Yesterday was the day we needed, going 3-1 in NBA picks and finally getting a little redemption after a tough week that had about 100 bad beats. That’s the way this industry goes, it ebbs and flows, and that’s why bankroll management and ensuring you’re not overly invested in any one wager is so key. Onto more picks and as always, hopefully onto more wins. Happy new week, everyone!

Bucks win first QTR (-150), 2 units: Khris Middleton hit an amazing final shot in the first game of this series, sealing an OT win for the 3rd seeded Bucks. It was a tone-setter. Will Khris Middleton and other Milwaukee skill players continue to provide exceptional support for Giannis when the game is outside of his control? So far it seems that way, and that means the Bucks are a very dangerous contender in the East. We saw gutsy performances from more than just Middleton, though. While Antetokounmpo was missing free throws and still banking his $200 million contract, Brook Lopez was nailing hook shots, Jrue Holiday secured 11 rebounds and scored 20 points, and Middleton led the Bucks in assists. And the entire team finally really stepped up on defense. We expected positive regression from their defense and they looked like a different unit on that end of the floor.

I wanted to go with the over in this one (222) but I just can’t do it. Both of these units showed a lot of zeal on defense and the total is probably too high once again. Still, I’d lean to the over. Milwaukee wasn’t able to push the pace like they always do, if anything Miami controlled the tempo in game 1, and it’s a big reason why the Bucks almost lost. I expect the home team to stimulate the game-speed early and often.

That’s why I like the Bucks most in the 1st quarter. The Heat could definitely win this game and at +4.5, that seems like the right side to be on. I’ll lean their side but I can’t take it, not with what the adjustments I expect Milwaukee to make as stated above. That being said, the Heat were exhaustively scrappy in the first contest. Jimmy Butler was flying around the court sacrificing his body, Dragic and Robinson were lethal from the outside, Adebayo was assertive at the rim and the entire team played really tight defense. That’s who they but it’s really hard to maintain that level of energy against a team as talented as the Bucks. Especially against Giannis, who’s so long and agile, guarding the Greek Freak and other Bucks’ starters will take its toll.

Building off the momentum of that last second bucket from Middleton, I expect the Bucks to come out hot and in-rhythm Monday night. For the full game, who knows. Miami certainly has the gusto to get a win. If I had to make a prediction, I think Milwaukee steals another one here but this series could very well be tied once it moves to Miami. For tonight, I’ll take an amped up Bucks unit to go ahead early.

Nuggets -1.5 (-115), 2 units: I really love the Nuggets tonight. Lightning doesn’t strike twice but that phrase doesn’t really describe what happened in game 1, does it?

The Blazers legitimately beat Denver. While they flexed a blitzing offensive attack from the first quarter of play, Portland was able to really turn on the jets in the second half. Damian Lillard scored 16 points alone in the 3rd quarter, launching one big 3-pointer after another, and the Blazers out-scored the Nuggets 38-25. Up by 10 entering the fourth quarter, Portland was able to slow down the pace and lock-down Jokic and the Nuggets’ offense, allowing only 23 total points in the final 12 minutes. It was a complete effort from Portland in a game where Carmelo Anthony was 50% from beyond the arc and added 18 points off the bench, McCollum was efficient with 21 points, and big men Nurkic and Powell combined for 26 points and 15 rebounds. And again, like we see so often in the postseason, the Blazers’ defensive energy was at a different level and they were able to stifle the Nuggets’ on many occasions. They were also 94.7% from the free throw line. Denver was an abysmal 50% and only got to the charity stripe for 8 attempts. Expect the aggression and intensity from Denver to change tonight.

When you get a really good team like the Nuggets favored by this tiny amount at home after a game 1 loss, it’s one of the better bets in sports. The Blazers are certainly capable of going up 2-0 in this series, I’m not underestimating them, but Jokic is too good a leader and his supporting cast has proven how resilient and capable they are all year. The Nuggets are all-too-aware why they lost in game 1. Overly reliant on jump-shots and never really finding a rhythm, Denver struggled to find consistent offense against a Portland team that knew exactly who they were. Denver allowed the Blazers to dictate the pace of the game and they paid for it. Porter Jr. was an awful 1-10 from beyond the arc, Campazzo and Rivers combined for only 14 points and 8 assists, Millsap was underutilized off the bench, and Aaron Gordon wasn’t aggressive enough in the front court. Expect some positive regression on all fronts, especially when it comes to Denver getting to the free throw line. If they don’t attack the rim they won’t be able to dictate the pace. If they’re leading or favored early but they’re not forcing the ball down low, look for this game to turn in Portland’s direction again. If the underdogs are in rhythm, I don’t think the Nuggets can hang with the pace or skill of Portland’s perimeter shooters.

I don’t think Denver will let it get to that point. Expect the Nuggets to come out with a different energy and to tie this series at home.

How about them Blazers, eh? If they keep that up I may become a believer. Clamped down on Jokic in the second half, electric from the perimeter. Good stuff. And who doesn’t love a Damian Lillard takeover? What an enigma that dude is. We were 2-3 yesterday, not ideal, but we chug along since that’s all you can do in this industry. Onto the picks!

Wizards/Sixers under 228.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Sixers -8 (-110): We saw some trends in yesterday’s games. It’s the usual trend we see when the playoffs begin– shots are a little harder to make and defenses really start to step up. It’s like suddenly teams like the Blazers and Bucks are just as talented on that end of the court as they are offense. Where was that during the season? Well, motivation was the issue and it appears that won’t be a thing in the postseason (thank God). Not all the unders hit yesterday but we saw really low scoring quarters and better overall effort on the defensive end of the floor. The Sixers deserve to be an 8 point favorite at home as the #1 seed and I lean to their side in this contest. As well as Beal and Westbrook have played and as electric as their offense can be, the 76ers are methodical and precise and should throw off the Wizards with their shut-down defense throughout this contest. Still, the 8th seeded Wizards are capable of staying in ball games and shocking opponents. The way they ended their season has me staying away from betting on the Sixers here. We’ve also seen great effort on defense from Washington players like Hachimura and Ish Smith and I expect them and other skill players to make life difficult for the Philadelphia shooters today. The Sixers know the Wizards are going to try and out-run and overwhelm them with their 1st place tempo, while the Wizards know that the Sixers are going to feed Embiid and try to beat them in the front court. Simmons and Harris and even Howard off the bench are key cogs in that machine, too. Two familiar foes in a playoff battle? Give me the under.

Suns win first half (-130), 2 units: This is a tough game to handicap but the Suns deserve to be favorites and I’m glad they are. Still, I have to avoid the full game line (Suns are -2.5 as I type this). Anything favoring the Suns in between that one and two possession area is too much for me. For the first half line though, I’ll go with Phoenix. We saw the Lakers struggle to put solid 1st/2nd quarters together against the Warriors in the play in game and they might struggle at first again today. For as great a leader as Lebron is and for as much talent as they have surrounding Lebron and Davis, this is a team that hasn’t played together very much this year. Chris Paul and the Suns are built on team chemistry. Paul facilitates better than any player in the NBA and it’s the reason why Phoenix leads the league in assist ratio. Pass-pass-pass-shoot: that’s the way most Phoenix possessions end up (unlike most NBA teams and their penchant for isolation basketball). I expect a Chris Paul led team, with Devin Booker all their skill players full of excitement at home, to come out fluid and showing a ton of chemistry. The Lakers could and just might pull ahead in the second half, but Phoenix in the first feels like a great bet.

Hawks/Knicks under 213 (-110), 1 unit and Capela under 15.5 rebounds (-120), 1.5 units: The only thing that would make this game go over is if the Hawks have a huge offensive quarter like Portland did last night. I don’t see that against the Knicks defense. New York runs at the slowest pace in the association and should be able to put the clamps down on an offense that’s already pretty average in Atlanta. Atlanta is also pretty darn good on defense, ranked 12th in points allowed, and the Knicks have had their struggles on offense. The Hawks do a lot of things well but nothing that jumps off the page or that’s hard to contain. Trae Young can score outside shots all day but the Knicks’ defenders will have a plan to limit his opportunities. The same can be said for Clint Capela. The 27 year old Swiss has been an absolute legend under the rim all year, averaging over 14 rebounds a game. That’s an insane amount of rebounds to average in the NBA. One adjustment I have to make in the postseason when I’m handicapping games is instead of always following trends and asserting my knowledge into my wagers, I need to fade them sometimes, too. Why? Because by this point, NBA coaches and players have figured out the same things we have. The Knicks know Clint Capela is a badass and they’ll do everything they can to limit the Hawks’ second-chance opportunities. He’ll get his, but 16+ rebounds doesn’t seem likely against Julius Randle and the Knicks’ solid front court. It’s that and the under for me in what should be a gritty bar fight type of game.

Lean Jazz -9 (-105) and Lean under 217 (-110): This is a huge line for a playoff game so I won’t play it, though it does feels very deserving. The most consistent team in the NBA with the most wins overall faces one of the most volatile in the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis definitely earned their bid into the big dance– that win against Golden State was impressive– but they’re still far from a championship contender and I think they’ll feel that tonight. Utah is top 5 in so many categories it’s stupid. They should be able to command and maintain control in this game, challenging the Grizzlies early and often on defense and managing an effective offensive game-plan throughout. I also lean under because if Memphis proved anything in the play in tournament, it’s that their defense has another level to it. We didn’t see it much during the season but it’s there. We all know the Jazz can play really exceptional defense and in the playoffs, I can’t see this number rising over 220. Since it’s lined nearly exactly where I would have it, the under is only a lean for me.

The NBA Playoffs are finally here! Here are my best bets and predictions for the first slate of the 2020-2021 postseason:

Heat/Bucks under 227 (-110), 1.5 units (and lean Heat +5): Jimmy Butler was recently quoted saying, “I’m stupidly locked in,” and you know what? I believe him. For 2 years running Jimmy has brought a moxie and toughness to Miami and it’s become emblematic of what they represent to the league. Scrappy and hustling defense. Efficient and in-your-face offense. Resiliency. The Heat waltz into the playoffs with a notch under their belt that a lot of other Eastern Conference teams can’t claim: they have NBA Finals experience. So when Jimmy exudes and expresses confidence about his team heading into this weekend, I’m inclined to take him seriously. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, on the other hand, aren’t in their usual top 2 spot heading into the postseason. The Greek Freak has struggled through some injuries and his team has struggled to play consistent basketball, particularly on defense. The Bucks are fast-paced and hyper-reliant on Giannis for success. While I think that may ultimately derail them from ever winning a championship, the Heat that could derail their immediate chances if they’re not careful. Whatever team controls the game controls the pace and usually has more affect on the total. I’m betting on Miami’s ability to affect this game enough that we see an under. The Heat play at an extremely slow tempo (29th, second slowest only to the Knicks), are top 5 in points allowed and top 7 in defensive efficiency. The only way to stop the Bucks, the NBA’s 1st placed team in points per game, is to slow down Giannis. That’s especially true at Fiserv Forum. A ton of money was made on betting the Heat as underdogs last year in the postseason. While I’ll lean their side today, I’ll bet on their defense and pace affecting this game enough that we get a total well below 227.

Clippers -5 (-115), 1.5 units: If you listened to my Western Conference Playoff Preview podcast that I put out this week, you’d know that I don’t feel great about the Dallas Mavericks’ chances to make the Finals. I mean no disrespect by that; I just can’t see it. There’s a ton of elite teams in the West and the Clippers might be at the top of that heap. Los Angeles’ “other team” is one of the most complete units in the NBA. They’re #1 in the league in 3 point shooting percentage, they’re top 5 in effective field goal and true shooting percentage, and top 8 in both defensive and offensive efficiency, the latter of which they’re #2 overall. But forget all the stats– one look at their roster and it’s plain to see how elite they are. The question is: will they play in-sync with so little time all together and all healthy throughout the year? It bodes well for the Mavericks that Kristap Porzingis is back in the lineup, but how healthy is he? Dallas depends on Kristap as Luka’s number 2 guy but knee pain and soreness has kept him out of the lineup for long stretches of the season. While the Dallas roster isn’t shallow by any means, Kristap and others will have to step up immensely if they want to contend with LAC. In three meetings this year, the Mavericks got the best of the Clippers twice. One of those wins was against a Clippers squad missing Kawhi Leonard, but the other victory was a vintage Luka performance– the Slovenian scored 42 points and had 9 assists to go with it. Luka will need to do that over and over again if the Mavericks have a chance today and in this series. I’m betting on the more complete team to take game 1 by two possessions– the regular season is over.

Nets -8 (-110), 1 unit: This line has gotten a little too big for us to overly invest in but this is the only way I can look. Boston showed some really solid defense in their win against the Wizards to earn the 7th seed but this is a different beast. For the first time in a long time Durant, Harden and Kyrie are all healthy and ready to rock. The last thing Brooklyn wants to do is flounder in game 1 and give Boston confidence. I expect a fast-paced, lethal offensive attack from the Nets to start off this series at home. As good as the Celtics can play in moments, and as much as Brooklyn annoys the piss out of me, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker (although Tatum has played brilliantly recently) have limits to their production and I don’t see them being able to keep up. If you like the Celtics’ side and think they can be really competitive here, consider the under 229.5, too.

Nuggets -1 (-110), 2 units and Blazers/Nuggets under 227.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. The Blazers appear to be the more public team here and that only benefits our wager. I love the Blazers and Damian Lillard is easily one of my favorite players, but this line and the books appear to be discrediting what Denver has done this year. It’s especially downplaying how well they’ve played without Jamal Murray. Since Murray went down with a torn ACL, the Nuggets have won 72% of their games (13 of 18) and kept their spot atop the Western Conference. Sitting comfortably in the 3rd seed to open the playoffs. Nikola Jokic leads a deep roster full of skill-players that know exactly how to best help their teams’ chance to win. Aaron Gordon is perfect for his role as a gritty defender, rebounder, and high percentage shooter. Michael Porter Jr. has taken Murray’s place as a talented and athletic guard capable of scoring a ton of points on any given day. Solid offensive and defensive support from players like Millsap and Campazzo and others off the bench round up a rotation led by Jokic, who commands and facilitates his players better than any big man in the NBA. And all they do is win. Maybe it’s Jokic’s mentality, but the Nuggets are a very cerebral and consistent team. Kind of like the Colts in the NFL (especially when they have good quarterback play), the Nuggets are just too deep at every position to get outplayed most nights. The Blazers aren’t shallow either, but they’re not as consistent as Denver. Portland ended their 2021 season on a high, winning 10 of their last 12 games, including a meaningless win against the Nuggets in their final contest. Denver bested them twice before that in two games where Jokic dominated, scoring 41 in the first matchup and 25 in the second, which connects to the real issue of the Blazers– defense. Jokic and company have had their way with a Portland unit ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in points allowed. The Denver offense is top 8 in both ppg and offensive efficiency. The Portland offense can produce and they have a ton of talented scorers; it’s just really hard to be as efficient as they need to be to overcome their struggles on the other end of the floor. I trust what I’ve seen from Jokic and Denver this year at they’re hosting game 1 in their home arena– I’m on the Nuggets to win.

As far as the small under bet goes, the Blazers and Nuggets both play at surprisingly low tempos (19th and 26th, respectively). The nerves of game 1 and the expected positive regression that comes with playoff defense, combined with their slow tempos, has the total a little too high for me. I’ll take the under for a humble 1 unit.