We have a great show for you today! Our very own Chris Farley comes on to break down some NBA and UFC 262! Before Chris comes on, Kiev talks about the NFL schedules that just came out today as well the Tim Tebow situation in Jacksonville. Then, Chris comes on and he has been on fire in the NBA, MLB and UFC over here at TheOddsBreakers.com and he was nice enough to come on to give us some of his info, style and methods when it comes to sports betting and handicapping the NBA. Chris also gives us a few plays for tonight’s games. After all of that, Chris and Kiev talk about UFC 262 with some info, break downs and plays! Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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Well, I’m off to a red hot start going 0-5 in my first five games. We have 5 games today, with some playoff implications on the line, specifically in the West Division. Lets take a look at the todays slate and breakdown some matchups.
Vegas Golden Knights (-190) @ San Jose Sharks (+165)
The Golden Knights look for a bounce back game vs the Sharks after a 2-1 loss against the Avalanche where they could have locked up the #1 Seed in the Western Division. The Sharks are also coming off a 5-4 loss vs Arizona, except this game has no meaning for them as they have already been eliminated from the post season.
The Knights are expected to start Fleury as they continue their goalie rotation as they have all year. Fleury has faced the Sharks in five games this season winning all of them with a GAA of 1.60. The Sharks have confirmed Alexei Melnichuk, who has only started one game this year. He lost 5-4 in OT to the Coyotes four days ago facing 32 shots for a 0.855 SV%.
Vegas has been solid on the road as of late going 7-2 in their last nine, while the Sharks have struggled at home going 3-7 in their last 10. The Sharks have nothing to play for but pride here which makes them a live dog, but Vegas also needs to win this matchup. Vegas hasn’t lost to the Sharks all season and are offered at a better line compared to the previous matchups.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights to win in Regulation -150 (Risk 1.5 Units)
Los Angeles Kings (+265) @ Colorado Avalanche (-330)
The Avalanche look to gain ground on the Golden Knights in this matchup, against a Kings team who has looked depleted the past few games.
The Avalanche are starting their top goalie Philipp Grubauer who’s undefeated in four games against the Kings averaging 1.25 goal against. Grubauer averages 2.00 GAA on the season which is good news for the Av’s as he’s historically played better against their opponent. The Kings have yet to name a starter but C. Peterson is expected who’s 0-5 against Colorado this season.
The Kings and Avalanche have both struggled to score in the past few games. The under will most likely be a popular play here for bettors given those trends. The Av’s have dominated this matchup all season long and should continue their ways here. Colorado has the best xGF, Corsi %, and Fenwick % in the league compared to the Kings who are in the bottom tier of all of those categories. This is one of the highest prices the Avalanche have been offered in this matchup implying they should take care of business.
Another 3-1 night and now we’re 21-6 the last 6 days of NBA betting! Not counting any chickens before they hatch and staying humble, let’s knock on as much wood as we can find and keep putting out sharp plays, shall we? We shall. Onto my hump day picks:
Wizards/Hawks over 238.5 (-110), 2 units: Well this is an auto-play at this point. Like I said in my last write-up, Bradley Beal’s absence isn’t great but it doesn’t completely inhibit the Wizards from scoring. Washington scores and scores fast because of their pace of play and because of Russel Westbrook’s masterful facilitation skills. The Wizards haven’t clinched anything yet and while it’s unlikely the Bulls can take them out of the 10th place and final play-in spot, they’re not looking at this or any game as a contest they can afford to lose. Washington has moved up to 4th overall in points per game and the Hawks, for what it’s worth, are an exceptional 8th overall in offensive efficiency; aka they’re no slouches on the offensive end either. The over is 6-0 ATS in the Wizards’ last 6 games and 4-0 ATS in Atlanta’s last 4 games. I can’t see this not going over again tonight, but crazier things have happened.
Celtics -6 (-110), 2 units: Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart have been added to the injury list and are out tonight, but I care not. After bad two losses to the Heat and now losers of 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5, Boston is stumbling into the postseason and they need to correct that, fast. No team wants to enter that cold. Expect a big game from Tatum tonight as the Celtics travel to Cleveland to take on a team that has been astoundingly bad ATS: over their last 14 games, the Cavs are 1-13 against the spread, and 8 out of those 13 losses have been by 16 points or more. It’s glaringly apparent that Cleveland has said bye-bye to the 2021 season; Boston needs to take advantage. And let’s put it this way– would you rather bet on Cleveland to cover at +6? No, no you wouldn’t. In the overanalytical world of sports betting, sometimes that’s all you need to ask yourself. I expect a double-digit win tonight, regardless of Boston’s missing pieces.
Lakers -11 (-115) if LeBron plays, 1.5 units: The Rockets have been covering more games lately but on the season, they’re a wretched 25-44 ATS. It’s rare any NBA team finishes below 40% ATS but Houston is locked into 36% and here comes the rejuvenated Lakers. I’m thinking that ATS number will keep dropping. Once again, it looks like King LeBron will suit up and play tonight (please God) and this bet depends on it. The Lakers won a tough-fought game last night against the Knicks, as we figured they would, and now they get to stay at home and face one of the worst teams in the NBA while fighting for that precious 6th spot in the West. In case you didn’t see my tweet earlier today, LAL could easily dethrone Portland for that 6th place. The Blazers have the Jazz, Suns and Nuggets remaining on their schedule; those are all games they could lose. Meanwhile lady luck clearly favors the 2020 champs as the Lakers will battle against the Rockets, Pacers and Pelicans to finish off their season. Advantage LAL. There’s virtually no chance (never say never) that the Lakers will allow themselves to blow this game and I expect them to put in max effort as they continue to gain steam and eye the postseason.
It’s no secret that the White Sox have been hot lately winning five of their last six games. Some people actually say that the Sox are regression candidates due to having such a high BABIP as well as ranking number 2 in opponent runs per game but I am somewhat skeptical on that. What I do know is that the Starting Pitcher for the Twins is a lefty in JA Happ who has a 5.01 ERA lifetime vs the Sox. We can’t forget that the Sox are the best batting team against lefties with a 1.41 wRC+. The Twins are a pretty good batting team themselves ranking 6th in wRC+ and they are facing Dallas Keuchel who is due for some negative regression himself having a 3.79 ERA with a 4.5 FIP. I think that we see some runs this game and this total is a bit low looking at the caliber of hitting that both of these teams have available. today.
I would say I’m sick of typing “I went 3-1 or 4-1” here but that couldn’t be further from the truth. After another 3-1 day we’ve gone 18-5 the last 5 days and I have no plan of stopping before the season ends. Handicapping and predicting the playoffs will be tough but at least we don’t have to question motivation! Onto Tuesday’s plays:
Nuggets -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: It’s really unlikely that Denver will lose their position in the 4th spot of the Western Conference playoffs. They’re a solid 4 games ahead of Dallas and they have an easier schedule: Charlotte tonight, followed by Minnesota, Detroit, and then Portland to cap the regular season. One more win would lock them in at 4th, but I don’t like their side tonight for any of those reasons. While it could add extra motivation, Denver will be inspired to play Tuesday because of their recent failures. The Nuggets dominated the NBA in April but they’ve now lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 entering tonight. Their recent losses were formidable– they dropped games to a resurging Lakers team, to the Nets and to the Jazz, the #1 team in the West. Still, Denver doesn’t want to enter the postseason on a lull. The Hornets are a solid basketball team and they’re at home, but these are the kind of games they’ve blown all year. While they can compete with and sometimes beat up on mid-tier teams, they’re no match for a team like the Nuggets. As a unit, Denver is top 10 in assist ratio, rebound ratio, effective field goal percentage, true-shooting percentage, and offensive efficiency. Their defense also allows the 9th fewest points per game. Aaron Gordon is probable to return and I expect the leading MVP candidate Nikola Jokic to impose his will tonight. I’m on Denver with confidence.
Timberwolves -7 (-115), 2 units: This is one of my favorite bets of the day. The Timberwolves, unlike most non-playoff teams, still love playing basketball. Sure sure, they recently dropped games to a few superior opponents, but lately we’ve seen a burgeoning from these young talented Minnesota players. It’s exciting to think about how good they could be in the future. D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards round up an athletic and explosive group of performers, each regularly scoring in the double-digits, that are incredibly fun to watch. They’ve collectively laid waste to bad teams like Orlando, Houston, and Sacramento recently, and they’ve even pulled off victories against the Warriors and Jazz (they actually beat Utah twice in a row). If the Pistons had Jerami Grant back tonight I might be less inclined to bet the Timberwolves’ side here, but I just don’t see how they don’t get another big win. Detroit has been getting manhandled by mid-tier teams and with all their young studs healthy and looking to put on a show, this amped up Minnesota squad should do it again tonight.
Nets -4.5 (-115) if Durant/Kyrie play, 2 units: Don’t overthink this. The Nets are somewhat stumbling into the end of their season, losing 4 out of their last 5 games. Saturday’s comeback win against Denver was sweet, but I don’t think Durant and Kyrie are done. The Nets led the Eastern Conference for a large amount of the season and now they’re in danger of losing the 2 seed. Nut uh, I can’t see it. The Nets know how integral that 1 or 2 seed is, the road to the Finals looks significantly less challenging from the top, and they’re not about to let a fat and sassy Bulls team affect their chances. Chicago has played well lately but forgive me if I’m not overly impressed. Recent wins against the Hornets, the volatile Celtics and the Pistons don’t excite me. LaVine and Vucevic are good; they’re not Kyrie and Durant good. I realize the Nets don’t play great defense (neither does Chicago), but offensively these two teams are on different planets. As long as Brooklyn doesn’t have some kind of cataclysmic shooting night, this one shouldn’t be close.
Lakers -5.5 (-115) if Lebron is back, 2 units: I love the Knicks, hopefully you all know that from reading my posts, but it feels like New York is running full speed into a buzz-saw tonight. This is not a hype-article propagating the Lakers’ triumphant and redemptive playoff run about to happen– I really don’t see it this year– but all signs point towards a symphony of events coming together just in time for Tuesday’s showdown. First, the Knicks just got a huge win against the Clippers Sunday. Grinding through a long road trip where they recently lost to the Nuggets and Suns, the Knicks seemed undeterred Sunday, out-playing and out-defending the Clippers for 48 minutes (much to the chagrin of Kawhi and company). Although still a game or two away from cementing their official spot in the playoffs, that victory certainly helped their chances. The rest of their schedule isn’t easy but it’s doable– they finish off against San Antonio, Charlotte, and then Boston. The Knicks will win at least one or two of those contests and they know it. Tonight, on the final leg of this insanely arduous road trip, New York faces a very hungry Lakers team. Fresh off a massive game from Anthony Davis (42 points, 12 rebounds) against the Suns, King James is set to make his glorious return and, shocker, suddenly the Lakers are looking very healthy. Their only missing piece is Dennis Schroder, but he should be back by playoff time. The Blazers have a really difficult ending to their season with games against Utah, Phoenix, and Denver down the stretch. The Lakers road looks much easier: New York tonight and then Houston, Indiana and New Orleans. Portland is only 1 1/2 games ahead of LAL, meaning it’s very reasonable to imagine LAL sitting in the 6th spot instead of Portland at season’s end. All the motivation, players, and situational spots are right on target, while the Knicks probably just want to go home. If Lebron plays, I expect a big Lakers win.
Kings -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Kings are a lot like the Timberwolves– they still enjoy playing basketball. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and the Thunder have mailed it in. Two days ago the Kings handily beat OKC by 28 points. Why wouldn’t that repeat? It’s an overly-simple handicap but it’s worth 1 unit for me to wager.
We have a small late of NHL games tonight as we just have two matchups. The first being a Eastern Division rivalry between two playoff bound teams, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals. The second matchup is a little less exciting as the Vancouver Canucks travel Winnipeg to take on the Jets. Lets take a look at the Bruins vs the Caps and breakdown the matchup and pick.
Boston Bruins (+140) @ Washington Capitals (-160)
We have a playoff preview in tonight’s game as the Boston Bruins travel to the nation’s capital to take on Washington. This game means absolutely nothing for either side as the seeding has already been set. The series between Boston and Washington will start this Saturday night.
The Capitals have confirmed they’re starting Vitek Vanecek who has a 3-3 record and 3.19 GAA in the six games he’s faced Boston this year. Opposite of Vanecek the Bruins are starting Jeremy Swayman, a young goalie who has been great all year. He enters the game with a 7-2 record in 9 games played with a 1.44 GAA. He’s faced the Capitals once this year where he picked up the win in a 4-2 game.
The Boston Bruins are red hot entering this matchup and are clicking on all cylinders. The Bruins however have struggled in the second leg of back to back games. The line opened -115 for Washington and has shifted all the way to -160 (61.5%). This is the highest line for the Capitals in all of their matchups this year. The goalie matchup is the biggest factor for me here, I think the Bruins have the edge and despite back to back games I think the Bruins are just playing better hockey than the Capitals.
The Padres/Rockies game didn’t happen and Baltimore pushed in the first 5 but the Reds and Giants delivered– gotta love a nice parlay to start the week, too! After a lovely 2-1 start, we move on with 4 more plays today:
Reds (+105) and Orioles (+133) win, 1 unit each: Hold on– you’re telling me I get the Reds, who smashed the Pirates yesterday in Pittsburgh, and I get John Means fresh off a no-no against Seattle, for + money? Well like my best buddy from the military used to say– slap my ass and call me Sandy, count me in (it’s not supposed to make sense)! I don’t care if they both lose; this is another shot at value and we can’t not take it. On paper, Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker (2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 32.1 innings) has better stats than Cincinnati’s Jeff Hoffman (4.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 26.2 innings). Brubaker has been solid but he’s on a 3 game losing streak and oh by the way, he lost in his first start against this very same Reds team. He’s a good pitcher but he’s not elite. For what it’s worth, Hoffman was only humbled by the White Sox and Dodgers this year, and we all know the Pirates’ bats aren’t in the same universe as the Sox and Dodgers. Baseball is a pitcher’s game but the Reds’ offense is considerably better than their foe today. I’ll gladly take a shot on them winning game 2 at PNC Park.
John Means (1.37 ERA, 0.67 WHIP over 46 innings) takes the mound after commanding a no-hitter last week, the first for Baltimore since 1969. That’s pretty incredible. Means has been incomparable this short season and it’s not a fluke– his velocity is crisp, his BABIP is a career low .158 and he has a 100% LOB percentage. Not bad John, not bad. The Mets send Marcus Stroman (2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 34 innings) to the dirt today, who’s been exceptional for New York, but I’m happy to build off Means’ momentum and confidence against a shaky lineup from Queens. The Mets are due some positive regression in a multitude of areas but this isn’t the day to get it.
Rockies win (+150), 1 unit and Rockies/Padres over 10 (-110), 2 units: ESPN has certainly failed me before but according to them and other sites this is still a battle between Dinelson Lamet and Antonio Senzatela. Because that’s the case, I’ll repeat my pick from yesterday and apply it today. Read my analysis from yesterday’s write up to learn why.
Rough start to the season with my first two picks gong 0-2 (-2.70 Units). However, we look to turn that around today as we have a loaded NHL slate of games today. There’s some really exciting matchups, so let’s break one those games down.
Tampa Bay Lighting (+130) @ Florida Panthers (-150)
The Tampa Bay Lightning square off against the Florida Panthers in their final game of the season. The Lighting are coming off a 5-1 loss against the Panthers on Saturday. This game is a playoff series preview between these two teams. However, even though this is the last game of the season, the winner of this matchup will get home ice advantage in the playoffs. The home ice advantage means more for these two teams since they have some of the largest Coivd-19 capacities (~25%).
Florida lead this season series 4-3 and are coming into this game on a 11-1 streak in their last 12 at home. Tampa Bay has not officially confirmed their starter but Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the nod for the Bolts. He’s 2-3 against Florida this year with a 3.23 GAA. Vasilevskiy has struggled as of late with his SV% being the lowest its been in May. He’s also played worse on the road than at home. The Panthers have confirmed that Chris Driedger will start. He has only faced Tampa twice this year, picking up three out of four points.
This should be a playoff type matchup between these two squads tonight. The over in this series is 5-1-1 and is 3-0-1 when the total is set at 6.0 (tonight’s total). In the previous 7 matchups, Florida has not been the favorite once. The opening line for this game had the Bolts -140 but has shifted in the Panthers favor to -150. Tonight, Florida is has an implied winning probability of 60%. Even with Tampa’s struggles as of late, injuries, and suspension, the previous matchups have been so close I think don’t agree with those odds for Florida.
Yet another 4-1 performance Sunday capped off a fantastic week for yours truly in NBA picks. Of course, this whole season has been pretty spectacular. We were 21-10 last week, 15-4 the past 4 days, and now 192-140 (58%) overall this year. It’s the final week of the NBA’s regular season and it’s my sole intention to finish as high as we started. Let’s go!
Pacers -8 (-110), 1.5 units: This line is now all the way up to -9 at most books and I still like that number. Indiana should win this by double digits. The Cavaliers have now lost 10 straight games and if you want to know just how bad they’re losing, check out the stats my article yesterday— they’re getting their asses kicked night in and night out. The reality is that Cleveland has mailed it in for the season and even if they didn’t want to mail it in, they’re just way too injured. Any chance they had of resurrecting their season dissipated months ago when injuries kept stacking up and wins became more sparse. Collin Sexton is easy to cheer for and Kevin Love is back, but they just don’t have the talent or depth to rival a motivated team like Indiana. The Pacers aren’t exactly healthy either, but the good news is Domantas Sabonis (probably the most integral piece to Indiana’s success), Chris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon will all play tonight. The Pacers sit at 10th in the East, the final spot to enter to play-in tournament for a chance at the postseason. I don’t think they’ll win that play-in tournament but they have a real reason and the inspiration to play for something tonight. The Pacers face a really tough remaining schedule with Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LAL, and Toronto all coming this week, so they really need to win this one. I don’t like that Indiana hosts the 76ers tomorrow night but the Cavs just got annihilated 24 hours ago by Dallas, losing by 27 points, so this is still a tougher spot for Cleveland. All systems go– time for the Pacers to impose their will and prove they want it.
Wizards/Hawks over 237 (-115), 2 units: If you’ve read my articles you know I love to talk about and quantify the Wizards totals the past few weeks. They simply cannot be stopped. Bradley Beal has a hamstring issue so he won’t play tonight, but Beal isn’t the only reason the Wizards score so many points. It’ll hurt not having their star but if anything, I’d say Russel Westbrook is the most integral cog in their offensive machine. The Wizards have been ranked #1 in pace for quite some time now, reminiscent of the Warriors teams of the past, and it’s why they’re able to overwhelm their opponents. Russel is a master at sprinting down the court, facilitating the ball and creating opportunities for his teammates. Beal might be the biggest beneficiary of that but we’ve seen big games from Hachimura, Bertans, Neto and others too. The Hawks don’t play nearly as fast as Washington but they make up for it in other ways. Trae Young leads an effective group of shooters that are ranked 8th overall in offensive efficiency and 14th overall in points per game (113.3). Lately they’ve been scoring even more, averaging 123 points over their last 4 contests. Picking the under in a Wizards game feels like blasphemy these days and I won’t do it tonight, especially at any number falling under 240. Book it.
Bucks -7 (-110), 1 unit: This one is really tough to call. I’ll only put 1 unit on it but I think the Bucks can overwhelm San Antonio. The Spurs love to run at a methodical pace and play solid defense but they won’t blow you away in any one area. The Bucks? They’re all about blowing the other team away. Milwaukee has one style to eliminate their opponents and it hasn’t changed much the last few years– let Giannis sprint in, create space and dominate the front court. San Antonio no longer has the size and prowess in their own front court to stop someone like Giannis and I think that could be a real problem tonight. Their starting forward Keldon Johnson is 6’5″ and their starting center Jakob Peoltl, the Austrian who stands at 7’1″, has solid moments but rarely dominates at the rim. Ergo, I think the Greek-Freak will do whatever he wants in this contest. This is a tough game to handicap because both teams really want to win. The Spurs still sit at 10th overall in the West, the final play-in spot, while the Pelicans are breathing down their neck sitting only 1 1/2 games back. San Antonio has a brutal stretch to end the season (New York, Brooklyn, Phoenix x 2) and needs every win they can get. The Bucks have taken advantage of the Nets’ recent failures and only sit 1/2 game back of 2nd place in the East. The 1st and 2nd place spots are extremely important in the Eastern Conference and no doubt the Bucks are amped to have a shot at it. For as much as San Antonio has fought hard and for as good as they are against the spread, I have to favor the considerably better team here, especially since they should be just as motivated to win. Only 1 unit, but I’m on Milwaukee to cover.
Steph Curry over 35.5 points (-115), 2 units and Lean, Warriors win (+110): I’ll probably sprinkle some money on the Warriors winning but it’s just a lean for now. I do think this will be a big Steph Curry game. Just for perspective, Curry has scored over 35.5 points in 13 of his last 20 games. Many of those over 35.5 point games were against the NBA’s better defensive teams: Denver, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philadelphia. And now here comes another marquee matchup between the #1 team in the West in the Utah Jazz and the #8 team in Golden State, a squad that’s almost solely in a position to make the playoffs because of their star. It’s true that the Jazz are extremely good on defense, they rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and allow the 3rd least points per game, but I think it’s fair to say that Rudy Gobert is the dominant factor in that equation. The 7’1″ French giant will probably win defensive player of the year again and he deserves it. What Gobert cannot hope to control is Steph Curry. Curry is too talented at moving around off the pick and roll and too crafty at finding ways to out-dribble his opponent and create distance. With pride and motivation soaring inside Curry tonight at the Chase Center, I don’t think there’s any chance (barring an injury, knock on wood) that we don’t see another electric performance from #30. The Warriors could very well win, but I’ll confidently ride Curry’s points for now. Look at a first quarter or first half line on Golden State, too. I could see them coming out really hot, although Utah could end up overcoming it towards the end.
