This will be a shorter write up today– we’re prepping to have family over and you know how that is, busy busyyyyy– but it doesn’t mean this post contains any less research or expertise. After another winning night Thursday (3-2), we move on to Friday’s picks!
Wizards -8 (-110), 2 units and Westbrook over 54.5 P/R/A (-110), 2 units: The Wizards still aren’t guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament to make the playoffs so today is hugely important for Washington. Their final game of the season is against the Hornets, a team that’s much more challenging than their foe in the Cavaliers tonight, so I expect Washington to take advantage and get a big win here. If they do get the W, the Bulls are officially knocked out of the postseason and the Cinderella-like Wizards are in. You can’t get better motivation than that. Expect a big game from the NBA’s leading triple-double master in Russel Westbrook, too, as he puts his team squarely on his shoulders with Bradley Beal still sitting out.
76ers -14 (-110), 2 units: The Sixers need one more win to secure their spot in 1st place in the Eastern Conference and after that embarrassing showing last night, this is as good a situation as any for Philadelphia to blow the doors off a team. It helps that they’re at home facing the Magic. Orlando has been getting outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game since the All-Star break and, not shockingly, they’re one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA, covering at a rate of only 47.1%. Now on a 5 game losing streak and playing with their C team, Orlando has been beaten by 23, 12, 32, 10, and 36 in their last 5 contests. With all the motivation they need and after that bad showing last night, I expect a huge Philadelphia win and cover Friday.
Pistons +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: I can’t say I feel great about this bet but there’s truly nothing for Denver to play for. I guess theoretically they could still pass the Clippers for 3rd place in the West, but LAC has an easy finish– Houston tonight and then OKC on Sunday. The Clippers won’t lose if they need to win and that means in all likelihood the Nuggets will sit comfortably in their 4th placed position to finish the year. Jokic was questionable all day yesterday and, right before tip-off, was announced as a starter and proceeded to dominate the Timberwolves. Appreciate that Jokic because it demolished a great parlay opportunity for yours truly. Regardless, I don’t think he’ll get as many minutes tonight– this line would be bigger if that were true– and the Pistons, for all their disappointments this season, are in the top half of ATS teams in the association. Feels like a cover game for the underdog.
The horse racing world is currently in absolute chaos after the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit tested positive for Betamethasone, a therapeutic medication. Bob Baffert, the trainer of Medina Spirit has been involved in several doping scandals before so it really isn’t a surprise. Baffert originally came out with a statement claiming the drug was not administered, then changed his stance to it was consumed by the horse from contaminated hay, and then finally admitted they gave the horse an ointment that contained the substance. Betamethasone is a class C drug that is allowed by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission but must be out of the horses system 14 days prior to race day. When the blood sample was pulled after the race the horse contained 21 picograms which was over the previous allowable picograms of 10, but was changed to 0 back in August. Baffert, has two horses in this race Medina Spirit and Concert Tour both who were questionable to be admitted after the Derby scandal, but are allowed to race.
Field:
Ram (Ricardo Stantana Jr), 30-1
Keepmeinmind (David Cohn), 15-1
Medina Spirit (John Velazquez), 9-5
Crowded Trade (Javier Castellano), 10-1
Midnight Bourbon (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 5-1
Rombauer (Flavian Prat), 12-1
France Go De Ina (Joel Rosario), 20-1
Unbridled Honor (Luis Saez), 15-1
Risk Taking (Jose Ortiz), 15-1
Concert Tour, (Mike Smith), 5-2
Preview:
Medina Spirit comes into the race as the well earned (I say this ignoring the fact that he was administered an illegal substance) favorite after a win in the Kentucky Derby. He came out and set a great pace leading from wire to wire running his career best Equibase speed figure of 111. He got a favorable break which allowed him to run the race he was hoping for according to jockey John Velazquez. It will be interesting to see if he can grab the lead in this race with all of the early spread headlined by his stablemate Concert Tour. Concert Tour was held out of the Kentucky Derby after a disappointing third place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He started his career by winning his first three races including Rebel Stakes. The veteran Mike Smith gets his first ride on this horse with the outside post position. It’ll be likely that Smith tries to get him out front early to challenge Medina Spirit. If both Medina Spirit and Concert Tour push the pace it could hurt both of these horses chances of winning opening it up for some horses who have a running style of off the pace. Two horses who have a shot if this happens are stablemates in Risk Taking and Crowded Trade. Both of these horses have great jockeys on them in Jose Ortiz and Javier Castellano. Risk Taking misfired in his last race in the Wood Memorial after running winning the Withers Stakes. However, his trainer has been encouraged by his progress and he should have a chance here. Crowded Trade took third in the Wood Memorial behind two derby entrants who finished 13th and 18th. I don’t necessarily think this horse can win the race given his speed figures and pedigree, but he should be used in exotic wagers (trifectas & superfectas). Midnight Bourbon didn’t have a great showing in the Kentucky Derby by any means finishing sixth but his trip definitely had something to do with it as he was pushed wide. If he can get a better break and positioning coming into the final turn, he has a shot here to compete.
Picks:
Win: #10 Concert Tour (5-2), $10
Win: #5 Midnight Bourbon (5-1), $10
Win: #9 Risk Taking (15-1), $10
Exacta Box: #10, #5, #9, $2 -> $12 Total
Exacta Box: #10, #4, #9, $2 -> $12 Total
Exacta Box: #10, #2, #7, $2 -> $12 Total
Risk Total: $66
Be careful with playing the Trifectas and Superfectas at Pimlico. They have a takeout of 25%, one of the highest out of any track.
We went 4-1 yesterday in MLB, putting us back in the groove and well over .500 on the year. It’s a happy Friday here at the Farley household– let’s get to the picks!
Giants -1.5 (+110), 1.5 units: All the value here lies on the Giants. Kevin Gausman (1.97 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 45.2 innings) has been lethal at the mound for San Francisco, flexing a 95 mph fastball, leaving most of his hitters on base (87.2%) and doing a great job at holding off hard contact (0.79 HR/9 innings). The Pirates have been really struggling to make any type of contact, scoring only 2 runs the past 2 contests. We rode that angle yesterday to a win. Today a SF win by margin feels even more possible as the Pirates send out Miguel Yajure to the dirt for his second start of the season. The 23 year old from Venezuela struggled in his first showing, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs over just 4.1 innings against a bad offense at Detroit. The Giants won 3 straight and 4 out of their last 5 games and I don’t think they’ll be very tested this afternoon either. Go San Fran!
Angels/Red Sox under 9.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Angels and Red Sox clash for game 1 in their first series of the year Friday night and I think this will be more of a pitcher’s duel than a typical LAA/Boston slugfest. Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 26 innings) gets the nod for LAA tonight and although he hasn’t been his best at times this young season, lately he’s found more command. He only allowed 1 run in each of his last 2 starts, one of those against the Dodgers, delivering 13 strikeouts and earning 2 wins. After starting the year allowing way too many homers, he’s also significantly improved in reducing hard contact. Boston’s Nick Pivetta (3.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 36.2 innings) takes the mound as Canning’s opposition Friday. Pivetta allows runners on base but he rarely invites the big whacks, holding opponents to only 0.49 HR/9 innings. The Angels and Sox are two of the best offenses in MLB, which is why the totals are always so high, but this feels more like an old fashioned game of chess at Fenway. Two solid pitchers will battle it out as both lineups eke out runs throughout the game. The value is on the under for me.
Orioles first 5 (+140), 1 unit and first 5 total under 5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two separate bets for me, but feel free to parlay. This is another play with built-in value. It’ll be a perfect day at Camden Yards (73 and sunny, low humidity), as the Yankees visit for the second time this season. New York owns the slight lead in the series so far (4-3), but Baltimore will look to resurrect some good pitching and more confidence behind their bats after two straight losses against the Mets. Baltimore’s starter Dean Kremer (6.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP over 26 innings) won’t blow your mind with any of his numbers, but lately he’s showed some positive regression. Last time Kremer faced the Yankees he had his worst outing of the year, allowing 10 hits and 6 runs in just 4.1 innings. Since then his numbers have improved and he should have some extra motivation for today’s rematch after that bad performance in late April. Corey Kluber (3.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 35.1 innings) looks to be finally rounding into form, looking stronger and more comfortable as the season wanes on. Coming back from the types of injuries Kluber suffered in his arm isn’t easy, but the 35 year old has only permitted 5 runs over last 4 games and his strikeout numbers are on the rise. In his last start against Baltimore he allowed plenty of contact (6 hits) but held the Orioles on base, resulting in only 1 lone run for the O’s. The Yankees are streaky this year and after a loss to Tampa Bay last night, maybe this is the start of another slump. The Orioles know the Yankees well and they’re not intimidated. This game should be close– I’ll take the O’s and the under in the first half of play.
Reds (-110), 2 units: The bats were white hot last night at Coors field, resulting in 21 runs and a near Cincinnati comeback (the Rockies were up 10-0 late into the game and the Reds made it 10-8 in the 8th, Colorado sealed it later, winning 13-8). After that fine showing from Colorado’s offense, we’re getting Wade Miley (2.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP over 36 innings) at a reduced price against the shaky German Marquez (5.49 ERA, 1.65 WHIP over 39.1 innings). I like Marquez but every time I try and depend on him, especially if it’s at home, it seems he has one of those head-scratching games. The Rockies want Marquez as their ace and he puts out some electric performances here and there, but he’s not steady enough for me and the Reds are too good to let another opportunity pass them at Coors Field. I think Cincinnati lights it up today.
The OddsBreakers With ESPN's Chris Fallica and Wagertalk's Marco D'Angelo
We have a jam packed show for you today! Chris Fallica from ESPN.com and Marco D’Angelo from Wagertalk.com is back to discuss the 146th running of the Preakness Stakes as well as Cub Fan Danny at the turn to discuss UFC 262! First, Kiev takes his Bears hat off and discusses the Aaron Rogers situation from both sides of the coin. Next, Marco and Chris come on and discuss some NFL and College Football before they get into the Bob Baffert situation and how it applies to this big race. Then, it’s all about the Preakness Stakes and which horses are we keying in on and which horses are we throwing out? What is the best strategy to attack this race? Finally, Cub Fan Danny comes back to discuss the huge UFC 262 event this Saturday Night with Michael Chandler vs Charles Oliveira headlining. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Tonight’s NHL slate features 3 games in three different divisions. However, we only have one game that has any implications on the playoffs which is the Avalanche vs the Kings. The playoffs start this Saturday in the East Division when the Boston Bruins take on the Washington Capitals. Lets take a look at the games today and breakdown some matchups.
Canucks (+150) @ Calgary Flames (-170)
The Canucks have had a disappointing season to say the least which included a major Covid-19 pause where the majority of their team caught the virus. They’re entering this game dropping two of their last three and eight of their last ten. The Flames haven’t exactly been playing great hockey either entering this game five and five in their last ten games.
The Canucks have Demko in net tonight who is 1-2-1 vs Calgary this season with a 3.09 GAA in those games. The Flames are starting Markstrom who’s 4-2 against Vancouver this year giving up an average of 2.25 goals in those matchups.
The Flames have caught the better of the Canucks this season leading the series 4-2 in the six games they’ve played against each other. In terms of the total (5.5), the under is trending for both teams but with nothing to play for besides pride I’m going to stay away from that since I don’t really see any value there. However, I do think there’s some value to the Flames ml in this matchup given Vancouver’s struggles on the road this year and the goalie matchup.
Pick: Calgary Flames -170 (Risk 1.70 Units)
Los Angeles Kings (+337) @ Colorado Avalanche (-422)
The Avalanche take on the Kings in each teams final game of the season with Colorado only having something to play for. The Av’s can lock up the Presidents trophy and clinch home ice advantage for the playoffs tonight. They defeated the Kings last night by a score of 6-0.
There’s no doubt the Avalanche are the better team, it’s now so deciding if there is any value in the number that’s offered tonight. I don’t see any value even in the puck line if Johansson starts, so its a stay away game for me.
The white hot streak of 75-80% winning days came to an end last night after I went 0-2 in NBA picks. The Celtics? Wow. That was truly pathetic. And for the first time in a long time a Wizards total didn’t hit the over. Lightning rarely strikes twice in the same spot and we expect some good ol’ fashioned positive regression tonight. Onto my Friday-Eve picks!
Pacers +9 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky line and it’s sneaky for a reason. The Pacers are quietly playing better these days, winning 3 of their last 4 games against some damn good opponents (Philly and Atlanta stand out). With just a few games left in the regular season, Indiana has an outside shot to still earn the 8th seed in the play-in tournament, which would mean the Pacers get a shot at only playing one game to earn their spot (the 9th and 10th seeds must play 2 games, no matter what, to get into the playoffs). During this last week of action, we’ve seen better effort on defense and exceptional play from Domantas Sabonis and Chris LaVert; i.e., the Pacers won’t be an easy out for Milwaukee tonight. The Nets will finish their season against the Bulls and Cavaliers while Milwaukee is still 1.5 games back from Brooklyn in the East. That all but secures the #2 slot for Brooklyn, so reality is likely settling in that the Bucks will enter the postseason in 3rd and thus will face a much tougher road to get to the finals. Playing away from home and with less to compete for, I like the Pacers to keep this game close. Sprinkle some money-line action? I just might.
76ers +2.5 (-110), 2 units if Embiid plays: This probably won’t be a popular pick but this is based on the likelihood that Jimmy Butler will not play tonight. I also need big man Joel Embiid to be in the lineup. Even if he isn’t I think the 76ers could win this game. The Heat are as tough as it gets and they’ve played really well lately. Miami has won 6 of their last 7 games thanks to their consistent defensive play and veteran leadership from Butler and Adebayo. The reality is, despite the fact that many of us felt the Heat making the finals last year was an aberration, it’s clear now that it wasn’t. Miami has all the tools you need to win a championship: great defense, superb leadership, lethal shooters, and they’re well-coached and committed to team basketball. No one ego is too large. While I love the Heat, I think this is a spot for Philadelphia to flex a little. Joel Embiid sat out 2 nights ago against Indiana, a game they lost, and the 76ers only need one more win to earn the #1 seed in the playoffs. While they could rest and earn that win in one of their final matchups against Orlando, why not do it early and rest your star players for those 2 meaningless games? I can see that being their philosophy tonight, especially since a win against Miami would just mean more. Jimmy Butler got poked in the eye and sat out in the 2nd half against Boston, with concerns over a possible concussion starting to circulate. That sounds to me like he’s not playing. The 76ers could and should take advantage– I’m on Philly for the cover and I’ll probably put a unit on them to win straight up, too.
Spurs +5.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Spurs/Knicks under 216.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. The Spurs need this win much more than New York. The Knicks clinched a playoff berth last night without playing, I’m sure they didn’t hate that, and now they get to chill at home to finish off the season knowing they’ll be in the postseason for the first time since 2013. Time to celebrate, no? Probably not. New York wants to keep winning because they still have a shot at eclipsing Atlanta or Miami for the 4th and 5th seeds. The 6th seed kinda sucks– they’ll have to face an angry Bucks team with home court advantage. Although I doubt that intimidates the Knicks, that’s still more imposing than getting the Hawks or Heat. Be that as it may, I still think the Spurs can cover here. San Antonio is still the best road ATS team (64.7%) in the NBA and they have two games against the 2nd place Suns to finish their season. The Kings have 2 games against the Grizzlies and one game against the Jazz to cap off their season, also not an easy stretch, so one win should secure the 10th place spot for San Antonio. Win or lose, I think the Spurs give this an all-out effort tonight. It helps that the Knicks have announced a bunch of key players, including Derrick Rose, as questionable Thursday. I’ll ride the Spurs and I’ll put a small play on the under here, too. With a playoff feel and the kind of defense these two teams can play, I don’t expect many easy shots tonight.
T-Wolves +2.5 (-115), 2 units: The Nuggets really don’t need this game and they’re on the road. While I don’t think they’ll mail it in early, Jokic has been getting extended time on the bench and they certainly don’t seem to care about covering games. I’ve said it on TheOddsBreakers podcast and in previous articles– despite their disappointing season overall, Minnesota is having fun and playing good basketball right now. They’re a threat to any team they face. Their young talent is healthy and gelling and they’re at home; what a better way to end the season than to compete with one of the best teams in their conference. I like the Timberwolves side tonight and I like it enough to lay down 2 units.
Bulls -10.5 (-110), 2 units: I hate a Bulls team favored this much but it makes sense. Chicago is at home, they need to win out to make the playoffs, and the Raptors are sitting everyone that matters (VanFleet, Lowry, Siakam, Anunoby, etc.). Besides their game against the motivated Nets, Chicago has played really well recently, especially with LaVine back in the lineup. They should blowout the Raptors C team tonight.
Back at it after a day off from MLB and looking to get wins. As usual, I’m always looking for advantageous value so that you’re all spending less and winning more. Onto the picks!
Tigers win (-111), 1 unit and Royals/Tigers over 9 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets. The Royals really need to get off the schneid and I was tempted to put a small bet on them for that reason alone, but I can’t do it with this pitching matchup. Spencer Turnbull (4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 19 innings) takes the mount for the Tigers, who can’t seem to lose lately, while the Royals, who can’t seem to win, give the nod to left-hander Daniel Lynch. In 2 games/5.1 innings, Lynch recently allowed 11 hits and 11 runs in his only 2 starts. The Royals are not only struggling to score but they’re really hurting on the dirt. Their starters and bullpen has allowed 7 runs per game over their 10 game losing streak. That’s atrocious. Whether it’s a bullpen game or not (KC has one of their worst in MLB), I can’t imagine Lynch, who looks far from ready for the majors, and the KC rotation to hold off the Detroit offense again today, regardless of what Turnbull does or doesn’t do. I’m on the Tigers to stack up another win against a division foe.
Brewers/Cardinals under 6.5 (-110), 1 unit: This total is where it should be and it might not get close. Jack Flaherty (2.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 41.1 innings) and Corbin Burnes (1.53 ERA, 0.55 WHIP over 29.1 innings) have been sensational thus far and although American Family Field isn’t typically giving to pitchers, lately these two ballclubs aren’t providing much offense. This is a trend I’m willing to chase and sometimes it’s really that simple– I’ll hit the under for only a humble 1 unit because, when things make sense in the majors, that’s often when the crazy hits.
Giants win (-145), 1.45 units: Anthony DeSclafani (2.40 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 41.1 innings) has looked hittable recently after a blazing start to the season. Still, he’s whipping the rock via a healthy 94 mph fastball and reducing hard contact, allowing only 0.87 homeruns/9 innings. Twenty-six year old Wil Crowe (4.02 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 15.2 innings) gets the call-up again for Pittsburgh today and so far he’s looked decent, holding teams under 5 hits in 3 straight starts. He’ll be hittable again today but he’s not the reason we like the Giants. The Pirates’ bats are still really struggling to make hard contact and produce points. They’re last-place in homeruns and at the bottom of MLB in runs, hits, and a slew of other offensive categories. That’s not a good recipe against a Giants’ team predicated on exceptional pitching from their starters, not to mention excellent showing from their relievers. In what should be another low scoring game, I’m on San Francisco.
Indians/Mariners under 7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Indians and Mariners meet for the first time this year in an interesting pitching matchup to start off the series. Zach Plesac (3.83 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 40 innings), who’s looked sensational in his last 2 starts, gets the nod for Cleveland Thursday. Plesac hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 games, limiting two of the best offenses in Cincinnati and Chicago (the White Sox version) to only 3 hits each over 13.2 total innings. I love that momentum heading into tonight against a Mariners team that’s been very limited at bat the past few weeks. The “no-no” from John Means started a streak where Seattle has only scored 3.3 runs per game over their last 6 contests. One positive note from Seattle may come from their some of their recent roster moves. The Mariners are calling up Jarred Kelenic, an outfielder and the #3 prospect in all of baseball, and up-starter Logan Gilbert, who “while he’s not ranked among the game’s five best prospects, none of the aforementioned prospect rankings have Gilbert listed any lower than No. 47 overall.” Gilbert is a 6’6″ 225 pound powerhouse and “has a mid-90s heater with three average or better secondary offerings, some of the best command of anyone on this list.” (via MLBTradeRumors.com) The Mariners need a feeling of rejuvenation and against a Cleveland unit not known for their offensive prowess, I love this matchup between 3 year starter Plesac and the young gun. I’ll take another under!
We have a great show for you today! Our very own Chris Farley comes on to break down some NBA and UFC 262! Before Chris comes on, Kiev talks about the NFL schedules that just came out today as well the Tim Tebow situation in Jacksonville. Then, Chris comes on and he has been on fire in the NBA, MLB and UFC over here at TheOddsBreakers.com and he was nice enough to come on to give us some of his info, style and methods when it comes to sports betting and handicapping the NBA. Chris also gives us a few plays for tonight’s games. After all of that, Chris and Kiev talk about UFC 262 with some info, break downs and plays! Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL #UFC #Horseracing and more!
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Well, I’m off to a red hot start going 0-5 in my first five games. We have 5 games today, with some playoff implications on the line, specifically in the West Division. Lets take a look at the todays slate and breakdown some matchups.
Vegas Golden Knights (-190) @ San Jose Sharks (+165)
The Golden Knights look for a bounce back game vs the Sharks after a 2-1 loss against the Avalanche where they could have locked up the #1 Seed in the Western Division. The Sharks are also coming off a 5-4 loss vs Arizona, except this game has no meaning for them as they have already been eliminated from the post season.
The Knights are expected to start Fleury as they continue their goalie rotation as they have all year. Fleury has faced the Sharks in five games this season winning all of them with a GAA of 1.60. The Sharks have confirmed Alexei Melnichuk, who has only started one game this year. He lost 5-4 in OT to the Coyotes four days ago facing 32 shots for a 0.855 SV%.
Vegas has been solid on the road as of late going 7-2 in their last nine, while the Sharks have struggled at home going 3-7 in their last 10. The Sharks have nothing to play for but pride here which makes them a live dog, but Vegas also needs to win this matchup. Vegas hasn’t lost to the Sharks all season and are offered at a better line compared to the previous matchups.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights to win in Regulation -150 (Risk 1.5 Units)
Los Angeles Kings (+265) @ Colorado Avalanche (-330)
The Avalanche look to gain ground on the Golden Knights in this matchup, against a Kings team who has looked depleted the past few games.
The Avalanche are starting their top goalie Philipp Grubauer who’s undefeated in four games against the Kings averaging 1.25 goal against. Grubauer averages 2.00 GAA on the season which is good news for the Av’s as he’s historically played better against their opponent. The Kings have yet to name a starter but C. Peterson is expected who’s 0-5 against Colorado this season.
The Kings and Avalanche have both struggled to score in the past few games. The under will most likely be a popular play here for bettors given those trends. The Av’s have dominated this matchup all season long and should continue their ways here. Colorado has the best xGF, Corsi %, and Fenwick % in the league compared to the Kings who are in the bottom tier of all of those categories. This is one of the highest prices the Avalanche have been offered in this matchup implying they should take care of business.
Another 3-1 night and now we’re 21-6 the last 6 days of NBA betting! Not counting any chickens before they hatch and staying humble, let’s knock on as much wood as we can find and keep putting out sharp plays, shall we? We shall. Onto my hump day picks:
Wizards/Hawks over 238.5 (-110), 2 units: Well this is an auto-play at this point. Like I said in my last write-up, Bradley Beal’s absence isn’t great but it doesn’t completely inhibit the Wizards from scoring. Washington scores and scores fast because of their pace of play and because of Russel Westbrook’s masterful facilitation skills. The Wizards haven’t clinched anything yet and while it’s unlikely the Bulls can take them out of the 10th place and final play-in spot, they’re not looking at this or any game as a contest they can afford to lose. Washington has moved up to 4th overall in points per game and the Hawks, for what it’s worth, are an exceptional 8th overall in offensive efficiency; aka they’re no slouches on the offensive end either. The over is 6-0 ATS in the Wizards’ last 6 games and 4-0 ATS in Atlanta’s last 4 games. I can’t see this not going over again tonight, but crazier things have happened.
Celtics -6 (-110), 2 units: Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart have been added to the injury list and are out tonight, but I care not. After bad two losses to the Heat and now losers of 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5, Boston is stumbling into the postseason and they need to correct that, fast. No team wants to enter that cold. Expect a big game from Tatum tonight as the Celtics travel to Cleveland to take on a team that has been astoundingly bad ATS: over their last 14 games, the Cavs are 1-13 against the spread, and 8 out of those 13 losses have been by 16 points or more. It’s glaringly apparent that Cleveland has said bye-bye to the 2021 season; Boston needs to take advantage. And let’s put it this way– would you rather bet on Cleveland to cover at +6? No, no you wouldn’t. In the overanalytical world of sports betting, sometimes that’s all you need to ask yourself. I expect a double-digit win tonight, regardless of Boston’s missing pieces.
Lakers -11 (-115) if LeBron plays, 1.5 units: The Rockets have been covering more games lately but on the season, they’re a wretched 25-44 ATS. It’s rare any NBA team finishes below 40% ATS but Houston is locked into 36% and here comes the rejuvenated Lakers. I’m thinking that ATS number will keep dropping. Once again, it looks like King LeBron will suit up and play tonight (please God) and this bet depends on it. The Lakers won a tough-fought game last night against the Knicks, as we figured they would, and now they get to stay at home and face one of the worst teams in the NBA while fighting for that precious 6th spot in the West. In case you didn’t see my tweet earlier today, LAL could easily dethrone Portland for that 6th place. The Blazers have the Jazz, Suns and Nuggets remaining on their schedule; those are all games they could lose. Meanwhile lady luck clearly favors the 2020 champs as the Lakers will battle against the Rockets, Pacers and Pelicans to finish off their season. Advantage LAL. There’s virtually no chance (never say never) that the Lakers will allow themselves to blow this game and I expect them to put in max effort as they continue to gain steam and eye the postseason.
