Another nice night in the NBA lands us at 2-0 overall. Good thing I only leaned those other 2 sides. It’s one thing to win a bet, it’s another thing to be dead-on in your analysis and handicap and that’s how I felt last night watching LeMarcus Aldridge starting for the Nets. He was an instant difference-maker, as I predicted, and the Hornets were no match for Brooklyn’s balanced attack. If they can keep on incorporating Aldridge into their game-plan, the sky is the limit for the Nets. Onto Friday’s picks!

Warriors +4.5 (-115), 1 unit and GS/TOR under 221.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Maybe this is a trap but good Lord, what’s wrong with the Raptors right now? Injuries haven’t helped but Toronto is showing a real lack of chemistry and leadership and it’s really starting to throw the entire unit into disarray. Lowry is out tonight and talks of him being swept up by the Heat in free agency are still looming. Golden State will be without Curry but the Warriors have showed they can really flex on defense and produce enough on offense through their young stars to get a win. If you’re giving me 4.5 points on one of the most well-coached and talented young teams in the NBA against THIS Raptors unit (who’s now lost 4 straight), I have to take it. I also like the under. Both of these teams have scored well below their season average in their last few contests and with all the injuries and uncertainty, defense should win the day.

Pacers -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well we saw that loss coming 2 nights ago for Indiana. The Heat were bested by the Pacers twice at their own home court so when they found themselves down again in the 2nd half, the Heat clamped down on defense and pulled ahead. That’s an intangible that’s hard to measure but one that wins and covers in so many games; it also proves you’re an elite team. Miami has been inconsistent this year but just like we saw in the 2020 playoffs, they’re battled tested, tough, and capable of knocking off any team when the chips are down. Indiana isn’t there yet but this is a good spot for the Pacers to land a win. The Hornets just got squashed last night by the Nets, we cashed that bet, and now have to turn around and face an Indiana team that’s pissed off at home and looking for some redemption. The Hornets are a good team but now that they have a more volatile Terry Rozier at the helm, they just don’t have enough skilled facilitators and veteran leadership to win consistently. This is another bad spot for them on a long road trip before they have to face the Celtics Sunday and then the Bucks soon thereafter next week. Indiana travels to San Antonio tomorrow but I think this game means more to them and they snag a win and cover. Charlotte must be tired. Look to fade the Pacers tomorrow.

Grizzlies -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a perfect setup for Memphis. All the Grizzlies do is beat up on bad or average teams and lose handily to the elite. Fresh off yet another defeat at the hands of the Western Conference elite Jazz, which PS was their 3rd loss in less than a week to Utah (and that last one was close, so that must really hurt), Memphis is no doubt out for blood tonight and hungry for a big win. Well the basketball gods are giving them a treat. The last placed Minnesota Timberwolves visit Memphis ripe off a rare win against the New York Knicks, who are struggling to play consistent basketball and dealing with a bunch of injuries. Minnesota stayed the course and eked out a 1 point victory over New York on Wednesday. After tonight they’ll travel to Philadelphia tomorrow as their new road trip only gets more brutal. Minnesota and Memphis are both top 7 in pace, but unfortunately the Grizzlies are considerably better on offense and lightyears ahead of the Timberwolves on defense. Posting one of the worst point differentials in the NBA (only the Cavs are worse), I think the T-Wolves are primed to become wolf-meat. Grizzlies all day for me.

Bucks/Blazers first quarter over 59 (-115), 2.5 units and Bucks win 1st quarter (-130), 2 units: The Blazers have been on a tear lately, winning their last 4 games, all on the road, and by an average margin right around 10 points. In those games, Portland has scored 124, 122, 112, and 125. They’re lighting up the scoreboard and racing ahead of their opponents, and it’s showing. A team usually not known for their tempo, the Blazers are now the 17th fastest unit in the NBA. Milwaukee is #3. You know what other tidbit I gathered in looking at the Blazers’ last 4 wins? They don’t play much defense in the 1st quarter. Teams have scored 25, 32, 41, and 33 points in the first 12 minutes of play. And these aren’t offensive juggernauts either– we’re talking about the Pistons, Raptors, Heat and Magic– four of the lowest scoring teams in the association. The Bucks thrive by moving the ball quickly down the court, often thanks to Giannis’ long strides, and scoring quickly and in bunches. It overwhelms opponents and it reminds me of what we’re seeing in Gonzaga. This game could slow down if it gets contentious later in the game, but I love the first quarter going over. I expect a barrage of offense from two confident teams; Milwaukee is feeling equally good after their big win over LAL. For all the reasons mentioned above, I like the Bucks in the first, too.

Just because MLB is back (and I’m loving it already) doesn’t mean we’ll lose our grasp on the ol’ association– I was 5-2 in my free plays last night, holding steady at my 58% win clip since February 1. Two entire months. Cheers to that and cheers to all of you who read my posts. Onto our Thursday picks!

Lean, Wizards -2.5 (-110): The Pistons are so hard to predict and probably have a better bench than the Wizards. They wouldn’t be a bad underdog play. That being said, the up and down Wiz-kids are as inconsistent as their stars and maybe this is the night, one day after getting blown out by Portland, where Westbrook puts the team on his back and carries them to another win. It’s not a recipe for long-term success but they can beat bad teams and they’re due Thursday. And at least they’re at home in DC. Can’t bet either side though– these are two bad teams.

Nets -2 (-110), 2 units: This is a rare opportunity to take the Nets at a short number against a mid-tier Eastern Conference team. Harden is out tonight, I realize that, but I think this could be a “breath of fresh air” game for Brooklyn. They’re at home again tonight and they’re performing a little under expectations. They’re not blowing teams out like they usually do (although they really should have covered last night after they finally started flexing in the fourth) and they’ve had key players in and out of the lineup. Although MVP-contender James Harden is out, we’ll see the debut of LeMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is, in my opinion, a much bigger (literally) and much more integral addition to this Nets’ lineup. The Nets are obviously stellar on offense, arguably the best in the NBA, but their front court defense lacks toughness and doesn’t have a real veteran presence. Blake Griffin can celebrate that dunk all he wants but I don’t think he’s all that good anymore. He might add another weakness to their defense, to be honest. Aldridge, on the other hand, is still very good. Kyrie loves to be the team leader (or at least loves to believe he is) and he should thrive facilitating Aldridge in his first game with Brooklyn. Kyrie’s work with Lebron and Durant showcased how good he can work with a big.

The Hornets are better than a lot of people think. They’re 4th in the Eastern Conference standings and even without LaMelo Ball, they’re a dangerous, complete team that can hang with the elite. I know the Nets are on a back-to-back tonight but they’re still in a better spot at home and they get 3 days of rest after this game. The Hornets have to turn around tomorrow night and go to Indiana and then Boston on Sunday– that’s a pretty brutal road schedule. Situational and talent advantage goes to the Nets. Bet them with confidence.

Lean, Spurs win (-110): This is a straight up pick-em as two beat up non-conference teams face each other Thursday, one needing a win more than the other. Atlanta is near the end of a long, pain-staking road trip where they’ve dropped 4 out of 6. Tomorrow they end that trip at New Orleans– that won’t be easy. San Antonio is in the opposite boat. Right in the middle of an extremely long home-stand, the Spurs just got a great win last night against Sacramento after dropping their first contest to the Kings. Flexing on defense (and we hit the under because of it), the Spurs show a lot of grit and discipline in games where they’re motivated to win. I don’t know how motivated they’ll be tonight but I know they have to be more comfortable and focused than Atlanta. Advantage- Spurs.

Nuggets -2 (-110), 2 units: Denver is lookin’ scary since Aaron Gordon joined their lineup and I’m jumping on board. No doubt the Nuggets circled this game on their calendar. They lost their first matchup to LAC at the beginning of the season and lost it by margin. Jokic, Gordon, Murray, and a very healthy supporting cast have the Nuggets on a 3 game winning streak and they’ve now won 12 of their last 15 games. I said it a million times here and I’ll say it again– with a leader like Jokic and the talent they have in general, the Nuggets are a true contender this year for an NBA title. I’m not saying I favor them but I do think they’re every bit as good as the Clippers, Lakers, and Jazz when they’re motivated and playing as a unit. One thing I really like about Denver is how unselfish they are. Jokic is probably a big reason for that. The big-man from Serbia clearly doesn’t take himself all that seriously, (reminiscent in his wild celebratory jumps throughout the All-Star game, still laughing over that) even though he may be the most skilled center in the NBA. The Clippers come into tonight after a blazing finish to March where they won 6 games in a row before blowing their last contest against Orlando. They’re also very injured tonight. Beverly, George, Rondo, and Ibaka are all out and Morris isn’t 100%. I’m a big Kawhi fan but I think the Nuggets are playing too well and want this game too much. I love Denver tonight. PS– a parlay on the Nets/Nuggets, not a bad look.

For as long as January is, March feels all the more momentous and arduous. But here we are on the 31st day with the NCAA Tournament nearly over and the MLB season just 1 day away. The Northeast is warming up and after a 2-2 night, let’s hope these NBA picks do the same. I’ve always loved a hump day.

Blazers -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a lot of points to lay on the 4th straight road game for Portland but that’s not enough reason for me not to do it. This line is also growing by the second (I see it at -7.5 at some spots now). The Blazers have enjoyed their time away from home, winning 3 straight road games against Miami, Orlando, and Toronto. The final game before their triumphant return to Portland is against a lowly Detroit team who just eked out a rare win against the Raptors. Just another clumsy game for Toronto I suppose, but the Pistons bench really showed up in that game. They were responsible for 65 of their 118 points and the Pistons led all but a few seconds in the 1st quarter. Pretty impressive, but don’t expect it to repeat tonight. Detroit has back to back games starting Wednesday (Washington visits tomorrow), which means they’ll have two games trying to fend off offenses that like to boat-race their opponents. Portland scores the 8th most points per game and they boast a 6th best offensive efficiency rating on Hollinger’s team metrics. Detroit is in the bottom 5 in both those categories. Portland has had their struggles on defense but not against opponents as ineffective as Detroit. The Pistons won’t be able to keep up. I think Dame has a big game and this is a double-digit win.

Miami wins (-125), 1.25 units and Heat/Pacers under 218 (-110), 1 unit: I’m approaching this with caution but I’ll put a little more than 1 unit on this game for one simple reason: Miami really wants this. Nothing is more motivating than getting your ass kicked twice on your home floor and then you get a revenge-game shortly thereafter at your opponent’s backyard. That’s exactly what we’ll see Wednesday night between the Heat and Pacers. Just 10 days ago, the Pacers successfully knocked off the Heat twice in Miami– once by an overwhelming effort on offense and once in a grinding OT win with a little flex from Indiana’s defense. The Pacers, as we’ve said so many times here, are an extremely well-balanced team that can catch even the best teams if they’re asleep at the wheel. They play above-average offense and solid defense and don’t make many mistakes. Miami is built very similarly. The Heat just displayed one of their better games of the season against the Knicks two nights ago, holding New York to only 88 points. That’s a really amazing feat in today’s NBA. I don’t love that Miami has to turn around and face Golden State tomorrow, but they want this game more than Indiana. I expect an aggressive, gritty game from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler tonight that will mean a below-average output from Indiana and a win for Miami. They’re too battle-tested to let Indiana win 3 times in a row.

Celtics win (-105), 1 unit *if Jaylen Brown plays: I get why people are afraid to bet Boston (I am, too). The Celtics continue to be an up and down program. But for all the talk about Dallas being on the rise, they’re pretty damn up and down, too. The Mavericks stutter often against great opponents and this isn’t an easy spot. Dallas is in the middle of a grueling road stretch while Boston is finally back at home and has a bunch of easy matchups ahead. Jaylen Brown and Romeo Langford have just been upgraded to questionable, which usually means they’ll play, but watch for updates until right before tip-off. Boston is just coming off a bad loss and if the Celtics are healthy and at home, they can easily snag a win here. They need one.

Knicks -4 (-105), 1 unit: The Knicks are a considerably better team than the Timberwolves, period. I like this more after the Knicks suffered a hard loss against the Heat just two nights ago, a game where Miami out-muscled and played better defense than one of the best in the association. No doubt– the Knicks didn’t like that. No one allows less points than New York and we’ve seen what they can do on offense when they go up against bad defenses like Minnesota. In recent history, NY dropped 131 on the Wizards, 119 on OKC, 140 on Sacramento and 123 on Atlanta. The Knicks should be motivated to get back to their winning ways and know they need to take advantage of easier games like this as they battle for a playoff berth in May. This line is sneaky at just 4 so I’m approaching with caution, but I don’t see the Knicks losing this game. At a line just barely over a one-possession lead, I have to take New York.

Kings/Spurs under 231 (-110), 2 units: I’ll be brief here. These two squads faced 2 nights ago and although San Antonio just lost LeMarcus Aldridge and they’re dealing with injuries, it isn’t like them to allow 132 points to any team. The Kings were on fire Monday night, shooting 56% from the field and a ridiculous 50% from beyond the arc. San Antonio also shot the ball really well at 50% from the field. Lightning rarely strikes twice in any sport and I trust Coach Popovich to formulate a better defensive game-plan in this one. The Spurs are 12th overall in defensive efficiency and 11th best in the NBA at points allowed per game. Expect some negative scoring regression and the under to hit.

Bucks -8.5 (-110), 2 units: This line keeps moving up and up and it’s obvious why. The Bucks hadn’t lost a game since the All-Star break and were looking scarier than ever. While Kyrie sat out multiple games and Durant still hasn’t returned and Philly lost Embiid, Milwaukee was humming as a unit and Giannis, while playing through some injuries, was dominant as a scorer and facilitator. The Bucks won 8 games in a row during that span and seemed unbeatable. Then in 3 of their most recent games they hit a lull, losing to Boston, New York, and to LAC in ugly fashion. If you’ve been a fan of my articles you know that I’m a little less surprised by that than most– I don’t love the Bucks– but some of those losses aren’t what they seem. Giannis wasn’t himself against Boston. The Clippers have been on a tear and hit 19 three-pointers against Milwaukee. And the Knicks, well, the Knicks catch a lot of teams by surprise. Regardless, this is a showcase game tonight against the 2020 NBA Champions and Milwaukee will be up for the task. It’s the 2nd leg of a long road trip for the Bucks but all of their key players are healthy. LAL hits the road after tonight to face far easier competition, so I could see them bow-down a little in this spot. The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings against the Lakers and they need this game to get out of their rut. I lean the under in this game, too (the total is set at 222), but I can see the Bucks using their blitzing downcourt attack and trying to overwhelm LAL’s #1 rated defense. This is Milwaukee’s game to make a statement. Bet the Bucks.

Well it wasn’t the most sterling start to the week for yours truly last night (Pacers, really?) but we got a few good wins in there to make up for an overall losing night at 2-3. At 58% overall, we expect better things tonight. Let’s do it!

76ers +5 (-105), 1.5 units: As far as line movement goes, this is going against my best judgement. It started at Denver -4 and now it’s gone all the way up to Denver -5 with some extra juice. And I get why it’s moving. The 76ers are on a brutal 6-game road stretch right now that finally comes to an end on Thursday. And now they have to face the new-look Denver Nuggets with Aaron Gordon added to an already very talented roster. Gordon is a better role-player than a star and he should shine with his new squad. The Nuggets now have extremely talented players at every position of their starting lineup. With a roster that’s already deep, that’s a scary thought for their opponents and I think it makes them a real contender deep in the Western Conference playoffs. I actually liked them a lot before that trade so it’s even more true now. That being said, both the Nuggets and Sixers are on fire right now. The Nuggets have won 10/13 of their March games. The Sixers– 10/12. What’s most impressive about Philadelphia’s run is they’ve done it without their MVP-leading candidate Joel Embiid. Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and others have shown how deep Philly’s roster is and insured their team during Embiid’s absence. The 76ers still have the best record in the Eastern Conference because of it. I think this spot actually favors the Sixers more than the books want you to believe. For example, Philly has had 3 days to rest. This is also the last game the Sixers have to “get up for” on their road trip. Their final away game is against Cleveland on Thursday- yawn -and may serve as a let down spot or rest spot for Doc Rivers’ team. The Nuggets? They have to travel to LA on Thursday to face the Clippers, their Western Conference nemesis. The Clippers have looked sensational lately, winning their last 6 games and looking like the Lakers’ biggest competition come playoff time. The Nuggets could very well be looking ahead at that contest and underestimating what Philly can bring tonight. These are two well-balanced teams that play well on both sides of the court. Both have big, strong bodies and both front courts will battle at the rim. This has “close-game” written all over it so I can only go with the dog keeping it within 2 possessions. Bet the Sixers.

Suns -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Hawks/Suns under 220 (-105), 1 unit: This is a pretty perfect setup for Phoenix. The Hawks are in the middle of a long road stretch and they haven’t performed well, losing 3 of their last 5 games. The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 games and although they have the Bulls tomorrow night, they’re on a 3-game home stand that concludes with the Thunder (not scary) and then they travel to Houston (really not scary). Not a bad week. This is also a great matchup for the Suns stylistically. Atlanta runs at a bottom-third NBA pace. Phoenix is one of the slowest at 28th overall. The Hawks are an up and down, inconsistent offense that’s mid-tier at best. The Suns have a top 10 offense and top 5 defense according to Hollinger’s adjusted efficiency stats and they only allow 107 ppg, which is 3rd best in the association. They’ve only allowed 100.6 ppg in their last 6 games (they may be getting better..), and one of those games went to overtime. To make matters even worse for Atlanta, the Suns are fully healthy coming into Tuesday and the Hawks are very injured. Bogdanovic, Dunn, Gallinari, and Reddish are all out for Atlanta, while Capela and Hunter are banged up. The line is coming down a little on this game and I say let it drop! I’m all over Phoenix.

Magic/Clippers under 215 (-115), 2 units: We have to lay some extra VIG here but I don’t care– this is a sure-under game if you ask me. The Clippers are getting better and better on defense, now ranking top 10 overall in adjusted efficiency and only allowing 101.8 ppg during their latest 6 game winning streak. After losing some key offensive contributors, the Magic are getting worse. Orlando has averaged only 101 ppg in their last 5 contests and they’re rated as one of the worst 4 offenses in the NBA. Their defense has held up okay, they’re mid-tier, but it makes sense that taking all this into consideration, only 45.6% of their games have gone over the total this season. The Clippers and Magic are in the bottom third of the NBA in tempo as well. We’re stacking up the data, folks! If some of the LAC stars sit in this game, I like it even more. Bet the under.