Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a HUGE show for you today! Patrick Gates is back to break down a MASSIVE Belmont Stakes! First, the guys get right into the NHL with some thoughts on the series and who might win the Conn Smythe. Next, we talk horse racing. Patrick and Kiev get into the weather, the favorites and sleepers for this HUGE race… We discuss how we are constructing out tickets as well as some thoughts on who is going to win this race. Then, Kiev goes solo to discuss some UFC 316. He talks the main card as well as a long shot that he like a lot in the under card. Plenty of Free Plays galore! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a HUGE show for you today! Patrick Gates is back to break down a MASSIVE Belmont Stakes! First, the guys get right into the NHL with some thoughts on the series and who might win the Conn Smythe. Next, we talk horse racing. Patrick and Kiev get into the weather, the favorites and sleepers for this HUGE race. We discuss how we are constructing out tickets as well as some thoughts on who is going to win this race. Then, Kiev goes solo to discuss some UFC 316. He talks the main card as well as a long shot that he like a lot in the under card. Plenty of Free Plays galore! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is set for Saturday, June 7th, continuing a legacy that dates back to 1867. As the final jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont follows the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, offering one last—and often most demanding—test for the nation’s top 3-year-olds.
Often called the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes is steeped in tradition and excitement. From the iconic blanket of white carnations draped over the winner to the playing of “New York, New York” before the gates open, the race captures the spirit and history of American horse racing. It’s where legends like Secretariat made history with his record-breaking 31-length victory in 1973, and where recent stars like American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) sealed their Triple Crown triumphs.
While the race is traditionally held at Belmont Park over the demanding distance of 1 1/2 miles, the 2025 edition will once again be run at Saratoga Race Course, covering a slightly shorter 1 1/4 miles due to the track’s smaller dimensions. After this, the Belmont Stakes will return to its iconic home at Belmont Park in 2026.
For deeper insights, historical context, and expert picks, don’t miss our latest podcast episode previewing this year’s Belmont Stakes.
— The OddsBreakers (@theoddsbreakers) June 5, 2025
Race Information:
Date: June 7th, 2025
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 13
Post Time: 7:04 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Mile
Purse: $2,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 13 & 14, Leg B Acorn, NY Met, Woody Stephens/Belmont Doubles, Leg F 2-Day Pick 6
TV Schedule:
FS1 – 10:30 AM – 2:30 PM ET
FOX – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
Previous Winners & Odds:
2024: Dornoch
Odds: 15-1
2023: Arcangelo
Odds: 8-1
2022: Mo Donegal
Odds: 5-2
2021: Essential Quality
Odds: 2-1
2020: Tiz the Law
Odds: 6-5
2019: Sir Winston
Odds: 12-1
2018: Justify *
Odds: 4-5
* Justify was a Tripple Crown Winner
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
Most Wins by a Trainer:
8 – James G. Rowe Sr. (1883, 1884, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910, 1913)
Most Wins by a Jockey:
6 – Jim McLaughlin (1882, 1883, 1884, 1886, 1887, 1888) and Eddie Arcaro (1941, 1942, 1945, 1948, 1952, 1955)
Most Wins by an Owner:
6 – Belair Stud (1930, 1932, 1935, 1936, 1939, 1955) and James R. Keene (1879, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910)
Belmont Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:
Here are the 2025 Belmont Stakes post positions, along with historical data for each gate since the starting gate was introduced to the race in 1905:
Post Position
Starts
Wins
Win %
Wins Since 2000
Last Winner
2025 Belmont Entrant
1
118
24
20.3%
2
Justify (2018)
Hill Road
2
118
13
11.0%
2
Essential Quality (2021)
Sovereignty
3
116
16
13.8%
4
Arcangelo (2023)
Rodriguez
4
110
10
9.1%
2
Summer Bird (2009)
Uncaged
5
102
15
14.7%
2
American Pharoah (2015)
Crudo
6
97
9
9.3%
2
Dornoch (2024)
Baeza
7
84
14
16.7%
3
Sir Winston (2019)
Journalism
8
74
7
9.5%
2
Tiz the Law (2020)
Heart of Honor
9
57
4
7.0%
2
Afleet Alex (2005)
None
10
40
1
2.5%
0
Thunder Gulch (1995)
None
11
28
3
10.7%
2
Tonalist (2014)
None
12
11
1
9.1%
1
Palace Malice (2013)
None
13
7
1
14.3%
1
Creator (2016)
None
14
3
0
0.0%
0
None
None
15
1
0
0.0%
0
None
None
Field:
Post
Horse Name
Jockey
Trainer
Odds
1
Hill Road
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Chad Brown
10-1
2
Sovereignty
Junior Alvarado
Bill Mott
2-1
3
Rodriguez
Mike Smith
Bob Baffert
6-1
4
Uncaged
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
30-1
5
Crudo
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
15-1
6
Baeza
Flavien Prat
John Shirreffs
4-1
7
Journalism
Umberto Rispoli
Michael McCarthy
8-5
8
Heart of Honor
Saffie Osborne
Jamie Osborne
30-1
Horse Preview
Hill Road
Name: Hill Road
ML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Amo Racing USA
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: Exotic Notion (Lemon Drop Kid)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
0
2
2025
2
1
0
1
2024
3
1
0
1
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
10May25-Aqueduct
1 1/8 Miles
GIII Peter Pan
1st
8Mar25-Tampa
1 1/16 Miles
GIII Tampa Bay Derby
3rd
1Nov24-Del Mar
1 1/16 Miles
G1 BC Juvenile
3rd
Sovereignty
Name: Sovereignty
ML Odds: 2-1
Owner(s): Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Dam: Crowned (Bernardini)
Sire: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
3
2
0
2025
3
2
1
0
2024
3
1
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
3May25-Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles
GI Kentucky Derby
1st
29Mar2-Gulfstream Park
1 1/8 Miles
GI Florida Derby
2nd
1Mar25-Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
GII Fountain of Youth
1st
Rodriguez
Name: Rodriguez
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, et al.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Dam: Cayala (Cherokee Run)
Sire: Authentic (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
2
1
2025
4
2
1
1
2024
1
0
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
5Apr25-Aqueduct
1 1/8 Miles
GII Wood Memorial Stakes
1st
1Mar25-Santa Anita
1 1/16 Miles
GII San Felipe Stakes
3rd
1Feb25-Santa Anita
1 Mile
GIII Robert B Lewis
2nd
Uncaged
Name: Uncaged
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): WinStar Farm LLC and Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Dark Nile (Pioneerof the Nile)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
2
0
0
2025
3
1
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
1
1
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
10May25-Aqueduct
1 1/8 Miles
GIII Peter Pan
6th
6Apr25-Aqueduct
1 Mile
OC 100k/N1X-N
1st
2Mar25-Gulfstream Park
6 Furlongs
OC 75k/N1X-N
4th
Crudo
Name: Crudo
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Bobby Flay and James Ventura
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Dam: Blossomed (Deputy Minister)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
2
0
0
2025
3
2
0
0
2024
0
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
17May25-Pimlico
1 1/16 Miles
Sir Barton Stakes 100k
1st
19Apr25-Keeneland
7 Furlongs
Md Sp Wt 110k
1st
8Feb25-Gulfstream Park
6 Furlongs
Md Sp Wt 70k
4th
Baeza
Name: Baeza
ML Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Puca (Big Brown)
Sire: McKinzie (Street Sense)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
2
1
2025
4
1
2
1
2024
1
0
0
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
3May25-Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles
GI Kentucky Derby
3rd
5Apr25-Santa Anita
1 1/8 Miles
GI Santa Anita Derby
2nd
14Feb25-Santa Anita
1 Mile
Md Sp Wt 60k
1st
Journalism
Name: Journalism
ML Odds: 8-5
Owner(s): Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, et al.
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Dam: Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
5
1
1
2025
4
3
1
0
2024
3
2
0
1
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
17May25-Pimlico
1 3/16 Miles
GI Preakness Stakes
1st
3May25-Churchill Downs
1 1/4 Miles
GI Kentucky Derby
2nd
5Apr25-Santa Anita
1 1/8 Miles
GI Santa Anita Derby
1st
Heart of Honor (GB)
Name: Heart of Honor (GB)
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Jim And Claire Limited
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Dam: Ruby Love*Chi (Scat Daddy)
Sire: Honor A. P. (Honor Code)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
7
2
4
0
2025
5
1
3
0
2024
2
1
1
0
Saratoga Race Course
0
0
0
0
Date-Track
Length
Race
Results
17May25-Pimlico
1 3/16 Miles
GI Preakness Stakes
5th
5Apr25-Meydan (UAE)
1 3/16 Miles
GII UAE Derby
2nd
21Feb25-Meydan (UAE)
1 3/16 Miles
Al Bastakiya Stakes
2nd
Previous Races Against Fellow Entrants:
Date-Track
Race
Results
May 10th, 2025 – PIM
GI Preakness
(1st) Journalism, (5th) Heart of Honor
May 10th, 2025 – BAQ
GIII Peter Pan Stakes
(1st) Hill Road, (6th) Uncaged
May 3rd, 2025 – CD
GI Kentucky Derby
(1st) Sovereignty, (2nd) Journalism, (3rd) Baeza
April 5th, 2025 – SA
GI Santa Anita Derby
(1st) Journalism, (2nd) Baeza
March 11th, 2025 – SA
GII San Felipe Stakes
(1st) Journalism, (3rd) Rodriguez
January 4th, 2025 – SA
Md Sp Wt 60k
(1st) Rodriguez, (2nd) Baeza
Projected Pace:
Pacesetter
(3) Rodriguez
(5) Crudo
Press the Pace/ Stalkers
(4) Baeza
(6) Uncaged
Closers
(1) Hill Road
(2) Sovereignty
(7) Journalism
(8) Heart of Honor
Race Breakdown
When handicapping this year’s Belmont Stakes, the race feels like it runs through three—maybe four—serious contenders. But before we dive into the top threats, let’s first break down the horses I’ll be against on race day: Hill Road, Uncaged, and Heart of Honor.
Tosses
Hill Road made his U.S. debut with promise, finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and later winning the Peter Pan Stakes. While the Peter Pan has produced past Belmont winners, I’m not convinced Hill Road possesses the late kick or stamina to match the elite closers in this field. He’s improved, but not enough to factor against this group.
Uncaged hasn’t progressed since his debut win at Saratoga last summer—that remains his highest speed figure. He finished sixth in the Peter Pan and seems better suited to muddy tracks, where both his wins came. Unless the skies open up on Saturday, he looks completely outclassed.
Heart of Honor was fifth in the Preakness in his North American debut but was never a serious factor. While he’s been consistent overseas, he lacks the cruising speed and closing ability needed to keep up with this field. He’s an easy toss for me.
Exotic Players
Crudo is lightly raced but interesting. He’s won back-to-back starts, including the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day, and has shown steady improvement each time out. He’s bred for the distance—his sire Justify won the Belmont en route to a Triple Crown—and while he’s untested against top-level stakes company, he’s trending the right way. A logical underneath player.
Rodriguez could be dangerous if the race shape falls his way. He won the Wood Memorial in front-running fashion and has had time to recover from a minor setback that kept him out of the Derby and Preakness. If the pace is more moderate than expected, he could steal it on the front end. A live longshot with a proven foundation.
Main Contenders
The top tier features Sovereignty, Baeza, and Journalism—the three most credentialed runners in this field. Sovereignty enters off his Kentucky Derby win, Baeza finished a strong third after a wide trip, and Journalism comes off a gritty Preakness score. Any of them could win with the right setup, but with all three likely to take significant money, I’m more inclined to use them in exotics than single out one as a clear winner.
Race 12: #2 Integration, #4 Carson’s Run, #6 Spirit of St Louis
Race 13: #2 Sovereignty, #7 Journalism
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The NFC West The NFC West was full of surprises in the 2025 season. The first surprise was the demise of the San Francisco 49ers who became decimated with injuries. This bad luck started right away when they hid Christian McCaffery’s injury in the preseason, thus screwing over fantasy football fans all around the globe. The Seattle Seahawks were much better than expected, while the Arizona Cardinals had some growing pains with their young group of guys. The Rams stole the division, and literally were a few plays away from beating the Eagles in the playoffs in the snow. This season, the schedule works out quite well with this division getting to play the NFC South, and the AFC South which are widely considered the two worst divisions in football. The Market seems to think that the 49ers are the team to beat, but I am just not so sure of that. Let’s dig in and find out why.
Key Draft Picks: TE Terrance Ferguson, Edge Josaiah Steward and a bunch of hope.
Summary: After making the playoffs and winning this division in the 2025 season, I am pretty frustrated with this Rams team as they didn’t do jack in this offseason. I feel like they are the west coast Packers. Great coaching with a bad front office. Maybe they are still celebrating their super bowl from a few years back. Anyways, this Rams team was quite lucky to achieve 10 wins last year with their Pythagorean win total showing just below eight. This team ranked a modest 15th in offensive EPA, and only 23rd on defensive EPA. The clear reason for these wins was just some great coaching by Sean McVey and clutch performances by quarterback Matthew Stafford. Now this team loses a big leader in Cooper Kupp. Don’t get me wrong, he was already on the senior slide with a ton of regression to the mean, but he at least was a great sideline and locker room guy. Signing Davante Adams feels a lot like that could be very good or just very bad. I never thought of him as a good leader, and the complaining could start as early as week one. The only bright spot on this defense was edge rusher Jared Verse. The rest of the guys are very mid-to lower end talent. Quarterback Matthew Stafford isn’t getting any younger, yet he probably still has some left in the tank. Some good news with the schedule is that the Rams net +10 days rest which ranks third in the league. I will tread cautiously for the first few weeks with this Rams team, but it certainly won’t surprise me if this team takes a step back.
My Number: 8.99
Action – No Play
LA Rams power rating: 2
2. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.07
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Green Bay, @ Dallas, @ Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Roy Lopez, DT Khyiris Tonga, DT Naquan Jones, OLB Kyzier White, G Will Hernandez
Key additions: DE Josh Sweat, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, QB Jacoby Brissett, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, DE Calais Campbell, OLB Mykal Walker
Key Draft Picks: DT Walter Nolen, CB Will Johnson, Edge Jordan Burch, LB Cody Simon, CB Denzel Burke
Summary: I like the outlook for this team! These Arizona Cardinals only took third place in their division, yet they had the highest Pythagorean win total out of all of their rivals at 9.07. Rich Gannon is building a program there that I think can at least get this team to the playoffs, if not win the whole division. Arizona literally didn’t lose anyone to free agency that was worth a whole lot to the team. One might think that their run game takes a hit from losing their defensive tackles, but they were already well below average in that category ranking 25th in opponent rush EPA. Signing guys like Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson should more than fill in that gap. The draft pick of defensive tackle Walter Nolan was a great move. Getting cornerback Will Johnson late in the second round was a steal in my opinion. Hopefully, newly acquired linebacker Baron Browning can have a solid year and stay healthy. The offense that ranked 10th in EPA per play should take a step forward now with healthy running backs, and a more seasoned offensive line. We also have to remember that the Cardinals have a top three tight end in Trey McBride as well as a huge talent in Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver, who should take a step forward. Quarterback Kyle Murray knows that it’s his time to shine. I like Rich Gannon, and this team should win enough games to make the playoffs if not win the division.
My Number: 10.25
Action – Cardinals win NFC West +475 – .5 stars & over 8.5 wins +100 – 1.5 stars (DK)
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: 2
3.San Francisco 49ers –
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 7.28
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ NY Giants, @ Browns, vs Bears
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Deebo Samuel, LB Dre Greenlaw, G Aaron Banks, CB Charvarius Ward, DT Javon Hargrave, LT Jaylon Moore, S Talanoa Hufanga, Edge Leonard Floyd, DT Maliek Collins, RB Elijah Mitchell, ILB De’Vondre Campbell, G Jon Feliciano
Key additions: DC Robert Saleh, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, WR DeMarcus Robinson, S Siran Neal, S Jason Pinnock, ILB Luke Gifford, CB Tre Brown
Key Draft Picks: Edge Mykel Williams, DL Alfred Collins, LB Nick Martin
Summary: Are we sure that the 49ers are the best team in the NFC West? Was last year a bunch of bad luck? It’s hard to turn against Kyle Shanahan, but this team lost a ton in the offseason, and has had maybe the worst draft out of all of the NFL teams. If money only grew on trees, this team could keep all of their talent. The 49ers lost some of their best guys at every section of their defense. General Manager John Lynch decided to pay Fred Warner which was maybe warranted, yet comes with an opportunity cost of losing LBs Dre Greenlaw and De’Vondre Campbell. Greenlaw didn’t play much anyways due to injury, but he was still a big part of their 11.5 win projection as of last season. Christian McCaffery comes back healthy, but how long can that last? He isn’t exactly a spring chicken himself. Losing Deebo Samuel in that trade didn’t exactly get them back any real value minus a money grab. The 49ers, last season, mistakenly paid Brandon Aiyuk which in turn, forced Deebo Samuel out. Deebo has his own issues, but he was also a great gadget guy who was great running the ball and very hard to tackle. The 49ers do not have a real number one wide receiver in my opinion. Jauan Jennings is every bit as good as Aiyuk, and I feel that they are really the same type of guy. Maybe the great coaching of Kyle Shanahan, and Robert Saleh, who is back as defensive coordinator can make up for what they lost. The 49ers finally paid their quarterback Brock Purdy. I don’t love this situation either. I like Purdy, but I honestly think that he was a product of great coaching similar to what we see in Green Bay. This team was in much better shape when they had more money to spread around. Mac Jones might even be a better quarterback if he gets his Alabama type confidence back. Now for the good. The 49ers have by far the easiest schedule in football. The good thing about having bad injury luck and taking fourth place in your own division is getting a fourth place schedule. Not only that, the 49ers net a +9 days of rest which is much different than what we saw last season. We also much remember that coaching is huge. Kyle Shanahan can make an average player look great. At the end of the day, this 49ers team is very top heavy. If they can stay healthy, they will a bunch of games and maybe the division. If they once again have some rough injury luck, they can be in a lot of trouble due to depth issues. I can only look under the win total at 10.5.
My Number: 9.14
Action: Under 10.5 wins -130 – .5 stars
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 2
4. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -140
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.7
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Pittsburgh, @Washington, vs Minnesota
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, DE Dre’Mont Jones, DT Roy Robertson-Harris, G Laken Tomlinson, WR Tyler Lockett, CB Tre Brown, S Rayshawn Jenkins, RT George Fant
Key additions: OC Klint Kubiak, QB Sam Darnold, WR Cooper Kupp, DE DeMarcus Lawrence, QB Drew Lock, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, T Josh Jones, DT Jonathan Hankins
Key draft picks: T Grey Zabel, S Nick Emmanwori, TE Elijay Arroyo, QB Jalen Milroe, DL Rylie Mills, WR Tory Horton
Summary: I do not quite know what some teams are thinking. After last season, It became clear to everyone that Geno Smith wasn’t in the plans going forward for coach Mike McDonald. So instead they bring in Sam Darnold? This is a lot like trading your old golf cart for an old moped. Last season, according to the Pythagorean win total of 8.7 wins, the Seahawks over-achieved winning ten. I do think that MacDonald has had a very good start to his coaching career, especially on the defensive side, but I do not understand the moves in free agency. Let’s start with the quarterback. New quarterback Sam Darnold only looked great last year because he had a great coach, with having the best pass catchers in football. The real Darnold came out in crunch time at the end of the season. I do not think that new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is going to get nearly the same production. Next, the Seahawks sign two washed up players in WR Cooper Kupp, and DE Demarcus Lawrence. For the amount that these two guys were paid, I do not think that we see nearly the same production as they had in the past. Kupp has been rendered with injuries after his super bowl run with the Rams. He is now average at best. DeMarcus Lawrence is so checked out of the NFL game that the Seahawks will be lucky if he even shows up to practice. My other big concern is Seattle’s offensive line. Moving on from George Fant is a big statement, but do we know that their first pick in the draft in North Dakota State’s Tackle Grey Zabel can even play in the NFL? Another concern is who will be catching the football. The Seahawks lost their top wide receiver in DK Metcalf, and their most trustworthy wide receiver in Tyler Lockett. This with the new quarterback is such a big change to the offense. I like JSN a lot, but he is also quite injury prone to be considered at all reliable. The good thing for the Seahawks is that their defensive line should be solid. I like the draft pick of Riley Mills and I think that he can become a starter. The defense on this team looks solid and the Seahawks will have to rely on that phase to win most of their games. The schedule looks ok, but that also depends on your thoughts on the rest of this division. I remain somewhat bearish to neutral on this team.
Orioles: Gunnar Henderson (.262 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI), Ryan O’Hearn (9 HR, 23 RBI)
Mariners: Cal Raleigh (23 HR, 45 RBI), J.P. Crawford (.526 AVG last 5 games)
Betting Odds:
Moneyline: Mariners -120 | Orioles +100
Total Runs (Over/Under): 8.5
Weather:
A crisp 66 degrees with winds blowing left to right at 4.5 mph
Prediction:
This should be a fun matchup for us as both of these pitchers are not so good. What is good is that the Mariner’s bullpen ranks 22nd to the Orioles that rank 25th. Ok, well, both not that good. What is good for real this time is that the Mariners rank 6th in weighted runs created + while the Orioles are 8th. This is close, but also factor in home advantage and the number should be around -130. Let’s grab the -110 on Seattle tonight as I see value.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to break down the AFC East & The AFC West. First, Kiev get’s into some house cleaning with some sports talk in general. Next, Kiev gets into the AFC North & South. Which teams are the favorites? Which teams are looking like contenders? Which teams are pretenders? Futures, Win totals, free agency & draft. We have some fun plays and best bets! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The PGA TOUR makes its annual trip north this week for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, with TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course) making its debut as host. As Canada’s national championship, the RBC Canadian Open is one of the longest-running events in golf and carries a deep sense of tradition, pride, and purpose—serving as both a showcase for Canadian talent and a key stop on the TOUR calendar.
— TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (@TPC_Toronto) June 2, 2025
Held just one week before the U.S. Open, this event offers players a prime opportunity to fine-tune their game ahead of the year’s third major. The North Course at TPC Toronto—a Par 70 track stretching over 7,300 yards—was recently renovated by Ian Andrew and now presents a modern, championship-caliber test. It rewards power off the tee, but players will also need to be sharp with their irons and creative around the greens to contend.
In this preview, we’ll break down the course setup, highlight the key stats to focus on, and reveal our favorite betting picks and values for the week. Let’s dive in.
Grand Reserve Golf Club – 6,500 sq. ft. – Puerto Rico Open
TPC Twin Cities – 6,500 sq. ft. – 3M Open
TV Information (all times ET):
Round 1: Thursday, April 3rd, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 6:45 AM – 3:00 PM
Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, April 4th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 6:45 AM – 3:00 PM
Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, April 5th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 7:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, April 6th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 7:45 AM – 1:00 PM
Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Weather:
Course/ Tournament History:
The RBC Canadian Open is one of the most storied tournaments in golf, dating back to 1904. It stands as the third-oldest continuously running event on the PGA TOUR, behind only The Open Championship and the U.S. Open. Over the years, it has been hosted at a variety of prestigious venues across Canada, celebrating the country’s rich golf heritage.
Early editions of the tournament were played at historic clubs like the Royal Montreal Golf Club and Toronto Golf Club, which rotated between their Quebec and Ontario locations. As the event gained stature, it moved to iconic courses such as Hamilton Golf and Country Club, St. George’s Golf and Country Club, and Glen Abbey Golf Course—the latter hosting a record 30 times between 1977 and 2018.
The Canadian Open has welcomed some of the game’s greatest champions, including Tiger Woods, Arnold Palmer, and Lee Trevino. But for Canadian fans, the tournament holds special emotional significance. That was never more evident than in 2023, when Nick Taylor drained a dramatic 72-foot eagle putt in a playoff to become the first Canadian to win the event in 69 years—an instant classic that is now etched in Canadian sports history.
The RBC Canadian Open has redone its logo to include a silhouette of Nick Taylor’s putter toss following his 72-foot eagle putt last year (to become the first Canadian in seven decades to win Canada’s Open Championship).
To honor Taylor’s historic moment, Golf Canada and RBC introduced a refreshed tournament logo featuring a silhouette of his iconic putter toss—a lasting tribute to one of the most memorable finishes in golf.
Now sponsored by the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian Open continues to blend tradition with innovation. The tournament often serves as a crucial lead-in to the U.S. Open and has recently rotated between both historic and modern venues—including Oakdale, Hamilton, and Royal Montreal—to keep the event nationally representative and globally relevant.
That legacy takes a new step forward in 2025 as the RBC Canadian Open heads to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the first time in its 121-year history. Located in Caledon, Ontario, the North Course recently underwent extensive renovations and will present a 7,389-yard parkland-style challenge, with wide fairways, large undulating greens, and strategic design that rewards power and precision.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Venue
Location
First
Last
Times
Royal Montreal Golf Club
Two venues
1904
2014
10
Dorval, Quebec
1904
1950
(5)
Île-Bizard, Quebec
1975
2014
(5)
Toronto Golf Club
Two venues
1905
1927
5
Toronto, Ontario
1905
1909
(2)
Mississauga, Ontario
1914
1927
(3)
Royal Ottawa Golf Club
Aylmer, Quebec
1906
1911
2
Lambton Golf Club
Toronto, Ontario
1907
1941
4
Rosedale Golf Club
Toronto, Ontario
1912
1928
2
Hamilton Golf and Country Club
Ancaster, Ontario
1919
2024
7
Rivermead Golf Club
Aylmer, Quebec
1920
1920
1
Mt. Bruno Golf Club
St. Bruno, Quebec
1922
1924
2
Lakeview Golf Club
Mississauga, Ontario
1923
1934
2
Kanawaki Golf Club
Kahnawake, Quebec
1929
1929
1
Mississaugua Golf & Country Club
Mississauga, Ontario
1931
1974
6
Ottawa Hunt and Golf Club
Ottawa, Ontario
1932
1932
1
St. George’s Golf and Country Club
Etobicoke, Toronto, Ontario
1933
2022
6
Summerlea Golf Club
Montreal, Quebec
1935
1935
1
St. Andrews Club
Toronto, Ontario
1936
1937
2
Riverside Country Club
Rothesay, New Brunswick
1939
1939
1
Scarboro Golf and Country Club
Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario
1940
1963
4
Thornhill Golf Club
Thornhill, Ontario
1945
1945
1
Beaconsfield Golf Club
Montreal, Quebec
1946
1956
2
Shaughnessy Golf & Country Club
Vancouver, British Columbia
1948
2011
4
St. Charles Country Club
Winnipeg, Manitoba
1952
1952
1
Point Grey Golf and Country Club
Vancouver, British Columbia
1954
1954
1
Weston Golf and Country Club
Toronto, Ontario
1955
1955
1
Westmount Golf and Country Club
Kitchener, Ontario
1957
1957
1
Royal Mayfair Golf and Country Club
Edmonton, Alberta
1958
1958
1
Islesmere Golf and Country Club
Montreal, Quebec
1959
1959
1
Niakwa Country Club
Winnipeg, Manitoba
1961
1961
1
Le Club Laval-sur-le-Lac
Laval-sur-le-Lac, Quebec
1962
1962
1
Pine Grove Golf and Country Club
St. Luc, Quebec
1964
1969
2
Montreal Municipal Golf Club
Montreal, Quebec
1967
1967
1
London Hunt and Country Club
London, Ontario
1970
1970
1
Richelieu Valley Golf and CC
Ste.-Julie, Quebec
1971
1973
2
Cherry Hill Club
Ridgeway, Ontario
1972
1972
1
Essex Golf & Country Club
Windsor, Ontario
1976
1976
1
Glen Abbey Golf Course
Oakville, Ontario
1977
2018
30
Angus Glen Golf Club
Markham, Ontario
2002
2007
2
Oakdale Golf & Country Club
Toronto, Ontario
2023
2023
1
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
2008-2019, 2022–Present
RBC Canadian Open
1994–2005
Bell Canadian Open
1904–1993, 2006–2007
Canadian Open
Tournament Records:
Most Wins at Event:
4 – Leo Diegel (1924, 1925, 1928, 1929)
72-Hole Record:
258, Rory McIlroy (Hamilton Golf & Country Club, 2019)
18-Hole Record:
60, Carl Pettersson (Round 3, 2010 at St. George’s G&CC), Justin Rose (Round 4, 2022 at St. George’s G&CC)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally designed by Doug Carrick in 2001 and renovated by Ian Andrew ahead of the 2025 season, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course) presents a Par 70 layout featuring four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s. Measuring 7,389 yards, it ranks as the fifth-longest course on the PGA TOUR, favoring distance over precision off the tee with fairways averaging 37 yards wide—the 13th widest on Tour. The greens average 6,500 square feet, putting a premium on accurate approach play, while the 48 bunkers scattered across the course are among the fewest seen at any TOUR stop.
The Par 3s vary from 144 to 237 yards, testing a wide range of tee shots. Most notably, the 14th hole will serve as this year’s “Rink” hole—a nod to Canada’s national pastime. Originally introduced at Glen Abbey in 2017, the hockey-themed setup brings a unique atmosphere and fan experience to the tournament.
Hole 11 – 225 Yards
A heroic shot is required to carry the water and hit this peninsula green. Tee shots played out safely left land on a steep, fescue-covered hill that introduces an uncomfortable recovery shot with water waiting long.
Hole 14 – 144 Yards
A signature par 3 and ‘The Rink’ during the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, 14 features a stunning vista of Caledon’s rolling hills and plays downhill to a punchbowl green surrounded by deep greenside bunkers.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course) features twelve Par 4s, most of which fall between 400 and 450 yards in length. The shortest is the drivable 6th hole at 350 yards, while the longest is the demanding 17th, stretching out to 530 yards.
Hole 5 – 497 Yards
Set against a right-to-left slope, a set of fairway bunkers on the right side pinch in to protect the optimal approach angle to a saddle green.
Hole 15 – 434 Yards
A dramatic dogleg right offers a choice off the tee, with a more aggressive line down the right setting up a short approach – or even a chance of driving the green.
The course features just two Par 5s—No. 1 and No. 18—both of which are reachable in two shots, offering prime scoring opportunities to start and finish the round.
Hole 1 – 542 Yards
An opening par-5 with a slight right-to-left dogleg against a left-to-right sloping fairway asks players to shape their tee shot or bring the wooded area to the left into play in order to set up an optimal approach angle.
Hole 18 – 581 Yards
An unforgettable home hole starts with a risk-reward tee shot over cavernous bunkers down the right. Tee shots that successfully make the carry are rewarded by a kicker slope, while a shortgrass runoff area in front of the green send poorly-struck approaches to a watery grave.
The RBC Canadian Open takes place at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North). Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Champ
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Luke Clanton
Michael Thorbjornsen
Rico Hoey
Rory McIlroy
Joseph Bramlett
Corey Conners
Ludvig Aberg
Erik Van Rooyen
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach play will be pivotal this week with green complexes averaging 6,500 sq. ft. Players who can control spin and trajectory will have an easier time generating scoring chances.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Henrik Norlander
Corey Conners
Eric Cole
Brian Campbell
Shane Lowry
Joel Dahmen
Rory McIlroy
John Pak
Emiliano Grillo
Thorbjorn Olesen
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
With firm conditions expected and relatively few bunkers (48 total), solid scrambling could separate contenders from pretenders. Players who can get up and down from tricky lies around the green will avoid costly bogeys.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Matt Wallace
Matteo Manassero
Beau Hossler
Aaron Baddeley
Sungjae Im
Davis Riley
Alejandro Tosti
Byeong Hun An
Peter Malnati
Patrick Rodgers
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass-Poa Annua)
The putting surfaces are a Bentgrass-Poa Annua mix cut to .100”, which tends to reward players comfortable on mixed turf types. A hot putter here can make all the difference.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Vincent Whaley
Taylor Montgomery
Sam Burns
Mackenzie Hughes
Pierceson Coody
Brian Campbell
Harry Hall
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Cristobal Del Solar
Ben Silverman
Driving Distance
Given the course’s length and minimal fairway penalty, raw distance is a major asset. Those who can consistently carry it past 300 while avoiding major trouble will find extra birdie opportunities.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Champ
Brandon Matthews
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Rory McIlroy
Gordon Sargent
Jesper Svensson
Tim Widing
Trevor Cone
Michael Thorbjornsen
Pierceson Coody
Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards
Three of the four Par 3s play over 225 yards, requiring long irons into firm greens. Success on these holes will be crucial for keeping momentum and avoiding blow-ups.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Paul Peterson
Chandler Phillips
Luke Clanton
Rory McIlroy
Trace Crowe
Max Homa
Matt McCarty
Vincent Whaley
Luke List
Par 4 Scoring
TPC Toronto (North) features twelve Par 4s, most falling between 400–450 yards. Managing these with consistent tee-to-green play is essential for a good scorecard.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Alex Noren
Matt Wallace
Luke Clanton
Corey Conners
Keith Mitchell
Harry Hall
Henrik Norlander
Roger Sloan
Shane Lowry
Birdies or Better Gained
With only two Par 5s and a handful of drivable Par 4s, capitalizing on scoring chances is key.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Mattias Schmid
Keith Mitchell
Luke Clanton
Rory McIlroy
Justin Rose
Davis Riley
Sam Burns
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Alex Noren
Harry Hall
Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards
A large share of approach shots will fall into this range, especially on the many mid-length Par 4s. Players dialed in from this distance will generate more scoring opportunites.
Leaders in the Proximity 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Mattias Schmid
Karl Vilips
Antoine Rozner
Henrik Norlander
Carson Young
Alejandro Tosti
Taylor Pendrith
Will Gordon
William Mouw
Joel Dahmen
The Field:
The 2025 RBC Canadian Open will feature a field of 156 players, with eight of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Winner – U.S. Open
Winner – PGA Championship
Winner – THE PLAYERS Championship
Winner – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Winner – Tournament Winner in the Past Year
Career Money Exemption
Sponsor Exemption: DPWT
Sponsor’s Exemption – PGA
Sponsor’s Exemption – Unrestricted
Sponsor’s Exemption – PGA
Open Qualifying
Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Major Medical Extension.
Leading Points Winner from DP World Tour
PGA TOUR University Accelerated – Current Season
Top 10 and Ties from the Previous Event
DP World Tour / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category – Reordered
No 1 player PGA TOUR University (current year)
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Robert MacIntyre (2024), Nick Taylor (2023), Rory McIlroy (2022, 2019), Brandt Snedeker (2013)
Debutants in the Field:
Alejandro Tosti, Antoine Rozner, Barend Botha, Brett Webster, Cougar Collins, Cristian DiMarco, Cristobal Del Solar, Danny Walker, David Ford, Davis Riley, Frankie Capan III, Gordon Sargent, Hunter Thomson, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Suber, Jeremy Paul, Jesper Svensson, John Pak, Johnny Keefer, Josh Goldenberg, Kaito Onishi, Karl Vilips, Kevin Velo, Kristoffer Ventura, Kurt Kitayama, Luke Clanton, Mason Andersen, Matt McCarty, Matteo Manassero, Matthew Javier, Matthew Riedel, Matthew Scobie, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Goodwin, Paul Peterson, Paul Waring, Philip Knowles, Quade Cummins, Ricky Castillo, Steven Fisk, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Taylor Montgomery, Thomas Detry, Thomas Rosenmueller, Tim Widing, Tyler Mawhinney, Vince Covello, Wei-Hsuan Wang, Will Chandler, William Mouw
Players with Canadian ties in the Field:
Birthplace:
Matthew Anderson – Mississauga, Ontario
Cougar Collins – Caledon, Ontario
Corey Conners – Listowel, Ontario
Myles Creighton – Digby, Nova Scotia
A.J. Ewart – Coquitlam, British Columbia
Adam Hadwin – Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan
David Hearn – Brampton, Ontario
Wes Heffernan – Calgary, Alberta
Mark Hoffman – Wasaga Beach, Ontario
Mackenzie Hughes – Dundas, Ontario
Matthew Javier – Toronto, Ontario
Richard T. Lee – Toronto, Ontario
Justin Matthews – Little Britain, Ontario
Ashton McCulloch – Kingston, Ontario
Taylor Pendrith – Richmond Hill, Ontario
Matthew Scobie – Ajax, Ontario
Ben Silverman – Thornhill, Ontario
Roger Sloan – Calgary, Alberta
Adam Svensson – Surrey, British Columbia
Nick Taylor – Winnipeg, Manitoba
Hunter Thomson – Calgary, Alberta
Brett Webster – Vancouver, British Columbia
Mike Weir – Sarnia, Ontario
Exemptions:
Matthew Anderson – Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16) – Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Price: 100-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Robert MacIntyre
28th
18th
43rd
7th
1st
2023: Nick Taylor (-17) – Oakdale Golf & Country Club
Price:66-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Nick Taylor
32nd
3rd
5th
15th
10th
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19) – St. George’s Golf & Country Club
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy
6th
1st
5th
4th
7th
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22) – Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy
1st
1st
5th
6th
6th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Robert MacIntyre
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T13 – Myrtle Beach Classic (PGA)
MC – CJ CUP Byron Nelson (PGA)
T8 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
2023: Nick Taylor
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T41 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T15 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
2022: Rory McIlroy
T18 – the memorial Tournament (PGA)
8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
5 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
2 – The Masters (MAJ)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
2019: Rory McIlroy
MC – the memorial Tournament (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T8 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T21 – The Masters (MAJ)
T9 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Robert MacIntyre
Tournament Debut
2023: Nick Taylor
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
St. George’s Golf & CC
Hamilton Golf & CC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Hamilton Golf & CC
Shaughnessy Golf & CC
St. George’s Golf & CC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
2022
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Nick Taylor
T28
T27
T71
MC
MC
T56
MC
MC
MC
MC
T53
2022: Rory McIlroy
RBC Canadian Open
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
2019
Rory McIlroy
WON
2019: Rory McIlroy
Tournament Debut
Outright Picks:
Taylor Pendrith (+2800) – DraftKings
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
5
21
127
58
24
121
66
37
25
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Sam Burns (+2800) – DraftKings
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
46
110
53
2
29
147
11
13
114
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Christopher Gotterup (+6500) – FanDuel
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
33
50
46
149
9
61
10
34
34
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Matti Schmid (+8000) – FanDuel
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
88
7
150
51
12
40
93
1
1
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Erik van Rooyen (+10000) – FanDuel
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
9
52
44
7
41
107
35
17
36
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000) – FanDuel
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
64
22
122
105
15
55
56
16
38
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Ricky Castillo (+11000) – FanDuel
SG: OTT
SG: APP
SG: ARG
SG: P
Driving Distance
P3:225+
SG:P4
BoB Gained
Prox: 175-200
26
11
35
27
34
119
18
48
64
Rank amongst the field in the last 24 Rounds
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The NFC East: The NFC East was full of surprises as it not only spawned our super bowl champion, but it also had two teams in the NFC conference championship game. Similar to the NFC North, the East had a team, like the Vikings, that was projected to take last place in the Commanders, to instead blow away expectations, while the Cowboys, like the Bears, were the team that completely disappointed. There are reasons for everything, and this is going to be a fun division to break down. From a scheduling perspective, this division has it pretty rough for 2025. The East has to play the best division in football in the NFC North, as well as the up and coming AFC West. One could argue that the AFC west is now the best division at least in the AFC. Either way, there is going to be some stiff competition with the top three teams. Can the Cowboys bounce back? Was Washington for real? Are the Eagles gonna have that super bowl hangover? Let’s see how this all shapes up.
Schedule: Hard – At large vs LA Rams, @ Tampa Bay, @ Buffalo
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Kellen Moore, DT Milton Williams, DE Josh Sweat, CB Darius Slay, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, G Mekhi Becton, CB Isaiah Rogers, ILB Oren Burks, RB Kenneth Gainwell, DE Brandon Graham, CB James Bradberry
Key additions: OT Kenyon Green, Edge Azeez Ojulari, OLB Josh Uche, CB Adoree Jackson, T Kendall Lamm, RB AJ Dillon
Key Draft Picks: LB Jihaad Campbell, S Andrew Mukuba, DL Ty Robinson
Summary: Last season I felt that the Eagles were falling apart when we saw all of the fighting on the sidelines. Well I was certainly wrong about that. Just like the tush-push for 2025, this team prevailed, got hot in the playoffs, and earned Super Bowl rings against a broken down Chiefs team. One thing that the Eagles haven’t been low on is talent. They seem to draft quite well over the past three to four years, and I love their first three picks from the 2025 draft. The big question now, is can they repeat this performance for the 2025 season? The birds have a new OC in Kevin Patullo. He has been with the team since 2021. I have to assume that he learned from two of the good ones over the past three years in Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore. Hopefully, Kevin forgets about the Brian Johnson era. The Eagles for 2025 will go through the same pains as most super bowl teams as they have to shed guys who have built themselves value in the market place while trying to recoup in free agency and the draft. This usually makes a team quite top-heavy as they can’t risk a tough year of injuries. There will not be as much depth in the defensive line. They also took a big hit in the secondary. If all and all goes well, the Eagles will once again win the division, and compete for the 2026 super bowl in Santa Clara California. I have to expect a solid season, but maybe not quite as good as last year.
My Number: 10.55
Action – Lean Under
Philadelphia Power rating: 6.25
2. Washington Commanders –
Vegas Win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -125
2024 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.79
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Atlanta, vs Seattle, vs Miami (neutral in Madrid Spain)
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: DT Jonathan Allen, WR Dyami Brown, S Jeremy Chinn, DE Dante Fowler Jr, T Cornelius Lucas, CB Benjamin St-Juste
Key additions: T Laremy Tunsil, DT Javon Kinlaw, S Will Harris, WR Deebo Samuel, CB Jonathan Jones, K Matt Gay, OLB Jake Martin, T Laremy Tunsil
Key draft picks: T Josh Conerly, CB Tre Amos, WR Jalin Lane
Summary: Please do not look at my projections for the Commanders from last year as it was embarrassingly wrong. This team not only may have had the best draft from 2024, the coaching staff worked much better together than I anticipated. In saying that, this team was quite lucky in many cases last year. The Hail Mary certainly didn’t hurt against a poorly coached Chicago Bears team, having a 78.95% 4th down conversion rate was absolutely against the norm based on twenty three attempts, and the officials not calling the clear roughing the passer in the divisional playoff game against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, which turned into a pick six, certainly made this team look much better than I feel that they actually were. I hate to say it Washington Fans, but I think that the luck is going to run out this year. This team had one of the easiest schedule’s from 2024. Per Warren Sharp, these are the quarterbacks that the Commies fast since week 12. Backup QB Cooper Rush, Will Levis, <bye week>, backups Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler, backup Kenny Pickett, rookie Michael Penix Jr., and backup Trey Lance. That stretch was very fortunate. I think that Washington’s offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury’s tricks are only good for a while before teams start to catch up. I do not love the signing of Deebo Samuel who has been a head case in San Francisco, and is now entering his twilight years. Maybe he gets some gadget type plays, but teams will be ready. I also feel like the Commanders lost more than they have gained on the offensive line and the secondary. The Jury is still out on the draft, but I do expect the offensive line to take a step up. The schedule shows medium for this team this year. There is good and bad in that. The good is that they convert an away game to a neutral game in playing the Miami Dolphins in Madrid Spain. The bad part is that the Commanders have the 3rd worst net-rest advantage at -13 days. The Commies get two teams off of the bye, and their longest weekly rest will be 4 days. I feel pretty generous when I come up with 9.55 wins for this team. I really want to find a 10 to go under their season win total. I also feel there is a chance they could miss the playoffs. I am gonna wait on this one.
My number: 9.55
Power Rating: 2.5
Action – None
3. Dallas Cowboys –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 5.52
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ NY Jets, @Carolina, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Mike McCarthey, DE DeMarcus Lawrence, CB Jourdan Louis, WR Brandin Cooks, DE Chauncey Golston, T Chuma Edoga, QB Cooper Rush, ILB Eric Kendricks, DT Linvale Joseph
Key additions: Coach Brian Shottenheimer, DE Solomon Thomas, DE Dante Fowler Jr., G Robert Jones, RB Javonte Williams, DE Payton Turner, LB Jack Sanborn
Key Draft Picks: G Tyler Booker, Edge Donavan Ezeiruaku, CB Shavon Revel, RB Jaydon Blue
Summary: Your thoughts on Dak Prescott is really all that you have to say about how you rate this team. The Cowboys had some rough injury luck, but in saying that, this team was not exactly ripping it up when Dak was healthy. Dem boys lost three games in a row before the big injury. Prescott did play about seven total games last season with a losing record. The Cowboys have a lot to fix on that offensive line. They couldn’t block anybody in the run game as well as in the pass. Drafting Tyler Booker was a good start, but I do not think that they did enough in free agency to address their Center and Right Tackle. Losing Demarcus Lawrence could hurt this defense some, but they do get Travon Diggs and Micah Parsons back healthy for this year. The George Pickens trade is certainly a gamble based on his attitude. Will he be ok playing second fiddle to CeeDee Lamb? I also think drafting guys like a smaller edge in Ezeiruaku and an injured cornerback from a smaller school in Shavon Revel are certainly gambles. Dem boy’s draft will either be very good or very bad. Nothing in the middle. The coaching hire was certainly a head scratcher for me as I do not think that promoting an offensive coordinator from a losing team is a good move. I suppose that Jerry Jones just wants to maintain almost total control. The thing that bugs me some is that Dallas had a season win total last year of 10.5. The team really didn’t get any worse from offseason to offseason. Was this number that far off to adjust it all the way down to 7.5? Had Dak played the whole season, would this team have been playoff contenders? I think not. For this season, I feel that the whole outlook for this Texas team has a ton of variance to it. The Cowboys have my least confident pre-season handicap, so I will have to be close to the middle. Let’s see what happens the first few games.
My Number: 7.76
Action: No lean
Dallas Power Rating: -1
4. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 5.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.54
Schedule: Hard: At large games vs @ New Orleans, vs San Francisco, @ New England
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Edge Azeez Ojulari, QB Drew Lock, S Jason Pinnock, CB Adoree Jackson
Key additions: QB Russell Wilson, CB Paulson Adebo, S Jevon Holland, DE Chauncey Golston, T James Hudson, DT Roy Robertson-Harris, QB Jameis Winston
Key Draft Picks: Edge Abdul Carter, QB Jaxson Dart, DL Darius Alexander, RB Cam Skattebo
Summary: Well, the Giants just had to win that game against the Colts to remove them from 1st pick contention. I mean, maybe it didn’t matter too much if they weren’t caring about getting an early quarterback, but I will at least say that Russell Wilson can do enough to make them slightly better than last season. The G0men go and pack Jaxson Dart by trading back into the first. I think that Dart was over-drafted in my opinion, yet may turn out sometime later in this season or in his career. He will get some meaningful reps later this season because I do not think this team will be in contention facing the hardest schedule in all of football. The only good news is that this team doesn’t get anyone off of a bye week, but they are only +4 days in net-rest advantage. I honestly do not know what the organization really thinks of Brian Daboll, but if they win 6+ games, his job may be safe. I do think that the Giants did nail this past draft, and had a very busy offseason brining in a bunch of free agents. Maybe not the biggest stars, but guys that will be better than what this team had last year. The Giants should have a great defensive line, but now continue to have a rough linebacker and secondary. Their easiest games on that brutal schedule is at the Saints and at the Bears. Getting the 49ers and Green Bay at home could end up losses. The Giants have such bad luck when it comes to scheduling. This is clearly the worst draw in the NFL. I only see four to maybe five wins for an improved team this year. I have the Giants at 4.27 wins. I have to take the under.
This is going to be a close fight tonight as these two men square off in the lightweight class to move forward in the UFC. The Favorite, Jordan Leavitt is only 29 years old. He won his UFC debut in 2020 against Matt Wiman, just to then lose his next bought to Claudio Puelles back in 2021, but then ripped two wins in a row against Matt Sayles and a split vs Trey Ogden. Unfortunately, he lost two of his next three matches against Paddy Pimblett, and Chase Hooper. I mean, these are quality losses so I can’t take anything away from him. He did beat Victor Martinez in which I call a solid win. Jordan can strike, but wrestling is his true game as most of his wins come by submission. His opponent in Kurt Holobaugh is a journeyman who has started his UFC career way back in 2017, yet he is 38 years old. He is also a wrestler with a very tough chin. The Hurt has amassed 21 wins and 9 losses over his full career. The thing that sticks out to me is that Kurt’s losses were mainly by decision. He tends to hold on to his opponents on the ground while the time ticks away. His get up game is weak, yet he doesn’t allow himself to be submitted as it has happened only once in his career. He also has only been knocked out once as well. I lean the younger Leavitt to win this fight, but I think that Kurt the Hurt can take it to the distance. I will take the better price.
