It’s a wild day at the Farley household so this post will be more brief than usual. Can’t wait to just sit back and watch today’s games once all the mayhem ceases (i.e. we have family coming today, which is always madness). 1-2 yesterday in my picks– let’s do it better today! Here are Sweet 16 Sunday picks:
Creighton/Gonzaga over 158 (-110), 2 units: Gonzaga beats teams in a lot of different ways, but none more famously than just boat-racing their opponents on the scoreboard. Creighton plays good defense but I don’t think they’re built to stop all the diverse ways that Gonzaga can score. I see the Bulldogs using their pace and effective output to overwhelm the Bluejays from the start of this contest. As a unit, Creighton does a good job finding both high quality shots (they’re 3rd in the nation in near proximity field goal percentage at Haslametrics) and buckets from beyond the arc (ranked 28th overall in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs play top 10 defense but Creighton will have to increase their tempo and chase Gonzaga throughout, which should push the tally to soar even more. I’ll take the over here for 2 units.
Michigan -2 (-110), 1.5 units: The Seminoles stepped up big time last week and gave us a huge win both here in my free plays for 3 units and for premium customers, but this is where the buck stops if you’re asking me (and you are, right?). Florida State is long and full of skill-players but they don’t do well in big spots like this against elite opponents. We’ve seen it a few times during the season and it’ll be on full display today. Hunter Dickinson and the Michigan Wolverines play smart, efficient basketball on both ends of the court and I expect them to show off just how deadly they are both beyond the arc and at the rim against a Florida State defense that isn’t as disciplined. The Wolverines play methodical and don’t depend on any one type of style. The Seminoles, as talented as they are, are a more emotional and volatile team that needs to play exceptional all game to keep up with an elite team like this. Michigan won’t drop the ball and let that happen Sunday. Bet the Wolverines.
Alabama -6.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m on the Bama train! I’ll keep this one real short. I give UCLA a lot of credit for what they’ve been able to do thus far but I’m not as impressed by their level of opponent in the first 2 rounds. Alabama will serve as a huge uptick in class for the Bruins. As you probably know, the Crimson Tide can score and score in bunches very quickly (ranked 11th in tempo on KenPom) and I don’t think the 58th ranked defense of UCLA will be able to keep pace, especially weighing the fact that Alabama has one of the best defenses in the nation. I think Bama wins big here.
Jan 19, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers forward Shareef O'Neal (R) guards Alabama Crimson Tide forward Darius Miles (L) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Florida State vs Michigan -2.5 O/U 144.5
I have actually been looking forward to this matchup here and this game is part of the reason that I have Florida State in my final 4. I do not like how Michigan finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games. Their style of basketball is great, it’s controlled and they have playmakers, but they haven’t faced a team with this height and this is where I think that Hunter Dickenson and Franz Waggoner could struggle getting those high percentage shots. Florida State is a fast paced team who turns the ball over at a big clip but Michigan isn’t a team that really forces many turnovers only ranking 337th on defense forcing only about 14% of possessions to turn. Another thing that makes me like Florida State here is the fact that they can shoot the ball about as well as Michigan and they rebound about the same as well. The Wolverine’s are without their senior leader in Isaiah Livers which really could affect them in a game like this. Leonard Hamilton is 7-2 ATS as a dog with 5 outright wins in the NCAA tournament. I have close to a pickem at 71-71 here.
Creighton vs Gonzaga -13.5 O/U 158.5
Is there anything bad about Gonzaga? This is the most efficient team that I have seen at least since the 2017 Villanova Wildcats. The knock on them is always that they haven’t played a strong schedule. Well being that their games have mainly been statistically final, we really do not know the true ceiling of this team.
One thing that I do know is that Creighton is better than all of the teams that they have faced this year minus maybe Iowa and that game went to 187 points. Gonzaga ranks 2nd and seconds per possession and Creighton ranks 42nd at 16.1 seconds per possession. Gonzaga is scoring 90+ points here for sure. If Creighton gets 70 this game is going over.
I have Gonzaga winning 91-76
Play the over 158 – 3 stars
UCLA vs Alabama -6.5 O/U 145
Who is the real UCLA? The team that lost 4 games in a row before the tournament or an actual legit team who could make it to the elite 8? I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
What would this line be 1 week ago is the question? 7? 8? 10 points? 2 weeks ago? 11?12?
UCLA lost a few key players throughout the season and some younger guys really stepped up.
UCLA had a pretty easy road to get to the sweet 16 getting a bad Michigan State team, then an overrated BYU team, then Abilene Christian instead of Texas.
After two very shocking upsets, Max Abmas and his #15 seed Golden Eagles look to continue their cinderella run in the Sweet 16. Oral Roberts can shoot from anywhere on the court. They average 81.5 points per game. Max Abmas shoots at a very high clip. He averages 24.5 points per game and is 47.9% from the field. The Golden Eagles are coming off two wins against Ohio State and Florida.
The #3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks look to build off this impressive season. This young team is carried by three freshman in the starting lineup. One of those freshman is highly touted guard Moses Moody. The 6’6 guard is averaging 17.1 points a game. JD Notae is right behind Moody in scoring.
We all love an underdog, but unfortunately it is going to end tonight. With a week off from not playing, all the fire and momentum Oral Roberts was able to build is going to die. Oral Roberts is ranked first in all of the NCAA for 3 Pointers Made. But that is what is going to hurt them tonight. They will be off from shooting and will look less fiery on the court. And if they show any sign of lackluster play, this Arkansas team will smother them. Eric Musselman’s team is deep, and has a very uncanny ability to score.
The Pistons roll into this Saturday night matchup on a 3 game losing streak. They lost their last outing 113-111 at home to the Brooklyn Nets. The Pistons offensive woes continue. They only average 107.3 points per game, while giving up 110.9. Those averages for them prove their record. The Pistons are 12-32 and are one of the worst teams in the NBA right now. Dennis Smith Jr is listed as DTD.
The Wizards also come into this game on a 3 game skid. They hold a record of 15-28, and are coming off disappointing loses to the New York Knicks. The biggest issue with the Wizards continues to be their defense. It is a combination of not being able to guard anyone, and also choosing not to guard anyone. Washington gives up 120.2 points a game. Bradley Beal is listed as DTD.
If Bradley Beal plays, which he should, I do not see this game being close. The Pistons are nothing without Jerami Grant. If the Wizards can find a way to limit Grant’s scoring, then the Pistons will be in trouble. The Pistons lack offense, and the backcourt duo of Westbrook and Beal should be able get the job done at home tonight to end their losing streak.
This is going to be a killer main event here for the heavyweight championship of the world. These are clearly the 2 best heavyweight fighters right now and they face off once again to see who is the best of the best. Back in 2018, these 2 heavyweights fought with Stipe fighting the perfect fight and winning it in a decision. Since then, Stipe has only fought 1 fighter in Daniel Cormier 3 times winning 2 of them. Francis since then has fought 4 fights against, Curtis Blaydes, Jairzihno Rosenstruik, Junior Dos Antos, and Can Valezquez finishing every single fighter in the first round by KO/TKO. Let’s be clear, I think that Stipe is the better technical fighter here but Francis has the power and is an absolute beast when it comes to stand-up and can finish anyone who crosses his path. Ngannou weights 263 lbs with an 83 inch reach, Miocic weighs 234 lbs, is 38 years old with an 80 in reach. I think Francis is a little bit hungrier for that title here. Francis wins this fight to set up a trilogy and I do not think the fight will last that long.
This is a shorter article than usual but I wanted to get my plays out there early so you can look through your options today. Sweet 16 college hoops, NBA action, MLB is on the way and UFC 260 is here! What a day for sports!
Parlay- Nurmagomedov, Menifield, and O’Malley (1 unit to win 1.45): The price is hefty but I think it’s worth it. Abubakar Nurmagomedov needs a win after he got caught in a submission and lost in his first UFC fight. Jaren Gooden is a good matchup for him. Expect a cautious, dominant takedown-heavy win and the young man to live up to his name tonight. * Menifield has dropped 2 straight and gets a nice chance to redeem himself against a less powerful and less athletic opponent. There’s a reason why the over is so juiced in this contest– Menifield should be able to land a KO/TKO win here. We’ll take the ML just to be safe. * Sean O’Malley is worth the hype. He’s extremely long, quick and powerful for a Bantamweight and should have no problem making quick work of Thomas Almedia. O’Malley will have to watch for those leg kicks, however, since 2 foot injuries have somewhat limited his meteoric rise. Almedia has been whipping out those kicks more and should target O’Malley often, but the heavy favorite is too big and crafty and should get a clean win.
Luque/Woodley Does Not Go the Distance (+105): Woodley has been vocal about a resurgence and he’ll get a shot to redeem himself against one of the more entertaining fighters in the UFC. The 29 year old Luque has a ferocious, aggressive fighting style and at 5.72 strikes landed and 5.82 strikes absorbed per minute, is not only one of the most voluminous but one of the most hittable fighters in the division. Normally Tyrone Woodley would love a takedown but I think the veteran and former champ wants to make a statement Saturday. Either Woodley gets knocked out here or he tries to go for it all. We’ve heard the cries about how boring his fights can be. That moniker must bother him and he’s too smart to not take advantage of Luque’s defensive holes. I think this one could be explosive– at least that’s what we hope for in a small octagon at the APEX!
Ngannou wins by KO/TKO/or DQ (EVEN): Let’s be clear here– Francis Ngannou will not be winning this heavyweight title bout by submission. I mean, stranger things have happened but yea, no. Not happening. And the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Stipe. We’ve seen how well Stipe was able to absorb Francis’ punches in their first bout. He has a ton of endurance and once he survived that terrifying opening onslaught from Ngannou, he proceeded to take down “The Predator” over and over again. It’ll be a tale of two fights in that sense– if Stipe can survive the first 2 rounds, the champion may prove once again why many think he’s the best to ever do it at this weight class. But not so fast my friends, not so fast. If you’ve listened to Ngannou recently on Joe Rogan or in his countless interviews leading up to this contest, he’s a different fighter. His first fight against Stipe was over 3 years ago– that’s a longgg time. The Cameroonian monster is smarter, quicker, and undoubtedly has a higher IQ and bigger gas-tank after training with Kamaru Usman. He wasn’t ready for that moment in 2018, but I think he’s ready now. His quick work of the best competition in the heavyweight division has been mightily impressive. And you can tell the man is humble and gentle outside the octagon; maybe that’s something that affected his aggressiveness in the past. His most recent win against Rozenstruik revealed a different animal. Ngannou knocked out the talented Rozenstruik within 20 seconds and it was the way he did it that was most impressive. He knew the fight was over, but he kept throwing and landing hellacious punches until the referee basically tossed his body in between him and Rozenstruik. It was a reflection of his confidence, newfound aggression, and how much more precise his striking is. Stipe is one of the smartest and most well-rounded fighters in the history of the sport. But sometimes, just like Jan’s win over Israel at UFC 259, the combination of pure size and skill, along with an elevated fight IQ, is just too much for even the best fighters to overcome. Get ready to crown perhaps the most terrifying champion we’ve ever seen– I think Ngannou erases any doubts tonight.
These 2 teams played earlier this year with Arkansas securing the win 87-76. Arkansas started off slow and had to get back into this game late to win by 11. This Oral Roberts team has been electrifying and certainly the funnest team to watch in the tournament. They play fast and they are hitting some big big shots. Both of their games were close both went to overtime. The reason for Oral Roberts success was the turnover margin. Ohio State turned it over 16 times to their 6 and Florida turned it over 20 – 12 times? Can this keep up? Not likely. Arkansas is a complete team here and I expect this game to look a little bit more like the second half of the Colgate game. Arkansas ranks 10th in defense and Oral Roberts ranks 234th. Arkansas also is the better shooting team at 45.3% to 44.3% in a much harder conference. I think the Razorbacks can cover this game but I do not like their slow starts so I think that you will get a better number on them in-game betting. Wait for the game to be close and hit Arkansas. If the game isn’t close, then hit the under.
Lean Arkansas -11 and lean under 159
Syracuse vs Houston -6 O/U 140.5
Houston isn’t the best shooting team here and it has showed against Rutgers but I also think that Syracuse has been shooting out of their minds lately averaging about 50% from 3 their last 2 games and 49.4% overall their last 3 games. Houston has had their stinkers away from home this year but they have been consistently a top 10 team in the nation while Syracuse was thought to miss the tournament a week ago. The key thing for me is that Houston can defend the three pointer ranking 12th in the nation allowing 29.2%. Now they also play in a very bad shooting conference and all but that is still pretty high. Syracuse has been so hot and cold this year that it wouldn’t surprise me if they were hitting shots here or if they were missing and Houston would drain clock. My biggest fear is the Orange’s match-up zone that could confuse Houston and cause them to miss a lot of shots. I have Houston winning 73-65 but do I want to go against Jim Boeheim when his is 20-12 ATS since 2006 in this tournament? Probably not, but I think the under is a decent play because I can see many ways that it could hit.
Back in action! After a nice 15-10 start to my Tournament bets, we head to Saturday for the first day of Sweet 16 games. I’ll write-up a separate article for Sunday’s games. I can’t wait for more college hoopin’– let’s go!
Loyola-Chicago -6.5 (-115), 2 units: For those who already knew how good the Ramblers are, their showing so far in the tournament comes as no surprise. Loyola-Chicago may have gotten the toughest draw of any team still left. Getting an 8 seed (which was obviously very wrong) and having to go through the Midwest Region, where red-hot Georgia Tech and Illinois were looming, was not the fate that Loyola had pictured. But it hasn’t mattered. The Ramblers took care of Georgia Tech and Illinois in consecutive contests and neither of those wins were fluky. They were clearly the better team. Look at the game-flow chart on their game against the Illini– they controlled all 40 minutes. The Ramblers sit at #9 overall on KenPom and 11th on Haslametrics but it’s hard to account for all the reasons why they’re so good. Cameron Krutwig is surely one of those reasons. The crafty senior is college basketball’s Nikola Jokic, equipped with a natural, keen ability to facilitate his comrades and command the court. He has a beautiful shot, doesn’t make many mistakes, and plays with a fire that’s hard to measure. Maybe it’s the small-school attitude that sends Krutwig over the edge. In a game where athleticism and pure shooting ability get all the praise, Krutwig’s basketball IQ and leadership are what separate him from the herd. And he’s the defining factor for why I think the Ramblers can cover this line. Make no mistake about it, Oregon State is an impressive team and they could very well dethrone the Ramblers. Equally impressive was their win over Oklahoma State, maybe the other sharp-darling not named Illinois to win it all, in another game where we saw the underdog stay in the lead from start to finish. Oregon State has shot well and played solid defense, but I think their win over the Cowboys was a tad fluky. Oklahoma State missed a ton of easy shots and Cade Cunningham seemed unready for the big moment. He needed to turn it up in the second half and never really did; he never showed any moxie or fire either. The Beavers won’t be able to shoot the way they did against Oklahoma State and get away with it against Loyola. The Ramblers’ defense is very stout and they’re also extremely effective on offense. I think this game could be close but I expect the Ramblers to take control and limit whatever steam Oregon State has gained. This sat at 7 at one point so this feels like a little win already for me. I’m on Sister Jean’s squad once again!
Villanova +7.5 (-105), 1.5 units: A ton of people I listen to and respect love Baylor in this game and I get it. The Wildcats haven’t exactly been challenged in the tournament thus far and Baylor is a true titan of the postseason, 2nd only to Gonzaga as a favorite to win it all. The Bears will challenge Villanova on both sides of the court and it may prove daunting for the underdog to keep pace. I understand all that, but hear me out here. Let’s look at a few intangibles, which are obviously something many of us have overlooked in a tournament full of surprises. There’s a perception out there, recency bias perhaps, that Jay Wright isn’t a great ATS coach in March. The reality is Villanova hasn’t been a fantastic favorite, but they’re an underdog Saturday and that spells a different story. Sure, they lost 2 years ago in the tournament and didn’t cover as an underdog to Purdue, but the Wildcats are 7-4 ATS overall dating back to 2005 (under Jay Wright). They’re also 4-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games under Wright. And don’t you think the Wildcats will have a little chip on their shoulder heading into this? Baylor is Baylor and at times it seemed glaring that this would be the Bears’ year, but Villanova has won the title twice in the last 5 years. Their coaches have been here. Some of their seniors have been here. The Gillespie injury hurts, but the Wildcats have played really well without him. They’re averaging 50% from the field in their first two bracket games and they’ve looked very stoic and disciplined, only turning the ball over 6 times in each game. This is obviously a huge difference in class in their opponent tonight, but Villanova presents as a buttoned up (like their coach) program that won’t falter under the bright lights. I like siding with a seasoned program as an underdog in big match-ups like this (i.e. the Patriots, Lakers, the Dodgers, etc.), even if it’s not as sexy. I might just sprinkle some ML action on this, too.
Houston -6.5 (-110), 2 units: Jim Boehiem’s Orangemen face off in the Saturday finale against the Houston Cougars in what should be a pretty good game. According to ShotQuality, Houston ranks first in terms of “quality in defense” on 3-point shots and I think that’s really going to matter on Saturday. A big thank you for that little tidbit via the recent OddsBreakers podcast with Simon Gerszberg. Syracuse has survived so far thanks to some really tough defensive play, especially from their big boys in the front court, and by some really exceptional shooting. Take the last game as an example. The Orangemen shot 52% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc against West Virginia. That’s pretty damn impressive. West Virginia is known for their blitzkrieg attack on offense but they play defense at a rather pedestrian level. We knew that heading into tournament play and it’s why the Mountaineers weren’t able to really shine as an elite team all year. Houston’s defense cannot be compared to the Mountaineers. KenPom ranks the Cougars defense 11th while Haslametrics has them at 7th overall. And also unlike West Virginia, Houston (ranked near the bottom of the nation in pace) will slow down this game and gnaw away at the Syracuse front and back courts. Hell, West Virginia played into the hands of the Orangemen with their style of play. Not Houston. I think the Cougars match up really well here. It’s an unfortunate draw for the Orangemen because I think they could upset a lot of teams that are still in it. Houston just isn’t one of them. I’ll bet Houston to cover for 2 units.
The winning continues! I went 3-1 last night, which makes our overall record 12-6 in NBA Free Picks this week! Gotta love that. It’s getting sunny and warm in the Northeast; what’s not to be happy about?! Happy Friday!
Celtics/Bucks over 235 (-110), 1 .5 units: My favorite play on this game is still the over, even after winning this exact same bet 2 nights ago (albeit when the line was at 230, but still). Check out my article from Wednesday on why I think this is such a solid bet. It was my play of the night then and it might be again Friday. I see no reason why this game wouldn’t fly over the total. Look for more defense early and then a lower live total line to take advantage of, too. The pendulum will swing back, mark my words.
Suns -4 (-110), 2 units: On Wednesday I jumped on the opportunity to let the gambling world know that the line (-3) looked awfully sneaky on the Denver/Toronto game. I thought the Raptors were a live dog and as it turned out, boy were they ever. And now we’re seeing quite the line adjustment here as the Suns are mere 4 point road favorites after that ass-whooping Toronto put on the Nuggets. I’m happy to take advantage. The Raptors are a very solid team and I think they’ll be sneaky if they make the playoffs. When they’re healthy and hot, they’re tough to beat. Toronto plays highly disciplined defense and they’re very well balanced; no one ego or star is too big for the team. We saw the result of that reality 2 nights ago, but let’s take a closer look at that game again. Denver was in a tougher spot, on the road and coming off a game just one night before at Orlando, where they squeaked by with a win. The Raptors were in prime position– back at their new home in Tampa, rested, and all of their players were finally healthy after a long COVID/injury disruption to their roster. Spirited and ready to end their losing streak, the Raptors shot 50% from the field and from beyond the arc and overwhelmed the Nuggets early. Denver wasn’t ready or motivated enough for that effort. The result was a beat-down and 24 point win. And now I think it’s time to fade Toronto. Phoenix just had a bad loss to Orlando and comes into tonight nearly done with their road trip– only one more game left on Sunday against a LaMelo-less Charlotte squad. The Suns won’t be intimidated or thrown off by the way the Raptors play. Phoenix plays slow, methodical and efficient and they really lock players down on defense. The Raptors are built to stifle and surprise rhythm teams like the Nets and Nuggets, not the Suns. Their style will play right into the hands of a Phoenix team who wants to get back to their winning ways now that LAL is without Anthony Davis and Lebron. There are new openings in the VIP seats of the Western Conference and the Suns want in. I’ll take the Suns to cover on the road, and it just might be with ease.
Rockets/Timberwolves over 229 (-110), 1 unit: Well if anyone can help the Rockets offense it’s the 26th ranked Minnesota defense. With Oladipo gone, the Rockets now have a better idea of who they are and how they have to grow moving forward. Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk could be nice additions for Houston and the team may be a little less distracted, too. Let me be clear– do I think Houston is now a better team without Oladipo? Hell no. But clarity helps and now they realize who their one and only star is: John Wall. Let’s work on cultivating his abilities in that offense, shall we? Minnesota ranks 28th in points allowed per game, while the Rockets come in at a cold 23rd. While neither team is blazing the court with high powered offense, they both routinely allow teams to score in the 120s and they play at an equally quick tempo, ranked 4th and 5th in overall pace. I see this as a 123-119 type of game so I’ll go with the over for a humble unit.
Games to Watch, not Bet: Grizzlies vs. Jazz (Lean, Grizzlies +10) and Pelicans vs. Nuggets (Lean, Nuggets -2.5): This Utah number is too big, in my opinion, but I can’t bet it since Memphis will be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight and could see some fatigue. The Jazz are also awfully good at home. I’ll be curious to watch how well Memphis plays in this spot. The Grizzlies are quietly on a little tear right now. They’ve won 3 straight games and they’ve looked really good on both ends of the court against formidable opponents. Let’s see how they stack up against an elite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept this game closer than expected. The Jazz just played the Nets B team 2 nights ago in a game that was never competitive and this will be a doubleheader against the Grizzlies. Memphis could catch em sleeping, at least in the 1st half (I’m talking myself into a 1 unit bet here, might do it). The Pelicans look good recently and just eked by Denver a few nights ago in a close battle. Denver just got trampled by the Raptors as their road trip continues. I’d take Denver for the revenge angle here but it’s a tough one to feel confident about. I’ll be excited to just observe and take notes on these two games.
Lean, Magic +9.5 (-110): Are the Blazers better than Orlando? Definitely. Can the Magic keep up with Portland’s high-octane offense? Probably not. But should the Blazers be 9.5 point favorites on the road against Orlando? No, that’s a little much. I realize Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are gone as the Magic look to their future, but like I said about the Rockets, sometimes the end of a trade deadline can fire up a team. Can’t bet it, but I think that line is inflated. If this were 7.5 to 8.5, I’d be all over it.
Lakers total points over 105.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a good spot for a little LAL resurgence. Last night we took the Lakers total under 105 and cashed, but this game is entirely different. Cleveland is really hurt and Kevin Love won’t play tonight. Cleveland displays a pedestrian defense, at best, that will look worse than its marginal stats Friday because of all their injuries. Kuzma and Schroder and Morris are due for some positive regression along with the rest of the Lakers’ offense as they try to navigate this new territory in the wake of his Lebron’s absence. Make no mistake, the Lakers are still talented, so they’ll only get better on offense (especially with Lebron steadily advising them off the court). Marc Gasol returns tonight, who should provide an uptick in production, and he’s a good front-court facilitator for the offense, too. I like the Lakers side in this game (-4) but I like the total bet even more. Time to LAL to figure some shit out and Coach Lebron should have his team ready to feast on a lesser Cleveland unit.
How about the Pack 12 this year!? I actually think that the Big 12, Pac 12, Big 10 and SEC are all close to the same strength with the Big East right there as well. This is going to be a very interesting game because you have two schools facing off that nobody would have thought would be in the sweet 13 a week ago when looking at the brackets. I think the one that is more understandable here is Loyola being that they have at least been ranked in the top 12 on Kenpom for a month or longer. Oregon State has been playing out of their minds lately and if you look at the trend line, it shows them skyrocketing ever since that loss to Oregon 3 weeks ago or so. It’s hard to believe that this Beavers team is the same team that lost to Portland this year as well as both Arizona schools back to back in February. In saying this, I think that the team that has the biggest chance for regression has to be the Beavers. In their last 2 games, Tennessee shot 33% and Oklahoma State shot 27%. Loyola is trustable to me to play extremely well and Oregon State really isn’t. I have this game Loyola 65-58 from a pure numbers standpoint. I think Loyola wins by between 3 and 15 points.
Lean Loyola -6.5 and lean under 125.5
Villanova vs Baylor -7.5 O/U 142
I think when you look at this game, you have to think about what these teams are right now. Baylor is playing some great basketball but I also must say that Wisconsin had their chances to score, but instead, missed way too many 3 pointers and lost the turnover margin 14-4. I think we all know who and what Baylor is. We also have a sample size on who they blew away their Big 12 competition and beat Illinois by 13 points in the non-conference. Villanova has been playing some great ball themselves but they still put up some stinkers this year vs teams they should have blown out. Now we still have to remember that Collin Gillispie isn’t playing who was their best player and heart and soul to this team. Villanova had an easy run to the sweet 16 having to face number 97 Winthrop and number 71 North Texas who couldn’t hit sand playing spiking a volleyball on the beach. Villanova is the best team in turnovers at 13.2% of possessions but Ball hocking Baylor ranks 3rd in forcing turnovers at 24.7% of possessions. Baylor is also the better shooting team and rebounding team. I have Baylor winning 79-70 but I certainly like the total more than the side!
