Welp, a nice little ass kicking from MLB sends us to hump day (although the Reds game isn’t over yet); happy to get a little redemption today. Please excuse the next 5 days of my posts— My bachelor party starts today until Sunday morning so my time will be more limited. I’ll still be putting out daily NBA and MLB picks but the cards will be lighter and the write-ups will be packaged very tightly (shorter). It would be irresponsible for me to just put out picks if I can’t give it the same amount of attention. Anywho, onto today’s plays!
Marlins first 5 (-180), 1.8 units: This is an inflated line for a reason. Young gun Trevor Rogers takes the mound for Miami and he’s looked the part. His breaking ball is a work in progress but the 6’5″ 23 year old has a cannon for an arm and a 2.87 FIP in 2021 over 15 innings pitched. Miami, looking for revenge after last night’s tough loss against Baltimore, faces off against Orioles pitcher Bruce Zimmermann. Ol’ Bruce still has too many command issues for my liking, including a proclivity for allowing deep hits in the outfield. Give me the Marlins in the first half.
Tigers win Game 1 (-132), 1.5 units: Tyler Anderson has looked pretty awful thus far this season, giving up 19 hits and 3 homers in just 3 starts. Michael Fulmer and his 0.67 WHIP should be a good catalyst for a Detroit team that’s had a really tough schedule to this point and isn’t as bad as their record indicates. Against the volatile and struggling Pirates, I’ll take the Tigers 7/10 times in this situation, which means it’s an auto-bet.
Astros (-140), 2 units: Jose Urquidy hasn’t had a stellar start to this season but what he’s shown in recent past is nothing short of exceptional. His ability to limit homeruns this year is particularly noteworthy at only 0.56 per 9 innings over 3 starts– that’s a good thing for a game at Coors Field. Austin Gomber, on the other hand, is known for his “fly ball” pitching but that could quickly deteriorate against a hungry Astros team coming off a loss in the thin air of Denver. Give me the way better lineup, rotation, and overall team to bounce back Wednesday and get a victory on the road.
Twins/Athletics under 7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Minnesota vs Oakland displays two pitchers in Kenta Maeda and Frankie Montas that are due for some significant positive regression. I’d lean the Twins here, who have more consistent bats and I like Maeda more, but I think this is a great spot in low-altitude Oakland to chase two pitchers who are significantly better than what they’ve shown thus far. The books are daring us to take the over here– I’m happy to stiff-arm that and ride the under instead. Nice try, Joe Bookie.
The Celtics and 76ers– yikes. At least those overs cashed last night. Just 3 plays for me on a rather light NBA card. Onto the picks!
Knicks -5.5 (-115), 2 units: The Knicks are getting a little inflated line here and guess what– I AGREE with it. Charlotte is a tough team in their own right but the Knicks, especially at home, are not a team I’d want to face right now. New York continues to stifle opposing offenses, even good ones like Memphis, Dallas and New Orleans, and if they can’t completely stifle them they push the game into OT and then win. Julius Randle is to the Eastern Conference what Steph Curry is for the Western Conference right now, dominating and willing his team into the playoffs. During New York’s current 6 game win streak, Randle has averaged 30.6 ppg. He’s also led the Knicks in rebounding in 8 of their last 11 games. The Hornets aren’t built to defend or score on teams like the Knicks. Well-balanced but not especially good in any one category, Charlotte has struggled in April, losing 6 out of their last 10 contests and only recently ending a 4 game losing streak. After a nice win over Portland, the Hornets begin a short road trip at Madison Square Garden tonight, while the Knicks stay at home all week. I’ll take the Knicks to cover and overrun the Hornets in one that could get ugly. The Knicks have ALL the momentum.
Nets/Pelicans over 235, 1 unit: This is a huge number but it’s not high enough. Brooklyn is too small to deal with Zion and the Pelicans won’t have an answer for the perimeter shooting of Joe Harris and Landry Shamet. Kyrie doesn’t mind the limelight and he’ll look to improve his performance after that late-game debacle against Miami. With our luck he’ll announce he’s sitting out 5 minutes before tip-off, but neither of these clubs are good enough on defense to stop the other. And they both match up well offensively. This feels like a clear 240s+ so I have to put a unit on the over.
Clippers -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This has blowout written all over it. Watch out for game-time news on random players sitting, what else is new, but a Lillard-less Blazers team facing the Clippers, who have looked almost just as good without all their stars, is not a good recipe for Portland. The Blazers are at home and they have Denver coming to town tomorrow. The Clippers return home Wednesday to face Memphis. If Kawhi and Paul George play or even just one of them does, I like the Clippers side here.
Its nice to take a break from MLB. I enjoyed it muchly, thank you for asking. Now back to the grind; somehow we’re still pulling off a winning record overall at 32-26 since the start of the season. America’s past-time is a marathon not a sprint, so all we can do is keep trusting our numbers and experience. I’ll continue putting out less plays for lighter units until we see some semblance of patterns we can trust. Onto my plays:
Dodgers -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Is there a better play in baseball than siding with the Dodgers after a loss and with the better pitcher? Probably not. Marco Gonzalez brings an 8.22 ERA and 1.76 WHIP into this contest, allowing over 4 runs per start over 15 innings. LAD is still missing Cody Bellinger and could be missing Mookie Betts today, which we surely don’t love, but the Dodgers have proved how resilient and talent-heavy they are in recent past. I have no issue betting on them to surge ahead against an inferior team like Seattle, although the Mariners have looked very serviceable thus far. Julio Urias takes the mound for LAD, owning a 3.86 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. He’s certainly been hittable, allowing 3 runs per game over 3 starts and 18 innings pitched. While those numbers aren’t astounding, Julio has served as a consistent staple for his Dodgers over his 5 year career as a pro, rounding into his own in 2019 (2.49 ERA) and 2020 (3.27 ERA). In other words, I expect some positive regression for Urias. The Mariners are one of 2021’s surprises but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Early points by the home-team in game 1 and a solid showing from Seattle’s bullpen was enough to secure a win last night. Expect a bounce-back from the champs and a win by margin today. LAD also has the more rested bullpen.
Braves win (EVEN), 2 units: The Yankees have shown me no reason to believe that this is the game they’ll win. Every game is a “good spot” for them to circle back and reignite their season and they just haven’t done it. Now you’re giving me a clear pitching advantage in Charlie Morton (who’s played most of his career in the AL East) and an Atlanta lineup that’s finding their bats at even money? The inherent value is massive. Ronald Acuna Jr., who’s playing like a superhuman this year, managed to avoid the injury list but it’s unknown if he’ll play today. An abdominal strain can’t be fun to deal with in a hip-centric game like baseball, so he may be advised to rest. That’s a big loss if he does, but I still trust Morton over these ice cold Yankee hitters. Both teams had 2 days to rest so there’s no advantage there, although the Braves have the more rested bullpen. I’m on Atlanta.
Reds (-130), 1.5 units: This is a good spot for the Reds. Luis Castillo is consistent in the sense that he’s unpredictable.. if that makes sense. He has really impressive starts and then he gets blasted. And then he has another commanding outing, looking like an unhittable ace, and then he gets annihilated again. Since I started really paying attention to baseball a few years ago this is what I’ve seen and come to expect from Castillo– he’s a sterling young pitcher with a big arm and sky-high potential, and he also hasn’t figured out how to provide a consistent command just yet. Arizona’s bats have cooled off lately, dropping in batting average to 0.223, which is good for 19th overall in MLB. This feels like another “get right” setup for Castillo, who’s had a full week to rest and think about his rough day at San Francisco in his last start (7.04 ERA). Zac Gallen looked good in his first game back but he’s coming off a hairline fracture in his right forearm, something I can’t exactly get behind until I see more from the young aspiring ace. At home, and after losing their first series to Arizona, I’ll bank a W on Cincinnati.
New York Rangers @ New York Islanders 7:00pm est PICK (Islanders-115)
The thing about hockey and baseball, is they are both very streaky sports. Teams will find these runs where they are just going out every night, and managing to find these wins. In hockey, these win streaks typically cap out from 4-6 wins. And that’s what the Rangers find themselves into today. They are currently on a four game win, and are searching for the fifth win. Here is my typical saying, DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. The Rangers played a mediocre New Jersey team, and it is nothing to get too excited about. They beat a 14 win Devils team, and it is going to be very hard to go on the road here and beat a very good Islanders team. Mathew Barzal is having an absolute monster season. He has 38 points, 13 coming of goals. The Islanders should be able to pick up a win for the home crowd after being on the road their last three games.
Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres 6:30pm est PICK (Under 5.5)
This Buffalo Sabres team has consistently been able to hurt me when we go against them. And I have no idea how they do it. They are a bad team, they are the worst team in the NHL, yet they have messed things up dearly. Today is the day where we kind of get them back. Boston is a really good team, and is currently riding a four game winning streak. The Bruins are definitely contenders to be called the best defensive team in hockey. On the road here, and going up against a horrid Sabres team, it should be a struggle for goals in general. The Bruins defense has a major advantage here, and I think we can find a 3-1 game, and get our under.
Detroit Red Wings @ Dallas Stars 8:30pm est PICK (Stars -255)
I am not really a true fan of this spot here, but I do feel the Stars are a solid enough team to get rid of a the pestering Red Wings at home. It is laying some juice with the -255, but with Dallas chasing a playoff spot, the should find some more motivation at home to get the win. These two teams just played each other last night, and Dallas was able to secure the win in a shootout. With that being said, Dallas will most likely put Oettinger in the net, who truthfully has better stats than Khudobin back there. This will be the same story on the other side with Detroit, and they will most likely put a newer goalie back there tonight.
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans 7:30pm est PICK(Pelicans -2.5/Nets +2.5)
The New Orleans Pelicans is one of the most hardest teams to make a pick on. They easily posses the talent to be a 5 or 6 seed in the west, but sometimes they play down to the level of an 11 seed. Zion and Kyrie square off in New Orleans both looking to rebound after a loss their last outings. The Nets will most likely be without KD, and James Harden. This means Kyrie is going to have to show out for Brooklyn once again. This is the issue we manage to find with the Nets. If Kyrie is going 100%, and the Nets are losing, Nash will pull him. This should give this Pelicans team an easy matchup if Harden and KD both sit. This game can go either way depending on the starting lineups, so we will have to monitor it closely. If KD, and Harden play, or one of them with Kyrie, then the Nets will have enough scoring to dominate New Orleans. Do not pull the trigger early on this game! Watch the lineups as long as possible, and take the game whatever way based on the confirmed starting lineups.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees 6:35pm est PICK(Over 9)
The Yankees are playing bad. There is no other way to put it. They are batting on average .210 as a team with only 16 home runs. This is not the New York team were are used to seeing, and their record shows. They are currently riding a five game losing streak, and need their bats to wake up now. But here is the good news. Baseball is a marathon, and these players know it. Game 1 in a home series, against a solid team, is a good chance to flip the script. Taillon and Morton are two pitchers here who could let the game get away quick. Taillon has given up three homers in eight innings pitched. The Yankees are looking to start a surge, so their offense could come alive in game 1.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies 7:05pm est PICK(Phillies-153)
Zack Wheeler is set to take the mound again in game 2 against the Giants. He is currently 1-2, and holds an ERA of 3.00. He will be facing Logan Webb, who is 0-1, with a 4.76 ERA. Zack Wheeler has shown signs the he is going to be the Phillies ace this year, he opened the season of going 2-0, and posting terrific numbers in those two starts. The Phillies were able to catch fire behind him as well, going 6-1 to start the season. They have since down cooled off, and are coming off a loss last night to the Giants, 2-0. It is hard to see the Phillies go down again to San Fransisco, especially after putting up a goose egg. The Phillies should be able to rally behind Wheeler, and get some runs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres 10:10pm est PICK (Padres-115)
Can it be any harder to watch a Padres game as a fan? They have been in every game this year, and very easily could be undefeated. Yes I said it undefeated, but they strand too many runners on base. In the opening series against the Dodgers, they failed to execute and get the runs in twice to win the game. It is hard to watch, but it is not as bad as it seems. The Padres are there, every night, in every game. If “Strand Diego” can manage to get those runners in that they constantly leave on base, they would be winning way more games. The Brewers pitching staff has been dominant, and it could be rough day for the Friars lineup, but the tide has to change eventually. Look for the Padres to start to break this trend of stranding runners on the base path.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels 9:30pm est PICK(Angels-210)
The Rangers were able to open this series with a win 6-4 in game 1. Texas has the innate ability to score, but majority of their runs only come in their wins. When Texas loses, they lose, and they will look bad doing it. They struggle to keep games close, and if it gets out of hand, their offensive becomes very one dimensional. With Shohei Ohtani on the bump, and Los Angeles seeking to even the series out, the Angels should be able to secure a home win in this spot.
Happy Monday, people! I’m releasing this article early so don’t forget to make sure that all the key players that we expect to be in these games are actually in. Kevin Durant was a big let-down yesterday, for example, although he did suit up and then leave in the first so maybe I’ll cut him some slack. I like favorites and overs today– onto my picks!
Celtics -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: I’m waiting for this consistent Celtics team to start disintegrating again so I’m trigger shy to bet too much. At home, especially if they keep playing the way they have been on defense, this line is a sneaky steal. The latest version we’ve seen of Boston is a far better unit than Chicago. And in the few areas that Chicago thrives, mainly in fast-break team offense, the new-look Boston defense should have plenty of answers. I think the Celtics win this by double digits.
76ers -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The Warriors were really impressive Saturday night against Boston, even in a loss. I don’t think a lot of people expected Golden State to stay within reach, smack-dab in the middle of a long road trip and with a big game against Philly on the horizon. But they did, and they nearly beat the surging Celtics. It was another huge performance from Curry and another solid showing from his supporting cast as they look to earn a playoff bid in mid-May. Kudos to them and as a fan of Curry on and off the court, I hope they do make it into the postseason. I don’t think is the game to help their chances. Like I said previously, Golden State is on the final 2 legs of a long, tiresome trip out East that ends Wednesday at the Wizards. That’ll be another chance for Curry to have a 40+ game I’m sure, but if anyone can slow down Steph and the Warriors, it’s the Sixers. Allowing the 7th fewest points per game and rated #2 overall according to Hollinger’s team ratings, the Sixers are also top 10 in offensive/defensive rebounding and 5th overall in rebound rate. That’s an area where the Warriors really struggle. Golden State is 26th in defensive rebounding, dead last in offensive rebounding and 29th overall in rebound ratio. Yikes. Of course when you have the perimeter ability of a Steph Curry, rebounds might not matter as much. But the front court dominance that Simmons, Embiid and other bench players like Dwight Howard consistently impose is really tough for smaller teams like Golden State to overcome. The Sixers are tall, tough, and sharks at the rim. I think it’s a fair assumption that Steph Curry won’t be completely stifled Monday night, but I do think the Sixers can slow him down. Their guards are pretty damn good on defense, too. Philadelphia has won 4 straight and after coming back from injury, MVP contender Joel Embiid has picked right up where he left off (he’s averaging 34.5 points during their latest win streak). To many this line may feel inflated and you’re tempted to bet Golden State. To me it’s a forecast of exactly what this game will be– an impressive win by a good margin for the home team Sixers.
Suns/Bucks over 233.5 (-110), 1.5 units: If the same version of the Bucks shows up that we saw Saturday against the Grizzlies, it’ll be a quick “night night” for Milwaukee at home in this one. The Phoenix Suns are about as versatile and resilient as an NBA team gets. Their stars don’t “rest,” they’re barely ever injured (knock on wood) and they can win in a variety of different ways. Phoenix excels on both offense and defense, owning a top 5 rating in defensive efficiency and top 6 rating in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics. Talk about a complete team. Milwaukee is right there with them with the 5th best offense and 8th best defense and as you know because I mention it all the time in these posts, they play at a really fast pace (4th overall in tempo). Lately, Suns’ totals have been dependent on who their opponent is. If they face high tempo teams (Sacramento, Houston, Washington), the totals have been really high. When they face slower-paced teams (Miami, New York, Charlotte), the totals have been really low. Enter Milwaukee. This should be a great battle between two legit heavyweights and as much as I want to pick the Suns, I can’t do it after what I saw from Milwaukee Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked like a totally different team and completely dominated this game. A healthy Giannis certainly helps. The Bucks will push the pace and as usual, the Suns will adapt and they won’t be left behind. Love the over.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 227 (-110), 2 units: Another big clash between two probable playoff teams headlines Monday night, and it’s another over play for me. Lately, Grizzlies games are producing huge scores. Over their last 10 games, Grizzlies totals have averaged 232.5 points. And not all those games have been against fast-paced high-scoring teams, either. That includes contests against Atlanta, Miami, New York, and Indiana. Memphis won 7 out of those 10 matchups, by the way, so they usually contributed the higher number in that 232.5 average. This makes a good recipe for an over since the Nuggets aren’t any less prolific on the offensive end. At 4th overall in points per game (115.3) and rated 4th in offensive efficiency, the Nuggets are one of the most consistent offensive teams in the association. And for what it’s worth, their first two games without Jamal Murray hasn’t slowed them down (they scored 123 and 128 points). In what should be another intriguing matchup between two very good teams, I’d rather bet on the over.
A fine 2-2 day Saturday winning 1 unit overall, although the Bucks really let a lot of us down last night. That was an ideal spot and just, wow. Kudos to the Grizzlies– they’re a dangerous team when they’re in-sync. Onto Sunday’s picks!
Pelicans/Knicks over 217.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We won last time when these two teams clashed when we chose the Knicks to surprise the Pelicans on the road. Not much of a surprise to me– the Knicks should win against teams like the Pelicans, i.e. teams that have virtually no defense. When the Knicks can prevail on both offense and defense, and I think they will again today, they’re hard to beat. New Orleans is playing faster and the combo of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson can be a real load to stop for 48 minutes. Steven Adams does a fantastic job rebounding and getting easy buckets, too. New York’s suffocating defense should limit the output of the Pelicans but, like their last contest, the Pelicans will attempt to push the pace of the game to gain an edge. Because I expect the Knicks to thrive on offense once again and because New Orleans’ only chance is to try and overwhelm New York on offense, this is an over play for me.
Nets -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I love the Heat and internal bias doesn’t want me to bet against them in too many spots. If they get into the playoffs, they’ll be very feisty again. This is more about the Nets, though. Like we saw in their late-game flex against Charlotte, the combination of Durant and Kyrie is really hard to stop. And although I hate to admit it, Irving’s approach is starting to impress me. Like Steph Curry did for the juggernaut Warrior teams of the recent past, Irving seems content to let Durant shine as the superstar. Totaling only 12 points, Kyrie had 6 assists and made clutch buckets when called upon in their win against the Hornets 2 nights ago. Joe Harris benefited from the Durant/Irving distraction and scored 26 on his own. And that’s what teams will have to deal with throughout May and June– a potpourri of options from a Brooklyn team that’s built on an ability to surge offensively whenever they need to on whoever they want to. Pretty scary thought. Historically, teams with a defense as bad as Brooklyn (19th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in points allowed) don’t win championships. They do win plenty of regular season games, though. Jimmy Butler is a little banged up and the Heat are really struggling to score lately, averaging 104 ppg in their last 5 contests. That’s not enough to win in the modern NBA and it won’t be enough today against Brooklyn. I’m on the Nets to cover.
Mavericks over 119.5 points (-110), 2 units: Dallas is gaining steam as the season wanes on but they haven’t done it at home lately. The Mavericks have lost 3 in a row at the American Airlines Center and I love that for this bet today. Sacramento has the worst defense in the league, allowing the most points per game and their dead-last in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team metrics. Like my play on the Nets 2 nights ago, this is the perfect setup for a healthy Mavericks team to put on a show, get a victory in front of home fans, and then get a rare 2 nights/3 days of rest before hosting lowly Detroit. Bet on the Mavericks to show up big in a prime spot today. Might want to consider a Luka prop, too.
Clippers -10 (-110), 1.5 units: Don’t be deterred by the Timberwolves recent win against Miami. The Heat are banged up and they were on a hellish road stretch. If anything, that rare win is more reason to bet on Minnesota not covering today. This line, although high, still isn’t accurate. The Clippers winning this by double digits is far more likely than a -110 juice. With or without Kawhi, Paul George is really starting to shine– scoring at least 33 points in 4 out of his last 7 games. He’ll lead the Clippers tonight at the Staples Center, where they crushed the Timberwolves by a 23 point margin in their last matchup. Make sure LAC isn’t playing their C team and confidently hammer this line.
3-1 in MLB plays Saturday and on the prowl for more. I have only 3 plays today as I try to demonstrate judiciousness here (it’s tough with all the opportunity on the board) but we’re not action junkies, we’re sharp bettors right? Right. Let’s keep winning!
Reds (+140), 1.5 units: It’s never fun going against Shane Bieber but what’s not to like about the Wade Miley show thus far? Miley has been one of the most impressive and dominant pitchers this short season, striking out 9 hitters and only allowing 4 hits over 11 innings and 2 starts on the mound. And he hasn’t allowed a single run. Am I a little concerned that the sample size could be misleading, especially since those 2 performances came against the Pirates and Giants? Sure. But I also trust the Cincinnati bats way more than Cleveland’s. The Indians are still a bottom dweller in both batting average and runs per game. Under 3.5 runs in the first 5 is a good bet, too. I trust the Reds to eke out another win against Cleveland’s ace behind a surging and confident Wade Miley. They’ve looked like the clear better club thus far.
Mets/Rockies over 6 (-105) in the first 5 innings, 1 unit: It’ll be a sunny, mild day in the Mile-High City as chillier weather blows East and two very hittable pitchers take the mound at Coors Field. Just like we saw in game 2 of this series last night, the Rockies are aware that their talented bats can and need to take advantage of Mets’ pitchers not named deGrom. Their offense showed up with 7 runs in the first 5 innings and that’s all they needed to tie the series. Marcus Stroman has looked really good thus far but even the best in this game get bested at Coors. Just ask Clayton Kershaw. Stroman is also due a little negative regression and this is a great spot to lose some touch. Antonio Senzatela brings 3 starts and a 7.07 ERA to the dirt today. Of course 2 of those starts were against the Dodgers so that’s partially why he’s struggled. A rare home command against the Diamondbacks helped Senzatela overall numbers, but New York is also in a great position for positive regression on offense. The Mets are a top 10 team in batting average but, like the Nats, can’t seem to convert that into points. Expect more points today from both of these ballclubs. I like it at reduced juice in the first 5.
Athletics win (-144), 2 units: I’m gonna ride the A-Train while it lasts and I think this is a good pitching battle to favor Oakland. The Athletics look like a different team since the start of the season. After an ugly 7 out of 8 losses to kick off 2021, the Athletics have now won 7 straight games. During those first 8 games, their team ERA was a lousy 7.91. During the current unbeaten streak, A’s starters are 5-0 with an average ERA of 2.63– that’s quite an improvement. Offensive production and its associate numbers are on the rise too as the Athletics are slugging and turning opportunities into points with big homeruns and excellent base-running. Matthew Boyd mans the dirt today for Detroit and he’s looked the part of an ace so far, commanding a 1.86 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 19.1 innings. He had great games against Cleveland and Houston but got hit on and a bit exposed against the surging Twins. Chris Bassitt is up for Oakland and he’s been solid so far, though I expect some positive regression for a pitcher in his prime and coming off two exceptional seasons. Bassitt has better command than the numbers show. Oakland hasn’t hit too often against lefties this year (123 a bats) but when they have they’ve looked great, owning a .260 batting average and .480 slugging percentage. I think today’s game looks a lot like Boyd’s second start against Minnesota. Give me the team with all the smoke and momentum– I’m on the A’s for 2 units.
