I hope your Bloodies are treating you well after yesterday’s Kentucky Derby! One thing that you might be wondering here is why are the 16-9 Royals this big of dogs to the 9-16 Twins? This game features one of the best pitchers in baseball in Jose Berrios. Jose is sporting a 2.23 FIP after 25 innings this year putting him in early contention for at least an all-star appearance. Kansas City has Brad Keller at the helm who has started off quite rough having a 5.09 FIP over 18 miserable innings. Both bullpens have been pretty equal but Minnesota is the better hitting team ranking 9th in WRC+ to Kansas City’s 14th. There is a little more to this handicap. Minnesota needs this 3 game series against a division opponent badly and Kansas City is a big regression candidate ranking number 2 in LOB% and number 6 in batting average with RISP. Minnesota leads the Royals in batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Kansas City has been quite lucky thus far. Grabbing the ML and the Run Line here.
Minnesota -193 – 1.5 stars
Minnesota -1.5 -103 – 1.5 stars
Baltimore vs Oakland -195 O/U 8.5
Baltimore has been on a nice tear here winning their last 3 games in a row and 5 out of their last 7 but all good things must come to an end. This is a daytime game with the wind blowing out to left center. Both pitchers are lefties. Oakland has their stud pitcher Manaea with a 3.23 FIP going against Bruce Zimmerman who shouldn’t even be a starter. He is 1-3 so far with a 5.7 FIP. Both are lefties. Baltimore ranks 10th in the league batting against lefties with a nice .325 wOBA. Baltimore isn’t terrible against lefties with a .309 wOBA. The wind is blowing out yet there is money coming in on the under. I think it is because Baltimore ranks only 27th in WRC+ and Manaea is such a good pitcher. I think with the wind blowing out at 12 MPH, the safest play here is the Oakland team total over 4.5.
Nets/Bucks first quarter over 62 (-110), 2 units: I’d love to pick a side here but the reality is we’re stretching it if we think one team has any real advantage. Sunday is the start of two games at Milwaukee with a day of rest in-between, although Brooklyn does start a rough road stretch here (they’ll have to travel to Dallas, Denver, and then Chicago on this week’s tour). Both teams will start all their stars (sans James Harden, of course), although Giannis has been nursing an ankle injury as of late. The Greek-freak rested in the Bucks’ last game against Chicago, where they still got a nice win, and now should be primed and ready for this showcase matchup. The total is set at 244, which feels dead-on, and the Bucks should be favored since they’re at home and hungry to gain some steam in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee plays better defense than Brooklyn but these teams are largely mirrors of each other. They both like to play with tempo (Milwaukee is 2nd, Brooklyn is 11th), they’re the top scoring teams in the NBA (Milwaukee is #1, Brooklyn is a very close #2), and they’re both extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor (Brooklyn is 1st, Milwaukee is 5th overall according to Hollinger’s metrics). Because big-time battles like this can lead to more cerebral endings in a playoff-like atmosphere, I’d rather take a shot on an early over in the 1st quarter. Both squads should come out fired up and ready to put on a show, which usually means points, points, and more points. I love the first quarter going over 62.
Hornets +5 (-110), 1.5 units: I don’t know if Charlotte will win this game, but I’m pretty impressed by how they’ve remained in contention even without LaMelo Ball and while they’ve continually nursed injuries on/off the bench. I wish Gordon Hayward had a chance to come back, it’s unlikely he will this season, but Ball’s return led to an exciting result last night as the Hornets dismantled the Pistons at the Spectrum Center. The Heat travel to Charlotte today after an easy win at Cleveland so neither of these teams have had an extra day to rest. As it stands now, the Hornets would earn the final spot in the postseason if it started today, while the Heat are just a notch above them at 7th in the Eastern Conference. If these two teams have anything in common it’s their resiliency. They’re well-coached, savvy, and they always put in max-effort. Miami has the edge in defensive efficiency while the Hornets have a slight edge in offensive efficiency and points per game. Charlotte is at home and they’ve been injected with that facilitating, young LaMelo energy, so I simply can’t take the Heat to cover in this spot. I’m on a fired-up Charlotte unit.
Celtics +1 (-110), 1 unit: Both of these teams are surging but I like the Celtics, who seem to be finally finding a rhythm on offense (Tatum’s 60 point game didn’t hurt), to score the win at home here. The Blazers are in the middle of a brutal road trip and they travel to Atlanta tomorrow night. The Celtics will get a solid and rare 3 days of rest after today’s game. Two volatile teams but, advantage Boston.
Knicks/Rockets under 217.5 (-110), 1.5 units: No one except the Suns, who we think may the best team in the NBA right now, has been able to stop the Knicks lately. And very few teams have been able to overcome New York’s stifling defense. The Knicks are 1st in the NBA in points allowed per game (104.7) and they’ve been top 5 in defensive efficiency all year. In a game like this, where the books expect some margin with NY favored by over 10 points, I don’t see how the score can possibly get very high. While Julius Randle and RJ Barrett and other Knicks should have no trouble scoring, they should also have no angst or drive to push the tempo in this contest. New York should be able to control this game from start to finish (knocks on wood) against a Rockets team that couldn’t muster more than 87 points in their last matchup against Golden State. Even against bad defenses the Rocket don’t take advantage. Houston ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and they’re 24th in ppg– with so little to play for and with how slow the Knicks play (they’re second only to Miami as the slowest team in the association), I don’t see this total going over 210.
Suns first half -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: In case you haven’t noticed, the Suns are a really good ATS team. In fact, they’ve led the NBA for most of the regular season in various ATS categories. Facing an inept OKC team that’s clearly throwing in the towel on the season, I’ll take the Suns in the first half to get way ahead. Phoenix doesn’t want to lose their position (now sitting at 1st) in the Western Conference and while they may put on the breaks toward the end of the game, it should be pedal-to-the-medal in the first 24 minutes.
Not a great day in baseball betting last night but we still have a winning record overall this week. I see a lot of value out there Sunday so this article will have more picks but a little less meat in between. Let’s get to it:
Tigers first five +0.5 (+135), 1 unit: Will I ever learn? Maybe not. The Tigers should have hit this bet yesterday, which I gave to my premium customers, only to blow a bases-loaded opportunity in the top of the 5th and then letting NYY get ahead with some horrible errors at the bottom of the same inning. Today I’ll keep fading Kluber (4.15 ERA over 21.2 innings) until he proves he’s back in true form.
Marlins/Nats under 3.5 (-120), 1.5 units: A little extra juice here but I say it’s worth it. Miami’s bats have been ice cold at Nationals Park, but at least the Marlins have Trevor Rogers (1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 28 innings) to come to their aid. Max Scherzer (3.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 30 innings) is surely due for some redemption after that horrible showing against Toronto. I expect both pitchers to command well in the early going and keep this halfway total under.
Reds (-140), 1.4 units: I’ll side with the better home team and a much more consistent offense behind Tyler Mahle (1.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 25.2 innings) here. The Cubs eked out a win yesterday thanks to a gutsy performance from their bullpen, but it won’t take a lot of offense to get a W today at Great American Ballpark with Mahle behind the mound. The Cubs offense has improved a bit, but they’re still nothing to ride home about.
Astros (-130), 2 units: Rich Hill (7.25 ERA over 22.1 innings) is better than what he’s showing and Christian Javier (0.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 FIP over 20.2 innings) may not be this good, but I still like Houston in this spot. The Rays are in a funk and Houston looks like the team we saw at the start of the season. I’ll ride it until shown otherwise.
Twins -1.5 (+105), 1 unit: I thought Minnesota would find their bats and Danny Duffy would take a step back yesterday but that certainly didn’t happen. This is a better spot to get a run-line in on a Minnesota team due for some positive regression on offense facing the very hittable Brad Keller (9.00 ERA over 18 innings pitched). Jose Berrios (3.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 26.2 innings) has looked solid thus far, showing 0 signs of decreased velocity on his fastball and allowing very few homeruns (0.34 per 9 innings). I like this spot for a little Minnesota revenge and to take the series win at home.
Athletics first five -1.5 (+125), 1.5 units: It felt like if that game had a few more innings yesterday, Oakland would have got the win. That being said, the Orioles are a solid team and I don’t think they’ll be out of the playoff picture as the season wanes on. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmerman (5.22 ERA, 1.58 WHIP over 25.1 innings) is probably their most hittable starter and with Sean Manaea (2.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 28.2 innings) on the mound for Oakland, I like the Athletics’ momentum to leak into today’s game and give the home team an early lead by margin.
Angels -1.5 (+105), 1.5 units and Angels/Mariners over 8 (-115), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. The Angels are top 5 in the majors in a ton of offensive categories right now (and 1st in batting average, slugging percentage and hits per game) and I expect some positive regression from Dylan Bundy (4.20 ERA over 30 innings). The 28 year old is getting a bit over-utilized and he’s allowed a few too many homeruns thus far. The total bet kind of hedges the Angels run-line but I can easily see both happening. The Mariners’ Justus Sheffield (5.23 ERA over 22 innings) and the very average Seattle bullpen are nothing to fear for those white-hot LAA bats, nor will they stifle Angels’ superstar Mike Trout, who may be playing his best baseball to date.
The 147th run for the roses is here and it is going to be as exciting as ever. The weather looks great and the mint juleps will be flowing! What would make this wonderful event even more exciting is if we could win some coin! Just a fair warning, I am not a year round horse bettor, but I do pay attention and bet the big races with some of the others sprinkled in throughout the year. The big favorite in this race is (14) Essential Quality going off at 2-1. This thoroughbred is undefeated and a deserving favorite at that. The distance is this race at 1 and 1/4 mile or ten furlongs. This longer distance should not affect Essential Quality being that his sire is Tapit who produced a bunch of Belmont (longer distance) winners. The key thing that I see in this race is that the 2nd tier horses in this field are all pretty equal to each other. I really do not see anyone sticking out much except for maybe the Santa Anita derby winner (15) Rock Your World at 5-1 who is also unbeaten yet really still unchallenged up to this point. The interesting thing to me is that Bob Baffert only has one horse in this race at (8) Medina Spirit who has won or took 2nd place in all of his 5 races. He could be due for a big race or a bad one but his price at 15-1 sure looks tempting to me having such a good trainer and all. Rock your world, and Medinya Spirit are my two horses that I have keyed in on due to the price and upside. I do not want Essential quality to beat me so I am pressing him in the number 1 spot. I also like (9) Hot Rod Charlie some with (17) highly motivated as well as the (1) horse Known Agenda who drew the rail and has improved his Beyers in every race thus far. The rail could be good or bad this race so I will leave it at that. There are two relatively unknown horses with the (5) Sainthood and the (12) Helium that would make a massive payday so I sprinkled them in the exotics as well. My prediction in this race is the (15) Rock your world to sneak by (14) Essential quality for the win with Medina Spirit running 3rd to hit the show. Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, have fun and best of luck to everyone!
Total Ticket Spend: $403 (you could go half at $201.50)
Another great day of NBA betting as I hit all 3 picks yesterday. At 167-124, I highly doubt any records compare to yours truly in the association through 3 months (not so humble brag, but it’s true). Regardless, I’m happy to keep chugging along and knowing many of you are winning because of it makes my day. Let’s keep it rollin’!
Warriors/Rockets over 233 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty great setup for the Warriors; I just wish it wasn’t in the middle of a little road trip. If it wasn’t I may be taking their side at -8 tonight. Golden State visits New Orleans for a back-to-back in 2 days, fresh off a disappointing loss to the Timberwolves 2 nights ago in Minnesota. The lack of front court depth affects the Warriors all too often, and not having Kelly Oubre Jr., who I hope returns tonight, clearly affects their ability to score. If Oubre Jr. is not in the lineup, expect Curry to once again shoulder the offensive load for Golden State. Any player prop on his total points probably won’t be enough in that scenario (in other words, hammer it). Either way, many of these NBA teams will start to show clear motivational advantages because they actually have a shot at the playoffs. The Warriors currently sit in the 10th spot in the Western Conference and can’t afford to blow many more games. They’ll depend on their offense tonight as their defensive rankings (9th in defensive efficiency, 21st in points allowed) have slipped a little. The Rockets have shown an ability to produce points and keep pace with the NBA’s fastest teams, ranking 6th in tempo, right near Golden State who sits at 2nd. The lack of defensive prowess and speed of this game, combined with some truly elite scorers, should foster an easy over.
Pacers -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: I really wish Sabonis was playing and that the Pacers weren’t so banged up, but OKC isn’t healthy either. Dort and Gilgeous-Alexander will be sitting out this game and I trust Indiana, who’s sitting on the border of the playoffs at 9th in the Eastern Conference, to muster some good basketball here and cover this line. They’re plenty motivated and there’s a chance Jeremy Lamb returns tonight, which would surely be a nice boost. Indiana got waxed by Brooklyn Friday and I regret not betting on that, but OKC couldn’t be more different than the Nets. Ranking dead last in both point differential and spread differential according to WinnersandWhiners, it seems the Thunder could care less about ending the season on a high note. Bet Indiana.
Grizzlies -11 (-115), 2 units: The Grizzlies kindaaaaa sucked last night and they still beat Orlando by 17 points. This line is no where near where it should be. The Magic have a C-team playing right now and although there’s some motivation for these guys to prove themselves and earn more playing time, their talent cannot compare to a healthy Memphis team (or any real NBA team for that matter). The Grizzlies have a ton to play for as they vie for playoff positioning (if the postseason started today, they would earn the final spot in the Western Conference). Ja Morant was visibly upset by his performance last night. Expect the Grizzlies to win by much more than 11 in this contest.
Parlay- Pelicans win and Pelicans/T-Wolves over 238, 1 unit to win 2 units: I love to see the Timberwolves doing well. Early in the season I thought they could be a feisty team throughout the year and they’re proving how well they can play when everyone’s healthy. Rubio and Towns and Edwards are in-sync and finally getting to see D’Angelo Russell healthy has been a treat, as Minnesota has now won 5 of their last 6 games. They’re in a terrific spot here today at home since they’ll get an extremely rare 4 days off after the host the Pelicans tonight. At +3.5 underdogs, I’d probably favor the Timberwolves side and that might be a good way to hedge this parlay. The Pelicans are without Steven Adams, which I hate, but here’s the deal: New Orleans really needs to win this game to stay in the playoff race. Zion and Ball and Ingram are more than capable of leading their team to a victory tonight and we’ve seen what they can do when they’re focused and playing in-sync. Despite Minnesota’s recent success, they’re still one of the worst defenses in the league (28th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency). The Pelicans tempo has been steadily increasing throughout the season. They’ve been through a rough stretch recently against teams like San Antonio and LAC and Denver but a porous Minnesota defense, and a foe that’s feeling a little too confident, is a good matchup for New Orleans tonight. The Pelicans host Golden State in back to back games Monday so the time to win is now. Take one side of this bet or both for a parlay!
Wizards/Mavericks over 231.5 (-110), 2 units: I don’t want to step in front of either of these teams right now so I can’t take a side (Dallas is favored by 5.5), but I’d definitely lean the Wizards. What I will be bullish about is the over (are you sensing a theme in this article?). Washington has been absolutely electric on offense lately. Instead of giving you an average, let me show you how many points they’ve scored over the last 11 games: 122, 116, 143, 119, 129, 118, 119, 121, 117, 123, and 125. Okay now I’ll tell you the average– that’s 123 ppg over that span. Incredible, and consistent. Dallas is a mid-tier defense and while they don’t play tremendously fast like their opponent tonight (Washington ranks #1 in the NBA), the Mavericks are a top 10 team in offensive efficiency. Porzingis went down within 21 minutes of the Mavericks’ game against the Pistons 2 nights ago so I’m not sure if he’ll suit up. If he sits I like that more for the Wizards offense, as Porzingis absence would leave a big hole in their front court (cue Russel dunks x 5). I’d sprinkle a little money-line action on the Wizards if I were you, but I love the over here.
What a busy busy day of sports betting — baseball, basketball, UFC and the Derby, let’s go! Onto my Saturday picks in the major leagues:
Tigers win (+195), 1 unit: There’s inherent value here on the Tigers. As we predicted, the Yankees had their way with Detroit last night with Cole on the mound and a horrible rotation-plan for Detroit. One really good thing about Spencer Turnbull, the Tigers’ starter today, is he’s been elite at preventing homeruns his entire career. In 4 years and and 47 games pitched, he’s only allowed an average of 0.635 homeruns per 9 innings. Last year that average was down to 0.32, which is exceptionally good. A team like the Yankees, so reliant on big whacks and balls soaring beyond the fence, could be humbled after yesterday’s easy win. I like a sprinkle on Detroit to stun the Yankees in Brooklyn.
Marlins/Nats over 8.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I’ve been getting stymied by my total plays lately but again, I can’t help but make this an automatic over spot. Both of these ballclubs have found their bats recently and Paul Campbell (MIA- 8.22 ERA over 7.2 innings) and Patrick Corbin (WAS- 10.47 over 16.1 innings pitched) are extremely hittable. After a low-scoring pitching affair in game 1, look for more points in this one.
Twins -1.5 (+150), 1 unit: You may want to take a shot on Minnesota. The Twins need to keep winning and were happy to get a first game blowout over the surprising Royals last night. The Twins bats have woken up too, scoring 9 runs and 10 runs in their last two outings. According to TeamRankings, the Twins have the worst luck in MLB– guess who has the best luck? Kansas City. Danny Duffy (0.39 ERA over 23 innings) has looked elite thus far for Kansas City but maybe this is the game where his luck runs out. He’s allowed plenty of hits; they just don’t turn into runs. I’d bet on the Twins winning by margin at home and staying white hot behind the plate.
Red Sox -1.5 (-120), 1.5 units: The Rangers are below average against left-handed pitchers (.221 team average), which isn’t something I see when I research that metric very often, and Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS- 3.52 ERA over 23 innings) has held a solid command so far this year. Jordan Lyles (TEX- 6.75 ERA over 24 innings) has not. The Red Sox are the better team in every way, with considerably better bats, and they’re 9-2 on the road. This feels like a great setup for a win by margin.
Dodgers win (-125), 2 units: Two superb pitchers in Dustin May (LAD- 2.53 ERA over 21 innings) and Brandon Woodruff (MIL- 1.55 ERA over 29 innings) face off tonight in Milwaukee. The Dodgers have seen better days and this game sets up well for the Brewers, but that’s exactly why I like LAD. The Dodgers can’t win this series but they could at least even it up and I love what Dustin May brings to the table. Woodruff has been exceptional but May’s velocity is elite, and it’s a young-gun-arm we just don’t see very often anymore. Three losses in a row just feels like too much to a mid-tier Brewers team and the Dodgers’ bats have to wake up sooner and later. I’ll take LAD.
Other Leans: Diamondbacks (-180), Giants/Padres under 7 (EVEN)
Not gonna lie, I was LIVID about that Warriors total not hitting last night. They were shooting around 50% from the field all night, scored 107 with 5 minutes left, and somehow couldn’t muster over 114 points. Killing me. That was one of my favorite bets this week so, I was a tad disappointed. Moving on, the 57% win rate still reigns and we head into a nice little Friday night lineup in the association. Onto my picks:
76ers -9 (110), 2 units: This is not a fair matchup. Even with the great coaching and improvement we’ve seen from Atlanta, the value is on Philadelphia and quite frankly, this line is probably too small. For perhaps the first time all year, the 76ers are completely healthy, while the laundry list of injuries for Atlanta is long and onerous. The Hawks need to keep winning to stay in the playoff race, sure, but the 76ers also need to keep winning to secure the #2 seed in the East. The Bucks suffered a bad loss to Houston last night, but Milwaukee has been steadily creeping up on the 76ers spot throughout late April. Embiid and one other star would be too much for this Hawks’ lineup– all the stars and a healthy roster should mean a blowout. No more leaning on plays like this– I’m on Philly for 2 units.
Wizards -6.5 (-110), 2 units: An exceptional LAL defense couldn’t stop the Wizards, so you damn sure better believe that the Cavaliers (like we saw a few games ago) won’t stop them either. The Wizards last game against the Lakers really impressed me. Washington was at home, sure, but Anthony Davis and the Lakers were no doubt motivated to start accumulating wins and climb in the West standings, but they could not overcome or deny this streaking Wizards unit. Beal had 27 points, Westbrook had yet another triple-double (how he’s able to rebound at his size is absolutely astounding), and it felt like the Wizards sort of coasted to that win. Every time Davis and the Lakers didn’t relent, Washington overcame and added on to their lead. The Washington Wizards are playing some motivated basketball right now as they make a push for the playoffs and if I were other teams in the East, I wouldn’t want them to get there. With virtually no injuries and a newfound chemistry between Beal and Westbrook, Washington could be a team to contend with as long as they can bring at least a modicum of defense. The Wizards have moved up to #20 overall in defensive efficiency, a stark improvement, and recently they’ve become a top 10 ATS team, too (covering 54.8% of the time on the season). The Cavaliers are absolutely obliterated by injuries right now and with the spirit Washington is bringing, I don’t think they stand a chance. I’m on the Wiz-kids to cover.
Suns -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a great spot for the Suns to really put the league on notice. Coming off two great wins against the Knicks and Clippers, Phoenix is at home to host the Western Conference’s first place team in the Utah Jazz. Just because Donovan Mitchell and Conley are out won’t mean that the Jazz will lay down tonight. Pride and playoff positioning are more than enough for motivation, but the Suns are playing at a different level right now and I love them to cover at home. A line of -4.5 is tricky– it means if you favor that side, they have to cover by a solid two possessions. Two elite teams like this, battling it out all game, often creates a one-possession situation in the 4th, but I think the Suns can control and maintain a lead throughout this contest. The Suns are so extremely well balanced, I don’t have to tell you that by now, and when Chris Paul and Devin Booker and in-sync they’re really difficult to stop. Phoenix has been one of the ATS leaders all season and while the Jazz are one of the top teams too, they’re only a mid-tier 50% ATS on the road. The Suns? They cover 63.6% at home– which is good for top 3 in the association. Utah has to turn around and travel back home to face Toronto tomorrow night; the Suns get a rest day before traveling to face one of the worst teams in basketball in OKC. Something special is brewing in Phoenix and I expect the Suns to step up and take advantage of an opportunity to secure that #1 spot. Go Suns!
The month of May is nearly upon us and that means summer is around the corner. A decent day with some close calls yesterday landed us at 2-2 after a 4-0 Wednesday. Let’s get some more wins today. Happy Friday, people!
Cardinals/Pirates under 8 (-115), 2 units: This number is getting even more juiced up now but it’s the right side and even if you have to pay a little more, the right side is worth the value. Two commanding pitchers take the mound today in John Gant (2.25 over 20 innings) and JT Brubaker (2.01 ERA over 22 innings). Gant just came off a really impressive performance against the Reds, holding one of MLB’s premiere offenses scoreless through 6 innings, while Brubaker had a solid performance last time out against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings. My lean here would be Pittsburgh, just because of the spot after a loss at home, and I trust their offense a little more. But the truth is neither of these teams boast bats that can take over a game. It’ll be a windy, chillier day in Western Pennsylvania and this feels like, at most, a 4-2 type of situation. Under all day for me.
Yankees first five -2 (+120), 1 unit: This is the best value bet I can find on the Yankees side and I’m going to ride with it. I really wanted to bet on Detroit for the value we’re getting against Gerrit Cole, but that feels like a force-feed. For all the woes the Yanks have been through thus far and for all the reasons we have to constantly fade them, this game sets up perfectly for the Bronx bombers. Tarik Skubal takes the mound for the Tigers and I’m sure the NYY bats are salivating at the opportunity to oppose him. Disregarding one clean 3 inning game against a bad offense, Skubal has allowed at least 2 runs in every brief start he’s made thus far (he averages 3.6 innings per game). And what’s even worse for Detroit’s chances today, Skubal loves to allow homeruns. Through 5 games, Skubal is permitting 2.37 homers per 9 innings. The Yankees rank among the worst teams in baseball in many offensive categories– batting average (24th), hits per game (24th), runs per game (26th), etc. Where the Yankees thrive is hitting beyond the fence, where they currently rank 6th overall in MLB. Aaron Judge has some vague injury he’s working through but beat reporters tell us he’s playing today. Gerrit Cole (1.71 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 31.2 innings) remains the one bright spot in the Yankees rotation, pitching long into games and holding command with ease. Yankees by 2.5 or 3.5 or even 4.5 might be worth a look here, as well as the over or individual player props, but I’ll take the first 5 for some early slugs and a few homers while Cole keeps flexing. If something else happens I wouldn’t be surprised, that’s how MLB is these days, but this is a perfect setup for NYY fireworks. Detroit’s bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, too.
Reds win (-121), 1.5 units: I love Cincinnati in this spot and as you may know, I love fading Arrieta even more. The Reds are giving Wade Miley (2.45 ERA over 22 innings) the nod today. Miley has been on the wrong end of some streaky offenses recently in the Indians and Cardinals but he had a sensational first two starts, allowing only 4 hits and 0 runs in 11 innings. The last two games looked different; Miley allowed 10 hits and 6 runs over 11 innings. He’ll look for some positive regression today and I expect him to get it against a Cubs team that lives and dies on homeruns. In 2021, Miley is only allowing 0.82 homers per 9 innings. Chicago is coming off a rare blitzkrieg of offense last night against the Braves, but that was more about an Atlanta-let-down than it was a superb Cubs offense if you ask me. Jake Arrieta (2.57 over 28 innings) has looked pretty good thus far but I never get too excited about what I see from him. He’s just too sporadic. The Reds are one of the top offenses in MLB and they’re coming off a nice series win against LAD. Back home after a rare rest day with a better offense and a pitcher I’d much rather back, I’ll take the Reds to secure the first win of the series.
Rays win (+105), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on Ryan Yarbrough (4.28 ERA over 27 innings) and the Rays here. Yarbrough seems to have found his groove recently, allowing only 5 hits and 1 run over 10.2 innings in his last two games. I’m a little hesitant about him starting, since Yarbrough seems to prefer the fill-in role early in the ballgame, but he’s looked excellent in his last 2 games at the mound. The Astros are a team I like to fade in spots like this, where they’re favored really only by name, not by their actual performance this year. Lance McCullers Jr. (4.58 ERA over 19.2 innings) is the thrower elect for Houston and he’s heading in the opposite direction of Yarbrough, recently permitting 7 hits and 8 runs in just 9.2 innings in his last 2 games. The Rays are a mid-tier offense due for some positive regression, and they can explode if given the right pitcher. I could see them surprising Houston and taking an early lead today. The value is on Tampa Bay.
We have a great show for you today! Marco D’Angelo from Wagertalk.com and The Pony Pundits is back to discuss the 147th run for the roses! We start by getting right into the big race discussing the field. Why could this race be such a big money maker? Is Essential Quality a deserving favorite? Who are the horses that we are throwing out? Which horses could hit the board and which horses could give us an upset special? Then, Marco discusses his strategy in betting this race in looking to hit that big $9000+ payout that he hit just a few years back. Finally, Kiev discusses UFC on ESPN 23 – Reyes vs Prochazka for this huge weekend of sports!
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