Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks (-2.5) 7:30pm est
The Wizards season continues to be rough as they come off another loss Sunday night to the Brooklyn Nets. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games. The problem continues to be the defense for Washington. They are allowing opponents to shoot 47.6% and average 120.0 points per game.
The Knicks are 2-3 in their last 5 games, and are coming off an overtime loss Sunday at home to the 76ers. The Knicks have somewhat of a different problem than the Wizards. The Knicks can’t score at the same clip, only averaging 104.7 points a game, but they can play defense. New York only gives up 104.8 points a game.
I expect this to be a very close game and is going to come down to even the final shot. Even though the Wizards have not even a single ounce of defense, they can score. With Russ starting to catch up to Beal’s play, the offense has looked even more proficient. Im going to lay the 2.5 points here on the Wizards, but if Washington fails to grab rebounds, look for Julius Randle to have a big night.
Yes yes, there’s still pro-basketball! And you can still win money off it, too. After a nice break yesterday (needed), we carry on to our winning ways in the association. Onto my Monday picks!
Spurs -5.5 (-110), 2 units and Hornets/Spurs under 224 (-105), 1 unit: This is perfect positioning for San Antonio and not so much for Charlotte. The Hornets enter Monday night on the second to last leg of a horrifically long road trip. As if losing LaMelo Ball for the season wasn’t enough, they just lost at Denver and Los Angeles twice (once per LA squad). So basically, they had a 3 game road stretch against the best teams in the Western Conference; no big deal. The Spurs just lost at Milwaukee, as most teams do, but head into tonight’s contest mostly healthy. DeMar DeRozan returned 3 nights ago to help a young San Antonio squad earn a victory over the Cavaliers. The Spurs, although relatively inexperienced, are a gifted unit that feeds on teams like the Hornets. The last game on Charlotte’s hellish road trip is 2 nights away against the Rockets– that’s a team they can handle– which makes me wonder how excited or motivated they’ll be tonight after losing their young gun. Without LaMelo facilitating, the 10th ranked San Antonio defense should be able to control the pace of the game at their home court. Fade the Hornets.
Raptors -9 (-110), 1 unit: Uhhmm.. why wouldn’t I take this bet? I’ll give some respect, if you want to call it that, to an extremely desperate Rockets team at home, but yea, it’s not looking good for Houston. The poor, hapless, aimless, pathetic Rockets have now lost 20 straight and they might be my worst take ever. Two months ago I proclaimed that Houston was a team I thought could really start surging. With Christian Wood in the lineup, they were playing stifling defense and effective offense and went on a nice little run that found them at 11-10 overall. I liked them as a sleeper without James Harden, something I thought could revitalize the team. Things didn’t work out that way. Now the Rockets head into tonight without John Wall and Victor Oladipo. Even with their two stars playing, they suck on offense. They’re last-place adjusted offense rating on Hollinger’s team statistics speaks to that reality. Toronto has lost 8 in a row themselves but much of that was because of the almighty COVID-effect. The Raptors are getting healthy and look to avenge a bad loss against Cleveland. Take the Raptors to start finding a rhythm and cover this number.
Lean, Grizzlies -2 (-110): This is a watch and observe game for me but, in short, the Grizzlies are a solid, ascending squad at home and the Celtics look lost, once again. I’m not sure what’s going on in Boston but I damn sure don’t want to bet their side.
Bucks -5 (-110), 1.5 units: Chris LaVert seems to have revitalized the Pacers, even if he’s not playing his best ball just yet. Indiana’s two recent wins against a burgeoning Heat team, in Miami, was really impressive. Meanwhile, the Bucks are white hot and undefeated since the All-Star break, although they’re only 2-3 ATS. But that doesn’t bother me since this feels like an incorrect and overly reduced line tonight. The Pacers continue to perform as the above-average (but not elite) team they are. Sabonis, Brogdon, LaVert and others bring a balanced and effective unit capable of staying in games against the majority of NBA teams. Until they contend with an elite. A fantastic stat from Clutch Points expands on this: Indiana hasn’t shown they can keep up with high-powered offensive teams. Against squads that average 115 or more points per game, the Pacers are a dreadful 1-9. The average margin of their nine losses is 10.8 points. We’ve seen this story before. The Bucks are extremely good on their home floor and they average 119.5 ppg. Although I like what Indiana is building and I’m not a big Bucks fan, I expect the home team to take care of business at Fiserv Forum. PS: Milwaukee is 16-5 straight up at home and as a home favorite, they’re 12-9 ATS (57%)– the Bucks are the right side.
Is the Pac 12 underrated this year? With Colorado’s blowout win over Georgetown and UCLAs run to 32 it might seem that way. One thing for sure is that Florida State is the best team in the ACC but what does that also mean? Kenpom has Colorado 10th in the nation while Florida State is ranked 16? Why is that? Well part of the reason was the Pac 12s recent success and the other part of that reason is Colorado looking great in their first game. Why is the spread giving Florida State a slight favorite roll? I think it is because people know what they know and Florida State is a much bigger basketball name than Colorado. I think that part of the reason that this spread isn’t bigger is that Colorado handled another very tall team in USC this year twice. Florida State has had a few bad losses this year but they are at least healthy in this spot and they know how to play fast. Part of the reason that Colorado’s success last game is that they shot 64% from three point land. I really can’t see that happening again against a taller team like the Semis. Florida State ranks 26th in defensive effective FG% while Colorado ranks 61st. In a game like this, I can’t see the Seminoles losing here after what happened to them in the ACC tournament. Florida State shoots the ball better at 54.3% effective FG and Colorado is at 52.8% effective FG. Gonna take the Semis.
Florida State -1.5 – 2 stars
Maryland vs Alabama -6 O/U 138.5
What did Maryland do to deserve to be a 6 point dog against Alabama here? Didn’t beating UCONN who was everyone’s darling (including my own) change the market’s mind on this? Maryland isn’t getting a ton of love here also due to the fact that they are 6-9 as a dog this year. For me, there are two things that I look at here in this matchup. Who had the tougher conference and who is the better shooting team? Well I think Maryland checks both of those boxes. Maryland shoots 52.8% effective FG to Alabama’s 51.3%. Alabama will find out that Maryland can pay a little defense as well from time to time. I am not saying that Alabama will necissarily lose this game, I am saying that this spread is a few points 2 high. I think Alabama -3.5 points would be the line that I would set.
Can the cinderella story continue for the Wildcats? Abilene Christian is coming off a major upset after defeating the Texas Longhorns in the final seconds of the first round 53-52. The defense is what works for the Wildcats. They only allow 60.7 points per game, which is 16th in the nation. Kolton Kohl is Abilene Christian’s leading scorer with 12.6 points per game. An issue for this team is their free throw shooting.
UCLA already has two wins this tournament under their belt. They are playing with some swagger on the court, showing that they belong there. They defeated Michigan State in the First Four, and then advanced to beat #6 seed BYU. Johnny Juzang and Jamie Jaquez are putting up terrific offensive numbers for UCLA this tournament.
Unfortunately for Abilene Christian their cinderella story ends today. They only put up 53 points in their first round matchup. They shot 29.9% from the field, and the offensive was abysmal. With the way UCLA is playing, and their ability to crash both the offensive and defensive boards, the Wildcats may be out of this game quick.
Marching on and marching through this CRAZY tournament– 3 cheers for Sister Jean!
UCLA -4.5 (-115), 2 units: I’m not going to overanalyze the Abilene-Christian upset against Texas. We knew that Abilene-Christian can play some defense, and they showed it, but Texas had an outrageous 23 turnovers in that game. Sure, that’s where the Wildcats thrive– they cause turnovers and capitalize off fast-break opportunities better than most teams in the country– but Texas played undisciplined, chaotic basketball. They also played into Abilene-Christian’s hands with an up-tempo style of play. The Wildcats shot a horrendous 29.9% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. And still, even with all their sloppy play, Texas only lost by a single point. I’m not that impressed by the Wildcats. UCLA is the perfect anecdote to Abilene’s pestering defense. The Bruins are one of the best teams in the nation at not turning over the ball. They play slow and calculated, which will annoy the excitable Wildcats, and their top 20 mid-range offense will chip away at their opponent, just like they did to BYU. UCLA is a tough team for fast-paced energy driven teams like Abilene-Christian, and the Bruins as only a 4.5 point favorite? Psh. That feels like a steal. Take UCLA with confidence.
Ohio wins (+180), Sprinkle: Sprinkle a little money on this one today and let’s keep the underdog alive in the second round. The most impressive thing about the Bobcats’ victory over Virginia was their relentlessness and ability to stay in that contest. It’s not news that the Cavaliers have one of the best defenses of the last decade. That’s no different this year, although we have seen UVA stumble a few times. But Tony Bennett is about as buttoned up and seasoned as it gets and you’d think the Cavaliers would be battle-tested enough to move on to the second round against a mid-tier Mid-American Conference team. Nope. Not only did Ohio win, but they played under par. Compared to their usual output on offense, a group that’s ranked #30 on KenPom and #51 on Haslametrics, the Bobcats didn’t play that spectacularly. They shot 42% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc, okay, but it was really eye-catching how they played in the front court. Ohio significantly out-rebounded Virginia by a count of 38-29. Creighton is a bigger team and a solid defense, but they’re certainly not better than Virginia. If Ohio can find their rhythm and convert from three-point land and create opportunities in the front court again, we could see yet another big upset today. I’ll be putting a lil dash of something on the Bobcats.
Michigan -5 (-110), 1 unit and Lean, Game Over 148 (-105): It feels like a relief to find two teams who actually played like we thought they would in the first round. LSU came into the tournament as one of the hotter teams in the country, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging 83 ppg in that same span. This is the offensive output we all knew they were capable of. Michigan enters today a little quiet… too quiet. The Wolverines were one of the more consistent and dominant teams in the nation leading up to March, before they blew 3 of their last 5 games to Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State. But like I said in Saturday’s article, I kind of like that for Michigan. Less pressure, under the radar, and locked in and focused (seemingly) to play best when it counts. The LSU Tigers have been a lightning bolt lately and I respect what they can do on offense–it’s partially why I favor the over here– but Michigan is rated top 7 on KenPom and top 9 on Haslametrics in offense and defense for a reason. The Wolverines should be able to slow down the Tigers, just enough, and use Hunter Dickinson to dominate the front court in frustrating fashion. Like we’ve seen from hyper-shooting offenses like Ohio State and Oklahoma State, good teams with exceptional defenses and big boys at the rim can really throw a wrench into their game-plans. This is that type of game. Michigan should cover and this feels like a 79-71 score to me, especially with LSU’s lackluster defense, so I’ll lean to the over.
Florida State -1 (-110), 3 units: This is a rare 3 unit play for me. Hear me out. When I knew this matchup between Colorado and Florida State was coming, I figured the line would be around 6 in favor of the Seminoles, but oh how recency-bias rattles our good senses. Let me make this clear– in sports betting, even if Florida State blows this and we lose a big bet, this is the RIGHT SIDE. If this was in regular season play, with the Buffaloes trudging through the Pac-12 and Florida State flexing its muscles in the ACC, this line would not be at -1 or where we see it now around -1.5 or -2. The Seminoles are easily the tallest, longest, and most talented team that Colorado has seen this year. The Pac-12, as we’re learning, may be better than people think. As I write this, Oregon and Oregon State and USC and Colorado are all still in the tournament. The Pac-12 has yet to lose in the postseason. We’re all impressed, and I’m not trying to disrespect the victory Colorado had against Georgetown in the first round game, nor am I discounting their success in the Pac-12. I just think there are levels here and we have to respect our research and analysis as well as those brighter than us at Haslametrics and KenPom etc. This is a unique spot where we get a discounted price to take a Seminoles team that many have in their Final Four. Check this out– in their first tournament game against UNC Greensboro, Florida State shot 0% from beyond the arc. That’s right, they went 0/9. They also committed 5 more turnovers and had 4 less steals, yet the Seminoles still beat a good Spartans’ team by 10 points. Florida State controls the front court, they’re an excellent shooting team, and Haslametrics rates their defense #1 in the nation at preventing field goal opportunities; Do you think Colorado will make 9 three-pointers in the first half against this team? I don’t. And on the flip side, the Seminoles are due for some significant positive regression from distance today. I know this tournament is full of surprises, but this is how you win money long-term and I’d take this bet 99 times out of 100. Go Noles.
Alabama -5.5 (-110), 1 unit and under 138.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a really tough game to bet. I really, really want to favor Maryland for my local friends (it’s also my fiancé’s alma mater) and because it’s a great story, but I find myself looking at the other side. Whenever I trust my better senses, they’re usually right. It’s reasonable to say that Maryland is the best defense Alabama has faced all season. Arkansas is good, for sure, but forgive me if I’m more impressed by what the Terps bring to the table. Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year Darryl Morsell played his tail off against the Huskies in the first round. The stats won’t show how aggressive and efficient he was on defense but he’s the anchor of the Terps’ and the centerpiece of a defense that seems to be improving every week. Holding a really good UConn team to only 54 points is not easy. Holding the Crimson Tide to 54 points is damn-near impossible. Alabama also has the #1 defense in the country, according to KenPom. While I think Maryland won’t be as shook by their ability after playing a full season in the Big 10, Alabama is a more complete team. What really scares me for the Terps is the way Alabama plays with tempo; I think it’s the difference Monday night. Rated the 9th fastest team in the country, the Crimson Tide know how to score in bunches and they’re one of the best in college hoops at utilizing fast-break opportunities. Maryland is young and athletic but if they don’t stay extremely disciplined on defense, this game could get out of hand. These two bets act as a natural hedge– if Maryland can stay within game’s reach, it’ll be because they’re limiting the Crimson Tide, but Alabama will fare well if they can assert their game-speed and offensive talent on the Terps. With a line under 2 possessions, I expect both bets to hit.
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Luka Garza (55) against the Illinois Fighting Illini Sunday, February 2, 2020 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. (Brian Ray/hawkeyesports.com)
Iowa (-5.0) vs Oregon 12:10pm est
Oregon comes into play not having played a game in 9 days. Their first round matchup was considered a no contest against VCU due to positive tests in VCU’s staff, therefore Oregon advanced. Oregon has shot 37.9% from behind the arc. The Ducks are being led by leading scorer Eugene Omoruyi with 16.7 points per game.
Iowa is coming off their first round win against #15 seed Grand Canyon. The score to that game does not show the Hawkeyes true dominance. Iowa dominated that whole game, and even led by 19 at one point. Iowa has the 2nd best offense in basketball and leads the nation in turnover rate.
Iowa is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games ATS. I think for Oregon getting a forced win and not being able to play in 9 days hurts them. They will not have the chance to shake those March Madness jitters. Luka Garza and Iowa will not give Oregon a chance to breathe either. They shook that first round nervousness off. Iowa would look even better than they did in Round 1.
27-12-1 for NCAA Tournament and NIT March Madness plays so far. We have a great show for you today! Kiev goes solo to recap a Cinderella filled tournament with some explanations and some games. We give out some plays for tonight as well as some leans. Should you have any questions, please contact us to break down a game for the sweet 16!
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I really do not understand why this spread is so low. North Texas is a solid team and all, but their win vs Purdue was more about Purdue missing most of their shots than North Texas being a great basketball team. Conference USA is a bit over-rated in my opinion and I think that their schools are more comparable to the Ohio Valley in skill level. North Texas turns the ball over 19.9% of the time while Villanova is second best in the league at 13.2%. I think that the coaching factor with Jay Write vs Grant McCasland is worth a few points to line as well. I am going to lay the points here with Nova.
Villanova -6 – 2 stars
Rutgers vs Houston -8 O/U 132
Houston is a very good team that plays great defense and they are coming into this game after blowing out Cleveland State. Rutgers has some talent and is pretty good all around. The only knock on Houston is that they don’t shoot the ball that well at only 51.4% effective FG and coming out of that conference, it should have been better. Rutgers isn’t a good shooting team either at 50% effective FG but at least they played in the Big 10 conference. Rutgers will most likely slow this game down and I think it could be close at the end. Grab the points.
With the guard and center duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, I don’t see the Ramblers continuing on to the Sweet 16 after this. Yes, Loyola plays a tough defense but Dosunmu’s playmaking ability, and ability to light up the scoreboard himself, it should be another easy win for Illinois.
Prediction: Illinois -6.5
Texas Tech (-2.0) vs Arkansas 6:10pm est
Arkansas is averaging 82.5 points per game while giving up 68.0. Texas Tech is scoring 72.8 a night and only giving up 53.0. This should be the best matchup of the day. With Mac McClung and Moses Moody on the court look for some big shots tonight. Arkansas is the money line dog though.
Prediction: Arkansas +110
Florida (-9.0) vs Oral Roberts 7:45pm est
The #15 seed Oral Roberts pulled off the shocking upset in the first round against the Ohio State Buckeyes. The #7 seed Florida Gators barely survived in OT against Virginia Tech. This won’t be the case here. Florida coming out of the SEC is used to playing hard game night in and night out. That one win for Oral Roberts was a championship win for them, they are going to be way too starstruck. Look for Tre Mann and Florida to end this one early and make a statement.
What a first round of the NCAA Tournament! Four big bracket busters in Oral Roberts, Ohio, North Texas and Abilene-Christian and a ton of close games gave us an entertaining first round. We’re 8-6 so far in free picks and hey I’ll take it– this year ain’t for the faint of heart! Let’s tackle some Midwest and South region picks for Sunday’s slate!
Loyola-Chicago/Illinois over 134 (-105), 1.5 units: This line may come down a tad so maybe it’s best to wait, but I’ll go with an over here. Illinois is appropriately favored by 7.5 (I’d actually lean the Loyola-Chicago side), which tells me that the books expect Illinois to play with a good 1-3 possession lead throughout this contest. The white-hot Illini are a fast paced team, ranked 79 overall on KenPom in adjusted tempo. As we all should know by now, Sister Jean and the Ramblers rely on and have a gifted defense that showed its merit Friday against a really good offense in Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were without Moses Wright but GT was flexing a really effective offense leading up to the tournament, so that’s still an impressive feat by Loyola. I think it’s fair to say that Illinois is a different beast, though. Kofi Cockburn and the other stars aren’t sitting out this game and the Illini should push the pace in an effort to overwhelm the Ramblers. Retreating to a more methodical pace would only play into the hands of Loyola. The Ramblers won’t go down easy and I think they stay within distance, pushing this game over the total when the inevitable wave of free throws show up at the finale.
Lean, West Virginia -4 (-115): I’m reminded of a stat I included in my first round of Midwest picks on Friday: According to ESPN, the Mountaineers are 13-0 when they hold opposing teams to 71 points or fewer and 5-9 when opponents exceed 71 points. Hmm, can they prevent the surging Orangemen from getting to that mark today? I’m not so sure. It’s hard not to be impressed by what Syracuse has done lately. They dropped 78 on a very good San Diego St. defense and not including a loss against UVA in the ACC Tourney, the Orangemen have averaged 76 ppg in their last five contests. West Virginia has a spectacular offense but they’re not all that intimidating on defense. Syracuse got the tougher draw in the first round against San Diego St., whereas this is a decent step up in class for West Virginia. If Miles McBride has another big game for the Mountaineers, I think it’ll be night night for Syracuse, but that’s a big “if.” In the end, I think West Virginia is a the better all around team and they’re more battle-tested coming out of a very good Big-12 Conference. Also, Syracuse shot a ridiculous 55% from the field AND from the 3-point line in their first round game, as well as 85% from the FT line. That won’t happen again. I’ll lean to the WV side but a 4 point line feels about right. If the total was around 140 or so, I’d lock down an over but that’s sitting at 147 and it’s hard to dispute.
Rutgers +8 (-115), 1.5 units: Sure, the Cougars could blow out the Scarlet Knights here and everyone would sarcastically say “wowww, what an unpredictable outcome,” but if Rutgers presents like the Memphis Tigers today, and I think they will, then Houston “we may have a problem.” Like the Tigers, Rutgers has an exceptional defense and plays at a slow pace. The Scarlet Knights rank in the top-25 in three of our four major defensive field goal categories on Haslametrics; shot opportunities won’t come easy for the Cougars. Rutgers also won’t be intimidated by Houston. They’re playing in their first tournament in 30 years and coming off an impressive .500 record in the hyper-talented Big 10 Conference against teams like Iowa and Michigan and Illinois (i.e., the best teams in college basketball). Houston has had an incredible season in the American Athletic Conference and deserves to be favored, but not by this much. This is the first time all year that the Cougars will see this level of competition, in my opinion. Is Rutgers elite? Probably not, but they are as gritty and battle-tested as it gets. I’ll take the Scarlet Knights to cover.
Villanova -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: (queue the screeching noise) Pump on the breaks there, North Texas. The Mean Green of North Texas got a really impressive win over Purdue on Friday and they deserve to celebrate. And I bet they did. And while I don’t think the Big East is all that impressive this year, Villanova won’t make the same mistakes as Purdue. The Boilermakers didn’t look ready for the Tournament. North Texas controlled the pace of the game Friday, staying ahead for the majority of the game and hitting at a high percentage from the field and beyond the arc. Villanova looked like, well, Villanova. Public and bracket-busting-favorite Winthrop came into Friday’s matchup full of hopes and dreams, but it was Villanova who looked like a professional and elite team, just going about business as usual. The Wildcats forced a ton of high percentage shots with great play at the rim and then locked down on defense, holding the high-octane Winthrop offense to only 63 points and 36% from the field. The Wildcats only committed 6 turnovers all game and were extremely efficient on offense. It’s why I like Villanova, even without Gillespie, to go further than people think. Coach Jay Wright is as buttoned up and cerebral as any coach in the nation and has a knack for preparing his boys to play well through chaos. I think Villanova punks a good North Texas team today.
Oklahoma State -6 (-110), 2 units: Okay yea, maybe I’m overlooking something here (I don’t think I am), but this is way too much respect for Oregon State. The Beavers have surged to end the season and as winners of the Pac-12 Conference, they deserve some respect. I just don’t think the Pac-12 is very good. Oregon State’s win against Tennessee was more about Tennessee– the Volunteers have been a volatile team all year and really underperform at times. Liberty is a really good sleeper team and the Cowboys easily overcame a nice game from the Flames, even without Cade Cunningham doing much of anything in the first half. Nerves get the best of us, even if you’re a future NBA guard, but I don’t like the prospect of a reawakened Cade Cunningham for the Beavers in this late matchup on Sunday. One of the better angles you can look to wager on in a postseason environment is to bet on the teams with the best player on the court. Oregon State has a decent offense and average defense; the latter should cause huge issues here Sunday. The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the country and I only like them better after surviving their first contest against Liberty. They play at a very fast pace (32nd in the nation in tempo) and their defense has seen much better than Oregon State. Second game in, nerves aside, I think the Cowboys ROLL the Beavers at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
