The starters for this one are Mets RHP Marcus Stroman (2.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) and righty Jordan Holloway (2.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) will be the opener for the Marlins. Both of these pitchers have a WHIP under 1 in home and away splits (Stroman 0.93 road WHIP, Holloway 0.80 home WHIP) and these teams are not good against right handed pitchers ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league. In the past week, New York and Miami rank 27th and 29th in the league in wOBA and the Marlins have a top 10 bullpen to come in after the opener.
THE PICK – Under 7
ATLANTA BRAVES vs PITTSBURGH PIRATES
The battle of the Andersons’! RHP Ian Anderson (3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) gets the nod for the Braves and Lefty Tyler Anderson (3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) goes for the Bucs. Both pitchers are having an excellent season thus far and I don’t see that changing. Reason being that the Braves Rank 21st in wOBA against lefties and Pirates rank 25th in wOBA against righties. Ian Anderson should go deep in this one which will help their miserable bullpen. If Tyler Anderson cant do the same, it wont matter as much because Pittsburgh’s pen is one of the best in the league.
THE PICK – Under 8
OAKLAND ATHLETICS vs LOS ANGELOS ANGELS
James Kapriellian comes into his 2nd start of the season for the A’s coming off a 5 inning start against the potent Red Sox offense but only gave up 1 run and stuck out 6. He will face another tough offense in the Troutless Angels. I” realize that 1st start went well but i see him regressing to his minor league numbers (1.93 WHIP). The Angels are throwing out Jose Quintana, who seems like he just keeps getting worse while owning a horrible 8.53 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. I don’t see this game going well for the pitchers as Oakland ranks in the top 10 in hitting lefties and Angels do the same vs righties. Also, if these starters get into trouble, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league and ,specifically, the Angels are in the bottom 5. This spells RUNS!
To say I’m looking forward to these play-in games ending would be a grand understatement. I never liked the concept and the basketball gods seem to be punishing me for it. Once I saw how the first quarter ended in the Pacers/Warriors game, with 3 straight missed free throws to obliterate my over 60 bet, I knew it was going to be a long night. I also wanted to put a shotgun shell through my TV but fortunately I kept a modicum of control. Gambling is a grind and you have to take the ups and downs in stride and remember it’s a long term game. In the long term, you know what we do here at TheOddsBreakers. Win. Dusting myself off and onto today’s picks:
The Bets:
Grizzlies/Warriors first half over 108 (-110), 1.5 units
Valanciunas over 15.5 rebounds (-120), 1.2 units
Warriors -3.5 (-110), 2 units
Warriors win (-180), 2.5 units
In case you missed Wednesday’s highly entertaining game between the Warriors and Lakers, it was clear who the best player on the court was– Steph Curry. Curry started off a little slow but then became his usual, unstoppable self. If he couldn’t get open beyond the arc, he would dribble around/through/over the Lakers’ big defenders and take it to the rim. When he did get open beyond the arc, he was as special as ever. Curry was 6 for 9 from 3 point land and had 37 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists in a Warrior-high 41 minutes. His points-prop is appropriately high at 38 (-110) tonight. While that’s a little too high for me to wager on, I wouldn’t be shocked if he scored way beyond that total. Curry will be the key again Friday as the Warriors attempt to earn a playoff bid against a Grizzlies team who easily had their way with the Spurs. But who’s the key for Memphis?
I think it’s Jonas Valanciunas. The 6’11” big man had a fantastic game against a tough Spurs defense 2 nights ago, scoring 23 points and snagging 23 rebounds. I haven’t talked about Valanciunas enough in these articles but that’s on me. Accompanying Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks and other skill players for Memphis, Valanciunas plays basketball like he’s in a rugby contest. He looks like a taller Brock Lesnar with a beard, pushing and prying his way to the rim and roughing up defenders along the way. He also has an Jokic-like elegance to his shot, a nice 1-2 combo for a center who’s counted on often. The Warriors are a small team, everyone knows that, but they played pretty damn big against the Lakers. Kevon Looney grabbed 13 rebounds, Draymond Green had another 9 rebounds and Green made life difficult for the Lakers’ bigs every chance he had. Memphis’ Jaren Jackson is no slouch either, but Valanciunas is the focal piece for the Grizzlies’ front court offense. Golden State’s “bigs” might still be sore from bumping backs and knees with the big men of LAL, so I expect Valanciunas to have his way at the rim tonight. I don’t like the juice we’re paying, but Valanciunas over 15.5 rebounds feels like a great bet.
The total for the first half (108) is too low. The 221 full game total feels more accurate– action tends to slow down in the 4th quarter and both of these teams can play defense– but the Warriors and Grizzlies play at a quick tempo and they match up well on offense against each other. Golden State loves to play perimeter ball and their guards find brilliant ways to get open. Memphis likes to drive the ball and out-muscle their opponents. I expect both squads to have early success until adjustments are made at the half so I’ll gladly take the first half total over. Two quarters over 54 points is not only plausible with these two offenses, it’s likely. On the season, Golden State averages 56.6 ppg at the half, while Memphis averages 55.9 (according to teamrankings.com).
Onto the actual game. This line is up to -210 on the Warriors moneyline, not exactly advantageous, but there’s a lot to like about them in this matchup. I also think they’re a fantastic parlay leg if you like another play in NHL or MLB. Golden State is up to -5 at most books now, which I’d consider a small play on, but I certainly love -3.5 more. I posted that I’m taking the Warriors at -3.5 yesterday, so sorry but not sorry– follow me on Twitter for those lookahead lines! Golden State was easily the better team in the first half against the Lakers. In the second half, different story. For anyone agonizing about the Warriors and claiming that they “should have won” Wednesday night, unfortunately you have to play 2 good halves to beat a team as resilient as the Lakers, and the Lakers absolutely outplayed them in the 2nd. Any-who, this is the second time the Warriors and Grizzlies are facing each other at the Chase Center; Golden State won the first. The Warriors were 2-1 against Memphis on the year and playing at home will be a big advantage Friday. We’ve seen that work wonders in the play-in tournament so far in 5 consecutive games– the home team won every contest.
The Warriors are also the better team. I don’t agree with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith very often but yesterday he said, “the Warriors will make the NBA pay when Klay Thompson returns next year.” I second that. Steve Kerr is one of the smartest coaches in the NBA, his young roster is developing and playing hard, and they have one of the best players on the planet in Steph Curry. In 2021 they’ve made huge strides on defense, their front court is formidable and they have players who can provide legitimate support for Curry on offense. They won’t be champions this year but I love the Warriors side and moneyline tonight.
The NHL Playoffs continue to deliver drama with double overtime games and huge upsets. There’s four games on the slate today, so lets take a look at some of those matchups.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) @ New York Islanders (-110)
The Islanders look to take the lead in Game 3 of this series on home ice. Game 2 was a defensive battle unlike Game 1, where there was 7 goals combined scored. Pittsburgh has been the better team but, their goaltending in Game 1 cost them a 2-0 series lead. Instead, we head into tonight’s game all tied up at 1-1.
The Islanders are sticking with their Game 2 starter, Semyon Varlamov who allowed 2 goals on 45 shot attempts. Pittsburgh will likely start Tristan Jarry, as he has started the previous two games for them but, has yet to be confirmed.
Pittsburgh is expected to get Malkin back for Game 3, as earlier reports have indicated. This should be a huge boost to Pittsburgh offense, specifically the Powerplay. The New York Islanders however, have been great at home all season with a 21-4-3 record. Since losing their captain Anders Lee the Islanders have struggled to find the back of the net. Their first three lines in this series do not have a great xGF. Besides that weak first goal in Game 2, Varlamov was solid, having a +2.7 goals saved above expectation. Tristan Jarry, opposite of him, also played well and rebounded from his Game 1 woes. The total for this series has been low in the first two games (5.0, 5.5) and is set at 5.5 again for tonight’s game. Even with the total being that low, I believe this game stays under.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-125) (Risk 1.25 Units)
Montreal Canadians (+170) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-200)
The Leafs take on Montreal after winning the first ever North Division. The Canadians grabbed the last spot in the playoffs, beating out the Flames by 4 points. In the previous seasons the Leafs have been plagued by playoff woes. They look for redemption against a Canadians team that is going with a veteran lineup, scratching two of their best young players in Caufield and Kotkaniemi in Game 1.
The Habs are expected to start Carey Price, who they get back from injuries, in addition to Gallagher. Opposite of Price, Toronto has confirmed that Jack Campbell will start in net.
The Canadians are only given a 26.3% chance of winning this series according to the series odds. However, the Canadians can beat the Maple Leafs in this series if Price plays well and they stay disciplined. The public and media would dispute that statement, as they believe the Habs don’t stand a chance in this series. Toronto is offered at -200 tonight which is about twenty cents lower than the previous two games. In those games Toronto won 3-2 and 5-2. Even though the Habs can win this series, I like Toronto here in Game 1 given the Habs recent struggles.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation -1.0, -105 (Risk 1.05 Unit)
We went 4-1 in MLB betting yesterday, can’t hate that, and as we move and groove towards summer we’ll have more ammunition and more information to fire away on great angles. It’s a smaller slate on Thursday– let’s get to the picks!
Yankees win (-118), 1.5 units: I’m counting on some negative regression today for Texas’ Dane Dunning (4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP over 37.1 innings) and some positive regression for the Yankees’ Domingo German (3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 37.1 innings). Although German has allowed some hard contact and runs in a few of his starts, in general he keeps hitters off base and limits their scoring. His WHIP speaks to that. Dane Dunning has a rather abysmal LOB mark (67.7%), Ground Ball rate (55.6%) and an unimpressive velocity yet somehow has managed to keep his opponents from slamming a ton of deep balls. The Yankees have to be pumped after Kluber’s no-hitter yesterday, he appears to be back to his old form, and New York is certainly capable of smacking anything Dunning brings to the mound Thursday.
Angels win (-110) Game 1, 1.5 units: The LA Angels look to keep improving a rotation that needs it. With an AL worst 5.33 collective ERA, the Angels have recently inserted Alex Cobb (5.48 ERA, 1.69 WHIP over 21.2 innings) and Griffin Canning into their rotation, both of which bring a nice arsenal capable of giving LAA’s starters more rest and their defense more command. According to FanGraphs, “Cobb’s strikeout rate has nearly doubled from last year’s 16.8% as he’s gotten more swings and misses from his curveball,” and he’s done a much better job at preventing hard contact this year, “(Cobb’s) barrel rate has dropped from 9.5% to 3.4%, and his hard-hit rate from 48.2% to 37.3%.” The Twins don’t scare me at bat these days, either. Although they’ve improved in number of different categories recently, they’re inconsistent and seemingly incapable of taking advantage of prime opportunities (yesterday’s game against Giolito was a great example of that). Lewis Thorpe (4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 10 innings), the 6’1″ 25 year old leftie, takes the mound today for the Twins as he gets another call-up and another shot to prove his worth. I don’t know too much about Thorpe but I know he leans a little too much on an average four-seam fastball and he’s hittable, granting multiple runs every time he’s taken the mound. I’m on the Angels here in a good spot, at home, looking for redemption after blowing their last series against the Indians.
Red Sox win (+114), 1 unit: This is a simple handicap. Nick Pivetta (3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 42.2 innings) has provided me with quite a few wins this year and although Steven Matz (4.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 42 innings) looked solid in the early going, but he’s been exposed recently, allowing 32 hits and 17 runs in his last 5 starts. Boston has the better offense and they looked mighty healthy yesterday. At + money, I’ll take the Red Sox to grab a series win here.
The play-in tournament games are kicking my ass a little, but that’s okay. Just like the regular season, which started off with me on a losing streak, we’ll recover and be back to our humming win percentage before you know it. Let’s start that tonight!
The Bets:
Pacers/Warriors 1Q over 60 (-115), 2 units,
Pacers/Warriors under 237.5 (-110), 1.5 units, and Lean, Pacers +3 (-110):
I know what you’re thinking. It’s the play in tournament, aka the playoffs, and we can’t treat totals the same. Unders hit way more. You’re right and you may be right tonight and that’s usually true about any playoff game in a professional sport. Defenses tend to thrive and players’ nerves are sky-high; every moment counts when facing elimination. For the full game that’s the way I’m looking, too. Both of these teams realize how their offenses can overwhelm their opponents and how quickly they can score. Emotions and anxiety will be high and shots won’t come as easy as they usually do. I think this will all happen eventually, but not in the 1st quarter.
Indiana and Washington are mirrors of each other. Not only do the Pacers and Wizards both predicate their philosophies on offensive production (the Pacers are 6th and the Wizards are 3rd in points per game), but they both have flawed defenses and even more importantly, they both move at light speed. That’s usually almost always a sure-fire recipe for a big total. While the Pacers are 11th in defensive efficiency, a skewed stat with how high their totals usually go, they’re 25th in points allowed. Washington is dead last, allowing 118.5 ppg. In the first quarter of play (and perhaps the first half, take a look at that as well), we should see the same teams we always do. Sabonis and Westbrook and Brogdon and Beal all sprinting down the court and sinking shots from all around the field– I expect an entertaining and high octane start to the game.
I won’t officially choose a side tonight, I think the line is dead-on, but I’ll lean Indiana. I don’t love what I’ve seen from Washington lately. I’m sure Westbrook will explode at some point but he doesn’t seem like himself. His confidence is waning, the shot selection is poor, and he’s not attacking the rim like he usually does. Beal not being at 100% surely doesn’t help the Wizards chances either. The Pacers aren’t great on defense but they proved how scrappy they can be against the Hornets. They’ve also lost 3 straight times to the Wizards in the regular season. Paybacks are a bitch and they have considerably more momentum than their foe heading into this contest. If Westbrook has another bad game and/or if Beal continues to show signs of volatility, this might not be close.
Either way, this should be an entertaining game between two teams that, in actuality, barely deserve to be in the playoffs. Don’t expect either of these teams to compete with the 76ers in the first round, but if you’re looking for good drama and two explosive offenses, Thursday’s game should deliver.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev flies solo to start discussing NFL season previews, power ratings and win totals by division. First, we get into how the NFL screwed up fantasy football for the 2021 season. Next, Kiev gets into the NFC North and NFC South previews and season win totals with some plays. Which teams have the hardest schedules? Which teams gained and lost the most in free agency? Which teams had the best and worst drafts? Finally, Kiev discusses UFC Fight Night 188 with some leans and some plays! Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Check out episode 5 of Laying the Points with FarleyBets as Chris takes a deep dive into the Western Conference teams competing in the postseason and their chances of making it to the NBA Finals! Check out his article on today’s games for his picks.
We have one of the deepest fields for the second major of the year, the PGA Championship. This years PGA Championship takes place on the Kiawah Island Ocean Course designed by Pete Dye. The course is the longest in major championship history and should provide a challenge for the players this week, specifically the short hitters. Even though we have 156 players in the field, only 20-30 have an actual shot of winning here given the skillset needed to succeed. The PGA Championship was last held here back in 2012.
Tournament Information:
Dates: May 20, 2021- May 23, 2021
Location: Kiawah Island, South Carolina, USA
Course: Kiawah Island Ocean Course
Par: 72
Length: 7,876 yards
Stroke Index (2012): 74.57
Field/ Cut: 156 Players / Top 70 & Ties Make the Cut
Greens/ Fairways: Paspalum
Previous Winner (2020): Collin Morikawa
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
SG: Approach
SG: Around-the-Green
Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards
Fairways Gained
Bogey Avoidance
Picks (Outright):
Viktor Hovland (+2200 – FanDuel)
Risk: 0.35 to win 7.7
4th in SG: OTT, 1st in Scoring Average, Great recent form in the last 2 tournaments
Collin Morikawa (+3300 – Bet365)
Risk: 0.2 to win 6.6
1st in SG: Approach to Green, Great iron striker, 9th in Hit Fairways %
Daniel Berger (+3300 – PointsBet)
Risk 0.2 to win 6.6
6th in Bogey Avoidance, Solid distance and accuracy, Good SG: OTT and Approach
Abraham Ancer (+5000 – DraftKings)
Risk: 0.15 to win 7.5
Good SG: OTT and Approach, Great in Hit Fairway % and Bogey Avoidance
Joaquin Niemann (+7000 – PointsBet)
Risk: 0.1 to win 7
Good SG: OTT, Solid Hit Fairway %, Great in Scoring Average
Total Risk on Outrights: 1 Unit
Picks (Matchups):
Brooks Koepka over Dustin Johnson (+160)
Risk: 0.5 to win 0.8
Max Homa over Sam Burns (+140)
Risk: 0.5 to win 0.7
Patrick Reed over Patrick Cantlay (-110)
Risk: Risk 1.1 to win 1
Total Risk on Matchups: 2.1 Units
Total Risk on PGA Championship: 3.1 Units
You can follow me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting for all of your NHL, PGA, & Horse Racing Picks
Another great slate of NHL games tonight. We have 4 playoff games, and the final regular season game as the Canucks and Flames wrap up their seasons. The Northern Division playoffs finally get under way after a week delay with a matchup between the Oilers and the Jets.
Washington Capitals (+155) @ Boston Bruins (-180)
What a series this has been, eh? The Capitals took Game 1 and the Bruins respond with an overtime win in Game 2. The series travels to Boston for Game 3 as the Bruins look to keep the momentum going and take the series lead.
The Bruins have confirmed that Tuukka Rask will start in net tonight after starting the first two games of the series. Washington is expected to start Craig Anderson in net.
The Bruins outplayed the Capitals in Game 2 of the series, as they had an xGF(5v5) of 3.73 compared to Washington who had an xGF(5v5) of 1.64. The opening line for this game was around -160 and has since moved to -180 (BOS). The line may continue to move until puck drop as the Capitals are dealing with some injuries. Several players are expected to be game time decisions such as Oshie, Kuznetsov, Eller, and Samsonov. The moneyline for Boston just keeps on increasing each game. Its moved from -125 Game 1, to -130 Game 2, and now up -180 in Game 3. I just don’t agree with the odds for the game at all, I think the Capitals ml has some great value here especially if a few game time decisions play.
Pick: Washington Capitals ml, +155 (Risk 0.50 Unit) – Pointsbet
The Winnipeg Jets travel to Edmonton to take on the Oilers in the first game of the series. Edmonton is coming off a disappointing 2020 playoffs where they were upset in the qualifying round by the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Jets have confirmed that Connor Hellebuyck will start Game 1. The Oilers are expected to start Mike Smith but has yet to be confirmed.
The Oilers have dominated the Jets all season and come into this game as -175 favorites after the opening line shifted from -140. The Jets also just announced the Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nikolaj Ehlers are out for tonight. This announcement had some impact on the line as it has since shifted 5 cents. Connor McDavid has had the Jets number all season, specifically against Connor Hellebuyck. He has a dreadful 0.877 SV% against the Oilers this year. The Jets allow the 5th most high danger chances per 60 minutes (5v5) which doesn’t bode well with a struggling goalie. However, the issue for the Oilers is that their top 6 are the only ones who capitalize on those chances. The Oilers bottom forwards have contributed far and few between this year. Even with the Oilers not having solid depth, they should still take Game 1 with a better overall team that is led by the future 2021 NHL MVP.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers ml -155 (Risk 1.55 Units) – BetMGM
St. Louis Blues (+295) @ Colorado Avalanche (-360)
The Colorado Avalanche take on the Blues of St. Louis in Game 2 after a 4-1 win. The Blues and Avalanche went into the 3rd period tied but Colorado took over, led by the dynamic duo of N. MacKinnon and G. Landeskog. The Blues will look to rebound here and try to stay in this series against the President Trophy winners.
The Avalanche have confirmed that Philipp Grubauer will be in net after a solid performance in Game 1. The Blues have not confirmed their starting goalie tonight but Jordan Binnington was not at today’s morning skate indicating he may be out.
The closing line for Game 1 of this series was -320 (COL) and has moved past that number in Game 2 after being hammered early. The opening line for Game 2 was around -290/-300 depending on the book you’re using. Colorado finished the game with an xGF (5-5) of 2.91 compared to the Blues who had an xGF (5-5) of 1.23. Colorado flat out dominated Game 1 and were held in check until the third period behind the performance of Jordan Binnington. The Colorado moneyline offers no value, so I looked at some other bets to try and find some. The Avalanche average 1.39 GF in the 2P and concede an average of 0.63. The Blues on the other hand average 0.93 GF and 1.11 GA in the 2P. I think there’s some value in this line and worth a half a unit play especially since its looking like Binnington is out.
Well yesterday kinda sucked– I went 0-3 in my picks, that’s quite rare for me this season, but managed to land 2 live bets for those who follow me on Twitter. That was a nice way to get redemption but I expect better overall results tonight. The Hornets and Wizards really shit the bed Tuesday; hopefully these teams show a little more gusto.
Spurs/Grizzlies over 222.5 (-110), 2 units and Spurs +4 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. Things slow down in the playoffs usually, that’s true. Nerves and big moments fluster even the best teams and sometimes the best players, but I don’t think that’ll matter in this contest. The Spurs are a good defensive team, not a great one. The same can be said for the Grizzlies. As the season trudged on, both of these units saw considerable regression in their ability to prevent other teams from scoring. Memphis is 16th and San Antonio is 19th in points allowed for that reason. While Memphis is 6th in defensive efficiency, a damn good mark, that stat is often skewed by how many points they tend to score (they average 113.3 ppg and habitually eclipsed that total in the second half of the season). If there’s one area that Memphis really struggles, it’s in closing out games. They’re 21-17 ATS as a favorite but that’s also a skewed stat– the books never really gave the Grizzlies too much credit so covering their lines as a favorite wasn’t terribly difficult. If they were lined like the Suns or Nuggets or other elite teams in the Western Conference, it’d be a different story. Look at the Grizzlies schedule and you’ll see that blowouts are very rare. When they win it’s by 3 points or 5 points or 4 points etc. That’s probably why their point differential sits at +1, right smack-dab middle of the NBA pack. I think 4 points is too many for this team to cover.
The Spurs are the best ATS road team in the NBA, covering at a rate of 65.7% (23-12-1). That’s one reason why I like them tonight but it’s not the only reason. There’s a significant coaching advantage here: the Spurs’ Gregg Popovich vs. the Grizzlies’ Taylor Jenkins, and a big-time experience difference too. The Spurs are young overall but they have players that have competed in big games before: DeRozan, Mills, Gay. The Grizzlies are fresh-faced and eager and in my opinion one of the deeper rosters in the NBA. Ja Morant may be the best player on the floor, too. Still, the veteran leadership and coaching experience for San Antonio is a big mismatch.
It’s scary to bet on an underdog after last night’s games but I’m pulling the trigger. In what should be a high-scoring and competitive affair, give me the Spurs +4 and the over.
Lakers -5 (-115), 2 units: I know how many of you love to hate on King James, but the 10-time NBA Finals contender and face of the NBA appears to have out-smarted us all once again. There may not be a savvier player in the history of the game. After lamenting over the brief pause between NBA seasons due to the COVID year, it was obvious that the game was finally taking a toll on the 18 year pro, so Lebron chose to rest and treat his ailments through the final 2 months of the season. Flash forward to mid-May and now we see a refreshed and rejuvenated Lebron and wouldn’t you know it– team LAL is heading into the playoffs on a red-hot 5 game winning streak. Anthony Davis is finding his groove, Dennis Schroder is back and healthy, and Drummond, Kuzma, Caruso, Harrell, Gasol and all the Lakers skill-players are ready to roll. Look at LAL’s depth chart and you won’t see a single injury designation. In the words of good ol’ JR– “By gawd almighty, he’s done it again!” The Lakers just seem to find a way and in my opinion, all Western Conference teams should be afraid; very afraid.
But since they only managed to sneak into the 7th seed, that means they have to face the 8th seeded Warriors in the first play-in game. As hot as the Lakers are right now, the Warriors may be hotter. Golden State is riding a 6-game winning streak into tonight and the true MVP, Steph Curry, has never looked more confident. Golden State thrives on movement without the ball, most of which centers around Curry, and finding obstruction-free opportunities to get off shots without contest. The question is– can Steph and his supporting cast get open enough against the NBA’s #1 defense?
One thing that’s underrated about Lebron (I could say a ton here) is how adept he is on defense. The big man can literally cover anyone. We’ve seen him shut down players half his size like Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving (and Steph Curry, famously), and we’ve seen him take on and stuff big men, too. The Lakers are most dangerous in this game because of how they can confuse and overwhelm the Warriors on defense. While I think Curry won’t be completely stifled tonight, I actually still like his over points prop, the Lakers can and will limit him. That will put big responsibility on the shoulders of players like Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. Golden State will miss Kelly Oubre Jr.’s presence tonight, which I think is more significant than most people realize.
The Lakers don’t have that issue. No one in the NBA is more relaxed and poised than Lebron in big-game situations. That means that young, key contributors like Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Schroder can play without the same pressure on their back. In their collective mind– “Lebron will lead us if we mess up.” There’s no greater gift for a basketball player to have than calm and confidence entering a big game like this.
ATS records won’t help you tonight– the Lakers are 14-22 at home (38.9%) while the Warriors are 14-22 on the road. This game is about pride, momentum, and a team built to win championships. Golden State is small, quick, and proficient in perimeter shooting. The Lakers are big, methodical, exceptional on defense, stacked with great scorers, and they have the best leader on the court. At home, the Lakers poise and experience will be too much for the underdog Warriors. Bet on the Lakers and bet them without refrain.
