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Ravens at Rams : Monday Night Football

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

Baltimore at LA Rams 

Pick: Bal -2.5/Lean  (Buying ½ pt to protect against a push at -3)

Don’t play a lot of NFL road favorites but Baltimore is a team to get behind right now until they slip up.  I really liked them vs Houston last week and I passed on it and kicked myself over it.  

Baltimore has scored 30 or more in 4 straight games while allowing 20 or fewer points in that span.  They are 4-0 ATS as well in that period. Lamar Jackson has thrown 1 INT in his last 5 games. He has completed over 70% of his passes in each of his last 3 games.  Jackson is avg nearly 7 ypc running the ball as well. He’s run for over 470 yards in his last 5 games.  

Baltimore’s defense held DeShaun Watson to 7 for 18 and 100 yards last week.  The Ravens defense sacked Watson 7 times.  

The Ravens out gained Houston by 259 yards last week.  

 

L.A. only out gained the horrid Bears offense by 16 yards.  They only out gained a pedestrian Pittsburgh offense by 33 yds.  Now both Chicago and Pittsburgh have good defenses, but this is not the Rams offense from last season.  The Rams could only muster 69 more yards than the Bengals in a game where Cincinnati hung with them and nearly posted a backdoor cover, a game I sent out to you that we barely won. 

 

The Rams offense is struggling.  L.A. comes in #25 in turnovers and passing TD.  They were #8 in passing TD last season. Goff has only an 11/10 TD/INT ratio. They no longer run the ball with consistent success, ranking #24 in ypc this season vs #3 in ypc last season.

 

I think Baltimore is too explosive right now and the Rams just are not very good on offense.  Have to take the Ravens until they show some sign of letting up.

College Football Week 13 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Tennessee vs Missouri -5 O/U 45

Recency bias can be bad when you just look back at the last game.   Recency bias can be good if you see a trend of progression or regression with a larger sample size or even half the season.   Tennessee started out the season poorly losing to teams like BYU and Georgia State, but they won 4 of their last 5 games and kept up with Alabama for awhile.   Missouri went on a nice run of winning some games until they lost to Vanderbilt, and since then, they got shut out by Georgia and only scored 7 points at home vs Florida.  Looking at the numbers, Missouri’s best win was against Ole miss while Tennessee at least beat Kentucky.  Tennessee has had the harder schedule here.   Both of these teams are trying to make a bowl game here so I think this is going down to a FG type game.

Tennessee +5 – 2 star premium shared play

Texas vs Baylor -5 O/U 59

Tom Herman as a dog.   Yes we say this all the time but why the hell not this time?   Baylor had their hearts ripped out of their chests last week blowing that game to Oklahoma.   At the same time they should have lost that game by more and were very fortunate to cover being outgained by 200 yards or so.   Is Texas good this year?  No, not for their standards, but one thing that I do know is that Sam Ehlinger keeps them in games.   Last week they kept it close against Iowa State and only lost by 2.   They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma and 7 to LSU.   Those are two teams that are a good deal better than Baylor.  Now the Longhorns are facing another Texas team as an underdog and that spells major disrespect.   Texas has every reason in the world to get up and beat their little brother.  Baylor doesn’t need to win this game to win the Big 12 because they can beat Kansas next week and get another shot at Oklahoma.   Also, it isn’t a guarantee that if Baylor wins out that they make the CFB playoffs.

Texas +5 – 2 star premium shared

Duke vs Wake Forest -7 O/U 50

Am I looking at this right?  A Wake Forest game only has a total of 50 against a bad defense?   This number factors in a huge over reaction to Wake only scoring 3 points vs Clemson.  Come-on It’s Clemson!   Wake plays the fasted game in College football and Duke isn’t exactly slow.   This number also factors in that Duke hasn’t scored much their last 4 games but they at least played 3 tough defenses and had one stinker vs Syracuse.  Duke can still make a bowl game with a win here and I think they are going to go for it.  Duke give’s up 30 points per game and 5.4 yards per play.  Wake scores 32 points per game and averages 5.7 yards per play.   Before Duke hit that bad streak they scored 41 vs Georgia Tech, 30 vs Pittsburgh, 45 at Virginia tech and 41 vs Middle Tennessee.  I think they can score against Wake Forest’s weak defense.   Lastly, Duke ranks 31 in plays per game so they aren’t exactly a slow paced team either.

Over 50 – 3 star premium shared

Bonus – Penn State 1st half +10.5 and Ohio State 2nd half.  2 stars each

Colts at Texans Wk 12

By
Alan Cashman
-

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

Colts at Texans

Pick: Ind +3.5

Going to take the Colts to cover here tonight.  I don’t know if they win straight up but several things going for them it looks and feels like

 

IND 10-1-1 ATS last 12 vs teams with a  winning record

IND 6-0 ATS last 6 vs AFC South

IND 6-0-1 ATS last 7 in Houston

HOU 2-8 ATS against teams with a  winning record

Road team 8-2-2 ATS last 12 meetings

Colts seem to come out flat vs teams they are favored against and should beat and appear to get up for division games and games where they are not favored to win.  Indianapolis is 3-0 vs the AFC South this season including a win over Houston. That win followed the big Sunday night win at KC. The Colts seem to get up for these games.  They also seem to have already hit their 3-4 game lull that good teams often experience at some point in the season.

Jacoby Brissett is 4-0 in his career against Houston.  He has a 7/0 TD/INT and a 107.2 rating. He went 26 for 39, 326 yds 4 TD in the first meeting this season.  

The Colts offensive line manhandled Jacksonville on run plays in Wk 11.  Houston is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games. They are allowing 5 ypc overall on the season.  Also, the Texans are #29 in pass defense this season. They are #25 in total defense. T.Y. Hilton is now probable to play.  Hilton has over 1,500 receiving yards in 15 career games vs Houston. The Colts are without Marlon Mack but appear to have sufficient options at back in Wilkins (6.1 ypc) and Williams (7.8 ypc).  Baltimore ran for 256 yards, 6.9 ypc last weekvs the Texans.

DeShaun Watson has been sacked 13 times in his last 4 games including 6 times last week.  Watson is 1-2 career vs the Colts. He has 4/3 TD/INT and the Colts have sacked him 15 times in that span.  

Houston is 1-3 ATS against the closing line this season.

College Football Week 13 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots

  • Iowa hosting Illinois is a let down spot after beating Minnesota
  • Oklahoma at TCU – Only because it was such an exhilarating comeback.   They were favored anyways
  • Temple at Cincinnati – They were dogs to Tulane
  • West Virginia hosting Oklahoma State – They beat ranked Kansas State
  • Minnesota at Northwestern could be bad for them seeing that they lost their playoff hopes.
  • Baylor at Texas worries me a little after that gut-wrenching loss
  • Kent State hosting Ball State after that crazy comeback vs Buffalo

Get up Spots:

  • Indiana hosting Michigan after a tough Penn State game
  • Boston College at Notre Dame – They are trying to make a bowl game
  • ASU hosting Oregon – Trying to make a bowl game
  • Buffalo hosting Toledo – Trying to make a bowl game
  • Michigan State at Rutgers – if not now then when?  Can they make a bowl?
  • Tulane hosting UCF – This is a spot where they need to preform
  • Arizona hosting Utah – after a pathetic performance vs Oregon
  • Charlotte hosting Marshall – Trying to make a bowl game
  • Fresno State hosting Nevada – Trying to make a bowl game
  • NC State at Georgia Tech – They can still make a bowl game

Look ahead spots:

  • Wisconsin looking past Purdue to Minnesota
  • Minnesota looking past Northwestern to Wisconsin
  • Cincinnati looking past Temple to Memphis
  • Georgia Tech looking past NC State to Georgia
  • Michigan looking past Indiana to Ohio State
  • Notre Dame looking past Boston College to Stanford
  • Virginia looking past Liberty to Virginia Tech
  • Virginia Tech looking past Pittsburgh to Virginia

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 12 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Buffalo vs Kent State – Buffalo outgained Kent State by 95 yards yet lost mostly by an onside kick deal.

Northern Illinois vs Toledo – Toledo outgained NIU by 64 yards yet lost by 3 due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.

Wisconsin vs Nebraska – Nebraksa outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards but lost by 16.   Missed a FG but had a poor red zone appearance.

TCU vs Texas Tech – TCU outgained Tech by 148 yards and only won by 2.  They won the turnover battle 0-2 as well.  That don’t happen much..

Indiana vs Penn State – Indiana ougained Penn State by 91 yards yet lost by 7.   2-1 turnover ratio helped that.

Louisiana Monroe vs Georgia Southern – Monroe outgained Southern by 45 yards let lost by 32 due to a a 3-0 turnover ratio.

Troy vs Texas State – Troy only outgained Texas State by 55 yards yet won by 36 points.   A 4-0 turnover ratio helped.

Texas vs Iowa State – Iowa State outgained Texas by 136 yards yet only won by 2 points.   A 1-0 turnover ratio.   Texas needs a bad year to have a great year.   Like Drafting.

West Virginia vs Kansas State – Kansas State outgained West Virginia by 102 yards yet lost by 4 due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.   Maybe time to fade the Mountaineers again?

Georgia vs Auburn – Auburn outgained Georgia by 78 yards yet lost by 7.  A 1-0 turnover ratio helped but at the same time, Georgia was up 21 -0 most of that game playing prevent.

Syracuse vs Duke – Cuse outgained Duke by 116 yards but won by 23 points.   3-0 turnover ratio killed Duke.

Minnesota vs Iowa – Minnesota outgained Iowa 431 to 290 yet lost by 5 points.   141 yards of difference.  1-0 turnover ratio wasn’t enough.   It was the bad efficiency in the Red Zone.   It also killed my over.

Rice vs Middle Tennessee State – MTSU outgained Rice by 81 yards yet lost by 3 points due to a 2-0 turnover ratio.   Congrats Rice on your first win.

Louisiana vs S Alabama – South Alabama outgained Louisiana by 77 yards yet lost by 10.  Only a 1-0 turnover ratio.   They may be a good bet next game.

Air Force vs Colorado State – Colorado State outgained Airforce by 33 yards yet lost by 17.   Even turnover ratio.

Cincinnati vs South Florida – USF outgained Cinci by 150 yards yet lost by 3 with an even turnover ratio.

Louisville vs NC State – NC State outgained Lousiville by 151 yards yet lost by 14.  A 3-0 turnover ratio saw to that.

Oklahoma vs Baylor – Oklahoma outgained Baylor by 218 yards yet only won by 3.   Turnovers were close enough…   This is why i didn’t bet this game.

 

 

 

Podcast 68 – 19 – With Kyle Hunter – College Football Week 13 & NFL Week 12 Plays – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a great show for you today!  Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks is back break down some amazing games in this week’s card!   First, Kiev talks about a dream scenario with Wisconsin and then talks about Ohio State’s College Game-day reactions.  Next, Kyle comes on to discuss some NCAA Basketball trends and and a nice peek into the Big West conference.  Next, Kyle gives us a sleeper team this year for us to keep an eye on that could make some series noise in Men’s Hoops!  Then, we break down some big games in College football as well as give you some great plays for this weekend!  Shortly after, Kiev gives out a few plays of his own for college football week 13 and NFL week 12.  Finally, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA.

NCAA: Penn State vs Ohio state – Oklahoma State vs West Virginia and more!

NFL:  Green Bay vs San Francisco – Tampa Bay vs Atlanta and more!

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: Spotify | Email | TuneIn | RSS | More

Fantasy Football Week 12

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bye Weeks:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings

Key Injuries:

  • Marlon Mack RB – Fractured hand and is week to week
  • Auden Tate WR – Neck injury and day to day
  • Phillip Dorsette WR – Head injury
  • James Connor RB – AC Joint is hurting again and is questionable
  • JuJu Smith Schuster WR – Concussion
  • Dionte Johnson WR – Concussion
  • Mitch Trubisky QB – Hurt Nagys Feelings
  • Josh Oliver TE – Fractured Back out several weeks
  • Robert Woods WR – surprise inactive for the Bears.
  • Deebo Samuel WR – Injured a bit – will monitor
  • Even Engram TE – may be back this week
  • TY Hilton WR –  may be back this week

Waiver Wire:

  • Ryan Griffin TE – Jets went nuts last game and he had 109 and a TD
  • Bo Scarbrough RB – Lions bell-cow with 14 carries
  • Jonathan Williams RB – for Mack Injury
  • Nyheme Hynes RB – for Mack Injury
  • Ross Dwelley TE – Jimmy G threw 2 TDs to him due to Kittle Injury
  • Kendrick Bourne WR – Getting lots of touches and 7 targets for San Francisco
  • Anthony Miller WR – Got 11 targets last game
  • Kenny Stills WR – Got 7 targets for Houston and he is open a lot.
  • Johnny Holton WR – Just in case JuJu is out a while.

Non-starters Trending up this week:

  • Mason Rudolph QB – against the Bengals
  • Nick Chubb RB – vs the Dolphins
  • Anthony Miller WR – Got 11 targets last game and Janoris Jenkins will be on Alan Robinson next game.
  • Jaylen Samuels RB – vs the Bengals D and I think Connor is Injured
  • Baker Mayfield QB – vs the Dolphins
  • Dallas Goedart TE – vs the Seahawks
  • Ryan Griffen TE – vs Oakland’s D who gives up 4th most fantasy pts to TEs
  • Austin Hooper TE – vs the Tampa Bay Bucks if he is back that is.
  • Derius Guice RB – vs the Lions terrible D
  • Dwane Haskins QB – vs the Lions
  • Bo Scarbrough RB – vs the Redskins
  • Marvin Jones WR – vs the Redskins

Starters that will be Busts:

  • Aaron Rodgers vs the 49ers D
  • Aaron Jones vs the 49ers D
  • Dak Prescott vs the Patriots
  • Amari Cooper vs the Patriots
  • Saquon Barkley RB vs the Bears D
  • Marquise Brown WR vs the Rams D
  • Kyle Allen QB vs the Saints
  • DJ Moore WR – vs the Saints

Nasty Sleeper – Jaylen Samuels vs the Bengals

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 67 – 19 – College Football Wk 12 & NFL Wk 11 Recap – NCAA Betting Spots for Week 13 – Fantasy Football Week 12 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

10-4 in College Football last week and the 4-5-1 in the NFL.  104-94-5 up 16 units in College Football and 56-44-5 up 26 units in the NFL.  We have a great show for you today!  First, we do a College and NFL recap of last week.  Next, Kiev goes full nerd and compares the top college football teams to British royal titles.  Then, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores from College Football last week.  Next, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 13.   Finally,  we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 13!  D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 12.   Key injuries and waiver pick-ups.   Players trending up and busts for week 12.

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.Jazzsports.ag and use the promo code, “oddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: Spotify | Email | TuneIn | RSS | More

NFL Week 11 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Arizona vs San Francisco -11.5 O/U 45

The over under is very telling in this game to me.   It is saying that the 49ers will most likely have some good defense here yet may struggle a bit on offense.  The Cardinals are quietly averaging 22.2 points per game while giving up 28 on a very hard schedule.   The 49ers average 29 points per game and just give up an average of 14.   This tells me the 49ers should score at least 31 and the Cardinals 19.   So why the low total?   Because of the injuries in this game.  The 49ers are missing some key components in their offense in George Kittle and 2 offensive Lineman.   Emanual Sanders is also hurt.    They are also down a bunch of defensive players which makes me think that the Cardinals should score a few extra points here.   The fact that both of these teams have played each other already tells me that there should be no intimidation and the spread should not be that big.  My power ratings have this game at around 9.5 points factoring in the injuries and I think with a guy like Kyler Murray, you could see some 4th quarter points being scored.  I’ll take the redbirds.

Cardinals +11.5 –  2 star premium shared

Bears vs Rams -6.5 O/U 41.5

So the Bears are obviously challenged on offense but the big thing for me here is that the Bears have not scored many points this year and yet their defense has really been holding up.   Even with all of their woes their defense has held opponents to 17 points per game and 4.9 yards per play.   The Rams on the other hand have lost their deep threat this game in Brandon Cooks and they also just lost 2 offensive lineman to injury.   This tells me that the Bears should be able to get some pressure here and rattle Jared Goff.   He doesn’t not play well when Rattled as we called out last week against the Steelers.  If you haven’t figured out already, I am liking the under.  Being that a desperate 4th quarter Mitch is prone to throwing or fumbling the ball causing a defensive touchdown I like the first half under even better.  The bears average only 8 points per game in the first half and the Rams will ease their way into this game.

Under 20.5 – 1.5 star premium shared and under 40 – 1 star play

Atlanta vs Carolina -5.5 O/U 49.5

Have you noticed that since Kyle Allen came aboard that Carolina is 2-0 at home?   It’s a good 2-0 because both games vs Jacksonville and Tennessee were not close.   Atlanta on the other hand is still celebrating that they beat the Saints and probably forgot that they shouldn’t of saved their coach Dan Quinn’s Job.   They also lost their starting running back in Devonta Freeman and I am not sure that 4th string running back Brian Hill can make up for the routs, and the blocking.  Atlanta is bad at running the football but good at passing it and this is where the main matchup handicap comes in.   Carolina is ranked 3rd in defensive passing efficiency on football outsiders and if they can stop that, then they can win by double digits.  Before the Saints upset from the Falcons and the Panthers loss to the huge home field advantage to the Packers, this line was more of a -7.5   My power ratings have it -9.5.   Take Carolina -5.5 against the let downs spot.

Carolina -5.5 – 3 star premium shared

 

 

 

College Football Week 12 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Indiana vs Penn State -15.5 O/U 55

So Penn State was upset last week and had some of their issues exposed.  The truth of the matter is that, unlike Michigan and Wisconsin, they still actually may control their own destiny because if Penn State wins out, and beat Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big 10 Championship, they will certainly make the college football playoffs due to Oklahoma’s worse loss to Kansas State and Georgia’s worse loss to South Carolina.   The big question is if Oregon wins out, it would be hard for a biased committee to put only 1 SEC team in and there would be utter Chaos.   Even though Penn State shouldn’t have one of those let down after the loss spots, they are still a team had an easy non-conference schedule and have gotten outgained for 4 games.   Indiana has a nice +1.3 net yards per play while Penn State is at +1.9.   That is a net .6 yards per play for the Nittney Lions.   The fact that Indiana has done well on the Road against Michigan State, Maryland and Nebraska gives me confidence to take them as an over 2 touchdown dog here.  Lastly, don’t think for one second that Penn State may not be looking past Indiana to Ohio State next week.

Indiana +15.5 – 3 star premium shared

Central Michigan vs Ball State -2.5 O/U 59

When handicapping this game, I think that there are 2 things to look at.   The fact that both teams average over 30 points per game and the fact that both teams give up a decent amount of points to below average teams.   27 for Central Michigan and 30 for Ball State.  There should be motivation on both sides here because there is a huge tie for first place in the Mac West with 4 teams including them at 2 losses.   Being that both of these teams are at a higher pace of play than average, I have to think over on this game.

Central Michigan vs Ball State over 59 – 3 star premium shared

Minnesota vs Iowa -3 O/U 44.5

Minnesota vs Iowa -3 O/U 44.5 – I have this game at a pickem but this is a perfect spot for Iowa to get a big win.  Let down spot for Minnesota.   The Gophers have a .65 yard per play advantage but let’s face it.   They have played nobody besides Penn State.   They were also outgained by 48 yards against Penn State.   The big thing for me is that they played only 3 road games and gave up over 30 points to Fresno State and Purdue.  Rutgers can’t even really be counted.   The keys for me for this Handicap here is that Minnesota averages 38 points per game and 6.4 yards per play.   I really think this is the game that Iowa puts some points on the board but I can also see Minnesota getting back into this game later.    Iowa has had a much harder schedule than Minnesota ranking 24th in the nation to Minnesota’s 70th but Iowa still manages to average 24 points a game.   I think that they should put up at least that amount of points after a string of tough defenses that they have played.

Iowa vs Minnesota over 44.5 – 1.5 star premium shared play

Bonus play – Michigan -13.5 vs State – Big bro vs Little bro.   Harbaugh will run up the score.  State is very injured as well.

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