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Friday Free Play Video:

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3 Free Selections:
NBA: Thunder/Pacers
WNBA: Sky/Dream
MLB: Padres/D-Backs

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AFC South 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting

The AFC South  –  The AFC South is the most agonizing division in the NFL.  In the beginning of the season, the Titans blew a massive 17 point lead to the Bears, all during the second half.  They also choked the next few games away as well.  The Jaguars were grossly incompetent as well in choking away their first two games, while the Colts continue to have quarterback issues.  The Texans once again had it pretty easy last season, and it didn’t take much for them to slither into the playoffs.  This season, this division plays the AFC West and the NFC West, which is tricky as due to more travel.  Can the Texans keep their number one spot?  Are the Jaguars ever going to play up to their talent?  Can the Colts rush their way into the playoffs?  How bad will the Titans be this season?   Let’s dive in.

Best Bet:  Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 wins – 1 star

Division Winner:  Texans +115 – Jags +260 – Colts +380 – Titans +650

1. Houston Texans –

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120

2024 Wins: 10

Pythagorean Wins:  8.5

Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore, vs Buffalo

Schedule Last Year:  Medium

Key losses: T Laremy Tunsil, G Kenyon Green, WR Stephon Diggs (didn’t play much), S Eric Murray, CB Jeff Okudah, QB Case Keenum, WR Robert Woods, G Shaq Mason.

Key additions:  WR Christian Kirk, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, T Cam Robinson, CB Tremon Smith, LB Nick Niemann, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Justin Watson, G Laken Tomlinson, CB Ronald Darby.

Key Draft Picks: WR Jayden Higgins, T Aireontae Ersery.

Summary:  The Texans were once again very busy in free agency.  Some analysts were shocked that they decided to trade tackle Laremy Tunsil, and Kenyon Green.  This team was poor at protecting CJ Stroud, so changes had to be made.  Dumping wide receiver Stephon Diggs is already proving to be the right move here in the offseason.  Most importantly, this team didn’t have to be great to make the playoffs ranking only 21st in offensive EPA.  Their defense certainly helped carry the way ranking 6th in overall EPA, and I do not see them taking a step back on that side of the ball, especially with a defensive minded coach like Demeco Ryans.  I like how this team added slot receiver Christian Kirk.  Wide receivers Nico Collins & Tank Dell should finally be back healthy, and I expect some big improvement this year in the offense.  The Texan’s schedule doesn’t set up too bad for a first place team.  There really isn’t all that much more to say about Houston.  They made all the right moves.  I think that this team could be the one of the best teams that nobody is talking about in the AFC.

My Number:  10.25

Action:  Lean Over

Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.25

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – 

Vegas win total: 7.5

2024 Wins: 4

Pythagorean Wins: 5.42

Schedule: Easy – at large vs Carolina, @ Cincinnati, vs NY Jets

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: HC Doug Peterson, TE Evan Engram, S Andre Cisco, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, CB Ronald Darby, G Brandon Sherff.

Key additions: HC Liam Coen, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Jourdain Lewis, C Robert Hainsey, S Eric Murray, WR Dyami Brown, T Chuma Edoga.

Key Draft Picks:  WR/CB Travis Hunter, CB Caleb Ransaw, T Wyatt Milum, LB Jack Kiser.

Summary:  Loving you,… is easy cause your beautiful…  Isn’t that how the song goes?  Well, this is how the Jags felt when they traded up from number five to get Travis Hunter at number two.  Like we know in all relationships, wait until you get to know them.  The good news is that I really believe that Travis Hunter is a great guy.   Now, that doesn’t mean that he is worth all that this team has given up for him.  I mean, what are you doing Jags?   Last year’s top wide receiver pick in Brian Thomas Jr. had one of the most phenomenal rookie years that anyone could ask for.  So now you get another star that will take catches and targets away from Thomas?   Especially when you need so much. The bigger problem with Travis Hunter is that if he is a true unicorn, and can play both ways, doesn’t his chance of getting injured go up as well?   Last season at Colorado, Hunter had to take some plays off while on the field due to fatigue.  I did see him get burned a few times on defense.  Last season, the Jaguars ranked 31st in defensive EPA, and 19th respectively on offense.  They needed to get more dudes in the middle to help stop the run.  So the biggest change to this team was convincing new head coach Liam Coen to leave Tampa Bay and come across the limestone State to Jacksonville.  I honestly do like this hire, and Coen was a huge part of Tampa Bay’s resurgence.  Coaching matters greatly in this league, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never had a good one.  I think that this might be the key to the whole season.  With a little luck, the Jaguars can possibly make a run at this division.  Fair warning, I lose money betting on this Jaguars team every year.  I am not going to stop now as maybe it all works out on an easy schedule.

My Number:  8.21

Action – Jaguars over 7.5 wins -115 – 1 star – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +172 – .5 stars

Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – -1

3. Indianapolis Colts – 

Vegas win total: 7.5

2024 Wins:  8

Pythagorean Wins:  7.18

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Miami, @ Pittsburgh, vs Atlanta (neutral in Berlin),

Schedule Last Year:  Medium Easy

Key losses: G Will Fries, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, C Ryan Kelly, K Matt Gay, QB Joe Flacco, LB EJ Speed, TE Kylen Granson, DT Raekwon Davis, S Julian Blackmon.

Key additions: S Camryn Bynum, CB Charvarius Ward, QB Daniel Jones, WR Ashton Dulin, K Spencer Shrader.

Whom they drafted:  TE Tyler Warren, Edge JT Tuimoloau, CB Justin Walley, QB Riley Leonard, DL Tim Smith.

Summary:  What’s the old saying?  If you have two quarterbacks, then you have no quarterbacks.  As I stated last year, Anthony Richardson is a bust.  So what do they do?  They pick up another bust from the Giants in Daniel Jones.  I honestly do not know what to do with this team.  They seem to be wasting the talent of running back half back Jonathan Taylor, and guard Quenton Nelson.  Coach Shane Steichen is on the hot seat this year, and he doesn’t have a lot of guys to dig him out.  The Offensive line is mid at best, the defense should be half way decent with all of the prospects that they have picked up.  The draft pick of Tyler Warren was great, but this team didn’t seem to care to use their tight ends well in the past.  I do not see much of a pass rush here to get to the better quarterbacks in this league.  The best hope for the Colts is for late round draft pick Riley Leonard to all of a sudden develop an NFL arm.  He can at least run the ball pretty well, and if Steichen can keep this offense somewhat simple, maybe, just maybe, they can win eight games again.  In saying that, purgatory is what I continue to expect to see in the future for the Colts.

My Number:  8.45

Action – No Play

Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -3

4.  Tennessee Titans –

Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -150

2024 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  4.66

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Cleveland, vs New Orleans

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses:  OLB Harold Landry, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Quandre Diggs, K Nick Folk.

Key additions: T Dan Moore, LB Cody Barton, G Kevin Zeitler, DE Dra’Mont Jones, S Xavier Woods, DT Sebastian Joseph, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, and a ton of cheap dudes.

Key Draft Picks:  QB Cam Ward, Edge Oluwafemi Oladejo, S Kevin Winston, WR Chimere Dike.

Summary:  I wish I could say that it pays so suck all of the time.  The Titans think that they have drafted their franchise quarterback, but I am just not so sure about that.  These days in college, sometimes its best to be a big fish in a small pond around a team that paid for their players in a bad football conference.  Don’t get me wrong.  Cam Ward “might” turn out, but he would not even have been drafted in my top four back in twenty four.  In saying all this, it’s hard for the Titans to get any worse from a results perspective as they did last year.  Choking away games was their montage and when the season got out of hand, this team just could not keep it close.   The good news for this team is that they signed a ton of talent, and decided to spend a bunch of money this year to try and protect their quarterback.  Brian Callahan will have to scheme to win a lot of tough games.  Now they just need someone to throw the ball to.  Who will that be?   Um…  Yeah.   I expect this defense to be a little above average, but we may be looking at the worst offense in football.

My Number:  5.83

Action: Lean over

Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -6.5

*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team

Thursday Free Play Video:

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NHL: Oilers/Panthers
MLB: Cardinals/Brewers
CFL: BC/Winnipeg

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Podcast 705 – 41 – 25 – With Joshua Nunn – College Football Group of 5 – AFC East & West Previews – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a MASSIVE show for you today!  Joshua Nunn @StepOnADuck1 is back to break down more pigskin!  First, Kiev talks about Sports Betting in Illinois.  What now?   Next, he gets into the US Open with a few thoughts.   Then, we break down the AFC East & AFC West to finish out our NFL previews.  Which teams will come out on top!?   After that, Josh comes on and the guys get right into the group of five conferences.   We start with the AAC and go all the way to the Sun Belt.  Plenty of Free Plays and big futures!  Kiev also throws out a UFC free play at the end of the show.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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DraftKings “King of the Course” U.S. Open Promo — Strategy + Picks

With $1,000,000 in bonus bets on the line, DraftKings is rolling out its “King of the Course” promo for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Here’s how it works — and more importantly, how you should approach it from a betting strategy standpoint.

How the Promo Works

Place an outright bet on any golfer to win the U.S. Open. If your selection records the most birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4 combined, you’ll earn a share of a $1,000,000 bonus bet pool — regardless of whether they win.

That’s right: your pick doesn’t need to win the tournament; they just need to rack up the most red numbers on the weekend.


Step 1: Pick a Player Who Will Make the Cut

This sounds obvious, but it’s the foundation of the entire promo. If your golfer misses the cut, they won’t be playing Rounds 3 and 4, and your entry is dead.

U.S. Open Cut Rules: Top 60 and ties after 36 holes. That’s a tighter cut line than most PGA Tour events (usually Top 65 and ties), making it even more crucial to target consistent players.


Step 2: Understand Oakmont’s Scoring Landscape

Oakmont is one of the toughest tests in golf, but even the most difficult venues have scoring windows. Let’s break down where birdies are most likely to come from this weekend.

Birdie Hotspots at Oakmont (Based on 2016 Data)

Par 5s

  • Hole 4 (611 yards): 98 birdies (Birdie or Better Rank: 2)
  • Hole 12 (632 yards): 77 birdies (Birdie or Better Rank: 4)
    Target stat: Par 5 scoring from 600 to 650 yards

Par 3s

  • Hole 3 (182 yards): Birdie or Better Rank: 3 (best chance)
  • Hole 6 (231 yards): Rank 7
  • Hole 8 (288 yards): Rank 18
  • Hole 16 (231 yards): Rank 15
    Insight: Birdies are rare on long Par 3s. Hole 3 is your best shot.

Par 4s

  • Hole 17 (313 yards): Rank 1
  • Hole 2 (340 yards): Rank 5
  • Hole 14 (358 yards): Rank 6
  • Hole 11 (370 yards): Rank 8
  • Hole 5 (382 yards): Rank 9
    Target stat: Par 4 scoring from 300 to 400 yards

Step 3: Key Stats to Target

To maximize your odds of winning, the key is finding players who are aggressive, can survive Oakmont’s difficulty, and go low when the putter heats up.

Core Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Birdies or Better Gained (on difficult scoring conditions)
  • Driving Distance (Oakmont stretches over 7,300 yards)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (on Poa annua greens with lightning speed)
  • Round 3 and Round 4 Birdies or Better %

Two Strategic Approaches

Strategy 1 — Maximize Birdie Opportunities

Focus on players who can take full advantage of the few scoring holes at Oakmont.

Key stat buckets:

  • Par 3 scoring from 175–200 yards
  • Par 4 scoring from 300–400 yards
  • Proximity from 75–100 yards
  • Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards

Ideal profile: Consistent ball-strikers with elite wedges and potential for hot putting rounds.

Strategy 2 — Separate on the Hard Holes

Find players who can steal birdies where most of the field is making pars or worse.

Key stat buckets:

  • Par 3 scoring from 225+ yards
  • Par 4 scoring from 450–500 yards
  • Proximity from 150–175 yards
  • Par 5 scoring from 600–650 yards

Ideal profile: High-ceiling players with volatility, distance, and the ability to post a 65 out of nowhere.


Other Factors to Consider

Spike Putting Rounds

If you have access to data on streaky putting performances, use it. You only need one or two hot putting rounds — especially on Saturday or Sunday — to win this contest.

Weather Edge

Monitor weekend tee times and forecasts. Morning waves with softer greens or less wind could create ideal birdie chances.


Betting Strategy: Chasing Value

At the top of the odds board, you’ll find the usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau. They’ll be popular picks in this contest, and rightfully so. These are elite players with a strong chance of posting the most birdies or better over the weekend.

But here’s the catch — the more people who bet on the same player, the smaller the share of that $1,000,000 prize pool you’ll end up with. That’s why we’re taking a different approach.

If your goal is simply to maximize your chances of winning something, then Scheffler or Rory might make sense. But if you’re looking to extract real value, the play is to dig a little deeper down the board.

Let’s reframe how we think about this contest: your $5 outright bet isn’t just a wager for a player to win the US Open — it’s a ticket into a side competition. And in that competition, the only thing that matters is birdies or better in Rounds 3 and 4.

So when analyzing the board, I’m not only asking, “Can this guy win the US Open?” I’m more interested in “Can he make enough birdies on the weekend to top the leaderboard in this contest?”

A player might blow up with a triple bogey and fall out of contention for the tournament, but that doesn’t matter here. We don’t care about bogeys. We care about raw scoring upside — birdie-making potential when it counts most.

The key is identifying players with:

  • High birdie or better rates
  • A strong chance to make the cut
  • Low ownership in this specific contest

That’s where the edge lies. We’re not trying to be right about who wins the US Open — we’re trying to be right about who racks up birdies on Saturday and Sunday when most of the field has gone home.


Value Players to Target – Patrick Gates

Sam Burns

Sam Burns enters the U.S. Open off a frustrating playoff loss to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, where his putter proved both a weapon and a weakness. After a stellar final round performance, Burns missed a short putt to win on the first playoff hole, then three-putted on the fourth, ultimately costing him the tournament.

Despite the disappointment, Burns has been playing consistently well. He’s finished T20 or better in five of his last six starts and is showing signs of a positive trend with his iron play. After going ten straight events without gaining strokes on approach, Burns has now done so in three consecutive starts—an encouraging sign as we head into a demanding week at Oakmont.

The strength of Burns’ game remains his putting, and when he finds a groove with the flat stick, he can rack up birdies in a hurry. He also has the distance off the tee to give himself manageable approaches on the longer holes. At the PGA Championship, Burns finished just four birdies off the top mark despite losing strokes on approach. If his recent improvements with the irons continue, he’s a legitimate contender in this DraftKings contest.

On top of that, Burns ranks 10th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season—a valuable stat considering this competition hinges on performance over the weekend.

Sepp Straka

Sepp Straka hasn’t yet found his form in the majors this year, but outside of those high-profile starts, he’s quietly put together a stellar 2025 season. With two wins under his belt — at The American Express and the Truist Championship (hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club) — Straka has shown he can contend and close.

He enters this week off a strong third-place finish at the Memorial, giving him a boost of momentum as he heads into Oakmont. Straka’s strength lies in his elite iron play. He may not overpower courses with distance, but he’s one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR — a key trait for positioning on Oakmont’s narrow and demanding fairways.

While his putter was inconsistent earlier in the year, he spiked in both of his wins, gaining +1.93 strokes putting at The American Express and +2.33 at the Truist. More importantly, he’s gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive events, a trend he hadn’t sustained since 2023. If the putter continues to cooperate, he’ll have plenty of birdie looks heading into the weekend.

What really stands out for this DraftKings promo is his weekend scoring ability. Straka ranks 5th in Round 3 scoring average and 18th in Round 4 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season — exactly what we’re targeting for this contest. If he makes the cut, his birdie-making potential on Saturday and Sunday could easily put him in contention for the top prize.

Harris English

Harris English has quietly been one of the most consistent birdie-makers in major championships this season. At the Masters, he recorded 18 birdies, tying for 4th in the field. He matched that total at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where his 18 birdies were tied for 2nd. That kind of scoring upside is exactly what you’re looking for in a contest focused on weekend birdie totals.

He arrives at Oakmont in solid form, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including a win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines — a long, demanding setup that shares some characteristics with Oakmont in terms of difficulty and shot-making requirements.

English’s game has been steady this season, with most of the week-to-week volatility coming on the greens. That said, when the putter clicks, he tends to contend. In the last five events where he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T18. That kind of spike potential makes him a strong candidate for this unique DraftKings contest. He may not need to contend for the trophy — just catch fire with the putter over the weekend.

Value Players to TargetJake Sikus

Keegan Bradley

Shines on difficult golf courses tee to green. Top 20 in BoB% on difficult courses last 36 rounds.

Sam Burns

Can get hot with the putter at any moment and drop them in from anywhere. Driver has been fantastic as of late.

Tommy Fleetwood

Was born for the US Open. This isn’t a market that requires him to win the golf tournament and has a ton of history of weekend surges at major championships.

Final Thoughts

This DraftKings promo is a fun and strategic twist on outright betting. It rewards bold picks and sharp weekend analysis. Focus on players with scoring upside, weekend reliability, and the firepower to light up Oakmont’s few scoring windows. If they get hot at the right time, you could take home a share of the million.

Wednesday Free Play Video:

Minnesota Twins players celebrating.

Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com

3 Free Selections:
NBA: Thunder/Pacers
WNBA: Wings/Mercury
MLB: Rangers/Twins

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AFC North 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting

The AFC North in 2024 was not the best division in football, it wasn’t the worst either. I would say that it was the weirdest. The Browns were supposed to be a playoff team, yet they instead threw us a curve and competed quite well for the worst team in NFL football. The Ravens lost some games that they shouldn’t have against the Chiefs and then the Raiders, then they rip off five wins in a row against teams like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay, just to lose to the Browns on Week eight. The Steelers had the hardest projected schedule that turned out to be not so bad at all, and the Bengals had chose to not care so much about defense. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC North, which I would call medium hard.  I feel that there is a big step up from a 3rd place schedule to a 4th place schedule. Let’s see how this pans out on paper.

Best Bets:  Steelers under 8.5 wins Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD)

Divisional Odds:   Ravens -145 – Bengals +230 – Steelers +550 – Browns +3000

1. Baltimore Ravens – 

Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -115

2024 Wins:  12

Pythagorean Wins:  12.18

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs @Buffalo, vs Houston, vs LA Rams

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses:  K Justin Tucker, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Brandon Stephens, LB Malik Harrison, T Josh Jones, CB Tre’Davious White, S Marcus Williams

Key additions: QB Cooper Rush, WR DeAndre Hopkins, CB Chidobe Awuzie and some special teams guys

Key Draft Picks: S Malaki Starks, Edge Mike Green, T Emery Jones Jr. and some dudes.

Summary:  Rinse repeat.  The Ravens were once again the best team in football, but alas, once again blew it in the Playoffs.  This is why home field advantage is such an attractive deal.  Well, that and a few other things that you need to go your way.  Last year’s addition of Derek Henry looked pretty genius as he seems to have a lot left in his gas tank.  This team is so perfect, yet so flawed when Lamar gets deep into the playoffs.  I am not going to sugar coat this.  HE HAS TO PLAY BETTER!  No turnovers, no sacks and just play the Ravens ballgame.  Once again this Baltimore team looks destined for regular season success.  I like their draft picks in Edge Mike Green and Safety Malaki Starks.   My only pre-season issues is that they shed a few cornerbacks that will hurt them against some of the better offenses in this league.  Will it matter as this team tends to get to the quarterback so quickly that the secondary doesn’t need to be all-stars?  Probably not, but my biggest problem with taking futures on the Ravens is not being clutch in the playoffs, and Lamar has certainly taking some risks running the football.  All in all, I expect the Ravens to once again win this division just to give it all back in the playoffs.

My Number:  12.59

Action – Lean over 11.5

Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7

2.  Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150

2024 Wins:  9

Pythagorean Wins:  9.42

Schedule: Medium  –  At large vs Jacksonville, @ Denver, vs Arizona

Schedule Last Year:  Medium

Key losses: G Alex Cappa, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, RT Trent Brown, CB Mike Hilston, S Von Bell

Key additions: DT TeDarrell Slaton, ILB Oren Burks, RB Samaje Perine, G/C Lucas Patrick

Key Draft Picks:  Edge Shemar Stewart, LB Demetrius Knight Jr, G Dylan Fairchild, LB Barret Carter

Summary:  The Cincinnati Bengals are really the complete opposite of the Green Bay Packers.  They are a team with a lot of talent with terrible coaching to match.  First, the front office decision making. Hey, I like Tee Higgens, but is this team is seriously valuing their second pass catcher over one of the best edge rushers in Tre Hendrickson?  Now he’s sitting out and we do not know what is going to happen.  I mean, it’s not like the 27th ranked defense in EPA needs a guy like that right?   Sure, maybe he decides to end his holdout at some point in September, but there is a chance that this incompetent front office trades him.  Look at what the Dallas Mavericks did with Luca.  Anyways, I do expect this offense to be, once again, very good, and I also expect the defense to be, once again, well quite bad.  Looking at the medium schedule, I think that their win total is a tad bit high.  Maybe things line up for this team, and Joe Burrow continues to be clutch. After all, they are the only ones in this division who can beat the Ravens. This team has been stuck at nine wins for the last few years. The biggest issue with the Bengals is not personnel.  It’s much more the coaching staff.  Coach Zac Taylor has made some dumbfounded decisions over the past four or five years.  I do not see it going any different. I could see the Bengals winning 8 – 10 games.  Leaving this baby alone.

My Number: 8.72

Action:  Lean under

Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 1

3.  Pittsburgh Steelers –

Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -130

2024 Wins: 10

Pythagorean Wins:  9.44

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Seattle, vs Indianapolis, @ LA Chargers

Schedule Last Year:  Medium Hard

Key losses:  QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, WR George Pickens, T Dan Moore, G/C James Daniels, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, OLB Elandon Roberts, WR Mike Williams, Edge Preston Smith, CB CJ Henderson, T Chukwuma Okafor

Key additions:  QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, LB Malik Harrison, CB Darius Slay, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Brandin Echols, S Juan Thornill, WR Robert Woods, RB Kenneth Gainwell, QB Skyler Thompson.

Key Draft Picks: DL Derrick Harmon, RB Kaleb Johnson, Edge Jack Sawyer, DL Yahya Black, QB Will Howard

Summary:  Like we said last year, and the year before, and the year before that.  When is the Steelers win total not 8.5?   The sharpest season win total play was to go under that, and how did that work out for us?  Not so good.  I am not falling for this again, but if I sure will not be betting the over.   What the Steelers are betting on is that Aaron Rogers is still good.  I am quite sure that I am not so sure of that. Last season, the NFL’s drama king ranked 25th in QBR playing on the Jets with Stacked receivers and running backs.   We have to go back to 2021 since Rogers was better than that.   Second option Mason Rudolph has been crapped on by this team for the past five seasons.  Now they decide to bring him back?  Say what you want about Russ and Justin, but as far as I can tell, the Steelers made their team worse at the most important position in football.  Pittsburgh has also revamped a bunch of positions, and if it wasn’t for TJ Watt, most of this team would be unrecognizable to the common football fan.  I am sure that the front office thinks that they got better by shedding WR George Pickens and adding DK Metcalf, but I just do not see a situation where DK isn’t mouthing off himself due to not getting the ball.   I do like Calvin Austin III a lot, and think he will benefit from some of these distractions.  Another position that took a hit was running back.  This team seems to like Jalen Warren, but I think his success was due to Najee taking the brunt of the opponents defense while he was more of a distract back.  Similar to the NY Giants, the Steelers will be great in the defensive trenches.  They seemed to focus in that area once again in this draft.  I do like the additions of Darius Slay, and some of the depth pieces that they have added to their secondary.  What I do not see is a lot of talent in the inside linebacker position, and that could be an issue when facing the stronger run teams in this league.  It is hard to make a prediction on this team minus the fact that Rookie quarterback Will Howard might just step on in when Rogers craps out.

My Number:  7.09

Action – Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD) – Steelers under 8.5 wins -130 – .5 stars

Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25

4.  Cleveland Browns –

Vegas win total: 4.5 Juiced to the over -160

2024 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  3.75

Schedule: Hard – At large @ Las Vegas, vs San Francisco, vs Tennessee

Schedule Last Year:  Medium

Key losses:  QB DeShawn Watson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, RT James Hudson, QB Jameis Winston, S Juan Thornhill, CB Michael Ford, T Jedrick Wills, C Nick Harris, RB Nick Chubb

Key additions:  QB Kenny Pickett, DT Maliek Collins, T Cornelius Lucas, OLB Joe Tryon, QB Joe Flacco, LB Devin Bush, G Teven Jenkins, S Rayshawn Jenkins

Key Draft Picks:  DL Mason Graham, LB Carson Schwesinger, RB Quinshon Judkins, TE Harold Fannin Jr, QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Dylan Sampson, QB Shedeur Sanders

Summary:  For the love of God. Everyone got the Browns wrong in the beginning of 2024.  My projected 9.47 wins turned into three, and with all due disrespect, they were lucky to get that.  The Browns are just a terrible organization, and just when you think that they made the best draft trade of the year, they go ahead and pick two running backs and two quarterbacks in later rounds.   I honestly do not understand why the would pick Dillon Gabriel in the third round when he wasn’t projected to be in the top 5 rounds, and then go ahead and pick Shedeur Sanders who teams have soured on in the 5th round.  It would have made more sense if these were flip-flopped, but here we are. The good news for this team is that there isn’t much room to be any worse than last year.  Ranking dead last in offensive EPA leaves no room to get much worse.  I do like the running back that they drafted in Quinshon Judkins, but this team still has to figure out the ever so crowded quarterback room.  Another issue is that this team doesn’t have much at the wide receiver position since they traded Amari Cooper.  The offensive line is poor, and they have not re-signed Tackle Jedrick Wills.  The Browns defense was the only bright spot from 2025 led by an expensive Myles Garrett.  The Brownies defense was a modest 18th in EPA per play.  The real bad news is that the Browns have the second hardest schedule in the league.  Part of that reason was getting the 49ers as their NFC at large game, as well as being net negative -7 days of rest.  Playing the Ravens, the Bengals and the Steelers all twice isn’t much fun either.  Can the Browns somehow find five or six wins this year?  Maybe.  Teams that were embarrassed tend to play better the following year, but do not bet the over on their season win total, because you might not have much fun in doing so.

My Number: 4.38

Action:  Lean Under

Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -6.5

2025 U.S. Open Preview & Picks

Ryan Fox (75-1) secured his second PGA TOUR victory of the season with a win at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic last month. He now joins Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Sepp Straka as the only players with multiple TOUR wins in 2025.

Our pick, Sam Burns (28-1), fell just short — losing in a playoff to Fox. That marks our sixth runner-up finish of the season.

Now, the spotlight shifts to the U.S. Open at historic Oakmont Country Club, where the drama has already begun before the first tee shot is even struck.

Pre-Tournament Storylines

Bryson’s Back for More

Bryson DeChambeau arrives at Oakmont with a legitimate chance to etch his name in the history books once again. The reigning U.S. Open champion captured his second title last year at Pinehurst No. 2, adding to his 2020 triumph at the punishing West Course at Winged Foot. Few players are built for the brutality of a U.S. Open setup quite like Bryson.

This season, he’s been a fixture on major leaderboards—finishing T5 at the Masters and runner-up at the PGA Championship. Now, he looks to join rare company, aiming to become the first player since Brooks Koepka (2017–2018) to go back-to-back at the U.S. Open.

If you’re curious to see how his game translated to Oakmont earlier this year, Bryson gave fans a glimpse during a “practice round” that was anything but casual. His power and precision are on full display:

Scheffler’s Next Summit

Scottie Scheffler is running out of mountains to climb—and yet, this week, another summit awaits. The Masters champion added a second major title to his résumé in dominant fashion, dismantling the field at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow with a five-shot victory.

If Scheffler wins at Oakmont, he’ll stand one title shy of the career grand slam—a feat only a handful have ever achieved. With Rory already checking off Augusta this year, don’t be shocked if Scottie follows suit by conquering Oakmont. He enters the U.S. Open having won three of his last four starts, and his form continues to border on mythical.

At this point, betting against him feels like betting against gravity.

The Last Slam: Mickelson’s Final Shot

This year marks Phil Mickelson’s final exemption into the U.S. Open—his last official shot at completing the elusive career Grand Slam. Despite his six runner-up finishes in this championship, the U.S. Open remains the one major that has slipped through his grasp. In his ten previous attempts at capturing the final leg, Mickelson has failed to finish better than a tie for 28th. Now, at 54, he returns to Oakmont with history—and heartbreak—on his shoulders.

McIlroy’s Mission at Oakmont

Rory McIlroy made history earlier this season by completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta National. Now, he turns his attention to the U.S. Open, where he’s aiming to tie Ben Hogan’s record of seven consecutive top-10 finishes. McIlroy has finished runner-up in each of the last two U.S. Opens, and his lone victory at this championship came in 2011 at Congressional (Blue Course).

He was part of the field the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont in 2016, though it was a forgettable week—he missed the cut.

McIlroy enters this week searching for better form after a disappointing T47 at the PGA Championship and a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open—his first early exit of the season.

Oakmont: Where Legends Are Tested

The 125th U.S. Open will mark a record 10th time Oakmont Country Club has hosted the championship (1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994, 2007, 2016, and now 2025), the most of any venue. It will also be Oakmont’s 18th USGA championship and the first since the 2021 U.S. Amateur. In August 2021, Oakmont was officially named a U.S. Open anchor site, securing future championships in 2034, 2042, and 2049. The club is also set to host the U.S. Women’s Open in 2028 and 2038, the Walker Cup in 2033, and the U.S. Women’s Amateur in 2046.

Across the nine U.S. Opens held at Oakmont, just eight players have managed to post a score lower than 280. During the most recent championship in 2016, only four players finished the week under par—a testament to the relentless challenge Oakmont presents even to the world’s best.

YearWinnerParWinning Score
2016Dustin Johnson70-4
2007Ángel Cabrera70+5
1994Ernie Els71-5
1983Larry Nelson71-4
1973Johnny Miller71-5
1962Jack Nicklaus72-1
1953Ben Hogan72-5
1935Sam Parks Jr.72+11
1927Tommy Armour72+13

The last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont Country Club came in 2016, when Dustin Johnson broke through for his first major championship. His victory wasn’t without drama—Johnson was controversially assessed a penalty after his ball moved on the fifth green, though officials didn’t confirm the ruling until after his round. Unfazed, he delivered a composed final-round 69 to win by three shots.

From a betting standpoint, Dustin Johnson entered the 2016 U.S. Open as the fourth choice on the odds board, trailing Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth in pre-tournament favoritism. Below is a chart highlighting the most popular futures wagers placed ahead of that championship.

us open 2016

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: June 12th – June 15th, 2025
  • Location: Oakmont, Pennsylvania, United States
  • Course: Oakmont Country Club
  • Course Type: Classical, Technical
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,372 Yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Perennial poa annua .084”
  • Fairways: Perennial poa annua/bentgrass .325”
  • Average Fairway Widths: 28 yards
  • Rough: Kentucky bluegrass/ryegrass/poa annua 5”
  • Bunkers: 168 (330,000 sq. ft.)
  • Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 8,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 14.5-15.0 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: TBA. Last year $21,500,000/ $4,300,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 750
  • Field: 156 Players
  • Cut: Top 60 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Playoff Format: Two-hole aggregate
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2016: 73.52 (+3.52), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 1 of 50
  • Historic Cut Line:
  • 2016: +6

Social Media:

Course Information:

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Henry Fownes (1903)
  • Renovations: Gill Hanse, ASCGA (2023)

Comparable Courses:

Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course) – 2020 U.S. Open

Why It Compares: Like Oakmont, Winged Foot is renowned for narrow fairways, thick rough, and some of the most complex greens in the world. The course demands elite ball-striking, strategic course management, and the ability to grind over 72 holes.

Course Traits: Firm, fast, tree-lined, brutal around the greens

2020 U.S. Open Results:

  • Winner: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
  • Only six players finished under par
  • DeChambeau was the only player to shoot under par in the final round

Oak Hill Country Club (East Course) – 2023 PGA Championship

Why It Compares: Oak Hill shares Oakmont’s northeastern roots and has undergone a restoration emphasizing classic Donald Ross elements — narrow fairways, penal bunkering, and elevated, contoured greens. It played extremely tough, with the winning score just under par.

Course Traits: Tight off the tee, long, demanding approach shots, fast green complexes

2023 PGA Championship Results:

  • Winner: Brooks Koepka (-9)
  • Just nine players finished under par
  • Highlighted the importance of total driving and elite iron play

Bethpage State Park (Black Course) – 2019 PGA Championship

Why It Compares: Bethpage Black is a long, punishing layout that mirrors Oakmont in its demand for total driving, resilience out of thick rough, and elite long iron play. Its narrow fairways, deep bunkers, and elevated greens reward disciplined tee-to-green control. The 2019 PGA Championship, held in May for the first time, played firm and fast, with wind and weather contributing to high scores outside of one dominant performance.

Course Traits: Long, thick rough, tree-lined, penal bunkering, rewards tee-to-green excellence

2019 PGA Championship Results:

  • Winner: Brooks Koepka (-8)
  • Koepka led wire-to-wire and was the only player double digits under par at any point
  • Only six players finished under par
  • The course played brutally tough for the field, especially on the weekend, where Koepka shot 70-74 but held on for the win

Torrey Pines (South Course)

While Torrey Pines lacks some of the architectural pedigree and historical gravitas of Oakmont, it still offers a comparable test in several key areas. The South Course stretches beyond 7,700 yards and features dense rough, narrow landing areas, and a premium on both length and accuracy off the tee — a profile that fits the U.S. Open mold to a tee.

Why It Compares: Though more modern in design and layout, Torrey Pines South is one of the few courses on TOUR that truly tests total driving, long-iron proximity, and scrambling from thick rough. Like Oakmont, it’s a venue where even par is often a good score depending on conditions.

Course Traits:

  • Long (7,765 yards from the tips)
  • Thick kikuyu rough
  • Fast, multi-tiered poa annua greens
  • Coastal winds can play a role
  • Penal around the greens
2025 Genesis Invitational (Torrey Pines South)
  • Context: This year’s Genesis was moved from Riviera to Torrey South due to wildfires. Though setup slightly easier than a U.S. Open, the course still played firm and fast with penal rough.
  • Winner: Ludvig Åberg (-12)
  • Key Stats:
    • Only 31 players finished the week under par
    • Driving accuracy and strokes gained: approach were top correlators
    • Scoring Average well over par for a typical TOUR event
2021 U.S. Open (Torrey Pines South)
  • Winner: Jon Rahm (-6)
  • Notable Stats:
    • Just nine players finished under par
    • The cut came at +4, and only 26 of 156 players broke par for even a single round
    • Rahm won with back-to-back birdies on 17 and 18, highlighting how few scoring chances exist late in the round
  • How It Played:
    • Extremely penal off the tee — driving accuracy was only 55%
    • Putting on the bumpy poa annua greens was a challenge all week
    • Like Oakmont, rewarded patience, precision, and mental toughness

Comparable Location (Oakmont, Pennsylvania, United States):

  • Philadelphia Cricket Club (Wissahickon) – Flourtown, Pennsylvania – 2025 Truist Championship
  • Merion Golf Club (East Course) – Ardmore, Pennsylvania – 2013 U.S. Open

Designer Link (Gill Hanse Renovation):

  • Colonial Country Club – Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner Renovation (2023) – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Los Angeles Country Club – Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner and Geoff Shackelford Renovation (2010) – 2023 U.S. Open
  • Southern Hills Country Club – Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner Renovation (2019) – 2022 PGA Championship
  • The Country Club – Gil Hanse Renovation (2013, 19) – 2022 U.S. Open
  • Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course) – Gil Hanse Renovation (2016-18) – 2020 U.S. Open
  • TPC Boston – Gil Hanse Renovation (2002) – 2020 Northern Trust, 2018-2020 Deutsche Bank / Dell Technologies Championship
  • Aronimink Golf Club – Gil Hanse Renovation (2016-17) – 2018 BMW Championship
  • Ridgewood Country Club – Gil Hanse Renovation (2014) – 2018, 2014, 2010 The Barclays / Northern Trust

Comparable Yardage (7,372 Yards):

  • Detroit Golf Club – 7,370 Yards – Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • Black Desert Resort – 7,371 Yards -Black Desert Championship
  • TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North) – 7,389 Yards – RBC Canadian Open

Comparable Greens (Perennial poa annua .084”):

  • Pebble Beach Golf Links – Poa annua .125” – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • The Riviera Country Club – Poa annua .100” – The Genesis Invitational

Comparable Average Green Size (8,500 sq. ft.):

  • Plantation Course at Kapalua – 8,722 sq. ft – The Sentry

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Thursday, June 12th, 2025
    • USA Network – 6:00 AM – 5:00 PM
    • Peacock – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, June 13th, 2025
    • Peacock – 6:30 AM – 1:00 PM
    • NBC – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM
    • Peacock – 7:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, June 14th, 2025
    • USA Network – 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM
    • NBC – 12:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, June 15th, 2025
    • USA Network – 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM
    • NBC – 12:00 PM – 7:00 PM

Weather:

  • Thursday: Hazy sunshine for most of the day and low percentages for precipitation. Low: 63°F, High: 84°F. Winds: 4-8 mph, gusting at 17 mph.
  • Friday: Hazy and humid conditions, with little wind. Low: 66°F, High: 83°F. Winds: 2-4 mph, gusting at 9 mph.
  • Saturday: Sunny periods with a shower in places that could become storms. Low: 65°F, High: 81°F. Winds: 6-10 mph, gusting at 21 mph.
  • Sunday: Cloudy and humid to start the day, including potential for morning thunderstorms. Rain will stay for the afternoon. Low: 63°F, High: 80°F. Winds: 4-8 mph, gusting at 13 mph.

Course/ Tournament History:

The United States Open Championship, commonly known as the U.S. Open, is the annual open national championship of golf in the United States and is the third of the four major championships in professional golf. First played in 1895 at Newport Country Club in Rhode Island, the inaugural event was a single-day, 36-hole competition held on a nine-hole course. Since then, the tournament has evolved into one of the most prestigious and challenging events in the sport. Originally dominated by British professionals, American golfers soon rose to prominence, with John J. McDermott becoming the first American-born champion in 1911. The U.S. Open is known for its demanding course setups—narrow fairways, thick rough, and lightning-fast greens—all designed to test every aspect of a player’s game. Historically, ties after 72 holes were settled with an 18-hole playoff, but in 2018, the USGA adopted a two-hole aggregate playoff, followed by sudden death if necessary. Winning the U.S. Open carries immense prestige along with tangible benefits, including a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, invitations to the other three majors for the next five years, and a ten-year exemption into the U.S. Open itself.

Oakmont Country Club, located in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, stands as one of the most storied and demanding venues in American golf. Founded in 1903 by Pittsburgh steel magnate Henry C. Fownes, the course was created to be an unrelenting test of skill, and it has remained true to that vision for more than a century. With its lightning-fast greens, cavernous bunkers, and thick rough, Oakmont is renowned as one of the toughest challenges in the game.

Constructed by hand with the help of 150 laborers and a team of horses, Oakmont officially opened in 1904 as an “inland links” course—designed to echo the characteristics of the great British links layouts despite its inland setting. Originally playing to a par of 80, the course has evolved, but the spirit of Fownes’ design remains intact.

Oakmont’s national profile grew under Henry’s son, William C. Fownes Jr., a decorated amateur who brought the 1919 U.S. Amateur to the club, launching its legacy as a championship venue. Since then, Oakmont has hosted 20 national championships, including a record nine U.S. Opens. The club has witnessed countless iconic moments: Ben Hogan’s comeback victory in 1953, Johnny Miller’s historic final-round 63 in 1973, and Dustin Johnson’s long-awaited major breakthrough in 2016.

Though tree plantings in the 1950s briefly altered its character, a major restoration in the early 2000s removed over 10,000 trees, returning Oakmont to its original open and punishing layout. Today, it remains one of the purest tests in championship golf and a fixture on the USGA’s future schedule, with multiple U.S. Opens and other major tournaments already slated for the decades ahead.

In 2023, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner led a significant renovation in preparation for Oakmont’s historic 10th U.S. Open. Their goal was to return the course even closer to Fownes’ original vision. Nearly 150 yards were added through new tees—such as on holes 3 and 11—bringing the championship layout to 7,372 yards and a par of 70. More impactful than distance, however, was the restoration of the greens. Using pre-1947 photos, Hanse and Wagner recaptured the squared-off edges and expanded putting surfaces by roughly 15%, reintroducing classic hole locations and reconnecting them to dramatically rebuilt bunkers.

Several holes received surgical updates. On Hole 2, a previously narrow fairway was widened, with bunkers repositioned to reward strategic tee shots. Hole 3 gained nearly 40 yards and an added “pew” in the infamous bunker, while a crescent-shaped bunker design tightened the landing zone. Hole 7 underwent the most dramatic redesign, restoring a long-lost cross-bunker and creating an alternate fairway. On Hole 13, the green was reshaped to make a subtle ridge playable again, creating a thrilling new pin location in the back-left. At the 17th, fairway bunkers were consolidated, and a previously safe bailout area was replaced with long fescue, ramping up the challenge.

These changes enhance Oakmont’s brutal beauty while honoring its legacy. As the club prepares to host more major championships—including U.S. Opens in 2025, 2033, 2042, and 2049—it remains a symbol of timeless championship golf.

Previous Tournament Venues:

Below is a comprehensive list of U.S. Open venues dating back to the tournament’s inception in 1895. While the championship rotates annually, several distinguished courses have earned the honor of hosting multiple times throughout its storied history.

YearVenueLocation
2025Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
2024Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)Pinehurst, North Carolina
2023Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)Los Angeles, California
2022The Country ClubBrookline, Massachusetts
2021Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)San Diego, California
2020Winged Foot Golf ClubMamaroneck, New York
2019Pebble Beach Golf LinksPebble Beach, California
2018Shinnecock Hills Golf ClubSouthampton, New York
2017Erin HillsErin, Wisconsin
2016Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
2015Chambers Bay Golf CourseUniversity Place, Washington
2014Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)Pinehurst, North Carolina
2013Merion Golf ClubArdmore, Pennsylvania
2012Olympic ClubSan Francisco, California
2011Congressional Country ClubBethesda, Maryland
2010Pebble Beach Golf LinksPebble Beach, California
2009Bethpage State Park (Black Course)Farmingdale, New York
2008Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)San Diego, California
2007Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
2006Winged Foot Golf ClubMamaroneck, New York
2005Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)Pinehurst, North Carolina
2004Shinnecock Hills Golf ClubSouthampton, New York
2003Olympia Fields Country ClubOlympia Fields, Illinois
2002Bethpage State Park (Black Course)Farmingdale, New York
2001Southern Hills Country ClubTulsa, Oklahoma
2000Pebble Beach Golf LinksPebble Beach, California
1999Pinehurst Resort (No. 2 Course)Pinehurst, North Carolina
1998Olympic ClubSan Francisco, California
1997Congressional Country ClubBethesda, Maryland
1996Oakland Hills Country ClubBloomfield Hills, Michigan
1995Shinnecock Hills Golf ClubSouthampton, New York
1994Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1993Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1992Pebble Beach Golf LinksPebble Beach, California
1991Hazeltine National Golf ClubChaska, Minnesota
1990Medinah Country ClubMedinah, Illinois
1989Oak Hill Country ClubRochester, New York
1988The Country ClubBrookline, Massachusetts
1987Olympic ClubSan Francisco, California
1986Shinnecock Hills Golf ClubSouthampton, New York
1985Oakland Hills Country ClubBloomfield Hills, Michigan
1984Winged Foot Golf ClubMamaroneck, New York
1983Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1982Pebble Beach Golf LinksPebble Beach, California
1981Merion Golf ClubArdmore, Pennsylvania
1980Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1979Inverness ClubToledo, Ohio
1978Cherry Hills Country ClubEnglewood, Colorado
1977Southern Hills Country ClubTulsa, Oklahoma
1976Atlanta Athletic ClubDuluth, Georgia
1975Medinah Country ClubMedinah, Illinois
1974Winged Foot Golf ClubMamaroneck, New York
1973Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1972Pebble Beach Golf LinksPebble Beach, California
1971Merion Golf ClubArdmore, Pennsylvania
1970Hazeltine National Golf ClubChaska, Minnesota
1969Champions Golf ClubHouston, Texas
1968Oak Hill Country ClubRochester, New York
1967Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1966Olympic ClubSan Francisco, California
1965Bellerive Country ClubTown and Country, Missouri
1964Congressional Country ClubBethesda, Maryland
1963The Country ClubBrookline, Massachusetts
1962Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1961Oakland Hills Country ClubBloomfield Hills, Michigan
1960Cherry Hills Country ClubEnglewood, Colorado
1959Winged Foot Golf ClubMamaroneck, New York
1958Southern Hills Country ClubTulsa, Oklahoma
1957Inverness ClubToledo, Ohio
1956Oak Hill Country ClubRochester, New York
1955Olympic ClubSan Francisco, California
1954Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1953Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1952Northwood ClubDallas, Texas
1951Oakland Hills Country ClubBloomfield Hills, Michigan
1950Merion Golf ClubArdmore, Pennsylvania
1949Medinah Country ClubMedinah, Illinois
1948Riviera Country ClubPacific Palisades, California
1947St. Louis Country ClubLadue, Missouri
1946Canterbury Golf ClubBeachwood, Ohio
1945No tournament (World War II)
1944No tournament (World War II)
1943No tournament (World War II)
1942No tournament (World War II)
1941Colonial Country ClubFort Worth, Texas
1940Canterbury Golf ClubBeachwood, Ohio
1939Philadelphia Country ClubGladwyne, Pennsylvania
1938Cherry Hills Country ClubEnglewood, Colorado
1937Oakland Hills Country ClubBloomfield Hills, Michigan
1936Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1935Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1934Merion Golf ClubArdmore, Pennsylvania
1933North Shore Country ClubGlenview, Illinois
1932Fresh Meadow Country ClubFlushing, New York
1931Inverness ClubToledo, Ohio
1930Interlachen Country ClubEdina, Minnesota
1929Winged Foot Golf ClubMamaroneck, New York
1928Olympia Fields Country ClubOlympia Fields, Illinois
1927Oakmont Country ClubOakmont, Pennsylvania
1926Scioto Country ClubColumbus, Ohio
1925Worcester Country ClubWorcester, Massachusetts
1924Oakland Hills Country ClubBloomfield Hills, Michigan
1923Inwood Country ClubInwood, New York
1922Skokie Country ClubGlencoe, Illinois
1921Columbia Country ClubChevy Chase, Maryland
1920Inverness ClubToledo, Ohio
1919Brae Burn Country ClubWest Newton, Massachusetts
1918No tournament (World War I)
1917No tournament (World War I)
1916Minikahda ClubMinneapolis, Minnesota
1915Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1914Midlothian Country ClubMidlothian, Illinois
1913The Country ClubBrookline, Massachusetts
1912Country Club of BuffaloBuffalo, New York
1911Chicago Golf ClubWheaton, Illinois
1910Philadelphia Cricket ClubPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania
1909Englewood Golf ClubEnglewood, New Jersey
1908Myopia Hunt ClubSouth Hamilton, Massachusetts
1907Philadelphia Cricket ClubPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania
1906Onwentsia ClubLake Forest, Illinois
1905Myopia Hunt ClubSouth Hamilton, Massachusetts
1904Glen View ClubGolf, Illinois
1903Baltusrol Golf ClubSpringfield, New Jersey
1902Garden City Golf ClubGarden City, New York
1901Myopia Hunt ClubSouth Hamilton, Massachusetts
1900Chicago Golf ClubWheaton,
1899Baltimore (Roland Park Course)Baltimore, Maryland
1898Myopia Hunt ClubSouth Hamilton, Massachusetts
1897ChicagoWheaton, Illinois
1896Shinnecock HillsShinnecock Hills, New York
1895NewportNewport, Rhode Island

Previous Tournament Names:

DurationTournament Name
1895-1916, 1919-1941, 1946-PresentU.S. Open

Tournament Records:

  • Most Wins at Event (U.S. Open):
    • 4 – Willie Anderson 1901, 1903–1905; Bobby Jones 1923, 1926, 1929–30; Ben Hogan 1948, 1950–51, 1953; Jack Nicklaus 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980
  • 72-Hole Record (U.S. Open):
    • 268, Rory McIlroy (2011 at Congressional CC)

  • 18-Hole Record (U.S. Open):
    • 62, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele (Round 1, 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club)
  • Largest Margin of Victory:
    • 15 Strokes – Tiger Woods (Pebble Beach, 2000)
  • Youngest Winner:
    • 19 Years Old, John J. McDermott (1911)
  • Oldest Winner:
    • 45 Years Old, Hale Irwin (1990)

Course Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Oakmont Country Club):
    • 272 (-16), Dustin Johnson (2016)

  • 18-Hole Record (Oakmont Country Club):
    • 63, Johnny Miller (Round 4, 1973)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Oakmont Country Club, nestled along the Allegheny River just northeast of Pittsburgh, stands as a stern and unyielding monument to championship golf. Designed in 1903 by steel magnate Henry Fownes, the course is widely regarded as one of the most demanding tests in the game, by design and not by accident.

The layout unfolds across a rolling, open expanse of western Pennsylvania terrain with no water hazards and almost no trees, offering a raw and unfiltered examination of a player’s skill, discipline, and mental fortitude. Yet what Oakmont lacks in natural ornamentation, it more than compensates for in sheer architectural audacity.

At the heart of Oakmont’s relentless challenge are its lightning-fast greens, arguably the fastest in major championship golf. Heavily sloped, firm, and treacherously quick, they place an extraordinary premium on precise approach play and razor-sharp putting. Many of these greens are perched or crowned, often repelling anything less than the most precisely judged shot.

Bunkering at Oakmont is another signature element. The course is flanked by over 200 bunkers, many of them deep, cavernous, and brutal in nature. Chief among them is the infamous Church Pews bunker, a massive hazard that separates the third and fourth fairways with 13 distinctive grassy ridges. Its visual intimidation is matched only by its strategic influence.

The routing is a masterclass in subtle difficulty. Holes ebb and flow across the property with very little respite. The par 70 layout stretches to over 7,300 yards, demanding accuracy and courage from the first tee to the final green. It begins with a relatively gentle par four, only to quickly escalate in intensity with stern doglegs, long par fours, and narrow fairways that reward placement over power.

Each nine has its own character.
The front nine is varied and tactical, highlighted by the long par three eighth and the brutish uphill ninth, converted from a par five to a par four for championship play.
The back nine is merciless, with a closing stretch that has decided numerous U.S. Opens. The par three sixteenth is long and exposed, the seventeenth invites boldness off the tee, and the eighteenth, a long uphill par four, is a true finishing gauntlet.

Thanks to recent restorations by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, Oakmont has recaptured much of its original form. Greens have been expanded to their historic edges, bunkers restructured to match early photographs, and fairways widened in strategic zones. These changes have not softened Oakmont’s bite, they have simply made it truer to its architectural roots.

In its essence, Oakmont is pure golf, a course that exposes weakness, rewards courage, and rarely forgives a moment’s lapse in concentration. For over a century, it has been a proving ground for champions and a crucible for the game’s finest talents.

Oakmont’s quartet of par threes presents a formidable examination of precision and control. Ranging from 182 to a daunting 289 yards, three of the four stretch beyond the 200-yard mark, demanding long irons or even fairway metals into narrow, well-defended targets. During the 2016 U.S. Open, each par three played over par with one exception. No. 13, the shortest of the set at just under 200 yards, yielded a scoring average of 2.99. It was the only brief moment of relative respite in an otherwise unforgiving set of one-shot holes.

Hole 6 | Par 3 | 200 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.14 (Difficulty Rank – 11)

The first of Oakmont’s par 3s requires precision. Aiming for the center of the green is key, as a miss left or right significantly reduces the chances of saving par.

Hole 8 | Par 3 | 289 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.30 (Difficulty Rank – 8)

One of the longest par 3s in the world, the 8th green is more receptive to a right-to-left ball flight. Par is an excellent score here. In U.S. Open history, this hole has twice held the distinction of being the longest par three ever played in the event, stretching to 299 yards during the final round in 2016 and reaching an even 300 yards in the final round in 2007.

Hole 13 | Par 3 | 182 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 2.99 (Difficulty Rank – 16)

The par 3 13th requires a perfect short-to-mid iron into its famously undulating green. A miss long or right makes saving par nearly impossible. Staying below the hole is essential for any realistic birdie or par chance.

Hole 16 | Par 3 | 236 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.24 (Difficulty Rank – 9)

A long iron or fairway wood is needed to reach this large green, which features a severe false front. The trench bunker along the left side makes this par 3 a formidable challenge.

Oakmont Country Club presents a formidable collection of twelve par fours, each sculpted to test a player’s full command of the game. The majority of these holes, four in total, fall within the demanding 450-to-500-yard range. The shortest of the group, the 17th, measures a mere 312 yards, offering a tempting risk-reward opportunity late in the round. In contrast, the 15th stands as the longest par four on the course at a stern 507 yards, requiring a pair of well-executed shots to reach the green in regulation. During the 2016 U.S. Open, the first hole emerged as the most difficult, playing to an average of 4.45 strokes, while the 17th proved the most forgiving, yielding a scoring average of 3.89.

Hole 1 | Par 4 | 289 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.45 (Difficulty Rank – 1)

One of the most challenging opening holes in golf, this par 4 demands a precise tee shot followed by a mid-iron approach into a green that slopes away from the player. Walking away with a par here is an excellent start.

Hole 3 | Par 4 | 462 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.32 (Difficulty Rank – 7)

The famous Church Pews bunker on the left, cavernous bunkers on the right, and an elevated green that requires a high, soft approach with controlled spin make this one of the most difficult par 4s in the country.

Hole 9 | Par 4 | 472 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.43 (Difficulty Rank – 2)

A blind tee shot, an infamous ditch looming on the left, and bunkers lining the right, make this one of Oakmont’s most demanding holes. Framed by the historic clubhouse and connected to the practice green, the 9th features one of the most iconic green complexes in the game.

Hole 15 | Par 4 | 507 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.39 (Difficulty Rank – 3)

This long par 4 features a blind tee shot to a fairway that slopes left to right. A mid-to-long iron approach is typically required into a large, sloping green. A par here can provide valuable momentum heading into the final stretch.

Hole 17 | Par 4 | 312 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 3.89 (Difficulty Rank – 18)

Several strategies can be used to play this hole, but each requires a well-executed shot at some point to secure a par or birdie.

Hole 18 | Par 4 | 502 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.32 (Difficulty Rank – 6)

One of the best finishing holes in golf, Oakmont’s 18th hole demands four well-played shots to make par. A memorable finish awaits those who execute well.

Oakmont Country Club boasts two imposing par fives, the fourth and twelfth holes, each extending over 600 yards. In the 2016 U.S. Open, the fourth hole stood out by playing just under par with a scoring average of 4.97, while the twelfth demanded greater precision and patience, posting a scoring average of 5.14.

Hole 4 | Par 5 | 611 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 4.97 (Difficulty Rank – 17)

Playing along the opposite side of the Church Pews, the left side of this par 5 is daunting, while bunkers and thick rough on the right add to the challenge. Longer hitters can reach the green in two, but a committed line on the blind second shot is necessary to create an eagle opportunity.

Hole 12 | Par 5 | 632 Yards | 2016 Stroke Average: 5.14 (Difficulty Rank – 10)

The final par 5 at Oakmont demands three well-executed shots. Bunkers and ditches along both sides require strategic play. The green slopes severely from front to back, making approach shots difficult to hold.

HoleYardsPar HoleYardsPar
14884 104614
23464 114004
34624 126325
46115 131823
54084 143794
62003 155074
74854 162363
82893 173124
94724 185024
OUT3,76135 IN3,61135
  TOTAL7,37270

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 9, 17, 18

Key Statistics:

The U.S. Open takes place at Oakmont Country Club. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

StatisticsPGA Tour AverageOakmont Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)283.83N/A
Driving Accuracy62%55%
GIR Percentage66%56%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)29.17N/A
Scrambling Percentage58%40%
Avg 3 Putts / Round0.551.21

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

  • Oakmont is widely regarded as one of the most demanding tee-to-green tests in championship golf. Players must be in total control of their long game to contend. With punishing rough, strategic bunkering, and sloped greens, precision and consistency from the tee through approach play are paramount.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Keegan Bradley
      • Tommy Fleetwood
      • Tyrrell Hatton
      • Daniel Berger
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Joaquin Niemann
      • Shane Lowry
      • Brooks Koepka

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Driving is a premium at Oakmont. Narrow fairways lined with thick rough and strategically placed bunkers demand both distance and accuracy.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Bryson DeCheambeau
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Jordan L Smith
      • Niklas Norgaard Moller
      • Jordan Spieth
      • Brooks Koepka
      • Patrick Cantlay
      • Daniel Berger
      • Rasmus Hojgaard
      • Corey Conners

Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Oakmont’s greens are heavily contoured and well-protected. Gaining on approach is a critical path to scoring or even saving pars.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Sepp Straka
      • Shane Lowry
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Bud Cauley
      • Viktor Hovland
      • Patrick Cantlay
      • Daniel Berger
      • Collin Morikawa
      • John Peterson

Strokes Gained: Around the Green – Rough Length: Long

  • Oakmont’s rough is among the thickest and most penal on the PGA TOUR rotation. With narrow fairways and firm, fast greens, missing in regulation is inevitable — even for elite ball-strikers. This places an added emphasis on short game performance, especially from difficult lies around the green. The greens are heavily contoured and sloped, making delicate touch and precise trajectory control crucial. Players who can consistently save par from gnarly rough or tight lies will have a significant edge.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Sungjae Im
      • Russell Henley
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Cameron Smith
      • Daniel Berger
      • Davis Riley
      • Adam Scott
      • Mackenzie Hughes
      • Min Woo Lee

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua) – Green Speed: Lightning

  • Oakmont’s greens are legendary—lightning fast Poa annua cut to .084” and rolling between 14’5” and 14’9” on the Stimpmeter. For reference, the PGA Championship ran at 12’ and Augusta at 13’–14’.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Jon Rahm
      • Marc Leishman
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Aaron Rai
      • Doug Ghim
      • Brooks Koepka
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Wyndham Clark
      • Akshay Bhatia
      • Lucas Glover

3-Putt Avoidance

  • Three-putting is a real threat on Oakmont’s massive, undulating surfaces. In 2016, even the best struggled to lag putt effectively.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Cameron Smith
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Harris English
      • Jose Luis Ballester Barrio
      • Carlos Ortiz
      • J.T. Poston
      • Justin Thomas
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Sam Burns
      • Scottie Scheffler

Strokes Gained: Total – Scoring Relative to Par: Difficult

  • Oakmont consistently plays as one of the hardest courses in golf. Players who thrive in difficult scoring conditions are historically more reliable in U.S. Opens.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Corey Conners
      • Shane Lowry
      • Rory McIlroy
      • Russell Henley
      • Jon Rahm
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Ryan Fox

Driving Distance Gained

  • While accuracy is vital, carrying hazards and setting up shorter irons is a significant advantage on some of Oakmont’s longer holes.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Niklas Norgaard Moller
      • Rory McIlroy
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Min Woo Lee
      • Ludvig Åberg
      • Trevor Cone
      • Jon Rahm
      • Jose Luis Ballester Barrio
      • Chris Gotterup

Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards

  • Two of Oakmont’s Par 3s stretch beyond 225 yards. In both 2007 and 2016, Hole No. 8 even approached 300 yards during tournament play.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Jordan L Smith
      • Eric Cole
      • Thorbjorn Olesen
      • Daniel Berger
      • Matt McCarty
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Denny McCarthy
      • Samuel Stevens
      • James Hahn
      • Mark Hubbard

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards

  • Five of Oakmont’s twelve Par 4s fall within the 450–500 yard range.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Shane Lowry
      • Matthew Jordan
      • Sam Burns
      • Ludvig Aberg
      • Tommy Fleetwood
      • Justin Lower
      • Max Greyserman
      • Patrick Reed

Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 Yards

  • Both of Oakmont’s Par 5s fall within the 600-650 yard range.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Rory McIlroy
      • Andrew Novak
      • Jon Rahm
      • Jordan L Smith
      • Byeong Hun An
      • Marc Leishman
      • Jose Luis Ballester Barrio
      • Niklas Norgaard Moller
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Aaron Rai

Bogey Avoidance Gained

  • Oakmont’s layout demands discipline. Avoiding bogeys—and worse—is the formula for staying in contention.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Guido Migliozzi
      • Joaquin Niemann
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Rory McIlroy
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Corey Conners
      • Ben Griffin
      • Patrick Cantlay

Sand Saves Gained

  • Bunkers are a defining feature of Oakmont. With nearly 170 of them, proficient sand play is essential.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Tom Hoge
      • Patrick Reed
      • Matt Wallace
      • Tyrrell Hatton
      • J.T. Poston
      • James Hahn
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Michael Kim
      • Brian Harman
      • Denny McCarthy

Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards

  • A high percentage of second shots—especially on long Par 4s—will come from 175-200 yard range.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Viktor Hovland
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Patrick Reed
      • Brooks Koepka
      • Bud Cauley
      • Patrick Cantlay
      • Benjamin James
      • Joaquin Niemann
      • Davis Thompson
      • Emiliano Grillo

Major History

  • Success in major championships, particularly the U.S. Open, is often less about pure talent and more about patience, precision, and resilience—qualities that Oakmont demands in spades. Players who have historically performed well in major championships are more likely to rise to the occasion at a venue that offers no room for error. The ability to navigate firm fairways, punishing rough, and lightning-fast greens under immense pressure is a proven skillset, not a fluke.
    • Leaders in this category:
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Rory McIlroy
      • Jon Rahm
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Brooks Koepka
      • Viktor Hovland
      • Bryson DeChambeau
      • Shane Lowry
      • Tommy Fleetwood

Comparable Courses

  • When examining potential player success at Oakmont, it’s essential to factor in results at similar venues. Oakmont’s DNA is shared with other classical layouts known for narrow fairways, penal rough, and fast Poa annua greens.
    • Leaders in this category:
      • Rory McIlroy
      • Jon Rahm
      • Dustin Johnson
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Patrick Reed
      • Tony Finau
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Adam Scott
      • Viktor Hovland
      • Jason Day
      • Bryson DeCheambeau

The Field:

The 2025 U.S. Open will welcome a field of 156 players, including 49 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking. The only absence among the elite is Billy Horschel, who will miss the U.S. Open as he recovers from recent surgery on his right hip.

Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

  • Winners of the U.S. Open for the last ten years
  • Winner and runner-up from the previous year’s U.S. Amateur and winners of the previous year’s U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Mid-Amateur
  • The runner-up from the U.S. Amateur, the winner of the U.S. Junior Amateur, and U.S. Mid-Amateur must remain an amateur.
  • The winner of the U.S. Amateur, however, may turn professional after winning the U.S. Amateur and retain his eligibility.
  • Winner of the previous year’s Amateur Championship
  • The previous year’s Mark H. McCormack Medal winner for the top-ranked amateur golfer in the world
  • Winners of each of Masters Tournament, Open Championship and PGA Championship for the last five years
  • Winners of the last three Players Championships
  • Winner of the current year’s BMW PGA Championship
  • Winner of the last U.S. Senior Open
  • Players who win multiple U.S. PGA Tour events during the time between tournaments, provided the tournaments each offer 500 or more points to the winner, and are not opposite-field events.
  • In the year after the Olympic golf tournament, the reigning men’s gold medalist
  • Top 10 finishers and ties from the previous year’s U.S. Open
  • Players who qualified for the previous year’s Tour Championship
  • The top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) as of two weeks before the start of the tournament
  • The top 60 in the OWGR as of the tournament date
  • The top player in the PGA Tour second-tier developmental series points, based on combined points from the Regular Season and Finals, from the previous season (starting in 2023)
  • Special exemptions selected by the USGA
  • All remaining spots after the second top 60 OWGR cutoff date filled by alternates from qualifying tournaments.

Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

  • Bryson DeChambeau (2024, 2020), Wyndham Clark (2023), Matthew Fitzpatrick (2022), Jon Rahm (2021), Gary Woodland (2019), Brooks Koepka (2018, 2017), Dustin Johnson (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Justin Rose (2013), Rory McIlroy (2011), Lucas Glover (2009)

Previous Winners in the Field (Course):

  • Dustin Johnson (2016)

Debutants in the Field:

  • Alistair Docherty, Alvaro Ortiz, Benjamin Griffin, Bryan Lee, Cameron Tankersley, Chandler Blanchet, Emilio Gonzalez, Evan Beck, Frankie Harris, Frederic LaCroix, George Duangmanee, George Kneiser, Grant Haefner, Harrison Ott, Jackson Koivun, Jacob Bridgeman, Jacques Kruyswijk, James Nicholas, Joakim Lagergren, Joey Herrera, Johnny Keefer, Jose Luis Ballester, Justin Hastings, Kevin Velo, Lance Simpson, Laurie Canter, Mason Howell, Matt Vogt, Michael La Sasso, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Kent, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Riley Lewis, Ryan McCormick, Scott Vincent, Trent Phillips, Trevor Cone, Trevor Gutschewski, Tyler Weaver, Will Chandler, Yuta Sugiura, Zach Bauchou, Zachery Pollo

Amateurs in the Field:

  • Evan Beck, Trevor Gutschewski, Frankie Harris, Justin Hastings, Mason Howell, Ben James, Noah Kent, Jackson Koivun, Michael La Sasso, Bryan Lee, Zachary Pollo, Lance Simpson, Cameron Tankersley, Matt Vogt, Tyler Weaver

Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

  • OUT Sahith Theegala -> IN Matthew Jordan (alternate)
  • IN Eric Cole (alternate)
  • IN Ryan Fox (via OWGR)
  • IN Doug Ghim (alternate)
  • IN Chase Johnson (alternate)
  • IN Takumi Kanaya (alternate)
  • IN Riki Kawamoto (alternate)

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the top players in the field for this year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, ranked by current betting odds (via DraftKings). The table below details each player’s five most recent finishes on the PGA TOUR and their last five results at the U.S. Open.

GolferOddsLast 5 Finishes on the PGA TOUR
(Recent -> Past)
Last 5 Finishes at the U.S. Open
(Recent -> Past)
Scottie Scheffler+275WON-T4-WON-WON-T8T41-3-T2-T7-MC
Rory McIlroy+850MC-T47-T7-T12-WON2-2-T5-T7-T8
Bryson DeChambeau+800T4-T2-WON-T2-T5WON-T20-T56-T26-WON
Jon Rahm+1200T8-T8-T7-4-T24T10-T12-WON-T23-T3
Xander Schauffele+2000T25-T28-T11-T18-T8T7-T10-T14-T7-5
Collin Morikawa+2500T20-T50-T17-MC-T54T14-T14-T5-T4-MC
Tommy Fleetwood+3500T16-T4-T41-T4-7T16-T5-MC-T50-MC
Ludvig Aberg+3500T13-T16-MC-T60-T54-7T12
Joaquin Niemann+3500WON-T8-T20-WON-T29T32-T47-T32-T23-MC
Justin Thomas+4000T31-MC-T2-WON-T36MC-MC-T37-T19-T8
Tyrrell Hatton+4500T15-T60-T13-T5-T14T26-T27-T56-MC-MC
Shane Lowry+4500T13-T23-MC-T2-T12T19-T20-MC-T65-T43
Sepp Straka+50003-MC-WON-T12-T13T56-MC-MC-T28
Patrick Cantlay+5000T12-MC-T4-T13-T36T3-T14-T14-T15-T43
Brooks Koepka+5500T33-MC-T17-T30-MCT26-T17-55-T4-2
Corey Conners+6000T27-T25-T29-T11-T49T9-MC-MC-MC-MC
Viktor Hovland+6000T25-T28-T54-T13-T21MC-19-MC-WD-T13
Russell Henley+6500T5-MC-T46-T8-MCT7-T14-MC-T13-T25
Ben Griffin+70002-WON-T8-T46-MC
Jordan Spieth+7000T7-T36-MC-T34-4T41-MC-T37-T19-MC
Hideki Matsuyama+700038-T36-MC-T17-T216-T32-4-T26-T17
Sam Burns+80002-T12-T19-T30-T5T9-T32-T27-MC-T41
Odds via DraftKings

Trends:

World Ranking:

All 10 winners were ranked inside the top 32 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), with nine of them inside the top 25.

Nationality:

Eight of the past 10 winners were American.

US Open Form:

Nine of the past 10 winners had already recorded a top 25 finish in a previous U.S. Open.

Recent Majors Form:

Nine of the past 10 winners had posted a top 10 finish in at least one of their two most recent majors.

Current Form:

Eight of the last 10 winners had a top 12 finish in one or both of their two most recent PGA Tour starts.

All credit goes to Dave Tindall. Be sure to check out his 10-year trends article here.


Tournament Props:

Playoff:

Will There Be a Playoff at the U.S. Open? (Yes +500 / No -1000)

The most recent U.S. Open to be decided by a playoff came in 2008 at Torrey Pines, where Tiger Woods famously edged Rocco Mediate in a dramatic Monday finish to capture his third U.S. Open title. Since then, the U.S. Open has not required extra holes, marking the longest playoff drought among golf’s four major championships.

At Oakmont Country Club, three of the previous nine U.S. Opens have also gone to a playoff. Tommy Armour defeated Harry Cooper in 1927, Jack Nicklaus topped Arnold Palmer in 1962, and Ernie Els outdueled Colin Montgomerie and Loren Roberts in 1994.

Hole-in-One:

Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the U.S. Open? (Yes +125/ No -190)

The last hole-in-one at Oakmont Country Club during a U.S. Open came in 1983, when Scott Simpson aced the 228-yard 16th hole. No aces were recorded in the 2016, 2007, or 1994 championships held at Oakmont.

However, hole-in-ones have become more common in recent U.S. Opens. Each of the past three editions featured at least one: two were made at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024, two at Los Angeles Country Club in 2023, and one at The Country Club in 2022.

Wire to Wire Winner:

Will There Be A Wire-to-wire Winner at the U.S. Open? (Yes +700)

The most recent wire-to-wire victory at the U.S. Open came in 2014, when Martin Kaymer dominated from start to finish at Pinehurst No. 2.

Oakmont Country Club has seen just one wire-to-wire champion in its storied history—Ben Hogan in 1953.

Winning Score:

278.5 (Over -115/ Under -120)

The projected winning score for the U.S. Open is set at 278.5. That means a winning score of -2 or better cashes the under, while -1 or worse hits the over.

When Oakmont last hosted in 2016, Dustin Johnson posted a 276 (-4) en route to victory. But since then, the course has undergone a significant renovation—adding even more bite to an already punishing layout.

Players expect a brutal test. Most have pegged the winning score around even par, but Ben Griffin went a step further, suggesting it could take as much as +5 to win.

The last time the winner of the U.S. Open had a winning score was Brooks Koepka (+1) in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills.

Recent Horses for Courses (U.S. Open):

U.S. OpenU.S. OpenU.S. OpenU.S. OpenU.S. Open
Pinehurst Resort
(Course No. 2)
Los Angeles
Country Club
(North Course)
The Country Club
(Composite Course)
Torrey Pines
(South Course)
Winged Foot
(West Course)
GolferEvents PlayedSG: Total (Event)20242023202220212020
Rory McIlroy16+65.0022T5T7T8
Xander Schauffele8+53.00T7T10T14T75
Bryson DeChambeau10+49.00WONT20T56T26WON
Hideki Matsuyama12+45.006T324T26T17
Scottie Scheffler7+42.65T413T2T7
Patrick Cantlay8+41.99T3T14T14T15T43
Jon Rahm8+40.86T10T12WONT23
Harris English9+32.94T41T8T6134
Joohyung (Tom) Kim3+23.57T26T823
Min Woo Lee3+23.57T21T5T27
Brooks Koepka11+22.65T26T1755T4
Denny McCarthy5+21.57T32T20T7
Guido Migliozzi2+19.47T14T4
Collin Morikawa6+42.46T14T14T5T4MC
Dustin Johnson17+31.97MCT10T24T19T6
Russell Henley10+29.03T7T14MCT13

Recent Donkeys for Courses (U.S. Open):

U.S. OpenU.S. OpenU.S. OpenU.S. OpenU.S. Open
Pinehurst Resort
(Course No. 2)
Los Angeles
Country Club
(North Course)
The Country Club
(Composite Course)
Torrey Pines
(South Course)
Winged Foot
(West Course)
GolferEvents PlayedSG: Total (Event)20242023202220212020
Victor Perez5-17.15MCMCMCMCMC
Nick Dunlap3-11.47MCMCMC
Nick Taylor6-2.47MCMCMC
Cameron Davis2-10.24MCMC
Carlos Ortiz4-5.90MCMC
Byeong Hun An8-5.00MCMC
Phil Mickelson22-21.56MCMCMCT62MC
Maxwell Moldovan3-20.03MC65MC
Justin Rose19-6.53MCMCT37MCMC

Recent Horses for Courses (Oakmont Country Club):

U.S. Open
Oakmont Country Club
Golfer2016
Dustin JohnsonWON
Shane LowryT2
Jason DayT8
Brooks KoepkaT13
Bryson DeChambeauT15
Marc LeishmanT18
Adam ScottT18
Byeong Hun AnT23
Jon Rahm (a)T23

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Oakmont Country Club):

U.S. OpenU.S. Open
Oakmont Country ClubOakmont Country Club
Golfer20162007
Tom HogeMC
Carlos OrtizMC
Hideki MatsuyamaMC
Lucas GloverMCMC
Sam Burns (a)MC
Keegan BradleyMC
Justin RoseMC
Patrick ReedMC
Rory McIlroyMC
Denny McCarthyMC
Chris KirkMC
Scottie Scheffler (a)MC
Phil MickelsonMCMC
Tony FinauMC

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

  • 2024: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) − Pinehurst Resort (Course No. 2)
    • Price: 20-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Bryson DeChambeau4th3rd9th17th12th
  • 2023: Wyndham Clark (-10) − Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
    • Price: 66-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Wyndham Clark2nd7th49th3rd4th
  • 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6) − The Country Club (Composite Course)
    • Price: 25-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Matt Fitzpatrick2nd1st10th1st42nd
  • 2021: Jon Rahm (-6) − Torrey Pines (South Course)
    • Price: 10-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Jon Rahm5th5th11th17th20th
  • 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) − Winged Foot (West Course)
    • Price: 25-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Bryson DeChambeau2nd1st1st3rd18th

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2024: Bryson DeChambeau
    • T18 – LIV Houston (LIV)
    • 2 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
    • T27 – LIV Singapore (LIV)
    • T26 – LIV Adelaide (LIV)
    • T6 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
  • 2023: Wyndham Clark
    • T12 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
    • MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
    • WON – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
    • T24 – Mexico Open (PGA)
    • 3 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
    • T10 – RBC Candian Open (PGA)
    • MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
    • T5 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
    • T2 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
    • MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • 2021: Jon Rahm
    • WD – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
    • T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
    • T34 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
    • MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
    • 7 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • 2020: Bryson DeChambeau
    • T6 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
    • T8 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
    • T3 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
    • N/A – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
    • 4 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
    • 2 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Bryson DeChambeau

202320222021202020192018201720162015
Los Angeles Country Club
(North Course)
The Country Club
(Composite Course)
Torrey Pines
(South Course)
Winged Foot
(West Course)
Pebble BeachShinnecock HillsErin HillsOakmontChambers Bay
Bryson DeChambeauT20T56T26WONT35T25MCT15MC

2023: Wyndham Clark

20222021
The Country Club (Composite Course)Torrey Pines (South Course)
Wyndham ClarkMCMC

2022: Matt Fitzpatrick

2021202020192018201720162014
Torrey Pines
(South Course)
Winged Foot
(West Course)
Pebble BeachShinnecock HillsErin HillsOakmontPinehurst No. 2
Matt FitzpatrickT55MCT12T12T35T54T48

2021: Jon Rahm

20202019201820172016
Winged Foot
(West Course)
Pebble BeachShinnecock HillsErin HillsOakmont
Jon RahmT23T3MCMCT23

2020: Bryson DeChambeau

20192018201720162015
Pebble BeachShinnecock HillsErin HillsOakmontChambers Bay
Bryson DeChambeauT35T25MCT15MC

Sportsbook Promotions:

DraftKings:

FanDuel:

Picks:

Outrights

Bryson DeChambeau (+900) – DraftKings

Bryson DeChambeau has shown strong form in the season’s first two Majors, finishing tied for 5th at the Masters and runner-up at last month’s PGA Championship. On the LIV Tour, he continues to impress with finishes of T4 at LIV Virginia last week, a win at LIV Korea, and T2 at LIV Mexico City in his last three events.

As the defending U.S. Open champion, Bryson is returning to Pinehurst Course No. 2, where he claimed last year’s title. This was his second U.S. Open win after his 2020 victory at Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course), a key comparable course this week. Additionally, Bryson has strong results at similar venues: T4 at Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship), T26 at Torrey Pines (South Course, 2021 U.S. Open), and T15 at Oakmont Country Club in the 2016 U.S. Open.

Regionally, Bryson has excelled at Northeastern courses, with wins at the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship (TPC Boston, Massachusetts) and the 2018 Northern Trust (Ridgewood Country Club, New Jersey).

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
2149133125216130719142
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Jon Rahm (+1200) – DraftKings

Jon Rahm has played well through the first two Majors this year, finishing T14 at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship. On the LIV Tour, his recent results include T8 at LIV Virginia, T7 at LIV Korea, and 4th at LIV Mexico City.

Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines (South Course), a comparable venue for this week. He also finished T12 and T10 in the 2022 and 2023 U.S. Opens, respectively, though he withdrew from the 2024 event due to a foot infection. Like Bryson, Rahm played the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, finishing T23.

He has found success on Northeastern courses, with strong finishes such as T6 at the 2020 Northern Trust and T4 at the 2017 Dell Technologies Championship, both held at TPC Boston. He also placed T8 at the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club, Delaware) and T24 at the 2018 BMW Championship (Aronimink Golf Club, Pennsylvania).

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
4948673411387821293186444
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Joaquin Niemann (+3500) – DraftKings

Joaquin Niemann has been the standout player on the LIV Tour this season with four wins, including LIV Adelaide, LIV Singapore, LIV Mexico City, and most recently LIV Virginia.

Though he has struggled historically in Majors, Niemann is showing improvement, finishing T29 in the first Major of the year and posting a career-best T8 at the recent PGA Championship.

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
8131238191213321491011354578
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Harris English (+10000) – DraftKings

At 35, Harris English is playing some of his best golf, highlighted by his 5th PGA Tour win this season at the Farmers Insurance Open, held at Torrey Pines (South Course)—a comparable course this week. He has three top 15s in his last four PGA Tour starts.

English performed well in the first two Majors this year, finishing T12 at the Masters and runner-up at the PGA Championship. His best U.S. Open finish was 3rd in 2021 at Torrey Pines, and he also placed T8 at last year’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club (North Course). Like many others, he played Oakmont in 2016, finishing T37.

English’s regional success includes a T2 at the 2020 Northern Trust (TPC Boston), a 2021 Travelers Championship win (TPC River Highlands, Connecticut), and a T11 at the Truist Championship (Philadelphia Cricket Club) this season.

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
3646281391613241151235721112067
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Keegan Bradley (+10000) – DraftKings

Northeastern native Keegan Bradley, born in Vermont and a Boston Common Golf Team member, enters this Major in solid form with consecutive top 10 PGA Tour finishes. He’s made only one cut miss in 13 starts, though he missed the cut at the Masters and finished T8 at the PGA Championship.

Bradley’s recent U.S. Open results have been mixed, with a T32 in 2024, missed cut in 2023, and T7 in 2022. Regionally, he’s excelled with a 2023 Travelers Championship win (TPC River Highlands), T30 at the Truist Championship, and a 2018 BMW Championship victory at Aronimink Golf Club.

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
337113316158123257421146110317
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Taylor Pendrith (+12000) – DraftKings

Taylor Pendrith is coming off a T27 at the RBC Canadian Open, following strong recent finishes of T12 at the Memorial Tournament and T5 at the PGA Championship.

Pendrith’s U.S. Open results have varied, including a T16 last year at Pinehurst No. 2, missed cuts in 2021 and 2023, and a T23 in 2020 at Winged Foot. He also showed form at Torrey Pines earlier this season with a T7.

He has performed well in the Northeast, highlighted by a T8 at the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club).

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
4011501271572231813972615915024
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Top 20

Shane Lowry (+130) – DraftKings

Shane Lowry arrives at this Major in excellent form, with five top-25 finishes in his last six events. His only recent setback was missing the cut at the PGA Championship due to struggles in short game and putting. Earlier this year, he finished T42 at the Masters.

Lowry’s U.S. Open performances include T19 in 2024 at Pinehurst No. 2 and T20 in 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club (North Course). He placed T2 at Oakmont in the 2016 U.S. Open.

He also has solid results at Northeastern venues with a T9 at the 2024 Travelers Championship, T19 in 2023, and T12 at the 2022 BMW Championship. In Pennsylvania, he finished T2 at the Truist Championship.

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
98532223714110233164149726
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Patrick Cantlay (+140) – DraftKings

Patrick Cantlay comes into this Major with four top-25 finishes in his last five events. His recent PGA Championship was a struggle, missing the cut and facing challenges in all areas except driving.

Cantlay’s U.S. Open record is impressive with a T3 last year at Pinehurst No. 2, and multiple top-15 finishes in previous years. He also performs well at comparable courses, finishing T9 at Oak Hill (2023 PGA Championship) and T5 at Torrey Pines (South Course, 2025 Genesis Invitational).

Regionally, Cantlay has consistent success with top finishes at Northeastern courses including the Travelers Championship and BMW Championship, as well as a T4 at the Truist Championship.

SG: T2GSG: OTTSG: APPSG: ATGSG: P (Poa)3 Putt
Avoid.
SG: T
(Diff.)
Driving
Dist.
P3: 225+P4:
450-500
P5:
600-650
Bogey
Avoid.
Sand SavesProx:
175-200
21774415884142429257010496
Ranks based on last 24 rounds amongst the field. For a more detailed look into each stat, check out the Key Statistics Section.

Harris English (+225) – DraftKings

Keegan Bradley (+225) – DraftKings

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

UFC 316 Free Play – Sports Betting – Julianne Pena vs Kayla Harrison

UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison -625 O/U 4.5

The co-main event of UFC 316 features a highly anticipated women’s bantamweight title fight between reigning champion Julianna Peña and two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. Tonight’s bout takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, and is generating major buzz due to the fighters’ contrasting backgrounds, styles, and the high stakes involved.

Fighter Profiles

  • Julianna Peña (13-5, 8-3 UFC)
    • Former two-time UFC bantamweight champion
    • Known for her aggressive pace, pressure, and strong clinch work
    • Has solid transitional grappling and effective ground striking
    • Notable wins include her shocking upset over Amanda Nunes
  • Kayla Harrison (18-1, 2-0 UFC)
    • Two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo
    • Former PFL champion with dominant grappling skills
    • Steadily improving striking, particularly from her southpaw stance
    • Holds wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira in the UFC

Fight Breakdown

Peña enters as a significant underdog, with odds ranging from +400 to +500, while Harrison is the overwhelming favorite at -625 to -800. The betting lines suggest that Harrison is expected to dominate, particularly in the grappling exchanges.

Peña’s best chance lies in making the fight a brawl, as Harrison has acknowledged that chaotic exchanges could favor the champion. However, Harrison’s superior clinch work and takedown ability make it unlikely that Peña will be able to dictate the fight’s pace.

Harrison’s most probable path to victory is through her grappling dominance. She has a strong positional game, particularly from half guard, and has shown an ability to control opponents with relentless pressure. Peña, while tough and resilient, has struggled against elite grapplers in the past, but she hasn’t been submitted since 2020.

Prediction

I liked Pena’s resilience that she has shown over the past few years against Amanda Nunes.   While she will not win the striking or grappling battle, she can last the full five rounds and has proved it over her last four fights.  I think that Harrison probably gets the win, but at the same time, she has only finished one out of her last four opponents.   Harrison wins by decision more often than not, but let’s take the safe rout over 4.5 rounds.

Over 4.5 rounds +154 – 1 star

Bonus Play:  Ariane De Silva +425 – 1 star – Ariane Da Silva (formerly Ariane Lipsky) came in a whopping six pounds overweight.   I have to assume that she didn’t even really try to cut that much, and will have the weight advantage during this fight.   Cong Wang mistakenly accepted the fight even though she will be smaller individule.   Da Silva has a huge strength of opponent advantage over Cong, and she can fight both on her feet as well as on the mat.   This number is much too big to pass up.

The 2025 Belmont Stakes – Preview & Picks – Sports Betting

Race Time:

  • Date: Saturday, June 7, 2025 ⏰ Post Time: 7:04 p.m. ET 📺 Broadcast: Fox 📡 Live Streaming: & Fox Sports app

Preview:

The 2025 Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown is upon us today at Saratoga Race Course instead of Belmont Park due to ongoing renovations. The race will be run at 1.25 miles instead of the traditional 1.5-mile distance.  There are a total of eight horses in this race which is a bit lower than I had expected.

Key Contenders:

  • Journalism (8-5 favorite) – Won the Preakness Stakes after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby.
  • Sovereignty (2-1 odds) – Won the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness.
  • Baeza (4-1 odds) – Finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
  • Rodriguez (6-1 odds) – Trained by Bob Baffert, missed the first two Triple Crown races due to a foot bruise.

Race Dynamics:

  • Journalism and Sovereignty are expected to be the top contenders, with their rivalry shaping the race.
  • Rodriguez and Crudo are expected to set the early pace, potentially disrupting the favorites.
  • The shorter distance at Saratoga could favor horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina.

Weather:

  • The weather at the track will be a crisp 67 degrees with rain until about 2PM.   The rain will clear up 2pm which is a good four to five hours before post time.  I expect more of a wet track but not necessarily sloppy.

Predictions:

Nobody loves having to bet the favorites in horse racing, but I honestly think that this is a two horse race between the Kentucky Derby winning Sovereignty and the Preakness winner Journalism.   I rate them both as equal being that Sovereignty had a longer layoff.   Both of these horses have run the fastest Beyers speed figures of all the three year old thoroughbreds to date.  Some say that Journalism would have beaten Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby had this horse had a better trip.  I am not 100% sure on that, but I do know that the six horse Baeza was also coming in to attempt a big finish and ended up third.  I think that Baeza is worth a look with Flavien Prat as the Jockey.  Prat, right now, is probably the best jockey in the field.  I have a third spot reserved for Baeza as I think that he is the third best horse in this race.  I will however have Baeza in a trifecta savor box with the other two favorites.  The way that I will construct my ticket is to have the big exacta box with Journalism and Sovereignty.  I will have Baeza at third with a few other combinations at the show spot as I think that the only other three horses that can hit the board are Rodriguez, Crudo, and Hill Road.  Here is my ticket for a total of $150.  Best of luck everyone!

Saratoga, Jun 07
Race #13
Trifecta Box
1st[1, 3, 6]
6 bets @
$5
Ticket total
$30
Saratoga, Jun 07
Race #13
Exacta Box
1st[2, 7]
2 bets @
$25
Ticket total
$50
Saratoga, Jun 07
Race #13
Trifecta
1st[2, 7] – 2nd[2, 7] – 3rd[3, 6]
4 bets @
$10
Ticket total
$40
Saratoga, Jun 07
Race #13
Trifecta
1st[2, 7] – 2nd[2, 7] – 3rd[1, 5]
$4 bets @
$5
Ticket total
$20
Saratoga, Jun 07
Race #13
Superfecta
1st[2, 7] – 2nd[2, 7] – 3rd[6] – 4th[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]
10 bets @
$1
Ticket total
$10