This will be a shorter write up today– we’re prepping to have family over and you know how that is, busy busyyyyy– but it doesn’t mean this post contains any less research or expertise. After another winning night Thursday (3-2), we move on to Friday’s picks!

Wizards -8 (-110), 2 units and Westbrook over 54.5 P/R/A (-110), 2 units: The Wizards still aren’t guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament to make the playoffs so today is hugely important for Washington. Their final game of the season is against the Hornets, a team that’s much more challenging than their foe in the Cavaliers tonight, so I expect Washington to take advantage and get a big win here. If they do get the W, the Bulls are officially knocked out of the postseason and the Cinderella-like Wizards are in. You can’t get better motivation than that. Expect a big game from the NBA’s leading triple-double master in Russel Westbrook, too, as he puts his team squarely on his shoulders with Bradley Beal still sitting out.

76ers -14 (-110), 2 units: The Sixers need one more win to secure their spot in 1st place in the Eastern Conference and after that embarrassing showing last night, this is as good a situation as any for Philadelphia to blow the doors off a team. It helps that they’re at home facing the Magic. Orlando has been getting outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game since the All-Star break and, not shockingly, they’re one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA, covering at a rate of only 47.1%. Now on a 5 game losing streak and playing with their C team, Orlando has been beaten by 23, 12, 32, 10, and 36 in their last 5 contests. With all the motivation they need and after that bad showing last night, I expect a huge Philadelphia win and cover Friday.

Pistons +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: I can’t say I feel great about this bet but there’s truly nothing for Denver to play for. I guess theoretically they could still pass the Clippers for 3rd place in the West, but LAC has an easy finish– Houston tonight and then OKC on Sunday. The Clippers won’t lose if they need to win and that means in all likelihood the Nuggets will sit comfortably in their 4th placed position to finish the year. Jokic was questionable all day yesterday and, right before tip-off, was announced as a starter and proceeded to dominate the Timberwolves. Appreciate that Jokic because it demolished a great parlay opportunity for yours truly. Regardless, I don’t think he’ll get as many minutes tonight– this line would be bigger if that were true– and the Pistons, for all their disappointments this season, are in the top half of ATS teams in the association. Feels like a cover game for the underdog.

We went 4-1 yesterday in MLB, putting us back in the groove and well over .500 on the year. It’s a happy Friday here at the Farley household– let’s get to the picks!

Giants -1.5 (+110), 1.5 units: All the value here lies on the Giants. Kevin Gausman (1.97 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 45.2 innings) has been lethal at the mound for San Francisco, flexing a 95 mph fastball, leaving most of his hitters on base (87.2%) and doing a great job at holding off hard contact (0.79 HR/9 innings). The Pirates have been really struggling to make any type of contact, scoring only 2 runs the past 2 contests. We rode that angle yesterday to a win. Today a SF win by margin feels even more possible as the Pirates send out Miguel Yajure to the dirt for his second start of the season. The 23 year old from Venezuela struggled in his first showing, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs over just 4.1 innings against a bad offense at Detroit. The Giants won 3 straight and 4 out of their last 5 games and I don’t think they’ll be very tested this afternoon either. Go San Fran!

Angels/Red Sox under 9.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Angels and Red Sox clash for game 1 in their first series of the year Friday night and I think this will be more of a pitcher’s duel than a typical LAA/Boston slugfest. Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 26 innings) gets the nod for LAA tonight and although he hasn’t been his best at times this young season, lately he’s found more command. He only allowed 1 run in each of his last 2 starts, one of those against the Dodgers, delivering 13 strikeouts and earning 2 wins. After starting the year allowing way too many homers, he’s also significantly improved in reducing hard contact. Boston’s Nick Pivetta (3.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 36.2 innings) takes the mound as Canning’s opposition Friday. Pivetta allows runners on base but he rarely invites the big whacks, holding opponents to only 0.49 HR/9 innings. The Angels and Sox are two of the best offenses in MLB, which is why the totals are always so high, but this feels more like an old fashioned game of chess at Fenway. Two solid pitchers will battle it out as both lineups eke out runs throughout the game. The value is on the under for me.

Orioles first 5 (+140), 1 unit and first 5 total under 5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two separate bets for me, but feel free to parlay. This is another play with built-in value. It’ll be a perfect day at Camden Yards (73 and sunny, low humidity), as the Yankees visit for the second time this season. New York owns the slight lead in the series so far (4-3), but Baltimore will look to resurrect some good pitching and more confidence behind their bats after two straight losses against the Mets. Baltimore’s starter Dean Kremer (6.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP over 26 innings) won’t blow your mind with any of his numbers, but lately he’s showed some positive regression. Last time Kremer faced the Yankees he had his worst outing of the year, allowing 10 hits and 6 runs in just 4.1 innings. Since then his numbers have improved and he should have some extra motivation for today’s rematch after that bad performance in late April. Corey Kluber (3.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 35.1 innings) looks to be finally rounding into form, looking stronger and more comfortable as the season wanes on. Coming back from the types of injuries Kluber suffered in his arm isn’t easy, but the 35 year old has only permitted 5 runs over last 4 games and his strikeout numbers are on the rise. In his last start against Baltimore he allowed plenty of contact (6 hits) but held the Orioles on base, resulting in only 1 lone run for the O’s. The Yankees are streaky this year and after a loss to Tampa Bay last night, maybe this is the start of another slump. The Orioles know the Yankees well and they’re not intimidated. This game should be close– I’ll take the O’s and the under in the first half of play.

Reds (-110), 2 units: The bats were white hot last night at Coors field, resulting in 21 runs and a near Cincinnati comeback (the Rockies were up 10-0 late into the game and the Reds made it 10-8 in the 8th, Colorado sealed it later, winning 13-8). After that fine showing from Colorado’s offense, we’re getting Wade Miley (2.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP over 36 innings) at a reduced price against the shaky German Marquez (5.49 ERA, 1.65 WHIP over 39.1 innings). I like Marquez but every time I try and depend on him, especially if it’s at home, it seems he has one of those head-scratching games. The Rockies want Marquez as their ace and he puts out some electric performances here and there, but he’s not steady enough for me and the Reds are too good to let another opportunity pass them at Coors Field. I think Cincinnati lights it up today.

The white hot streak of 75-80% winning days came to an end last night after I went 0-2 in NBA picks. The Celtics? Wow. That was truly pathetic. And for the first time in a long time a Wizards total didn’t hit the over. Lightning rarely strikes twice in the same spot and we expect some good ol’ fashioned positive regression tonight. Onto my Friday-Eve picks!

Pacers +9 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky line and it’s sneaky for a reason. The Pacers are quietly playing better these days, winning 3 of their last 4 games against some damn good opponents (Philly and Atlanta stand out). With just a few games left in the regular season, Indiana has an outside shot to still earn the 8th seed in the play-in tournament, which would mean the Pacers get a shot at only playing one game to earn their spot (the 9th and 10th seeds must play 2 games, no matter what, to get into the playoffs). During this last week of action, we’ve seen better effort on defense and exceptional play from Domantas Sabonis and Chris LaVert; i.e., the Pacers won’t be an easy out for Milwaukee tonight. The Nets will finish their season against the Bulls and Cavaliers while Milwaukee is still 1.5 games back from Brooklyn in the East. That all but secures the #2 slot for Brooklyn, so reality is likely settling in that the Bucks will enter the postseason in 3rd and thus will face a much tougher road to get to the finals. Playing away from home and with less to compete for, I like the Pacers to keep this game close. Sprinkle some money-line action? I just might.

76ers +2.5 (-110), 2 units if Embiid plays: This probably won’t be a popular pick but this is based on the likelihood that Jimmy Butler will not play tonight. I also need big man Joel Embiid to be in the lineup. Even if he isn’t I think the 76ers could win this game. The Heat are as tough as it gets and they’ve played really well lately. Miami has won 6 of their last 7 games thanks to their consistent defensive play and veteran leadership from Butler and Adebayo. The reality is, despite the fact that many of us felt the Heat making the finals last year was an aberration, it’s clear now that it wasn’t. Miami has all the tools you need to win a championship: great defense, superb leadership, lethal shooters, and they’re well-coached and committed to team basketball. No one ego is too large. While I love the Heat, I think this is a spot for Philadelphia to flex a little. Joel Embiid sat out 2 nights ago against Indiana, a game they lost, and the 76ers only need one more win to earn the #1 seed in the playoffs. While they could rest and earn that win in one of their final matchups against Orlando, why not do it early and rest your star players for those 2 meaningless games? I can see that being their philosophy tonight, especially since a win against Miami would just mean more. Jimmy Butler got poked in the eye and sat out in the 2nd half against Boston, with concerns over a possible concussion starting to circulate. That sounds to me like he’s not playing. The 76ers could and should take advantage– I’m on Philly for the cover and I’ll probably put a unit on them to win straight up, too.

Spurs +5.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Spurs/Knicks under 216.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. The Spurs need this win much more than New York. The Knicks clinched a playoff berth last night without playing, I’m sure they didn’t hate that, and now they get to chill at home to finish off the season knowing they’ll be in the postseason for the first time since 2013. Time to celebrate, no? Probably not. New York wants to keep winning because they still have a shot at eclipsing Atlanta or Miami for the 4th and 5th seeds. The 6th seed kinda sucks– they’ll have to face an angry Bucks team with home court advantage. Although I doubt that intimidates the Knicks, that’s still more imposing than getting the Hawks or Heat. Be that as it may, I still think the Spurs can cover here. San Antonio is still the best road ATS team (64.7%) in the NBA and they have two games against the 2nd place Suns to finish their season. The Kings have 2 games against the Grizzlies and one game against the Jazz to cap off their season, also not an easy stretch, so one win should secure the 10th place spot for San Antonio. Win or lose, I think the Spurs give this an all-out effort tonight. It helps that the Knicks have announced a bunch of key players, including Derrick Rose, as questionable Thursday. I’ll ride the Spurs and I’ll put a small play on the under here, too. With a playoff feel and the kind of defense these two teams can play, I don’t expect many easy shots tonight.

T-Wolves +2.5 (-115), 2 units: The Nuggets really don’t need this game and they’re on the road. While I don’t think they’ll mail it in early, Jokic has been getting extended time on the bench and they certainly don’t seem to care about covering games. I’ve said it on TheOddsBreakers podcast and in previous articles– despite their disappointing season overall, Minnesota is having fun and playing good basketball right now. They’re a threat to any team they face. Their young talent is healthy and gelling and they’re at home; what a better way to end the season than to compete with one of the best teams in their conference. I like the Timberwolves side tonight and I like it enough to lay down 2 units.

Bulls -10.5 (-110), 2 units: I hate a Bulls team favored this much but it makes sense. Chicago is at home, they need to win out to make the playoffs, and the Raptors are sitting everyone that matters (VanFleet, Lowry, Siakam, Anunoby, etc.). Besides their game against the motivated Nets, Chicago has played really well recently, especially with LaVine back in the lineup. They should blowout the Raptors C team tonight.