This play for me is all about taking a shot with a young Pitcher. Casey Mize made his debut last year pitching for the Tigers and his numbers were not great at a 6.47 FIP over 28 innings. This year however, he has 11 innings behind his belt with a nice 2.87 FIP. When Mize pitched in the minors he lit it up in 2019 with great numbers. I think that it could be his year. Cole Irvin is pitching for Oakland and he has been getting shelled so far. I do not trust Detroit’s bad Bullpen but I think that they could be leading after 5
Detroit 1st 5 +115 – 1.5 stars
NY Mets vs Colorado Rockies (1st game) +237 O/U 7
Jacob Degrom is pitching so we should probably be playing him right? WROOOONG. I am not saying that he isn’t one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball, but what I am saying is that anything can happen at Coors field and especially on only 7 short innings with this game priced like it is a full 9. I think that this line is just mispriced in general. Chi Chi Gonzalez is pitching for the Rockies and he has a half way decent 3.9 FIP and 3.6 ERA going this year. If the Mets are caught sleeping here, the Rockies could possibly steal this first game. I just think this price is a bit too big for a home dog and the Rockies should be priced around +190 ish over 7 innings. I’ll take a shot here as well.
This should be a good main event between two seasoned fighters trying to move back up in the ranks in the middleweight class. Robert Whittaker has a very solid 22-5 record but he has only lost once since 2014 and that was to Israel Adesanye which we all know is very forgivable. Kelvin Gastelum on the other hand had to prove himself on the Ultimate Fighter to get in the UFC back in 2013 and has since put together a nice record of 16-6. Kelvin has a ton of heart and has also fought the best of the best in this weight class taking Israel Adesanye and Darren Till to the distance. Looking at how these two fighters match up, Robert Whittaker is definitely the better striker landing 4.5 significant strikers per minute to Kelvin Gastelum’s 3.6. Gastelum might have an edge on the ground here and that is where he can score some points. Kelvin 1.22 take downs per 15 minutes to Robert’s .43. Both guys are capable of submitting their opponents but neither one has done it since 2014. One thing that is interesting to me is Gastelum’s jaw. He has never been knocked out and has only lost twice by submission and four times by decision. I think that Whitaker is the better overall technical fighter here but he is at a massive price at -260 and this makes me lean the other way. One think for sure is that these fighters have went to the scorecards for the most part in their recent fights to decide the winner. Kelvin has went to decision 4 of his last 5 fights and Whittaker has done the same. I think that the safest play here being that Gastelum has never been knocked out is the over 4.5 rounds at -140.
Over 4.5 rounds -14 – 2 stars
Andrei Arlovski vs Chase Sherman -105
This should be actually a decent fight to watch on this card. Andrei is a statue in the UFC at 42 years old with 30 wins and 20 losses. He is a tough dude that has plenty of heart. Andrei will take on anybody but at this age of 42 years old, I can’t imagine that he keeps holding up. Andrei goes into fights head first and takes an absolute beating. He does last to decision from time to time but when he steps up in class, he usually gets taken out rather quickly. Now Chase Sherman is a younger fighter with little UFC experience but he at least has good experience in the Octagon being that this is his 22nd fight. Sherman is 15-6 with 14 KO/TKO’s and only 1 decision. His losses were 4 KO/TKOs and 2 decisions. As a matter of fact, Sherman really doesn’t go to decision too often with only 3 in his whole career. Now Sherman hasn’t really hasn’t faced nearly the amount of competition that Andrei has but I do like the fact that he has won his last 4 fights in a row with 3 of them in the first round and one just 49 seconds into the second round. I am not 100% sure that Chase will win this fight but I do think that he wins or loses fast. I think that the real value in this fight is under 2.5 at plus money.
A clean 3-1 day boosts the overall record and we move onto Saturday in the association. How do you like that under on NO/WAS, even after OT? Good stuff. I don’t like a lot of games on the card today, but I mustered 4 picks anyway. Let’s get to it.
Lakers win (-105), 2 units: This line started favoring Utah by 6.5 at most books and it’s come all the way down to a lowly 1 point edge. I see it as the Lakers -1 in plenty of places now. After the leg injury to Donovan Mitchell last night (fortunately the X-Rays came back negative) the Jazz announced they’re sitting Gobert, Favors, and Conley for rest. Meanwhile for LAL, it looks like Drummond, Schroder, Kuzma and Morris will all play. The Jazz don’t need this game and that’s the message they’re sending with all their starters sitting out. The Lakers do need this game, as they’ve slipped to 5th overall in the Western Conference. In a good spot at home, the line tells us everything. Lakers may win by a big margin.
Pistons/Wizards over 226 (-110), 1.5 units and Bradley Beal over 28.5 points (-114), 1.5 units: The Pistons are not a good basketball team. Neither are the Wizards, for that matter. But both of these teams can still thrive on the offensive end of the court. It’s old news after I’ve typed it out 1000 times in these articles, but Washington usually makes for the perfect “over” storm. They’re one of the fastest teams in the NBA, they’re 10th overall in points per game, and they’re one of the worst defenses in the association (24th in defensive efficiency, 29th in points allowed). Led by possibly the most improved player of the year in Jerami Grant, the Pistons are young and fiery and usually very competitive against lower-tier teams. This should be a battle of pride and I lean Detroit +5, but I like the over better. When these two units faced off in 2 other contests this year, it only amounted to 198 and 211 points. So then why do I like this to go over? Bradley Beal wasn’t in either of those games. Beal also went 0-9 from 3-point land and 10-29 from the field last night. He stayed after the game to put in more work because of it. I love that. Beal should be ready to roll and make a significant difference tonight in today’s game and that should easily drive the total over.
Bucks -8 (-110), 1 unit: If this was a 5 to 6.5 point line I’d be laying more units here, but it’s just a 1 unit play at -8. Regardless, this is a beyond perfect setup for Milwaukee to win. The Bucks always struggle without their star and now not only is the Greek-freak back but Milwaukee comes into Saturday looking very healthy. Donte DiVincenzo, Jrue Holliday and Kris Middleton round up a fully healthy starting 5 tonight for the home team. After a nice win on the road against Atlanta, the Bucks got a day of rest in between and return back to the Fiserv Forum where they’re most comfortable and certainly most dangerous. The spot for Memphis isn’t as comfy. Off a heartbreaking loss to Dallas and then a fast-paced game at Chicago last night, the Grizzlies road trip continues on a back to back against one of the powerhouses of the Eastern Conference. Yikes, yowzah, etc. These are the type of games that the Grizzlies love to blow and where the Bucks love to blow-out other teams. For all the fuss we make over the Grizzlies’ defense, and it is good at 8th overall in defensive efficiency, the Bucks are better (7th according to Hollinger metrics). Milwaukee also has a considerably higher-rated offense and moves at a quicker tempo. At home, healthy and energized; that spells disaster for Memphis tonight. I’m talking myself into more units here but for now, this is a conservative one unit play on the home team. With the playoffs just around the corner, it’s time for Milwaukee to turn on the jets behind their former MVP. Expect them to impose their will Saturday.
Welp, we were on most of the right sides yesterday; we just didn’t make the right bets. No problem– 57% is still our number and I feel good about today’s games. Is there anything better than a mild Saturday in the Spring, knowing a full slate of baseball is ahead? Besides a full lineup of football in the Fall, it’s hard to beat. Happy Saturday, good people!
Diamondbacks win (-105), 1.5 units: I can’t trust Fedde and I trust those Nats-bats even less. Scherzer did a fantastic job on the mound yesterday, as we figured he would, but it’s hard to imagine that Arizona won’t have more offense today. Erick Fedde mans the dirt for this early game 2, bringing an 8.53 ERA thanks to a clobbering from the Braves on April 7. He looked better in his second game against St. Louis, a team that’s mid to low-tier in runs per game and batting average. Ergo, I’m not sure what to take from that “improved” start from Fedde. Luke Weaver, on the other hand, is a pitcher I can get behind. Weaver absolutely dominated the Reds on April 14th. The state of Ohio was just starting to get used to Cincinnati’s premiere performances at bat until Weaver came through. Pitching a full 7 innings, he only permitted 1 hit. He also struck out 8 and the Reds couldn’t muster a single run. That’s pretty unreal. Nationals’ hitters are good and due for some positive regression, but they’re really struggling to convert their talent at bat into actual points. If Weaver can show the kind of command he did against the Reds, Washington is in a ton of trouble today. Give me the road dog for a win. I also lean over in this one (the over has hit 6 out of the last 7 games between these two clubs).
White Sox/Red Sox over 9 (-105), 1 unit: Just one unit because I’m slightly concerned I’m missing something (am I? I think it’s just one of those weird sports bettor feelings where it feels too easy), but Cease and Pivetta are two pitchers still struggling with command and control and both of these ballclubs have great offenses. Boston and Chicago are top 10 in runs per game, Boston has moved up to 2nd overall in batting average and hits per game, and the White Sox should see some improvement after facing above-average pitching against Cleveland. The only thing that concerns me here is the weather. It’ll be sloppy, chilly, and not incredibly humid. Still, both of these throwers are vulnerable and this feels like one of those 7-5, 8-3 type contests. Bang the over.
Dodgers/Padres first 5 under 3.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Full Game under 7.5 (-120), 1.2 units: Two separate bets. The first showdown between the super-hyped Padres and the 2020 World Series Champions did not disappoint. Pushing to the 12th inning, LAD and San Diego sent 17 different combined pitchers to the mound in a back and forth battle. The young stud Ryan Weathers again looked sensational for the Padres, while Walker Buehler had another commanding start. Both teams showed the unparalleled depth in their rotations. The Dodgers, who are short-handed with Bellinger and Pollock and other playmakers out, showed how talented and deep they are behind bat, too. Luke Raley hit a homerun in the 5th and Zach McKinstry drove in runs in crucial spots in the 8th and 12th innings. It felt like a heavyweight bout between two playoff teams. Needless to say, it’ll be good ongoing TV to watch their multiple series this year and to see who gains an edge. Tonight, everyone’s tired but Kershaw and Darvish. Yu Darvish had a rough first outing to start the season but he’s looked crisp ever since. In his last 2 games over 13 innings pitched, Darvish has only allowed 6 hits and 2 runs. He’s struck out 13 during that span. He also owns a WHIP of 0.96. Kershaw’s stats are very similar– a rare bad start in game 1 (although it was at Coors field) but he’s come on strong since, pitching 13 innings and allowing only 1 run. My first inclination was to hit the over in this game because of how worked the rotations were last night. On second thought, the depth and creativity deployed from each bullpen was on full display in game 1 and I trust it here again. Kershaw and Darvish could each pitch 6 innings, too. I see this game playing out with less hits, less fireworks, and a pitching grind to the finish. Give me the unders.
Twins (-110), 2 units: A grand slam from Justin Upton in the 7th sent the bye bye cue to the Twins’ hopes of winning game 1 in LA. The Angels took a commanding lead behind 5 solid innings from Heaney and a great showing from their bullpen. Onto the next one. LAA’s offense is starting to flex. Rated 3rd overall in hits per game and 4th overall in runs per game, the Angels bring a 0.265 batting average (also 4th overall) into today’s contest against the struggling Matt Shoemaker. Over 11 innings and 2 games, the Twins’ starter has allowed 10 hits, 5 runs and holds a WHIP of 1.00. Not abysmal, but his command is volatile and against this confident Angels unit who was due some positive regression after losing their series against Boston, I can’t say I trust Shoemaker. Still, Minnesota’s rotation is stronger than the Angels. Their bullpen is formidable and they hold a top 10 team ERA. Can they cool off the Angels’ bats today? That’s a different question. Los Angeles’ Jose Quintana has really had issues in 2021. In his last start he got blasted by the Blue Jays and allowed 7 runs in just 1.2 innings. His first start wasn’t much better, gifting the Astros with 4 runs and 5 hits in just over 3 innings of play. Quintana should regress to his mean, which is far better command than what he’s showing, but until he proves he’s out of his funk I have to play against him. The Twins have the better rotation and are top 10 in all the same offensive categories that I mentioned above for LAA. Minnesota is also averaging 6 runs per game on the road. I’ll take the Twins to outplay the Angels’ bats and tie up the series.
What’s up people?! I like a lot of angles tonight, more than usual, so I’ll keep the individual write ups packaged tight so you can get about your day. Happy Friday!
Clippers win (+140) if Kawhi plays, 1 unit: These are two very evenly matched teams but I like the spot more for LAC. The Clippers sat out Kawhi and other starters Wednesday and still beat the Pistons. Philadelphia just battled Brooklyn in a game that was way too close at the end, considering the fact that Durant and Harden and Griffin were all on the bench, not to mention the recently retired LeMarcus Aldridge. Neither of these two teams have to play tomorrow, although Philly is in the middle of a nice little homestand. Good for them, but a well-balanced Clippers squad presents a different challenge tonight. Whatever way you decide to measure this game and gain a side, stats won’t help. LAC is top 10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in offensive efficiency. Philly is #2 in defensive efficiency and top 13 on offense. The 76ers also rank No. 4 in the NBA in shooting efficiency allowed and 3rd in 2-point shooting allowed (51.0 percent), while the Clippers are top 4 in defensive rebound rate (75.6 percent), 3-pointers allowed (11.3 per game), and assists allowed (22.8 per game). They’re both great teams. For plus money, especially if Kawhi plays, this is a steal. As I write this he’s questionable; look for an update closer to game time.
Pelicans/Wizards under 242.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We keep seeing this story. Just like in the NFL, after the Chiefs and Bucs and Packers and elite offenses light up the scoreboard through 8 weeks, the totals start to rise and the unders hit as the season nears playoff time. The books have caught up, and that’s the point we’re at right now in the NBA. This total, at 242.5, is an extremely high number. In case you don’t know what that means in translation, it means these two teams have to average over 60 points per quarter to eclipse that mark and hit the over. With the pace Washington plays at that’s entirely possible, but I don’t think it’s likely tonight. Clubs as inconsistent as the Wizards and Pelicans experience scoring droughts and volatility more than others. The Wizards sit at 22nd overall in offensive efficiency for that reason. New Orleans, who doesn’t play nearly as fast as Washington, is the more efficient offense at 10th overall. And here’s the thing– an intangible that’s easy to forget is that both of these teams know they suck on defense. They also know that their opponent’s chances of winning fall drastically if they’re able to succeed on defense, even if only for a short window of time. That usually results in moments during the game where the scoring slows and the tempo is more onerous, just like we saw in the Kings/Wizards game two nights ago. I’ll gladly take the under.
Nets team total over 117.5 (-105), 2.5 units: Are you kidding me? “Honey, can I take out a loan from the bank and hit the Nets team total over tonight? It even has reduced juice. What’s that? No?… okay okay.” There’s no such thing as a “lock” or guarantee in sports betting. Ever. That’s why this is a 2.5 unit bet and not a 2000 unit bet. That being said, I really love this angle tonight. With Gordon Hayward and other injured players out for the Hornets, I’m not sure where this full game total will land. What I do feel great about is what Brooklyn can do tonight. Like I mentioned on my podcast, I anticipated the Nets could lose against the Sixers (did I anticipate that Mr. Softie Durant would sit out, no, but here we are) and that Friday night would be a good time to flex. Besides the recovering James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris and Blake Griffin and all of Brooklyn’s scorers are set to headline this contest at home. As much as I really don’t want the Nets to succeed this year, this feels like an ideal spot for Brooklyn’s dynamic offense to put on a show. Charlotte, for all they’ve been through, has a solid defense. That’s probably why this line is a bit reduced. For us it’s just another chance to find value, take advantage, and win money. Nets over all day for me!
Grizzlies -4 (-110), 1.5 units: That was a really deflating loss for the Grizzlies two nights ago at Dallas. Memphis controlled much of that game and they were in prime position to win. Grayson Allen, a 90% free throw shooter, blew two straight shots at the charity stripe and gave Luka a chance at a miracle. And in typical Luka fashion, he delivered. When team morale drops after a loss like that it can go one of two ways. Memphis has proven how disciplined and even-keel they are all year. They’re one of the best ATS teams in the NBA for that reason (62.3% ATS overall, 60% ATS after a loss, 62.5% in away games). The Bulls are quite the opposite. Jockeying for a long shot at the playoffs and only covering 40.7% ATS at home, Chicago has now lost 4 straight after an ugly loss 2 nights ago against Orlando. Zach LaVine is out and the Grizzlies can’t expect a win tomorrow night at Milwaukee. Give me Memphis to cover in a game they need.
Knicks/Mavericks under 211 (-105), 1 unit: The one and only game where these two teams faced earlier in the season? The total settled at 185. It’s a matchup of two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (Dallas is 25th, Knicks are 30th in tempo) and the Mavericks’ defense has improved as we’ve progressed into the season. We know how good New York’s defense is: they allow the least amount of points in the association and they’ve held that spot for awhile. Not overthinking this; it’s an under play for me.
Parlay Opportunity to Consider: Grizzlies + Pelicans + Nuggets + Heat (odds: +375) – Remember to only sprinkle very light units on parlays like this. Long term, you win by finding value in single plays, not outrageous parlays. That being said, I like all these teams to win.
Happy Friday! Another day another dollar in MLB– we’re 28-20 thus far (58%). Let’s keep it rollin’ into the weekend!
Nationals -1.5 (-105), 2 units: I’m taking a shot on ol’ Mr. National today. Washington isn’t starting off the year the way they would have liked. They’re 1-3 at home and 3-7 overall and their play has been volatile. They present a good batting average but they don’t have a lot of runs to show for it (earning 3.44 per game, ranked 28th overall in MLB). Even their long-time ace Max Scherzer, who starts today, has had an up-and-down genesis in 2021. In his first start, which was ironically a win for Washington, he got slaughtered, allowing 5 hits and 5 home runs in six innings. Maybe slaughtered isn’t the right word, but Max is typically elite at preventing homeruns, posting under 1 homerun per 9 innings nearly his entire career. Scherzer looked way better in his most recent start against the Dodgers, allowing only 3 hits and 1 run over 6 innings. That’s nearly impossible these days against LAD, so that’s a good sign for Max. Arizona starts Taylor Widener today, the awkward-shaped 26 year old who started off his career playing for a Yankees’ minor league affiliate. Widener has looked solid in 2 starts so far, owning a 2.45 ERA. His minor league stint showed a lot of promise until 2019, where the numbers took a sharp downward turn. Scherzer has never lost to the Diamondbacks and I expect him to out-play the young Widener, who was still learning basic math when Scherzer earned his first start in the majors. Those Nationals’ bats are certainly due a little positive regression, too. This feels like a great spot for the home team to flex.
Giants win (-134), 1.5 units: Ya gotta love what we’ve seen from Anthony DeSclafani so far. Then again, I like what I see from the Giants pitching in general. San Francisco sits at 3rd overall in runs earned against per game, 4th overall at hits allowed per 9 innings, and 5th overall at walks + hits per inning pitched, all categories that show how strong San Francisco’s defense and pitching has been thus far. DeSclafani is a big part of those results. The former Reds starter and 30 year old looks to be in his prime. So far he’s pitched 11 innings over 2 games, earned a 0.82 ERA, a 2.04 FIP, has allowed no homeruns, and has only allowed 10 hits while striking out 12. Showing a command reminiscent of his 2016 year in Cincinnati, DeSclafani has only permitted 1 lonely run in 2021. We like that heading into a matchup with the Marlins. Miami couldn’t find their bats to start the season but a little trip to Hot-Lanta did them some good, scoring an outrageous 31 runs in 4 games. Of course one abysmal pitching contest that amounted to 14 runs, 22 total on the day, in game 2 of that series had something to do with that. Miami is mid-tier in batting average and low-to-mid-tier in slugging percentage but they certainly have talent. Jesus Aguilar seems to always find a way to get on base and Adam Duvall already has 4 homeruns. Miami rolls out reserve picture Daniel Castano today, who looked good last year. In 2020, Castano posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 29.2 innings during seven appearances and 6 starts. Not too shabby. In what should be a low scoring affair, I still see the value on San Francisco. Their defense and pitching has been excellent and I don’t think it’s a fluke– they know how to keep the game within reach and should be able to control this one. Give me the surprising, upstart Giants to snag another W behind DeSclafani.
Dodgers first 5 (-150), 2 units: The Dodgers are motivated and able to overcome games against teams they routinely beat, which is easier said than done over such a long season, so how motivated will they be tonight against the hyped up Padres? Very. Walker Buehler picked right up where he left off last year– he looks fantastic– posting a 1.50 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 2 starts so far. In 2 wins and 12 innings of play, he’s struck out 8 hitters and only allowed 10 hits. The Padres draft choice Ryan Weathers looks the part– he’s a 21 year old hot-shot with solid velocity and command, but this is a big spot for the youngster. I’m sure San Diego will be ready to roll out their bullpen, which is one of the best in baseball, but Weathers has held his own in 3 games. He’s permitted only 2 hits over six innings and he’s struck out 7 at bat. Over 1 strikeout per inning in the majors so far? Not bad. This spot and LAD’s bats are too much for most pitchers in MLB, though, especially when Justin Turner mans the plate. Turner simply cannot be stopped so far. In 13 games he already has 4 homeruns, 14 RBIs and yields a .432 batting average. And it’s not like the rest of the Dodger’s lineup is subpar- they lead the majors in most offensive categories. I’ll fade the bullpen competition and go with the red-hot champs against a rookie pitcher. It just makes good sense, doesn’t it?
We have a great show for you today! Kiev goes solo to discuss his WAY TO EARLY college football top 10 power ratings and what he looks for when making them. First, Kiev attempts to answer a great listener/member question from Allen Stoye about how humidors affect baseballs and if they should be accounted for when handicapping MLB games. Then, Kiev talks about his top 10 power rated teams with a quick preview of each team listed. Finally, Kiev gets into some UFC on ESPN 22 with some plays and predictions. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
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I am going to keep this a little short and sweet. Both of these teams are not known for offense but there has been some improvement thus far for the Tigers who went from ranking 25th in weighted runs created + to 13th so far this year. Oakland has actually regressed from 15th to 24th respectively but what I am looking at is the pitching in this situation. The wind is blowing out at a modest 8 miles per hour in Oaktown and Detroit Pitcher Tarik Skubal has a bad 7.4 FIP to start the season with a 62% fly ball rate. Skubal’s FB% in 2020 was also high at 54%. I can see some home runs being hit by the Athletics today. I also think that Detroit can put up some runs due to the fact that Oakland’s bullpen has been bad and starting pitcher Sean Manaea is a lefty while the Tigers had the number 1 WRC+ against LFP away last year at 163. Gonna take the over 8 runs.
The Knicks saved the day yesterday, the Heat will have to provide more than 18 points of offense in a quarter if they want a chance to win in the playoffs. Unleash Herro! Onto my Thursday picks or as we like to call them, my Friday Eve selections!
Bucks -4 (-115), 1.5 units: With or without Giannis (I hope it’s with him, obviously), the Bucks should easily win this game. Atlanta will still be more beat-up and if Milwaukee does start Giannis, we’re at a real advantage here at this number. This is not a good matchup for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of those rare units that, although talented, play at a bottom third tempo (21st) and play bottom third defense (20th). That’s not a good recipe against the Bucks. The Bucks live and die by fast-paced accelerant offense. Of course this is where Giannis usually eats defenders alive, but the Bucks are top 5 in offensive efficiency and not solely because of their star. They’re top 5 in rebounding ratio and top 5 in true shooting percentage, too, a qualified metric from Hollinger’s ratings that gives a more accurate depiction of a team’s overall shooting ability. Milwaukee needs to keep stacking up wins in the hopes that they finish #1 or #2 in the Eastern Conference. The team that doesn’t will have a tougher road. I’ll take the Bucks to cover.
Parlay- 1st quarter only, Warriors -2 and total over 57, 1 unit to win 2.5 units: Consider a prop bet on Steph Curry, too. Curry has been an absolute lightning rod the Golden State. Over their last 6 games, 4 of which they’ve won, Curry has averaged an incredible 40.5 points. Almost single-handily willing his team to victories, this is a Steph Curry worthy of MVP talk and one that shows no sign of slowing down (Kerr needing to block Curry from re-entering the game last night is a pretty solid indication of how hungry he is right now). The Warriors blew out the Thunder last night, scoring 147 points, and Curry didn’t play in the 4th quarter. I love Golden State to carry that momentum into today. Use this as a single bet on one side or take em both at the same time for a sweet parlay– I think they both hit, easily.
Celtics/Lakers under 213 (-110), 1.5 units: This line feels too high to me. Even without Davis and Lebron, the Lakers have remained the #1 defense in the NBA. Andre Drummond is a force, too, and he’ll get even better as he rounds into form with his new team. The Celtics, for all the shit I give them, have been playing really good defense lately. They made it extremely difficult for the Blazers to get into any sort of rhythm in their last contest. Their foe tonight doesn’t present too intimidating either. The Lakers are beat up but they’re a proud franchise with a great culture and I expect them to be as stingy as always. The Celtics are approaching a top 10 defense rating and they’re 10th overall in points allowed per game; LAL is 2nd. Take the under.
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers 10:00pm estPICK(CELTICS-6)
If I was an NBA coach or GM, I would not want to be in Boston’s way right now. They have finally played like they should be a contender for the Finals. They have won 4 in a row, two of those on the road, and three of those four teams being playoff teams, one being the Denver Nuggets. A Lakers team without their two stars should not be able to compete tonight. Momentum is a hard thing to stop, and a coach like Brad Stevens is going to be able to keep these players here at this level.
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers 8:00pm estPICK(WARRIORS-6)
Golden State is another one of those teams playing with fire and momentum. They have won 4 of their last 5, and are currently running on a three game win streak. The real MVP this year should be Steph Curry. This man night in, and night out is scoring about 31 points a game, and is solely carrying this Warriors squad to playoff contention. With the Warriors chasing a playoff spot, and Cleveland not having any defense at all, Curry and the Warriors should have another big win.
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns 10:00pm est PICK(SUNS-12.5)
The Suns can arguably be considered the best team in the Western Conference. The Suns are 39-15, and they are playing a struggling 22 win kings team. The backcourt duo of Book and CP3, is continuing to show NBA disbelievers that they are legit. The Suns are a deep team, and scrappy. They can easily win this game by 25-30 points tonight. Sacramento played last night and got beat up by the Wizards. I don’t see the front office of Sacramento wanting to risk their younger players health because lack of contention for playoffs, so with that being said workload might come into effect, and players like Fox and Buddy Hieldmight be limited minutes.
