A nice 3-1 Saturday puts us in a great position to end the week. This will be a lighter card today — there are more pitchers and matchups I’d rather observe than put my hard-earned money on just yet– but as always we can find some value. Here are my picks:
Cubs/Pirates first 5 under 4.5 (-115), 2 units: When a pitcher goes up against his former team, I usually think that favors the guy on the mound. Though not always the case, I think Trevor Williams will thrive today against his old ballclub. Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh is among the worst teams in MLB in batting average thus far at 0.212. Williams shouldn’t have any issue commanding the first half of this game. JT Brubaker gets the nod for the Pirates and he looked good in his first outing, too. Earning a 2.25 ERA and allowing only 1 run in four innings in his first callup against the Reds, Brubaker should look elite again against a Chicago Cubs squad that’s dead last in batting average and has only scored 8 runs in their last 4 games. They might be due some positive regression, but it won’t come in the first 5 innings. Take the early under.
Yankees -1.5 (EVEN), 1 unit: This is a good spot for the Yankees. I know New York fans are already panicking and I don’t blame them, but their bats won’t stay this cold and Jordan Montgomery has more than enough to put away a Rays team that’ll be experimenting on the mound today. Brent Honeywell Jr. gets the promotion and debut start today for Tampa, although they’ll be rotating in Michael Wacha and other relievers as the game progresses. Wacha got his ass handed to him in his debut last Tuesday, giving up 5 runs over five innings of play in a loss. Honeywell Jr. is a great comeback story. Battling through injuries since the onset of his minor league career, he was one of the hottest young prospects in the country before various arm injuries halted his potential. We don’t know what we’ll see from him today and I’ll be quietly cheering for the kid, but the Yankees should be plenty motivated to bring the heat today after yesterday’s embarrassing 5 hit, 0 points showing. Not a great situation for Honeywell Jr. Jordon Montgomery dominated the Orioles in his first start, commanding six scoreless innings. This is what the Yankees do– look extremely bad in spurts, only to flex and go on long winning streaks once they figure a few things out. With a rematch series around the corner against the struggling Blue Jays, this could be the start of that streak.
Rockies win (+105), 1 unit: I’m going to take another shot on the Rockies– God help me. I’m a little concerned about German Marquez’s BAPIB rate thus far, but I trust him to get the job done against DeSclafani and the Giants. The Giants’ two wins against Colorado are more about the Rockies’ failures. San Francisco is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (under a 0.200 batting average so far in 2021) and they’re still winning games. Give the Giants credit for some great coaching and commanding pitching to this point, but I think the Rockies get back to blasting some balls today. DeSclafani is not as good as he performed in his first contest (1.80 ERA, allowed 1 run in four innings) and I think he gets a little exposed this afternoon. If the Rockies score 4+ runs today, they win this game. I’ll bet on that.
You know what’s really fun? Like kick-you-in-the-crotch, spit-on-your-neck just pure jubilation? When one of the better shooting players in the NBA (Steph Curry) can’t shoot and a good shooting team (the Warriors) can’t score against the worst defense in the NBA (the Wizards). So. Fun. I’m not mad, you’re mad. There’s not a ton of opportunity today, unfortunately, but we’ll find some value. Onto the PICKS!
Lakers +6.5 (1st half only, -110), 1 unit and Lakers +11 (full game), 1 unit: Where’s the value on betting the Nets here? There is none. At this point they’re a -700 favorite, absurd, and I’m not sure why they would be particularly motivated for this game. No Lebron, no Anthony Davis; what is there for the Nets to prove? Still, reports from LAL’s camp say that the Lakers are in good spirits and expect to win. Andre Drummond is getting worked into the lineup and no doubt he’ll only improve with more time. He should battle well with LeMarcus Aldridge. Caruso and Gasol are probable, that’s good news for LAL, and it’s not like Brooklyn is firing on all cylinders. This is only Durant’s second game back, Harden is out, and so is Dinwiddie, Johnson, and Shamet. Even without their stars, the Lakers have managed to maintain a number 1 defense according to Hollinger’s metrics. I like a proud and motivated underdog here, against a line that’s just way too inflated.
76ers -10 (-110), 1.5 units: That was beyond a let-down game for Philadelphia against the Pelicans last night, and the Thunder have been getting their ass kicked, even by bad teams. With or without Embiid, this should be a blowout. I can’t find any rhyme or reason to think otherwise. Watch the Thunder play the game of a lifetime (eye roll).
Pistons/Blazers over 226.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Unless they’re facing the Knicks, the Pistons have been scoring some points lately. Discounting the contest against New York, Detroit has averaged over 117 points in their last 6 games. After bad offensive performances against the Clippers and Jazz, the Blazers scorers are considerably overdue for some positive regression. Expect a show-out performance from Damian and the Blazers here. Another player prop on Lillard’s points (26.5) going over wouldn’t be a bad look either.
This fight should be a good one and it is certainly worth a main event in this venue. Marvin Vettori has been red hot in the UFC ripping off four wins in a row and finishing that feat with beating Jack Hermansson by decision. Vettori is a well rounded fighter at 16-4 with 2 KOs, 9 Submissions and 5 decisions. He has good ground game and it helps keep him in fights. His most impressive fight was probably his split decision loss vs Israel Adesanye. Kevin Holland on the other hand has 12 KOs, 4 submissions and 5 decisions. He was looked at as a top contender until he lost in decision to Derek Brunson on March 20th 2021 who has been fantastic as of late. Holland is one of the most accurate strikers in the game and he also knows how to escape a good ground game that Marvin will be tryin to capitalize on during this fight. Looking at how these fighters match up, Marvin has the better ground game but Kevin is the more accurate puncher. Kevin also has a massive 6 inch reach over Marvin which is another reason why this fight will end up on the floor. I think that there is a chance that Marvin could get caught with a knee or an uppercut trying to get Kevin down to the ground. Vettori is a deserving favorite but not nearly by this much. I think if Holland won his fight vs Brunson, this price would be more closer to even. Let’s take a shot here with the dog and see if it gets us anywhere.
Kevin Holland +290 1 star
Arnold Allen vs Sodiq Yusuff -140
This should be a very interesting fight leading up to the Main event. Both of these fighters have only 1 loss a piece in their careers and both will be sharing the same amount of ring rust being that neither of them has fought in about 15 months. I think there is an obvious play here and the distance is this fight is the tell. Both of these fighters are projected to go the distance at -175 to -200. This tells me that there should not be any knockouts which gives the advantage to the fighter with the best ground game. Arnold Allen has 5 KOs, 7 Submissions and 4 decisions while Sodiq has 6 KOs, 0 submissions and 5 decisions. Allen has 1.36 takedown average per 15 minuites while Sodiq has 0. Allen has never been knocked out and I think if this fight goes the distance, It is hard for me to see him not winning with points.
Marlins/Mets first 5 under 3.5 (-120), 1.5 units: The Mets bats haven’t exactly lived up to their hype just yet. Of course they’ve had less of a season than other teams, but currently they’re hitting at a .246 average. Pedestrian, at best. Miami’s bats have looked even worse– hitting at only a .210 average. They’ve also only scored 5 total runs in their last 4 games– it doesn’t get much worse than that. Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Marlins, while the Mets roll out deGrom for his second start of the season. A play on deGrom to control a Marlins’ team in the first 5 is an obvious handicap and one that’s tough to dispute. It often seems deGrom solely holds up his team, only to be constantly let-down by inferior relief play and an inconsistent lineup. The Mets really need to figure that out so the former Cy Young winner can feel what it’s like to play for a team that’s a major playoff contender. He deserves it. Trevor Rogers didn’t have a great outing in his first start, but it was serviceable. He took a loss, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and 4 walks over four innings. On the flip side, we saw some of the potential and power that Rogers can bring. The 23 year old showed off 95.6 mph four-seam fastball velocity and struck out 6 Cardinals hitters. He also maintained a respectable 3.16 FIP. Rogers certainly has upside and the Mets don’t scare me when the hold the wooden stick. They know deGrom will limit their offense–as if there’s any to speak of– and should roll out a cautious and intelligent arsenal behind Rogers to slow down New York. Give me the under in the first 5.
Brewers win first 5 innings (-110), 1.5 units: Adrian Houser (MIL) faces off against Carlos Martinez (STL) in this mid afternoon battle between the Brewers and Cards. I’m not deterred by Houser’s first outing. The Twins will get the best of a lot of good pitchers this year and it was no different for the 28 year old right-hander last Sunday. Houser gave up 2 runs on 4 hits over five innings, not bad, and it was a homerun that sent Houser off the mound. I’m actually pretty impressed by that performance, especially from what we’ve seen from the Minnesota offense as of late (the Twins own a .291 average in their last 3 games). This bet is more about the Milwaukee bats, though. The Brewers expect more out of their offense. Keston Hiura was expected to have a big season for the Brewers and so far he’s hitting at a dispicable .043 thru the first 5 games of the season. In a down 2020 year, the young power hitter still slammed 13 homers and 32 RBIs in 59 games. He’s part of an underperforming Brewers team averaging only 2.86 runs per game to this point. Positive regression is on the way. Luckily, St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez and his very hittable repertoire should be a great anecdote. The 29 year old had a pretty stellar career before 2020, where he displayed a startling 3 mph drop in four-seam velocity and posted a 9.90 ERA and 5.86 FIP over 5 games. His first game in 2021 didn’t show much improvement. Although his power somewhat returned (94.4 mph vFA), Martinez permitted 4 runs on 4 hits, including a homerun, and finished with a 7.20 ERA. The Reds lead MLB in batting average so far and they proved a worthy contender, but that’s still not a good sign for all the promise Martinez showed in the past. His command is shaky at best and this feels like a perfect opportunity for the Brewers’ bats to gain some steam. I’m on Milwaukee, at least in the first 5 innings, against a very hittable Martinez on the mound.
Rockies win (+155), 1 unit: This is a good opportunity for another struggling offense to get right. McMahon, Blackmon, Story, Dahl– the Rockies certainly have good hitters. Sending Nolan Arenado to St. Louis didn’t help any (and he’s already proving his worth there), but Colorado’s bats have more than enough firepower to get the job done. Unfortunately, those same names made the 35 year old Johnny Cueto look like an All-Star in their first outing against the Giants. Cueto dominated the Rockies, allowing only 1 run on 4 hits over 8.2 innings. He also struck out 7. San Francisco won’t enjoy the same command tonight. Logan Webb gets his second start for the Giants Saturday and if his first showing was any indication, Colorado can feel more confident about their chances in game 2. Webb made the Mariners, a team infamous for their lackluster offense, look like the 2020 Dodgers. Seattle hit 7 balls and scored 3 runs on Webb, including one homer and 2 deep whacks in just over five innings. In 2 games played, Colorado’s Chi Chi Gonzalez has looked really good. He’s allowed only 5 hits over 8 innings and owns a solid 3.36 FIP, but it was his outing against LAD that has onlookers intrigued. Chi Chi was already getting hype after an excellent spring training and he flexed in his first chance against an elite unit, permitting no runs over 3 innings against the reigning champs. The Giants’ current bats have historically hit only .274 against Chi Chi, while the Rockies have averaged .300 against Webb. This should be a good opening for Colorado’s power and if we get another good showing from Chi Chi, he should be able to hold off a questionable Rockies’ bullpen. I’m on the dog.
Red Sox/Orioles over 9.5 (-110), 2 units: Predictably, the Orioles bats have fallen off quite a bit. Scoring only 9 runs in their last 4 games and a batting average down to .219, Baltimore better find their groove quick if they want to keep pace. They certainly can’t count on their pitching. Last time these two throwers faced off, the Orioles clobbered Garrett Richards, scoring 6 runs in just two innings. Zimmerman did an okay job, permitting 3 runs over six innings and, at that point in the game, really just needed to hold off Boston’s cold bats. He earned a 0.83 WHIP for that performance. Boston’s bats aren’t all that frigid anymore. Since getting swept by the Orioles in their first 3 games, the Red Sox have secured 4 victories in a row and they’re averaging 8.25 runs per game in that span, boosting their batting average to 5th overall in MLB. The wind is down to 5 mph in Baltimore today and the humidity is high. The Orioles bats need a boost and they get a great pitching setup to get it done. The Red Sox bats are white hot. So, if my calculations are correct… 1+1+1=3… and that equals an over bet for this guy. High 5.
This game is pretty simple to me. Oakland has had a terrible start to this season and they really do not have any stars that can bring them out of this funk. Today they have Frankie Montas at the helm who last year had a pretty bad FIP of 4.74 with a horrible first start allowing 7 runs in 2 innings vs the Dodgers. Houston’s bullpen this year so far has been decent and they have Jose Urquidy pitching today who also had a bad FIP last year of 4.71 but had a great start this year already pitching at Oakland allowing only 2 earned runs. The hitting between these to teams isn’t even close with Houston ranking 3rd in OPS at .852 while Oakland is second to last at .558. This price is too short for what Oakland actually is this year.
Houston -144 – 2 stars
Kansas City vs Chicago White Sox -132
The Royals are an improved team so far but it is early and I think that the fade train might have to show up here. KC has Mike Minor pitching to day who recorded a 4.64 FIP in 2020. He is a lefty who is a veteran in this league. The White Sox do not have a great pitcher themselves coming up in Dylan Cease who should have ceased at pitching last year recording a 6.36 FIP. The White Sox at least are a good hitting team ranking 5th in WRC+ (which is runs created adjusted for ball barks) to the Royals 9th so far this year and last year the White Sox ranked 6th in WRC+ while the Royals ranked 21st. This doesn’t seem like a massive difference to me to justify laying -132. So why do I like the White Sox here? 2 reasons actually. The White Sox haven’t had to use their bullpen since Wednesday and they are the BEST team hitting against lefties who was first last year against lefties in WRC+ at 142%. I think this trend continues and we should play the Sox today.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets 1:10pm est PICK: (METS -270)
Miami is off to a slow start after only being able to win one game this year. The Marlins are sloping downhill, and are currently on a four game losing streak, and their most recent loss is coming off the controversial pitch in the bottom half of the 9th inning to cost them the game. Michael Conforto extended his elbow to get hit by a pitch with the bases loaded, that brought in the winning run. Don Mattingly did his best to combat this decision, but at the end of the day, the review was inconclusive, and the Mets won. With Jacob DeGrom on the mound at home, all signs are pointing towards another loss for Miami. He has been the Mets ace for years now, and a Marlins team that is averaging a .210 average at the plate will struggle to get runners on. DeGrom and the Mets should have a field day with Miami early Saturday morning.
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins 2:10pm est PICK: (TWINS -180)
The Minnesota Twins have shown the league early that they can put up runs this year. They have had an average of 4.6 runs a game, but have shown flashes of 8 plus runs, three times this year. With Andrelton Simmons and Byron Buxton starting the season on a tear, it is making it even harder for pitchers to work around Nelson Cruz. Opposing pitchers have to come at the Twins hitters and as right now, for the other teams, it is looking like a pick your poison on who you want to pitch to. The Mariners could have stole some wins in the opening week, but were derailed by their own bullpen. The Mariners hold an average team ERA of 5.71, and their bats are not producing enough runs to keep up with that, as their record shows. The hot hitting Twins should get to an old Kikuchi early.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates 6:35pm est PICK: (CUBS -157)
The Cubs cannot hit the ball right now. Besides their top tier 10 homers in 7 games, they are still batting a .157. It is hard to watch as the Cubs do posses the right players in that lineup to produce a ton of runs. The simplest answer is they are just struggling right now. The tides will be turning in Pittsburgh. What better way to wake up the bats, then beating up an a lowly division rival? The Pirates are on a 6 game losing streak, and they have failed to do anything right. Pittsburgh is made up of bad pitching and even worse hitting. The Cubs will begin the steps in the right direction on Saturday, and will even sweep this weekend series.
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles 7:05pm est PICK: (RED SOX -130)
The Red Sox have flipped the script, after being swept in the 2021 home opener against Baltimore. They are winners of their last four games, and really have been swinging the hot bat. Manager Alex Cora was able to create some motivation in the clubhouse after getting beat up by the Orioles squad. Yes the downfall to this Saturday matchup is Garrett Richards is pitching. The Orioles absolutely lit him up in his 2021 season debut. But here is the caveat to that. Things are different now. Boston is playing with a chip on their shoulder, and Richards is going to be seeking that sweet sweet revenge. And the O’s have not been good. The lineup as a whole has struck out 13 times each in their last 4 games. Richards should get a quality start for his team on Saturday.
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers 7:05pm est PICK: (PADRES -172)
We have to stay with San Diego, and riding this momentum that they have built. No team has been able to go out and beat up this Padres team yet, and until a team does we need to stick with them. Joe Musgrove was able to throw the teams first no hitter in Padres history. Right now the San Diego Padres are playing with swagger and a lot of confidence, and we absolutely cannot hop of this train, especially against a team as bad as Texas. The Rangers are going to continue their struggles until they can figure out their pitching issues. They give up too many runs, and with San Diego starters and bullpen pitching lights out, the Rangers will be playing a lot of catchup. Young arm Chris Paddack still has a lot to prove for his team, and it should be another easy win for San Diego.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants 4:35pm est
Austin Gomber takes the mound today for the 3-4 Rockies. The Rockies have won two of their last three, and are coming off of a series win against Arizona. As a team right now, Colorado is batting .286 with 12 home runs in 7 games played. Their pitching has struggled in the beginning, but found their way recently in the last four games. San Fransisco is coming off a day off, after taking the series against the Padres in San Diego. Evan Longoria has been the go to bat in the begining of the season, as he is batting .318 and is leading the team in homers. Veteran Johnny Cueto is set to pitch for the Giants.
PREDICTION: Age is really coming around to Cueto. In his last outing his gave up 3 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. It took him 105 pitches to get there. This Rockies team has some hitters, and with Cueto losing control, and not being dominant, they should be able to produce runs at ease. (Colorado Rockies +140)
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians 7:10pm est
The Tigers come into the ball game only scoring 2 runs against the Twins on April 7th. Detroit showed some flashes of offense to begin the season against the Indians, but overall are struggling. This is the same case for the Indians. In five games the Indians have only been able to score a total of 17 runs. Of the two wins the Indians got, the pitching was their dark knight. They hold a team ERA of 3.35, and have struck out 52 batters in 45 innings. Teheran and Plesac are the listed starters for tonight.
PREDICTION: This game is going to come down to who can score 3 runs first. The under 9.5 run could be a nice play here, but with Teheran’s ability to give up the long ball, we want to ride the Indians. (Cleveland Indians -190)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves 7:20pm est
Zack Wheeler is looking to build off his last outing against the Braves, where he went 7 innings, striking out 10, and not allowing any runs. The Phillies are off to a hot start, as they are 5-1, and have looked near perfect on both sides of the ball. The Braves on the other hand, are starting to wish the season did not start for another month. They are 2-4, and are failing miserably to score any runs. They are batting a combined .170, and are only getting runners on base 23% of the time. Charlie Morton is slated to pitch again against the Phillies.
PREDICTION: The Phillies have to cool down eventually, and the Braves offensive has to heat up right? That is right. This Atlanta team was projected to win 91.5 games this year. They are just out to a rough start, and will be seeking revenge after being shutout by Wheeler last time. (Atlanta Braves -128)
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers 8:05pm est
The 4-3 Padres are coming off a bye after slipping in the series against San Fransisco at home. They were competitive in every game this year, as all three losses were determined by two runs or less. The pitching has been outstanding, as they hold a team ERA of 1.97. Their offense is struggling to get those runners in, as the Padres are ranked 5th in total runners left on base. Texas is carried by their offense. Their pitching is at a whopping 6.06 team ERA. Kohei Arihara is on the mound again after going 5 innings, and giving up 3 runs, one of those runs coming off a solo shot from Michael Taylor against the Royals.
PREDICTION: Joe Musgrove has all the pieces to be an elite pitcher in the league. His last outing he went 6 innings, striking out 8, and not allowing any runs. The Padres just need to get the runners that they typically strand on the bases in. With Texas having their struggles at the mound, the Padres should be able to score at ease. (San Diego Padres -185)
Even after a few bad beats yesterday (are you kidding me, Diamondbacks?), we’re still 15-11 (58%) and shit, it’s Friday. Let’s go!
Blue Jays win (EVEN), 1 unit: The Angels are playing some good baseball right now. They have underrated pitching, a deep roster and plenty of big bats to keep pace if and when the scoreboard blows up. They’re also the only team that’s bested the Astros to this point, which I think means more than pundits think. Toronto, on the other hand, could use a win. The Blue Jays have now lost 3 straight, 2 of those losses to the hapless Rangers, and they’re having real trouble scoring. T.J Zeuch takes the mound for the Blue Jays today and his first start was a good one, allowing only 4 hits and 1 walk in four scoreless innings of pitching. And that was against a Yankees squad in a good spot. Zeuch is a good back-up and filler while the Jays nurse Robbie Ray back into the lineup. If his velocity and command continue to look like his first showing, he may be a bigger part of the Jays’ rotation in the months to come. The up-and-down Andrew Heaney gets the nod Friday for the halos and his first showing was anything but promising. Of course we all know how well the White Sox do against lefties, but this performance was particularly alarming. Heaney didn’t look ready, allowing 7 runs on 5 hits in just over three innings of play. Yowza. That’ll count as a loss and after a promising 2020, the red flags will start waving if that’s the Heaney we get this year– he looked like the 2016/2017 version, which wasn’t good. Heaney takes chances and Toronto has more than enough power behind their bats to knock a few deep and get some momentum going today at “home” in Florida. I like this spot for the Jays.
Padres (-180), 2.5 units: Joe Musgrove was dominant in his first start for his new squad, posting an electric 0.56 FIP, allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs over six innings and earning 8 strikeouts. The only issue– how impressive was it against a Diamondbacks unit that, we’re learning, is really struggling to produce offense? I guess we’ll see. Texas will bring out Kohei Arihara for his second start in the major leagues. The 28 year old Japanese signing had a fair start to his MLB career, allowing 3 runs over five innings. He’ll be a work in progress as he adapts to the power and pace of American baseball, but based on his performance in the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), he should improve. Arihara has improved his velocity and “had one of the 10-lowest walk rates among qualified starters in NPB four of the last five years,” according to FanGraphs. The bigger issue for the Rangers is their bullpen. Texas has already gotten into real trouble when too dependent on their relief pitchers and if Musgrove unleashes another above-average performance, it’s likely the Rangers will have to play catch-up and may try to throw off the Padres’ bats with new blood at the mound. No matter how this game progresses, I don’t think it spells good news for the home team. I’ll take the Padres on the road.
Astros -1.5 (+105), 2 units: For all the success Sean Manaea has had in recent past, his 2021 season started out rather abysmal. The 6’5″ 29 year old was blitzed by a motivated Astros offense last Sunday, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits in just 4.2 innings, including 2 homers. I don’t see why the same doesn’t happen Friday night. The Astros are feelin’ themselves. Confident on the mound and at bat, the Astros swept the Athletics on Oakland’s home turf in 4 straight games and look to do it again at Minute Maid Park. Lance McCullers gets the start again for Houston and he was very efficient in his first showing last week against Oakland. McCullers is known for a strong arm and he flexed it last Saturday, allowing only one run in 5 innings and accruing a 1.80 ERA and 2.22 FIP. Left on base percentage– 80%. That’s a really good recipe for the Astros again tonight. Even if McCullers allows the Athletics to get on base, and there’s no evidence that Oakland has any momentum to get there, I don’t think they can keep pace while the very hittable Manaea faces off against a bunch of white-hot Astros’ batters. Trust the Astros right now, this heat may eventually wear off. Astros by margin.
Well this party really died. I got a little too cute last night with my picks, choosing to side with totals instead of the sides I knew would hit. I hit a few good parlays tailing the Mavericks and Clippers and should have just stuck to those angles here. Ah well. Our win clip means we’re due for some good redemption Friday, let’s get it.
Knicks +1.5 (-110), 1.5 units and total under 214.5, 1 unit: Two separate bets, not a parlay. This is an intriguing game between two clubs heading in opposite directions. The Knicks, although they cover frequently as a dog, can’t find a way to scrap a good win. Losers of now 5 of their last 6 contests, and not exactly against world-beaters, the Knicks have been plagued by injuries to RJ Barrett and Derrick Rose. Certainly that’s partially why they’re losing. The other part is their inability to ever pull ahead on offense. Tom Thibodeau has always been a conservative coach. He doesn’t pay much attention to rhythm, he isn’t the best schemer, and he just seems like the type of old-school guy that won’t adapt or listen to new ideas. Teams usually start to take on the personalities of their leader and that reality seems to be rearing its ugly head the last few weeks. Maybe it’s time to mix it up, eh Knickerbockers? In the last 6 games, the Knicks have only averaged 101.8 ppg. Although they’re still playing exceptional defense, rated #1 overall and only allowing 42.3% from the field in their last 5 games, they’re near the bottom in points per game and offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team ratings. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, may be playing their best basketball all year. Looking like the complete opposite of New York, Memphis has won 5 of their last 6 games and they’re improving on both offense and defense, ranked 7th in overall defense and 16th in overall offense. And they’ve been improving against really good teams, on the road.
All that said, I think this is the spot to bet on New York. They’re at home, rested, and they’re facing the kind of opponent they can beat. Memphis does a lot of things well but they’re not overwhelming. Julius Randle and Jonas Valanciunas should be a fun battle in the front court, while Ja Morant and RJ Barrett will go head to head at the guard position. It’ll be a tough-guy contest all night and that’s why I love the under– both teams are built around their defenses– but that’s also the type of game the Knicks love to win. For all the success the Grizzlies have had, the Knicks just need it more and they’re finally set up right to take advantage. This line is sneakily telling you it’s the right side. Bet the home dog.
Celtics -8.5 (-110), 2 units: It’s hard to imagine that Boston is in the thick of the playoff race. Every time you turn on the TV and see them playing on TNT or ESPN, they’re losing. Those marquee games against Philly and Brooklyn and other great teams often find the Celtics a day late and a dollar short, and it’s evident why. I’m not sure what’s going on with Brad Stevens’ leadership but his patient, even-keel style may be phasing out. The Celtics aren’t deep but they’re starting 5 is talented– even the average fan can see that. The issue is, and it’s clear when watching their games, the Celtics’ stars seem to just run around and find an open shot. There’s no true rhyme or reason to it; it’s just unorganized street ball. And there’s no clear leader, either. That won’t work against the well-coached elites of the association and it’s proven as much thus far. Luckily, talent overrides bad competition and that’s what they’re facing Friday. The Timberwolves are one of the worst defenses in the NBA and only Cleveland and OKC out-suck Minnesota when it comes to point differential. Although talented on offense, the Celtics have more than enough prowess and gumption to stifle the 26th ranked offense (Hollinger metrics) in the NBA. On the other side of the court, Boston’s stars should thrive and be able to take advantage of a team where all hope and most of their motivations, especially on defense, are lost. The Celtics are at home off 2 days of rest before they have to travel to Denver Sunday (get ready to fade them again in that one). They can’t afford to drop a game like this. Expect them to win with ease.
Lean, Pacers -4.5 (-110): This is a wait and see who’s sitting out situation, but if most of the Pacers’ key players are in, hammer this line. The Magic are done.
76ers -6 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll keep this short because there’s really not much to it. The Pelicans could be getting healthier, watch out for pre-game updates before this game, and they are back at home, but a fully-stocked Philadelphia squad is no team to bet against right now. With Embiid back in the lineup and looking real fresh against the Celtics in their last outing, I want nothing to do with the Pelicans’ side Friday night. New Orleans’ defense has been absolutely porous. Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid and Curry and Simmons and all the weapons Philly has on and off the bench should prove too overwhelming when it matters most. The Sixers have had their perils on the road, I get that, but the Pelicans aren’t great at home either, covering only 44% (12-15) of the time at the Smoothie King Center. Zion and New Orleans will be playing catch up once again; bet Philly.
Lean, Bucks -8.5 (-110): I might sprinkle some action on this. With or without Giannis, the Bucks are the exceedingly better team and they play well at home. They need to assert themselves in a big win here.
Wizards/Warriors over 238.5 (-110), 1.5 units* (only if Bradley Beal plays): This is a high total (thanks Captain obvious) but it started at 240.5 so I’ll take the reduced line in a heartbeat. Bradley Beal made a clear difference in his return for the Wizards 2 days ago against Orlando, dropping 26 points in 30 minutes. Russ thrived in their last contest too, scoring 23 points, dishing out a jaw-dropping 15 assists, and somehow gathering 14 rebounds for yet another tripe-double. Of course this was against the God-awful Magic in a spot they had no interest in, but it’s still worthy to note. Beal is an instant stimulant for the Washington offense, just like Steph Curry is an equivalent sparkplug for Golden State. The former world-champion scored 37 and 41 points in his first 2 games back with his club, earning a win over Milwaukee in the process. The Warriors defense, for all it’s gotten credit for in the past, seems to be regressing. In spurts they can play really well, but they now sit at 24th overall in points allowed per game and 10th in defensive efficiency, both declines from weeks past. The Wizards, well, they still allow the most points in the NBA and they sit uncomfortably at 26th in defensive efficiency. Where these two squads are really similar is pace. No two teams in the NBA play faster than the Wizards and Warriors, rated #1 and #2 in tempo respectively according to Hollinger’s team ratings. As long as Bradley Beal plays, and he should, I love this game to soar over the total. With teams full of star shooters racing down the court every chance they get, I think it’s inevitable. Look at first quarter and first half lines, too, and hammer the live over if the lines drop because of a brief dip in field goal percentage. Sometime it ain’t rocket science, my friends.
We have a great show for you today! Sig @SIGlasvegas comes on to break down the Arkansas Derby. First, Kiev discusses a little bit about baseball and the masters. We are currently 9-3 in OddsBreakers premium plays in the MLB. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL adding a 17th game. Next, Sig comes on to discuss some horse racing as well as The Arkansas Derby. Sig and Kiev discuss the Kentucky derby and the strength of the field. Is Essential Quality a “quality” favorite? What horse is in the Arkansas Derby that is already penciled into the run for the roses? Then, Sig gets into the Arkansas Derby and discusses who should win it, who we should toss off of our tickets, and how he plans on attacking this race. Finally, Kiev goes into some UFC on ABC 2 Vettori vs Holland. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
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