A little magic in that late Jazz/Suns game gave us the 3-0 record we were looking for in another great day in NBA betting for yours truly. Holding strong at our long-clip of a 58% winning percentage, we march on and try not to feel too fat and sassy about our wins. Happy Friday-Eve everyone!

Parlay, Mavericks win and Bucks/Mavericks over 226 (-110), 1 unit to win 2.38 units: What was that from the Mavericks last night? It wasn’t a good look, I’ll tell ya that. And what about the Bucks on Tuesday? The Warriors got beaten by 50 plus by the Raptors and then not only hung with but overcame Milwaukee at home. Curry dropping 41 was certainly a part of that, as well as Giannis’ lingering knee issues. I think Luka will be the story tonight. Before that debacle last night against the Rockets, the Mavericks have been on a tear lately. Standing at 7th in the Western Conference standings, Dallas won 5 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 before losing to Houston. Doncic was a huge part of their success. Luka has been routinely scoring 30-40 points and his supporting cast has been stellar, too. Hardaway Jr., Porzingis, Richardson, Finney-Smith, and others can all contribute and do so on a regular basis. Luka is never alone on offense, and it’s one reason why he really thrives. Milwaukee is one of the fastest teams in the league (3rd overall in tempo) and a top 5 offense in scoring and efficiency. In fact, no team scores more than the Bucks on a regular basis. Giannis is doubtful tonight, which obviously affects their output, but I still think the Bucks try to boat-race the Mavericks and push the pace on Dallas’ home floor. With or without the “Greek Freak,” they’re hungry for a win. And we all know Luka and company can keep pace. I think the Mavericks, who recently beat the Jazz at home, show up and get a big victory Thursday night against another elite team. The total is a bit deflated because of Giannis’ absence, so I’ll take advantage and parlay the over into it.

Suns/Clippers over 221 (-110), 2 units: The big showdown of the night is yet another Western Conference battle of elites as the Suns travel to LA to face the Clippers off a huge win against the Jazz. We got a little lucky last night when we hit the over, but I like it even more at a reduced line tonight.

The Jazz and Suns game was a terrific watch. Donovan Mitchell dropped 41, Devin Booker had 35, Rudy Gobert had an astounding 18 rebounds, and Chris Paul unsurprisingly led both teams with 9 assists but more importantly, served as court-general when it mattered most. I’ve talked about it before and I’ll say it again– the addition of Chris Paul on the Suns is something special. The Suns are virtually the same exact team as they were in previous years, except for the addition of Paul. CP3 leads like Lebron (they’re best friends for a reason) and has a moxie and leadership style similar to Kobe Bryant. He has a way of making plays in the clutch– he had the game’s 2 final points at the end of OT to seal the win, go figure– and knows how to bring the best out of his teammates. The line is appropriately favoring the Clippers by 6 points tonight. They’re healthy, off 2 days of rest and they’ve been playing great basketball on both sides of the floor. I want to lean to the Phoenix side so I’ll fade that play today.

So then why do I like the over? The Suns played magnificent defense last night. They held the Jazz to only 25% from beyond the arc and, despite my prognosis, slowed down the game and never allowed the Jazz to pull away. They also dominated at the rim, out-rebounding the Jazz 61-45. A performance like that is playoff-worthy and it’s one reason why I like the Suns in the playoffs. But they are human. Humans get tired, even pro-athletes, and I could see their defense being a little more permissive tonight. LAC is second only to the Nets in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s metrics. They’re 8th overall in points per game, too. In the Clippers’ last game against the Blazers, Paul George dazzled with 22 points in the first quarter. He also dropped 39 on the Suns in their last battle, a game that ended right around tonight’s total at 219 points. But that was against a different Phoenix unit. The Suns are more confident and more able on the offensive end and they’ll need to be to stay within pace of the Clippers. LAC is 59.3% ATS at home, a stat that rivals the Suns’ NBA leading ATS record of 33-17 overall (66%). This should be a fantastic back and forth game, but I expect less of a war at the rim and more of a beautiful display of great shooters at a heightened pace. Give me the over!

Blazers +6 (-110), 1.5 units: Speaking of last night’s game (as I referenced a-plenty in the pick above), how well will the Jazz do tonight? I’m not so sure. That has to feel like a pretty deflating game, in a contest where you expect to win as the Western Conference’s leading team, only to get bested by one of your arch-rivals. The Jazz have now lost two in a row against their nemeses of the West and here comes another on Thursday night. And the Blazers need a win, too. Portland won 5 of their last 6 games before dropping their last contest to the Clippers, a game we knew was coming and we won a little money from, but this is a better setup for the Blazers. No stranger to and no fears of being a road warrior, the Blazers are one of the better NBA teams away from Portland, covering 60% of the time this season (15-10 overall). In recent past, they won 4 straight games on the road. Even though Utah didn’t win, the Jazz are just as beat up and exhausted as the Suns after last night. Maybe even more so since all that energy was spent and it amounted to a loss. I see a big Damian Lillard game tonight, aided by a healthy and rested unit that should come out with far more energy than the Jazz. Give me the Blazers to cover.

Decent day in NBA betting yesterday– we went 2-2 overall but one loss was a parlay and we were pretty dead-on about the Clippers. More opportunity today, more wins on the horizon. Let’s go!

Wizards -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Bradley Beal is questionable tonight and obviously we hope he plays, but even without Beal I like the Wizards in this spot. Or maybe I should say, I really dislike the Magic in this spot. Orlando’s big game was 3 days ago against the Nuggets and they played really well for 2.5 quarters. Motivated no doubt by the Aaron Gordon trade and out to prove they can still hang, they very nearly shocked the Nuggets… that is, until Denver decided to turn up the heat and they ended up easily winning (and nearly covering) by 10 points. The Magic led by as much as 18 in that contest but it wasn’t enough. Aaron Gordon actually ended up being the game’s leading scorer, go figure, and all hopes for an Orlando victory were torn to shreds. This is an obvious let-down spot for them tonight. Their season is over, and what residual effects does that loss against Denver still carry? One thing is for sure, Russel Westbrook won’t be affected by the Wizards’ record or playoff chances. The enigma that is Russel Westbrook plays hard no matter what and I could see him destroying an Orlando team that’s very injured and especially in the last 2 games, very poor on defense. I’ll take the Wizards for a light cover.

Nets/Pelicans over 233.5 (-110), 2.5 units: I’m not sure if you’ve noticed but New Orleans has been absolutely abysmal on defense lately. Allowing 117.6 points in their last 5 games and now ranked 26th in points allowed and 28th in Hollinger’s defensive efficiency ratings, this game does not set up well for a beat-up Pelicans team. Zion should play but Brandon Ingram is questionable and Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are out tonight. You know who’s NOT out tonight? Kevin Durant. And what a spot for the former MVP to be back in the spotlight. James Harden won’t play, which isn’t great for their offense, but I expect a big night from Kyrie and Durant and other Nets’ contributors to have their own success throughout the 48 minutes. I also expect a big game from Zion. Aldridge and Griffin will provide some front court support but Zion has shown confidence and an aggressive ability to drive the ball no matter who’s down low. He’ll have to push the pace to keep up with Brooklyn. A unique 2+ unit play for me, I see no reason why the Nets won’t show out tonight and send this total soaring over.

Jazz/Suns over 227 (-110), 2 units: This is the marquee matchup Wednesday night and I’m pretty damn excited to watch. The Utah Jazz travel to Phoenix to take on a white-hot team for the 2nd game in a row. Two short nights ago, the Jazz lost to the surging Dallas Mavericks. While that’s nothing to be ashamed of, especially with their dominant Western Conference record and position, it’ll be a tall task to turn around and win tonight in Phoenix. The Suns have won 10 of their last 12 games and have now scored 6 straight victories in a row. Remarkably, much of that success is due to their efforts on offense. In their last four games, the Suns have averaged a staggering 127.75 points per contest. Not your momma’s Suns, eh? We know about their ability on defense but they keep improving on the other side of the court. They’re a top 10 team in points per game and Hollinger metrics ranks them as 7th overall in offensive efficiency. The Jazz? They rank even better at 3rd overall in offensive efficiency. I think that’s the story of this game. Phoenix has increased their tempo significantly, now ranking 24th overall in pace, and I think they continue to use that recipe to try and overwhelm the Jazz. In their own right, the Jazz won’t be intimidated and it’s unlikely they’ll be stifled by the Suns’ defense. Utah averages 117 ppg and they’re top 5 in offensive rebounding– they’ll get theirs. I love this over tonight in what should be a great game with a testy playoff feel! Wooey!

A fine 1-1 start to the week– let’s get more angles and more wins, shall we?

Pacers win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Even if Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon don’t play, I’ll still be on the Pacers tonight (but just for 1 unit in that case). Chicago is at the start of a 5 game road trip Tuesday that includes tough games against Atlanta and Memphis. Off a rare win against the Nets, Zach LaVine and company head to Indiana to face a Pacers team that’s been struggling lately. The Pacers recently beat the Spurs in OT, a win they needed, but before that they lost against the Wizards, Hornets, and only scored 87 in a loss against Miami. They need to find more rhythm on offense. Still, Indiana is a balanced team and a better team than Chicago. The Pacers are top 5 in assists per game and above average in field goal percentage. They also rank 11th overall in defensive efficiency. I like the addition of Nikola Vucevic for Chicago but after that big win against Brooklyn, Chi-town might feel a little fat and sassy coming into this contest tonight. On paper and in the truest form, the Bulls still aren’t as talented and capable as Indiana. After getting 3 days rest, I think all of Indiana’s key contributors will suit up tonight. It’s a bigger game than one may think. Both teams need to start stacking up wins since a playoff seed is far from guaranteed at this point. There’s your motivation, Indiana. Now get it done!

Hawks -3.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Pelicans could be down multiple starters tonight with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Steven Adams all listed as questionable to play. The Hawks, meanwhile, are as healthy as it gets. Leadership and solid outings (and a big pay-day) from Lou Williams, dynamic scoring ability from Trae Young and consistent front court play from Clint Capela have the Hawks on a 3 game winning streak. I like how ego-less the Hawks are, too. Trae isn’t the flashiest or most arrogant star. Lou Williams is a consummate pro. And Clint Capela and other team members know how to contribute in their role. Maybe Nate McMillan should keep his job because he has Atlanta gelling and winning better than his predecessor. New Orleans already really struggles on defense and it sounds like their big-men won’t be available tonight (key word, sounds like). If Zion and Adams sit, this line will go up and this will feel like a great early play. But even if they do suit up, Atlanta is hot right now and they easily have the better spot. They’re at home tomorrow against Memphis; the Pelicans have to turn around and travel to Philly Wednesday. Advantage– Hawks. I like the over, too.

Sixers -2 (-115), 2 units: All signs point towards Joel Embiid playing tonight and ya know what I say to that? LET’S GO! The 76ers did a fantastic job staying afloat in his absence, winning 8 out of 12 games without their MVP caliber star. And Joel was the leading MVP candidate when he got injured. Make no mistake about it, if the Sixers are saying Embiid can suit up, that means he’s ready. The playoffs are peering around the corner and the Sixers don’t need to push anyone or anything to get there. They’ll get there. Still, reports say Joel is suiting up tonight and that’s an exciting prospect for Philly. Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris have done a great job the past month leading the team, although Simmons regressed a little in his last outing against Memphis. Look for that to change tonight. I can see Simmons asserting himself on a Celtics squad that’s really struggling lately on defense, especially against teams not named the Rockets and Thunder. Boston has a few recent wins in their pocket but against who? I’m not impressed. I haven’t been able to trust the Celtics all year and I absolutely don’t trust them against a motivated Philly team off a bad loss. I trust them even less knowing that they have a back-to-back against the Knicks tomorrow night. Boston hasn’t beat Philly yet this year and it won’t start tonight. Bet Philly.

Parlay, Clippers win and Clippers/Blazers under 229, 1 unit to win 1.8 units: I’m really interested in this game and think it could be the most entertaining of the night. I just think it’ll probably be the same story as always: At times, we all watch Portland and they’re white hot, they look like they’ll contend in the playoffs, they’re winning a ton of games… and then a Western Conference giant faces the Blazers and suddenly, they don’t look very exciting or nearly as capable. I hope that’s not the case, truly. Who doesn’t love watching Damian Lillard drop buckets from 38 feet in late game heroics? I know I do. He’s an electric player and probably doesn’t get all the credit he deserves. McCollum and Kanter and Covington and Jones Jr. are underrated, too. The Blazers are actually pretty stacked, at least on the offensive side. But this line favors the Clippers at almost 3 possessions for a reason. LAC has won 7 of their last 9 games. They’re also one of the few teams in the NBA who are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (3rd on offense and 9th on defense according to Hollinger team ratings). The line and the data tell us that the Clippers can control this game and I think they will. That means it’ll move at a super slow pace (LAC is 28th in the NBA in tempo) and the Clippers will clamp down on Portland’s star players. Lillard’s prop bet for points is set at 27.5, lower than usual, and I think it’s dead on. Dame-time will be put in uncomfortable spots he’s not used to and as long as the Clippers don’t rest anyone tonight, this game could fall significantly under the total. Bet LAC, go under. Parlay it if you dare.