favorites after dropping Game 4 on the road 3-2. Ryan Pulock was the hero for the Islanders last game as he made a spectacular save with his hand on the goal line as time expired to preserve the lead. New York travels to Tampa where they were able to win Game 1 by a score of 2-1. The Islanders have given the defending Stanley Cup Champions a better series than last year, and continue to show that they belong with this team.

Andrei Vasilevskiy and Semyon Varlamov have both been outstanding this series which is why the under is 3-1 this Series. In that one game that went over, the Isles gave up 5 powerplay opportunities to the Bolts. For the first time in this series Andrei Vasilevskiy finished a game with a – GSAx. Its safe to say he didn’t play his best game which contributed to the Lightning’s loss. However, I wouldn’t expect this to become a trend. Vasilevskiy is leading the playoffs with a crazy +18.2 GSAx. Opposite Vasilevskiy, Varlamov has been confirmed for the Islanders tonight who posts a +2.1 GSAx in the post season.

In tonight’s game, I’m looking to back the Bolts at home. The Lightning have an incredible track record of not dropping back to back games in the playoffs. After Vasilevskiy’s tough performance in Game 4, I also look for him to rebound at home. Even though this is a big number, I like the Bolts to get it done Game 5.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -190 (Risk 1.9 Units)

MLB Picks and Predictions – June 21, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 21, 2021

A Twins base runner after a big hit, smiling as he rounds the dirt.

The Summer Solstice has officially passed, I’m back on the grid with 5 bars on my phone and as the NBA season winds down to only 4 teams remaining, we can continue to focus more on America’s past-time. After a winning week betting MLB, here are Monday’s picks:

Indians (+135), 1 unit: Aaron Civale (3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over 93 innings) has a good track record on the road, where he’s 5-1 with a 3.69/4.04 ERA/xERA split and 1.06 WHIP in 46 innings. That bodes well for him today since he’ll be facing a Cubs club that can’t seem to muster any offense lately. Chicago has scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 8 games and somehow have only managed 11 hits in a 3-game series vs the Marlins. That’s awfully crappy. Over their last 5 games, the Cubbies have 18 hits total and do not have more than 5 hits in any single game over their last 5 games. Yikes. Adbert Alzolay (4.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 57.2 innings) is coming off the 10-day injured list after suffering a blister on his middle finger. His numbers are good but unfortunately modern baseball isn’t just about great pitching and with the way Chicago’s been lacking any offensive prowess, I like this spot way better for Cleveland. I think “the Land” gets a win today.

Twins (+105), 1.5 units: These are two teams going in opposite directions but the Reds are under the impression that Tyler Mahle (3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 74.1 innings) can be their savior and pluck them off the schneid. I can’t say I blame them– Mahle has had an very good season, allowing just under 1 homerun per 9 innings, an 11.1% HR/FB ratio and a solid LOB percentage of 75.9%. The issue is with Cincinnati’s bats, who all but fell asleep in their latest series against San Diego. J.A. Happ (6.12 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 60.1 innings) doesn’t bring good numbers into Monday but he’s due for some positive regression. This could be the spot. Happy is better than his stats indicate and even though his velocity is down a tick and his command can be shaky, he’s at home behind an offense that’s ultra-confident. I like this setup for the Twins for a little + money today.

Padres (-130), 1.3 units: Two NL West kings are surging and they’re neck-n-neck vying for that second place spot under San Francisco. Today they’ll both send one of their best pitchers to the mound, Julio Urias (3.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 84 innings) for LAD and Yu Darvish (2.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over 84 innings) for San Diego. While it’s always hard to pick a side in this rivalry, I think the Padres are in a better spot. They trust Yu Darvish, even though he’s had two straight starts that were far from the gems we’ve seen all year, but for me that’s even more reason to bet on him tonight. The Padres have a slight edge in their series with LAD and they’re better at home, where they’re 25-14 overall. They’re also fresh off an impressive series win against Cincinnati while the Dodgers predictably punked the MLB’s worst in the Diamondbacks. LAD stays on the road and travels to face a far better opponent on Monday. San Diego looked average in mid-June but they turned that ship around against the Reds and I expect them to carry that momentum into tonight. I’ll take the Padres at a nice number to win 1 unit.

NFC West 2021 Preview – Season Win Totals – Sports Investing

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

June 21, 2021

The NFC West changed hands quickly with the 2019 champion San Francisco 49ers going from 1st to worst due to massive injuries and a very difficult schedule. This division is by far the most interesting one for me for 2021 being that the Rams made a huge move at quarterback. The 49ers now have an easier schedule and should be a lot healthier, while the Seahawks still have Russell Wilson. The Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray are looking to improve when they barley missed the playoffs last year due to their loss to the Rams at the end of the season. The NFC West has to play the AFC South and the NFC North which should be relatively easier than the other NFC teams.

1. Seattle Seahawks – Win Total 9.5 juiced to the over -125

Seattle’s Power Rating: 2.75

Schedule – Medium Easy – At large vs New Orleans, @ Washington, @ Pittsburgh

Key losses: CB Shaquill Griffen, DT Jarran Reed, CB Quinton Dunbar

Key additions: DE Kerry Hyder, TE Gerald Everette, CB Akello Witherspoon

Key draft pick: WR Duane Eskridge

Summary: Here we go again with the immensely over-achieving Russel Wilson led Seahawks. Wait… I said that last year as well. Seattle had one of the worst defenses in the league last year and they still haven’t made a switch off defensive coordinator Ken Norton. This team really didn’t do anything much in free agency and they only had about 3 draft picks last year due to poor trades. The good news for Seattle is that they have a very easy schedule for team playing their at large game vs New Orleans who is fresh out of fa-Breese. Seattle’s Pythagorean winning percentage was much lower than their actual wins of 12 games in 2020. Part of that was due to an easier schedule and a clutch Russell Wilson. Even with the minimal upgrades to this team, the schedule puts my wins at 10.1 but it isn’t enough to make a play.

My number: 10.1

Action – No Play

2. LA RAMS – Win total 10 juiced to the over -140

LA Rams power rating: 5.

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs Tampa Bay, @ NY Giants, @ Baltimore

Key losses: QB Jared Goff, S Jon Johnson, OLB Samson Ebukam, CB Troy Hill, DE Morgan Fox, TE Gerald Everett and a few more.

Key additions: QB Matthew Stafford, WR DeShawn Jackson

Key Draft Picks: WR Tutu Atwell, and a bunch of meh

Summary: For whatever that the Rams gained by getting Matthew Stafford in that massive trade with the Lions, this team lost on defense. The Rams have acquired over the years some high priced players and that never bodes well for free agency and my biggest issue is the Rams not having a lot of top draft picks over the years. What the Rams at least retain is their great coach in Sean McVeigh. Maybe he will be enough to live up to all the hype that this team is getting, but I really do not trust their defense as much as last year after losing a few keys players and it also looks like their schedule will be the hardest one in this division. Lots of this might not matter because Stafford was brought in for the playoffs and that is what is really important here. Let’s see if he moves the needle come that time.

My Number: 10.76

Action – No Play

3. Arizona Cardinals – Win Total 8.5 juiced to the under -130

Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: 2

Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Carolina, @ Dallas and @ Cleveland

Key losses: CB Patrick Peterson, RB Kenyon Drake, OLB Hassan Reddick, DE Angelo Blackson, OLB Devondre Campbell

Key additions: DE JJ Watt, WR AJ Green, CB Malcomb Butler, RB James Conner, SS Shawn Williams

Key Draft Picks: LB Zaven Collins, WR Rondale Moore, CB Marco Wilson

Summary: Kyler Murray is coming into his 3rd year and the team has made some big time moves. Does that mean that the moves were the right ones? Well, I am not that sure. Hassan Reddick is gone and I thought he was worth keeping around. I really thought Patrick Peterson was washed up so I agreed with him going. I really like the additions of JJ Watt and AJ Green, but the big problem for me is that the Cardinals really didn’t fix their defensive line all that much to stop the run. Arizona ranked 21st in opponent rushing yards per game and the only reason that it wasn’t higher was due to some of the shootouts that this team was involved in. The good news is that I do not think that this team got worse as a whole, and if they actually are able to stop the run this year, they might be that surprise team in this division. JJ Watt will be the leader of this defense and there is some young talent with Simmons in his second year and a great draft pick in Zaven Collins across from him. My number is close to the win total.

My Number: 8.56

Action – Lean Over

4. San Francisco 49ers – Win total is 10 juiced to the over -125

San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 2.25

Schedule – Easy – At large games vs Atlanta, @ Philadelphia, @ Cincinnati

Key losses: QB Jimmy Garopollo?, DE Kerry Hyder, CB Akello Witherspoon, DE Solomon Thomas, WR Marquise Goodwin, Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh,

Key additions: C Alex Mack, OLB Samson Ebukam, WR Mohammed Sanu

Key Draft Picks: QB Trey Lance, G Aaron Banks, RB Trey Sermon

Summary: What the hell is this team doing and why the hell did they move up this far to draft Trey Lance? I must say that being only 1 year out of the Super bowl, the San Francisco 49ers are looking quite desperate by giving up an extra 2 first round draft picks for a young quarterback that didn’t even play in 2020, and maybe even worse, didn’t even play in the FBS. This is a massive head scratcher to me. It isn’t hard to see what Mike Shannahan and John Lynch feel about Jimmy G. Come to think of it, we also kind of saw their thoughts on him during last 2 minutes in the Super bowl vs the Chiefs in 2020. In my opinion, I think making this move when a team is ready to win now is Ludacris. Plus, the 49ers might have gotten Lance anyways by waiting for pick 12. Either way, I highly doubt that Jimmy Garoppolo, who is set to make over 20 Million this year doesn’t really appreciate what happened here. I would be shocked if he is playing for this team by the start of the season. The good thing for this team is that their adjusted Pythagorean winning percentage is at 8.7 compared to their adjusted 2020 wins of 6.38 That tells me they underachieved and could win a lot of games IF Jimmy G stays or Trey Lance proves me wrong. I have to assume Garoppolo stays for now but I won’t make a play.

My Number: 10.54

Action: Lean over

MLB Picks and Predictions – June 19, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 19, 2021

This will be a lightning quick article since I’m packing up to go to a remote fishing cabin soon (good luck to me, service will be SPARSE). We had another 2-1 day yesterday and we’re looking for more– how about those value plays Friday eh?!? Onto Saturday!

Giants win (-115), 1.5 units: We get a discounted price on a dominant Giants team, at home, under the regime or Alex Wood (3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 63 innings). As much as I respect Nola and the Phillies ability behind the plate, we have to take advantage of this opportunity. The Giants are too dialed in right now.

Red Sox win (-115), 1.5 units: Another game with a discounted price on a great team and we step up for the bargain! Two average pitchers go head to head today in Martin Perez and Brad Keller and although both are probably due for some positive regression, I overwhelmingly favor the Boston bats.

White Sox win (-105), 1 unit: Framber Valdez has been excellent but he’s a left-handed pitcher and the White Sox bats are salivating at the thought. Chicago also sends the equally (if not more impressive) Lance Lynn (1.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 71.2 innings) to the mound Saturday and I like his chances against an Astros unit who’s due for a let-down game. Give me the Sox!

Lean (Mets/Nats Game 2): I love to fade Jon Lester so, depending on who NYM names as their starter, look to bet against Washington in game 2 of their doubleheader today.

Bucks vs. Nets Game 7 Pick and Prediction – June 19, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 19, 2021

This back and forth series has come down to game seven and it should be quite the show. Kevin Durant faces off one last time against Giannis Antetokounmpo and I’m here for it. Of course I’ll be at a remote cabin in the woods later today, where there’s absolutely no service, so I’m sending out this article early to make sure it gets to you all. Here are my bets– happy weekend!!

Lean, Nets win (-120) and
Durant over 35.5 points (-125), 1.5 units and
Bucks/Nets under 215 (-110), 1.5 units (and watch for opportunities to LIVE BET the under)

As much as I want to be bold and pick a side here today, I don’t think it’s a smart move. No team has a real advantage here, despite the fact that each home team has won every contest. There is no greater motivation than a game seven and there shouldn’t be any lack of aggression or moxie on either side. Two teams built around their stars, albeit one with more stars than the other, in truth these are two franchises that are very evenly constructed. Kyrie’s presence and a healthy James Harden would give Brooklyn the edge at home but that’s not the reality today.

Much unlike the regular season, these two teams have produced a ton of low-scoring affairs. Watch, in this game where I’m being bullish on the under, they’ll defy the odds and the total will soar to the 240s. Eye roll. Still, I feel I have no choice but to take the under in this final showdown. There is no higher tension than a game seven and both defenses have figured out ways to limit the others’ stars. Brooklyn and Milwaukee proved that they actually have some defensive prowess and every single shot will be contested tonight. If one defense has a hiccup, they’ll correct that quickly. If there’s an early quarter where the total climbs because we see a 58-65 point quarter, look to live bet the under on a much higher total. I think that’s the best bet here, actually.

I won’t bet on Giannis’ point props or P/R/A prop since this is in Brooklyn and he’ll feel more pressure than Durant. We know how he fares at the charity stripe and that won’t prove any easier at the Barclays Center. And while Milwaukee has turned to other contributors like Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, it’s clear that Brooklyn’s roster would much rather force feed the ball to Kevin Durant as much as possible. Durant would have beaten his point total in game six, I guarantee it, if he wasn’t pulled in the final 6 minutes of regulation. Just like a star wide-receiver who gets targeted over 10 times a game in the NFL, it’s very likely that Durant will take over 25 shots and that means there’s a great chance he’ll demolish that point prop once again. I expect James Harden to have more of an impact too, but not enough to take away from Durant’s production.

For those bettors out there who feel confident about taking a side tonight, kudos to you. Initially I did too (I leaned the Bucks at first and now I lean the Nets– home court advantage is a thing), but it wouldn’t feel responsible to my readers to give that out. This is truly a very evenly-matched series and game seven should be incredible TV. Hopefully the fishing cabin has cable! Good luck, people!

MLB Picks and Predictions – June 18, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 18, 2021

This is one of those “I can barely breathe I’m so busy” kind of days so I’m going to fly through this article. I dedicated my time to research and left little time to write. Onto my picks– happy Friday everyone!

Orioles win (+155), 1.5 units: Value baby value! The Orioles are one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitchers this year and this game sets up well for Baltimore. After a long road stint where they’ve now dropped 8 straight games, they’ll get a chance to smack the very hittable Robbie Ray at Camden Yards on a blazing hot day. Ray allows a staggering 2.05 HR/9 innings and has a 4.32 FIP to boot. This is a great situation for Baltimore and the Blue Jays haven’t exactly been world-beaters. Give me some O’s!

Rockies -1.5 (+245), 1 unit: Why not? The Rockies, as usual, look way better at home and they’re on a rare 4 game winning streak heading into this contest. Corbin Burnes usually has solid command but lord knows he can be exposed, just like he was in his last start against Pittsburgh. The prospect looks even more grim against a Colorado team that’s very comfortable and confident behind their bats at Coors. The Brewers? Their bats have been really struggling, even in a perfect environment yesterday in Denver. I think the Rockies keep lighting it up and I’ll take a one unit risk for this price all day.

Dodgers -1.5 (-125), 1.25 units: Dodgers, Trevor Bauer (who’s due for a dominant game after 3 straight stinkers), and lowly competition against the crumbling 14-game losing streak Diamondbacks. I’ll take LAD by margin.

Nick Hub’s MLB Free Pick Video for Friday June 18th with PROMOS

By

Nick Hub

-

June 18, 2021

brought to you by SportsPickHub.com (home of the 1K Followers “Thank You” promos)

NBA Playoffs Picks and Predictions – June 18, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 18, 2021

Trae Young running down court passed 76ers players.

Well yesterday’s picks didn’t go the way I wanted and to say it has me fired up this Friday morning is a definitive understatement. The Jekyll and Hyde mentality of the Bucks and Nets, especially when they’re away from their home floor, is beyond annoying. Still, Giannis and Durant were a hair away from hitting the prop bets we posted. All we can do is shrug it off and that’s exactly what I’ll do as we approach Friday night. Here are my best bets:

76ers win 1st QTR (-160), 1.6 units and 76ers -3 (-115), 1.5 units and Lean, 76ers/Hawks over 221.5 (-110): The 76ers love to start fast and they’ve won the first quarter by margin in 4 out of 5 games in this series. While I want to take them at -2 in the first, I don’t think that line makes much sense since the full game line is set at -3. Out of respect for Atlanta at home, I’ll just go with Philly winning the first quarter straight up. If you’re unsure about which side to take or you’re leaning the Atlanta side, betting on them in the first quarter or first half at +2 is a good hedge.

I just can’t see Philly allowing the Hawks to have their way in 3 straight games. After Atlanta shocked the 76ers to open the series, Joel Embiid and company answered back and they did so in dominant fashion, winning by 16 point margins in games two and three. On paper, Philadelphia is a considerably better team than their foe. They’ve proven as much all season, even without some of their stars. That being said, Trae Young and the Hawks play with a moxie and aggression that’s hard to quantify. Would I be shocked if they won this game? Absolutely not. But smart money is with Philly if you ask me (and you are, right? Because you’re reading this). Expect the fledgling Sixers to come out hot at the beginning of this game and to play with urgency like we haven’t seen.

I lean the score going over because the Sixers are playing at a blitzing tempo (2nd in pace overall this postseason) and I expect that to only increase tonight. Philly has thrived when they get out to an early lead and they’re able to control the game. You’d think they could do that in every contest against Atlanta but Trae is fearless and his supporting cast of sharpshooters can hang with any team’s offensive production. Game five wasn’t a fluke– the Hawks are built to stay in games and surge and it just happened to be at the wrong time 2 nights ago (i.e. only the most crucial moments in the second half). Astoundingly, only Joel Embiid and Seth Curry scored a field goal in the second half Wednesday. That sort of handicapped basketball cannot happen tonight if Philly wants to keep this series alive.

The amount of motivation the 76ers should have tonight is immeasurable. It’s a win or go home situation after they blew a big lead in game five and after a myriad of Sixers players couldn’t find any sort of rhythm for a full 2 quarters. As a sports bettor we should not only hope for positive regression and the best version of Philly tonight, we should expect it.

Jazz win (-125), 1.5 units and D. Mitchell over 32.5 pts (-120), 1.5 units ONLY IF MITCHELL PLAYS: I just got news that Donovan Mitchell is “questionable” for tonight. I hope that’s just some odd cautionary move but if it’s not, these two bets will not be executed by yours truly.

A big part of me wants to go with the dogs tonight– I mean they’re at home and what a value, right?– but like the Sixers the Jazz are fooling all of us into thinking they’re not as good as advertised. It’s just not true. Sure the Jazz have lost 3 straight and it feels like Tyronn Lue and his team have figured something out. I don’t think they have; I think Utah simply dropped the ball. When Donovan Mitchell has a big night, his supporting cast stumbles. When Mitchell has an off night, his supporting cast does better. It’s not enough.

The Jazz aren’t as deep a team as the Clippers and it showed it game five. Still, the books had the Jazz as 8 point favorites before tipoff. Think about that. We knew better, but Bookie-Joe and his associates thought that without Kawhi, the Jazz are 8 points better than the Clippers at home. Now, fresh off a loss and back on the road, the Jazz are only a 1.5 point favorite? Naa, something’s off here and I don’t agree with it. The books are trying to lure us in and unlike “Joey-public,” we’re not taking the bait.

The Jazz had the best record in the NBA all season. While their bench may be slightly more shallow than the Clippers, Utah has role-players at every position on their roster that can impact a game in a huge way. This isn’t one of those games where they can methodically scheme and stay calm and still anticipate a win. On the contrary, I expect to see a different version of the Jazz tonight. While they’ll be led by Donovan Mitchell’s offense, who we all know steps up in big game situations, we should see even more positive regression from the Jazz on defense. Utah ranks 11th overall among 16 playoff teams in defensive efficiency. That means teams like the Bucks, Hawks, Nets, and even the Mavericks have performed better. While LAC has been highly efficient on offense and they deserve credit, the Jazz aren’t maximizing their skill defenders and clamping down like we’ve seen them do all year. Don’t be surprised if Paul George and his other teammates who thrived in game five have a different experience tonight. Without Kawhi and with all the pressure on Paul George now that they won without their star, I’ll side with the Jazz defense.

Utah won’t go down easy and I trust Mitchell and Gobert and their many veterans to step up in a big way Friday. Besides, the NBA wants a game seven; we all know that.