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Nets vs. Bucks Pick and Prediction – June 17, 2021

Kevin Durant, mad in game five.

 

After another 2-0 day (that’s 5-1 this week), we turn to tonight as the Nets and Bucks clash yet again after Kevin Durant’s sensational 49 points and triple double in game five. Who do I like? What bets do I like? Find out below:

Nets/Bucks over 220 (-110), 2 units and
Durant over 35.5 points (-120), 1.5 units and
Giannis over 51.5 P/R/A (-108), 1.5 units:

Kevin Durant didn’t only put on a sensational performance Tuesday night, he put on one of the greatest performances in NBA playoffs history. Durant shot 16 of 23 from the field for 49 points along with 17 rebounds, 10 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. Those are absolutely insane numbers. For a span of time in the second half, the ball went to him on every single possession as his teammates looked for him to score. And he did, time and time again, as his 69.5% shooting percentage indicates. It was a brilliant, high-pressure spot and he showed why he’s one of the best ever. It was Kobe like, Curry like, even MJ like. And just ask anyone who knows me– I don’t say that often.

Now, it’s Giannis’ turn. The Greek-Freak didn’t have a horrible time at the free throw line in game five (4/7) but it won’t be the charity stripe that’ll decide tonight’s game. Giannis has to put his team on his shoulders and carry the load as game six heads to Fiserv Forum in front of his home fans. The former MVP knows he’ll have a target on his back because it’s the only way the Bucks will win and I like his P/R/A prop to soar over even more because I don’t think this will be a blowout. While the other 2 games in Milwaukee were defensive showcases, the Bucks were overwhelmed by Brooklyn’s attack 2 nights ago and I don’t think they’ll want to overly depend on their defense to win this contest. Giannis will have to force his way into the front court and feed the ball to the open man every chance he gets. Expect a huge game six for the Bucks’ star.

The Nets found a way to get Durant the ball in game five. That high pick and roll worked and it worked often. I said it in the last article and I’ll say it in this one– don’t underplay Steve Nash’s ability to scheme with his veteran talent. With Durant solely leading the way and his supporting cast doing a great job at finding ways to get open (Griffin, Green, and Shamet had great games Tuesday– Harris needs to do more), I have little doubt that Brooklyn can keep pace when Milwaukee turns on the jets at home. I also have little doubt that Durant can have a repeat performance. Expect the same angry and motivated Durant to put on a show as him and Antetokounmpo go bell to bell for 48 minutes.

This one will be a battle but as both teams find a rhythm, I’ll choose to skip picking a side and instead we’ll count on Giannis, Durant and the offensive genius of these two elite franchises. Get the popcorn ready!

Nick Hub’s MLB Free Pick Video for Thursday June 17th

 

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MLB Picks and Predictions – June 17, 2021

Woodruff at the mound for the Brewers.

 

It’s been wayyyy too long since I wrote an MLB article but we’re back in the full swing of things now! Onto more picks and more wins!

Giants -1.5 (even), 1 unit: I’ll bet on the Giants at home against the sinking Diamondbacks 10 days out of 10 if I had to and this spot is no different. In an attempt to hang with San Francisco’s superb pitchers and hitters who have embarrassed Arizona’s rotation, the D-Backs send Zac Gallen (3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 26.2 innings) back to the mound Thursday, who they’ve missed since his setback from an elbow injury. While Gallen has been formidable this year and his numbers speak to his steady command (3.05 FIP, 0.34 HR/9 innings, 3.8% HR/FB ratio), he’ll have to faceoff against Kevin Gausman (1.43 ERA, 0.78 WHIP over 81.2 innings). Gausman has had an elite year in 2021, “Only Jacob deGrom has a better ERA among qualifiers, and that pitcher is having what could be a year for the ages. Gausman’s sixth in WAR, fifth in FIP, seventh in swinging strikes, and 10th in contact rate. And while he’s not likely to finish the year with an ERA anywhere near his current microscopic 1.27, his 2.20 FIP is an easy career-best so far and not explained entirely by the drop in league-wide offense.” One must proceed with caution when a pitcher returns from injury in baseball and although Gallen can be electric, I don’t trust him going up against Gausman and this confident Giants unit. I especially don’t trust him in his first game back. I’m on the NL’s best to win by margin.

Brewers win (-153), 1.5 units: The Rockies are a different team at home, as we all know, but I’m ready to fade German Marquez (4.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 76.1 innings) and count on more negative regression for him tonight. Marquez was on a nice little run before he got blasted by the Reds in his last start, holding batters to 4 hits or less and 1 run or less in four straight contests, averaging 6.5 innings during that stretch. After getting exposed by Cincinnati, Marquez heads back to Coors to take on a Brewers’ unit that’s dying to see some positive regression on offense. That’s not a good combination. It’ll be 100 degrees during the day in Denver and likely still in the 90s at first pitch. A suffocating heat at Coors can only mean one thing– runs are a-comin’! Unfortunately for Colorado, it gets worse. Milwaukee sends out the trustworthy Brandon Woodruff (1.52 ERA, 0.72 WHIP over 83 innings) Thursday, who has showed 0 signs that his command will dip off any time soon. With a 2.49 FIP and allowing only 0.65 HR/9 innings, Woodruff is the perfect pitcher to limit the Rockies’ bats and open the door for a big scoring day for his team. I’ll gladly take the Brewers at a line that’s very giving.

Angels -1.5 (even), 1 unit: The Detroit Tigers call up minor-league elite and long-awaited prospect Matt Manning to the pros today as they gear up to oppose Shohei Ohtani (2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 47.1 innings) and the stumbling Angels. LAA just lost 3 straight to their AL West leading rival Oakland A’s but now they get to return home under the talented Ohtani and they hope for positive regression on both sides of the dirt. Manning didn’t need his 6’6″ frame to stand out when he was drafted; his early numbers in 2016 and 2017 had the baseball world immediately paying attention. His numbers remained consistent until COVID took the world by storm and now, in 2021, his outlook is looking a little more dim. Manning has struggled over 32.1 innings in triple-A this year, presenting a dismal 8.07 ERA, 6.54 FIP, a BABIP of .333 and allowing 3.06 HR/9 innings (hint: that’s not good). For the most part Ohtani has been solid on the mound, creating low-scoring affairs and allowing his offense to take over games. While the Tigers have surprised all of us this year with some great series wins, this is a significantly better spot for LAA and I smell a big win for a home team who needs it. Give me the Angels behind Ohtani in a blowout.

NBA Playoff Picks and Predictions – June 16, 2021

Trae Young playing for the Hawks.

 

Well these NBA playoffs are certainly taking a turn. As if the Suns haven’t been through enough and proven their merit enough to earn better fortune, we’ve learned that Chris Paul is under COVID-protocol and his status in the coming days/weeks is uncertain. But wait, that’s not all! Top 3 NBA player Kawhi Leonard might have torn his ACL and his timetable to return is also uncertain. In the words of this generation: OMG. With that crap fresh in our minds and a full 2-game slate in front us tonight, here are my picks:

Trae Young over 27.5 points (-120), 2 units: Unfortunately this is the only bet I like in this game but I like it a lot. Remember when the Hawks beat the Sixers 2 nights ago? #MeToo, but I also remember many of us forgetting just how good the Hawks can play when the pressure is on. There’s no pressure like a game 5 when the series is tied 2-2 and if there’s anyone we can count on to step up, it’s Trae Young. Once the young sharpshooter woke up in the 2nd quarter of game four, he was the biggest difference on offense for Atlanta, scoring 25 points in just 2 1/2 quarters of play. Atlanta will need Trae to put on a big performance tonight as the Hawks travel to Wells Fargo for this pivotal inflexion point in the series. I know his shoulder is bothering him but that doesn’t seem to matter when the going gets tough. In five away games this postseason, Trae is averaging 35 ppg. Count on the young star to that supervillain attitude and a big scoring night into Philly.

Clippers +8 (-105), 2 units: What happens when a star player goes down to an injury and a great team has to face the postseason without him? They crumble, right? Not so fast, my friends. A team as stacked and loaded as the Clippers often creates even MORE motivation and I think that could work wonders for LAC tonight. Now that Kawhi is out the talent, on paper, is a lot more even between Utah and Los Angeles. The Jazz are one of the best home teams in the NBA but that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable. Look through the team stats in games three and four and you’ll be hard pressed to find ANY statistic where the Clippers didn’t out-perform or simply dominate the Jazz. Kawhi is the anchor but this is a complete team with even more reason to get fired up Wednesday.

In no way should the Clippers be valued as an 8 point underdog tonight. We play numbers because that’s what great sports bettors do and regardless of the outcome, this is the right side according to Gambling 101 and what we know about the Clippers’ as a unit. Trust bets like this and over time, the stacks of cabbage will come.

NHL Preview & Picks – June 16, 2021

Vegas wound up taking Game 1 by a score of 4-1 which isn’t a shock for anyone. The Canadians are out matched in this Series on every level. The Golden Knights are again going off as heavy favorites in Game 2.

Montreal Canadians (+225) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-265)

The Habs have relied on Carey Price and their defensive ability to shut down teams throughout these playoffs but, have met their match with Vegas. In their first series with Toronto, they were able to dominate them physically. In their second series, the Jets top scorer got suspended debilitating Winnipeg’s offense. In this series, Vegas can match their physicality and generate offense from multiple lines.

Carey Price did not play well in Game 1 and finished the game with a -1.44 GSAx. This performance was highly unlikely and hopefully an outlier, or else this series could be over in 4. Montreal actually had a higher expected goals (all situations) in the series opener despite losing. Another positive for the Habs is they were able to shut down Vegas Powerplay which went 0-4 on the night.

Writing this, I’m really trying to find ways to spin this and argue for Montreal however, the fact is Vegas is the better team. The Knights are starting Fleury again tonight, who has been incredible. He held Montreal to just one goal in Game 1 and finished with a +3.4 GSAx. Trying to find value in this game is tough, the Knights at -265 is a price that I’m just not willing to lay despite this mismatch. I think tonight’s game will be a little bit closer as Price should have a rebound game but Montreal doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match. Instead, I’m looking to back Vegas in Regulation at -160. Yes, it’s still a steep price but Vegas should win this game, and do so in 60 minutes.

Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -0.5 in Regulation, -160 (Risk 1.60)

Nick Hub’s MLB Free Pick Video for Wednesday June 16th with a HUGE PROMO!!

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The U.S. Open Championship Preview & Picks

What a tournament this should be…  We have the 121st U.S. Open returning to the South Course at Torrey Pines. This course was last used for the U.S. Open back in 2008, when Tiger took down Rocco Mediate in a playoff.

This course is extremely long, which pretty much eliminates half the field right there. Driving Distance is a key stat that must be taken into account for this tournament. Only four winners in the last 17 years have ranked higher in Driving Accuracy than Driving Distance. Yes, the U.S. Open is known for having tight fairways and punishing rough. However, the added distance will allow these players to hit shorter irons into these greens which brings up another key stat, SG: Approach. These greens were overhauled with Bentgrass back in 2001 when the course went through an overhaul getting prepared for the 2008 US Open. The native Poa Annua however, has taken over these greens and they’re now listed as “Bentgrass with Poa Annua.” The greens at Torrey Pines South are slightly smaller than the tour average, but most have been moved closer to hazards and recontoured during that renovation. To win this tournament without having a long ball off the tee, you need to have a great long iron game or be able to scramble and putt lights out which only a handful of players do. When looking at this field, the list of competitors isn’t a long one. This isn’t a long shot tournament; the big names usually win this due to the USGA’s ability to configure a course that exposes inexperience by challenging all aspects of players’ games. Jon Rahm enters this tournament as the betting favorite after being pulled off the 18th hole at the Memorial with a 6 stroke lead headed into Sunday. He’s now tested negative for Covid-19 and is deservedly so the betting favorite (10-1) as this course suits his playing style well.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: June 17, 2021- June 20, 2021
  • Location: La Jolla, California, USA
  • Course: Torrey Pines South
  • Par: 71
  • Length: 7,652 yards
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Players / Top 60 & Ties Make the Cut
  • Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua
  • Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around The Green
  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Par 4’s: 450-500 yards
  • Driving Distance
  • Putting Birdie or Better %
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast Poa)

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Xander Schauffele (+2,000)
    • Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
      • 22nd in SG: Approach
      • 18th in SG: Tee to Green
      • T26 in Driving Distance
      • 3rd in Putting: Birdie or Better %
  • Rory McIlroy (+2,000)
    • Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
      • 2nd in Driving Distance
      • T9 in Driving Distance
      • 16th in SG: Tee to Green
      • 15th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
  • Collin Morikawa (+2,500)
    • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
      • 1st in SG: Approach
      • 1st in SG: Tee to Green
      • 1st in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
      • 4th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
  • Justin Thomas (+2,500)
    • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
      • 2nd in SG: Approach
      • 2nd in Putting: Birdie or Better %
      • 5th in SG: Tee to Green
      • 17th in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
  • Jason Kokrak (+6,600)
    • Risk: 0.12 to win 7.92 Units
      • 22nd in SG: Off the Tee
      • 19th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
      • 22nd in Driving Distance
      • T24th in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
  • Viktor Hovland (+2,800)
    • Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
      • 5th in SG: Off the Tee
      • 8th in SG: Tee to Green
      • 8th in Putting: Birdie or Better %
      • 21st in SG: Approach

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.85 Units

 

Picks (First Round Leader):

  • Charley Hoffman (+8,000)
    • Risk: 0.05 to win 4.00 Units
      • 5th in SG: Approach
      • 17th in SG: Tee to Green
      • 21st in Par 4’s: 450-500 Yards
      • T26 in Driving Distance
  • Matthew Wolff (+10,000)
    • Risk 0.05 to win 5.0 Units
      • 7th in Driving Distance
      • 19th in SG: Around the Green
      • Wolff finished 2nd in the 2020 US Open behind Bryson, he’s not playing great golf as of late but at +10,000 FRL he’s worth a sprinkle

Total Risk on the First Round Leaders: 0.10 Units

 

Picks (Full Tournament Matchups):

  • Erik van Rooyen (-125) over Garrick Higgo
    • Risk: 1.00 to win 0.80 Units
  • Louis Oosthuizen (-115) over Paul Casey
    • Risk: 1.00 to win 0.87 Units

Total Risk on the Matchups: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the U.S. Open: 3.95 Units

Year to Date: +4.88 Units

Alan Cashman’s Tuesday MLB

We hit both Subscriber Picks last night. 2 MLB Subscriber Plays posted for Tuesday

My Computer Prediction Models are also hitting very well for MLB. The Consensus Model is 15-3 the last 3 days for Members.

MLB
Baltimore at Cleveland 7:10 pm
Harvey vs Quantrill

Pick: CLE Over 4.5 (-127) LEAN

I don’t do a lot of Over 4.5 run totals but a lot of good stuff here

Harvey 11.79 ERA last 7 starts
Harvey 12.86 ERA last 2 starts vs CLE
Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of last 7 starts by Harvey
Opponents batting .314 vs Harvey this season
Harvey 7.90 ERA in road starts this season
Harvey 7.15 ERA in night starts this season
BAL bullpen 5.04 ERA last 10 games
CLE batting .285 last 10 games vs RHP

MLB
Minnesota at Seattle 10:10 pm
Happ vs Flexen

Pick: SEA over 3.5 (-124) Small

Happ 8.37 ERA last 7 starts
Happ 7.46 ERA in road starts this season
Happ 7.58 ERA in night starts this season
Happ allowed 5 HR In last 2 starts
MIN bullpen 6.18 ERA last 10 games
SEA scored 4 or more runs in 8 of last 9 meetings
Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in Happ’s last 7 starts

NHL Preview & Picks – June 15, 2021

What a way to sneak out a win last night, four minutes of empty net for the Habs and we were still able to hit on the under. Tonight, we have a Game 2 matchup where the Lightning look to even up the Series at home.

New York Islanders (+170) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-200)

The Lightning dropped Game 1 where the Islanders played textbook hockey. They were able to shut down Tampa’s deadly offense and hold them off the scoresheet until the last minute. Semyon Varlamov was outstanding making some huge saves and finished the game with a +3.265 GSAx. He was the main reason that the Isle’s were able to shock the Bolts at home. The Lightning finished with a better xG (3.27-2.7) in Game 1 despite what the scoreboard indicated. Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn’t to blame for the Lightnings loss, as he had a +2.7 GSAx. These will most likely be the same two goalies starting tonight, but only Varlamov has been confirmed.

As we look to tonight’s game, the odds are exactly the same as Game 1. The Lightning are the heavy favorites at -200 while the Islanders are set to go off a +170 underdog. The only difference in terms of betting lines is the total which has dropped from 5.5 Game 1, to 5.0 in Game 2.

The Islanders offense is running through Matt Barzal who opened the scoring for New York in Game 1 and has four goals in the past five games. If you were to look on Twitter or Instagram tonight, I would guarantee that over 95% of them are giving out the Lightning ml as their best bet of the day. However, the Islanders aren’t the same team that lost to the Lightning last year. They made some great deadline moves picking up some veteran presence in Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac. For tonight’s play, I’m looking at some player prop’s.

 

Pick #1: Anthony Beauviller over 0.5 points (+105) Risk 0.50 Units

  • Bauvillier’s line currently has a +5.4 xGF% which is one of the best in the playoffs. Personally he has a xGoals of +4.7, and enters the game with 4 goals and 7 assists these playoffs. Tampa is a team that gives up a lot of chances, and I can see him adding to his impressive point tally these playoffs. At plus money, I think this line offers some value and deserves a small play.

Pick #2: Matt Barzal over 0.5 points (-120), Risk 0.60 Units

  • Barzal is one of the hottest players in the NHL, and has shown he can dominate this Tampa defense. He was a +2 in Game 1, generating both scoring chances. Barzal also has one of the best xGoals, with a +4.0. He should continue his hot streak tonight as I expect Tampa for try and push the pace tonight, leaving themselves exposed on defense.

Nick Hub’s MLB Free Pick Video for Tuesday June 15th