It’s another great week for us here at the OddsBreakers as I’ve gone 9-5 this week, though it feels like I’ve done even better. Premium members hit on a +650 parlay last night and we probably should have had a win with Indiana at -6, who stuttered at the end to only win by 5. Regardless, the association is in full focus and we head to Thursday, although I must say I don’t love today’s games quite as much. Remember, part of successful long-term sports betting is fading games you don’t feel right about. It’s just like a stock– you wouldn’t double-down on a commodity that’s been on the rise for 3 weeks and could level out or devolve any second. Bet methodically. That being said, I absolutely SHOULD HAVE put a play on Toronto last night. Okay this is turning into a rant. Onto the picks!

Blazers/Heat over 218.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Blazers +3 (-105), 1 unit: It’s hard to pick a side in this one. Both the Heat and Blazers are on their own cold streaks. Miami was starting to look real feisty again, kind of like the team we knew and grew to love in last year’s NBA Finals, but injuries and a string of tough competition has Miami now losers of 4 straight. Those two straight losses at home against Indiana must have particularly stung since their Eastern Conference rival could very well be a playoff contender here soon. Before those recent losses, Miami won 11 of 12 games through February and March. The Blazers just dropped 2 games in a row at home, one to the Mavericks and one to the Nets, which aren’t bad losses but Portland’s dependable offense has been anything but recently. Portland still sits comfortably at 6th in the Western Conference (and yes, playoff motivation is something we have to start to consider) but they’ll have to hope for some positive regression on offense to get back on the mend. Portland can’t exactly count on a defense that ranks 29th in adjusted efficiency on Hollinger’s NBA ratings (ESPN). This feels like a great spot to take an over. Miami plays at a methodical pace and they’re among the lowest scoring teams in the NBA, but Portland will come out aggressive tonight. The Blazers know that if they want to get off the schneid they have to overwhelm the Heat with their high-percentage shooting and dimes from beyond the arc. Insert Damian Lillard. I really like the Blazers’ star to have a big game. The player-prop for his total points is set at 29.5– I’d go over. The Heat could win this game but they’re still contending with injuries and I expect the Portland offense to play fired up and push this total over tonight. I’ll also put 1 unit on the Blazers, a team that’s 8-4 ATS as away underdogs. Cha ching!

Lean, Knicks -3 (-110): This is not a play for me, but the Knicks were really impressive against the Wizards 2 nights ago. I called it and we all cashed on it Tuesday night, by the way. The Knicks were stifling on defense, forcing Washington into difficult shots and a ton of turnovers, and they took full advantage of the Wizards’ porous front court (Randle dropped 37 points, another angle we predicted). Out of respect for Washington in a double-header, I’ll only lean New York, but I don’t see why it wouldn’t happen again.

Spurs +6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Will the Clippers stomp the Spurs for a second straight night in San Antonio? Meh. Maybe. Will Kawhi Leonard even play? I haven’t heard anything yet but this feels like an optimal spot for a late-breaking announcement that Kawhi is sitting out to “rest,” and probably 5 minutes before tip-off as always (eye roll). The long-time Spur was excellent last night. Kawhi went 9/12 from the field and dropped 25 points and 7 rebounds on the Spurs. Paul George added another 17, Morris bucketed 20, and LAC completely stymied San Antonio with an aggressive and disciplined defensive effort. LAC’s defensive ratings (Hollinger has them at 13th overall) are a bit skewed, too. This is easily a top 10 defense when everyone’s healthy and playing. The Clippers have elite defenders at every position and if they’re shooting well, 20-30 point wins will come easy. That being said, I think the pendulum swings back Thursday night. San Antonio turned the ball over 16 times Wednesday and only shot 32% from beyond the arc. They also got out-rebounded and fouled more than LAC. It’s likely the Clippers win again, especially if all of their stars play, but Greg Popovich and the Spurs are a proud bunch, albeit a young proud bunch, and I expect them to play gritty in the second leg of a back-to-back. San Antonio is also in the middle of a 7 game home stretch while the Clippers have to turn around and face Philly in two days, so they could be looking over their shoulder. Better spot, second game back, I’ll take a light unit on the Spurs.

Lakers under 105 points (-115), 1.5 units: The 76ers defense is for real. Even without Embiid, the way Philly locked down the Warriors in the 4th quarter Tuesday night was really impressive. Golden State was on a run– they outscored the Sixers 40-21 in the 3rd quarter and went ahead by 5 entering the 4th. Then, with Simmons back in the game, Philly completely turned the game around and it started with their defense. Allowing only 13 points in the 4th quarter and forcing turnovers and shot-clock violations throughout, the Warriors lost their momentum and ended up losing by 10 points (which cashed another Philly/under parlay for us). Now the Sixers travel to LA for 2 games against the city’s elite programs– LAL Thursday and then LAC on Saturday. I’ll look at a full game under for their game against LAC, but this feels like a good team under tonight. The Lakers are really struggling since Lebron left and somehow they’ll have to find a way to accumulate some wins with the OG down for at least a few weeks. Like I said in my article Tuesday, what you may not know about Lebron is that not only was he leading his team in points, but he led the Lakers in rebounds and assists, too. He was the integral piece to their offensive efficiency and it’s showing. The Lakers have averaged 99.6 ppg in their last 3 contests and Philadelphia’s 2nd ranked defense probably isn’t going to help. Furthermore, LAL is in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo; unfortunately that plays right into the hands of Philly. I like the total to fly under 216 but I like LAL’s total to go under even more. Eclipsing 25 points a quarter will be a tall task for the Lebron-less Lakers.

Well I won’t be betting on every NBA game tonight– that’s a long-term losing strategy that action junkies embrace– but that philosophy went well last night! I was 5-1 overall, including that Philly/over parlay, and feel like I should have gone 6-0 but Portland blew a great spot. The Blazers remind me of the Pelicans in that way– enigmatic stars, high-powered offense, but full of volatility. Either way, 5-1 is a damn good night. Onto Wednesday’s picks!

Pacers -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Well to say Indiana was sorely disappointed by their performance 2 nights ago would probably be a grand understatement. After riding high following 2 impressive wins at Miami, the Pacers traveled to Milwaukee and got punked by the Bucks. And that was without Giannis. That’s kind of the story of Indiana though, isn’t it? The Pacers, like the Knicks, beat up on low to mid-tier teams and I’m sure they’ll make the postseason. They’re full of potential and very balanced, owning the 18th best offense and 13th best defense according to Hollinger’s team ratings. Unfortunately, the Pacers are also a bad ATS team. Look at any angle and across the board, whether at home, following a loss or overall, they’re not great at covering the number. That being said, the Pistons are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games at Indianapolis. They’re also one of the worst teams in the league and we may be entering “white flag season;” I could see the Pistons just quitting in a lot of games. Detroit has a laundry list of injury designations, too. Besides TJ Warren, the Pacers are healthy and looking for a little comeback after 2 nights ago. A mere 2+ possession seems low when taking all that into consideration. I’m on Indy.

Upset Watch: Lean, Toronto wins (+130): If you think a line is sneaky, you’re probably right. I think Toronto could win this game tonight. The Raptors have now lost 9 straight and seem to be spiraling, right? Perhaps to the naked eye. But the Raptors have been devastated by COVID and random injuries. Now the entire team is healthy and they’re back at home. I think Denver is one of the NBA’s elite teams but this is an IDEAL spot for the Raptors. Watch for the upset here.

Celtics/Bucks over 230 (-110), 2 units: Lately the Bucks have been absolute lightning at home. In the past 5 games, they’ve averaged 125.4 ppg and it hasn’t been against bad defenses. They just dropped 140 at home against Indiana, WITHOUT Giannis, and recently scored 134 points against the Knicks. I’m not sure if Giannis is playing tonight but that doesn’t matter to me. Milwaukee averages 120 ppg, which is second only to the Nets, and Boston has really struggled on defense lately. Injuries to Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson haven’t helped. The Bucks also play at the 3rd quickest tempo in the league and they’re 4th in offensive efficiency. The Celtics defensive statistics are dropping by the day, now ranked 21st overall in adjusted efficiency (all of these stats courtesy of Hollinger’s team ratings on ESPN). I’ll be hammering this over tonight. Might be a good look to parlay a Bucks ML with the over, too.

Nets +6 First Half Only (-110), 1 unit: This is just too many points. Obviously I get why the line stands where it does, with Utah at home and Brooklyn off a nice win last night against Portland (and a brutal road schedule, too). But still, a double[digit line on Brooklyn as the dog? Naa. I don’t think Blake Griffin sitting out makes much of a difference and we’ve seen Harden and other playmakers take this team on their shoulders. Hell, Harden may be better without the other stars. He loves being in the spotlight. I’ll take the first half line instead of the full game since the Jazz, being the healthier and situationally advantaged team, could very well pull away later in the game. The Nets are too good on offense to not keep it close, though.

Mavericks -8 (-110), 1 unit: I’m a little gun-shy on this one so it’ll just be for one unit. Dallas is quietly on a tear right now. Winners of 7 of their last 10, the Mavericks are set up well for a playoff run. They’re also improving steadily, now ranking in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and showing some signs of life on defense, too. And Luka Doncic is closing in on becoming another MVP contender. The Slovenian star has averaged 35.5 points in his last 4 games and it seems the reappearance of Kristap Porzingis has really helped his output. The Timberwolves are at home for their next few games so they should be comfortable tonight, but the Mavericks have looked great. Not to mention– Minnesota is TERRIBLE on defense and very inconsistent on offense. I’ll put a unit on Dallas.

Well I feel pretty lucky that we survived at 2-2 last night after Giannis was a late scratch. But even without last year’s MVP the Bucks cruised past the Pacers. From everything I read and researched, John Wall was not supposed to play Monday so I feel a little betrayed there. It’s really important to try and get the best grasp you can on injuries before every game. No bad beat is worse than losing because of a late-scratch. You may sacrifice a sharper line but at least you avoid that shit. Oh and pro tip: never trust ESPN for an injury report. Okay, I have a bet on every single game tonight– onto today’s picks!

Nuggets -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I find no reason to not bet on Denver here. Orlando is in disarray. Aaron Gordon is asking for a trade, they’re 2nd worst in the NBA in points per game and bottom third in defensive efficiency, and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 games (how they beat Brooklyn the other night, I still don’t understand). Orlando feels like a team on the verge of giving up as their season slips away (which is an angle we’ll want to watch for in the next 2 months before the playoffs). Denver has had blips but they’ve won 8 of their last 10 games, they’re all healthy, and they’re 9-6 ATS as away favorites, which is a pretty impressive record. Orlando is by far the inferior opponent and this line should probably be closer to 9 or 10. I’m on the Nuggets.

Pelicans -6 (-110), 1 unit: Welp, needless to say, this isn’t a great setup for the Lakers. But there won’t be many ideal setups for ol’ LAL in the weeks to come. Without Anthony Davis and now without Lebron James, it’s easy to see how much they struggle. Of course pundits and fans love to discredit the effect Lebron has on a team, but not only does the 6’8″ future hall of famer guide and direct LAL’s offense, he’s led his team in points, assists, AND rebounds up until this point. And they had the 2nd best record in the West… Talk about MVP status; it doesn’t get any more clear than that. But whatever, that’s not what we’re here to talk about. Two losses at Portland aside, the Pelicans seem to be improving. I always complain about how inconsistent New Orleans can be and in my opinion it has to do with pace. They play well in-rhythm, which is probably why they don’t fare well against really methodical teams with good defenses, but if they just maintained a fast tempo I think they’d see a lot more numbers in the win column. Anyway, I don’t think the Pelicans will have any issues tonight. Zion has been dominant and when Ingram is hitting shots, they’re a really tough offensive unit to stop. The Lakers will have to start devising ways to gain some wins without their stars, but the Pelicans are in a great spot. They just beat the mighty Nuggets, they’re at home, and they get 3 days rest before another home game against Denver on Friday. I think the woes continue for LAL here but out of respect for coach Lebron on the sidelines and New Orleans’ volatility, I’ll keep it to one unit.

Knicks -2.5 (-110), 2 units: Defense still matters in the association, at least if you ask the Knicks. The NBA doesn’t like to reward great defensive players. It’s not sexy. Gone are the days of Ewing and Barkley and the ultra-aggressive Pistons who literally had players terrified to drive into their front court. Nope. Now it’s all rainbow shots and flair and even the big men of the NBA play with a flamboyant moxie. Good for them. Julius Randle ain’t having that. The NBA All-Star and spark plug for the NY Knicks is as tough and stout as it gets on defense (and he can shoot, too). I really like this matchup for New York. Look at any of the stats and you’ll see what I mean– the Wizards CANNOT play defense. And despite what some other stats might say, NY has an effective enough offense to keep up with Washington. But will they have to keep up? I don’t think so. NY should slow down the pace and frustrate Washington’s offense all night. The Knicks are coming off a few frustrating losses to elite teams, as tends to be the pattern, but they make a living beating teams like the Wizards. It’s probably why they’ll earn a playoff bid this year and I see them taking advantage of a game that I’m sure they feel they need to win. The Knicks are 6-2 ATS at home as a favorite– count on them going 7-2 tonight.

Suns/Heat under 215.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two more teams that play defense, eh? The Suns are rated #7 and Miami is rated #5 in adjusted defense and doesn’t this just feel like one of those hard-knock, old-school games? I think it’ll be a struggle for either team to find an easy shot all night. Miami should be fired up after blowing 2 straight home games to the Pacers. Indiana is tough but the way they controlled and manipulated the game’s pace was pretty shocking to watch. That’s usually how the Heat prefer to flex. Either way, when Miami is motivated that usually means an even feistier clamp-down defensive effort. The Heat only average 106 ppg, which is among the lowest in the NBA, but they don’t really need to score much more than that. They hold teams to 107.6 ppg and run at one of the slowest paces of any team, which tends to frustrate and throw off even the most effective offenses. Phoenix plays even slower (ranked 27th in the NBA) than Miami and they’re completely healthy coming into this contest. This should be a testy, methodical game and I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t hit 200 points. I’ll take a shot at the under.

Blazers -3.5 (-110), 2 units: What on earth happened to Portland two nights ago against Dallas? That was weird. The Blazers, at home, really sank into oblivion in the second half of Sunday’s game. Take a look at the game-flow chart on ESPN and you’ll see what I mean. In a game that should have soared to the over, Lillard was horrible from the field (7/16), which is something you rarely see, and the Blazers somehow only managed to score 15 points in the 3rd quarter and 23 points in the 4th quarter. For those who didn’t major in accounting, that’s a grand total of 38 points in the second half–insert mind blown emoji. Portland is 10th in the league in points per game (114.5) and they rank 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team stats. In short, we should see some significant differences in tonight’s game against Brooklyn. And I really like the Portland side Tuesday. The Nets will be without Kyrie tonight (and continue to be without Kevin Durant) and tomorrow they have to turn around and face the Western Conference leading Utah Jazz. Not an easy path for Brooklyn. Despite how well the Nets have played, this is a bad spot and situation for the Eastern giant and the Blazers should be plenty more motivated tonight. I’m all over Portland.

Parlay- Sixers win and Game under 217, 1 unit to win 2 units: The line at -3.5 for Philadelphia is a little fishy but I feel comfortable taking the money-line. I’ll make it into a parlay with the under since I really like both angles. There’s a huge disparity in health and talent in this game tonight. Not shockingly, the Golden State offense doesn’t look the same without Steph Curry. James Wiseman was just upgraded to probable, so that’s good news for Golden State, but the front court won’t be a match for an improved Dwight Howard and a fresh Ben Simmons back in the lineup. Philly is on a nice 8-3 ATS run and they’ve won 8 of their last 9 games, mostly without Joel Embiid. It really shows Philly’s depth too; Tobias Harris has stepped up big time and is averaging 24.2 ppg in the last 5 contests. If the Warriors have a chance, it’s with their 6th rated defense (Hollinger Stats), which quietly has played above expectations throughout the season. Draymond, who today declared he’s the best defensive player of all time, is certainly a part of that, but Kerr schemes well and knows how to use Golden State’s bigger bodies. I think this game will be closer than we think, but Philly has the #2 rated defense against a hurt and struggling Warriors offense, not to mention much more capable skill-players. The Sixers have also now won 4 games in a row away from Wells Fargo– so much for not being a good road team. I love this parlay for a light double-unit win.