This will be a shorter overall article, partially because the NBA has been pretty annoying the past two days (ha). What can ya do, but we’re still way over the pro-gambler’s goal at a healthy 57%. I’ll try my best to take my mind and eyes off of March Madness for this brief article. Trust that I’m still locked in; just annoyed! Onto Saturday’s picks:
Lean, Grizzlies -6 (-110): I don’t know what to think of last night’s abysmal performance from Memphis. The Grizzlies are a complete team but really dropped the ball on that one. Did they expect a well-coached Warriors team to come out completely lost without Steph Curry? I guess so. I expect the Grizzlies to be a little more steamed up tonight (and for Golden State to be comparatively less energetic), which should amount to a win and cover. This is a reduced line tonight so there’s value here, but I’ll just lean Memphis.
Sixers -6.5 (-105), 2 units: This is another ideal matchup for me to fade the Kings– hopefully Philly doesn’t disappoint. Sacramento is coming off two real quality wins against Washington and Boston on the road. Their road trip doesn’t get any easier Saturday evening as they travel to the Wells Fargo Arena. The Sixers are a considerably better defensive unit than the teams Sacramento bested on their little streak. Rated #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team stats, Philadelphia has managed to only allow 110 ppg (which is low in today’s NBA) and stands among the most aggressive and stifling squads in the association, even without Embiid and Simmons for huge parts of the season. The Kings can score, but Philly doesn’t get overwhelmed by anyone not named the Bucks or Nets. This is also an ideal spot for the Sixers. The fact that Seth Curry is out tonight isn’t great, but Philly is coming off 3 days rest and they’re at home after a disappointing loss in OT against Milwaukee. Time for the Sixers to flex. Ben Simmons is more than capable of leading the Sixers to big blowout wins (he’s been doing it throughout March) and Philly has a deep roster even without Embiid and Curry. Ordinarily, this line would be around 9 or 10, so I smell VALUE. Love Philly today.
Hornets +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is the kind of game that the Hornets can eke out a cover. Charlotte is a good underdog at 15-13-1 ATS on the season and after a loss they’re 12-7 ATS, even better. This is a really tough road trip for such a young team, and I’m not the biggest fan of LaMelo Ball, but I do think the youngster is a pretty good leader for his age. He has a long way to go and I hope the media-hype-train doesn’t overwhelm him or get to his head, but he’s a great facilitator and stars in a well-balanced unit. Charlotte isn’t exceptional in any one category, but they are balanced. LAC is indeed an elite team and a threat to dethrone LAL come playoff time, but the Clippers aren’t the most overwhelming team either. They play at a methodical pace (26th in tempo) and rely on lock-down defense to create margin. The Charlotte offense is bound to take some lessons from their last defeat by the Lakers and I think they show some improvements on offense tonight. Young teams tend to be impulsive and reactionary, so it’s best to take advantage of more immediate turn-around angles. If this number goes over 10 I’ll like it even more, but 9.5 feels like too much. I’ll take the Hornets to cover.
Grand Canyon is 13-0 when they score 71 points or more. They are just 4-6 when they score less than 71. Asbjorn Midtgaard is going to have to be on tonight if Grand Canyon stand any chance at beating the Hawkeyes. Midtgaard led the NCAA in FG percentage.
The Hawkeyes, who are they #2 seed, shoot 47.6% from the field, and 38.6% from behind the arc. This why the are a 2 seed. They can score, and they can do it from anywhere on that court. Iowa is high in the NCAA in recording assists. They will find that open shot.
Luka Garza. That is all that needs to be said for this prediction. He is a Naismith finalists, he averages 23.7 points per game, and can score from inside and behind the arc. The Antelopes are going to have a rough night trying to stop him. Iowa has recorded a turnover on only 13.5 % of its possessions, which is lowest in the country. Grand Canyon is ranked 259th is creating turnovers. This game is not looking good for Grand Canyon.
The Bonnies come into play as a 9 seed looking to defeat the 8 seeded Tigers. Kyle Lofton has fueled this Saint Bonaventure offense, he is averaging 14.6 points per game, and is looking to keep that same scoring tempo here today. The Bonnies play a physical defense. They hold their opponents to a mere 60.4 points per game, which is ranked #5 in the NCAA. The Bonnies are 14-0 when they score at least 65 points.
LSU is playing with a hot offense hand right now. LSU shocked Arkansas in the SEC semifinals game by posting a score of 78 on them. Then nearly went on to win the SEC before falling short 79-80 to Alabama. Bottom line, LSU can score. Cameron Thomas averages 22.6 a game, and Trendon Watford averages 16.1. The Tigers are 13-0 when they can hold opponents to 41.5% or worse from the field.
I think Las Vegas and the sports books are lying to themselves when they made this spread. Saint Bonaventure has not played a high level scoring team like this LSU team they will face today. Their toughest opponents were Richmond and maybe Davidson, both who didn’t make the tournament. LSU is going to blow the Bonnies out of the water, and should be over before the first half is even over.
Everyone keeps talking about how the Bonnies are going to beat the Tigers here. Do you think that LSU has heard that multiple times by now? Now I know that LSU doesn’t play a ton of defense and they certainly hang around for offensive rebounds and ignore them defensively but they at least are an amazing offense ranking 5th in the league in overall efficiency. The Big issue that I have with this matchup is Saint Bonaventure’s depth. How are they going to keep up with LSU with their speed and size when they are essentially on a 6 man rotation? Five of the Bonnie’s players play over 85% of the game and their next best is their 6th man at 33%. This isn’t good for fatigue and it certainly isn’t good for foul trouble. I can see LSU who plays in a tougher conference lay on some points here and if Saint Bonaventure can’t go score for score with them, this game could be over quickly. The Bonnies have a very good defense according to efficiency ranking 17th in the league but part of that is their slow style of play as well as the conference being bad shooters. The last thing that I may add is that the Bonnies have had some great free throw luck ranking 4th in the nation in opponent free throw shooting. I’ll go against the public and take LSU.
LSU -2 for 3 stars
Colorado vs Georgetown -5 O/U 138
I think that it’s pretty obvious that the PAC 12 is quite a bit over-rated. I mean Colorado has a very nice record and nobody can beat them at home, but this is obviously different. Colorado got the chance early in the season to stop up against better competition against Tennessee and they lost by double digits. Colorado’s best wins came within their own conference. Now in saying that, Georgetown is a little over-rated themselves and only really became hot in the Big East tournament. One thing that I have noticed with the Hoya’s is that their 3 point shooting has improved and in their last 3 games, they are shooting 41.7% from deep. Will it be enough is the big question? Colorado is about 3 points per game worse on the road than they are at home so I am going to Grab the points here with Georgetown and I will give that moneyline a little love as well.
Georgetown +5 – 3 star premium shared and sprinkle
This is the second of two articles on the first round of the NCAA Tourney’s East Bracket, which will play out all day Saturday. Check out part I here. I was 6-2 yesterday in March Madness free picks here at TheOddsBreakers — let’s keep WINNING!
Alabama -16 (-115), 1.5 units: The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Iona Gaels are primed and ready for the late-games on Saturday for the East Bracket of the NCAA Tournament. Both enter this contest winners of 6 straight and the champions of their respective conferences. Most of us think of the Crimson Tide as strictly juggernauts on Saturdays in the Fall, but their basketball team is no slouch, either. This is the 22nd NCAA Tournament appearance for Bama and they’re hungry for their first ever national title. Second-year coach Nate Oats has brought flare and a high-octane offensive scheme to the school’s program. Four Crimson Tide players score in the double digits, the team averages 80 ppg, and they thrive as one of the fastest tempo-teams in the country, capitalizing often from quick points off breakaway steals (they rank #5 nationally on Haslametrics in this category). But people forget how good Bama is on defense, too. Menacing against the three ball and ranked #2 overall on KenPom in adjusted defense, the Crimson Tide ranks in the top-50 in three of our four primary defensive field goal categories (on Haslametrics). The boys are buzzin’ in Tuscaloosa and hoping this is the year they win it all. But can Iona shock the world and become the next bracket-busting Oral Roberts? Probably not. As much respect as we have for Rick Pitino, who recently said that his stint at Iona will be his last coaching gig (so he’s there to stay), the Gaels are not in the same stratosphere as Alabama. Ranked #184 on KenPom and #178 on Haslametrics, Iona relies on their defense to overcome their foes in the MAAC. They were extremely effective in their conference tournament, allowing only 53.8 ppg. As impressive as that is, this is a huge step up in class on Saturday for the Gaels. The one game worth noting where Iona faced a non-conference opponent this year? Seton Hall– and the Gaels were blown out by 22 points. It’s Pitino’s first year in the program and Iona has dealt with a ton of adversity this year, including a long COVID layoff smack-dab in the middle of the season. It’s reasonable to assume that they’re already happy with their accomplishments. Bama is not. Alabama has all the drive and motivation to show up big in their first tournament game. My money will go on the Crimson Tide to out-perform and overwhelm the respectable Gaels.
MD/UConn under 130 (-110), 2 units: This is a really interesting game. The unpredictable and full-of-potential Maryland Terps made it to the NCAA Tournament thanks to many impressive Big 10 wins throughout the season. UConn, nearly the Big East champions, also earned a right to the tournament due to great in-season play and wins without their star James Bouknight. With Bouknight getting a full week of rest after some cramping issues in the conference tourney, he should be refreshed and ready to roll Saturday. The sophomore guard has elite athleticism and shooting ability, not to mention natural confidence and leadership intangibles. in his most recent outing, where he still scored 14 points and snagged 8 rebounds, Bouknight said he played his worst game ever. The future NBA guard isn’t easily satisfied and the Huskies run off the same energy. Throughout January and into February the Huskies played without Bouknight and showed some real grit and toughness, edging out Big East rivals like Xavier, Providence, and Seton Hall. Haslametrics ranks UConn as one of the best teams in the country with the 18th best offense, 15th best defense (9th overall). They’re also relentless at the rim. Ranked #5 in the nation on Haslametrics in point-potential from offensive rebounds, the Huskies are more than apt at securing missed shots and capitalizing on opportunities. But the Terps won’t be afraid of Bouknight or UConn’s abilities in the front court. After all, Maryland plays in the most frightening conference in the country, where big boys like Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn and Hunter Dickinson prowl and dominate at the rim. Led by Baltimore’s Darryl Morsell, the Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year, the Terps are ranked #1 in preventing mid-range shots and #2 in stifling near proximity opportunities on Haslametrics. Only allowing 65 ppg and flexing their defense in games this year in wins against teams like Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue (all teams which that probably have similar offensive talent to the Huskies), Maryland will be prove testy at the rim and I think highly competitive throughout this contest. Because of the prowess of both defenses and the nerves of postseason play, I like this game to fly under. I’d lean UConn -3.
Lean, UCLA +4 (-110): It’s not easy being BYU. The Cougars are an elite team in the NCAA’s West Coach Conference. The only problem? Gonzaga is in there, too. It’s hard to get a grasp on how good of a team BYU is. They win and usually beat up on inferior conference opponents but they always get hammered down and humbled by the Bulldogs. That has to be frustrating. They didn’t face anyone of real value to note in non-conference play, either, so we’re left with their 18-9 above-average record to evaluate. KenPom ranks BYU as a very solid all around team– 27th in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense. Haslametrics ranks the Cougars even higher on defense in several noteworthy categories such as FG percentage allowed (7th), potential quick points from offensive rebounds (3rd), and near-proximity FG percentage (1st). That’s all very impressive, but I worry that UCLA matches up really well against the 6th seed. UCLA is particularly skilled in their mid-range game. Ranking 18th on KenPom and 29th overall in adjusted offense on Haslametrics, the Bruins are top 20 in all mid-range shooting categories (FG percentage, percentage of shots, and attempts vs the average opponent). Running a slow-paced, methodical offense, UCLA has thrives in taking care of the basketball. Ranked 46th in Division 1 basketball in turnovers committed per game (AthlonSports), the Bruins can be an annoying unit to face for 40 minutes. We saw that plain as day in their First Four matchup against the Spartans. Michigan State led by as many as 14 points in that game, but the Bruins kept chipping and chipping away. By committing less fouls and turnovers and with high percentage shooting, UCLA out-lasted Michigan State and earned their way into the tournament. I’m not sure just how good BYU is and a smart team with good shooting like UCLA could be a problem Saturday. Only a lean for me, but I’d go Bruins.
Texas -8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Look out, the Texas Longhorns are surging at the right time. Winners of now 6 in a row and a Big 12 title to show for it, Texas is a very formidable tournament team who presents one of the more well-balanced units in the country. Entering March Madness at 24th overall on KenPom and 25th overall on Haslametrics, it’s hard to find a real flaw in the Longhorns. Okay, they’re not the BEST in their mid-range game (coincidentally they’re not great at mid-range defense either). They allow too many 3 pointers and foul a little too often, too. Fine. But overall, Texas is an extremely effective team on both ends of the floor when they play up to their potential. Edging out Big-12 titans like Oklahoma State and West Virginia and Texas Tech in the regular season is no easy feat, but that’s exactly what they did. One has to assume Texas is entering the tourney with a little chip on their collective shoulders, too. The Longhorns have lost their last four tournament games. Time for a little redemption. Led by guard Andrew Jones, who averages nearly 14.9 ppg and shoots 42% from the field and 80% from the FT line, the Longhorns have a knack for driving on their opponents and stacking up points from the charity stripe. They’re top 4 scorers are hitting at least 70.8% from the line– not a good outlook for an Abilene-Christian team who ranks near the bottom of the nation in free throw attempts allowed (Haslametrics). Abilene-Christian does a fantastic job at preventing shots from the field, however, ranked #2 in the nation on Haslametrics in that category. The Wildcats rely on their defense to beat opponents in the Southland Conference, something they showcased in their 79-45 beat-down of Nicholls in the title game. The Wildcats also have a decent offense with 3 players who average in the double-digits. In their non-conference play, Abilene-Christian hung with Texas Tech in a close defeat. I’m actually pretty impressed by that. The Wildcats are, by no means, a team to sleep on. That being said, Texas has too much steam and too much overall talent to be dethroned on Saturday. This is a one unit play out of respect for Abilene-Christian’s consistency in the Southland Conference and as the 32nd ranked overall defense on KenPom, but I think Texas covers by double digits. Hook em horns!
This is part I of my breakdown of Saturday’s East Bracket games! Check out Part II here. Happy Madness, everyone!
Georgetown +6.5 (-110), 2 units: Georgetown and Colorado travel to Indianapolis Saturday to faceoff in the first East Region game in the NCAA Tournament. This is an interesting showdown for several reasons. I’ve followed the Hoyas closer than most teams at the end of the regular season and boy was it a treat. The big boys from DC play hard for coach Patrick Ewing, though it’s unsurprising to see the NBA Hall of Famer thriving as the Hoyas’ leader. Ewing has the same swagger and moxie that he did on the hardwood, but you can tell he’s a “player’s coach” too. His front court studs exude the same tenacity as he did many moons ago for the same team. Georgetown’s guards and bigs can rebound, defend, and routinely get to the foul line, an area where they own one of the best shooting percentages in the nation. Finishing their season winning 6 of their last 8 games, including quality wins against Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Xavier, the Hoyas were crowned the Big East champions and they’re hardly a team anyone wants to face in the first round. Colorado has no choice, but the Buffaloes are favored in this contest for a reason. Haslametrics rates Colorado as #13 overall in the nation. They run a highly efficient offense and aggressive defense while operating at a molasses-like tempo that frustrates most of their opponents. Ranking 4th overall in the nation in free throw percentage, they, like the Hoyas, also tend to land behind the charity stripe in an effort to outlast their foes. My only issue is the conference they play for. Sure, Colorado thrived among conference opponents, winning 14 of their 20 Pac-12 games. They also very nearly won the conference title. But I can’t say I was blown away by their non-conference play. They beat up on lowly teams to start the season, a stretch of games where their opponents ranked 180th, and in their one game against a formidable opponent in Tennessee they were soundly beaten. After seeing the Volunteers take a big L to Oregon State in the first round Friday, that loss looks even worse. The Big East isn’t what it used to be either, but I’ll take a motivated, humming, Ewing-led Georgetown squad laying points any day against a Pac 12 elite.
Florida State -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: Alright, time to wake up Seminoles. Florida State takes on UNC Greensboro in the first round of madness and I think they’ll outclass the Spartans early in this one. Look at a first half bet, too. Here’s why: Florida State has been one of the more frustrating teams to bet this year (trust me, I know). Bewildering losses to teams like Notre Dame and UCF and twice to Georgia Tech had a lot of us scratching our heads. THIS is the team that so many think can get into the Final 4? Well, yes. Florida State has their flaws. They turn the ball over too much and they’re not great away from home (unfortunately they’ll be away from home for the entire tournament, in case you’re unaware). According to Haslametrics, Florida State is ranked in the top-25 in three of our four major field goal categories. They’re also incredibly effective at second-chance scoring opportunities via offensive rebounds. And regardless of their up and down play, they’re clearly one of the most talented teams in the country. Stacked with bigs and precision shooters, they’ll be too much for most teams in the tournament. UNC Greensboro is a formidable opponent in the Southern Conference, but they’ve only faced one team who made it to the postseason. Florida State has faced 9. I’m worried about the Spartans defense in this one. Ranked #66 overall on Haslametrics, they do a few things well. They’re aggressive and try to force turnovers, often playing a full or half-court press. But if that’s the strength they depend on, it won’t phase the Seminoles. Florida State is one of only four teams that presses harder than UNCG. They’re also ranked in the 88th percentile (according to Synergy) in transition defense. They’re also (also) shooting 39% from beyond the arc this year, which is top 10 in the nation. I’m happy for the Spartans that they’re in the tournament; I’m not happy for them in this matchup. The Seminoles should overwhelm the lesser foe and march on to round 2.
St. Bonaventure/LSU under 144.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bonnies may have one of the best names in the nation, I’ll give em that, but I’m not into it enough to bet on them Saturday. I also haven’t fallen in love with LSU. To me the best bet is an under-play. This line is set at -1.5 in LSU’s favor, which is virtually a pick-em, yet the total is set at a line more akin to what an SEC game features– aka a ton of offense. That feels off to me. Ranked 11th overall in adjusted defense on Haslametrics, the Bonnies are #1 in the country in field goal percentage allowed. They’re also top 10 in a host of other defensive categories like mid-range FG percentage and close proximity shot defense. And I know what you’re thinking- Who cares Chris?! St. Bonaventure plays in the Atlantic 10 Conference where the best team they’ve beaten is VCU. LSU will overwhelm the Bonnies with their electric offense, Chris. Don’t be an idiot, Chris. Chris! Okay, you may be right. But how impressed are you by the SEC? Sure, Alabama and Florida and Arkansas have had some impressive runs and there’s a ton of scoring down south, but I think the Bonnies might be able to hang. St. Bonaventure knows that in order to rival the prolific offense that LSU relies on, the Bonnies need to slow down the game’s pace. St. Bonaventure’s runs at a tempo that’s 319th in the country; in other words, one of the slowest. And I like this angle even more because, while LSU is ranked 11th in adjusted offense on Haslametrics, they’re a below-average 126th in adjusted defense. The Bonnies should be able to control the game when they’re on offense with calculated, assist-driven basketball. At 32nd on Haslametrics in adjusted offense, they’re no slouches in that area either. I can’t pick LSU because they’re too volatile and their defense isn’t up to par. I can’t pick the Bonnies because I don’t trust an Atlantic-10 team against a superb offense for 40 minutes. But I can bet the under here, and I like it.
Lean, Michigan -25.5 (-110): This is probably the least-interesting game I’ll cover in the first round of this bracket, so just a lean here for me. And forgive me but, it’s hard to invest too much time into this game– there’s not too much mystery here. March hasn’t been too kind to the Wolverines, but things may take a turn now that we’re into the madness. Regardless of any hot take or sharp angle, it’s not debatable that Michigan is one of the best teams in the country. They’re the elite of the most elite conference and they’ve been as consistently dominant as any team, even if their in-state foe handed them a rare loss and even though Illinois and Ohio State bested them at the end of the year. If anything, that could work wonders for the Wolverines. A team like Gonzaga has a ton of pressure to win it all. They’re undefeated and virtually untouched entering the tournament. The Wolverines had a few down moments at the end of the regular season but they got that out of the way. In a college basketball world with COVID and now playing inside the Indianapolis bubble, it feels like getting through some adversity is always a good thing. In short, I expect Michigan to fire on all cylinders and have their way with Texas Southern. The Texas Southern Tigers finagled their way into bracketology with a nice win over Mount St. Mary’s in the First Four. They’re already winners. Unfortunately, the Tigers only have one win, ONE, against a team in KenPom’s top 220. Yowza. Credit to SportsBettingDime for that factoid. Although they play at a lightning pace, they’re not efficient on either end of the floor, ranking 268th on offense and 230th on defense according to Haslametrics. Things don’t look good for the Tigers here. And a fast-paced team only plays into the hands of an elite team like Michigan, whose talent and discipline will force the Tigers into mistakes early and often. Don’t bet the Texas Southern side but if you feel intrigued, look at Michigan and swallow the points.
What a weird night in the association Thursday. The Suns and Jazz looked very average and got overwhelmed by vastly inferior opponents, and somehow the Pelicans/Blazers game didn’t reach 200 points. Weird, weird, and more weird. It’s okay though, we’re 10-9 on the week, still a winning record, and now we’re out for some revenge. Let’s try not to be blindsided by the madness of college hoops and get some more wins in the NBA:
Celtics -7 (-110), 2 units: The Celtics tend to do this. They go on long runs where they look like an elite team, only to then go on ice-cold streaks where they lose chemistry and confidence. The truth is, they haven’t looked good for weeks. They got humbled by the Nets, beat a banged up Raptors team by a slim margin, beat the league-worst Rockets, and then fell to Utah and Cleveland. And now rumors are circulating that Brad Stevens might be leaving to coach Indiana. Not so fast my friends, not so fast. When addressing reports that Brad Stevens could be making the big move, sideline reporters and beat writers in Boston laughed it off. @GoodmanHoops reported that nothing seems out of the ordinary. The Celtics are healthy, practice was normal, they’re at home, and Sacramento is a good team to regain some camaraderie. Boston’s defense is the main reason behind their current slump. In their last 5 games, the Celtics have allowed 117.4 ppg. The only game that a team didn’t eclipse 117 points against Boston?– the hapless Rockets. While that may seem like an angle to play on, I think it’s an angle to play against. Brad Stevens knows they need to improve on defense and that’ll be their focus tonight. Sacramento is probably the worst defense in the NBA, ranking last in Hollinger’s adjusted defense efficiency ratings and 29th in the association in points allowed per game. But Sacramento can hang with most teams on offense and we’re pretty certain Boston is aware of that. De’Aaron Fox and other Kings’ contributors are 10th in offensive efficiency and 8th in ppg. The Celtics will need to flex some true defensive improvement to cover this line tonight and I’m betting that they will. It helps that Sacramento has to turn around and face Philadelphia tomorrow night, another leg on a long arduous road trip for the Kings. Bet Boston to cover.
Lean, Rockets -1.5 (-110): If you know my history with Houston, you know I can’t make this bet. But this is about as good a spot as it’s going to get and as good a chance as Houston has to eke out a win. The Rockets are now losers of 18 straight, EIGHT-TEEN STRAIGHT, but they should look a little different with Christian Wood. The big power forward left a huge gap in Houston’s front court, particularly on defense. He returned on Wednesday in his first game back against Golden State but Detroit should make for a much easier matchup. The Pistons are coming off a rare win against Toronto and the Rockets are at home. And in case you’re unaware, Detroit is not a good basketball team. The books are favoring Houston by a lackluster 1.5 points. Rockets– are you gonna step up?
Grizzlies -7.5 (-110), 1 unit: Memphis is a deep team capable of making a run in the playoffs and I’m not deterred by a few of their recent losses. They were in a bad spot against Denver when the Nuggets really wanted a win (and still only lost by a point) and who hasn’t gotten blown out by the Suns? They squeaked by the Heat 2 nights ago and even though that game featured horrible offense across the board, the Grizzlies’ defense is really impressive. The stats are starting to reveal as much. Ranked 10th in points allowed per game and 7th in defensive efficiency, the Grizzlies are one of those rare teams that can push the pace on offense and then turn around and stymie their opponents’ scoring chances. I wanted to go with Golden State tonight, but this isn’t a good situation for the Curry-less Warriors. Without Steph last year, the Warriors were a below-average team who struggled to score. Everyone knows that Steph can drop dimes from everywhere on the court but few realize how good of a facilitator and leader he is. The Warriors will have to search for answers on offense today and this isn’t the ideal first opponent to do so. Memphis is in an ideal position at home, hosting Golden State in back-to-back games. Bet on the Grizz to cover.
Nuggets -7 (-110), 2 units: Denver faced Chicago on March 1st and got a nice 6 point win over the Bulls at the United Center. I think this one will look a little different. The Nuggets are starting to hum. Winners of now 7 of their last 8, Denver finds themselves on a nice little homestay as they welcome in Chicago tonight. And welcome they will. The Bulls are really, really struggling in their front court defense. Centers Wendell Carter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen can’t find a rhythm on either end of the floor and Zach LaVine, although big for a shooting guard and feisty on defense, struggles to hold his team afloat against solid competition. Denver is healthier than they’ve been all year and with a line that’s only slightly over 2 possessions, I love them to cover.
Suns -11 (-110), 1 unit and Game Under 232 (-110), 1.5 units: Chris, you’re attacking this game again and betting on the Suns to cover after blowing last night’s game? Yup. And I like the under even more. Check out my analysis yesterday but I hope my reasons are obvious. Sometimes a game like this isn’t worth overanalyzing. Phoenix is at home for the second night in a row and last night’s loss had to be humbling. The Suns have veteran leadership in Chris Paul and last night’s defensive performance wasn’t emblematic of the way they usually play. As far as the total goes, look at the way the Pelicans/Blazers game went last night. I overlooked a good angle in that game– teams who explode offensively and then play in a double-header often tend to slow down in the second contest. I wish there was more data on that, but anecdotally I’ve seen it plenty. Like the Lakers or Knicks or Jazz would be, the Suns must be particularly bothered by the 70 points they allowed in the second half last night. They’ll correct that tonight. They better, because they have LAL on deck for a big Sunday showcase game.
Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham (2) and Isaac Likekele (13) celebrate during the second half of the college men's basketball game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Arkansas Razorbacks at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021. Cowboys beat Arkansas 81-77. Photo by Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
Liberty vs Oklahoma State -7.5 O/U 140.5
Liberty is the Virginia of the Atlantic Sun conference. They play slow at 63.1 possessions per game and shoot great ranking 4th in the nation in effective FG% at 57.4% Oklahoma State plays fast and has really stepped up their defense. I think that the Atlantic sun conference is bad and when Liberty stepped up in competition, they were blown out by Purdue, they lost by 9 to Missouri and they lost to TCU.. I also think that Oklahoma State has been dying to get back on the court after facing Texas who couldn’t miss a shot in the Big 12 tournament. Liberty is a nice solid team but they are stepping way up here in competition here and Oklahoma State is poised to makes some noise. I have the Pokes here by 10.
Oklahoma State -7.5 – 2 stars
Syracuse vs San Diego State -3 O/U 139
The ACC isn’t all that good and we know this. Syracuse hasn’t been a great away from home team but Jim Boeheim at 18-12 ATS in this tournament since 2006 trumps that. Both teams play much faster than their tempo shows just due to the fact that the teams that they have played for the most part played slow. I also think that the officiating in the Mountain west is a bit kinder to the defensive side of the ball. The Orange has been pretty hot lately in the ACC and their offense ranks a nice 20th in adjusted efficiency. The Aztec’s shoot a nice 3 ball at 37.5% which is top 27 in the NCAA. I have San Diego State winning this game 74-70 so I like the over.
Over 139 2 stars
Georgia Tech vs Loyola Chicago +5.5 O/U 124.5
Now we all know about the Moses Write Covid issue and how this spread went from Loyola -2 to Loyola -5.5 when the news game out. Moses is the Yellow Jacket’s best inside presence and leading scorer but isn’t there another guy that can step up a little? 3.5 points is a big adjustment for one guy and I think that 6’10 sophomore Rodney Howard should be able to stop up some here. Both these teams got robbed in their seeding. They should be 3 and 4 seeds in my opinion. This is a pretty low total for a Georgia Tech game. My question is if there will be a let down after winning the ACC tournament? All in all, I think that the Missouri Valley conference is overrated. Loyola lost handily to Wisconsin and Richmond. Now Loyola is facing a great Georgia tech team that ranks 15th in the nation at forcing turnovers. Loyola tends to give the ball up 18.5% of their possessions. This could be a 1 and one scenario for either team but I will take the points and sprinkle.
Georgia tech +5.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle and lean over
Let’s have some fun with the bow to the gambling gods parlay!
Texas tech -175, Baylor under 140, Purdue -310, and Oklahoma State -7.5 – This pays about 6.5-1. Best of luck everyone!
This is the biggest spread so far barring Gonzaga’s matchup with App State/Norfolk State. I really do not love how Baylor finished their season, but I will say that they have some serious upside when it comes to this tournament. Hartford’s offense is horrible ranking 254th on Kenpom but their defense has a small breath of life in it at 124th on Kenpom. The America East conference is pretty bad this year and Hartford isn’t even the best team in it due to Vermont losing to them. I think this game is about defense for the Bears. Baylor stated that they will improve their defense going forward so I will be somewhat amazed if Hartford scores over 50 points here. In saying that, Baylor has no reason to try and get a blowout when they will have a tough game vs North Carolina or Wisconsin up next. I will grab the under here and I have Baylor winning this game 80-50.
Under 140 – 1.5 stars
Wisconsin vs North Carolina -1.5 O/U 139
The funny thing is that I keep asking myself, why the heck haven’t I bet North Carolina? Well, it should be quite obvious to people that Wisconsin is massively overrated on Kenpom ranking 10th in the nation and they are over-rated on Bart Torvik at 12th in the nation but then I have to ask myself, why the hell is North Carolina favored when they only rank 31st on Torvik and 28th on Kenpom. Does the whole world think that UNC is better than Wisconsin when the metric’s don’t line up? I mean, the Tarheels have their own problems turning the ball over 20.5% of the time along with a horrible effective FG% ranking 257th and 48.5% Here’s the deal in this game, the Tarheels rank 2nd in the nation and will rebound their own misses while they will be rebounding Wisconsin’s as well. The question that I have is will Wisconsin be able to box them out some and will Wisconsin hit the 3? The Badgers shoot a lot of 3s and they will not have a post game vs the Tar Heels. UNC does not defend the 3 ball well allowing 34.4% to go in. Lots of variance in this game and I can see Wisconsin getting blown out if they can’t hit and I could also see UNC getting blown out if they play sloppy and the Badgers hit the 3. I don’t think the spread will matter this game. I have this game one team 75 and the other team 61. Not sure which one but the total that I got is 136
Lean under
North Texas vs Purdue -7 O/U 127
Purdue could make a little noise here in this tournament and I like where they are seeded. Baylor will be their biggest hurdle but if they somehow can get past them, they have a legitimate shot at beating Ohio State who they have already beaten twice this year. Now both of these teams play a very slow game with North Texas ranking 350th in pace of play and Purdue ranking 274th. I must say that I think that Conference USA is not a good basketball conference and when North Texas stepped up to the plate to play better teams, they pretty much lost all of those games and many were not close. North Texas’s best win was against number 82 LA tech who I also think is overrated. My numbers with the North Texas downgrade has this game Purdue winning 66-58 so I lean Purdue and the under right now.
Lean under 127 and lean Purdue
Winthrop vs Villanova -6.5 O/U 141.5
I must say that I was hoping that Winthrop got a Missouri, or an Oklahoma or something. I am not too happy that they have to face a very talented Villanova team who has a chip on their shoulder after losing Collin Gillespie. I was high on Winthrop getting to this tournament as a potential Cinderella, but here, they will have their work cut out for them. Winthrop is a well rounded lower conference team who only has 1 loss all season but they certainly do not have any good wins either with their strongest victory against number 92 Furman way back in December. Villanova is quite a bit weaker on defense this year and they are venerable to the three allowing 35.3% to go in, but they are still playing in a much more talented conference than Winthrop is. The Wildcats play slow and the Eagles play fast. Gonna be a little clash here but it Winthrop gets hot, Nova does not have their guy in Gillespie that can put them back in the game. Kenpom has this game a 10 point spread so the market is factoring in 3.5 points for the injury.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns (-10.5) 10:05pm est
The Timberwolves come into Phoenix tonight winning just 2 of their last 5 games. They are averaging 109.4 points per game, and are giving up 117.3 points per game. In his last 8 games, Anthony Edwards is posting 24.5ppg, 5.6rpg, and 1.8spg. The Timberwolves will be without leading scorer Malik Beasley due to suspension.
The Suns are currently one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They are 26-12 and currently sitting at 2nd in the Western Conference. The backcourt duo of Chris Paul and Devin Booker continue to carry the team with their efficient scoring ability. The Suns are averaging 114.1ppg, and are only giving up 107.6.
The Suns here are clearly the better team. The Timberwolves are playing bad, and without their full team they won’t be able to gel anytime soon. With 7 foot tall Deandre Ayton, and his prolific defensive skill, it will be hard for Karl Anthony Towns to get anything going. Minnesota is going to need to rely on Edwards to get something going. And it will not be enough for the red hot Suns.
