Huge win for the Packers at Dallas last week! This was just another Jason Garrett coaching deficiency going against a young Matt Lefleur. The Packers ran all over this team which made them able to set up play-action and put the Cowboys in desperation pass mode. Dak Prescott’s 3 picks didn’t really help either. This will be harder to accomplish against a rested Lions team coming off the bye. Detroit has played a very challenging schedule vs Kansas City, the Chargers and the Eagles. They are battle tested and sitting nicely to play their first divisional game. The biggest thing here for me is that Detroit ranks above Green Bay in net yards per play by .4. The Lions could easily be 4-0 this year. This game should be a 3 point spread because of the rested Lions team.
Detroit +4.5
Atlanta vs Arizona +2.5 O/U 51.5
This game is all about the spot here. Arizona just got their first win in Cincinnati and now it is time to come back to earth. Atlanta has had a brutal 1-4 start and need to get a W to get back into this or Dan Quinn will be history. I know that Atlanta is a bit beat up on defense and all but it isn’t as bad as Arizona’s injury report. Matt Ryan is a bad road QB but he is good in a dome and playing at State Farm Stadium will help him feel like he is right at home. Atlanta has a net .5 yards per play difference while playing the 6th hardest schedule in football. The Cardinals schedule ranks 24th. I like the spot here and take the dirty birds -2.5
Last week was actually a pretty good week, despite our results. I had a lot of plays in mind and the ones I didn’t release but still wagered on hit, including some totals that I was pretty confident in. The plays I released, though, got a little rough. The Bears and the Browns both let us down, but we live, we learn, and we grow! This week, the slate is pretty tough. I’ve found two decent spots, though.
We’re going back to the Browns on this one. Seattle comes in at 4-1, trailing the Niners by half a game for the NFC West. (Side note: boy did we miss on the Niners last week). Seattle is actually a very good road team, having won ATS in five of their last six away from Seattle. Four of the last five have gone over. I think this is actually a sneaky shootout potential game. Look for Baker to get right here. Seattle has allowed the fifth most passing yards in the league and only three picks. The Browns have the fourth worst rushing defense, allowing an average of 150.8 rushing yards per game. Given that Seattle likes to run, and the Browns suck at stopping the run, I believe the Seahawks ride Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to an early lead, causing Baker to have to throw repeatedly. Pete Carroll is not one to take his foot off the gas, so take Seattle and take the over.
The Titans travel to Mile High to take on the Broncos in a defensive battle. Both defenses are good, tough, bruising D’s and both offenses are pretty horrid. The O/U at 40.5 makes sense here. It’s scary to take an under on a total that low, but that’s what I thought last week with the Bills/Titans O/U. I think the under hits for a couple reasons. First, both teams consistently go under. The Titans have gone under in four in a row, four of the first five games, with the total going no more than 36 in that span. The Broncos have indeed gone over in two of their last three, but the Packers game went over by 1.5, so it was pretty close. Additionally, before that the Broncos had ELEVEN regular season games in a row go under. Yep. From October 28, 2018 until September 22, 2019, all the Broncos games went under. The Broncos as an organization just tend to go under. The under is 20-9-1 in the last 30 Broncos’ regular season games. Take the under.
DEN Broncos/TEN Titans under 40.5, (-110), 2u
Fade of the week:
Dallas, -8 AND Minnesota, -3 – This is a two-for. The Cowboys are overrated, they’re playing on the road, and against a Jets team that just got back their starting QB. Not saying the ‘Boys lose but wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail to cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles have one of the most elite run defenses and the Vikings have trouble winning games they’re supposed to throw in.
Parlay of the week:
CAR/TB OVER 47.5, SEA ML, HOU ML, WAS ML, LAR ML, DEN ML, GB ML (+5959)
This Sunday I’ll be at the TV all day so follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) as in-game plays can, and will be, released!
Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger (11) celebrates the end of the first quarter against Oklahoma State during an NCAA college football game at Royal-Memorial Stadium, Saturday, Sept. 21, 2019. [Stephen Spillman for Statesman]
Florida Vs LSU -13 O/U 54.5
LSU has been a points scoring team this year averaging 54 a game themselves. Florida has been winning off of pure defense but neither team has really been challenged yet. Since Joe Brady arrived at LSU, this team has been playing at a wicked pace of 78 plays per game and that doesnt factor in some of the 4th quarters that they just were able to run the clock out. Florida on the other hand has played slowly but will have to pick up the pace in order to compete with LSU. LSU leads the nation in points per game as we pointed out at 54 and they are 5th in yards per play at 7.7. Florida averages 32 points per game and 6.6 yards per play themselves and they have a better QB now with Kyle Trask at the helm. LSU also doesn’t have a great defense ranking 76th in efficiency and allowing 20 points per game to an easy schedule. I see some points being scored this game and will take the over 54.5
Over 54.5 – 2 star premium shared
Penn State vs Iowa +4.5 O/U 42.5
Here is the game that should prove me right or wrong about Penn State. I definitely had to upgrade them during the season and especially after that Maryland game but they still haven’t played anyone. Their only road game was Maryland and now they have to face a pissed off Iowa team with a great D. Iowa ranks 30th in defensive yards per play at 4.8 and 3rd in points allowed at 8.8. They have played teams such as Michigan and Iowa State. The best team that Penn State has played was Pittsburgh and they were outgained and should have lost if it wasn’t for a coaching error on the other side. Penn State’s D ranks very high even though they haven’t played anybody but this is the spot they get tested. Iowa needs this game bad since Wisconsin beat Michigan. The low total screams to take the points. Iowa is over 70% ATS as a home dog since 2001. My Power ratings have Iowa -1. Take the home dog.
Iowa +4.5 – 2.5 star premium shared and sprinkle ML
Oklahoma vs Texas +11 O/U 75
Another shootout here. Texas is desperate to run the table in hopes to regain their playoff hopes. Oklahoma is on a revenge tour with Jalen Hurts and has done well. While this total is very high it also indicates that Texas will score here. Oklahoma hasn’t played a top 60 team in defensive efficiency. They also only ranks 64th in opponent yards per play at 5.5. They have’t played a top 40 team in total efficiency either. The Longhorns haven’t played a very hard schedule either but at least they went toe to toe with LSU and played Oklahoma State and at West Virginia. Texas always plays well against Oklahoma and Tom Herman is 8-3-1 as a dog.
We have a quick podcast for you for this weekend’s games. Kiev is still on vacation but finds some time to give out his College and NFL plays. We also go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA.
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
We have a fantastic but fast show for you today! Kiev is on vacation in San Diego but still found some time to find everyone some value this week. We first start with a quick recap. Next, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores. Then, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 7. Finally, we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 7! D-Nasty sent us a quick write-up for fantasy. Key injuries and waiver pick-ups. Players trending up and busts for week 6.
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus! Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
Well the Titans sure looked good in Atlanta but that was pretty much due to one guy named AJ Brown. I think the Bills have proved enough this year with that monster defense. They held Brady to one of his all time low QB ratings last game at 19.5. Buffalo ranks 2nd in defensive yards per game at 28 and 5th in points per game at 15.8. They actually also have a decent offense ranking 9th in yards per game while Tennessee ranks 25th. The Bills also rank higher in Overall efficiency DVOA at 9th to Tennessee’s 13th. The Titans need to establish the run to open up the passing game because Mariota just isn’t top tier talent. Buffalo ranks 7th against the run. I think even with Matt Barkley the Bills have a chance to win this one outright. Taking Buffalo with the points and I like it down to 1.5
Buffalo +3 – 2 star premium shared
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh -4 O/U 44
What is better in the gambling world than a home dog? A home dog over 3 points in the NFL? Maybe. Baltimore was a lot of smoke and mirrors when they started out the season against Miami, Arizona and the Kansas City defense. Now teams have film on Lamar and these games should titan up a little. For this game the stats will completely go against me here because of 1 huge discrepancy. That is the strength of schedule. On Sagarin Baltimore ranks 29th in that and Pittsburgh ranks 5th. As a matter of fact, Sagarin has Pittsburgh power rated ahead of Baltimore! Now I am not going to go that far but I do have this game as a Pickem due to Pitts Home field in my power ratings. It looks to me that Mason Rudolf has been coming along nicely being 24-28 with 2 TDs. I have to go with the points here for the home doggy dog in a rivalry and like it anywhere above 2.
Pittsburgh +4 – 2 stars premium shared and sprinkle
Jacksonville vs Carolina Over 41
Two years ago I would be betting the under here but my how things have changed. This is a bold one but I like these 2 young QBs a lot and I think they will be in a little bit of a shootout here. Kyle Allen has completed over 70% of his passes the last 2 games and Garner Minshew and his mustache has put up some points. I also like the fact that Jalen Ramsey is not playing these games. Jacksonville’s D is good but not great as it was a few years ago. Carolina’s D looks good only because they played an easier schedule ranking 20th and they still give up 20 points per game. This total is too low here for these 2 young gun-slingers in this day and age of the NFL.
Jacksonville vs Carolina Over 41 – 3 star premium shared
Teaser: Going to tease the Giants to +11.5 and the Falcons to +11 – 2 star
I took a much-needed break to settle into the new apartment, and now we’re back with some of my favorite action in week five! It’s hard to believe that as of Monday night we are ¼ of the way through the fantasy season and just about that much through the regular season. We spend so many months waiting and waiting, and then it all goes so quickly!
We nailed the Cardinals bet last article in Week two, and we’re looking to go two for two here. The Cardinals are decent on the road, having covered in three of their last four. Let’s also not forgot that since their week one performance the Bengals have been dreadful. They’re getting outscored by 17 ppg since week one. And I believe that week one performance was more of a reflection on issues in Seattle that have gone unnoticed rather than the Bengals competing with Russell Wilson. The Bengals’ offensive line is horrid, and they just lost by 24 to a Steelers team led by Mason Rudolph. We saw the Cardinals put up a decent fight against the Ravens in Baltimore, so look for them to outright win here in Cincy. Additionally, both defenses are bad. How bad? The total is at 47. Cincinnati gives up 27.5 points per game this season while Arizona gives up 28.75 points per game this year. If they even hit their averages they’ll go over. Remember when the Bengals gave up 41 to Jimmy G and the Cardinals gave up 38 to Kyle Allen? Arizona can’t seem to stop anyone, especially if you play tight end. The over has hit in five of the last six at home in Cincy. Pound it.
ARI Cardinals ML, (+145), 2u
ARI Cardinals/Cincinnati Bengals OVER 47, (-110), 3u
Chicago Bears “@” Oakland Raiders – Sunday, 10/06/2019, 10 AM Pacific (in London)
The Raiders draw the short end of the stick, using a “home” game across the pond in London. London is full of Bears fans, so I expect them to show up for Chicago. Trubisky is out with a dislocated shoulder, but Chase Daniel is no Blake Bortles. He posted a QBR of 101.4 against a very tough Vikings defense – a passing defense ranked 10th in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed. The Raiders looked mighty impressive in the early going against the Colts, but of their four TDs last week, one was scored on defense and one was scored on a 60-yard run with a hole bigger than a dancing elephant. You won’t find that with Chicago. The Bears have the 4th best rushing defense in the league. You saw it last week with the Vikes. They stopped arguably the hottest runner in the NFL right now in Dalvin Cook and made Kirk Cousins beat them through the air (hint: he didn’t). Don’t tell me Derek Carr is better than Cousins. In London games, the Raiders are 1-3 all-time only covering in their win. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC West. All signs point towards Chi-town. Oh yeah, the Bears are 7-1 to the under in their last eight regular season games to boot.
CHI Bears -5.5, (-110), 3u
CHI Bears/OAK Raiders UNDER 40.5, (-110), 2u
OAK Raiders TT UNDER 17, (-115), 1u
Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers – Monday, 10/07/2019, 5:15 PM Pacific
This is a really interesting spot to me. You have a 3-0 San Francisco team that joins the Chiefs and the Patriots as the last undefeated teams in the league. That’s right, you probably knew already but we’re grouping Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers with Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and those two AFC powers. One look at the Niners’ first three weeks should tell you a lot; they beat the Bengals, the Steelers, and the Bucs. The only team worth a damn there is Tampa, and in week one they clearly were still learning Bruce Arians’ system. Meanwhile, the Browns took a couple weeks but looked damn impressive against the Ravens last week, knocking me out of my survivor pool in the process. Yet they travel to NorCal as 3.5-point dogs? This implies that the game would be a pick ‘em on a neutral site. Not a chance. It takes offenses some time to gel (see the Bucs/Rams game last week for proof), and the Browns are gellin’ like a felon. They’re gellin’ harder than Dr. Scholes. Look for OBJ to get going in this one. Every year in the NHL you can pound against teams that are coming back after their week off. Do you know why? It’s because athletes thrive on consistency. They want a routine. They want to play games, have practices, meals, and workouts at the same times on the same days. When you get extra time off, too much time off, it throws you off your routine. We print money all around the all-star break in the NHL every year so try to follow those trends in the NFL too. SF is coming off a bye all the way into a Monday night game. They will have had 15 days off. Your proof lies in the fact that the Niners have failed to cover in their last SEVEN games after a bye for the last seven years. They’re actually 2-12-1 ATS after a bye since 2004. I love this bet. If I could only make one this week, it would be the Browns ATS.
CLE Browns +3.5, (-110), 3u
CLE Browns ML, (+165), 2u
CLE Browns TT OVER 21.5, (+100), 1u
Fade of the week:
Kansas City, -12.5 – Something feels different about both the Chiefs and the Colts. Everyone expected the Colts to be terrible without Luck, but they’re not. Everyone expected the Chiefs to prove the Lions were a fluke, but they didn’t. Proceed with caution.
Parlay of the week:
BAL ML, CHI ML, NYG/MIN OVER 43.5, TB ML, ATL/HOU OVER 49, LAC ML, CLE ML (+6800)
Follow me on Twitter (@jksportsbets) as in-game plays get released every so often – it just depends on what my Sundays look like! Have fun watching, good vibes for your fantasy teams, and I’ll be back next week.
Lots of people have Texas in a look ahead spot to Oklahoma but do you know why it’s not? Because the loss to LSU is still like a fresh wound and they want to show that they can be a championship contender. As we already know, West Virginia has a new coach and new team that only returned 7 starters last year. They haven’t played a ranked team yet they are currently at -.5 yards per play. Texas has played 2 ranked teams including LSU and is a positive .66 yards per play. I don’t love the Longhorn’s defense this year but it should be enough to stop a bad offense and the second worst team in the big 12 this year.
Texas – 10 – 2 star premium shared
Troy vs Missouri -26 O/U 67
What do these two teams have in common? Speed baby speed! Missouri is the fasted paced team at 87 plays per game while troy ranks 5th at 84. What else do these teams have in common? They score lots of points and get yards. Troy averaged 40 points per game at 508 yards while Missouri averages 38 points per game and 447 yards per game. Both teams are also pretty efficient on offense at 13 yards per point. I do not think their defenses are that good. Troy allows 30 points per game in a bad conference and Missouri’s 15 PPG numbers are skewed due to playing against injuries and some terrible teams. I have this game going all the way to 83.
Over 67 – 3 star premium shared
Iowa vs Michigan -3.5 O/U 48 – I have this game to 43. The last game was 14-13. Iowa has the 3rd most efficient defense in the league allowing a crazy 29 yards per point . I have to think that the Michigan D steps up this game at home against Iowa’s sometimes predictable offense. Iowa’s D has only allowed 8.5 points per game and Michigan’s has allowed 19 due to the Wisconsin debacle. When Michigan stepped up in class to Wisconsin, they scored 14 points and Iowa against Iowa State scored 18. Both QBs Patterson and Stanley will take care of the ball in this important game. Iowa’s schedule has been easy minus the Iowa State game. I do have Iowa actually keeping it close and lean them +3.5 points.
Under 48 – 2 star premium shared
Quick hitter: Cincinnati +4 or way better. Remember the UCF vs Pitt game? Well Cinci may be better than Pitt and they are in a good revenge spot here. I have this game in my power ratings at Pickem in Cincinnati so this will be a small ML play as well.
