Overall a winning week in MLB as we continue to try and find value every day. Keep in mind– there’s a ton of “pro bettors” out there who love giving out mega-favorites and calling themselves handicappers. True professionals look for value and only give out ATS plays that are advantageous for you and your bankroll. That’s why you see so many + money bets in my write-ups. Even if they don’t always win, when they do hit it’s exponentially better for your finances since you’re risking less and winning more than you would on a big favorite. Sticking with that approach, here are 6 plays (3 for + money) for your Monday slate!
Reds win (-140), 1.5 units: We’re getting a reduced price on Tyler Mahle (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.82 FIP over 30.2 innings) and the Reds and I’ll jump on the opportunity. Cincinnati is coming off a loss to Cleveland while the Pirates edged the Cubs last night at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh returns home with a 5-7 record at PNC Park and hopes that they can stay off the schneid for awhile. Last night’s win cracked a 3 game losing streak. The Reds sit right above the Pirates in 4th place in the stacked NL Central. Pittsburgh starts young gun Mitch Keller (6.29 ERA, 1.68 WHIP over 24.1 innings) today, who’s showed mixed results in 5 games. Allowing plenty of hits and runs in his first 4 outings, Keller had a great showing last time out against the Padres, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings for the win. Mahle may be getting a reduced number because he was blasted last time out, giving up 9 hits and 6 runs in just 5 innings. Before that embarrassing start Mahle was sensational, holding hitters to only 3 runs and 10 hits over his first 4 games. I expect us to see that Mahle today. Pittsburgh has played well in spurts but they’re still ranked at or near the bottom in a ton of offensive categories, while the Reds are one of the best scoring and hitting lineups in baseball. I trust the Cincinnati bats and Mahle to turn in a good performance and get the win.
Orioles first 5 (+110), 1 unit and Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-115), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. We saw what the Orioles can do against lefties and the stats speak to it: Baltimore hits, scores more runs, and has a considerably higher batting average (.272) against southpaws. The Red Sox start Martin Perez (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 28.2 innings) today, who’s looked okay but certainly hittable, allowing 20 hits and 11 runs in his last 4 starts. The 30 year old Perez has done a good job limiting hard contact so far, allowing only 0.31 HR/9 innings, but good offensive teams find a way to get on base against him. The Orioles are not an elite offensive team just yet but against a leftie, at Camden Yards in mild temperatures and down 0-3 in this series, I expect Baltimore’s bats to be motivated and aggressive. The home team starts Jorge Lopez (6.49 ERA, 1.37 WHIP over 26.1 innings) Monday, who’s also been very hittable. He’s been trending in a good direction though, allowing only 7 hits and 3 runs in his last 2 games on the mound. There’s value on Baltimore here, at least early, and I’m sure both teams will find enough juice to push this game over. Neither starting pitcher is elite and the bullpens are tired.
Rockies win (+150), 1 unit and Padres/Rockies over 10 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets, although it might make a good parlay, too. If we knew Dinelson Lamet (0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP over 4 innings) was completely healthy and ready to rock that electric right arm of his, this probably wouldn’t be a fair contest. But know that we do not. The 6’3″ 28 year old has dynamic, powerful throwing ability and if/when he’s 100%, he’ll add to an already heavy list of elite starting pitchers for San Diego. Lamet has been kept on a pitch count so far, only accounting for 2 innings in each of his 2 games this season, but the results were solid. After suffering a UCL sprain last year and already with a history of elbow injuries, it’s unclear how much usage he’ll get today. That being said, the other issue he’ll have Monday is the issue a lot of starters face when they travel to Denver– Coors field is simply a different animal. The Rockies are 10-8 straight up and averaging 5.9 runs per game at home. Last time at Coors they earned an inspired series win against the NL West leading Giants, although they just lost 3 games in a row at St. Louis. Colorado starts Anthony Senzatela (5.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 29.2 innings) today, another young gun that has shown promise in spots, but he’s allowed way too many homeruns this year (1.52/9 innings) and his LOB percentage is down to 65.9%. He’ll have to maintain better command today if the Rockies have a shot in this one. He’s certainly capable of it. Based on the forecast today it’s unlikely this game will even happen (looks to be snowy/rainy and cold). If/when it does, there’s value on Colorado and I love the over.
Parlay- Giants win and Rangers/Giants under 7.5 (-115), 1 unit to win 2.16 units: Okay here’s a parlay for you. Alex Wood (1.96 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) has been sensational so far for the Giants, giving up only 18 base runners in 23 innings pitched. He experienced a little negative regression at Coors Field in his last start but who doesn’t? Even the best fall in the Mile High City. San Francisco has seen a burgeoning of offense recently but I don’t think this will be one of those games. Texas has been feisty lately too, winning 5 of their last 6 ballgames. Today’s they’ll send Kyle Gibson (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 41.1 innings) to the mound. The 33 year old, 9 year starter has been used a ton this young season and he’s shown exceptional command. Except for an ugly showing in his first game at Kansas City, Gibson has averaged 6.8 innings per start and averaged only 1 one earned run per game. It won’t be easy for either of these offenses to get on base and points should be scarce. The Giants are 12-4 at Oracle Park and this feels like a low-scoring pitcher’s duel that we can all capitalize on for + money. Let’s hit the parlay!
What a week it’s been! We went 3-1 yesterday, which makes us 11-3 the last three days and 17-9 overall this week. 327 picks in, we’re now over 57% and cruising into the end of the season. Let’s wrap up this week in strong fashion, shall we?
Heat/Celtics under 222.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be a really contentious game with a real postseason feel. The Celtics would love nothing more than to dethrone the Heat from the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference. As you probably know by now, there’s a huge difference between being the 7th and 6th seed. The 7th seed has to participate in the “play-in tournament,” which is a quick chance to be eliminated from the playoffs before they even start. The 6th seeds and better don’t face that tribulation. This is the first of a doubleheader between these teams at the TD Garden Center. Both the Celtics and the Heat come into Sunday playing really well; Boston and Miami are both 12-7 since the start of April. Lately the Celtics have been a part of some high scoring games but overall, they’ve stepped up on the defensive end of the floor. The Heat continue to win games by effective, cerebral team offense and stellar defense. Boston is ranked 11th in points allowed per game, while Miami is 4th. Boston is in the lower half of the league at 17th overall in pace while the Heat are 28th– good for one of the slowest tempos in the association. In a doubleheader this significant, on national TV and with defenses as good as these teams have, I have to trigger an under play here. I have this game closer to 214.5, so I’ll gladly jump all over this opportunity. Prayers up for no overtime!
Knicks/Clippers under 214.5 (-110), 1 unit and Knicks +7.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Knicks have been through a gauntlet the past week. We knew how tough it would be– road games against Memphis, Denver and Phoenix have led to today at the Staples Center and the Knicks are almost finished with this long stretch away from Madison Square Garden. Almost. Another game in LA against the desperate Lakers awaits Tuesday. After an impressive showing against the Grizzlies, New York has dropped two straight games. Of course these were all against elite opponents, but now the Knicks may face their biggest challenge in LAC. I actually like the way they measure up, though. The Clippers have been extremely sharp from the field. With an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% and NBA-leading 41.7% from beyond the arc, the Clippers have arguably the most talented group of shooters in the NBA not named the Nets. When Leonard and George and Morris Sr. and Jackson are all in-sync, LAC is extremely dangerous and can score with a rapid ferocity (not to mention Rondo’s help via his exceptional passing off the bench). More to come on my podcast this week but I like their chances in the playoffs. Be that as it may, the Knicks may be one of the only teams in the NBA that can match the Clippers’ intensity. The Clippers get open because they just have too much exceptional talent. Whether its Leonard or George or another player driving to the rim, they cause defenses to collapse and that leaves their elite shooters wide open. Undisciplined teams don’t have answers for the Clippers, but I think the Knicks can. LAC lost to teams like the Suns and 76ers for the same reasons that they could be challenged by New York. The Knicks don’t easily fall for tricks, even against offensive savants like Kawhi Leonard, and that should be able to slow down LAC’s attack. The only other time these two teams faced back in late January the Clippers did what they always do– outshot their opponent and kept margin all game, shooting 54.3% from the field and 44.7% from 3-point land. That was at MSG so this a revenge game for New York and doubly so considering the pride they have on defense. The Knicks also fear slipping back into the East standings, still sitting comfortable at 4th overall. I’ll take the underdog to keep this contest close. The Knicks and Clippers both play at a really slow pace and I expect the same intensity that I mentioned in the above write-up between Boston and Miami, so it’s another under play for me, too.
Mavericks -11 (-110), 2 units: It looks like Kevin Love might return in this game but that doesn’t concern me. Dallas easily beat the Cavaliers by 20 points Friday night and I don’t see why this game would look any different. If Love does play, he won’t be 100%. He’s nursing a knee issue and it’s clear his team has mailed it in for the season. The Cavaliers have lost 9 games in a row. During that stretch, they’ve lost by an average of 17.1 points. Dallas cannot afford to fall in the standings, the Blazers are creeping up on their 5th seed, and will look to gain and sustain margin today.
Lakers +7.5 if Anthony Davis plays (-110), 1 unit: I really want to play on the Lakers here as they look to escape a “play in tournament” spot but they’re very banged up. Based on reports I’m reading now, Kuzma is out, Caruso and Horton-Tucker are questionable, and Gasol and Caldwell-Pope and Davis are probable. If the Lake-show wants to avoid the tournament, the time is now. Phoenix sits comfortably and somewhat untouchably in the 2nd place spot in the West so they might not share the same motivation. They have a tough but winnable schedule in their last 5 games and really only need to win 2 games to stay in their position. We’ll see if the Lakers can muster a good performance here Sunday, they need it. Only a 1 unit play for me.
Another 4-1 night gives us an 8-2 record the last two days and your boy is LOVING it. Thank you so much to the many people who have given these NBA articles so much viewership! It means a ton to me; I’m extremely passionate about these picks and I love it when we all win. Onto more free plays and onto more cash!
Wizards win (-160), 2.5 units and Game over 248 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m not sure if Washington can cover the 3.5, this should be a close game, but I do expect them to win. Both the Pacers and Wizards play with a ton of heart and they’re desperate for more victories before the season ends– Washington is ranked 10th and Indiana is 9th in the East, two of the last spots left in the play-in tournament to get into the postseason. While Sabonis and McDermott hold up the Pacers, Beal and Westbrook have been putting on a show for the Wizards. The pace and aggression of Russel Westbrook is really hard to match and I expect a big game for Beal against a Pacers team ranked 25th in points allowed this season. The Wizards play at the quickest tempo in the NBA and Indiana is ranked 5th, while both teams are in the top 8 (Pacers- 8th, Wizards- 4th) in points per game. The Wizards will edge the Pacers at the end in yet another 235-230 type scenario, so I’ll go with the over and Wizards. This should be entertaining!
Nuggets over 114.5 points (-110), 2 units: I don’t know if the Nuggets will win this game, Brooklyn is awfully desperate after 4 straight losses, but Jokic and Porter Jr. and Gordon are going to be a problem for the Nets. That rag-tag group from Brooklyn has been under siege over how they play defense (or lack thereof) and they deserve the criticism. They’re 23rd in points allowed per game, 21st in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed 119 ppg in their last 5 contests (they’ve gone 1-4 in that span). I like this game going over the 232 total and I lean the Nuggets side, too. The Nuggets have done nothing but win throughout the last month and after a let-down against the Jazz last night I expect Denver, at home, to put in maximum effort Saturday night. They’ll coast for the rest of their season (games against Charlotte, Minnesota, Detroit and Portland await) so they can slow down after tonight, but this is the type of game they’ll want to rise up for and flex. Jokic and company will have no issue out-smarting and scoring on Brooklyn’s defense, while the Nets will push the pace and force more points out of Denver. Hammer it.
Spurs +6 (-110), 1.5 units: This is too many points for the Blazers to cover and too many for San Antonio to give up. As much as we love to boast about Portland’s offense, they don’t create a ton of margin. They’re just over the level at +1.1 in point differential and they’re 22nd in points allowed per game. The Spurs are as desperate as ever in the 10th spot in the Western Conference with a ton of tough games ahead to end their season. They need this win and they need to keep covering on the road (they’re the away ATS leader at 68.8%, 22-10-1). This is an automatic play for me on a very solid, very well-coached team.
Gonna make a public play here so tail with your own risk. Did you happen to catch that no no last night? Miley was throwing darts and Cleveland was embarrassed at home. This no hitter is somewhat surprising but Cleveland also was one of the worst batting teams last year with only slight improvement ranking 26th this year. The Indians need to regroup and I think that this is the spot where they come alive. Both of these pitchers Castillo and Civale are pretty close to equal with Lifetime FIPs around 3.8 ish. The Bullpen is where this game might be won. Cincinnati has the 3rd worst bullpen FIP in baseball at 4.88 while Cleveland’s sits around 3.8. The Tribe’s best reliever James Karinchak should be available after resting yesterday. The Reds certainly have the better bats but they are the number 1 team in batting average with RISP (runners in scoring position) so regression is in order at some point being that they are 7th in batting average and 9th in WRC+. I won’t be rushing to back Cinci too soon. The situation that goes against the Indians according to Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk via Killersports.com is that since 2004, teams that just got no hit are usually bad bets in General the next game at 40% 22-33, but at home these teams are 13-15 so I think that this situation somewhat bucks that trend to null. I think the Land is the play here and let’s see if they can redeem themselves.
Cleveland -122 – 2 stars
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas city +143 O/U 9
Do you guys like simple and easy handicaps or do you like reading novels? The White Sox are number 1 in the league against lefties at a massive 137 WRC+. Lance Lynn is on the helm for the Sox and he has a nice 2.27 FIP while Daniel Lynch for the Royals is as green as the fake grass in my front yard. The Sox have a much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to the Royals 25th.
As usual it’s a mega card on Saturday so we’ll do this lightning style just like last time– shorter write-ups, more opportunities, more picks. Those Orioles bats got real quiet last night but we still had a winning night at 2-1 in MLB bets overall. Onto Saturday!
Nats/Yankees under 4 in first 5 (-110), 1.5 units: Corey Kluber (3.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 29.2 innings) may be returning to his old form. He’s looked fantastic in his last 2 starts, allowing only 1 run over his last 14.2 innings at the mound. You could say the same thing for Max Scherzer (2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 39 innings), who wiped the floor with the Marlins in his last start, allowing only 5 hits and 1 run over a full 9 innings. He also had 9 strikeouts. Scherzer needed that after a bad look against the Blue Jays and he’ll look to bring that same heat into the Bronx. In the first 5, I trust that these long-time aces can keep scoring low until the later innings.
Cardinals -1.5 (+105), 1 unit: It was another solid performance by Flaherty (allowing only 3 hits in 7 innings) as the Cardinals blanked the Rockies in game 1 and got us our first win Friday night. Colorado may be in for a long painful affair at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals bats looked ready to rock behind a much more formidable rotation than what the Rockies can offer. I don’t see much changing throughout this series. Carlos Martinez (3.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP over 36.1 innings) has been solid for St. Louis and after rough showings in his first 2 starts, he’s displayed a very steady and consistent command. Chi Chi Gonzalez (4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 24.2 innings) gets the nod for Colorado and he’s been regressing a bit as the young season trudges on. In his last 2 starts, he’s permitted 7 runs and 12 hits in just over 9 innings. I’ll take the home team for another win by margin. They’re the better team by a mile and it’ll show again Saturday.
Giants win (+125), 1 unit and Game under 7 (-105), 1 unit: Two separate bets. I love the Giants in series like this. Excellent pitching from DeSclafani and a bullpen that held up just enough gave San Francisco the edge in game 1 against their rival Padres. Joe Musgrove (2.38 ERA, 0.74 WHIP over 34 innings) takes on Kevin Gausman (2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 39.2 innings) today as two more elite pitchers vow to play deep into this contest and keep the game low scoring. Something about that NorCal air seems to agree with the hometown Giants– they’re 11-3 this year at home; they always seem to muster just enough offense to edge out good teams like San Diego. This is another value play on San Francisco and I have to side with the under.
Tigers first 5 (+150), 1 unit: This is good value on Detroit. The Tigers are not a good team and they’ve lost 8 of their last 9 contests, but they are at home against a hittable pitcher and I don’t hate what I’ve seen from Jose Urena (3.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 35.2 innings). Urena has allowed 2 runs in every game he’s started so far, which isn’t bad considering he averages 7 innings per game and hasn’t allowed a single homerun. Minnesota loves to live and die by big slugs so that’s a good thing for Detroit’s chances, at least earlier in the contest. Jose Berrios (3.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings) hasn’t impressed me this year and recently he’s looked worse, allowing 11 hits and 6 runs in his last 2 starts. Positive regression may be coming for Berrios, but this is as good a spot as any for the Tigers to take advantage of a pitching matchup where there’s not significant disparity in talent. How do you win money in sports betting? By finding value and proper unit allocation. Hence, I’m only betting 1 unit here since Minnesota is clearly the better team, but the Tigers have built-in value and it would pay handsomely.
Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-110), 2 units: Is Garrett Richards (4.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.99 FIP over 28.2 innings) the Red Sox most confusing starter? Perhaps. He looked excellent in moments this year and very vulnerable in others. It’s hard to get a grasp on the 10 year starter at this point in his career; at 32 he could either be in his prime or starting to feel the weight of 800+ major league innings. I’ll bet that he’s hittable. In two starts against the Orioles earlier this year Richards allowed 10 hits, 8 earned runs and 2 homers. Baltimore’s bats should regain some confidence today. The Orioles are starting the young leftie Zac Lowther (25 years old, 92 mph fastball) Saturday, who in 1 inning looked pretty darn crisp against the Athletics. He played well in the minors but we don’t know too much else about Lowther. This is a big test today against arguably the best offense in baseball (Boston is 1st in runs per game, batting average, hits per game, and slugging percentage). I think there’s definitely value on Baltimore again today, but Boston is playing well so I’ll save my money and won’t pick a side. Instead I’ll lay 2 units on this total soaring over 9 runs.
Astros -1.5 (+145), 1.5 units: This feels like the time to start backing Houston again. The Blue Jays have played okay recently but they seem to always stutter when they’re at a disadvantage on the mound. There’s a clear disadvantage today. In 5 starts and 25.2 innings, young Christian Javier (1.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.53 FIP, 93.2 mph fastball) looks like he’s ready to remain a part of the Astros rotation. He’s had 3 games without giving up a run, he’s allowing only 0.35 HR/9 innings, and after a mediocre showing last time out against the Rays he’ll be even more motivated to impose his will against Toronto. If Houston is able to keep their bats even a little warm, I don’t see Steven Matz (4.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 32 innings) holding up. The value is on the Astros by margin.
This game should be a walk in the ballpark for the Cardinals. Colorado has Austin Gomber on the helm who previously played for the Cardinals but is just sporting 5.9 ERA with a 4.65 FIP. The Rockies are 2nd to last in WRC+ at 82 and also 2nd to last in Bullpen FIP of 4.96. Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for the Cardinals boasting a 3.28 FIP over 36 innings. The Cardinals have a pretty average hitting and bullpen but I like them coming off of 2 losses here and after a day of rest.
2-2 day in MLB Thursday and we tend to be hitting at 50% a lot lately. Are we still in the black? Yes. That’s what good unit allocation is all about. But let’s get a winning day, shall we (in my defense, I do take a lot of dogs where others wouldn’t, you’re welcome)?! There’s a ton going on at the Farley house today so this will be a short article because of that and because I don’t see quite as much value on the card. Onto my TGIF picks!
Cardinals -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Cardinals remain at Busch Stadium and besides a blip against the Nationals in his 3rd start, Jack Flaherty (3.41 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.02 WHIP over 34.1 innings) has looked like himself so far, holding a steady command on the mound, displaying an exceptional velocity and limiting big hits. I don’t like Colorado as much away from Coors Field and Austin Gomber (5.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 29 innings), while serviceable, doesn’t scare me away at all. Gomber was formally associated with St. Louis both in the minors and as a one year starter, so I’m sure he’ll want to do well, but the Cardinals bats are due for some redemption after a few bad looks against the Mets. I’ll take St. Louis by margin in a good spot.
Orioles over 4 runs (+125), 2 units: Last time Baltimore was at bat they faced Seattle’s leftie Yusei Kikuchi and we all know how that game went. Yes yes, our boy John Means threw the perfect game and we love to see that, but the Orioles bats also had their way with Kikuchi. They usually do against lefties. They were good for 8 hits and 6 runs, steadily building a lead throughout the contest. Tonight the Orioles oppose Eduardo Rodriguez (4.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 28 innings), the left-handed 28 year old starter who’s looked very subpar in 2021, allowing plenty of hits and runs all 5 times he hit the mound. The Red Sox could easily out-hit the Orioles tonight, but I’m willing to bet (as you can tell) that the O’s will get theirs too. This might be delayed due to rain but whenever it happens, I love the Orioles to score against Rodriguez.
Giants win (+125), 1.5 units: Anthony DeSclafani (2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 36 innings) and the Giants are at home and take on Blake Snell (3.51 ERA, 1.48 WHIP over 25.2 innings) and the Padres Friday night, and this is a nice revenge spot for DeSclafani. The 31 year old looks like he’s settled into his prime in 2021 with some really impressive outings over 5 starts. Last week he was handed a loss after allowing 3 hits/runs over 6 innings against this same Padres team, at San Diego, but I think the result will be different today. The Giants just suffered two bad losses (we were on top of that) at Coors and dropped their second series in a row. The Padres enjoyed a win against the Pirates at home and now travel back to the Golden Gate city to face their divisional foe. Nearly tied at the top of the NL West, this should be a good game featuring two solid pitchers. I expect some positive regression for Snell, who hasn’t looked great after 5 starts, but the spot and team-motivation favors the Giants for me. Even in a win, nothing really impressed me about the Padres’ domination of Pittsburgh. The Giants need to get right. For that reason, at this value, I’ll go with the dog.
Colorado Avalanche players celebrate a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings in an NHL hockey game Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
Hi guys! My name is Patrick and I’ll be the new NHL Writer for TheOddsBreakers. The NHL season is winding down and with only a few games left for each team (besides Vancouver) the playoffs are starting to take shape. Today’s slate of games features a few interesting matchups, so lets break those games down.
Dallas Stars (+133) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-157)
The Dallas Stars travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning with hopes of keeping their playoff chances alive. The Lightning have secured their spot in the playoffs but are in a battle of their own against the Hurricanes for first place in the Central Division.
The Stars enter this game on a 0-5 streak in their last 5 while Tampa Bay are red hot. The line for the Lighting is the shortest it’s been vs Dallas all year averaging -165 in previous matchups. The Bolts are expected to start A. Vasilevskiy who has a 6-1 record and 1.42 GAA vs the Stars this year. Dallas is expected to start Anton Khudobin who has not played well vs Tampa going 0-3 with a 3.04 GAA.
The Lightning have been dominate at home all season going 21-6. They are facing a Dallas team who’s on the ropes and has struggled on the road. The short line does worry me a bit, but I still think the Bolts handle the Stars.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (-157), Risk 1.57 Units
Colorado Avalanche (-286) @ Los Angeles Kings (+235)
The Los Angeles Kings enter this game a record of 21-24-6 and their payoff chances on life support. The Av’s on the other hand, are in a battle for first in the Western Division with the Vegas Golden Knights.
The line for this game opened up around -260 for the Avalanche and has now moved to -290. In the previous two matchups, the line for the Avalanche closed at an average -230. Colorado is expected to start P. Grubauer who has a record of 27-9-1 with a 2.03 GAA and .920 SV%. When facing the Kings this season Grubauer is 3-0 with a 1.00 GAA. The Kings are expected to start C. Peterson who is 0-3 against the Avalanche giving up an average of 2.37 goals in those games.
Looking at this game, the one thing stands out to me is that when Colorado loses to an underdog with a moneyline of +200 or greater they have usually covered the puckline in the next game. The Avalanche dominate the Kings when it comes to comes to most of the basic categories including GPP, SPG, and PP%. In addition to basic stats, Colorado leads the league in xGF, Corsi %, and Fenwick %. With the Avalanche covering the puckline in the previous two matchups and them needing this game for playoff seeding, I think they get it done here again.
PICK: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-113), Risk 1.13 Units
It was another winning night for yours truly as our NBA bets went 4-1 overall. We got a little gift from lady luck in the Wizards/Raptors over bet but hey, when you get as many unfortunate beats as I do, I’ll take that ANY DAY of the week. Besides, do you really think that a Wizards game going under was the “right” side? Psh. Happy Friday, good people!
Pelicans +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Like I’ve said in so many previous articles (and in my podcast), New Orleans is a team with a ton of talent and they’re very desperate right now, sitting right outside the “play-in tournament” for a playoff bid. Philadelphia is the considerably better team but I have to believe the Pelicans can at least make this close for most of this contest, purely based on motivation. The 10th placed Spurs have a REALLY tough road ahead to stay on pace, so the Pelicans have a real opportunity to sneak into the postseason. I’ll lay 1 unit on that narrative.
Celtics -3 (-110), 1.5 units: Just like we figured, the Bulls ousted the Hornets last night after finally having a full lineup on the floor. LaVine had 13, Vucevic had 29, and the banged up Hornets couldn’t hang with a rejuvenated Bulls unit. I think things will look a little different tonight. Jaylen Brown will sit out tonight but Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson are probable for Boston. Veterans like Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, and of course Jayson Tatum round up a Celtics unit that sits at 35-31 on the season. That’s good for 6th in the East. Do you know who’s also 35-31? The Miami Heat; and they’re traveling to Boston Sunday for a double-header against the very same Celtics. Protecting the 6th seed is really important. If you fall to 7th, you’ll be a part of the “play-in tournament” games which, in the blink of an eye, puts you at risk of missing the playoffs. That’s one reason why I hate that whole idea but I digress. The Celtics are one of the more up and down teams in the association but they’ve turned up the volume recently, going 12-6 overall since the start of April. They’re top 13 in both offense and defensive efficiency, so they do nothing that really thrills you, but they’re full of talented shooters and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA. With how small they are, that’s pretty incredible and speaks to their effort. I expect max effort and a cover for Boston tonight, while I expect Chicago to deflate after that comfortable win against Charlotte’s B team.
Rockets/Bucks over 231.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Rockets tend to play at the pace of the other team, because they’re just that vulnerable, and even without John Wall they can still put up points. That’s especially true in the second half of the 2021 season. The Bucks play lightning fast at home and that’s how they overwhelm teams– once Giannis hits half court, it takes him about 3 long, sprinting steps to slam it down and he does it often. Milwaukee has averaged 126.5 points per game at home in their last 6 games, half of those against really good defenses like the Suns and Sixers. The Rockets play at the 6th quickest tempo in the NBA while the Bucks are 3rd. This all points towards another game with a ton of points for me. Consider a Milwaukee team total over, too.
Jazz -4 (-110), 2 units: The Jazz look to be rounding into form after 2 impressive wins over a tough San Antonio team this week. While the Suns lost a few games in a row, Utah’s recent wins neatly placed them right back in first place in the Western Conference. The Jazz will look to hold onto that top seed since it’ll undoubtedly mean a less trying road to the championship. The 1 and 2 seeds are a big deal for that reason. Meanwhile, all the Nuggets have done recently is win. Denver is 15-4 straight up since April 1st. Murray got injured on April 12, so the majority of those wins came after his absence. Court general Nikola Jokic has led the Nuggets past innumerable tough teams like the Knicks, Clippers, Grizzlies and Heat. I love Denver and I think they could be a real contender come playoff time, but this isn’t the spot. Utah will stay home and get the Western Conference’s worst team in the Rockets tomorrow night. Denver has to travel to Brooklyn Saturday to face an angry Nets squad that’s lost 4 in a row. And even with all the press the Jazz have received lately, they’re still probably way better than you think. Utah ranks 3rd in offensive and defensive efficiency (Hollinger Metrics), 2nd in rebounding rate, and 1st overall in point differential. The 2nd placed Clippers aren’t even close (Utah is +9.4, LAC is +6.2). At 22-11 ATS, the Jazz are also the NBA leader at covering games at home (66.7%). This is a comfortable, “protect the throne” type spot for the Jazz and I expect them to take advantage. I love Denver, but the cards stack up for a big Utah win.
Spurs -4 (-110), 2 units: This line is going up and up so jump on it now. After 2 straight losses to the Western Conference leading Jazz, San Antonio looks for some revenge and a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive as their tough road trip continues Friday. I don’t love that they have to travel to Portland tomorrow night, but San Antonio is still the best ATS road team in the NBA, covering at a rate of 67.7%. The Spurs have a REALLY tough road to stay in that 10th spot in the West. Check out the rest of their schedule: Kings tonight, then Portland, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, New York, and then two straight games against Phoenix. Wow, that’s pretty damn brutal. Point is, the Spurs need to win tonight and they need it bad. Popovich loves to put the clamps down on defense against teams like the Kings, who depend on their mid-tier offense to win games (that hasn’t worked), and Sacramento’s worst-ranked defense (Hollinger Metrics) won’t be able to hold up against DeRozan and Murray and the young, talented Spurs roster. That’ll be especially true with how motivated they should be. I’m all over San Antonio.
As many of us all know, football is a game of inches, and by being off just one, could be the difference between a win and a loss in a league with limited games. The shape of the football itself creates it’s own sort of randomness on circumstances such as field position during punts and how the ball spins during field goals. There is also a certain amount of randomness of “when” the points are scored that pertains to a team’s final win record. Let’s face it, there is a good amount of luck that happens within the football season the best teams do not always win against the worst teams. We can just go back to December 20th 2020 to find an easy example of that for when the Jets played the Rams.
Many of us NFL football analysts and sports bettors want to have good methods for prediction for next year’s football season in order to be more accurate. Wins and losses do not tell the whole story and they are also rarely a good indicator by itself for a team’s future success. If we find some scientific methods that will correlate well using a team’s past performances to their success in the future, it will help us become not only more knowledgeable, but it could also help us become more profitable. The method that we will be discussing today is the 2020 Pythagorean win total calculation as a method to help predict the 2021 football season results.
Is it possible for an NFL team to score more points than they give up and have a losing record? How about score less points than they allow and have a winning record? The answer to that is that it is very possible and it happens every year. In 2019 the Houston Texas scored 378 total points, yet gave up 399 to win 10 games. In that same year, the Chargers scored 337 points while only giving up 345 (almost 50/50) and only won only 5 games.
Sometimes teams score many of their points during blowouts and as luck will have it, those same teams might lose their close games. Due to these discrepancies, we need to formulate the data to find out what some of these teams were expected to do based on points scored compared to their actual win/loss results. Using a function that takes a look at the total points scored as a data point with the total points allowed is, at many times, a better indicator of a team’s future success compared to their actual record. This is why we can use a Pythagorean win total compilation to compare what was expected to happen based on points scored for all of the NFL teams, to what actually did happen in how these teams finished out their year. This way we can have a better idea on what to expect for next season. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Since then, the Pythagorean wins theorem has continued to be statistically significant.
The Pythagorean theorem is a^2+b^2=c^2. It basically figures out the distance between two points of a right triangle (c), or for what we are interested in, the expected value between the relationship of sides. Please see the figure. Think of points scored as (a), and points allowed as (b) where (c) is a function of the (a and b) linear equation and we just want to know what the relationship is between a^2/c^2 (c^2 is a^2 + b^2)to get a percentage of wins multiplied by the total games. Going by the diagram, if it is a tall and thin triangle, the team scored a lot more points compared to what they have given up, and if it is a short and long triangle, the team has given up many more points compared to what they actually have scored.
I know what you are thinking. Why can’t we just use the points scored over total points as a basis for predicting the expected outcomes? The answer to that simply is that the data would be wrong. For example, if a team scores 75% of the total points and only allowed 25% of the total points throughout the year, would we only expect that team to win just 75% of their games? Heck no. That is like averaging 30 points per game on offense and only allowing 10 points per game on defense. Even the 16-0 2007 patriots who scored 68.3% of the points averaging 36.8 on offense and giving up 17.1 on defense won many more than 12 games. The 2007 Patriots’ Pythagorean win total certainly didn’t equate to winning every game, but was at 13.76, which is much higher than the 12 and a much more relatable number to their fantastic season.
But wait, there is more! This Pythagorean equation does have it’s faults if adjustments are not made to it. This equation tends to bunch all of the teams more towards the middle when actual outcomes may deviate further away from the mean. Statistician Daryl Morey found this in football among other sports and was able to develop a more statically significant exponent of 2.37 (rather than 2) as a constant for better accuracy while utilizing this equation. Without getting too far into the weeds, we must make adjustments correlated to the actual variances that happened over the years pertaining to each sport, and for this column, football itself. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders takes this concept even farther by stating that each team’s exponent should be different as a function of their points scored. According to Schatz, the formula for each team’s exponent that works best in the NFL is 1.5 * log ((PF+PA)/G). I myself find that using the constant exponent of 2.37 doesn’t deviate significantly enough from Morey’s exponent model with respect to the actual randomness in the sport of football itself.
Now to discuss some of the methodology for our adjustments. The simple concept is adding a 17th game to the results. In order to do that you much take 17/16 which is 1.0625 and multiply that by each team’s points scored and points against. It is basically the same thing as adding their average points scored and allowed per game back into their total. For example, Green Bay scored 509 points during the 2020 season with an average of 31.8. Add the average to the total and you have 541 points adjusted for a 17 game season. The next adjustment that we need to make is their actual wins from 2020. Now all of these numbers are fixed numbers year over year with no decimal points so we have to theoretically add back the average into the equation by multiplying their total by 1.0625. So for instance, Green Bay won 13 games last year so we must normalize it to 13.81 and the Jacksonville Jaguars won just 1 game last year and we are normalizing it to 1.06. There is no reason to reward each team equally for a 17th game.
Finally, we have to take a look at turnovers. Every year there are teams that have something called turnover luck. Weather if the luck is good or bad, turnovers affect the scores and the results of each game. For example, some teams could have had a 3 point field goal and instead they fumble the ball away while some defenses are put on the back of their heels when teams turn the ball over in their side of the field. The Tennessee Titans had the best turnover ratio of +11 and the Denver Broncos had the worst at -16. Now it is well known that turnovers are worth about 4 points to each team respectively and the old school way of thinking is that turnovers are mostly random but I tend to disagree with that notion. If you look at the recent histories of each team, turnovers happen to be somewhat predictable. For example, before Tom Brady became a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Jameis Winston used to turnover the ball quite often and it would show up significantly negative year over year in Tampa Bay’s turnover margin. Jacksonville is another team that you have been able to pencil in the negatives for a while now. On the flip side of the coin, there are teams that take care of the ball more often on a consistence basis while them ore other teams might have great ball-hocking defenses that tend to force more turnovers than the others. The Baltimore Ravens fit that bill and the Kansas City Chiefs have been on the high positive side for turnovers for at least the last six or seven years for the most part. Due to this, I have adjusted turnovers to be about half of what they are worth to the number of 2 points per turnover and I award or punish each team only 1 point on offense and 1 point on defense (rather than 2 and 2) with respect to their 2020 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers give you a better idea of what each team’s expected wins should have been based on a cleaner season. Please see our chart below for our adjusted actual wins vs our Pythagorean expected wins.
NFL 2020 Pythagorean Season Win Totals Adjusted For 17 Games
Going by this diagram we can make informed judgements and educated decisions on the actual strength of these teams with respect to not only how well they can score against their opponents but also how well that they can defend. As you can see from the difference column between the actual results adjusted for a 17 game schedule with the Pythagorean (or expected) results that we can actually see how teams have either over-achieved, or under-achieved in the 2020 season. Here are the four outliers on each side:
Over-achievers (all based on a 17 game season):
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs had only 10.85 expected wins compared to their 14.88 adjusted actual win record last year. A -4.02 difference. KC went 7-10-1 ATS last year and 1-9-1 ATS their last 11 games. They won a lot of close ones.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns only had 8.02 expected wins compared to their 11.69 adjusted actual win record last year. A -3.67 difference. Cleveland was outscored 419 to 408 last year.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills had expected wins of 11.05 compared to their 13.81 adjusted actual win record last year. A -2.66 difference. Buffalo had a pretty easy schedule but they were also ATS monsters at 12-7. Three of their four losses were were by 9 points or more and 1 of their losses was by 26 points.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans had expected wins of 9.19 compared to their 11.69 adjusted actual win record last year. A -2.5 difference. Tennessee had +11 turnovers which really helped them win a lot of games.
Under-achievers (all based on a 17 game season):
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcon’s had expected wins of 7.92 compared to their 4.25 adjusted actual win record last year. A +3.67 difference. Atlanta lost eight out of the nine games that were decided by a touchdown or less.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars had expected wins of 4.46 compared to their 1.06 adjusted actual win record last year. A +3.40 difference. An -8 turnover margin certainly didn’t help and they lost every close game that they had. Going 7-9 ATS also shows that they underachieved.
Houston Texans: The Texans had expected wins of 7.01 compared to their 4.25 adjusted actual win record last year. A +2.76 difference. Having a -9 turnover ratio hurts while this team was predicted to regress from their Pythagorean expected win totals from 2019. Houston blew a lot of games right at the end.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles had expected wins of 6.78 compared to their 4.25 adjusted win record last year. A +2.53 difference. Philadelphia had lots of injury woes last year. They went 3-5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and the tie game with Cincinnati also hurt their total wins.
In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved. Remember to take this information for what it’s worth. When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Cam Newton and Kirk Cousins. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.
Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success of NFL teams going into their 2021 seasons and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results. The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis in the 2021 season and beyond. Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev. Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.
Ref 1: Football Outsiders: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-13-dvoa-ratings
