It’s no secret that the White Sox have been hot lately winning five of their last six games. Some people actually say that the Sox are regression candidates due to having such a high BABIP as well as ranking number 2 in opponent runs per game but I am somewhat skeptical on that. What I do know is that the Starting Pitcher for the Twins is a lefty in JA Happ who has a 5.01 ERA lifetime vs the Sox. We can’t forget that the Sox are the best batting team against lefties with a 1.41 wRC+. The Twins are a pretty good batting team themselves ranking 6th in wRC+ and they are facing Dallas Keuchel who is due for some negative regression himself having a 3.79 ERA with a 4.5 FIP. I think that we see some runs this game and this total is a bit low looking at the caliber of hitting that both of these teams have available. today.
I would say I’m sick of typing “I went 3-1 or 4-1” here but that couldn’t be further from the truth. After another 3-1 day we’ve gone 18-5 the last 5 days and I have no plan of stopping before the season ends. Handicapping and predicting the playoffs will be tough but at least we don’t have to question motivation! Onto Tuesday’s plays:
Nuggets -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: It’s really unlikely that Denver will lose their position in the 4th spot of the Western Conference playoffs. They’re a solid 4 games ahead of Dallas and they have an easier schedule: Charlotte tonight, followed by Minnesota, Detroit, and then Portland to cap the regular season. One more win would lock them in at 4th, but I don’t like their side tonight for any of those reasons. While it could add extra motivation, Denver will be inspired to play Tuesday because of their recent failures. The Nuggets dominated the NBA in April but they’ve now lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 entering tonight. Their recent losses were formidable– they dropped games to a resurging Lakers team, to the Nets and to the Jazz, the #1 team in the West. Still, Denver doesn’t want to enter the postseason on a lull. The Hornets are a solid basketball team and they’re at home, but these are the kind of games they’ve blown all year. While they can compete with and sometimes beat up on mid-tier teams, they’re no match for a team like the Nuggets. As a unit, Denver is top 10 in assist ratio, rebound ratio, effective field goal percentage, true-shooting percentage, and offensive efficiency. Their defense also allows the 9th fewest points per game. Aaron Gordon is probable to return and I expect the leading MVP candidate Nikola Jokic to impose his will tonight. I’m on Denver with confidence.
Timberwolves -7 (-115), 2 units: This is one of my favorite bets of the day. The Timberwolves, unlike most non-playoff teams, still love playing basketball. Sure sure, they recently dropped games to a few superior opponents, but lately we’ve seen a burgeoning from these young talented Minnesota players. It’s exciting to think about how good they could be in the future. D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards round up an athletic and explosive group of performers, each regularly scoring in the double-digits, that are incredibly fun to watch. They’ve collectively laid waste to bad teams like Orlando, Houston, and Sacramento recently, and they’ve even pulled off victories against the Warriors and Jazz (they actually beat Utah twice in a row). If the Pistons had Jerami Grant back tonight I might be less inclined to bet the Timberwolves’ side here, but I just don’t see how they don’t get another big win. Detroit has been getting manhandled by mid-tier teams and with all their young studs healthy and looking to put on a show, this amped up Minnesota squad should do it again tonight.
Nets -4.5 (-115) if Durant/Kyrie play, 2 units: Don’t overthink this. The Nets are somewhat stumbling into the end of their season, losing 4 out of their last 5 games. Saturday’s comeback win against Denver was sweet, but I don’t think Durant and Kyrie are done. The Nets led the Eastern Conference for a large amount of the season and now they’re in danger of losing the 2 seed. Nut uh, I can’t see it. The Nets know how integral that 1 or 2 seed is, the road to the Finals looks significantly less challenging from the top, and they’re not about to let a fat and sassy Bulls team affect their chances. Chicago has played well lately but forgive me if I’m not overly impressed. Recent wins against the Hornets, the volatile Celtics and the Pistons don’t excite me. LaVine and Vucevic are good; they’re not Kyrie and Durant good. I realize the Nets don’t play great defense (neither does Chicago), but offensively these two teams are on different planets. As long as Brooklyn doesn’t have some kind of cataclysmic shooting night, this one shouldn’t be close.
Lakers -5.5 (-115) if Lebron is back, 2 units: I love the Knicks, hopefully you all know that from reading my posts, but it feels like New York is running full speed into a buzz-saw tonight. This is not a hype-article propagating the Lakers’ triumphant and redemptive playoff run about to happen– I really don’t see it this year– but all signs point towards a symphony of events coming together just in time for Tuesday’s showdown. First, the Knicks just got a huge win against the Clippers Sunday. Grinding through a long road trip where they recently lost to the Nuggets and Suns, the Knicks seemed undeterred Sunday, out-playing and out-defending the Clippers for 48 minutes (much to the chagrin of Kawhi and company). Although still a game or two away from cementing their official spot in the playoffs, that victory certainly helped their chances. The rest of their schedule isn’t easy but it’s doable– they finish off against San Antonio, Charlotte, and then Boston. The Knicks will win at least one or two of those contests and they know it. Tonight, on the final leg of this insanely arduous road trip, New York faces a very hungry Lakers team. Fresh off a massive game from Anthony Davis (42 points, 12 rebounds) against the Suns, King James is set to make his glorious return and, shocker, suddenly the Lakers are looking very healthy. Their only missing piece is Dennis Schroder, but he should be back by playoff time. The Blazers have a really difficult ending to their season with games against Utah, Phoenix, and Denver down the stretch. The Lakers road looks much easier: New York tonight and then Houston, Indiana and New Orleans. Portland is only 1 1/2 games ahead of LAL, meaning it’s very reasonable to imagine LAL sitting in the 6th spot instead of Portland at season’s end. All the motivation, players, and situational spots are right on target, while the Knicks probably just want to go home. If Lebron plays, I expect a big Lakers win.
Kings -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Kings are a lot like the Timberwolves– they still enjoy playing basketball. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and the Thunder have mailed it in. Two days ago the Kings handily beat OKC by 28 points. Why wouldn’t that repeat? It’s an overly-simple handicap but it’s worth 1 unit for me to wager.
We have a small late of NHL games tonight as we just have two matchups. The first being a Eastern Division rivalry between two playoff bound teams, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals. The second matchup is a little less exciting as the Vancouver Canucks travel Winnipeg to take on the Jets. Lets take a look at the Bruins vs the Caps and breakdown the matchup and pick.
Boston Bruins (+140) @ Washington Capitals (-160)
We have a playoff preview in tonight’s game as the Boston Bruins travel to the nation’s capital to take on Washington. This game means absolutely nothing for either side as the seeding has already been set. The series between Boston and Washington will start this Saturday night.
The Capitals have confirmed they’re starting Vitek Vanecek who has a 3-3 record and 3.19 GAA in the six games he’s faced Boston this year. Opposite of Vanecek the Bruins are starting Jeremy Swayman, a young goalie who has been great all year. He enters the game with a 7-2 record in 9 games played with a 1.44 GAA. He’s faced the Capitals once this year where he picked up the win in a 4-2 game.
The Boston Bruins are red hot entering this matchup and are clicking on all cylinders. The Bruins however have struggled in the second leg of back to back games. The line opened -115 for Washington and has shifted all the way to -160 (61.5%). This is the highest line for the Capitals in all of their matchups this year. The goalie matchup is the biggest factor for me here, I think the Bruins have the edge and despite back to back games I think the Bruins are just playing better hockey than the Capitals.
The Padres/Rockies game didn’t happen and Baltimore pushed in the first 5 but the Reds and Giants delivered– gotta love a nice parlay to start the week, too! After a lovely 2-1 start, we move on with 4 more plays today:
Reds (+105) and Orioles (+133) win, 1 unit each: Hold on– you’re telling me I get the Reds, who smashed the Pirates yesterday in Pittsburgh, and I get John Means fresh off a no-no against Seattle, for + money? Well like my best buddy from the military used to say– slap my ass and call me Sandy, count me in (it’s not supposed to make sense)! I don’t care if they both lose; this is another shot at value and we can’t not take it. On paper, Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker (2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 32.1 innings) has better stats than Cincinnati’s Jeff Hoffman (4.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 26.2 innings). Brubaker has been solid but he’s on a 3 game losing streak and oh by the way, he lost in his first start against this very same Reds team. He’s a good pitcher but he’s not elite. For what it’s worth, Hoffman was only humbled by the White Sox and Dodgers this year, and we all know the Pirates’ bats aren’t in the same universe as the Sox and Dodgers. Baseball is a pitcher’s game but the Reds’ offense is considerably better than their foe today. I’ll gladly take a shot on them winning game 2 at PNC Park.
John Means (1.37 ERA, 0.67 WHIP over 46 innings) takes the mound after commanding a no-hitter last week, the first for Baltimore since 1969. That’s pretty incredible. Means has been incomparable this short season and it’s not a fluke– his velocity is crisp, his BABIP is a career low .158 and he has a 100% LOB percentage. Not bad John, not bad. The Mets send Marcus Stroman (2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 34 innings) to the dirt today, who’s been exceptional for New York, but I’m happy to build off Means’ momentum and confidence against a shaky lineup from Queens. The Mets are due some positive regression in a multitude of areas but this isn’t the day to get it.
Rockies win (+150), 1 unit and Rockies/Padres over 10 (-110), 2 units: ESPN has certainly failed me before but according to them and other sites this is still a battle between Dinelson Lamet and Antonio Senzatela. Because that’s the case, I’ll repeat my pick from yesterday and apply it today. Read my analysis from yesterday’s write up to learn why.
Rough start to the season with my first two picks gong 0-2 (-2.70 Units). However, we look to turn that around today as we have a loaded NHL slate of games today. There’s some really exciting matchups, so let’s break one those games down.
Tampa Bay Lighting (+130) @ Florida Panthers (-150)
The Tampa Bay Lightning square off against the Florida Panthers in their final game of the season. The Lighting are coming off a 5-1 loss against the Panthers on Saturday. This game is a playoff series preview between these two teams. However, even though this is the last game of the season, the winner of this matchup will get home ice advantage in the playoffs. The home ice advantage means more for these two teams since they have some of the largest Coivd-19 capacities (~25%).
Florida lead this season series 4-3 and are coming into this game on a 11-1 streak in their last 12 at home. Tampa Bay has not officially confirmed their starter but Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the nod for the Bolts. He’s 2-3 against Florida this year with a 3.23 GAA. Vasilevskiy has struggled as of late with his SV% being the lowest its been in May. He’s also played worse on the road than at home. The Panthers have confirmed that Chris Driedger will start. He has only faced Tampa twice this year, picking up three out of four points.
This should be a playoff type matchup between these two squads tonight. The over in this series is 5-1-1 and is 3-0-1 when the total is set at 6.0 (tonight’s total). In the previous 7 matchups, Florida has not been the favorite once. The opening line for this game had the Bolts -140 but has shifted in the Panthers favor to -150. Tonight, Florida is has an implied winning probability of 60%. Even with Tampa’s struggles as of late, injuries, and suspension, the previous matchups have been so close I think don’t agree with those odds for Florida.
Yet another 4-1 performance Sunday capped off a fantastic week for yours truly in NBA picks. Of course, this whole season has been pretty spectacular. We were 21-10 last week, 15-4 the past 4 days, and now 192-140 (58%) overall this year. It’s the final week of the NBA’s regular season and it’s my sole intention to finish as high as we started. Let’s go!
Pacers -8 (-110), 1.5 units: This line is now all the way up to -9 at most books and I still like that number. Indiana should win this by double digits. The Cavaliers have now lost 10 straight games and if you want to know just how bad they’re losing, check out the stats my article yesterday— they’re getting their asses kicked night in and night out. The reality is that Cleveland has mailed it in for the season and even if they didn’t want to mail it in, they’re just way too injured. Any chance they had of resurrecting their season dissipated months ago when injuries kept stacking up and wins became more sparse. Collin Sexton is easy to cheer for and Kevin Love is back, but they just don’t have the talent or depth to rival a motivated team like Indiana. The Pacers aren’t exactly healthy either, but the good news is Domantas Sabonis (probably the most integral piece to Indiana’s success), Chris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon will all play tonight. The Pacers sit at 10th in the East, the final spot to enter to play-in tournament for a chance at the postseason. I don’t think they’ll win that play-in tournament but they have a real reason and the inspiration to play for something tonight. The Pacers face a really tough remaining schedule with Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LAL, and Toronto all coming this week, so they really need to win this one. I don’t like that Indiana hosts the 76ers tomorrow night but the Cavs just got annihilated 24 hours ago by Dallas, losing by 27 points, so this is still a tougher spot for Cleveland. All systems go– time for the Pacers to impose their will and prove they want it.
Wizards/Hawks over 237 (-115), 2 units: If you’ve read my articles you know I love to talk about and quantify the Wizards totals the past few weeks. They simply cannot be stopped. Bradley Beal has a hamstring issue so he won’t play tonight, but Beal isn’t the only reason the Wizards score so many points. It’ll hurt not having their star but if anything, I’d say Russel Westbrook is the most integral cog in their offensive machine. The Wizards have been ranked #1 in pace for quite some time now, reminiscent of the Warriors teams of the past, and it’s why they’re able to overwhelm their opponents. Russel is a master at sprinting down the court, facilitating the ball and creating opportunities for his teammates. Beal might be the biggest beneficiary of that but we’ve seen big games from Hachimura, Bertans, Neto and others too. The Hawks don’t play nearly as fast as Washington but they make up for it in other ways. Trae Young leads an effective group of shooters that are ranked 8th overall in offensive efficiency and 14th overall in points per game (113.3). Lately they’ve been scoring even more, averaging 123 points over their last 4 contests. Picking the under in a Wizards game feels like blasphemy these days and I won’t do it tonight, especially at any number falling under 240. Book it.
Bucks -7 (-110), 1 unit: This one is really tough to call. I’ll only put 1 unit on it but I think the Bucks can overwhelm San Antonio. The Spurs love to run at a methodical pace and play solid defense but they won’t blow you away in any one area. The Bucks? They’re all about blowing the other team away. Milwaukee has one style to eliminate their opponents and it hasn’t changed much the last few years– let Giannis sprint in, create space and dominate the front court. San Antonio no longer has the size and prowess in their own front court to stop someone like Giannis and I think that could be a real problem tonight. Their starting forward Keldon Johnson is 6’5″ and their starting center Jakob Peoltl, the Austrian who stands at 7’1″, has solid moments but rarely dominates at the rim. Ergo, I think the Greek-Freak will do whatever he wants in this contest. This is a tough game to handicap because both teams really want to win. The Spurs still sit at 10th overall in the West, the final play-in spot, while the Pelicans are breathing down their neck sitting only 1 1/2 games back. San Antonio has a brutal stretch to end the season (New York, Brooklyn, Phoenix x 2) and needs every win they can get. The Bucks have taken advantage of the Nets’ recent failures and only sit 1/2 game back of 2nd place in the East. The 1st and 2nd place spots are extremely important in the Eastern Conference and no doubt the Bucks are amped to have a shot at it. For as much as San Antonio has fought hard and for as good as they are against the spread, I have to favor the considerably better team here, especially since they should be just as motivated to win. Only 1 unit, but I’m on Milwaukee to cover.
Steph Curry over 35.5 points (-115), 2 units and Lean, Warriors win (+110): I’ll probably sprinkle some money on the Warriors winning but it’s just a lean for now. I do think this will be a big Steph Curry game. Just for perspective, Curry has scored over 35.5 points in 13 of his last 20 games. Many of those over 35.5 point games were against the NBA’s better defensive teams: Denver, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philadelphia. And now here comes another marquee matchup between the #1 team in the West in the Utah Jazz and the #8 team in Golden State, a squad that’s almost solely in a position to make the playoffs because of their star. It’s true that the Jazz are extremely good on defense, they rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and allow the 3rd least points per game, but I think it’s fair to say that Rudy Gobert is the dominant factor in that equation. The 7’1″ French giant will probably win defensive player of the year again and he deserves it. What Gobert cannot hope to control is Steph Curry. Curry is too talented at moving around off the pick and roll and too crafty at finding ways to out-dribble his opponent and create distance. With pride and motivation soaring inside Curry tonight at the Chase Center, I don’t think there’s any chance (barring an injury, knock on wood) that we don’t see another electric performance from #30. The Warriors could very well win, but I’ll confidently ride Curry’s points for now. Look at a first quarter or first half line on Golden State, too. I could see them coming out really hot, although Utah could end up overcoming it towards the end.
Overall a winning week in MLB as we continue to try and find value every day. Keep in mind– there’s a ton of “pro bettors” out there who love giving out mega-favorites and calling themselves handicappers. True professionals look for value and only give out ATS plays that are advantageous for you and your bankroll. That’s why you see so many + money bets in my write-ups. Even if they don’t always win, when they do hit it’s exponentially better for your finances since you’re risking less and winning more than you would on a big favorite. Sticking with that approach, here are 6 plays (3 for + money) for your Monday slate!
Reds win (-140), 1.5 units: We’re getting a reduced price on Tyler Mahle (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.82 FIP over 30.2 innings) and the Reds and I’ll jump on the opportunity. Cincinnati is coming off a loss to Cleveland while the Pirates edged the Cubs last night at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh returns home with a 5-7 record at PNC Park and hopes that they can stay off the schneid for awhile. Last night’s win cracked a 3 game losing streak. The Reds sit right above the Pirates in 4th place in the stacked NL Central. Pittsburgh starts young gun Mitch Keller (6.29 ERA, 1.68 WHIP over 24.1 innings) today, who’s showed mixed results in 5 games. Allowing plenty of hits and runs in his first 4 outings, Keller had a great showing last time out against the Padres, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings for the win. Mahle may be getting a reduced number because he was blasted last time out, giving up 9 hits and 6 runs in just 5 innings. Before that embarrassing start Mahle was sensational, holding hitters to only 3 runs and 10 hits over his first 4 games. I expect us to see that Mahle today. Pittsburgh has played well in spurts but they’re still ranked at or near the bottom in a ton of offensive categories, while the Reds are one of the best scoring and hitting lineups in baseball. I trust the Cincinnati bats and Mahle to turn in a good performance and get the win.
Orioles first 5 (+110), 1 unit and Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-115), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. We saw what the Orioles can do against lefties and the stats speak to it: Baltimore hits, scores more runs, and has a considerably higher batting average (.272) against southpaws. The Red Sox start Martin Perez (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 28.2 innings) today, who’s looked okay but certainly hittable, allowing 20 hits and 11 runs in his last 4 starts. The 30 year old Perez has done a good job limiting hard contact so far, allowing only 0.31 HR/9 innings, but good offensive teams find a way to get on base against him. The Orioles are not an elite offensive team just yet but against a leftie, at Camden Yards in mild temperatures and down 0-3 in this series, I expect Baltimore’s bats to be motivated and aggressive. The home team starts Jorge Lopez (6.49 ERA, 1.37 WHIP over 26.1 innings) Monday, who’s also been very hittable. He’s been trending in a good direction though, allowing only 7 hits and 3 runs in his last 2 games on the mound. There’s value on Baltimore here, at least early, and I’m sure both teams will find enough juice to push this game over. Neither starting pitcher is elite and the bullpens are tired.
Rockies win (+150), 1 unit and Padres/Rockies over 10 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets, although it might make a good parlay, too. If we knew Dinelson Lamet (0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP over 4 innings) was completely healthy and ready to rock that electric right arm of his, this probably wouldn’t be a fair contest. But know that we do not. The 6’3″ 28 year old has dynamic, powerful throwing ability and if/when he’s 100%, he’ll add to an already heavy list of elite starting pitchers for San Diego. Lamet has been kept on a pitch count so far, only accounting for 2 innings in each of his 2 games this season, but the results were solid. After suffering a UCL sprain last year and already with a history of elbow injuries, it’s unclear how much usage he’ll get today. That being said, the other issue he’ll have Monday is the issue a lot of starters face when they travel to Denver– Coors field is simply a different animal. The Rockies are 10-8 straight up and averaging 5.9 runs per game at home. Last time at Coors they earned an inspired series win against the NL West leading Giants, although they just lost 3 games in a row at St. Louis. Colorado starts Anthony Senzatela (5.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 29.2 innings) today, another young gun that has shown promise in spots, but he’s allowed way too many homeruns this year (1.52/9 innings) and his LOB percentage is down to 65.9%. He’ll have to maintain better command today if the Rockies have a shot in this one. He’s certainly capable of it. Based on the forecast today it’s unlikely this game will even happen (looks to be snowy/rainy and cold). If/when it does, there’s value on Colorado and I love the over.
Parlay- Giants win and Rangers/Giants under 7.5 (-115), 1 unit to win 2.16 units: Okay here’s a parlay for you. Alex Wood (1.96 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) has been sensational so far for the Giants, giving up only 18 base runners in 23 innings pitched. He experienced a little negative regression at Coors Field in his last start but who doesn’t? Even the best fall in the Mile High City. San Francisco has seen a burgeoning of offense recently but I don’t think this will be one of those games. Texas has been feisty lately too, winning 5 of their last 6 ballgames. Today’s they’ll send Kyle Gibson (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 41.1 innings) to the mound. The 33 year old, 9 year starter has been used a ton this young season and he’s shown exceptional command. Except for an ugly showing in his first game at Kansas City, Gibson has averaged 6.8 innings per start and averaged only 1 one earned run per game. It won’t be easy for either of these offenses to get on base and points should be scarce. The Giants are 12-4 at Oracle Park and this feels like a low-scoring pitcher’s duel that we can all capitalize on for + money. Let’s hit the parlay!
What a week it’s been! We went 3-1 yesterday, which makes us 11-3 the last three days and 17-9 overall this week. 327 picks in, we’re now over 57% and cruising into the end of the season. Let’s wrap up this week in strong fashion, shall we?
Heat/Celtics under 222.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be a really contentious game with a real postseason feel. The Celtics would love nothing more than to dethrone the Heat from the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference. As you probably know by now, there’s a huge difference between being the 7th and 6th seed. The 7th seed has to participate in the “play-in tournament,” which is a quick chance to be eliminated from the playoffs before they even start. The 6th seeds and better don’t face that tribulation. This is the first of a doubleheader between these teams at the TD Garden Center. Both the Celtics and the Heat come into Sunday playing really well; Boston and Miami are both 12-7 since the start of April. Lately the Celtics have been a part of some high scoring games but overall, they’ve stepped up on the defensive end of the floor. The Heat continue to win games by effective, cerebral team offense and stellar defense. Boston is ranked 11th in points allowed per game, while Miami is 4th. Boston is in the lower half of the league at 17th overall in pace while the Heat are 28th– good for one of the slowest tempos in the association. In a doubleheader this significant, on national TV and with defenses as good as these teams have, I have to trigger an under play here. I have this game closer to 214.5, so I’ll gladly jump all over this opportunity. Prayers up for no overtime!
Knicks/Clippers under 214.5 (-110), 1 unit and Knicks +7.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Knicks have been through a gauntlet the past week. We knew how tough it would be– road games against Memphis, Denver and Phoenix have led to today at the Staples Center and the Knicks are almost finished with this long stretch away from Madison Square Garden. Almost. Another game in LA against the desperate Lakers awaits Tuesday. After an impressive showing against the Grizzlies, New York has dropped two straight games. Of course these were all against elite opponents, but now the Knicks may face their biggest challenge in LAC. I actually like the way they measure up, though. The Clippers have been extremely sharp from the field. With an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% and NBA-leading 41.7% from beyond the arc, the Clippers have arguably the most talented group of shooters in the NBA not named the Nets. When Leonard and George and Morris Sr. and Jackson are all in-sync, LAC is extremely dangerous and can score with a rapid ferocity (not to mention Rondo’s help via his exceptional passing off the bench). More to come on my podcast this week but I like their chances in the playoffs. Be that as it may, the Knicks may be one of the only teams in the NBA that can match the Clippers’ intensity. The Clippers get open because they just have too much exceptional talent. Whether its Leonard or George or another player driving to the rim, they cause defenses to collapse and that leaves their elite shooters wide open. Undisciplined teams don’t have answers for the Clippers, but I think the Knicks can. LAC lost to teams like the Suns and 76ers for the same reasons that they could be challenged by New York. The Knicks don’t easily fall for tricks, even against offensive savants like Kawhi Leonard, and that should be able to slow down LAC’s attack. The only other time these two teams faced back in late January the Clippers did what they always do– outshot their opponent and kept margin all game, shooting 54.3% from the field and 44.7% from 3-point land. That was at MSG so this a revenge game for New York and doubly so considering the pride they have on defense. The Knicks also fear slipping back into the East standings, still sitting comfortable at 4th overall. I’ll take the underdog to keep this contest close. The Knicks and Clippers both play at a really slow pace and I expect the same intensity that I mentioned in the above write-up between Boston and Miami, so it’s another under play for me, too.
Mavericks -11 (-110), 2 units: It looks like Kevin Love might return in this game but that doesn’t concern me. Dallas easily beat the Cavaliers by 20 points Friday night and I don’t see why this game would look any different. If Love does play, he won’t be 100%. He’s nursing a knee issue and it’s clear his team has mailed it in for the season. The Cavaliers have lost 9 games in a row. During that stretch, they’ve lost by an average of 17.1 points. Dallas cannot afford to fall in the standings, the Blazers are creeping up on their 5th seed, and will look to gain and sustain margin today.
Lakers +7.5 if Anthony Davis plays (-110), 1 unit: I really want to play on the Lakers here as they look to escape a “play in tournament” spot but they’re very banged up. Based on reports I’m reading now, Kuzma is out, Caruso and Horton-Tucker are questionable, and Gasol and Caldwell-Pope and Davis are probable. If the Lake-show wants to avoid the tournament, the time is now. Phoenix sits comfortably and somewhat untouchably in the 2nd place spot in the West so they might not share the same motivation. They have a tough but winnable schedule in their last 5 games and really only need to win 2 games to stay in their position. We’ll see if the Lakers can muster a good performance here Sunday, they need it. Only a 1 unit play for me.
Another 4-1 night gives us an 8-2 record the last two days and your boy is LOVING it. Thank you so much to the many people who have given these NBA articles so much viewership! It means a ton to me; I’m extremely passionate about these picks and I love it when we all win. Onto more free plays and onto more cash!
Wizards win (-160), 2.5 units and Game over 248 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m not sure if Washington can cover the 3.5, this should be a close game, but I do expect them to win. Both the Pacers and Wizards play with a ton of heart and they’re desperate for more victories before the season ends– Washington is ranked 10th and Indiana is 9th in the East, two of the last spots left in the play-in tournament to get into the postseason. While Sabonis and McDermott hold up the Pacers, Beal and Westbrook have been putting on a show for the Wizards. The pace and aggression of Russel Westbrook is really hard to match and I expect a big game for Beal against a Pacers team ranked 25th in points allowed this season. The Wizards play at the quickest tempo in the NBA and Indiana is ranked 5th, while both teams are in the top 8 (Pacers- 8th, Wizards- 4th) in points per game. The Wizards will edge the Pacers at the end in yet another 235-230 type scenario, so I’ll go with the over and Wizards. This should be entertaining!
Nuggets over 114.5 points (-110), 2 units: I don’t know if the Nuggets will win this game, Brooklyn is awfully desperate after 4 straight losses, but Jokic and Porter Jr. and Gordon are going to be a problem for the Nets. That rag-tag group from Brooklyn has been under siege over how they play defense (or lack thereof) and they deserve the criticism. They’re 23rd in points allowed per game, 21st in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed 119 ppg in their last 5 contests (they’ve gone 1-4 in that span). I like this game going over the 232 total and I lean the Nuggets side, too. The Nuggets have done nothing but win throughout the last month and after a let-down against the Jazz last night I expect Denver, at home, to put in maximum effort Saturday night. They’ll coast for the rest of their season (games against Charlotte, Minnesota, Detroit and Portland await) so they can slow down after tonight, but this is the type of game they’ll want to rise up for and flex. Jokic and company will have no issue out-smarting and scoring on Brooklyn’s defense, while the Nets will push the pace and force more points out of Denver. Hammer it.
Spurs +6 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Blazers to cover and too many for San Antonio to give up. As much as we love to boast about Portland’s offense, they don’t create a ton of margin. They’re just over the level at +1.1 in point differential and they’re 22nd in points allowed per game. The Spurs are as desperate as ever in the 10th spot in the Western Conference with a ton of tough games ahead to end their season. They need this win and they need to keep covering on the road (they’re the away ATS leader at 68.8%, 22-10-1). This is an automatic play for me on a very solid, very well-coached team.
