The starters for game 2 of this series are RHP Nick Pivetta (3.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) for Boston and LHP Drew Smyly (5.11 ERA, 1.32) for the Braves. Smyly has been consistent whether he’s home or away but Pivetta has pitched better at home this season with a 1.17 WHIP. Both of these offenses are hot and rank in the top 10 in wOBA this season against their R/L split for todays game. Pivetta is the better pitcher here and he also has the better bullpen to back him up.
This should be a fun game today with such a high total. Nick Pivetta is pitching for the Redsox and boasting a very nice 3.44 FIP over 47 innings this year. Drew Smyly is pitching for the Braves and looking at his numbers this year, there isn’t much to smile about. 6.36 FIP over 37 innings isn’t good at all. What makes this worse is that Smyly is a fly ball pitcher with over 47% of his hits in the air so far this year while the wind is blowing out today in Boston. Now the main thing for me here is that even though everyone is predicting bullpen regression for Boston, they still rank 3rd in Bullpen FIP while Atlanta ranks 17th. How much regression was bought into this line? Boston is the better hitting team ranking 4th in wRC+ to Atlanta’s 10th. The price is wrong in this game.
Boston -137 – 2 stars
Colorado vs NY Mets -132 O/U 6.5
This is a pretty low total here especially looking at the wind blowing out at 12 MPH at Citi Field. Now Marquez is a decent pitcher with a 3.96 FIP, but the Rockies Bullpen isn’t exactly what I would call championship material rankings 29th in FIP and last in ERA. The Rockies are not a good hitting team but they are due for some positive regression being that they have been stranding a bunch of runners in scoring position. This total is just a bit too low and I trust the over and lean the NY Mets at -132.
Last night we saw the Edmonton Oilers get swept by the Winnipeg Jets. The odds for a Jets sweep were wound 4% prior to the series starting. Minnesota managed to stay alive defeat the Golden Knights by a score of 4-2, where they were both outplayed and outshot. We don’t have any elimination games on tonight’s slate but, we do have two interesting matchups. The Canadian’s have dropped two in a row, after taking game one and look to even the series up at home. In the Central Division Playoffs, Carolina looks to take the series lead back home, while Nashville looks to continue their momentum after back to back OT wins.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-185) @ Montreal Canadians (+155)
The Leafs have managed to pull out two wins in a row against the Canadians after a sub par performance in Game 1. The Maple Leafs are the favorites in tonight’s game coming in at -180 on the moneyline.
The story in this series has been Carey Price’s play following his injury. Price will start in net for the Habs tonight posting a 3.9 GSAx. The Maple Leafs have not confirmed their starter for tonight but, Jack Campbell is expected. Campbell hasn’t been as impressive but still boasts a 1.6 GSAx in the playoffs.
The Canadians have undoubtedly given Toronto better games than they expected. However, all the stats point to Toronto in this matchup. They have the second best goals % and expected goals % in the playoffs so far. This game is a toss up for me though as the value for the Leafs ml is gone and based off previous games I don’t trust Montreal in this spot especially with some injury issues. The total has been set at 5.5 all three games in this series and has gone under twice. The last game ended 2-1 with both teams going 0-7 combined on the powerplay. With all the scoring chances both teams have generated, I like tonight’s game goes over the total of 5.5.
The Nashville Predators head back to Carolina after winning back to back overtime games to even up the Series at 2-2. The Hurricanes opened this game as -185 favorites but, after overnight action the line has moved to -200. This was definitely expected after Carolina dropped 2 OT games away to Nashville.
With less than 3 hours until puck drop neither team has confirmed their starting goalie. Alex Nedeljkovic was the starting goalie for the Canes morning skate so based off that information, I’m expecting he will start. Nedeljkovic enters Game 5 with a positive GSAx of 1.1. Juuse Saros is expected to start for Nashville after picking up back to back wins. He’s been decent in the playoffs having a +0.5 GSAx through the first four games.
Carolina comes into Game 5 with a slight advantage in high danger scoring chances and expected goals for. Entering this series, they dominated the Predators in both these categories. Nashville has their top line to thank for closing that gap, as they have been one of the best lines in playoffs posting an expected goals rate of 75%. Carolina’s top line hasn’t been as good, but isn’t far off with an expected goals rate of 61%. Nobody thought Nashville would play as well as they have. They were one of four teams who entered the playoffs with less than 70 points. The home team has taken every game of this series, and with it heading back to Raleigh, I’m looking to take Carolina in this spot. They’re coming off back to back overtime losses where each of those games could have gone either way. I think Carolina takes Game 5 and regains control of this series.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation -0.5, -130 (Risk 1.30 Units)
The Orioles couldn’t get it done and the Mets, man oh man they annoy me. Do I play on them again today behind deGrom? See below to find out. With limited time as my day ends, here’s a shorter version of my typical write-up with 2 picks below!
Mets -1.5 (-105), 1 unit: Only a 1 unit bet here but Kyle Freeland is not in the same universe as Jacob deGrom. Although I don’t have to say that for most of you, I still have to say that (ya know? ya know?). I do wish deGrom would bring back the long flowing hair but that’s another story for another day. The Mets bats are volatile but there’s little reason for them to stay cold tonight against Freeland, who ended last season on the decline and a devolving command. Bet on the Mets to serve deGrom well in this one, which we all know rarely happens.
Yankees (-180), 1.8 units: These two teams couldn’t be going in more opposite directions. The ol’ Bronx Bombers have won 6 in a row while the Blue Jays have lost 6 in a row. Corey Kluber has no choice but to face some negative regression tonight, unless of course he throws for another no-hitter, but that doesn’t mean he’ll drastically devolve. Kluber looks confident and cerebral at the mound, shades of former self, and I have to play on him here. I don’t see any signs that he won’t keep flexing and the Yankees bats have been consistently delivering when needed. Toronto starts Steven Matz today, who’s played well at times and not so well in others, and I just don’t trust the Blue-Jays’ bats to muster a win here against an ace in ace form. Unlike New York, Toronto cannot find their offense when they need it. I’ll take the Yankees to keep the streak going behind Kluber.
A sterling 2-0 Monday makes us 5-1 the last 2 days, which means we’re back to our winning ways! On a separate note, if you want the video/podcast version of my picks tonight, check out my Twitter for the 40 minutes I did with Kyle Hunter today. Kyle is one of the best minds in sports betting and someone I’ve looked up to for many years, so it was a real honor to be on his show. Onto today’s picks!
Tatum over 30.5 points (-120), 2 units and Lean Celtics/Nets over 227 (-115): I really want to bet the over tonight, which is a ballsy move with how slow a lot of these NBA games are moving, but I just can’t do it. The one bet I do like is Tatum’s point prop.
One thing that I think we can expect in this game is at least some signs of improvement from Boston’s offense. The Celtics only managed to score 20 points in the 3rd and 4th quarters against a Nets’ defense that we all know isn’t very good. Maybe Brooklyn’s capable of more and that’s what we saw in game one, but just their potential doesn’t make them a great defensive team. I don’t trust they can sustain it until I see more. Even more glaring was how badly Jayson Tatum played Saturday. Tatum was on the court for 41 of the game’s 48 minutes and was only able to muster 20 points. He was 6/20 from the field and 1/4 from beyond the arc. Kemba Walker is a decent #2 but he’s too often unaccountable, leaving Tatum with a huge weight on his shoulders in big game-situations. Walker didn’t fare well on Saturday either, shooting only was 5/16 from the field. I think he’ll perform better tonight, too. Still, Boston cannot win without a huge performance from Tatum. Going down 0-2 will leave the Celtics in a terrible position, one they likely can’t dig out of, and I think Tatum will do everything humanly possible to prevent that from happening. I’ll put a confident 2 units on him to ball out.
It’s also another reason why I lean to the over. While the Nets started off slow in the first two quarters of game one, they showed real rhythm and chemistry in the second half. I expect that to carry over into tonight’s game. The pace of game one was well below the average for each of these squads at 93 possessions. I expect regression to the mean in tempo too, since both of these teams average well over 100 possessions per game. If Tatum performs well, the tempo increases and Brooklyn keeps their rhythm like we expect, 227 could look like a silly-low number when this game concludes.
Lakers win (-125), 2 units: Keep your thumbs ready on Twitter, I think this will be a really great game to watch. There’s a few of competing trends to consider tonight:
The Suns cover the spread at an NBA best 64.9% at home.
The Lakers have not been a good favorite this year, covering at a rate of only 47.1%.
Historically when a team loses game one, their chances of winning the series are just over 20%. When Lebron-led teams lose game one, they win the series over 60% of the time. That’s quite a difference.
At most books, the Lakers are still slightly favored to win this series.
This feels like a very “Brady-like situation” before his team enters the playoffs. Like Brady, we always wonder: is it time to fade Lebron? Is this the year we see some regression?
Usually the answer, to both Brady or Lebron, is still NO. Interestingly, I don’t think game two is as really about Lebron James. It’s about Anthony Davis. Lebron will show up and facilitate and lead his team and probably flop 5 times for 6 made free throws and the Lakers will be better for it. Anthony Davis, however, well he looked god-awful in game one. Making DeAndre Ayton look like the real prodigy, Davis was 5-16 from the field for only 13 points, 0-2 from 3 point land, and had a mind-blowingly bad point differential of -18 (meaning 31 points were scored against him, whereas he only scored 13). It doesn’t get much worse than that.
A motivated Anthony Davis is different human. You would think that game one of the Western Conference Playoffs would be enough to ignite the young superstar, but it wasn’t. That should change tonight. Check out player-props on Davis to make some money off of that. On a normal day with equal motivation, Anthony Davis should be the lone Sherriff of the front court. He’s too long and too talented a shooter to let the Suns throw off his game like we saw on Sunday.
In addition to the many aspects where Phoenix did a better job in the first contest, the Lakers were out-rebounded 47-33, only shot 27% from beyond the arc, and shot 60.7% from the free throw line. An amped up Anthony Davis will alter those statistics but the rest of the Lakers have to do better, too. Expect Lebron James and Frank Vogel to make the adjustments they need for tonight.
The Suns are a great basketball team but besides DeAndre Ayton, they’re small. They’re also very young. Chris Paul is a phenomenal leader and Devin Booker has looked great, but I still think a pissed off Lakers team will be too much for them to overcome tonight. I expect this series to be tied when they head to the Staples Center.
Mavericks/Clippers over 216 (-110), 1 unit: Again it’s awfully scary to take an over bet but I feel good enough to put a humble unit on it (as I big gulp). At 87.5 possessions, the Mavericks and Clippers’ game one was by far the slowest paced game in the first week of the playoffs. Methodical and precise, Dallas was able to out-shoot and out-perform their foe, holding a lead for what felt like the entire game. Luka had a big night with 31 points while Porzingis, Finney-Smith and Hardaway Jr. added another 52 points to help support their star. Dallas shot 50% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc.
The Clippers, who have always been too shot-dependent, didn’t fare so well. LAC shot 44% from the field and only 27.5% from distance. The latter is shocking. The Clippers were the best 3-point shooting team in the association entering the playoffs, hitting at over 41%. Ergo, I reckon it’s reasonable to assume some positive regression tonight.
Their stars also went cold. Kawhi and George ended up scoring 26 and 23 respectively, not bad, but they were a combined 17-40 from the field and 3/14 from beyond the arc. That has to change if they want to overcome Luka and the Mavericks. Luka will find a way to get his points–we’ve seen it over and over again in big-game situations– so the Clippers not only have to continue clamping down on defense but they need to overwhelm Dallas with their offensive skill players. If they don’t, LAC could be in an uncomfortable situation heading to Dallas down 0-2. I can hear Steve Ballmer shrieking now.
The Mavericks are a solid team but, on paper, they shouldn’t be able to contend with the Clippers. LAC has two Luka-stars in Kawhi and George and a deep roster with tons of playoff experience– Rondo, Ibaka, Beverly, Morris Sr. Expect them to put out more efficient performances tonight. While I think the Clippers will win (when you’re favored by 7 you probably should), I can’t bet their side with how well Dallas performed in game one. I’m just not sure how adept LAC is at stopping the Dallas offense. What I can assume is that the Clippers are bothered by their offensive showing last time out and will look to correct that with simple scheming and better shot selection tonight. Even after the molasses-like-pace of these two teams in game one, I like the stars to shine bright tonight and push this total over the 216. I’ll starting holding my breath now.
The starters in this on are both having career years with Joe Musgrove going for the Pads and Corbin Burnes getting the nod for the Brew Crew. Both of these guys post below 2.50 ERAs and below 1 WHIPs. This has low score written all over it. However, San Diego ranks 7th in wOBA against righties and has a top 3 bullpen. The Brewers struggle to get the offense going against good pitchers and they are only averaging 3.57 runs at home this season.
THE PICK – take the Padres ML at plus money!
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs TAMPA BAY RAYS
Youth vs Vet. 25 year old Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals and ageless Rich Hill gets the nod for the Rays. You could compare Hill to fine wine as he has gotten better with age. He comes into this one owning a 3.89 ERA and an impressive 1.07 WHIP. On the other hand, Brad Keller has struggled a bit this season posting a 6.52 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. In addition to the starters, Tampa Bay has a top 5 pen and have been HOT lately winning 11 straight while tearing the cover off the ball. That wont change tonight.
THE PICK – take the Rays on the Run Line!
TEXAS RANGERS vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS
33 year old rookie Hyun-jong Yang goes for the Rangers. Yes, I said 33 year old rookie. Yang owns a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 on the year but has 1.50 WHIP away from Texas. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels in this one posting a 6.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at home this season. When these pitchers give way to the bullpen, don’t expect the runs to stop as both pens rank in the bottom half of the league. On top of that, the Rangers are averaging 4.43 runs per game on the road while the Angels average 5 runs per game at home.
NYY batting .348, SLG .698 vs Matz
Matz 7.18 ERA last 5 starts vs NYY
Matz 5.80 ERA last 7 starts
Matz 5.80 ERA in night games this season
TOR bullpen 6.20 ERA last 10 games
Kluber 2.45 ERA last 7 starts
Kluber 2.01 ERA at home this season
Kluber 2.39 ERA in night games this season
MLB
Indians at Tigers 7:10
Civale vs Skubal
Pick: CLE -139 LEAN
Civale 4-0 , 2.80 ERA last 5 vs DET
CLE batting .303 last 10 games vs LHP
CLE slugging .650 vs Skubal
Skubal 6.94 ERA in 3 starts vs CLE
Skubal 5.85 ERA last 7 starts
Skubal 3.27 ERA in day games, 6.35 ERA in night games
In his last 8 starts, Skubal has allowed exactly 2 runs in starts only to follow that start by allowing 4 or more runs. He allowed 2 runs in his last start.
We have 5 playoff games on tap for today. Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, and Vegas all have the ability to clinch their respective series. The first round of the playoffs have lived up to the hype, providing great games night in, and night out. Lets take a look at some of tonight’s games, and try to turn this playoff skid around.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) @ Florida Panthers (-105)
Tampa Bay enters tonight’s game as a -115 favorite, coming off Game 4 where they closed as a -140 home favorite.
Andrei Vasilevskiy starts in net again for the Lightning as he has the previous four games. Vasilevskiy has played well all playoffs entering Game 5 with a 5.7 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). On the other hand, the Panthers have had horrible goaltending this post season. Sergei Bobrovsky has the worst GSAx in the playoffs out of any goalie with a -4.0. Chris Driedger hasn’t been much better as he has a -2.0 GSAx this post-season. Florida looks for hope in their rookie goalie Spencer Knight, who will start for them tonight in a must win game.
Tampa’s AgA (Average Goals Against) increases by 0.4 when on the road. Florida’s Aga’s drops drastically at home going from 3.23 Away to 2.32 at Home. The Panthers AgF (Average Goals For) drops at home by 0.1, as Tampa’s decreases on the road by 0.57. Even with Florida starting a rookie goalie who’s played four games, I think this game stays under. The total has gone over in 3 out of 4 games this series, mainly due to Florida’s goaltending. Florida understands they have to be more disciplined on defense to pull this win out and stay alive, especially with Knight in net.
Pick: Under 6.0, -115 (Risk 1.15 Units – Pointsbet)
Edmonton Oilers (-120) @ Winnipeg Jets (+100)
Edmonton enters this game down 3-0 in the series to a team that really was not given a shot to win this series due to some major injuries. The Oilers we’re up 4-1 in the third period last night and ended up losing 5-4 in OT. This team is facing playoff humiliation for the second year in a row and needs to win tonight to avoid getting swept. They open up Game 4 at -120 on the moneyline after closing Game 3 at -130.
If you told me at the start of this series that Connor Hellebuyck would have 6.0 GSAx vs the Oilers who he’s struggled against all season, I’d say you’re out of your mind. Yet, here we are as he enters Game 4 with the second best GSAx in the playoffs behind Fleury. Mike Smith starts opposite of Hellebuyck tonight for Edmonton.
The Jets have just flat out been the better team in the playoffs, speaking from a personal and analytical viewpoint. The Jets are offered at their lowest price of the series tonight at +100. They’ve proven they can defeat the Oilers and have the ability to eliminate them from playoff contention tonight. Even with all that said, the value for the Jets has been lost based off their recent success. With a -120 moneyline tonight, I think McDavid and company pull this game out and live to fight another day.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers ml, -120 (Risk 1.20 Units – Pointsbet)
Minnesota Wild (+155) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-175)
The Vegas Golden Knights are offered at -175 ml tonight which is the highest price of the series. The moneyline for the Knights closed at -110 and -115 for Games 3 and 4.
After dropping Game 1, the Golden Knights have rattled off 3 straight wins behind the hottest goalie in the playoffs, Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury enters Game 5 with the best GSAx in the playoffs. He’ll once again start for the Golden Knights tonight. Minnesota has not confirmed their starting goalie tonight but is expected to be Cam Talbot.
Vegas has shut down the Minnesota offense this series, led by their penalty kill. The Golden Knights have only allowed an average of 1.0 GPG this series. The total has gone under in all of the games this series besides Game 3. Even though the total has trended under in this series, these games have not been close as Vegas has covered the puckline in the past 3 games. However, I think tonight will be a little closer since it is an elimination game but, Vegas should still win this game. The only game to go overtime in this series was Game 1, and the -175 ml is just a little too pricey for me.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation -0.5, -120 (Risk 1.20 Units)
