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College Football Week 6 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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West Virginia vs Texas -10 O/U 59.5

Lots of people have Texas in a look ahead spot to Oklahoma but do you know why it’s not?  Because the loss to LSU is still like a fresh wound and they want to show that they can be a championship contender.  As we already know, West Virginia has a new coach and new team that only returned 7 starters last year.  They haven’t played a ranked team yet they are currently at -.5 yards per play.   Texas has played 2 ranked teams including LSU and is a positive .66 yards per play.   I don’t love the Longhorn’s defense this year but it should be enough to stop a bad offense and the second worst team in the big 12 this year.

Texas – 10 – 2 star premium shared

Troy vs Missouri -26 O/U 67

What do these two teams have in common?   Speed baby speed!  Missouri is the fasted paced team at 87 plays per game while troy ranks 5th at 84.   What else do these teams have in common?   They score lots of points and get yards.  Troy averaged 40 points per game at 508 yards while Missouri averages 38 points per game and 447 yards per game.   Both teams are also pretty efficient on offense at 13 yards per point.   I do not think their defenses are that good.   Troy allows 30 points per game in a bad conference and Missouri’s 15 PPG numbers are skewed due to playing against injuries and some terrible teams.   I have this game going all the way to 83.

Over 67 – 3 star premium shared

Iowa vs Michigan -3.5 O/U 48 – I have this game to 43.  The last game was 14-13.   Iowa has the 3rd most efficient defense in the league allowing a crazy 29 yards per point .  I have to think that the Michigan D steps up this game at home against Iowa’s sometimes predictable offense.   Iowa’s D has only allowed 8.5 points per game and Michigan’s has allowed 19 due to the Wisconsin debacle.   When Michigan stepped up in class to Wisconsin, they scored 14 points and Iowa against Iowa State scored 18.   Both QBs Patterson and Stanley will take care of the ball in this important game.  Iowa’s schedule has been easy minus the Iowa State game.   I do have Iowa actually keeping it close and lean them +3.5 points.

Under 48 – 2 star premium shared

Quick hitter:  Cincinnati +4 or way better.   Remember the UCF vs Pitt game?   Well Cinci may be better than Pitt and they are in a good revenge spot here.   I have this game in my power ratings at Pickem in Cincinnati so this will be a small ML play as well.

 

Podcast 54 – 19 – College Football Week 6 Plays With Brian Edwards – NFL Week 5 Plays – Sharp Movement – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

41-34-4 in College up 14 units and 20-18-1 in the NFL up 6 units.  We have a fantastic show for you today!   First, Kiev goes through the NFL week 5 Card and gives out some plays.   Kiev also gives his negative thoughts about the Cardinals vs Bengals game.  Brian Edwards @vegasbedwards from magorwager.com comes on to break down College Football Week 6!  Both Kiev and Brian release their top 10 power ratings.  Next, we talk about some huge games and give out some plays.  Then, Kiev gives out a few of his own Free Plays.  Finally, we go over the sharp line movement in the #NFL and #NCAA.

Michigan State vs Ohio State – UCF vs Cincinatti – Iowa vs Michigan and more!

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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College Football Week 5 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots:  Not Many and lots of Byes

ASU upset Cal but they have a bye

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech i suppose but OK State was favored against a ranked team

Umass got their win and could let down at FIU whome is coming off of a bye

Baylor going to Kansas State – K State may be an auto-bet

Temple after beating their old coach could let down vs East Carolina

Get up Spot:

Cal at Oregon after losing to ASU

Virginia at Miami after losing to Notre Dame

Marshall needs to get it right against Middle Tennessee State after that drubbing hosting Cinci

Kansas State may get it right against Baylor after losing to the Pokes

Maryland better kick Rutgers in the teeth after embarrassing all the sports bettors.

Look Ahead Spots:

Wisconsin could be looking past Kent State to Michigan State.  MSU has a brutal next 3 games.

Oklahoma could be looking past Kansas to Texas

Texas could be looking past West Virginia to Oklahoma but they are coming off of a bye

Penn State could be looking past Purdue to Iowa

LSU could be looking past Utah State to Florida but they are coming off of a bye

Temple looking ahead to Memphis is a sandwich spot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Buffalo vs Miami OH – Buffalo out-gained Miami Ohio by 123 yards and lost by 14 because of 4-0 turnover ratio

Central Michigan vs Western Michigan – Central outgained Western by 7 yards but lost by 16.  a 3-1 turnover ratio.

Northwestern vs Wisconsin – Northwestern out-gained Wisconsin by 12  yards yet lost by 9 but Wisco had less possessions and was in prevent the whole time.   Future value is on Wisconsin most likely here.   Wisco lost an onside kick and both teams had a few turnovers.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas – Arkansas out-gained A&M by 55 yards, won the turnover battle and lost the game by 4.

Wake Forest vs Boston College – Wake Forest was out-gained by 93 yards yet won by 3 – 3-1 turnover ratio

Delaware vs Pitt – Pitt out-gained Delaware 443-170 yet only won by 3

Virginia vs Notre Dame – Virginia out-gained Notre Dame by 16 yards yet lost by 15. 4-1 turnover ration and 4 rushing yards for the Cavaliers

Stanford vs Oregon State – Oregon State out-gained Stanford by 148 yards yet lost by 3 points.

Houston vs North Texas – North Texas out-gained Houston by 93 yards with 0 turnovers and lost by 21 points

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Week 5

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bye Weeks: 

Miami, Detroit

Key Injuries:

Mitch Trubisky QB – will most likely miss this next week in London with a dislocated Shoulder and Torn Labrum.

Josh Allen QB – Concussion

Christian Kirk WR – Ankle

Davante Adams WR – Turf Toe

TJ Hockenson TE – Conscussion and shoulder

Marlon Mack – Ankle

Kenny Stills Wr – Hamstring

Jarvis Landry WR – Concussion

Waiver Wire:

AJ Brown WR – only owned in 10% yahoo leagues is a boom or bust guy (only 3 targets)

Chase Daniel QB – With Mitch out against a weak D

Matt Barkley QB – For Allen Injury

Nyheme Nines RB – For Mack injury

Jack Doyal TE – 8 Targets and a TD

Ricky Seals Jones TE – Njokue’s targets

Antonio Callaway WR – Depending on Landry Injury

Cole Beasley WR – 13 targets with Buffalo

Jeronimo Allison WR – Packers are a big injured with Adams out

Non-Starters Trending up:

Jeronimo Allison WR – Packers are a big injured with Adams out

Chase Daniel QB – He could be good this week vs a bad D

Nyheme Hines RB – vs KC’s Defense

Jordan Howard RB – vs the Jets is looking like a good one

Will Fuller WR – vs the banged up Falcons D

Jacoby Brissett QB vs the Chiefs bad D

Kyle Allen QB throwing to a Jalen Ramsey-less Jags team.   Christian McCaffery helps too

Andy Dalton QB – vs the Cardinals brutal D

Bust List:

Mohammad Sanu WR – had 12 targets but only averages about 6 ish

Derek Carr QB – Vs Bears

Todd Gurley RB – At Seattle isn’t promising and he hasn’t been effective.  Something is wrong there.

Adrian Peterson RB – vs the Patriots who will stack the box

Ronald Jones RB – vs the Saints great D line

Daniel Jones QB – vs Vikings D

Dnasty Sleeper of the Week! – Jeronimo Allison

 

 

 

Podcast 53 – 19 – College & NFL Football Recap – NCAA Betting Spots for Week 6 – Fantasy Football Week 5 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

10-10-2 in College Football and 5-5-1 in the NFL last week while 0-2 in teasers.  Our first losing week in football this year.  We first start by recapping NFL week 4 and College Football week 5!   Next, Kiev talks about some misleading final scores.  Then, Kiev gets into some let down, get up and look ahead spots for College Football week 6.   Finally,  we go over our Big 10 power ratings and Kiev gives out a FREE PICK for week 6!  D-Nasty comes in to discuss fantasy football week 5.   Key injuries and waiver pick-ups.   Players trending up and busts for week 5.

#AAC #ACC #Big12 #Big10 #CUSA #MAC #MWC #Pac12 #SEC #Sunbelt

#Sportsbetting #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NFL

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!  Terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 17.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for $19.99 per month get all of that while adding access to the podcast early by becoming our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/join/theoddsbreakers?

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: Spotify | Email | TuneIn | RSS | More

NFL Week 4 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Oakland vs Indianapolis -6.5

I have the Raiders as the second worst defense in the NFL behind the Miami Dolphins.   Now they lost Marquell Lee their starting middle linebacker to add to losing Jonathan Abram last week.   Indianapolis is a little banged up as well but I think that they still tower over what the Raiders have for talent, even with a few back-ups.  Handicappers and sportsbooks are still to low on the Colts thinking that the stop from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett is 6 points.   Well I think it is more like 3 or 4.   I have the colts by 8.75 in this spot.   The Raiders are in serious need of better skill positions on offense.   I also am going to make a bold statement here and say that I think even though it’s his second year, Jon Gruden has been out of the NFL too long and things have changed too much for him.   Frank Reich is the better coach here.

Indianapolis -6.5 – 2 star play

Tampa Bay vs LA Rams +10

The Rams are a good/great team as we can see here but this isn’t a great spot for them at all.  One thing we know about the Tampa D is that their weakness is against the pass as we saw against the Giants but is that what the Rams try to do?   The Rams like to play misdirection football and set up the play action through running the ball.  They ranked top  5 in rushing attempts in 2018.   Tampas run defense is great with Sue and Vita Vea leading that defensive line that currently ranks number 1 in stuff rate and 3 in adjusted line yards.   I see the Rams trying to get through this game quickly by running the ball and not running up the score because this is one of those look ahead spots to Thursday vs a huge division foe Seattle.   We know that Jamis Winston throws picks but I really like the QB whisperer Bruce Ahiens helping him through and if any team is built for a garbage touchdown to cover the spread it is guys like Winston to Evans or Goddard or even OJ Howard.  We also have to remember that the Rams do not have a great home field advantage.   This is LA BABY.    Due to the spot and the situation i really like Tampa bay here and a small ML play isn’t a bad idea either.

Tampa Bay +10 – 3 star premium play

Dallas vs New Orleans +2.5

My play here doesn’t completely agree with my power ratings, but I am going to bet against the over-reaction to last week here.   Dallas has had an easier schedule but they are also very healthy here.   Dallas is the second most explosive team in football right now on offense and they have the tools to wear down the Saints in my opinion.   The Saints showed that they have a vulnerable defense.  They rank 30th in yards per play and I know that they played a very hard schedule but what stuck out to me is that they beat Seattle last week while being out-gained by 250 yards.  This is very significant.  Dallas beat this Saints team with Breese in last year and I think they have their number.   The Teddy Bridgewater situation still hasn’t shown its true colors here and I like the number under 3.

Dallas -2.5 – 2 Star Premium Shared

Quick Hitter:  Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh over 43.5 – 2 star premium shared – You  have 2 desperate teams here and I do not either defense both ranking in the bottom 25% of all teams.  I think we will see some points here.

Teaser:   Vikings to +8 and Ravens to -1 – 2 star

 

College Wk 5 and NFL Wk 4 Free Play

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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College Football Week 5 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Sep 21, 2019; Champaign, IL, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Scott Frost looks on before a game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

UNLV vs Wyoming -9 O/U 48

I got this one at 51 but there is still some value here.   Wyoming has 0 passing game and they run the ball a ton.  They also have a great rushing defense allowing only 2.3 yards per carry which is one of the top 13.  UNLV can’t pass the ball either and have a terrible passing defense but they can run the ball at 5.9 yards per carry.  It’s too bad they are facing such a great rushing defense.   What I really like about this play is that even if these teams try and pass the ball the weather report is calling for moderate rain showers and double digit wind speeds.   I like the under here down to 45.

Under 51 – 3 star premium shared

Hawaii vs Nevada -2 O/U 64
Both these defenses are downright terrible and they haven’t even played anyone yet.  Nevada lost their quarterback Christian Solano that first game vs Purdue but Freshman Carson Strong showed improvement his last game.   Nevada is weak against the pass and that is where Hawaii excels.  Hawaii averages 80 plays per game and should set the pace of this showdown.  Hawaii’s defense is so bad that they rank 102nd in opponents yards per point at 12.1 while Nevada is even worse ranking 116th at 11th.  The average score of a Hawaii game is 66.3 points and that includes playing 3 pac 12 teams.   Take the over.
Over 64 – 2 star play premium shared
Ohio State vs Nebraska +17.5 O/U 67.5
I have Ohio State 4th highest in my Power ratings but I have them only beating Nebraska by 14.25 points on a neutral and forget the fact that they are playing a night game in Lincoln.   This is more of a 10 point spread to me.  Adrian Martinez was recruited by Ohio State and chose Nebraska.  He has this game circled and almost won it last year when the Buckeye’s let them back into the game.  We know that Justin Fields is the real deal at QB and we know that Chase Young might be the best edge rusher in the business at 7 sacks already, but we do not know how this team will perform on the road in a big spot like this.  I think it hurts the Freshman Justin Fields here.   You can’t count the Indiana game because lots of Buckeye fans show up there.  Lastly, Nebraska has a similar offense to the buckeyes in my opinion drawing misdirection and getting the ball out quickly to skilled players so their defense should be somewhat familiar.   I like Nebraska here and lean over.
Nebraska +17.5 – 2 star premium shared and sprinkle

College Football Week 5 and NFL Week 4 Sharp Action

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

College Sharp Sides:

ON:

UCF hosting UCONN at -43 – a 26% difference but some dual action as well

Temple hosting Georgia Tech at -9 a 20% difference

Iowa State at Baylor from -2 to -3 a 28% difference – This one worries me for my Baylor future

Toledo hosting BYU at +4.5 to +2.5 a 20% difference – value gone

Akron at Umass from -4.5 to -7.5 a 26% difference.  Has UMASS quit the season this early?

Michigan hosting Rutgers at -27.5 a 20% difference

Minnesota at Purdue at +1 to -1 a whopping 58% difference

Louisiana at Georgia Southern at -3.5 dual action with 98% of the money on Louisiana

Kentucky at South Carolina at +3 a 34% difference – I disagree

Kansas at TCU at +16 a 24% difference – Low total here

Dual action on Oklahoma hosting Texas Tech -24 to -27 with 89% of the money on Oklahoma

Charlotte hosting FAU at +1 a 26% difference

Virginia at Notre Dame at +12.5 a 22% difference

Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State +16 a 38% difference – Let down spot for APP St

Cincinatti at Marshall from -3 to -3.5 a 25% difference.  I disagree

Louisiana Monroe hosting South Alabama at -16 a 35% difference

Southern Miss hosting UTEP from -25 to -26.5 a 36% difference

Rice hosting Louisiana Tech from +11 to +9 a 21% difference

Sharp College Totals:

San Jose State at Air Force under 56.5 a 47% difference – option team

Northwestern vs Wisconsin Dual action over 44 to 46.5 99% of the money on the over

Buffalo vs Miami Ohio under from 53 to 47 a 35% difference

NC State vs Florida State over 61 a whopping 52% difference there

Hawaii vs Nevada over 65 a 41% difference

Stanford vs Oregon State under 58 a 32% difference

Clemson vs North Carolina under 60 a 56% difference

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State under from 63.5 to 60 a 30% difference

Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State under 60 a whopping 71% difference

Colorado State vs Utah State over 72 a 40% difference

Sharp NFL Sides:

On:

Oakland at Indianapolis at +7 a 52% difference – I disagree here

Arizona hosting Seattle at +5 a 30% difference

Sharp NFL Totals:

Carolina vs Houston over 47 a 26% difference

Oakland vs Indianapolis over 45 a 36% difference

New England vs Buffalo under from 44 to 42.5  a 25% difference

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh over 43.5 a 41% difference

 

 

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