Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals 7:00pm estPICK(Capitals-345)
The Capitals are not only the hottest team in the league, they are also one of the best. Ovie has 22 goals and has continued to live up to his nickname “The Great Eight”. This Washington team is playing a Buffalo team who just lost Jack Eichel for the season, and has traded any real talent they had. Yes, we are laying juice here with that -345, but it is still a good value at this price.
Sebastian Aho and his Carolina team need to rebound fast. They went from being #1 in the NHL to dropping back to back games against a very bad Detroit Red Wings team. Mind you they lost to a last place team at home on back to back nights. With Nashville starting its road slate tonight, I look to see Carolina recover and win in a very convincing matter. Hard to lose 3 in a row at home.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins 7:00pm estPICK(Penguins-160)
The Flyers have really begun to derail here as of late. They went from making a solid playoff push, to dropping 8 of their last 10 games. They have looked morally defeated, and don’t even seem to have motivation to make a playoff run. Tonight against a hot Penguins team who has won three in a row, will just be another bad day for Philly. Sid the Kid has been fantastic and Pittsburgh just very well might take home the win in this in state rivalry.
Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings 7:30pm est PICK (Blackhawks-160)
Detroit somehow managed to steal two wins in Carolina. Don’t believe the hype. The Hurricanes looked so awful in these two games, that if Detroit didn’t win I would have been shocked. Trust me, because I had my own picks on Carolina twice, and as I watched these games on my nice ESPN+, I was disgusted. It was bad hockey on both sides of the ice, I mean literally Carolina hit the puck out of the ice twice, to force a 5 on 3 power play. And it took Detroit till the final seconds of that power play to score. This Blackhawks team, who is chasing a playoff berth is going to shut that type of hockey down. I would not be surprised if Chicago wins by margin.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals 7:05pm estPICK: (NATIONALS-172)
The Nationals are a team that we did not predict to struggle like this. They are currently 3-6 and have gotten roughed up in some of their losses. But I am here to tell you not to worry. All six of their losses have come to teams who are expected to make playoffs, and two of those teams are poised to win the World Series. This is a golden opportunity for Washington to rack up wins against a bland Arizona team. The Diamondbacks best hitters are left handed hitters, Kole Calhoun, David Peralta, and yes Ketel Marte is a switch hitter but he is a better hitter on the left side. This is a game for Patrick Corbin to rebound. This year Arizona has been able to record 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in 12 games against right handed pitching. Against left handed pitching the numbers are substantially low, in 10 games they only have 3 home runs and 17 RBIs. Washington should be able to sweep Arizona in this home series.
The absurd week in MLB continues, but we’re still hitting at 58% overall. Onto Thursday, cuz that’s allllll we can do is move on!
Mets/Phillies Run in 1st Inning? No (-150), 1.5 units: Well with the way this season is going, with the best pitcher in baseball on the mound for the Mets, that makes me want to bet on Philly. Right? I mean, makes sense, doesn’t it? Or definitely in the first 5 innings against deGrom. Yup, that makes the most sense. But seriously, I find myself doubting the numbers and doubting what should happen in games like this, because that’s just how absurd and asinine some of these early results have been. But then I remind myself of how we’re all supposed to be betting in the first place. Where is the value? What the best bet on this game? Is there a best bet on this game? As much as I want “lay the points” and the ML on the Mets and just choke out the money, I can’t. Philly is more than capable of hitting on even the best pitchers in MLB, and Zach Eflin, although steadily average throughout his career, can’t be too intimidated by the 26th ranked scoring Mets, although NYM has improved on their team batting average as the short season has progressed. Philadelphia has really struggled in this series, only scoring 4 runs over 3 games, including getting shutout against Stroman in the second game of a doubleheader. The temperature is chilly and windy today in Queens, NY, with rain approaching before first pitch and predicted to downpour again right around the game’s end. With deGrom on the dirt, the Phillies’ hitting and scoring woes, and some hopeful command from Eflin, who had 2 very different looking starts to the season, I’ll predict no runs in the 1st. The inflated juice and number, although not ideal, tells me this is probably the right side.
Game 1 of the Mariners/O’s: First 5 Over 5 (-110), 1.5 units and Game 1 over 7 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets. I don’t trust either one of these pitchers. Tom Fornelli from CBS Sports put it best on Baltimore’s Matt Harvey, “Since 2016, Harvey has pitched 421.1 MLB innings. He has an ERA of 5.81 and a WHIP of 1.505 in that span. He has been a fringe starter at best. Now he’s in Baltimore because Baltimore’s rebuilding and hoping to find a lottery ticket. Just like the Reds, Angels and Royals did before them. And maybe this year is different! Harvey has an ERA of 5.59 after two starts this season, but his FIP is a respectable 3.24. It could be the year he recaptures the magic. Or he’s the same guy we’ve seen the last five seasons. I’m betting on the latter.” The Mariners’ Marco Gonzalez isn’t much better. One of the worst starting pitchers thus far through 2 games, Gonzalez has allowed a staggering 17 hits and 12 runs over 10 innings. There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll see some positive regression, 2019 and 2020 were solid years, with low HR ratios and BAPIB scores and an ERA of 3.99 and 3.10, but his decreasing velocity and startling lack of command thus far isn’t a good sign. The only thing that concerns me here is how Baltimore hits a leftie– there’s not enough data to make a good call on that one. Either way, Seattle and Baltimore’s bats are shaky and inconsistent at best, but this is ideal weather for hitters today in Charm City (65 degrees, low wind, high humidity) and both squads are in the bottom 5 in earned run average allowed already in 2021. Bet the overs.
Padres First 5 innings -0.5 (-105), 1 unit: Well, heading into this week it looked like Chris Paddack might be the weakest link of the 2021 Padres rotation. While Snell and Musgrove were looking unhittable and with clean games from Yu Darvish in the bank, Paddack couldn’t stay on the mound. The 6’5″ 25 year old got in just just eight innings of work in 2 games, allowing 5 earned runs while striking out six and walking four. Now, 3 games into the series and down 1-2, Paddack is the only chance the Padres have to avenge and tie up this series. Well, not the only chance. The Padres still own arguably the best bullpen in MLB, but it’s been getting tried and tested more against a Pirates team that’s getting hot behind their bats. I think Paddack can still turn things around. Not long ago, young Paddack was one of the more exciting pitchers in 2019, finishing the season 0.981 WHIP over 26 games. His velocity is still above-average and he’s due for some positive regression. Here’s to a bet that he can slow down the Pirates in the first half of this game. He’s gotta be ultra-motivated to do so.
Dodgers -1.5 (-110), 2 units: What am I stupid? I’ll keep betting this until it doesn’t work. Better pitching, sensational and limit-setting defense even when they allow hits (the Rockies equaled the Dodgers in hits last night, but LAD still covered the run line), and consistent, powerful hitting. Austin Gomber has looked good so far this year but as usual, I don’t think it matters. This is just a considerably better ballclub in LA.
It’s an exciting day to bet the association with a ton of games to choose from. We have a few marquee matchups and teams who are starting to feel the pressure of the impending playoff race. The good Lord (or mother earth or Zeus or whatever you believe in) gave me a nice sweet dose of humble pie yesterday, sending my picks to 0-3 overall. I have a good feeling about today’s comeback. Onto the picks!
Lean, Nets +8 (-110): Oh look, Durant won’t play tonight. Eye rollllllll. If you listened to my podcast, you know how I feel about shit like this. I won’t rant here, but the signals NBA players and coaches send to fans in decisions like this are glaring. They don’t care. Good, because we think you’re idiots and you’re losing our respect. Aldridge and Griffin are sitting out of this game, too. Regardless, the Nets still have more than enough firepower to keep this game close. Brooklyn beat Philadelphia with their b-team before; I don’t think that happens tonight, but the Kyrie Irving led Nets could certainly be feisty and competitive. Neither team really needs this game, so it’s reasonable to imagine the Sixers resting or sitting players more often than usual. There won’t be the playoff feel we all wanted to see, unfortunately. I think Nets side has more value but, it’s just a lean.
Spurs -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Most books have this line around 5 or 5.5 now, which is a bet I still like. This is a play on a much more consistent team who should be plenty motivated as they fight for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Since the All-Star break, Toronto is a sad 4-15. Losers of 4 of their last 5 games and with Freddie VanFleet likely to remain out, arguably their most dependable scorer, the Raptors have to be struggling to find anything to get excited or motivated for. Away from home in the perpetually distracting land of Florida, I wouldn’t blame Lowry and company if they were more interested in beers on the beach than any chance at resurrecting this season. It’s not going to happen, especially not with well-balanced teams like the Pacers and Knicks guarding their playoff spots. San Antonio is healthy and ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan loves playing against his former team, averaging 22 points and over 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 5 reunion games against the Raptors. Toronto is also terrible at securing defensive rebounds, ranking near the very bottom of the league in DRR (defensive rebound rate). That’s an issue for a disciplined Spurs team that sticks to their assignments and knows how to capitalize on another team’s mistakes. It’s not surprising that Popovich’s team is ranked #1 in the NBA in turnover ratio. Bet the Spurs.
Knicks win (+120), 1.5 units: This is the fourth game in 5 days for the Knicks, who have now won 3 games in a row, and they hope to keep their playoff aspirations alive tonight against the surging Pelicans. Also winners of 3 straight, the Pelicans recently had an impressive win over Philly before taking care of bottom-feeders in the Cavs and Kings. The Knicks 3-game win streak is a little more impressive. A tough fought OT-forced victory over Memphis and then an overwhelming defensive flex against LAL has New York gaining more confidence again after a slump in early April.
New York will be able to control this game. One thing that the Knicks do really well, and it confuses and throws off good offenses, is play at a horrifically slow pace. Horrific for the opponent, that is. No one in the NBA allows less points than New York, they’re top 3 in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s metrics, and they play at the slowest tempo (30th) in the association. I’ve said it all year and I’ll say it again– the Pelicans thrive when and only when they can assert themselves down the court. Throughout the season, their tempo has increased. In the winter they were sitting in the deep 20s in pace; now they sit at 14th overall. And as most of us know, they really struggle on defense. Despite Zion and Adams’ ability to snag rebounds, and they’re damn good at it, something gets lost on the defensive end. Gaping holes and disjointed schemes has New Orleans ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed per game. Julius Randle and RJ Barrett and are becoming a dynamic scoring duo. The Knicks are averaging 115 ppg during their win-streak and that was against top 10 defenses in Memphis, Toronto and LAL. What will they do to New Orleans? This is a bad matchup for the Pelicans, even for the burgeoning superstar in Zion Williamson. Julius Randle is not intimidated or afraid of Zion’s abilities and he’ll test the youngster tonight. Knicks win.
Heat +6 (-110), 2 units: I called this out on my podcast and I’m sticking to it. I know the Heat are on a really tough road stretch right now. They’re facing two of the Western Conference titans in back-to-back nights in Phoenix and now Denver; quite a tall task. But I love the Miami side tonight and this line is telling us the books respect Miami, too. Jamal Murray’s injury, although I don’t think it spells death and destruction for Denver’s potential, is not a small loss. The 24 year old was averaging a solid 21.2 ppg for his team and despite playing through injuries all year, has a knack for making clutch shots and getting to the foul line when it matters most. Who’s going to make up for those 21 points? Certainly Jokic can contibute even more, but Aaron Gordon is not a natural scorer. He’s a great role-player, but not a offensive-magnate by any means. Dozier and Barton? Meh. Look, the Nuggets are still a really good team, but I love how resilient and tough Miami is. Do you think there was any chance, ANY chance, that Miami’s starters would be sitting tonight for “rest.” Hell no. Jimmy Butler leads Miami with an attitude and grit that’s hard to measure and they’ll bring it tonight. As tough as this road stretch for Miami is, their next game is in 2 days against Minnesota. That’s nothing exhausting to think about. I also love that Tyler Herro is playing more minutes and starting to gain some steam. According to SportsKeeda, Herro has scored 18 ppg and shot 49% from the field, including 41% from beyond the arc, in his last 7 games. The young man may be rounding into playoff form and that’ll be needed for a Heat lineup that, at times, struggles to keep up with good offensive teams like the Nuggets. This game should be testy and lower scoring (total is set at 209 and it’s right)– that makes me favor the dog, especially a dog that knows how to play defense.
Live bet the Wizards/Kings game: Like I mentioned in my podcast that posted today, this is a wait and see type of game. The total is appropriately huge at 242 but it will instantly fluctuate once this game starts. If these teams get off to insane offensive beginnings and end up scoring 65-70+ in the first two quarters, look to play a live under. The total should move close to or into the 250s. If these two squads act like they suddenly understand how to play defense and/or the scoring starts off slow, bet the over on a deflated number. I would also bet contrarian in the third quarter. In other words, if the points are piling up in the first half, bet the third quarter under as long as it’s reasonable (58.5, 59.5, etc.). If they start sluggish and if there’s below-average scoring in the first half, bet that third quarter to fly over. Check me out on Twitter during this game– I’ll try my best to immediately jump on and share the side I’m on.
Well I opted out of writing a free play article on MLB yesterday and I’m glad I did! What a crazy day to bet. A TON of favorites got pummeled (Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Rays), including some abysmal performances by ace pitchers. Although it can’t be expected in totality–each game is its own entity– you can expect at least some regression to the mean today. I hope to capitalize on that. Here are my Wednesday picks!
NYY/TOR- Will There be a Run Scored in the 1st Inning? NO (+105), 1 unit and Blue Jays win the first 5 innings (+105), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. I’m getting plus money for no 1st inning runs? Only one Yankees game has had a run scored in the first inning so far this year. I’ll take it. The Yankees’ new high-profile pitcher Corey Kluber hasn’t had the start to the 2021 season that he envisioned. His velocity is down, he’s already allowed multiple homeruns, his ERA sits at a bleak .568 and in his last outing, and he allowed 5 runs in just 2.1 innings. Is something still wrong with Kluber? Maybe. I read a great article on SB Nation that talks about his recent injuries– a fractured forearm and torn teres major muscle, which inhibited both his 2019 and 2020 seasons. In that sense, and I don’t know what more we were all expecting, it’s understandable that the guy isn’t off to a soaring start. The SB Nation article outlined what we are not appropriately perceiving and Yankees’ fans certainly aren’t hoping for, that “if you’re hanging on the ‘it’s early and he’s always been a slow starter’ points, you’re referencing the recent Cy Young Award winner who was young and healthy. The current subject under discussion is a 35-year-old coming off two serious arm injuries and 43 subpar innings across three years.” This is reality for Kluber and the Yankees, and it’s why I have to take the Blue Jays in the first 5 innings. Toronto is finding their bats lately, ranking 13th overall now with 4.45 runs per game, and as the innings go on, Kluber’s arm should experience the same exhaustion and regression as we saw in his first two starts. Cheers to the guy– let’s hope the body repairs itself over time and we see a more youthful Kluber as the season goes on. That being said, I’ll hedge that angle and put a bet on the Yankees/Blue Jays not scoring at all in the 1st inning. Despite Kluber’s issues, he hasn’t allowed a point in his 2 starts in the first inning of play. Ross Stripling is on the dirt for Toronto today and he’s certainly due for some improvement, too. He’s thrown for an abysmal 7.56 ERA in 2 showings. Expect Kluber and Stripling to play over their heads, at least for the first 6 outs.
Brewers (-164), 2 units: This is a straight play on Corbin Burnes and a straight fade on Jake Arrieta. Burnes has been ablaze thus far for Milwaukee. The 26 year old right hander all but shut out the Cardinals in his last outing, one of the more impressive offensive teams thus far in MLB, and in 2 games he owns a 0.73 ERA and 1.44 FIP. Maybe what’s more impressive is the significant increase in velocity on his four-seam curve ball. The 2021 version of Burnes is clocking in nearly a full 2 mph greater than his 2020 average at 97.7 mph. The Cubs have the worst batting average in MLB and score the fewest runs per game– how are they going to hit THIS version of Burnes? This is a great setup for Corbin. Contrarily, I love fading Arrieta in spots like this. Under mounted pressure Arietta has a history of getting rocked and it’s likely he’ll have to hone a rare command today with Burnes looming in the shadows. Arietta’s numbers so far are great, a 2.25 ERA over 2 games, but you can expect the 35 year old to devolve as the season progresses. We’ve seen it before. Is it possible that he blanks the Brewers today? Sure. But I’ll need a bigger sample size to trust Arietta in the long-term. For now, I’ll go with the command and electric velocity of Burnes, not to mention the plenty more-able hitters in Milwaukee’s lineup.
Indians/White Sox under 7.5 (-120), 1.5 units: Cleveland and Chicago, although far from being bad hitting teams, aren’t exactly juggernauts on offense. Cleveland unders have now hit 4 games in a row and the 2 games in this series, which Chicago’s weather can’t be helping, have been much nicer to the guys on the mound. That sets up really well for two starters who have had excellent starts to their 2021 seasons. Zach Plesac enters this game playing 13 innings over 2 games, allowing only 9 hits, no homeruns, and flexing a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The 26 year old flubs at times and his velocity isn’t the scariest for a young thrower, but Plesac’s command has been as consistent as it gets in his 3 year career. Carlos Rodon was held out of his second starting job due to an illness, but he’s back after a solid 5 innings in his first start, boasting a 0.00 ERA (you love to see it) and only 2 hits against the Mariners on April 5th. This line is getting the juice it deserves– the wind is a-blowin’ again in the White City and this feels like another slowly forming game with 2 teams struggling to get on base. I’m on the under.
Dodgers -1.5 (-120), 2 units: It’s the squarest pick in baseball but so what? You still win money off it! One of my few MLB wagers and angles that I actually was right on yesterday was my play on the Dodgers -1.5. Trevor Bauer looked electric and man, those Dodgers bats cannot be stopped right now. Rated #1 in many offensive categories and with even better starting pitchers, not to mention a more experienced bullpen this year, LAD is already (clearly) the best team in baseball. Dustin May gets the nod for the home team after a nice opener against the Athletics, where he allowed only 2 hits in six innings, holding Oakland scoreless. The young stud is only getting better. He showed off a four-seam fastball that got very close to the 100 mph mark and a 98.6 mph sinker curve in his first start. Colorado has really struggled to find their bats lately and away from Coors field, they’ve only scored 4 runs in their last 4 games (and contributed a big goose egg in their last 2 games). Six-year starter Jon Gray has had a very nice start to his 2021, including a 6.2 inning no-hitter against the D-Backs, but this is quite the level-up in competition. Dodgers bats have had no issue hitting Gray in the past and they won’t tonight either. Maybe at Coors, not in SoCal. Square, boring, don’t care– Dodgers run line baby.
Check out the very first Laying the Points with FarleyBets podcast here at TheOddsBreakers! Chris provides an intro and discusses the structure and format of the podcast, and then he breaks down some lookahead NBA games for you to consider betting this week.
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DUNEDIN, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 27: Hyun-Jin Ryu #99 of the Toronto Blue Jays in the dugout after pitching in the second inning during the spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at TD Ballpark on February 27, 2020 in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
NY Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays -110 O/U 9
Toronto came into this season with a lot of hype here but they have not really showed all that well with the bats ranking only 24th in WRC+ and 26th in OPS. Could that get better today? Maybe, but Jameson Taillon has been a pretty good pitcher with a 3.8 FIP last year vs the Pirate’s. Ryu has the helm today for the Bluejays who’s FIP number speaks for itself at 3.01 last year. Now Ryu is a lefty and you might think that is a good thing for the Yankees but they only average 22nd against lefties away from home in WRC+ and last year they ranked 21st respectively. I am not sure how many runs the BlueJays will score here but I think taking a shot at the under here makes some sense at the even money.
A 3-0 start to the week– can’t hate that! Unfortunately I don’t like many of today’s games, but here’s my attempt to find some value and something for YOU to bet on!
Timberwolves first half +4 (-115), 1.5 units: After what happened in Minneapolis, I think it’s fair to say that the fans and team that represent the Twin City will be pretty amped up for this contest. Durant will do his thing but he’ll have restricted minutes, while Kyrie is sitting out (shocker), and Harden is still injured. Aldridge was also announced as out for this matchup. At least in the first half, Minnesota is a very live dog in a good spot, at home, to either be ahead or keep this competitive.
Pacers win (+135), 1 unit: This is a nice little sandwich spot for Indiana. The Pacers have now won 3 in a row and they’re feelin’ themselves after a big road victory over Memphis, a team that was primed in a revenge spot and couldn’t get it done. Kawhi Leonard is out tonight for LAC and although Paul George and company are more than enough to overwhelm most teams, this game means considerably more to Indiana. Jockeying for the playoffs and below .500 on the year, every game counts right now for the Pacers and that’s an angle we like to play on. Meanwhile, Tyronn Lue and the Clippers don’t care enough about this game to start their star (Ibaka is out and Beverly may be, too) so why should I assume this road game is circled on their calendar? It’s not. LAC faces Detroit on the road tomorrow night, another let-down spot, before a prime showdown against Philly on Friday. I’ll take a shot on Indiana to take full advantage.
Blazers -1 (-110), 2 units: This is an interesting game. Two star-dependent and shot-dependent teams face off Tuesday night, and both squads are dying to earn a little more respect. Boston has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5 heading into tonight, although their last victory was anything but deserving. Mike Malone, as I’m sure you know, pulled out Jokic and other Nuggets starters late in the 3rd quarter of their game against the Celtics Sunday and Boston completely blew them out from that point on. I mean they got out-scored 31-8 in the fourth quarter. Pathetic. I hope that gave the mean-green a feeling of inflated jubilation, ‘cuz get ready for that to be DEflated tonight. The Blazers just got punked by a motivated Heat team 2 nights ago, at home, and me thinks that doesn’t sit well with Portland. Damian Lillard and the Blazers already know they have issues on defense but to not muster or scheme a way to overcome Miami’s defense isn’t a good sign for a team that has high aspirations in May and June. That’s playoff defense and it’s something Portland will need to figure out before it gets too late. Thanks to some inferior opponents, Boston has played better on defense lately, but I don’t think Portland is too worried about it. The Celtics travel to LA to face the Lakers Thursday, while the Blazers will get 3 days rest after tonight. Although they have plenty of flaws, Portland plays with more chemistry and they’re in a better spot Tuesday. I like Damian to go off, too– he loves to show off when up against other All-Stars. Bet Portland.
In case you didn’t see my mini rant on Twitter, let me just restate that what the Nuggets did last night, pulling Jokic late in the 3rd and allowing the Celtics to completely flip the script, was criminal. Fans and bettors across America (wake up, league heads) are invested every single day into these games. The Nuggets were the right side. They dominated Boston with their starters in the lineup. The fact that Denver not only didn’t cover but lost and couldn’t hold up as a parlay leg was insanity. And it’s why football will always be king. The NBA has too many games, too little commitment from its diva players, and it leads to frustrating endings like Sunday. I’ll try to be as mindful as possible but these events are tough to predict. Anyway, even bad beats and bad coaching couldn’t keep us from a decent day– the Sunday post went 2-2 and resulted in positive units. Onto Monday.
Knicks -2 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a much better spot for the Knicks and let’s face it, they need it more. New York has now had two impressive wins in a row, willing themselves in the latter parts of the Memphis and Toronto games to ensure a victory. A big part of that is because of their starters. RJ Barrett has been playing some truly elite basketball. Showing his growth and maturation, the 2nd year Knicks guard doesn’t force shots, is very efficient from the field, and serves as a patient facilitator and leader on the hardwood. Court general Julius Randle and Barrett make a great 1-2 punch in the game’s most high-pressure moments. Heading into Friday’s Memphis game, the Knicks had lost 5 of their last 6 games. They can’t afford to go on another streak like that. The Lakers had an incredible game 2 nights ago at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, which yours truly and hopefully my readers made some good coin off of. When the Lakers are big underdogs like that, with or without their stars in the game, it’s a good bet to make. They still have coach Lebron on the sideline and more importantly, because of King James, there’s an “old-school just-bring-it” attitude in every contest. As much as I love their gumption, they’re on a really tough road stretch now. I think this game flies under, but I like the Knicks side more. They’re healthy, at home, and won’t underestimate LAL like the Nets did.
Grizzlies -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The Bulls will get exposed tonight. For all the trials Memphis has had, and those last two games were true heart-breakers, this is the break they need. Check out my article from yesterday on their game against the Pacers, which I feel they should have won; the Grizzlies should take the same fire and motivation into tonight. It started to show up in the 2nd half but it was too late against Indiana. The Grizzlies are an incredibly balanced team that play very effective defense and have more than enough firepower on offense to keep up with teams that can score a ton of points like Chicago. But I don’t think the Bulls will thrive tonight. Chicago has really struggled since they added Vucevic to their roster, a move that looked great on paper, as they’ve lost 8 of their last 11 games. This is also their fifth road game in a row. Few teams cover like the Grizzlies (they’re 59.3% ATS at home and 60.8% overall, which is 3rd best in the NBA), and they’ll do it again tonight.
Lean, 76ers -3: Just a lean because Dallas is thirsty for a win too, but Luka Doncic was held to only 19 points and 4 assists, one of his most unproductive games of the year, the last time he faced Philadelphia. He also turned the ball over 5 times. That’s called the Ben Simmons effect, which often gets underrated. Philly is absolutely the all-around better team, but Dallas can pull out some unexpected wins, as we’ve learned.
Pelicans win (-130), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky line with the Pelicans listed as only 3 point favorites, and we all know they have their challenges covering ATS (45.3% on the year), but the Kings have been getting SMOKED lately. They’ve now lost 6 in a row by an average of 12.3 point margins. One glaring difference between Sacramento and New Orleans is the way they rebound. The Pelicans have the #1 offensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate in the NBA. Sacramento is dead last in defensive rebounding. That will mean a ton of second-change opportunities and probably a huge game from Zion. I expect the Pelicans to at least win. Don’t blow it, New Orleans!
We’re over 2 weeks into MLB and after plenty of surprises, we’re holding strong with a 20-16 overall record (55.5%). Expect some positive regression as the true potential and identities of these ballclubs becomes more glaring. Happy Monday!
Red Sox (+130), 1.5 units: Hell yea, I’ll take some plus money on the Red Sox. This is a wager more about Boston’s offense, not the pitching matchup today, although I do think J.A. Happ is getting a little too much love. The Red Sox are white-hot right now. After losing three straight games at Fenway Park against the Orioles to open up the season, the Red Sox have won 6 in a row since then. During that winning span, they’ve averaged an incredible 9 runs per game. Through 9 games, they have a +15 run differential, which is tough to do after only scoring 5 runs in their first 3 games, and they’re now 3rd overall in slugging and batting average in MLB. Martin Perez gets the nod for Boston today and he’s had a serviceable 2021 thus far. The 30 year old leftie has a solid .255 FIP, though he did allow 3 earned runs on 5 hits through six innings in his first outing. The Rays were in need of a win and came out hotter than usual last Tuesday against Perez, so I don’t feel that bad about his performance. Perez’s arm looked healthy and despite allowing a few runs, his command was steady. Minnesota’s J.A. Happ played really well in his first start against Detroit. The 38 year old journeyman allowed 1 run in four innings, securing a 2.25 ERA, although his velocity has experienced a noticeable dip. The 1x All-Star has held up against the test of time, but not long ago in 2019, Happ allowed a league-leading 34 home runs and posted one of the worst ERAs of his career. Fans in the Bronx weren’t sad to see him go. I worry a little about the splits between these teams against lefties– the Twins are easily better in slugging and batting average– and this spot certainly favors Minnesota. They’re at home and need to win after two bad losses to Seattle. On top of that, Happ has had plenty of success against the Red Sox in the past. Still, despite all those angles, I’ve watched the Red Sox destroy good pitching on the Rays and underrated pitchers for the O’s. They’re confident and clearly have no issue punking teams on the road. If Perez can hold up through the first half, and he’s certainly capable, the Twins might get caught in a boat-race they can’t win. It’s a sloppy and windy day in Minnesota, so this should be a game won by clear-minded hitters who can find a better ball. I’m on Boston.
Yankees -1.5 (-125), 2 units: I’m building off yesterday’s post here and taking another spot on the Yankees. Like I said in Sunday’s article, this is what the Yankees do. They look awful, don’t capitalize on opportunities, they have questionable pitching and despite their talent, they go on insane cold streaks. Until they don’t. Robbie Ray makes his first start for the Blue Jays in 2021 today. Ray had his season delayed because of a bruised elbow so I can’t help but be concerned about his health and endurance on the mound. And it’s not like Ray has been a great pitcher as of late. After a solid 2017 and 2018, Ray has really struggled in recent seasons, displaying sub-optimal ERAs and allowing a ton of homeruns. He’ll go up against Gerrit Cole, who again is posting fantastic numbers and may be the most consistently dominant pitcher not named deGrom in MLB right now. There’s no reason why the Yankees shouldn’t cover this run-line bet.
Brewers win (-125), 2 units: This is a pretty square pick and I’m not apologizing for it. The Brewers found their bats recently but they’ve been winning thanks to some terrific pitching. Freddy Peralta absolutely dominated the Cubs over five innings last Tuesday. When Peralta or one of their other aces can perform in such commanding fashion, it’s really hard to beat Milwaukee. Full of young dynamic talent, the Brewers have one of the best bullpens in MLB. Chicago’s Adbert Alzolay, on the other hand, got rocked by the Brewers in his last outing, permitting four runs over five innings. Milwaukee’s offense didn’t find any groove until recently and even if they’re not blasting out big hits again Monday, I don’t think it’ll matter. The Cubs have the worst batting average in MLB and after getting whooped by the Pirates, Chicago’s outlook is rather bleak these days. I’d be shocked if they won against this Brewers’ arsenal.
Lean, Royals (+105): This is a good bounce-back spot for Brady Singer, who got clobbered in his first start for Kansas City but had a promising rookie year. In 2020, the 6’5″ 24 year old owned a solid 4.06 ERA and a really impressive .260 BAPIB. He’s due for some positive regression and the Royals are in a good spot at home off an unexpected day of rest. The Angels got obliterated in their last contest but the unplanned day off may have cooled their fire. I don’t trust the very average Alex Cobb here, either. Just a lean since it’s more of an observation game for me, but I think the Royals grab the win.
