Smyly has allowed 9 runs in his first 2 starts this season. Limited sample size, but ARI is batting .382 and Slugging .765 vs Smyly (13 for 34, 3 HR)
Smyly is a slow starter. He has a career 4.71 ERA in the 1st half of the season vs a .345 ERA in the 2nd half of the season.
Ari has scored 4 or more in 7 of their last 8 games
Update #3 10:52 am
MLB
Washington at NY Mets 4:05
Ross vs Stroman
Pick: Mets Ov 4 (-120) LEAN
Saw some 4.5 at books. Grabbed this at 4 at FanDuel for Push Protection in the event the Mets only get 4. A lot of numbers for Mets against Ross but only a LEAN with my confidence not quite there with NY just yet.
Ross 6.41 ERA last 5 starts vs NYM
Ross 5.73 ERA career vs Mets
Ross has allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 starts vs NYM
NYM batting .458, .771 SLG vs Ross
Update #3 10:35 am
MLB Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs 2:20
Peralta vs Alzolay
Pick Options
MIL F5 -112 LEAN
MIL Ov 3.5 (-124) LEAN
Milwaukee has gotten to Alzolay twice this season.
Alzolay 6:10 ERA in 2 starts vs MIL
Alzolay 6.14 ERA last 7 starts
Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of last 7 starts by Alzolay
Peralta 2-1, 3.21 ERA last 3 vs Cubs
Peralta allowed 1 run in 2 starts vs Cubs this season
Cubs batters hitting .177, 11 for 62 vs Peralta
Update # 2 9:54 am
MLB Plays Added
MLB
CIN at STL 2:15
Miley vs Gant
Pick: STL Ov 3.5 Medium
Pick: STL -121 LEAN
CIN 4-9 last 13 at STL
STL batting .306 vs LHP last 10 games
I have been waiting for Miley to get hit and Cleveland got him for 4 runs in his last start. The STL roster is batting .346 in 76 ABs vs Miley. Goldschmidt and DeJong are slugging over .600 vs Miley. The Reds bullpen has an ERA of 6.25 the last 10 games.
This game should be a solid one but I do not understand the line move to the under here. We have some nice weather at 65 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 MPH. Joe Ross is pitching for the Nats sporting a bad 6.03 FIP so far this season and he had a 4.59 in 2020. Marcus Stroman is pitching for the Mets and he has been great so far with a 3.25 FIP but I also expect regression here at some point being that he is about a 3.7 lifetime FIP respectively. The Mets have a great bullpen ranking 3rd in FIP but the Nats have a pretty bad bullpen ranking 23rd respectively. I could see some points for especially the Mets and I also could see them get some margin here. The Mets are certainly the better hitting team so laying the points, taking the spread and taking the over.
NY Mets -177 – 1.5 star NY Mets -1.5 +110 – 1.5 star Over 8 – 2 star
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs -110 O/U 9
The Chicago Cubs scored a ton of runs yesterday winning 15-2 against the Brewers. History isn’t kind to the Cubs when this happenes. Since 2017, when the Cubs have won by a margin of 5+ runs and the team they are playing has lost by a margin of 5+ runs, the Cubs only win 41.5% of the time. Brewers Pitcher Freddy Peralta has already faced the Cubs twice allowing only 1 run in 11 innings pitched and Cubs Pitcher Albert Alzolay has faced the Brewers twice against Peralta allowing 7 runs in 10 innings. The Brewers bounce back.
There is a good chance we will se a submission this fight. Jimmy Crute is a young and hungry 28 year old and his 11 wins were by 5Kos, 4 Submissions and 3 decisions. He only has 1 loss by submission. Anthony Smith is a seasoned fighter at 32 years old with 34 wins and 16 losses. He only went to decision 5 times in his career or 1/8 of his fights. Smith loses mainly by KO at 9 times in his career, but he also has been submitted 4 times himself. When Smith wins its 18 Kos and 13 submissions and only 2 decisions. Both of these fighters have a good ground game but Crute is the better technical fighter landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute to Allen’s 2.94. Crute also will take you down at 4.33 take downs per 15 minutes to Allen’s .49. Now some of these stats are skewed due to Allen being in the UFC much longer since 2016 but the deviation here is still significant. The Odds slightly say at -145 that the fight isn’t going to go to decision, but if it happens to go to decision I think Crute wins due to his technical fighting and take down advantage for scoring points. Anthony Smith hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2018 and has went 6 fights since then. I think if he wins, it would definitely be by submission. Smith could win this fight if he catches Crute in a compromising situation. I think the best play is to take Crute for the win but also take both fighters to win by submission at +700 each for a total of about 2/5ths of your Crute bet. This way, you are up 1 unit if Smith wins by Submission and you are up 4.5 Units if Crute wins by submission. If Crute just wins by decison or KO/TKO/DQ, then it is a wash. It Smith wins this fight by KO or Decision then I will tip my cap and eat the 3 units.
Anthony Smith by submission +700 – .5 star
Jimmy Crute by submission +700 – .5 star
Anthony Crute to win at -200 – 2 stars
Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang -210
This fight is interesting to me because I actually think that Rose Namajunas is underrated. Let’s face it, Weili has pretty much OWNED the straw weight class at an amazing 20-1 record. The only fight that she has ever lost was her first one back in China in 2013 which we really can not count against her. The interesting thing to me is that even though fighters of this weight usually go to decision, both of these fighters fights usually end before that. Out of Weile’s 21 fights, there has only been 4 decisions and there has been 5 decisions out of 13 fights for Rose’s bouts. In saying this, I really do not see a ton of weakness for Weili and she usually controls all of her fights. I think Weili wins but I also think that it very much could be within the distance. I’ll grab Zhang within the distance at +195
Zhang within the distance +195 – 1 star
Karl Roberson vs Brendan Allen -155
This fight is another interesting one to me because it also has submission written all over it. Karl Roberson is 9-3 and his only losses where him getting submitted 3 times. He seems to get caught rather easily. Most of his wins were by submission as well but I think he is stepping up to a better fighter in Brendan Allen. Allen is 15-4 with 5 KOs, 8 Submissions and 2 decisions. I am going to take a shot that Allen catches Roberson in the ground game wide open. The odds kinda tell you that it is quite plausible being only +175
Brendon Allen to win by Submission +175 – 1 star premium shared
I’ll bet you are sick and tired about hearing about the Red Sox aren’t you? Well too bad because we have to do it one more time here. We have 2 lefties facing off against each other at the helm with Boston’s Martin Perez with a 4.27 FIP so far this year against Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi with a 4.25 FIP. Yusei had the better 2020 season but he was also in a much easier American League West division. I am going to keep this short and sweet. For me, there are two key things. For one, Boston hits better against lefties ranking 13th in WRC+ to Seattle’s 26th respectively. Two, Boston is the better hitting team ranking number 1 in WRC to Seattle’s 19th. Boston also has the better bullpen to add some fuel to the fire. I’m taking the Red Sox at home to bounce back from last night’s crumble.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson – Seriously Jets? I haven’t seen this kind of leadership out of someone who started as a true Freshman. Lawrence is the epitome of solid and I do not think that he had that great of an O-line or WRs last year. Lawrence knows when to take off running with the ball which is a quality that not many NFL quarterbacks possess. He also knows how to get down and avoid injury. His 6’6 frame allows him to see over the offensive line with ease. A 70% completion and a 24-5 TD/INT ratio on a shortened season was great. Lawrence has the highest ceiling, and more importantly, the highest floor in this draft.
Justin Fields, Ohio State – The NFL Pro-Day really said it all to me. 4.44 40 yard dash speed was amazing for a QB that can check down the ball. Justin can throw the ball accurately down field as well as hit the seams with precision. Fields has proven that he could take a beating and keep on ticking in that Clemson game. Let’s just hope these beatings do not continue unless it is done in the playoffs. A 70% completion last year with a 26-6 TD/INT ratio was fantastic.
Zach Wilson, BYU – The kid from BYU that wowed everybody. Zach had a 73.5 completion percentage and a 33-3 TD to interception ratio. Can’t argue with that. BYU had an absolutely amazing year and I still wonder that if they would have ended up beating Coastal Carolina, that they would have been a massive playoff disruptor. Zach is more of a traditional QB at 6’3 210lbs. I actually think that it would have fit him better to be taller. My biggest issue with the kid is that BYU only had a strength of schedule ranking 104th in the nation. Were they better than many power 5 teams? Yes but they haven’t had to face much adversity. Zach can be a very dangerous quarterback and I think that he makes it in the NFL, but I also think that he could end up as a backup if the team that he gets drafted by doesn’t take advantage of his skillset.
Mac Jones, QB Alabama – 77% 41/4 TD/INT. Are you kidding me? Ok, I know Alabama guys do not really turn out in the NFL, but I saw a lot of Joe Burrow in this guy last year, and Mac was able to make very quick decisions with some smooth check downs after the snap. Has he had the best of the best to play with? Well yes, but he still didn’t look flawed while he was out there. Mac performed at the highest level with the most pressure on the biggest stage. Lets hope the Bears don’t draft him so he doesn’t become ruined.
Kyle Trask, Florida – The kid’s a winner. He did everything that he could to try and beat Alabama but he just didn’t have the defense to do it. Did he have great pass catchers? Sure, but he also won some big games vs Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky. What helped bring Trask into my top 5 was his size at 6’5 240lbs, and his decision making in the pocket. Some cons against him are the fact that he was in a spread system in Florida and was somewhat scheme dependent. 68.9% completions with 43/8 TD/INT is fantastic.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M – Another 6’3 quarterback in this draft but what Kellen has over some of the guys that I have ranked over him is experience in a pro-style offense at Texas A&M. I must say that I whiffed on this team and thought that Mond didn’t have the confidence to step up to some of the teams that they have beaten. Mond played fantastic football and showed great poise beating Florida, LSU, at Auburn and North Carolina in their bowl game with ease. My only crack against Mond is that he had a little bit lower completion percentage of 63.3% and 19 touchdowns. Mond at least only had 3 interceptions so that’s good.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State – Finally we get to the FCS level quarterback that some have in their top 2 or 3. Ok, this whole Carsen Wentz thing has gotten out of hand in my opinion and I think that Lance is going to be a project. Let’s face it, North Dakota State is the best system in the FCS but it really isn’t a pro style offense. Lance produced a huge redshirt freshman season in 2019, completing 67 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also ran for 1,100 yards with 14 touchdowns on the ground. Trey Lance reminds me of Jordan Love who has a lot of upside but will need to be developed and coached.
Davis Mills, Stanford – Davis is another QB that could make some noise in the NFL. He stands 6’4 weighing in at 210 lbs. Mills quietly led the Cardinal to a nice 4-2 record last year with 5 of his 6 games all away from home. The good thing for Mills is that he was in a pro-style offense at Stanford and he completed over 65% of his passes over the last 2 years. His skill sets might translate well into NFL offenses, and with some improvement in making decisions in the pocket, he could be very dangerous for some teams.
Sam Ellinger, Texas – I am going to miss this kid playing Texas football. Sam was the best thing that this team has had over the last 4 years and he has the heart of a champion. Sam can take a big hit and he also can run the ball. I think that if Texas could have kept a decent team around Sam without losing guys to the NFL, injuries and transfers, his draft stock could have been a lot higher. Sam has a nice 6’3 frame at 230lbs. His completion percentage dipped a bit from 65% to 60% last year but he had very nice performances against Oklahoma and Iowa State only losing those games by single digits. Sam was also a big part in beating Oklahoma State last year and ruining their playoff dreams. If Sam can improve as a pocket passer, he will be a very interesting player in the NFL.
Ian Book, Notre Dame – Who’s Wheaties did this kid piss in to be projected to not get drafted by many of these analysts. The kid only helped make Notre Dame extremely relevant over the past few years and he has huge wins vs Clemson and North Carolina. When Book hit the post season games, Clemson and Alabama’s great defensive play certainly didn’t help him much being that he was under pressure most of the game, but the real reason why he has dropped so much in this draft is his size at 6’0 212 lbs and his flat footed speed. Ian’s 65% completion percentage and 15/3 TD/Int ratio looks very good on paper but he did have an easier ACC schedule. One thing that I noticed when watching Ian is that he can throw the seam route, which is very important in the NFL, and he can check down to his other pass catching receivers. Ian came from a pro-style offense which should translate very well in the league. I think that Ian definitely has a low floor in the NFL being that he is so small but he also has a high ceiling. Ian is a leader and he has proved it on the field many times over. I remember another QB his size that came out of Purdue that had a similar skill set and talent level. His name was Drew Breese.
We have a great show for you today! Cub Fan Danny @CubFanDanny is back to break down UFC 261 Jorge Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman with some great info and free plays. First, Kiev O’Neil flies solo to go over our mock draft! What do teams need? Who do we think that they will pick and who do we think that they should pick? Then, Cub fan Danny comes on to break down some of the big fights for this pay per view event. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “Theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Remember when many of us thought that the Yankees were the team to beat in the American League? Well here we are 3 weeks into the season and NY is dead last at 6-11. Now you really can’t blame the pitching here because the Yanks are number 1 in Bullpen ERA at 2.28 and number 2 in FIP at 3.02. It’s the hitting that ranks 28th in WRC+ and dead last in OPS. Now Cleveland was the worst hitting team in baseball last year and there was some slight improvement this year putting the Indians at ranking 23rd in WRC+, but I have to think that there won’t be much improvement from there. It is a very windy day in Cleveland and the direction is right into the right field foul territory. The game time temperature is a brisk 45 degrees. I think that this total is a bit high for what these teams have showed thus far juxtaposed with nature’s grave conditions. Aaron Civale is a solid pitcher with a decent ERA of 2.18 thus far in 2021. His FIP could be better but it isn’t terrible at 4.3. Domingo German has started out bad this year, but I imagine that the pressure must be on and he is due for some positive regression. Grabbing the under.
I’m writing this on a plane with a Bloody Mary beside my laptop so, things are in full bachelor party mode as I cruise south (not mad about it). Not my best showing yesterday but we’ll try to make up for it here on a thirsty Thursday. Onto my picks!
Suns -3 (-115), 1.15 units: At first glance you would think this is a better spot for Boston. Off a hard-fought win last night in Philly, where the Suns once again proved how elite and how resilient they are, Phoenix has to turn around only 24 hours later and face a Celtics team that’s looked much better the past 2 weeks. And Boston is at home. Advantage Boston, right? I don’t see it that way. Firstly, the Suns are the considerably better team. They now sit at top 6 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they could edge out the Jazz as the #1 seed in the playoffs if they continue playing at this level. They’re also healthy and they’ll get a rare 3 day rest after tonight’s game. The Celtics have to turn around and travel to the Barclays Center tomorrow night to face the Nets– it’s absolutely reasonable to imagine they’re looking ahead and more concerned about that game. With mounting injuries and uncertainties heading into tonight for the home team, I have to take Phoenix once again. If this lose, so be it, but they’ve been a top 5 ATS team all year. Go Suns!
76ers +8 if all starters play (-110), 1.5 units: I called it on my podcast and the books agree– this could be a prime spot for the Bucks to boat-race the Eastern Conference leading Sixers. That being said this is way too many points, even off a back to back, if all the Sixers starters play. The latest updates are telling me that Simmons and Harris are probable and there are no signs that Embiid will sit, so I have to side with Philly. If this line drops to under 5, I’d be on Milwaukee.
Spurs -8 (-115), 1.5 units: There’s a reason why this line is inflated. San Antonio is in a great spot, at home, and they need wins to remain in the playoff hunt. The Spurs are 53.6% ATS after a loss and should blowout a vastly inferior team. Should.
Lakers +3.5 (-110), 2 units: The return of “The Brow” will make a big difference tonight. Besides their leader Lebron still sitting on the sidelines (although he’ll undoubtedly be coaching up and motivating his team), the Lakers are getting really healthy and that means they’ll be very dangerous from this point on, assuming they remain healthy. Anthony Davis brings an expectation of at least 20 points and more importantly, he’s an elite defender and shark at the rim. That will make things really difficult for Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas front court. LAL’s guards are more than capable of giving Luka a tough time, too. Look for an upset here tonight– this is a rejuvenated Lakers unit off 2 days of rest and with one of their stars back in the lineup, which means less pressure and more room for the supporting cast to over-perform. I’m all over LAL.
A lovely 2-1 day yesterday (probably a 3-0 day if Kawhi didn’t sit) adds to our 57% win rate in the association. Like I said in my MLB article today,please excuse the next 5 days of my posts— My bachelor party starts today until Sunday morning so my time will be more limited. I’ll still be putting out daily picks but the cards will be lighter and the write-ups will be packaged very tightly (shorter). It would be irresponsible for me to just put out picks if I can’t give it the same amount of attention. Onto today’s plays!
Suns -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I think this line isn’t completely wrong even if the 76ers are completely healthy. At home and with all their starters, I guess it would be closer to a pick-em or Philly -1, and in that case I’d like Phoenix even more. Still, the Suns are about as consistent and resilient as it gets in the NBA. They’re also one of the most balanced (6th in offensive efficiency, 5th in defensive efficiency). If Simmons and Harris both play this would be a tougher line to cover, but I have a feeling Simmons will sit again. To still be questionable due to an illness, with everything happening in a new COVID world, the odds are he’ll sit. It isn’t often you get Phoenix at a reduced line and most games end beyond one-possession leads. I’m on the Suns.
Bulls-2 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bulls aren’t a great team but they deserve more respect than this. Without Zach LaVine they don’t have as much depth but Vucevic has held Chicago on his broad shoulders in their last two wins. The Bulls habitually defeat inferior teams and this should be no different. Plus, they still have an outside shot at a playoff berth. Bet daaaaa Bulls.
Warriors/Wizards under 240.5 (-110), 1 unit: Usually I champion big totals like this but the Warriors have a sneaky good defense. The pace war (Washington is #1 and Golden State is #2 in tempo) worries me a bit, but I could see this being a chippy game with big superstars like Curry and Beal and Westbrook showing some extra zeal on defense. Again, these teams look in the mirror and they each other– they’re high tempo teams predicated on excellent shooting (which obviously doesn’t always work out, just check their records). Something has to give and I wouldn’t be shocked if one team threw a wrench in the others’ expectations and slowed the game down. I’ll take a surprising under, but just for 1 unit.
Lean, Jazz 11 (-110): Houston’s been a little feisty lately and they’re at home in a good spot, so this is just a lean. Towards the end of the season, as we are, hefty favorite lines aren’t as inconceivable to hit. This should be a blowout.
Hawks/Knicks under 218.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Atlanta is one of the more efficient offenses in the league (8th in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics) but that won’t scare New York. I want to take the Knicks side, of course, since they’ve now won 7 straight and even more importantly for us, they’ve covered 10 straight. Love me some Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, and their defense is an ode to the past and a lot of fun to watch. But Atlanta is no chump these days, either. The Hawks have quietly won 9 of their last 11 games and they look like a very complete team. Capela has been DOMINANT under the rim, averaging an insane 17.5 rebounds in his last 6 games. On the season he averages 14.5. That’s impressive shit. Instead of taking a side here, I think an under play is the better bet. This should be a testy game with a playoff feel and I think the Knicks can control the pace. If the first half flies over the total, look to hit a live under. New York loves to slow down the tempo and dominate defensively in the second halves of games.
Mavericks -10.5 (-110), 2 units: Great spot for Dallas here. Off two losses and in need of wins to stay in playoff contention, the Mavericks head home after 2 days of rest and they get a nice little gift in the Pistons. Normally a let-down angle would be part of a lopsided game like this but Dallas can’t risk a 3-game slide, especially not with an increasingly healthy Lakers squad visiting tomorrow and Saturday. This needs to be a get-right, feel-good game for Dallas and I expect max-effort in this contest. The Pistons, although tough at times, shouldn’t be able to keep up. We just need a tiny bit more than a simple double-digit win for this to hit, which feels very reasonable.
We have a fantastic show for you today! NFL insider Mr. Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL from the Ross Tucker family of podcasts, contributor for CBS Sports and Westwood One comes back to break down the NFL draft and of course some of the prop plays that the books have graciously put out for us. First, Kiev gets into his Top 10 pre-draft quarterback rankings and why they are important. Then, Kiev discusses why his rankings are different than some of the other scouts and experts. Next, Ross comes on and the guys get right into why this draft will be so volatile. Then, Ross and Kiev talk about position groups. Which positions are the strongest and deepest? Which positions are the weakest and the most top heavy? Next, we get into some of the draft props with some free plays and lots of speculation. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “Theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
