Week 8 NFL @TheCashmanwins

By

Alan Cashman

-

October 27, 2019

Off of a 5-2 day Member/Personal Plays in CFB.

Here is Week 8 NFL.

Eagles at Bills 1 pm

Pick: Eagles +3.5/Small (Bought 1 point)

I am going to take the Eagles. Hard to imagine them going to 3-5 and really hard to imagine the Bills at 6-1 with Josh Allen at QB.

The Dolphins out gained the Bills last week. Buffalo could only win that game by 10 in Buffalo. The Bills have unimpressive 1 pt and 4 pt wins over the Jets and Bengals. They failed to cover at home vs Miami and the Bengals.

Meanwhile the Eagles are coming off of 2 disappointing road losses, albeit, to the Vikings and Cowboys who will likely be in contention at the end of the season. The Eagles had 7 turnovers between those 2 losses and had 400 total yards against the Vikings defense at Minnesota.

Philly isn’t that far removed from a dominant home win over the Jets and going into Green Bay to hand the Packers their only loss so far.

Despite the Eagles woes on defense, it stems from their pass d, as their run defense is #6 in the league. The Bills only out gained the Giants by 18 yds with Eli still in at QB. I don’t see Buffalo dominating with their offense. Their defense is good, no doubt but it really has not been tested.

Supposed to be a lot of wind here so expecting a lower scoring game that should allow the Eagles to keep it close which I think they would anyway.

Buccaneers at Titans 1 pm

Pick: Tampa +3.5/Very Small (Bought 1 point)

I like Tampa here. Winston is coming off of a horrible outing, in another country vs a pretty good team in Carolina. The Tampa QB threw 5 picks in that game, and the team had 7 turnovers in the game. The narrative has been “Same Ole Winston”. However, prior to that game, Winston had been improving. Prior to the Carolina game, since Wk 1, Winston had a 10/2 TD/INT ratio. Tampa had only 2 turnovers in the previous 4 games. Tampa still out gained Carolina by over 100 yards in that loss.

With all of those turnovers, Tampa is only -2 on the season in turnover margin

The Bucs have a good coach and are a very good offensive team, #4 in scoring offense. They are only 3 games removed from putting up 55 points in a win at the Rams. Tampa also quietly has the #1 rush defense in the league. They have allowed over 100 yd rushing only once, 112 at the Saints 2 games ago.

The Titans are not going to be rescued by Tannehill at QB. He already has as many INTs as Mariota had (2). They are better at running the ball but still only gaining 3.1 ypc over the last 3 games. The Titans were shutout at Denver and have a home loss to the Bills by 7 and lost by 13 to a very average Jacksonville team at Jacksonville.

This will be the most explosive team the Titans have faced. Turnovers by Tampa are a concern but the Titans D have not had more than 1 takeaway in any of their last 4 games. 1 in each.

Also, Tennessee is last in the league in sacks allowed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tampa come away with a win in this one.

Bengals vs Rams 1 pm

Pick: Rams -10/Small (Bought 1 point)

Bengals are giving up over 5 ypc this season. They are last in the league in run defense. This should be a good chance to see if Todd Gurley can get it going again and if he can, the passing game should open up and allow the Rams to have a big game offensively.

Cincinnati’s offense has 2 or more turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games and in 4 of their 6 games this season. Their defense has just 1 takeaway in their last 3 games. The Bengals are -9 in turnover margin for the season. They are also #27 in sacks allowed. Cincinnati is gaining only 2.9 ypc this season while the Rams allow 3.4. Dalton is likely going to have to throw a lot, probably under pressure and the Rams have Ramsey now at CB to help out.

I don’t see how the Bengals keep this within 10.

NFL Week 8 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 27, 2019

Green Bay vs Kansas City +5 O/U 47.5

Ok, so let me ask you what this game would be if Mahomes was playing. It would be Kansas City -5. So basically the line move is saying that Mahomes is worth 9.5 – 10 points. I have to disagree with that. Andy Reid is an offensive genius and he can make players like Alex Smith and Kevin Kolb look like top guys. I think the step down to Matt Moore is more of a 3.5 to 4 point downgrade initially. We have to remember that the Packers are still -.1 net yards per play and they will not be in the lovely confines of Lambeau field here. With Mahomes the Chiefs are a +1.2 yard per play and I think the downgrade shouldn’t be a huge issue in this situation.

Kansas City +4.5 – 2 star premium shared

LA Chargers vs Chicago -4 O/U 40.5

Ok, this is ugly. Very ugly but I have to do this. The Chargers are in a bad situation here with their second straight road game going in against a very pissed of Bears team. We all know that Mitch Trubisky has been terrible but at least he has faced some top defenses. The Chargers are a 0 in net yards per play and at least the Bears are a +.5. The Chargers have now lost another starting offensive lineman in guard Forrest Lamp and are plagued with a plethora of guys that are questionable. I honestly think that Anthony Lynn has lost this team this year. The book on beating this team is taking away 3 players. Hunter Henry, the pass catching running backs weather it be Gordon or Eckler, and safety over the top of Keenan Allen if he even plays. The Bears D line should have a field day getting to Rivers as it is. This is a game that Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky needs to shut up the critics Power ratings have this game by -5 but the situation says to play the -4.

Chicago -4 – 2.5 star premium play

Tampa Bay vs Tennessee -2.5 O/U 45.5

I really hate betting on Jameis Winston but I have to take this game for many of the same reasons I took them against the Rams. Tampa is coming off of a bye week after that bad game in London and has had some extra rest to face a terrible offense and a questionable defense. Now I know that Tampa has the worst pass defense in the league but at last they played the toughest schedule up to this point. The Titans schedule ranks 24th so the do not get any love there. Tennessee is now all high and mighty after beating a banged up Chargers team with a switch at quarterback to Ryan Tannahill. Let’s be honest guys, going from Mariotta to Tannahill is like upgrading your transportation from the bus to the subway.

Tampa Bay +2.5 – 2 star premium shared

College Football Week 9 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 25, 2019

Tulane vs Navy +3.5 O/U 52

This one is simple for me. Tulane is in a good spot here losing to an angry Memphis team. Now Navy is the best triple option team in football but Tulane has proven they can stop it by beating Army this year by 9 points and that was at Army. Tulane has a very good offense at 6.7 yards per play and only allowing 5.2 on defense certainly helps. Navy has a good offense to at 6.4 yards per play and a solid defense only allowing 4.6 but they haven’t played a ranked team and their toughest game was vs Memphis where they also lost by double digits. Tulane is in a get up spot here after losing to Memphis where they did not get beat on the ground. It was turnovers and in the air. Navy can’t throw the ball well and I love the Green Wave to cover and also get the W.

Tulane +3.5 – 3 star premium shared and sprinkle

Indiana vs Nebraska +1 O/U 51.5

This is a low total for looking at how Nebraska plays this game. Scott Frost likes to play a fast pace and their defense hasn’t showed much when they have played teams with a pulse. Indiana has quietly been showing some serious offense this year averaging 33 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. The only game they didn’t score 30 was against Ohio State and that is quite understandable. The reason this total is so low is the injuries at QB to Michael Penix from Indiana and Taylor Martinez for Nebraska. I think Martinez plays because he had a chance to play 2 weeks ago against Minnesota and now the Huskers got a bye week to add some rest. Michael Penix is good but even if he doesn’t play, Peyton Ramsey has all the experience in the world to score some points against a bad defense. I like the over a lot here.

Over 51.5 – 3 star premium shared play

Troy vs Georgia State -1 O/U 67

This one is pretty simple to me. Both teams have bad defenses with Troy allowing 5.9 yards per play and Georgia State allowing 6.6. Neither team has even played a Ranked team this year yet those numbers are pretty staggering. Another thing to look at is that both of these teams average 35 points per game on offense and 5.9 yards per play. This game is important in the Sun belt for both of these teams so they both will be motivated here. Looking at Pace you can also slot these teams in the top 10 playing at a pace of over 80 plays per game. The fact that this game is in a dome spells lots of yards and lots of offense. I like the over in this game and you should get it early.

Over 67 – 2 star premium shared

Troy vs Georgia State over 67 – 3 star premium shared

Week 9 CFB and NHL Analytics Files @TheCashmanwins

By

Alan Cashman

-

October 25, 2019

Week 9 CFB Analytics, Included w any of my Picks Subscriptions

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_oXCRDV09MWpo3fONwXtoRh6PXcLYpmJ4azOxrNpvtk/edit?usp=sharing

NHL Analytics

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_4gBVNLce5XxRwbQByQzHhMbUyKkQ2I3N3oHdyj0G7o/edit?usp=sharing

Memphis at Tulsa CFB Wk 9 @TheCashmanWins

By

Alan Cashman

-

October 25, 2019

Memphis at Tulsa

Pick: Memphis -9.5/-120 (bought 1 point form -10.5)/Small

Bought 1 point to get it the spread under 10. I don’t like taking road favorites at this big of a line but Memphis is really rolling. They had a hiccup at Temple, if you can call it that as Temple is good. Memphis lost that 30-28 and then bounced back at home to blow out Tulane 47-17.

Memphis has a distinct advantage on offense. They are #24 in total offense, #14 in scoring offense while Tulsa is #90 in total offense and #107 in scoring. Tulsa may come out stingy on defense but they don’t have enough on offense and I think Memphis eventually can pull away with their offensive ability.

Away/Home

Off	Avg	Yards	Pass	Rush	Y/R	Y/A
MEM TLSA	40.7 20.7	519.0 385.3	276.7 282.0	242.3 103.3	6.4 2.5	9.2 6.3
Def	Avg	Yards	Pass	Rush	Y/R	Y/A
MEM TLSA	23.0 35.3	426.3 428.7	243.0 139.3	183.3 289.3	4.2 6.3	6.8 7.1

Last 3

MEM TLSA	42.3 22.3	499.0 400.0	323.3 281.0	175.7 119.0	5.1 3.3	9.9 6.3
Def	Avg	Yards	Pass	Rush	Y/R	Y/A
MEM TLSA	26.7 37.3	454.7 393.3	256.3 172.3	198.3 221.0	4.7 4.5	6.9 7.5

Virginia at Louisville Week 9 CFB

By

Alan Cashman

-

October 25, 2019

Follow me on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

Virginia at Louisville 3:30 pm

Pick: Louisville +3.5/Lean

I like Louisville in this spot. UVA coming off of a blowout win at home against Duke. A very misleading score of 48-14. Duke had 5 turnovers, 3 of those lost fumbles while putting together drives. UVA only outgained Duke by 57 and only outrushed them by 22 and Duke is not a really good run team outside of their dual threat QB. Louisville will bring more of a threat on the ground with the #22 run attack. UVA got out rushed by 174 at Notre Dame. They were out gained at home by ODU by 26.

Louisville is not a good defensive team but Virginia is not a good offensive team. I hear a lot about how good UVA QB Perkins is. He completed 50 % of his passes and had zero TD passes out of those 48 points that UVA scored vs Duke. He has an 8/7 TD/INT ratio on the season. UVA does not run the ball well. Taulapapa leads the team in rushing with 287 yds in 7 games. Louisville struggles vs teams that can run the ball. They are not good vs pass either but running teams kill them. Virginia doesn’t do either very well.

Louisville has the #27 offense, Virginia is prone to turn the ball over. UVA is 1-3-1 ATS on the road. Louisville has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, the loss being last season when the Cardinals were really down. I like Louisville in this one.

Podcast 60 – 19 – With ESPN’s Chris Fallica and WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels – College Football Week 9 & NFL Week 8 – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 24, 2019

College Football - Season Win totals - ESPN - Chris Fallica - Ralph Michaels - Wagertalk — www.theoddsbreakers.com

We have a HUGE show for you today! ESPN’s ‘The Bear’ Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica and Wagertalk’s Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV from is back to break down some amazing games in this week’s card! First, we about how much time Ralph and Chris spend on research. Next, We get into how Wisconsin let down last week against Illinois. Then, we break down the biggest games in College football as well as give you some great plays for this weekend! Shortly after, Kiev gives out a few plays of his own and goes through the card for NFL week 8. Then, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA. Finally, Kiev gives out his College Football week 9 free plays and a final play at the end

NCAA: Wisconsin vs Ohio State – Tulane vs Navy – Texas vs TCU – Notre Dame vs Michigan – Washington State vs Oregon – Auburn vs LSU and more!

NFL: LA Chargers vs Chicago Bears – Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis – Green Bay vs Kansas City and more!

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

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College Football Week 9 Betting Spots

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 23, 2019

Let down spots:

Illinois at Purdue after beating Wisconsin

Penn State at Michigan State due to their huge locker room celebration after winning as a 7.5 point favorite

Oregon at Washington state is a let down spot after beating Washington

BYU, Oregon State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt have bye weeks after their big wins

Get up Spots:

Western Michigan vs Bowling Green after losing to a bad Eastern Michigan team

Rice hosting southern Miss. They need a win badly

Oklahoma State at Iowa State after losing to Baylor

TCU hosting Texas after losing to Kansas State

Temple hosting UCF is interesting after they lost bad to SMU – The AAC is loaded this year by the way

Look Ahead Spots:

SMU looking past Houston to Memphis

Memphis looking past Tulsa to SMU

Oregon looking past Washington State to USC – this is a sandwich

USC could be looking past Colorado to Oregon

Utah could be looking past Cal to Washington

Florida and Georgia both have byes

College Football Week 8 Misleading Scores

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 23, 2019

Wisconsin vs Illinois – Wisconsin outgained Illinois by 105 yards and lost. 3-1 turnover ratio hurt

UNLV vs Fresno State – Fresno only outgained UNLV by 70 yards yet won by 29 points. 5-0 turnover ratio. Maybe value on fading Fresno next game.

Florida vs South Carolina – South Carolina outgained Florida by 33 yards get lost by 11. Bad efficiency

Houston vs UCONN – UCONN outgained Houston by 154 yards yet still lost by 7. Only 1 turnover for the Huskies.

TCU vs Kansas State – TCU outained Kstate by 100 yards yet lost by 7. No turnovers and bad efficiency

New Mexico vs Wyoming – NM outgained Wyoming by 27 yards yet lost by 13

Tulsa vs Cincinnati – Tulsa outgained Cincinnati by 60 yards and lost – 5-2 turnover ratio

Michigan vs Penn State – Michigan outgained Penn State by 134 yards and still lost. Officials blew it for them in the first half.

Texas A&M vs Mississippi – Ole Miss outgained A&M by 68 yards yet lost by 7.

The Paperclip Picks from Martinsville 10/27/19

By

Paul Napier

-

October 22, 2019

Over all went 2 and 1 last week and because of that plus twenty units. Great week for sure. I feel like we are not in Kansas anymore, Toto… On to Martinsville! Just a quick note here. This week’s race can be kinda a crapshoot. Because of that, I am calling this the wild card of the third round of the playoffs and because of that, this weeks wagers will once again be small.

Got me thinking the Paperclip at Martinsville!

William Byron -115 vs Alex Bowman -115

Interesting little match up here. Both drivers were eliminated after last weeks race in Kansas. With both drivers in head to head matchups in their last 3 (that’s all the races Byron has there) Bowman the showman won all 3. Bowman has a 12.67 average in those 3 while Byron has an average of 27 during that same time frame. Gonna go small here and take AB in a 7.5 unit wager.

Joey Logano +115 vs Denny Hamlin -145

Here is a match up of drivers that finished 1 and 2 at last years fall race at Martinsville. These two have been very evenly matched during their last 5 at the paperclip. Logano has an average of 10.8 while Hamiln is 11.2 in their last 5 races. During that time in head to head matchups, Logano took 3 out of the 5 races. Because of that last stat, I am looking at Logano in a small 4 unit wager to win this one!

Keep checking back with me on twitter to see the latest on these matchups as well as possibilities of additional info and picks.

Don’t forget to check out theoddsbreakers latest podcast Playing The Odds Nascar style, for some history, track facts, and trends and an additional pick! If you like what you hear shoot me a message on twitter @NASCARstyleodds. Until next week, keep researching, keep reading, and keep winning.