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The AFC South – The AFC South is the most agonizing division in the NFL. In the beginning of the season, the Titans blew a massive 17 point lead to the Bears, all during the second half. They also choked the next few games away as well. The Jaguars were grossly incompetent as well in choking away their first two games, while the Colts continue to have quarterback issues. The Texans once again had it pretty easy last season, and it didn’t take much for them to slither into the playoffs. This season, this division plays the AFC West and the NFC West, which is tricky as due to more travel. Can the Texans keep their number one spot? Are the Jaguars ever going to play up to their talent? Can the Colts rush their way into the playoffs? How bad will the Titans be this season? Let’s dive in.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 wins – 1 star
Division Winner: Texans +115 – Jags +260 – Colts +380 – Titans +650
1. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore, vs Buffalo
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: T Laremy Tunsil, G Kenyon Green, WR Stephon Diggs (didn’t play much), S Eric Murray, CB Jeff Okudah, QB Case Keenum, WR Robert Woods, G Shaq Mason.
Key additions: WR Christian Kirk, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, T Cam Robinson, CB Tremon Smith, LB Nick Niemann, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Justin Watson, G Laken Tomlinson, CB Ronald Darby.
Key Draft Picks: WR Jayden Higgins, T Aireontae Ersery.
Summary: The Texans were once again very busy in free agency. Some analysts were shocked that they decided to trade tackle Laremy Tunsil, and Kenyon Green. This team was poor at protecting CJ Stroud, so changes had to be made. Dumping wide receiver Stephon Diggs is already proving to be the right move here in the offseason. Most importantly, this team didn’t have to be great to make the playoffs ranking only 21st in offensive EPA. Their defense certainly helped carry the way ranking 6th in overall EPA, and I do not see them taking a step back on that side of the ball, especially with a defensive minded coach like Demeco Ryans. I like how this team added slot receiver Christian Kirk. Wide receivers Nico Collins & Tank Dell should finally be back healthy, and I expect some big improvement this year in the offense. The Texan’s schedule doesn’t set up too bad for a first place team. There really isn’t all that much more to say about Houston. They made all the right moves. I think that this team could be the one of the best teams that nobody is talking about in the AFC.
My Number: 10.25
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.25
2. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.42
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Carolina, @ Cincinnati, vs NY Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: HC Doug Peterson, TE Evan Engram, S Andre Cisco, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, CB Ronald Darby, G Brandon Sherff.
Key additions: HC Liam Coen, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Jourdain Lewis, C Robert Hainsey, S Eric Murray, WR Dyami Brown, T Chuma Edoga.
Key Draft Picks: WR/CB Travis Hunter, CB Caleb Ransaw, T Wyatt Milum, LB Jack Kiser.
Summary: Loving you,… is easy cause your beautiful… Isn’t that how the song goes? Well, this is how the Jags felt when they traded up from number five to get Travis Hunter at number two. Like we know in all relationships, wait until you get to know them. The good news is that I really believe that Travis Hunter is a great guy. Now, that doesn’t mean that he is worth all that this team has given up for him. I mean, what are you doing Jags? Last year’s top wide receiver pick in Brian Thomas Jr. had one of the most phenomenal rookie years that anyone could ask for. So now you get another star that will take catches and targets away from Thomas? Especially when you need so much. The bigger problem with Travis Hunter is that if he is a true unicorn, and can play both ways, doesn’t his chance of getting injured go up as well? Last season at Colorado, Hunter had to take some plays off while on the field due to fatigue. I did see him get burned a few times on defense. Last season, the Jaguars ranked 31st in defensive EPA, and 19th respectively on offense. They needed to get more dudes in the middle to help stop the run. So the biggest change to this team was convincing new head coach Liam Coen to leave Tampa Bay and come across the limestone State to Jacksonville. I honestly do like this hire, and Coen was a huge part of Tampa Bay’s resurgence. Coaching matters greatly in this league, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never had a good one. I think that this might be the key to the whole season. With a little luck, the Jaguars can possibly make a run at this division. Fair warning, I lose money betting on this Jaguars team every year. I am not going to stop now as maybe it all works out on an easy schedule.
My Number: 8.21
Action – Jaguars over 7.5 wins -115 – 1 star – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +172 – .5 stars
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – -1
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.18
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Miami, @ Pittsburgh, vs Atlanta (neutral in Berlin),
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Will Fries, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, C Ryan Kelly, K Matt Gay, QB Joe Flacco, LB EJ Speed, TE Kylen Granson, DT Raekwon Davis, S Julian Blackmon.
Key additions: S Camryn Bynum, CB Charvarius Ward, QB Daniel Jones, WR Ashton Dulin, K Spencer Shrader.
Whom they drafted: TE Tyler Warren, Edge JT Tuimoloau, CB Justin Walley, QB Riley Leonard, DL Tim Smith.
Summary: What’s the old saying? If you have two quarterbacks, then you have no quarterbacks. As I stated last year, Anthony Richardson is a bust. So what do they do? They pick up another bust from the Giants in Daniel Jones. I honestly do not know what to do with this team. They seem to be wasting the talent of running back half back Jonathan Taylor, and guard Quenton Nelson. Coach Shane Steichen is on the hot seat this year, and he doesn’t have a lot of guys to dig him out. The Offensive line is mid at best, the defense should be half way decent with all of the prospects that they have picked up. The draft pick of Tyler Warren was great, but this team didn’t seem to care to use their tight ends well in the past. I do not see much of a pass rush here to get to the better quarterbacks in this league. The best hope for the Colts is for late round draft pick Riley Leonard to all of a sudden develop an NFL arm. He can at least run the ball pretty well, and if Steichen can keep this offense somewhat simple, maybe, just maybe, they can win eight games again. In saying that, purgatory is what I continue to expect to see in the future for the Colts.
My Number: 8.45
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -3
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -150
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.66
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Cleveland, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Harold Landry, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Quandre Diggs, K Nick Folk.
Key additions: T Dan Moore, LB Cody Barton, G Kevin Zeitler, DE Dra’Mont Jones, S Xavier Woods, DT Sebastian Joseph, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, and a ton of cheap dudes.
Key Draft Picks: QB Cam Ward, Edge Oluwafemi Oladejo, S Kevin Winston, WR Chimere Dike.
Summary: I wish I could say that it pays so suck all of the time. The Titans think that they have drafted their franchise quarterback, but I am just not so sure about that. These days in college, sometimes its best to be a big fish in a small pond around a team that paid for their players in a bad football conference. Don’t get me wrong. Cam Ward “might” turn out, but he would not even have been drafted in my top four back in twenty four. In saying all this, it’s hard for the Titans to get any worse from a results perspective as they did last year. Choking away games was their montage and when the season got out of hand, this team just could not keep it close. The good news for this team is that they signed a ton of talent, and decided to spend a bunch of money this year to try and protect their quarterback. Brian Callahan will have to scheme to win a lot of tough games. Now they just need someone to throw the ball to. Who will that be? Um… Yeah. I expect this defense to be a little above average, but we may be looking at the worst offense in football.
My Number: 5.83
Action: Lean over
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -6.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
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We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Joshua Nunn @StepOnADuck1 is back to break down more pigskin! First, Kiev talks about Sports Betting in Illinois. What now? Next, he gets into the US Open with a few thoughts. Then, we break down the AFC East & AFC West to finish out our NFL previews. Which teams will come out on top!? After that, Josh comes on and the guys get right into the group of five conferences. We start with the AAC and go all the way to the Sun Belt. Plenty of Free Plays and big futures! Kiev also throws out a UFC free play at the end of the show. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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With $1,000,000 in bonus bets on the line, DraftKings is rolling out its “King of the Course” promo for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Here’s how it works — and more importantly, how you should approach it from a betting strategy standpoint.
Place an outright bet on any golfer to win the U.S. Open. If your selection records the most birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4 combined, you’ll earn a share of a $1,000,000 bonus bet pool — regardless of whether they win.
That’s right: your pick doesn’t need to win the tournament; they just need to rack up the most red numbers on the weekend.
This sounds obvious, but it’s the foundation of the entire promo. If your golfer misses the cut, they won’t be playing Rounds 3 and 4, and your entry is dead.
U.S. Open Cut Rules: Top 60 and ties after 36 holes. That’s a tighter cut line than most PGA Tour events (usually Top 65 and ties), making it even more crucial to target consistent players.
Oakmont is one of the toughest tests in golf, but even the most difficult venues have scoring windows. Let’s break down where birdies are most likely to come from this weekend.
To maximize your odds of winning, the key is finding players who are aggressive, can survive Oakmont’s difficulty, and go low when the putter heats up.
Focus on players who can take full advantage of the few scoring holes at Oakmont.
Ideal profile: Consistent ball-strikers with elite wedges and potential for hot putting rounds.
Find players who can steal birdies where most of the field is making pars or worse.
Ideal profile: High-ceiling players with volatility, distance, and the ability to post a 65 out of nowhere.
If you have access to data on streaky putting performances, use it. You only need one or two hot putting rounds — especially on Saturday or Sunday — to win this contest.
Monitor weekend tee times and forecasts. Morning waves with softer greens or less wind could create ideal birdie chances.
At the top of the odds board, you’ll find the usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau. They’ll be popular picks in this contest, and rightfully so. These are elite players with a strong chance of posting the most birdies or better over the weekend.
But here’s the catch — the more people who bet on the same player, the smaller the share of that $1,000,000 prize pool you’ll end up with. That’s why we’re taking a different approach.
If your goal is simply to maximize your chances of winning something, then Scheffler or Rory might make sense. But if you’re looking to extract real value, the play is to dig a little deeper down the board.
Let’s reframe how we think about this contest: your $5 outright bet isn’t just a wager for a player to win the US Open — it’s a ticket into a side competition. And in that competition, the only thing that matters is birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4.
So when analyzing the board, I’m not only asking, “Can this guy win the US Open?” I’m more interested in “Can he make enough birdies on the weekend to top the leaderboard in this contest?”
A player might blow up with a triple bogey and fall out of contention for the tournament, but that doesn’t matter here. We don’t care about bogeys. We care about raw scoring upside — birdie-making potential when it counts most.
The key is identifying players with:
That’s where the edge lies. We’re not trying to be right about who wins the US Open — we’re trying to be right about who racks up birdies on Saturday and Sunday when most of the field has gone home.
Sam Burns enters the U.S. Open off a frustrating playoff loss to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, where his putter proved both a weapon and a weakness. After a stellar final round performance, Burns missed a short putt to win on the first playoff hole, then three-putted on the fourth, ultimately costing him the tournament.
Despite the disappointment, Burns has been playing consistently well. He’s finished T20 or better in five of his last six starts and is showing signs of a positive trend with his iron play. After going ten straight events without gaining strokes on approach, Burns has now done so in three consecutive starts—an encouraging sign as we head into a demanding week at Oakmont.
The strength of Burns’ game remains his putting, and when he finds a groove with the flat stick, he can rack up birdies in a hurry. He also has the distance off the tee to give himself manageable approaches on the longer holes. At the PGA Championship, Burns finished just four birdies off the top mark despite losing strokes on approach. If his recent improvements with the irons continue, he’s a legitimate contender in this DraftKings contest.
On top of that, Burns ranks 10th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season—a valuable stat considering this competition hinges on performance over the weekend.
Sepp Straka hasn’t yet found his form in the majors this year, but outside of those high-profile starts, he’s quietly put together a stellar 2025 season. With two wins under his belt — at The American Express and the Truist Championship (hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club) — Straka has shown he can contend and close.
He enters this week off a strong third-place finish at the Memorial, giving him a boost of momentum as he heads into Oakmont. Straka’s strength lies in his elite iron play. He may not overpower courses with distance, but he’s one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR — a key trait for positioning on Oakmont’s narrow and demanding fairways.
While his putter was inconsistent earlier in the year, he spiked in both of his wins, gaining +1.93 strokes putting at The American Express and +2.33 at the Truist. More importantly, he’s gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive events, a trend he hadn’t sustained since 2023. If the putter continues to cooperate, he’ll have plenty of birdie looks heading into the weekend.
What really stands out for this DraftKings promo is his weekend scoring ability. Straka ranks 5th in Round 3 scoring average and 18th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season — exactly what we’re targeting for this contest. If he makes the cut, his birdie-making potential on Saturday and Sunday could easily put him in contention for the top prize.
Harris English has quietly been one of the most consistent birdie-makers in major championships this season. At the Masters, he recorded 18 birdies, tying for 4th in the field. He matched that total at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where his 18 birdies were tied for 2nd. That kind of scoring upside is exactly what you’re looking for in a contest focused on weekend birdie totals.
He arrives at Oakmont in solid form, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including a win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines — a long, demanding setup that shares some characteristics with Oakmont in terms of difficulty and shot-making requirements.
English’s game has been steady this season, with most of the week-to-week volatility coming on the greens. That said, when the putter clicks, he tends to contend. In the last five events where he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T18. That kind of spike potential makes him a strong candidate for this unique DraftKings contest. He may not need to contend for the trophy — just catch fire with the putter over the weekend.
Shines on difficult golf courses tee to green. Top 20 in BoB% on difficult courses last 36 rounds.
Can get hot with the putter at any moment and drop them in from anywhere. Driver has been fantastic as of late.
Was born for the US Open. This isn’t a market that requires him to win the golf tournament and has a ton of history of weekend surges at major championships.
This DraftKings promo is a fun and strategic twist on outright betting. It rewards bold picks and sharp weekend analysis. Focus on players with scoring upside, weekend reliability, and the firepower to light up Oakmont’s few scoring windows. If they get hot at the right time, you could take home a share of the million.
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The AFC North in 2024 was not the best division in football, it wasn’t the worst either. I would say that it was the weirdest. The Browns were supposed to be a playoff team, yet they instead threw us a curve and competed quite well for the worst team in NFL football. The Ravens lost some games that they shouldn’t have against the Chiefs and then the Raiders, then they rip off five wins in a row against teams like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay, just to lose to the Browns on Week eight. The Steelers had the hardest projected schedule that turned out to be not so bad at all, and the Bengals had chose to not care so much about defense. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC North, which I would call medium hard. I feel that there is a big step up from a 3rd place schedule to a 4th place schedule. Let’s see how this pans out on paper.
Best Bets: Steelers under 8.5 wins Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD)
Divisional Odds: Ravens -145 – Bengals +230 – Steelers +550 – Browns +3000
1. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -115
2024 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 12.18
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs @Buffalo, vs Houston, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: K Justin Tucker, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Brandon Stephens, LB Malik Harrison, T Josh Jones, CB Tre’Davious White, S Marcus Williams
Key additions: QB Cooper Rush, WR DeAndre Hopkins, CB Chidobe Awuzie and some special teams guys
Key Draft Picks: S Malaki Starks, Edge Mike Green, T Emery Jones Jr. and some dudes.
Summary: Rinse repeat. The Ravens were once again the best team in football, but alas, once again blew it in the Playoffs. This is why home field advantage is such an attractive deal. Well, that and a few other things that you need to go your way. Last year’s addition of Derek Henry looked pretty genius as he seems to have a lot left in his gas tank. This team is so perfect, yet so flawed when Lamar gets deep into the playoffs. I am not going to sugar coat this. HE HAS TO PLAY BETTER! No turnovers, no sacks and just play the Ravens ballgame. Once again this Baltimore team looks destined for regular season success. I like their draft picks in Edge Mike Green and Safety Malaki Starks. My only pre-season issues is that they shed a few cornerbacks that will hurt them against some of the better offenses in this league. Will it matter as this team tends to get to the quarterback so quickly that the secondary doesn’t need to be all-stars? Probably not, but my biggest problem with taking futures on the Ravens is not being clutch in the playoffs, and Lamar has certainly taking some risks running the football. All in all, I expect the Ravens to once again win this division just to give it all back in the playoffs.
My Number: 12.59
Action – Lean over 11.5
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2024 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.42
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Jacksonville, @ Denver, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Alex Cappa, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, RT Trent Brown, CB Mike Hilston, S Von Bell
Key additions: DT TeDarrell Slaton, ILB Oren Burks, RB Samaje Perine, G/C Lucas Patrick
Key Draft Picks: Edge Shemar Stewart, LB Demetrius Knight Jr, G Dylan Fairchild, LB Barret Carter
Summary: The Cincinnati Bengals are really the complete opposite of the Green Bay Packers. They are a team with a lot of talent with terrible coaching to match. First, the front office decision making. Hey, I like Tee Higgens, but is this team is seriously valuing their second pass catcher over one of the best edge rushers in Tre Hendrickson? Now he’s sitting out and we do not know what is going to happen. I mean, it’s not like the 27th ranked defense in EPA needs a guy like that right? Sure, maybe he decides to end his holdout at some point in September, but there is a chance that this incompetent front office trades him. Look at what the Dallas Mavericks did with Luca. Anyways, I do expect this offense to be, once again, very good, and I also expect the defense to be, once again, well quite bad. Looking at the medium schedule, I think that their win total is a tad bit high. Maybe things line up for this team, and Joe Burrow continues to be clutch. After all, they are the only ones in this division who can beat the Ravens. This team has been stuck at nine wins for the last few years. The biggest issue with the Bengals is not personnel. It’s much more the coaching staff. Coach Zac Taylor has made some dumbfounded decisions over the past four or five years. I do not see it going any different. I could see the Bengals winning 8 – 10 games. Leaving this baby alone.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Lean under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 1
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.44
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Seattle, vs Indianapolis, @ LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, WR George Pickens, T Dan Moore, G/C James Daniels, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, OLB Elandon Roberts, WR Mike Williams, Edge Preston Smith, CB CJ Henderson, T Chukwuma Okafor
Key additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, LB Malik Harrison, CB Darius Slay, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Brandin Echols, S Juan Thornill, WR Robert Woods, RB Kenneth Gainwell, QB Skyler Thompson.
Key Draft Picks: DL Derrick Harmon, RB Kaleb Johnson, Edge Jack Sawyer, DL Yahya Black, QB Will Howard
Summary: Like we said last year, and the year before, and the year before that. When is the Steelers win total not 8.5? The sharpest season win total play was to go under that, and how did that work out for us? Not so good. I am not falling for this again, but if I sure will not be betting the over. What the Steelers are betting on is that Aaron Rogers is still good. I am quite sure that I am not so sure of that. Last season, the NFL’s drama king ranked 25th in QBR playing on the Jets with Stacked receivers and running backs. We have to go back to 2021 since Rogers was better than that. Second option Mason Rudolph has been crapped on by this team for the past five seasons. Now they decide to bring him back? Say what you want about Russ and Justin, but as far as I can tell, the Steelers made their team worse at the most important position in football. Pittsburgh has also revamped a bunch of positions, and if it wasn’t for TJ Watt, most of this team would be unrecognizable to the common football fan. I am sure that the front office thinks that they got better by shedding WR George Pickens and adding DK Metcalf, but I just do not see a situation where DK isn’t mouthing off himself due to not getting the ball. I do like Calvin Austin III a lot, and think he will benefit from some of these distractions. Another position that took a hit was running back. This team seems to like Jalen Warren, but I think his success was due to Najee taking the brunt of the opponents defense while he was more of a distract back. Similar to the NY Giants, the Steelers will be great in the defensive trenches. They seemed to focus in that area once again in this draft. I do like the additions of Darius Slay, and some of the depth pieces that they have added to their secondary. What I do not see is a lot of talent in the inside linebacker position, and that could be an issue when facing the stronger run teams in this league. It is hard to make a prediction on this team minus the fact that Rookie quarterback Will Howard might just step on in when Rogers craps out.
My Number: 7.09
Action – Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD) – Steelers under 8.5 wins -130 – .5 stars
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 4.5 Juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.75
Schedule: Hard – At large @ Las Vegas, vs San Francisco, vs Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB DeShawn Watson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, RT James Hudson, QB Jameis Winston, S Juan Thornhill, CB Michael Ford, T Jedrick Wills, C Nick Harris, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: QB Kenny Pickett, DT Maliek Collins, T Cornelius Lucas, OLB Joe Tryon, QB Joe Flacco, LB Devin Bush, G Teven Jenkins, S Rayshawn Jenkins
Key Draft Picks: DL Mason Graham, LB Carson Schwesinger, RB Quinshon Judkins, TE Harold Fannin Jr, QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Dylan Sampson, QB Shedeur Sanders
Summary: For the love of God. Everyone got the Browns wrong in the beginning of 2024. My projected 9.47 wins turned into three, and with all due disrespect, they were lucky to get that. The Browns are just a terrible organization, and just when you think that they made the best draft trade of the year, they go ahead and pick two running backs and two quarterbacks in later rounds. I honestly do not understand why the would pick Dillon Gabriel in the third round when he wasn’t projected to be in the top 5 rounds, and then go ahead and pick Shedeur Sanders who teams have soured on in the 5th round. It would have made more sense if these were flip-flopped, but here we are. The good news for this team is that there isn’t much room to be any worse than last year. Ranking dead last in offensive EPA leaves no room to get much worse. I do like the running back that they drafted in Quinshon Judkins, but this team still has to figure out the ever so crowded quarterback room. Another issue is that this team doesn’t have much at the wide receiver position since they traded Amari Cooper. The offensive line is poor, and they have not re-signed Tackle Jedrick Wills. The Browns defense was the only bright spot from 2025 led by an expensive Myles Garrett. The Brownies defense was a modest 18th in EPA per play. The real bad news is that the Browns have the second hardest schedule in the league. Part of that reason was getting the 49ers as their NFC at large game, as well as being net negative -7 days of rest. Playing the Ravens, the Bengals and the Steelers all twice isn’t much fun either. Can the Browns somehow find five or six wins this year? Maybe. Teams that were embarrassed tend to play better the following year, but do not bet the over on their season win total, because you might not have much fun in doing so.
My Number: 4.38
Action: Lean Under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -6.5
Ryan Fox (75-1) secured his second PGA TOUR victory of the season with a win at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic last month. He now joins Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Sepp Straka as the only players with multiple TOUR wins in 2025.
Our pick, Sam Burns (28-1), fell just short — losing in a playoff to Fox. That marks our sixth runner-up finish of the season.
Now, the spotlight shifts to the U.S. Open at historic Oakmont Country Club, where the drama has already begun before the first tee shot is even struck.
Bryson DeChambeau arrives at Oakmont with a legitimate chance to etch his name in the history books once again. The reigning U.S. Open champion captured his second title last year at Pinehurst No. 2, adding to his 2020 triumph at the punishing West Course at Winged Foot. Few players are built for the brutality of a U.S. Open setup quite like Bryson.
This season, he’s been a fixture on major leaderboards—finishing T5 at the Masters and runner-up at the PGA Championship. Now, he looks to join rare company, aiming to become the first player since Brooks Koepka (2017–2018) to go back-to-back at the U.S. Open.
If you’re curious to see how his game translated to Oakmont earlier this year, Bryson gave fans a glimpse during a “practice round” that was anything but casual. His power and precision are on full display:

Scottie Scheffler is running out of mountains to climb—and yet, this week, another summit awaits. The Masters champion added a second major title to his résumé in dominant fashion, dismantling the field at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow with a five-shot victory.
If Scheffler wins at Oakmont, he’ll stand one title shy of the career grand slam—a feat only a handful have ever achieved. With Rory already checking off Augusta this year, don’t be shocked if Scottie follows suit by conquering Oakmont. He enters the U.S. Open having won three of his last four starts, and his form continues to border on mythical.
At this point, betting against him feels like betting against gravity.
This year marks Phil Mickelson’s final exemption into the U.S. Open—his last official shot at completing the elusive career Grand Slam. Despite his six runner-up finishes in this championship, the U.S. Open remains the one major that has slipped through his grasp. In his ten previous attempts at capturing the final leg, Mickelson has failed to finish better than a tie for 28th. Now, at 54, he returns to Oakmont with history—and heartbreak—on his shoulders.
Rory McIlroy made history earlier this season by completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta National. Now, he turns his attention to the U.S. Open, where he’s aiming to tie Ben Hogan’s record of seven consecutive top-10 finishes. McIlroy has finished runner-up in each of the last two U.S. Opens, and his lone victory at this championship came in 2011 at Congressional (Blue Course).
He was part of the field the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont in 2016, though it was a forgettable week—he missed the cut.
McIlroy enters this week searching for better form after a disappointing T47 at the PGA Championship and a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open—his first early exit of the season.
The 125th U.S. Open will mark a record 10th time Oakmont Country Club has hosted the championship (1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994, 2007, 2016, and now 2025), the most of any venue. It will also be Oakmont’s 18th USGA championship and the first since the 2021 U.S. Amateur. In August 2021, Oakmont was officially named a U.S. Open anchor site, securing future championships in 2034, 2042, and 2049. The club is also set to host the U.S. Women’s Open in 2028 and 2038, the Walker Cup in 2033, and the U.S. Women’s Amateur in 2046.
Across the nine U.S. Opens held at Oakmont, just eight players have managed to post a score lower than 280. During the most recent championship in 2016, only four players finished the week under par—a testament to the relentless challenge Oakmont presents even to the world’s best.
| Year | Winner | Par | Winning Score |
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | 70 | -4 |
| 2007 | Ángel Cabrera | 70 | +5 |
| 1994 | Ernie Els | 71 | -5 |
| 1983 | Larry Nelson | 71 | -4 |
| 1973 | Johnny Miller | 71 | -5 |
| 1962 | Jack Nicklaus | 72 | -1 |
| 1953 | Ben Hogan | 72 | -5 |
| 1935 | Sam Parks Jr. | 72 | +11 |
| 1927 | Tommy Armour | 72 | +13 |
The last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont Country Club came in 2016, when Dustin Johnson broke through for his first major championship. His victory wasn’t without drama—Johnson was controversially assessed a penalty after his ball moved on the fifth green, though officials didn’t confirm the ruling until after his round. Unfazed, he delivered a composed final-round 69 to win by three shots.
From a betting standpoint, Dustin Johnson entered the 2016 U.S. Open as the fourth choice on the odds board, trailing Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth in pre-tournament favoritism. Below is a chart highlighting the most popular futures wagers placed ahead of that championship.

Why It Compares: Like Oakmont, Winged Foot is renowned for narrow fairways, thick rough, and some of the most complex greens in the world. The course demands elite ball-striking, strategic course management, and the ability to grind over 72 holes.
Course Traits: Firm, fast, tree-lined, brutal around the greens
Why It Compares: Oak Hill shares Oakmont’s northeastern roots and has undergone a restoration emphasizing classic Donald Ross elements — narrow fairways, penal bunkering, and elevated, contoured greens. It played extremely tough, with the winning score just under par.
Course Traits: Tight off the tee, long, demanding approach shots, fast green complexes
2023 PGA Championship Results:
Why It Compares: Bethpage Black is a long, punishing layout that mirrors Oakmont in its demand for total driving, resilience out of thick rough, and elite long iron play. Its narrow fairways, deep bunkers, and elevated greens reward disciplined tee-to-green control. The 2019 PGA Championship, held in May for the first time, played firm and fast, with wind and weather contributing to high scores outside of one dominant performance.
Course Traits: Long, thick rough, tree-lined, penal bunkering, rewards tee-to-green excellence
2019 PGA Championship Results:
While Torrey Pines lacks some of the architectural pedigree and historical gravitas of Oakmont, it still offers a comparable test in several key areas. The South Course stretches beyond 7,700 yards and features dense rough, narrow landing areas, and a premium on both length and accuracy off the tee — a profile that fits the U.S. Open mold to a tee.
Why It Compares: Though more modern in design and layout, Torrey Pines South is one of the few courses on TOUR that truly tests total driving, long-iron proximity, and scrambling from thick rough. Like Oakmont, it’s a venue where even par is often a good score depending on conditions.
Course Traits:

Oakmont Country Club, located in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, stands as one of the most storied and demanding venues in American golf. Founded in 1903 by Pittsburgh steel magnate Henry C. Fownes, the course was created to be an unrelenting test of skill, and it has remained true to that vision for more than a century. With its lightning-fast greens, cavernous bunkers, and thick rough, Oakmont is renowned as one of the toughest challenges in the game.
Constructed by hand with the help of 150 laborers and a team of horses, Oakmont officially opened in 1904 as an “inland links” course—designed to echo the characteristics of the great British links layouts despite its inland setting. Originally playing to a par of 80, the course has evolved, but the spirit of Fownes’ design remains intact.
Oakmont’s national profile grew under Henry’s son, William C. Fownes Jr., a decorated amateur who brought the 1919 U.S. Amateur to the club, launching its legacy as a championship venue. Since then, Oakmont has hosted 20 national championships, including a record nine U.S. Opens. The club has witnessed countless iconic moments: Ben Hogan’s comeback victory in 1953, Johnny Miller’s historic final-round 63 in 1973, and Dustin Johnson’s long-awaited major breakthrough in 2016.
Though tree plantings in the 1950s briefly altered its character, a major restoration in the early 2000s removed over 10,000 trees, returning Oakmont to its original open and punishing layout. Today, it remains one of the purest tests in championship golf and a fixture on the USGA’s future schedule, with multiple U.S. Opens and other major tournaments already slated for the decades ahead.
In 2023, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner led a significant renovation in preparation for Oakmont’s historic 10th U.S. Open. Their goal was to return the course even closer to Fownes’ original vision. Nearly 150 yards were added through new tees—such as on holes 3 and 11—bringing the championship layout to 7,372 yards and a par of 70. More impactful than distance, however, was the restoration of the greens. Using pre-1947 photos, Hanse and Wagner recaptured the squared-off edges and expanded putting surfaces by roughly 15%, reintroducing classic hole locations and reconnecting them to dramatically rebuilt bunkers.
Several holes received surgical updates. On Hole 2, a previously narrow fairway was widened, with bunkers repositioned to reward strategic tee shots. Hole 3 gained nearly 40 yards and an added “pew” in the infamous bunker, while a crescent-shaped bunker design tightened the landing zone. Hole 7 underwent the most dramatic redesign, restoring a long-lost cross-bunker and creating an alternate fairway. On Hole 13, the green was reshaped to make a subtle ridge playable again, creating a thrilling new pin location in the back-left. At the 17th, fairway bunkers were consolidated, and a previously safe bailout area was replaced with long fescue, ramping up the challenge.
These changes enhance Oakmont’s brutal beauty while honoring its legacy. As the club prepares to host more major championships—including U.S. Opens in 2025, 2033, 2042, and 2049—it remains a symbol of timeless championship golf.
Below is a comprehensive list of U.S. Open venues dating back to the tournament’s inception in 1895. While the championship rotates annually, several distinguished courses have earned the honor of hosting multiple times throughout its storied history.
| Year | Venue | Location |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 2024 | Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course) | Pinehurst, North Carolina |
| 2023 | Los Angeles Country Club (North Course) | Los Angeles, California |
| 2022 | The Country Club | Brookline, Massachusetts |
| 2021 | Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) | San Diego, California |
| 2020 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 2019 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 2018 | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | Southampton, New York |
| 2017 | Erin Hills | Erin, Wisconsin |
| 2016 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 2015 | Chambers Bay Golf Course | University Place, Washington |
| 2014 | Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course) | Pinehurst, North Carolina |
| 2013 | Merion Golf Club | Ardmore, Pennsylvania |
| 2012 | Olympic Club | San Francisco, California |
| 2011 | Congressional Country Club | Bethesda, Maryland |
| 2010 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 2009 | Bethpage State Park (Black Course) | Farmingdale, New York |
| 2008 | Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) | San Diego, California |
| 2007 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 2006 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 2005 | Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course) | Pinehurst, North Carolina |
| 2004 | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | Southampton, New York |
| 2003 | Olympia Fields Country Club | Olympia Fields, Illinois |
| 2002 | Bethpage State Park (Black Course) | Farmingdale, New York |
| 2001 | Southern Hills Country Club | Tulsa, Oklahoma |
| 2000 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 1999 | Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course) | Pinehurst, North Carolina |
| 1998 | Olympic Club | San Francisco, California |
| 1997 | Congressional Country Club | Bethesda, Maryland |
| 1996 | Oakland Hills Country Club | Bloomfield Hills, Michigan |
| 1995 | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | Southampton, New York |
| 1994 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1993 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1992 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 1991 | Hazeltine National Golf Club | Chaska, Minnesota |
| 1990 | Medinah Country Club | Medinah, Illinois |
| 1989 | Oak Hill Country Club | Rochester, New York |
| 1988 | The Country Club | Brookline, Massachusetts |
| 1987 | Olympic Club | San Francisco, California |
| 1986 | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | Southampton, New York |
| 1985 | Oakland Hills Country Club | Bloomfield Hills, Michigan |
| 1984 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 1983 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1982 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 1981 | Merion Golf Club | Ardmore, Pennsylvania |
| 1980 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1979 | Inverness Club | Toledo, Ohio |
| 1978 | Cherry Hills Country Club | Englewood, Colorado |
| 1977 | Southern Hills Country Club | Tulsa, Oklahoma |
| 1976 | Atlanta Athletic Club | Duluth, Georgia |
| 1975 | Medinah Country Club | Medinah, Illinois |
| 1974 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 1973 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1972 | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California |
| 1971 | Merion Golf Club | Ardmore, Pennsylvania |
| 1970 | Hazeltine National Golf Club | Chaska, Minnesota |
| 1969 | Champions Golf Club | Houston, Texas |
| 1968 | Oak Hill Country Club | Rochester, New York |
| 1967 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1966 | Olympic Club | San Francisco, California |
| 1965 | Bellerive Country Club | Town and Country, Missouri |
| 1964 | Congressional Country Club | Bethesda, Maryland |
| 1963 | The Country Club | Brookline, Massachusetts |
| 1962 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1961 | Oakland Hills Country Club | Bloomfield Hills, Michigan |
| 1960 | Cherry Hills Country Club | Englewood, Colorado |
| 1959 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 1958 | Southern Hills Country Club | Tulsa, Oklahoma |
| 1957 | Inverness Club | Toledo, Ohio |
| 1956 | Oak Hill Country Club | Rochester, New York |
| 1955 | Olympic Club | San Francisco, California |
| 1954 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1953 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1952 | Northwood Club | Dallas, Texas |
| 1951 | Oakland Hills Country Club | Bloomfield Hills, Michigan |
| 1950 | Merion Golf Club | Ardmore, Pennsylvania |
| 1949 | Medinah Country Club | Medinah, Illinois |
| 1948 | Riviera Country Club | Pacific Palisades, California |
| 1947 | St. Louis Country Club | Ladue, Missouri |
| 1946 | Canterbury Golf Club | Beachwood, Ohio |
| 1945 | No tournament (World War II) | |
| 1944 | No tournament (World War II) | |
| 1943 | No tournament (World War II) | |
| 1942 | No tournament (World War II) | |
| 1941 | Colonial Country Club | Fort Worth, Texas |
| 1940 | Canterbury Golf Club | Beachwood, Ohio |
| 1939 | Philadelphia Country Club | Gladwyne, Pennsylvania |
| 1938 | Cherry Hills Country Club | Englewood, Colorado |
| 1937 | Oakland Hills Country Club | Bloomfield Hills, Michigan |
| 1936 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1935 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1934 | Merion Golf Club | Ardmore, Pennsylvania |
| 1933 | North Shore Country Club | Glenview, Illinois |
| 1932 | Fresh Meadow Country Club | Flushing, New York |
| 1931 | Inverness Club | Toledo, Ohio |
| 1930 | Interlachen Country Club | Edina, Minnesota |
| 1929 | Winged Foot Golf Club | Mamaroneck, New York |
| 1928 | Olympia Fields Country Club | Olympia Fields, Illinois |
| 1927 | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania |
| 1926 | Scioto Country Club | Columbus, Ohio |
| 1925 | Worcester Country Club | Worcester, Massachusetts |
| 1924 | Oakland Hills Country Club | Bloomfield Hills, Michigan |
| 1923 | Inwood Country Club | Inwood, New York |
| 1922 | Skokie Country Club | Glencoe, Illinois |
| 1921 | Columbia Country Club | Chevy Chase, Maryland |
| 1920 | Inverness Club | Toledo, Ohio |
| 1919 | Brae Burn Country Club | West Newton, Massachusetts |
| 1918 | No tournament (World War I) | |
| 1917 | No tournament (World War I) | |
| 1916 | Minikahda Club | Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| 1915 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1914 | Midlothian Country Club | Midlothian, Illinois |
| 1913 | The Country Club | Brookline, Massachusetts |
| 1912 | Country Club of Buffalo | Buffalo, New York |
| 1911 | Chicago Golf Club | Wheaton, Illinois |
| 1910 | Philadelphia Cricket Club | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
| 1909 | Englewood Golf Club | Englewood, New Jersey |
| 1908 | Myopia Hunt Club | South Hamilton, Massachusetts |
| 1907 | Philadelphia Cricket Club | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
| 1906 | Onwentsia Club | Lake Forest, Illinois |
| 1905 | Myopia Hunt Club | South Hamilton, Massachusetts |
| 1904 | Glen View Club | Golf, Illinois |
| 1903 | Baltusrol Golf Club | Springfield, New Jersey |
| 1902 | Garden City Golf Club | Garden City, New York |
| 1901 | Myopia Hunt Club | South Hamilton, Massachusetts |
| 1900 | Chicago Golf Club | Wheaton, |
| 1899 | Baltimore (Roland Park Course) | Baltimore, Maryland |
| 1898 | Myopia Hunt Club | South Hamilton, Massachusetts |
| 1897 | Chicago | Wheaton, Illinois |
| 1896 | Shinnecock Hills | Shinnecock Hills, New York |
| 1895 | Newport | Newport, Rhode Island |
Oakmont Country Club, nestled along the Allegheny River just northeast of Pittsburgh, stands as a stern and unyielding monument to championship golf. Designed in 1903 by steel magnate Henry Fownes, the course is widely regarded as one of the most demanding tests in the game, by design and not by accident.
The layout unfolds across a rolling, open expanse of western Pennsylvania terrain with no water hazards and almost no trees, offering a raw and unfiltered examination of a player’s skill, discipline, and mental fortitude. Yet what Oakmont lacks in natural ornamentation, it more than compensates for in sheer architectural audacity.
At the heart of Oakmont’s relentless challenge are its lightning-fast greens, arguably the fastest in major championship golf. Heavily sloped, firm, and treacherously quick, they place an extraordinary premium on precise approach play and razor-sharp putting. Many of these greens are perched or crowned, often repelling anything less than the most precisely judged shot.
Bunkering at Oakmont is another signature element. The course is flanked by over 200 bunkers, many of them deep, cavernous, and brutal in nature. Chief among them is the infamous Church Pews bunker, a massive hazard that separates the third and fourth fairways with 13 distinctive grassy ridges. Its visual intimidation is matched only by its strategic influence.
The routing is a masterclass in subtle difficulty. Holes ebb and flow across the property with very little respite. The par 70 layout stretches to over 7,300 yards, demanding accuracy and courage from the first tee to the final green. It begins with a relatively gentle par four, only to quickly escalate in intensity with stern doglegs, long par fours, and narrow fairways that reward placement over power.
Each nine has its own character.
The front nine is varied and tactical, highlighted by the long par three eighth and the brutish uphill ninth, converted from a par five to a par four for championship play.
The back nine is merciless, with a closing stretch that has decided numerous U.S. Opens. The par three sixteenth is long and exposed, the seventeenth invites boldness off the tee, and the eighteenth, a long uphill par four, is a true finishing gauntlet.
Thanks to recent restorations by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, Oakmont has recaptured much of its original form. Greens have been expanded to their historic edges, bunkers restructured to match early photographs, and fairways widened in strategic zones. These changes have not softened Oakmont’s bite, they have simply made it truer to its architectural roots.
In its essence, Oakmont is pure golf, a course that exposes weakness, rewards courage, and rarely forgives a moment’s lapse in concentration. For over a century, it has been a proving ground for champions and a crucible for the game’s finest talents.
Oakmont’s quartet of par threes presents a formidable examination of precision and control. Ranging from 182 to a daunting 289 yards, three of the four stretch beyond the 200-yard mark, demanding long irons or even fairway metals into narrow, well-defended targets. During the 2016 U.S. Open, each par three played over par with one exception. No. 13, the shortest of the set at just under 200 yards, yielded a scoring average of 2.99. It was the only brief moment of relative respite in an otherwise unforgiving set of one-shot holes.
Hole 6 | Par 3 | 200 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.14 (Difficulty Rank – 11)

The first of Oakmont’s par 3s requires precision. Aiming for the center of the green is key, as a miss left or right significantly reduces the chances of saving par.
Hole 8 | Par 3 | 289 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.30 (Difficulty Rank – 8)

One of the longest par 3s in the world, the 8th green is more receptive to a right-to-left ball flight. Par is an excellent score here. In U.S. Open history, this hole has twice held the distinction of being the longest par three ever played in the event, stretching to 299 yards during the final round in 2016 and reaching an even 300 yards in the final round in 2007.
Hole 13 | Par 3 | 182 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 2.99 (Difficulty Rank – 16)

The par 3 13th requires a perfect short-to-mid iron into its famously undulating green. A miss long or right makes saving par nearly impossible. Staying below the hole is essential for any realistic birdie or par chance.
Hole 16 | Par 3 | 236 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.24 (Difficulty Rank – 9)

A long iron or fairway wood is needed to reach this large green, which features a severe false front. The trench bunker along the left side makes this par 3 a formidable challenge.
Oakmont Country Club presents a formidable collection of twelve par fours, each sculpted to test a player’s full command of the game. The majority of these holes, four in total, fall within the demanding 450-to-500-yard range. The shortest of the group, the 17th, measures a mere 312 yards, offering a tempting risk-reward opportunity late in the round. In contrast, the 15th stands as the longest par four on the course at a stern 507 yards, requiring a pair of well-executed shots to reach the green in regulation. During the 2016 U.S. Open, the first hole emerged as the most difficult, playing to an average of 4.45 strokes, while the 17th proved the most forgiving, yielding a scoring average of 3.89.
Hole 1 | Par 4 | 289 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.45 (Difficulty Rank – 1)

One of the most challenging opening holes in golf, this par 4 demands a precise tee shot followed by a mid-iron approach into a green that slopes away from the player. Walking away with a par here is an excellent start.
Hole 3 | Par 4 | 462 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.32 (Difficulty Rank – 7)

The famous Church Pews bunker on the left, cavernous bunkers on the right, and an elevated green that requires a high, soft approach with controlled spin make this one of the most difficult par 4s in the country.
Hole 9 | Par 4 | 472 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.43 (Difficulty Rank – 2)

A blind tee shot, an infamous ditch looming on the left, and bunkers lining the right, make this one of Oakmont’s most demanding holes. Framed by the historic clubhouse and connected to the practice green, the 9th features one of the most iconic green complexes in the game.
Hole 15 | Par 4 | 507 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.39 (Difficulty Rank – 3)

This long par 4 features a blind tee shot to a fairway that slopes left to right. A mid-to-long iron approach is typically required into a large, sloping green. A par here can provide valuable momentum heading into the final stretch.
Hole 17 | Par 4 | 312 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.89 (Difficulty Rank – 18)

Several strategies can be used to play this hole, but each requires a well-executed shot at some point to secure a par or birdie.
Hole 18 | Par 4 | 502 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.32 (Difficulty Rank – 6)

One of the best finishing holes in golf, Oakmont’s 18th hole demands four well-played shots to make par. A memorable finish awaits those who execute well.
Oakmont Country Club boasts two imposing par fives, the fourth and twelfth holes, each extending over 600 yards. In the 2016 U.S. Open, the fourth hole stood out by playing just under par with a scoring average of 4.97, while the twelfth demanded greater precision and patience, posting a scoring average of 5.14.
Hole 4 | Par 5 | 611 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.97 (Difficulty Rank – 17)

Playing along the opposite side of the Church Pews, the left side of this par 5 is daunting, while bunkers and thick rough on the right add to the challenge. Longer hitters can reach the green in two, but a committed line on the blind second shot is necessary to create an eagle opportunity.
Hole 12 | Par 5 | 632 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 5.14 (Difficulty Rank – 10)

The final par 5 at Oakmont demands three well-executed shots. Bunkers and ditches along both sides require strategic play. The green slopes severely from front to back, making approach shots difficult to hold.
| Hole | Yards | Par | Hole | Yards | Par | |
| 1 | 488 | 4 | 10 | 461 | 4 | |
| 2 | 346 | 4 | 11 | 400 | 4 | |
| 3 | 462 | 4 | 12 | 632 | 5 | |
| 4 | 611 | 5 | 13 | 182 | 3 | |
| 5 | 408 | 4 | 14 | 379 | 4 | |
| 6 | 200 | 3 | 15 | 507 | 4 | |
| 7 | 485 | 4 | 16 | 236 | 3 | |
| 8 | 289 | 3 | 17 | 312 | 4 | |
| 9 | 472 | 4 | 18 | 502 | 4 | |
| OUT | 3,761 | 35 | IN | 3,611 | 35 | |
| TOTAL | 7,372 | 70 | ||||
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 9, 17, 18
The U.S. Open takes place at Oakmont Country Club. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
| Statistics | PGA Tour Average | Oakmont Country Club |
| Driving Distance (Yards) | 283.83 | N/A |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 55% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 56% |
| Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet) | 29.17 | N/A |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 40% |
| Avg 3 Putts / Round | 0.55 | 1.21 |
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green – Rough Length: Long
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua) – Green Speed: Lightning
3-Putt Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Total – Scoring Relative to Par: Difficult
Driving Distance Gained
Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 Yards
Bogey Avoidance Gained
Sand Saves Gained
Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
Major History
Comparable Courses
The 2025 U.S. Open will welcome a field of 156 players, including 49 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking. The only absence among the elite is Billy Horschel, who will miss the U.S. Open as he recovers from recent surgery on his right hip.

Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the top players in the field for this year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, ranked by current betting odds (via DraftKings). The table below details each player’s five most recent finishes on the PGA TOUR and their last five results at the U.S. Open.
| Golfer | Odds | Last 5 Finishes on the PGA TOUR (Recent -> Past) | Last 5 Finishes at the U.S. Open (Recent -> Past) |
| Scottie Scheffler | +275 | WON-T4-WON-WON-T8 | T41-3-T2-T7-MC |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 | MC-T47-T7-T12-WON | 2-2-T5-T7-T8 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +800 | T4-T2-WON-T2-T5 | WON-T20-T56-T26-WON |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 | T8-T8-T7-4-T24 | T10-T12-WON-T23-T3 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 | T25-T28-T11-T18-T8 | T7-T10-T14-T7-5 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 | T20-T50-T17-MC-T54 | T14-T14-T5-T4-MC |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3500 | T16-T4-T41-T4-7 | T16-T5-MC-T50-MC |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3500 | T13-T16-MC-T60-T54-7 | T12 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +3500 | WON-T8-T20-WON-T29 | T32-T47-T32-T23-MC |
| Justin Thomas | +4000 | T31-MC-T2-WON-T36 | MC-MC-T37-T19-T8 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +4500 | T15-T60-T13-T5-T14 | T26-T27-T56-MC-MC |
| Shane Lowry | +4500 | T13-T23-MC-T2-T12 | T19-T20-MC-T65-T43 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 | 3-MC-WON-T12-T13 | T56-MC-MC-T28 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +5000 | T12-MC-T4-T13-T36 | T3-T14-T14-T15-T43 |
| Brooks Koepka | +5500 | T33-MC-T17-T30-MC | T26-T17-55-T4-2 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 | T27-T25-T29-T11-T49 | T9-MC-MC-MC-MC |
| Viktor Hovland | +6000 | T25-T28-T54-T13-T21 | MC-19-MC-WD-T13 |
| Russell Henley | +6500 | T5-MC-T46-T8-MC | T7-T14-MC-T13-T25 |
| Ben Griffin | +7000 | 2-WON-T8-T46-MC | – |
| Jordan Spieth | +7000 | T7-T36-MC-T34-4 | T41-MC-T37-T19-MC |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +7000 | 38-T36-MC-T17-T21 | 6-T32-4-T26-T17 |
| Sam Burns | +8000 | 2-T12-T19-T30-T5 | T9-T32-T27-MC-T41 |
All 10 winners were ranked inside the top 32 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), with nine of them inside the top 25.
Eight of the past 10 winners were American.
Nine of the past 10 winners had already recorded a top 25 finish in a previous U.S. Open.
Nine of the past 10 winners had posted a top 10 finish in at least one of their two most recent majors.
Eight of the last 10 winners had a top 12 finish in one or both of their two most recent PGA Tour starts.
All credit goes to Dave Tindall. Be sure to check out his 10-year trends article here.

The most recent U.S. Open to be decided by a playoff came in 2008 at Torrey Pines, where Tiger Woods famously edged Rocco Mediate in a dramatic Monday finish to capture his third U.S. Open title. Since then, the U.S. Open has not required extra holes, marking the longest playoff drought among golf’s four major championships.
At Oakmont Country Club, three of the previous nine U.S. Opens have also gone to a playoff. Tommy Armour defeated Harry Cooper in 1927, Jack Nicklaus topped Arnold Palmer in 1962, and Ernie Els outdueled Colin Montgomerie and Loren Roberts in 1994.

The last hole-in-one at Oakmont Country Club during a U.S. Open came in 1983, when Scott Simpson aced the 228-yard 16th hole. No aces were recorded in the 2016, 2007, or 1994 championships held at Oakmont.
However, hole-in-ones have become more common in recent U.S. Opens. Each of the past three editions featured at least one: two were made at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024, two at Los Angeles Country Club in 2023, and one at The Country Club in 2022.

The most recent wire-to-wire victory at the U.S. Open came in 2014, when Martin Kaymer dominated from start to finish at Pinehurst No. 2.
Oakmont Country Club has seen just one wire-to-wire champion in its storied history—Ben Hogan in 1953.
The projected winning score for the U.S. Open is set at 278.5. That means a winning score of -2 or better cashes the under, while -1 or worse hits the over.
When Oakmont last hosted in 2016, Dustin Johnson posted a 276 (-4) en route to victory. But since then, the course has undergone a significant renovation—adding even more bite to an already punishing layout.
Players expect a brutal test. Most have pegged the winning score around even par, but Ben Griffin went a step further, suggesting it could take as much as +5 to win.
The last time the winner of the U.S. Open had a winning score was Brooks Koepka (+1) in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills.
| U.S. Open | U.S. Open | U.S. Open | U.S. Open | U.S. Open | |||
| Pinehurst Resort (Course No. 2) | Los Angeles Country Club (North Course) | The Country Club (Composite Course) | Torrey Pines (South Course) | Winged Foot (West Course) | |||
| Golfer | Events Played | SG: Total (Event) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16 | +65.00 | 2 | 2 | T5 | T7 | T8 |
| Xander Schauffele | 8 | +53.00 | T7 | T10 | T14 | T7 | 5 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 10 | +49.00 | WON | T20 | T56 | T26 | WON |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 12 | +45.00 | 6 | T32 | 4 | T26 | T17 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 7 | +42.65 | T41 | 3 | T2 | T7 | – |
| Patrick Cantlay | 8 | +41.99 | T3 | T14 | T14 | T15 | T43 |
| Jon Rahm | 8 | +40.86 | – | T10 | T12 | WON | T23 |
| Harris English | 9 | +32.94 | T41 | T8 | T61 | 3 | 4 |
| Joohyung (Tom) Kim | 3 | +23.57 | T26 | T8 | 23 | – | – |
| Min Woo Lee | 3 | +23.57 | T21 | T5 | T27 | – | – |
| Brooks Koepka | 11 | +22.65 | T26 | T17 | 55 | T4 | – |
| Denny McCarthy | 5 | +21.57 | T32 | T20 | T7 | – | – |
| Guido Migliozzi | 2 | +19.47 | – | – | T14 | T4 | – |
| Collin Morikawa | 6 | +42.46 | T14 | T14 | T5 | T4 | MC |
| Dustin Johnson | 17 | +31.97 | MC | T10 | T24 | T19 | T6 |
| Russell Henley | 10 | +29.03 | T7 | T14 | MC | T13 | – |
| U.S. Open | U.S. Open | U.S. Open | U.S. Open | U.S. Open | |||
| Pinehurst Resort (Course No. 2) | Los Angeles Country Club (North Course) | The Country Club (Composite Course) | Torrey Pines (South Course) | Winged Foot (West Course) | |||
| Golfer | Events Played | SG: Total (Event) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Victor Perez | 5 | -17.15 | MC | MC | MC | MC | MC |
| Nick Dunlap | 3 | -11.47 | MC | MC | MC | – | – |
| Nick Taylor | 6 | -2.47 | MC | MC | MC | – | – |
| Cameron Davis | 2 | -10.24 | MC | MC | – | – | – |
| Carlos Ortiz | 4 | -5.90 | – | MC | – | MC | – |
| Byeong Hun An | 8 | -5.00 | MC | – | – | – | MC |
| Phil Mickelson | 22 | -21.56 | MC | MC | MC | T62 | MC |
| Maxwell Moldovan | 3 | -20.03 | MC | 65 | MC | – | – |
| Justin Rose | 19 | -6.53 | MC | MC | T37 | MC | MC |
| U.S. Open | |
| Oakmont Country Club | |
| Golfer | 2016 |
| Dustin Johnson | WON |
| Shane Lowry | T2 |
| Jason Day | T8 |
| Brooks Koepka | T13 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | T15 |
| Marc Leishman | T18 |
| Adam Scott | T18 |
| Byeong Hun An | T23 |
| Jon Rahm (a) | T23 |
| U.S. Open | U.S. Open | |
| Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont Country Club | |
| Golfer | 2016 | 2007 |
| Tom Hoge | MC | – |
| Carlos Ortiz | MC | – |
| Hideki Matsuyama | MC | – |
| Lucas Glover | MC | MC |
| Sam Burns (a) | MC | – |
| Keegan Bradley | MC | – |
| Justin Rose | MC | – |
| Patrick Reed | MC | – |
| Rory McIlroy | MC | – |
| Denny McCarthy | MC | – |
| Chris Kirk | MC | – |
| Scottie Scheffler (a) | MC | – |
| Phil Mickelson | MC | MC |
| Tony Finau | MC | – |
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 4th | 3rd | 9th | 17th | 12th |
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Wyndham Clark | 2nd | 7th | 49th | 3rd | 4th |
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2nd | 1st | 10th | 1st | 42nd |
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Jon Rahm | 5th | 5th | 11th | 17th | 20th |
| SG: Off the Tee | SG: Tee to Green | SG: Approach | SG: Around the Green | SG: Putting | |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 2nd | 1st | 1st | 3rd | 18th |
2024: Bryson DeChambeau
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
| Los Angeles Country Club (North Course) | The Country Club (Composite Course) | Torrey Pines (South Course) | Winged Foot (West Course) | Pebble Beach | Shinnecock Hills | Erin Hills | Oakmont | Chambers Bay | |
| Bryson DeChambeau | T20 | T56 | T26 | WON | T35 | T25 | MC | T15 | MC |
2023: Wyndham Clark
| 2022 | 2021 | |
| The Country Club (Composite Course) | Torrey Pines (South Course) | |
| Wyndham Clark | MC | MC |
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2014 | |
| Torrey Pines (South Course) | Winged Foot (West Course) | Pebble Beach | Shinnecock Hills | Erin Hills | Oakmont | Pinehurst No. 2 | |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | T55 | MC | T12 | T12 | T35 | T54 | T48 |
2021: Jon Rahm
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
| Winged Foot (West Course) | Pebble Beach | Shinnecock Hills | Erin Hills | Oakmont | |
| Jon Rahm | T23 | T3 | MC | MC | T23 |
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
| Pebble Beach | Shinnecock Hills | Erin Hills | Oakmont | Chambers Bay | |
| Bryson DeChambeau | T35 | T25 | MC | T15 | MC |




Bryson DeChambeau has shown strong form in the season’s first two Majors, finishing tied for 5th at the Masters and runner-up at last month’s PGA Championship. On the LIV Tour, he continues to impress with finishes of T4 at LIV Virginia last week, a win at LIV Korea, and T2 at LIV Mexico City in his last three events.
As the defending U.S. Open champion, Bryson is returning to Pinehurst Course No. 2, where he claimed last year’s title. This was his second U.S. Open win after his 2020 victory at Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course), a key comparable course this week. Additionally, Bryson has strong results at similar venues: T4 at Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship), T26 at Torrey Pines (South Course, 2021 U.S. Open), and T15 at Oakmont Country Club in the 2016 U.S. Open.
Regionally, Bryson has excelled at Northeastern courses, with wins at the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship (TPC Boston, Massachusetts) and the 2018 Northern Trust (Ridgewood Country Club, New Jersey).
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 2 | 1 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 125 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 19 | 142 |

Jon Rahm has played well through the first two Majors this year, finishing T14 at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship. On the LIV Tour, his recent results include T8 at LIV Virginia, T7 at LIV Korea, and 4th at LIV Mexico City.
Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines (South Course), a comparable venue for this week. He also finished T12 and T10 in the 2022 and 2023 U.S. Opens, respectively, though he withdrew from the 2024 event due to a foot infection. Like Bryson, Rahm played the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, finishing T23.
He has found success on Northeastern courses, with strong finishes such as T6 at the 2020 Northern Trust and T4 at the 2017 Dell Technologies Championship, both held at TPC Boston. He also placed T8 at the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club, Delaware) and T24 at the 2018 BMW Championship (Aronimink Golf Club, Pennsylvania).
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 49 | 48 | 67 | 34 | 1 | 138 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 64 | 44 |

Joaquin Niemann has been the standout player on the LIV Tour this season with four wins, including LIV Adelaide, LIV Singapore, LIV Mexico City, and most recently LIV Virginia.
Though he has struggled historically in Majors, Niemann is showing improvement, finishing T29 in the first Major of the year and posting a career-best T8 at the recent PGA Championship.
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 8 | 13 | 12 | 38 | 19 | 121 | 33 | 21 | 49 | 101 | 135 | 4 | 57 | 8 |

At 35, Harris English is playing some of his best golf, highlighted by his 5th PGA Tour win this season at the Farmers Insurance Open, held at Torrey Pines (South Course)—a comparable course this week. He has three top 15s in his last four PGA Tour starts.
English performed well in the first two Majors this year, finishing T12 at the Masters and runner-up at the PGA Championship. His best U.S. Open finish was 3rd in 2021 at Torrey Pines, and he also placed T8 at last year’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club (North Course). Like many others, he played Oakmont in 2016, finishing T37.
English’s regional success includes a T2 at the 2020 Northern Trust (TPC Boston), a 2021 Travelers Championship win (TPC River Highlands, Connecticut), and a T11 at the Truist Championship (Philadelphia Cricket Club) this season.
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 36 | 46 | 28 | 139 | 161 | 3 | 24 | 115 | 123 | 57 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 67 |

Northeastern native Keegan Bradley, born in Vermont and a Boston Common Golf Team member, enters this Major in solid form with consecutive top 10 PGA Tour finishes. He’s made only one cut miss in 13 starts, though he missed the cut at the Masters and finished T8 at the PGA Championship.
Bradley’s recent U.S. Open results have been mixed, with a T32 in 2024, missed cut in 2023, and T7 in 2022. Regionally, he’s excelled with a 2023 Travelers Championship win (TPC River Highlands), T30 at the Truist Championship, and a 2018 BMW Championship victory at Aronimink Golf Club.
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 3 | 37 | 11 | 33 | 161 | 58 | 12 | 32 | 57 | 42 | 114 | 61 | 103 | 17 |

Taylor Pendrith is coming off a T27 at the RBC Canadian Open, following strong recent finishes of T12 at the Memorial Tournament and T5 at the PGA Championship.
Pendrith’s U.S. Open results have varied, including a T16 last year at Pinehurst No. 2, missed cuts in 2021 and 2023, and a T23 in 2020 at Winged Foot. He also showed form at Torrey Pines earlier this season with a T7.
He has performed well in the Northeast, highlighted by a T8 at the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club).
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 40 | 11 | 50 | 127 | 15 | 72 | 23 | 18 | 139 | 72 | 61 | 59 | 150 | 24 |
Shane Lowry arrives at this Major in excellent form, with five top-25 finishes in his last six events. His only recent setback was missing the cut at the PGA Championship due to struggles in short game and putting. Earlier this year, he finished T42 at the Masters.
Lowry’s U.S. Open performances include T19 in 2024 at Pinehurst No. 2 and T20 in 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club (North Course). He placed T2 at Oakmont in the 2016 U.S. Open.
He also has solid results at Northeastern venues with a T9 at the 2024 Travelers Championship, T19 in 2023, and T12 at the 2022 BMW Championship. In Pennsylvania, he finished T2 at the Truist Championship.
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 9 | 85 | 3 | 22 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 164 | 14 | 97 | 26 |
Patrick Cantlay comes into this Major with four top-25 finishes in his last five events. His recent PGA Championship was a struggle, missing the cut and facing challenges in all areas except driving.
Cantlay’s U.S. Open record is impressive with a T3 last year at Pinehurst No. 2, and multiple top-15 finishes in previous years. He also performs well at comparable courses, finishing T9 at Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship) and T5 at Torrey Pines (South Course, 2025 Genesis Invitational).
Regionally, Cantlay has consistent success with top finishes at Northeastern courses including the Travelers Championship and BMW Championship, as well as a T4 at the Truist Championship.
| SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: ATG | SG: P (Poa) | 3 Putt Avoid. | SG: T (Diff.) | Driving Dist. | P3: 225+ | P4: 450-500 | P5: 600-650 | Bogey Avoid. | Sand Saves | Prox: 175-200 |
| 21 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 158 | 84 | 14 | 24 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 10 | 49 | 6 |
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The co-main event of UFC 316 features a highly anticipated women’s bantamweight title fight between reigning champion Julianna Peña and two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. Tonight’s bout takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, and is generating major buzz due to the fighters’ contrasting backgrounds, styles, and the high stakes involved.
Peña enters as a significant underdog, with odds ranging from +400 to +500, while Harrison is the overwhelming favorite at -625 to -800. The betting lines suggest that Harrison is expected to dominate, particularly in the grappling exchanges.
Peña’s best chance lies in making the fight a brawl, as Harrison has acknowledged that chaotic exchanges could favor the champion. However, Harrison’s superior clinch work and takedown ability make it unlikely that Peña will be able to dictate the fight’s pace.
Harrison’s most probable path to victory is through her grappling dominance. She has a strong positional game, particularly from half guard, and has shown an ability to control opponents with relentless pressure. Peña, while tough and resilient, has struggled against elite grapplers in the past, but she hasn’t been submitted since 2020.
I liked Pena’s resilience that she has shown over the past few years against Amanda Nunes. While she will not win the striking or grappling battle, she can last the full five rounds and has proved it over her last four fights. I think that Harrison probably gets the win, but at the same time, she has only finished one out of her last four opponents. Harrison wins by decision more often than not, but let’s take the safe rout over 4.5 rounds.
Over 4.5 rounds +154 – 1 star
Bonus Play: Ariane De Silva +425 – 1 star – Ariane Da Silva (formerly Ariane Lipsky) came in a whopping six pounds overweight. I have to assume that she didn’t even really try to cut that much, and will have the weight advantage during this fight. Cong Wang mistakenly accepted the fight even though she will be smaller individule. Da Silva has a huge strength of opponent advantage over Cong, and she can fight both on her feet as well as on the mat. This number is much too big to pass up.
The 2025 Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown is upon us today at Saratoga Race Course instead of Belmont Park due to ongoing renovations. The race will be run at 1.25 miles instead of the traditional 1.5-mile distance. There are a total of eight horses in this race which is a bit lower than I had expected.
Nobody loves having to bet the favorites in horse racing, but I honestly think that this is a two horse race between the Kentucky Derby winning Sovereignty and the Preakness winner Journalism. I rate them both as equal being that Sovereignty had a longer layoff. Both of these horses have run the fastest Beyers speed figures of all the three year old thoroughbreds to date. Some say that Journalism would have beaten Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby had this horse had a better trip. I am not 100% sure on that, but I do know that the six horse Baeza was also coming in to attempt a big finish and ended up third. I think that Baeza is worth a look with Flavien Prat as the Jockey. Prat, right now, is probably the best jockey in the field. I have a third spot reserved for Baeza as I think that he is the third best horse in this race. I will however have Baeza in a trifecta savor box with the other two favorites. The way that I will construct my ticket is to have the big exacta box with Journalism and Sovereignty. I will have Baeza at third with a few other combinations at the show spot as I think that the only other three horses that can hit the board are Rodriguez, Crudo, and Hill Road. Here is my ticket for a total of $150. Best of luck everyone!
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Saratoga, Jun 07
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Race #13
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Trifecta Box
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| 1st[1, 3, 6] | |
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6 bets @
$5
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Ticket total
$30
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Saratoga, Jun 07
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Race #13
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Exacta Box
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| 1st[2, 7] | |
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2 bets @
$25
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Ticket total
$50
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Saratoga, Jun 07
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Race #13
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Trifecta
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| 1st[2, 7] – 2nd[2, 7] – 3rd[3, 6] | |
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4 bets @
$10
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Ticket total
$40
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Saratoga, Jun 07
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Race #13
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Trifecta
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| 1st[2, 7] – 2nd[2, 7] – 3rd[1, 5] | |
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$4 bets @
$5
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Ticket total
$20
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Saratoga, Jun 07
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Race #13
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Superfecta
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| 1st[2, 7] – 2nd[2, 7] – 3rd[6] – 4th[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8] | |
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10 bets @
$1
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Ticket total
$10
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