The Devils are chasing their fourth win in six games, one of those wins being against the Boston Bruins 1-0 on Sunday. The Devils were able to secure this win as Mackenzie Blackwood was able to defend all 40 shots taken on him. Offensively the Devils have not been up to par. They have only averaged 2.39 goals per game, and they were lucky enough to seal the win against the Bruins with one goal on only 29 shots.
The big story here is Brad Marchand and Brandon Carlo have been cleared from Covid protocol, and will start tonight against the Devils. Boston has really struggled with the absence of Marchand, they have only be able to put up 2.61 goals per game. Marchand was definitely missed by the Bruins, and they will love to see him here tonight. The Bruins defense has been the backbone, only giving up 2.29 goals per game. The addition of defenseman Brandon Carlo will boost the defensive efforts even more.
With New Jersey winning 1-0 on the road Sunday, it will play into our zig zag effect. Boston is one of the best teams in the league at home. After being shutout to the Devils two nights ago, there is no way this will happen again. The Bruins averaged 3.39 goals at home, and with Marchand and Carlo back in the lineup, it should be a clear path for the Bruins to get a revenge win.
This game could be one of those turn off the TV and do laundry games if it gets out of hand. The Pac 12 has been playing much better than not only their seedings, but their efficiency statistics on the Kenpoms of the world. My questions are, at what point does it stop (if it does) and at what point do we trust the top seeds in this tournament? I think that we need to look at the full body of work from both of these teams. First, during the regular season, UCLA looked like an NIT type team and barley got into the tournament while Michigan has been a consistent top 6 team over the last few months. During the tournament, Michigan was able to take out very difficult LSU and Florida State teams to get this far while UCLA was fortunate to face some of the worst competition in this tournament in Michigan State, BYU and Abilene Christian before facing an Alabama team who went 7-28 from 3 point land, and 11-25 in free throws. Alabama was still able to get to overtime with numbers like that. Listen, I am not saying that UCLA is a bad team and I actually think that they have improved here, but at some point, the luck has to end here and I think that Michigan is that team that can slow pace with them, and cause some serious issues down low with their great ball rotation and overall height. Michigan ranks 7th and 8th in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency while UCLA ranks 11th and 50th respectively. Michigan ranks 11th in 3 point percentage at 38.2 while UCLA ranks 138th in defending the 3. I think that this could be the spot that UCLA finally cools off. Laying the points.
Well that was a rather putrid day for me yesterday. I had the right side with Oregon State but picked ’em in the wrong half. Baylor scored 15 points in the first 4 minutes, which basically destroyed my chances at a full game under right there. Ah well. I feel much better about today’s Elite 8 games– let’s get it!
Gonzaga -8.5 (-110), 2 units: Northwest takes on Southwest Tuesday in the first contest of the Elite 8 and there are 2 questions that define this game: 1) Can USC slow down arguably one of the best college basketball offenses of all time? 2) Can USC win the battle at the rim? If USC can step up and do well in either of those areas, they have a good chance at covering this line. Having said that, I think this line is still too small. At this point in the tournament, books have to respect all the teams who have gotten this far and what they’ve done to get there, so I get it. USC absolutely deserves the respect, but it doesn’t mean the line is right. Let’s look at what USC has done in the postseason and historically this year. Recently the Trojans look great– Haslametrics has USC ranked 21st in positive momentum and 6th overall in the country. They’ve also flexed their defensive-muscles big time in the tournament. The Trojans are only allowing 58 ppg in 3 games and they’re forcing very competent offenses into errors and uncomfortable shots. They slow down the game, annoy their opponent, and their hyper-efficient offense puts added pressure on teams to score. They’re also full of offensive talent. The Mobley brothers (Evan Mobley has to be considered one of the better big men in the country now) loom large at the rim, and 3 of USC’s guards have scored over 20 points in tournament play. It’s safe to say that USC should easily be the toughest test Gonzaga has had to face all year. And KenPom agrees. According to KenPom’s ratings, Gonzaga is 1st all time in 2 point offense and USC is 1st all time in 2 point defense, so it’ll be strength vs. strength on Tuesday night.
At this point I’m sure you’re thinking, “Well damn, Chris, aren’t you saying this is going to be a close game? You have to side with USC to cover then, right?” I hear you, but I can’t do that. As good as USC is, Gonzaga has only 1 win this entire season that wasn’t by double-digit margin. 1. They’re the consensus #1 team on offense and defense on Haslametrics. They’re #1 overall and #1 on offense according to KenPom (and 7th on defense, not exactly a weakness). And even though it doesn’t even make sense watching them sometimes, they always seem to find a way to out-think, out-play, and out-pace their opponents. USC should try to slow this game down, why wouldn’t they, but all plans go to shit when Gonzaga surges and scores 8-12 points in a row. And they do it very often. Look at any one of the ESPN summaries from a Gonzaga game this year and you’ll see drastic game-flow disparity at some point. Why? Because Gonzaga hangs around, hangs around, hangs around, and then pounces like a mountain lion. That’s what forces teams into mistakes and forces teams to play outside their comfort zone, and that’s where the Bulldogs really gain margin with their sharp and disciplined defense. USC, for all their accomplishments, has had bad moments in big games. They lost to Colorado 3 times, twice in ugly double-digit fashion and once in the Pac-12 tournament. They also lost to Utah and Oregon State and Arizona in the regular season, 3 of the more prominent offensive teams in the Pac-12. Gonzaga will by far be the most exceptional offense they’ve faced. I also think that Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga’s star guard who’s only reached double-digits once so far in the tournament, is due for some positive regression tonight. If the Mosley brothers cause problems, Gonzaga has dependable small-ball talent to overcome it.
There’s a ton of sentiment out there in the Twitter-verse and beyond at why USC is the team that could dethrone Gonzaga. Watch out for this line to fall even more and if it does, I know I’ll be investing more in this game. After all, I’m siding with the most consistent and talented juggernaut in the country.
Michigan 1st half -4 (-110), 2 units: After that small book I wrote above, I’ll spend less time on this one and get right to the point. The Wolverines have outplayed their opponents by an average margin of 10 points in the first halves of their tournament games so far. Don’t get me wrong– UCLA is built to stay within distance against their opponents. They don’t make mistakes, they move at a haunting but effectively slow tempo that throws opponents off, and they shoot the ball very well. Unfortunately, they just haven’t faced a team like Michigan this year. The Wolverines are bigger, stronger, more talented at the rim and as jump-shooters, and also play at a methodical pace. That won’t be effected or thrown off by what the Bruins try to do to other teams. Expect Hunter Dickinson and his wrecking-ball crew to hit the paint hard and deliberate throughout the first half of this contest. Michigan, like Gonzaga, likes to out-perform their opponents from the onset to throw off the other team’s game-plan. UCLA, although talented and well-coached, will not be ready for this level of competition. Remember, this is a team who finished 4th in the Pac-12 and had to play in a “First Four” contest just to make the tournament. Despite the Pac-12’s performance so far in postseason play, there’s still a real difference between Michigan and most of these other teams. I like the Wolverines to cover this full game but I favor the first half even more.
Well there’s a ton of games in the NBA today and for us, that means a ton of opportunity! I went 15-9 in NBA picks last week (63%) and I’m 107-77 (58%) overall in NBA picks since February 1. That’s a good sample size and I hope you’ve all benefited from it. Let’s tackle a big Monday in the association.
Pacers -5 (-105), 1 unit: The Pacers aren’t known for creating much margin between them and their opponents, even when winning, so I don’t love this number. Though I do feel like I have to take it because of the spot and situation-advantage for Indiana. Their clunker against Milwaukee aside, the Pacers have had some really good wins recently. They beat Detroit, punked Dallas, and beat up on the Heat twice at Miami. Because of that, they’re now grouped with the best teams in the NBA at #14 in point differential. They’re also among the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, ranked just shy of the top 10 at #11. The Wizards, on the other hand, are not feeling the same good vibes. Washington most recently won against the lowly Pistons but it came at a price– Bradley Beal left the game early with a hip injury. His chances of playing don’t look great tonight. Overall, with or without Beal, the Wizards haven’t look good since the All-Star break. Now losers of 8 of their last 10 games, Washington will have to turn around and host Charlotte at home tomorrow night, too. The Pacers are balanced and good with or without the ball in their hands. Against a Washington team that’s limping into tonight, I like Indiana’s chances more than usual. I’ll take a small shot on the Pacers to cover.
Pelicans/Celtics over 229 (-110), 2 units and Lean, Pelican win (+120): One of the prevailing issues of the Boston Celtics is one of the most obvious– they’re small. Injuries to Tristan Thompson and Semi Ojeleye haven’t helped, but even when fully healthy the Celtics are never sharks at the rim. That’s an issue when you run into the New Orleans Pelicans. In case you’ve been under a rock, you’ve seen Zion Williamson’s talents on full display this season. The 2nd year star is quickly becoming one of the NBA’s premiere players to watch. Veteran Steven Adams and Zion are tough to stop when the opposition doesn’t have front court size or exceptional talent. Because of that, I think the Pelicans will be able to push the pace and assert themselves down low throughout his game. Increasing in tempo steadily since the beginning of the season, New Orleans is now right in the middle of the NBA in pace rating at 18th (Hollinger Stats, ESPN). Expect that level to keep climbing tonight. Lately Boston hasn’t matched well against any offenses, though. Their defensive efficiency rating has now dropped to 21st overall and they allow over 111 ppg. And look at their past 10 games. Teams not named the Nets are routinely dropping over 115 points on the Celtics. The Pelicans can certainly score 120+ and since Boston is the favorite this game should at least be close. I’ll hammer the over. I also lean a money-line win on New Orleans because of the big mismatch at the center and forward positions.
Timberwolves/Nets over 239.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well, hopefully this wager is obvious. Only the Wizards and Kings are worse than the Timberwolves at points allowed per game. I mean, the Rockets dropped 129 points on Minnesota 2 days ago. That’s really bad. Brooklyn isn’t much better at #26 overall in points allowed. Kevin Durant isn’t ready just yet, but Kyrie and Harden and the other key offensive contributors are healthy and after 3 days of rest, Brooklyn gets to play at the Barclays center for their next 3 games. That’s a sure-fire-recipe for offensive success tonight and it’s hard to imagine this total staying below 240 points. Books are shy to post totals larger than 240 but it’s not that momentous in today’s NBA, especially not with the soft defenses and talented shooters that most teams are equipped with. I’ll take advantage.
Grizzlies -8 (-105), 2 units: Well I can’t help but pull the trigger on this one. The dark, abysmal, ice cold Rockets finally got a win 2 nights ago! Actually they get off the schneid recently against the Raptors but still, any win is a big win for Houston at this point. A nice game from Kevin Porter Jr. and 12 assists from John Wall were too much for Minnesota and their horrendous defense. Of course the Rockets also shot 54.3% from the field and a crazy 46.2% from beyond the arc. Needless to say, that won’t repeat Monday. The up and down Grizzlies don’t always live up to their potential but they’ll feel like a big difference in class tonight for Houston. Memphis quietly has one of the more stifling defenses in the NBA and despite a record that’s teetering on missing the playoffs, it’s the biggest reason why Memphis should be taken seriously. They’re mid-tier in points allowed the game but in Hollinger’s adjusted team ratings, they own the 7th overall defense. The Grizzlies dropped their last 2 games against Utah, which is pretty typical. Like the Knicks and Pacers and many mid-tier teams, Memphis can’t hang with the NBA’s elite but they can beat up on bad opponents. I’m sure Houston feels good about themselves heading into tonight but an angry Memphis team will out-perform the Rockets in every facet of the game. And they need to. In 2 nights they get another shot at the Jazz and they can’t afford to rack up too many losses at this point in the season. The Grizzlies are 57% ATS after a loss and 57% ATS on the road. Bet Memphis to cover.
Warriors +1 (-110) if Curry Plays, 1.5 units: Stephen Curry was just upgraded to questionable, which I’m hoping means he’ll play, but I wouldn’t bet this if he’s a late-scratch. Wait until you hear more absolute information about this game. If he does play, the Warriors are a better team than the Bulls, especially at home. I’ve been waiting for opportunities to pounce on this point, but Chicago is no better or has no potential more than any other mid-tier, young team that’s too reliant on one player. And unfortunately that player is Zach LaVine. I like LaVine; he seems like a good kid and he’s a great athlete. But I’m not sure how great of a leader he is and I know he’s not a pure shooter. He reminds me of Ben Simmons (though I think Simmons is a considerably more talented facilitator). He’s big, explosive, and he can really make an impact in a lot of different ways. As a rebounder, on defense, etc., he’s definitely a value-add. I just don’t think he’s built to lead a team into the playoffs. Do you know who is? Steph Curry. Curry adds an element of offensive talent that’s not limited to just his shooting. He’s a constant distraction for the opponent’s defense, a great leader on and off the court, and he’s a better passer than pundits give him credit for. The Warriors also boast a top 10 defensive efficiency rating on Hollinger’s metrics and I think they’re a horrible match-up for a rhythm dependent team like Chicago. Golden State has also lost 4 in a row and this is a prime-spot back at home, where they’re 13-9 straight up and 12-10 ATS. Fingers crossed for Curry!
This is going to be a great game just like the rest of them. The spread is large as we all can see, but for me, I think we might be able to find a little value here in the derivative Market. Arkansas has had a relatively easy path to the elite 8. They struggled against Texas Tech and barely got by Oral Roberts. Even Colgate was leading this team by about 14 points before their best player went out in the first half. A big trend for me here is that according to Kyle Hunter, Arkansas is only 2-7 ATS during the first half in their last nine games. For some reason, this Razobacks team hasn’t been starting out very well at all. Baylor usually is a good first half team, but they struggled vs Villanova and were in for some trouble until 3/4 of the way through that game. Being that they had to face that adversity, I think that Baylor could come back strong the first half of this game and get some big points. Both teams play fast so I think that margin could be expected here. Gonna lay the 4 with the Bears.
A few surprises and unexpected victors have us at 17-14 in March Madness picks thus far, which is pretty good considering all the volatility we’ve seen. I think it all kind of makes sense for me, though. In this strange COVID year, when you don’t have fans packing arenas, there’s just less pressure. This is really the only time we’ve seen these kids play under intense pressure, and now we’re getting a good idea of who can hang. It’s made for great entertainment, that’s for sure. On that note, the Elite 8 is here and the road to the championship is in plain view. Hear are my picks for today and tomorrow!
Oregon State 1st half only +4 (-105), 1.5 units: What the Oregon State Beavers have done so far in this tournament is truly remarkable. Flexing a defense that we haven’t seen during the regular season and shooting the ball extremely well, the Beavers have overcome Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyola-Chicago; three of the toughest opponents that any team has had to contend with in the first 3 rounds. What they’ve done from the 3-point line might be the most shocking. Oregon State is holding tournament opponents to only 22% from beyond the arc. On their side, they’re shooting the long ball at a rate of 39%– not too shabby. I don’t care who you’re facing, when you’re out-shooting your opponents by that much disparity from beyond the arc, you’ll have a really hard time losing. But their efforts go beyond that, too. The Beavers have held their opponents, who all have exceptional offenses, to only 61 ppg. I think it helps that they run at one of the slowest paces in the country, a comparatively similar trait to Houston which we’ll discuss, and I think that can really throw off fluid offenses who depend on rhythm shooting. In that way, they make for a good match against Houston. The Cougars, like Oregon State, run their offense at a molasses-like tempo and usually really frustrate their foes in the process. Interestingly, Loyola-Chicago and Tennessee function the same way and we saw that result of those games against the 12th seeded Beavers. Houston has out-lasted their opponents in similar fashion: a pestering defense and great shooting. Though I must say I’m a little less impressed by their opponents. Their AAC title win over Memphis was great, but the reality is the Tigers weren’t good enough throughout the season to make the NCAA Tournament. In the postseason, the Cougars defeated Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse. All solid teams, but not nearly the level of opponent that Oregon State has seen. The Beavers have a ton of momentum right now, which has only gained stream in these high-pressure games, and I see that carrying them to a first half cover. I can see Houston pulling away in the second half, they really do have an elite defense, but Oregon State is good enough to keep pace. No more resistance from me– I’ll take the Beavers early.
Arkansas/Baylor under 148.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be a fantastic game, despite the 8 point line favoring the Bears. Two of the most consistent teams in the nation meet late Monday night and I think it’s the defenses that flex the most. Let’s look at the pure numbers. Baylor has allowed only 59.6 ppg to their opponents and in those three tournament games, the totals have fell at an average of 128.6 ppg. Arkansas’ numbers are a little higher but still below average and support our case for the under here. The Razorbacks have allowed 68 ppg and their tournament games have an average total of 143 ppg. Arkansas is built around their defense, and despite the fact that they allowed more points overall thus far, every team they’ve faced was built on offensive prowess. I like the pace-war to favor the under here, too. Baylor isn’t Houston, they’re below-average in tempo but they don’t milk the clock on every possession, but they’re considerably more methodical than Arkansas. The Razorbacks, for their struggles at times on offense, love to push the ball and pour on points when given the chance. KenPom ranks them 17th in tempo for that reason. Unless its Gonzaga, who don’t seem to abide by any universal rules, I also love taking unders in the postseason when the pressure starts to mount. This game will be at the grandest environment at Lucas Oil stadium and the momentous nature and implications of every shot will be felt Monday night. Both of these teams have shot really well so far, each shooting well over 40%, so I can only project and expect negative regression in this contest. Bet the under.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev goes solo today to break down some of the early lines for the elite 8. First, we recap the sweet 16 games. What went wrong and what went right? Why were the line moves so wrong last weekend? Next, Kiev touches on the elite 8 games and the initial line moves with a FREE PLAY for us for one of tonight’s games! Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
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Can the run continue? The Oregon State Beavers are on pace to become the first #12 seed in the Final Four. Let’s talk about this Beavers offense first. They have made a whopping 50 three-pointers, and have been able to shoot 41.7% from behind the arc. Ethan Thompson has carried the load for this Oregon State offense. Last outing against Loyola Chicago, Thompson scored 22 points. Defensively, Oregon State is playing so much better than they did in the regular season. The Beavers have limited teams in the tournament to 20.5% from behind the arc. The team even set a record for 11 total blocks in a NCAA Tournament game. The defense is on another level right now.
The AAC player of the Year Quentin Grimes has other plans. Houston is backed by their tenacious defense. Houston has limited teams to shooting 28% from the field, and 21.2% from behind the arc. These numbers play into how the Cougars crash the boards. Houston has out rebounded opponents 117-84 in the tournament. They also have edged opponents 43-22 on the offensive rebounding, which led to 40 second chance points. Houston is ranked 2nd in the NCAA in defensive efficiency.
Oh man, The Oregon State Beavers, winners of their last 6 games, how do you go against a team on this much fire? Well… here is how. Houston is the best team this Beavers team will have faced all year. They beat a Tennessee team without John Fulkerson, an Oklahoma State team who really only has Cade Cunnigham, and finally a Missouri Valley Conference team who’s run had to end eventually just like Oregon States will. Houston’s ability to shutdown opponents defensively, and rebound any ball that is shot, is going to completely eliminate the Beavers. The Cougars will continue their offensive strides from behind the arc, put up ridiculous second chance numbers, and Quentin Grimes will lead Houston to the Final Four.
Back off a nice break (had the boys over yesterday and life felt NORMAL, which was amazing) from NBA action, it’s a Sun-daze over here and I can’t wait to just watch sports today. Just like my Sweet 16 article, I apologize for the brevity of this post but it’s a wildly busy day here at the house. Here are my picks for today’s NBA slate:
Raptors win (+105), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on Toronto here. Traveling to Florida is always a tough spot for Portland and the Raptors, although we faded them a few nights ago and won, are a much better team when healthy. Their defense could give Damian Lillard issues tonight and if Portland is slowed down on offense, they’ll be in trouble. Give me the Raptors for a little + money!
Nuggets -4.5 (-110), 2 units: I don’t love how many players are either questionable or out for Denver tonight, which just makes their bench a little more shallow, but Atlanta isn’t ideally healthy either. The Nuggets are in a great spot after that big and monkey-on-back-removing win over the Pelicans two nights ago. Denver hosts Philadelphia in two nights but both today’s game and that game are at home. Atlanta is on an absolutely horrific road trip right now and Denver smack dab in the middle doesn’t help. I’m all over the Nuggets.
Magic/Lakers under 208 (-110), 2 units: The Magic can’t score against bad defenses– I’m not sure they’ll get to 95 points against the Lakers. Even without Lebron and AD, the Lakers play well-disciplined defensive basketball at a methodical pace. That hasn’t changed. The Magic are very injured, recently lost 2 key offensive contributors, and only average 104.6 ppg, which is 2nd last in the association. I love this under play.
Creighton on offense is explosive. They thrive on getting points from behind the perimeter. Creighton shoots 43.9% of its shots from behind the arc. Zegarowski is Creighton’s leading scorer with 15.7 points a game. With Creighton’s 14th ranked offense in the country, they will need to find ways to slow Gonzaga on the defensive end.
When you try to look for a flaw in this Gonzaga team, you find yourself searching for awhile. If anything it is their defense. The 28-0 Bulldogs are scoring 92.1 points per game, while giving up 63.0. Gonzaga is ranked top 20 in defensive rebounds. And everyone on this starting 5 can shoot.
This game is not going to be close. Gonzaga can score, and score, and score. They love to run in transition, and that is something Creighton can’t guard. Creighton is bad in the transition. Creighton is ranked 259th in offensive rebounds. Gonzaga is going to grab boards, run, and score.
