We have wonderful show for you today! Chris Farley from The OddsBreakers and Erik Haslam from Haslametrics comes on to break down a huge Friday of game as well as some college basketball bracketology. First, Kiev talks about our free $500 giveaway NCAA tournament bracket challenge that we will put on for our listeners as well as some teams that Kiev wishes could have made the big dance. You can get in right here https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2gq3dmnbtg4ya====?pool-join-key=mqcecj15w3iz10imlo3ge1nj098f77x1&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhi3tinztga3dqmq%3D&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF21_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite. Then, Chris comes on and the guys talk about their final 4 as well as every single game on your Friday card with leans and plays on every single game. Then, Erik Haslam is back on to talk about how the brackets line up. Were there any teams that shouldn’t have been left out? Were there any teams that were miss-seeded? We talk about our Final Fours, some upsets and who will be cutting down the nets! Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
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What a nice start to the week as we went 3-2 overall and gave out a live bet on Charlotte that ended up hitting (man that Sacramento defense can crumble). It’s a rainy day in the Northeast and a perfect setup for more research and and more wins! Let’s get it:
Jazz win (-175), 2 units and Celtics +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Jazz/Celtics under 228 (-115), 1.5 units: We get a marquee matchup and 3 bets in one game to start our Tuesday night with the West-leading Utah Jazz traveling to Boston to lock up with a Celtics team who’s won 5 of their last 6 games. I expect the Jazz to muster some real motivation and win tonight but this should be a close battle. The Celtics are 11-6 ATS this year on their home floor and it feels like they’re finally finding a little rhythm. Their loss to Brooklyn aside, Boston has been able to accumulate good wins recently against solid teams like the Clippers, Raptors, Pacers, and the Wizards in the middle of their hot streak. Utah is in a little slump. The Jazz have won only 2 of their last 6 games– one against the Magic at Orlando and one against the despicable Rockets at home. Utah is 11-9 ATS overall on the road but they’ve dropped 4 out of their last 5 away games. Still, the Jazz are 3rd overall in offensive and defensive efficiency, 2nd in the NBA in rebounds, and 5th in effective field goal percentage– all stats that Boston can’t compare with at this juncture. Utah is the better overall team and their defense should cause problems for Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. We’ve seen what can happen when those two are slowed down– the Celtics just don’t have the depth to recoup their offense. The Jazz are on the 2nd leg of a 5 game road trip, not an ideal spot, but this is a good setup for them since their next 3 games are against lesser foes than Boston. I expect all hands and all focus on deck tonight for Utah. This feels like a game where the Jazz pull ahead by 3-4 points late into the fourth quarter and seal the win with a few free throws. I’ll take Boston’s ATS side, the Jazz to win, and the under in a game that should have a defense-centric playoff feel.
Hawks -9.5 (-105), 2 units: John Wall is undergoing knee surgery, Christian Wood has been upgraded to doubtful but still won’t play, Oladipo- I can’t figure out what he’s doing but I’m guessing he’s playing?- and the Rockets haven’t won a game since February 4th. Whew. Meanwhile, the Hawks are finding themselves. Atlanta is on a nice 5-game winning streak entering Tuesday. Contributions from Hawks’ forward John Collins combined with Trae Young’s enigmatic abilities on offense and Clint Capela’s rebounding and defensive performance has created some buzz in Atlanta. The Rockets haven’t only lost recently, they’ve lost badly. A 21 point loss to Boston, a 20 point loss to Sacramento, an insane 49 point loss to Memphis, a 16 point loss to Cleveland– this is a bad team showing no signs of improving. Houston will also host an angry Warriors team tomorrow, so it’s not like this is an ideal home spot. Short handicap, simple handicap, good handicap– give me the surging Hawks to cover.
76ers -7 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting game. Do the red-hot 76ers keep their 5 game winning streak going and cover this line or do the angry Knicks seek vengeance after last night’s close-loss at Brooklyn and take it out on the Sixers Tuesday? I loved the fire I saw from Julius Randle last night. We correctly picked the Knicks to cover the spread but Randle felt he was robbed of an OT opportunity. He was right– the ball was touched by Brooklyn and that’s why he picked up his dribble– but the bigger point is what we already knew about the Knicks; this isn’t the team we know from recent past. The Knicks are fighters and they can hang with the big boys. It felt like the Nets avoided an upset last night. Unfortunately for New York, Philly is playing some of their best basketball right now. Even without Embiid, Simmons and company are trouncing one team after another. Their comfort playing at home is obvious and begs the question– is it inevitable that the Sixers will land in the Eastern Conference Finals against Brooklyn? Sure seems like it. I really love what I’m seeing from New York, but I don’t like this spot after last night’s crushing loss. This is only a one unit play since Philly plays Milwaukee tomorrow night, but I think the 76ers keep on cruising and cover this number. Their physical style of play fits an opponent like the Knicks, too, unlike the soft finesse of Brooklyn. Bet Philly.
Pelicans/Blazers over 238 (-110), 2 units: This is another handicap that’s not worth over-investigating. The Pelicans learned, again, that they’re capable of great things after they beat up LAC in a redemptive home win 2 nights ago. Well done, New Orleans; now how about we try to be a little more consistent? The Pelicans not only should play better tonight but they’ll be forced to be effective tonight. Portland is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, ranking #8 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s NBA Team Stats on ESPN. Guess who ranks #7? Despite their volatile nature, New Orleans. Portland and New Orleans are equally abysmal on defense, too. Only the Kings rank lower in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both of these teams are healthy. Lillard and Zion should be ready to rock. Portland is due for some positive regression on offense after a hiccup against Minnesota. And this line has moved down too far. Hammer the over.
I’ll be covering the East and Midwest bracket games starting this Friday in the 2021 NCAAM’s Tournament. First, the Midwest (part 1). Let’s dive in!
Drexel/Illinois over 144.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Lean, Drexel +23 (-110): How about them Drexel Dragons? Drexel has earned its first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1996, although they can’t be overly excited about who they drew in the first round. Illinois may be the hottest and most popular team entering the postseason (not called Gonzaga). The Illini are the Big 10 champions, have now won 7 in a row, and they’ve won 14 out of their last 15 games. They’re also stacked with talent, sporting two finalists for the Wooden Award in center Kofi Cockburn and guard Ayo Dosunmu, a combo which averages nearly 40 ppg. Cockburn is a challenge for any team but he may be a particularly daunting task for Drexel’s James Butler. The Dragons’ center stands at only 6’8″ and he’s not an imposing Lebron-like 6’8″ either. On the season, Drexel’s front court has allowed 55.3% of their opponents’ points from inside the arc, yikes. They’re among the worst 40 in the nation in that category. Maybe more unbelievably, they’ve mustered only 45 blocks all season. To say that Kofi Cockburn will eat in this contest feels like a huge understatement. Still, Drexel has to feel like they’re playing with house money. They’re effective on offense and somehow they’ve been shooting over 50% from beyond the arc since February 1; that’s an incredible stat. I think it’s likely that Drexel will come out shooting at will and without hesitation, because well, why not? But I can only lean their side. If Illinois plays poised and motivated, which isn’t a guarantee after their big conference tournament performance, then they should be able to cover. If Illinois’ guards Adam Miller and Trent Frazier are sinking jump shots (on top of Cockburn’s inevitable front court dominance), the Illini could win by 50. The Illinois defense has looked better and better but the Dragons know they need to come out firing to have a chance. I’ll take a shot on the over.
Loyola Chicago -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Loyola-Chicago draws the 8 seed and a matchup against surging Georgia Tech in what I think is the most interesting first game in the Midwest bracket. KenPom ranks the Ramblers as the #1 adjusted defense (KenPom) in the nation to end the season, but they’ll get tested on Friday. Georgia Tech brings a talented roster and an offense that’s scoring 77 ppg during their 8 game winning streak en-route to an ACC Championship win. They also have the ACC player of the year in Moses Wright. He’ll be a great matchup to watch against Cameron Krutwig. Krutwig, the star forward/center for Loyola-Chicago, plays with a Nikola Jokic-like presence. He sees the floor brilliantly, he’s a fantastic passer, and he knows how to use his big frame to score easy buckets. In his four years playing for the Ramblers, he averaged 59% from the field- that’s pretty wild. Moses Wright is sort of the anti-Krutwig. He’s big, agile, athletic, and explosive. It’ll be interesting to see who gains the edge. Georgia Tech also has 3 other players who average over 10 ppg, but their guards will have to deal with the Ramblers’ guard Lucas Williamson, arguably one of the best defenders in the country. Can you already see why I think this game is so intriguing? For me, it all boils down to the spot. Georgia Tech is coming off one of the hottest streaks in their history. They’re a media darling (Josh Pastner only amplified that by 100 in that post-game interview after Saturday’s win- that’s one happy human) and they’re playing well on both ends of the floor. But I see it as a let-down spot. Loyola-Chicago may not get the recognition they deserve but they’re the #9 ranked team on KenPom and #18 on Haslametrics (with a 5th ranked adjusted defense on Haslametrics, too). They’re a disciplined, complete team that doesn’t foul and severely limits their opponents’ output. While the Yellow Jackets enter the tournament feelin’ fat and sassy, the Ramblers must feel disrespected. As much as Georgia Tech has impressed me, I’ll take Loyola-Chicago to prove their legitimacy and cover in the first round. They’re the favorite here for a reason.
Oregon State/Tennessee under 131 (-110), 1 unit: I probably like this game the least out of any game I’ve looked at in the Midwest bracket. Neither team really impresses me. Tennessee is too up and down in the SEC and the Beavers are just as tough to predict. Oregon State has hung with big dogs in the Pac-12 and had an impressive streak en-route to the Pac-12 title, but it is the Pac-12… Colorado and Oregon don’t exactly jump out as real contenders to me. One interesting stat that pops out is Oregon State’s strength of schedule. The Beavers have faced the 80th best adjusted defenses in the country. The Volunteers, who have gone toe to toe against elite SEC offenses like Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU, are ranked #4 in adjusted defense on KenPom. Of course they didn’t fare too well against the SEC’s premiere teams, but the Volunteers’ defense should be a major uptick in class for Oregon State. USC is probably the best defense the Beavers have faced, but I’m not sure how much weight they really carry in the Pac-12. Both of these teams run at a slow tempo, and it’s worth noting that there are 45 better offenses (according to KenPom) better than Tennessee in the NCAA tournament — that could hurt them here. Then again, Oregon State is almost just as pedestrian- they’ll have 43 offenses that are ranked higher than them in the tournament. This feels like a defensive game for all these reasons, so I’ll take a small shot on the under here. That’s about all I could muster for this contest.
Liberty +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Liberty is an all around solid team– they have good shooters (39.2% from beyond the arc), they have experienced leaders, they’re well-coached, and they’re talented on defense, ranked 3rd in the nation in points allowed per game. The Flames have also won 12 in a row. There’s only one problem: the 13th seeded Flames have to face a red-hot Oklahoma State team to start the tournament. Maybe “red-hot” is an overstatement since they lost the Big-12 final against Texas, but Texas is really surging as well. Before that loss, the Cowboys won 8 of their last 9 games. The only game they lost in that span was against Baylor, at Baylor. The Cowboys got the best of the Bears in the Big 12 tourney. Much of OK-State’s success can be credited to the superb play of their star and projected #1 pick in the NBA draft- Cade Cunningham. The 6-foot-8 point guard is averaging 20.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game and he’ll easily be the best player on the floor Friday. The Flames’ junior guard Darius McGhee (15.6 PPG, 41.3% from beyond the arc) leads their methodical offense and has shown an ability to step up in big-game situations. The back and forth between McGhee and Cunningham should be fun to watch. The tempo-war should be interesting, too, since Liberty loves a slow pace (348th in tempo) and the Cowboys tend to play at light speed (43rd in tempo). Can the Flames defense do enough? Can they prevent Cunningham from taking over? Can they score enough to keep up? Well, it’s not like Liberty hasn’t been in this position before. In 2018, the Flames were the 13th seed and knocked off #4 seeded Mississippi State. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Liberty’s coach Ritchie-McKay should have his team fired up. A mentee of Virginia’s Tony Bennett, McKay has his team playing consistent, gritty, and impassioned basketball. Does Oklahoma State win? It’s very likely. But Liberty won’t be an easy out. Give me the Flames to cover in a game that’s closer than people think.
March Madness is here and we have a fantastic show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to fill out his bracket for the 2021 NCAA tournament. First, we talk about our free $500 giveaway NCAA tournament bracket challenge that we will put on for our listeners as well as some teams that Kiev wishes could have made the big dance. You can get in right here https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2gq3dmnbtg4ya====?pool-join-key=mqcecj15w3iz10imlo3ge1nj098f77x1&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhi3tinztga3dqmq%3D&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF21_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite. Next, Kiev talks about some strategy that you could use to fill out your brackets. Then, Kiev fills out his bracket with some upsets and some longshots to at least get to the final four. Finally, Kiev gives us his winner and a free play for men’s basketball this Thursday night. Should you need any games broken down for next week, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a fantastic weekend!
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Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers come into this Monday night matchup winning just one of their last five matchups. Last time out they were completely out played by the New Orleans Pelicans on the road losing by 20. The Clippers have the second best offense and are ranked first in three point percentages at 41.7%. Beverley will be out and Serge Ibaka is listed as questionable.
Luka and his streaking Mavericks are playing almost perfect basketball as of lately. They are winners of four of their last five, and are coming off an impressive win on the road against a tough Denver Nuggets team. Each and everyone of the Mavericks are finding their offensive strides here.
Even though Dallas is competing on both sides of the court right now, last night’s loss for the Clippers against the Pelicans was an awakening for Los Angeles. New Orleans poked the bee hive last night, and Dallas happens to be the team that has to face the storm. Los Angeles will play perfect basketball tonight as they need to show their playoff structure. They need to show how dominant they can be in the Western Conference.
Can’t seem to get over .500 recently in these NBA betting picks but trust that the pendulum will swing more in our direction. The NBA may be the best “spot play” sport in the world and the spots we look for will glare brighter the further we get from the All-Star break. Let’s tackle some Monday picks!
Hornets -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The spot and line favor the Hornets tonight. Charlotte is on a quiet little tear, now the winners of 3 straight and about to play their third consecutive home game. The Kings are as up and down as ever. They lost 3 out of their last 5 games, managed to beat the aimless Rockets and sneakily defeated a Lebron-less Lakers before the break. The Kings and Hornets faced off last at the end of February in a game where Charlotte won by only 1 point thanks to a last-second free throw by Malik Monk. The Hornets are a mid-tier team whose 18th rank in point differential is a relevant indicator of how they play basketball. LaMelo Ball is the talk of the town but the Hornets only beat up on inferior teams. They struggle against the big boys. Good thing the Kings are pretty horrible. Sacramento is in the middle of a long East Coast road trip and and no one in the NBA is worse at preventing their opponent from scoring (the Kings allow 120 ppg, yikes). Look for the Hornets to take advantage tonight, led my LaMelo’s dynamic passing ability. PS- the total for this game is set at a staggering 239.5, which only supports the case that it’s likely Charlotte will win by margin and cover.
Wizards +9 (-110), 1 unit: The Bucks are capable of blowing anyone out when Giannis and his crew are firing on all cylinders but it’s much less likely on the road. Milwaukee is only 6-12 ATS away from their home court. Two nights ago the Bucks outlasted the Wizards but nearly lost, and that was against a team without their star. Tonight the NBA’s scoring leader Bradley Beal returns and that can only mean good things for Washington. The Wiz-kids took the Bucks to their limit in the last contest and this line is moving down. I’ll put a unit on the dog to cover.
Knicks +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting handicap. We have the NBA’s #1 offense, averaging 120.6 ppg, going up against arguably the association’s best defense. The Knicks allow only 105 ppg and are rated #5 in adjusted defensive efficiency. When they’re aggressive and turn up the volume, I don’t know if there’s a better defensive unit. It’s reasonable to assume the Nets will win this game, but I think they’re laying too many points. The Knicks are good enough and have enough pride in their city to put in some extra effort tonight. New York has had some head-scratchers, like that beat-down at San Antonio before the break and recently allowing 134 points at Milwaukee. They also haven’t faced too many contenders the past month. That aside, this isn’t a true away game and I have no question about New York’s motivation. New York runs at the slowest tempo in the NBA and I think they can stun Brooklyn’s rhythm. Give me the pumped up dog.
Clippers -1.5 (-110), 2.5 units: This is one of my favorite bets in awhile and I’d be pretty shocked if it didn’t hit. The spot and trends all favor LAC. Firstly, the last time these two teams faced the Mavericks annihilated the Clippers 124-73 in late December. That’s a 51 point margin for the accounting majors out there and it’s a rare feat in professional basketball. Of course it was the very start of the season and Kawhi didn’t play in that game, but it was at home. Is there anything worse than getting your doors blows off at your own arena?– No way that still doesn’t leave a bad taste in LAC’s collective mouth. Secondly, as if the Clippers needed more motivation, they just got obliterated last night by the Pelicans. New Orleans is maybe the NBA’s most volatile team so this isn’t completely a surprise (we actually called it in yesterday’s write-up), but that’s not a good look for LAC. The Clippers pride themselves as a buttoned-up, top tier team and championship contender. I think that’s the squad we’ll see tonight. Dallas is at home but that doesn’t matter to me. The Mavericks are feelin’ good after a nice win over their Western-Conference rival Denver Nuggets 2 nights ago. Time for a shock to their system. The Clippers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after a 10+ point loss. As long as Kawhi and their starters are in tonight, and all signs say they are, hammer LAC!
Warriors win (+120), 1 unit: Lebron is on and off the Laker’s injury report, Gasol and Caruso are out, and the Warriors are at home after a big win against the Jazz. The Warriors are also fully healthy. This is a good set up and spot for the Golden State to flex and it’s the reason why this line is so low– books are daring you to take the Lakers. I think this is one of those games Lebron won’t mind losing, especially when all the momentum is loaded up and in full-swing at the Chase Center. I’m on Golden State for a small upset.
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Feb 29, 2020; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) goes to the basket against the Houston Rockets during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Celtics (-10.5) vs Houston Rockets 8:05pm est
Boston comes into this game playing some tough basketball over their last 5 games. They won 4 of their last 5 before losing a close one to a very elite Brooklyn team. Boston in 9th in offensive rebounds, and averaging 47.3% from shooting.
Houston comes into play looking to snap a a 15 game losing streak. They are shooting 32.6% from behind the arc. Also ranked 8th in shots per game. They are averaging 107.3 ppg while giving up 113.7 ppg.
With Houston only having 9 available players to suit up for this game, it is going to get ugly quick. Boston is a team that is finally coming into its form, and Houston is not even a bump in the road for them. With Christian Wood (22.0ppg), John Wall (21.0ppg), and Eric Gordon (17.8ppg), all out there will be little to any scoring for Houston. This might be over by halftime.
I have a crazy day today and the clocks going up an hour here on the east coast doesn’t help any. Just like my NCAAM write ups, these will be shorter than usual for that reason– onto my cash cow!
Grizzlies -7.5 (-110), 1 unit: OKC enters Sunday without guard Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, at least as far as we know, and we saw how that went in their game against the Knicks (not good). The Grizzlies don’t bring the same defensive prowess but they are in a good spot after a near-win against Denver 2 nights ago. Memphis is healthy and should easily beat the Thunder. This is only a 1 unit play because the Grizzlies have to turn around and face Phoenix tomorrow– not an ideal position. Hopefully they see this as a must-win.
Warriors +3.5 (1st half only), 1.5 units: The Warriors are due for some positive regression and with LAL on deck Monday, they could easily be looking at a 6 game losing streak if they’re not careful. Curry and company won’t be intimidated by the West-leading Jazz and they’re at home with 2 days to prepare. I think this is close at least in the 1st half.
76ers -4 (-110), 1.5 units: Seems like Philadelphia can plug and play anyone and still run away with big victories lately. That’s been especially impressive in their road victories. The 76ers will be without Embiid today but Simmons is back and Philly has a 16-3 home record. LeMarcus Aldridge is out today too, so it’s not like San Antonio is firing on all cylinders. The Spurs are a mid-tier team at best and Philly should take care of business at the Wells Fargo Center. Let’s not overcomplicate things.
Hawks -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Rut row– are the Hawks on the mend now after the All-Star break? Atlanta has now won four in a row and they’re creeping up as almost a top 10 team in point differential (right now they sit at #11 with a +.08). The Hawks are healthy, under new management, and they’re at home. Cleveland can be feisty but I have to favor the Hawks to win by more than 2 possessions. They’re 2nd quarter comeback and then effective dismantling of the Kings last night was impressive.
Blazers -4.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Blazers/T-Wolves over 234 (-110), 2 units: Check out my write up from yesterday— I have no reason to believe this won’t happen again. I’ll play less units on Portland since Minnesota matched up and played surprisingly well last night. The Blazers should have covered, though. Again, with the pace and lackluster defenses that these teams display, I don’t know why this total sits at under 240. Automatic over play for me.
Lean, Pelicans +6 (-110): Why do I have a sneaky feeling the Pelicans will show up and play really good basketball tonight? They’re so volatile and I hate betting on them lately so this is just a lean, but on paper and even against LAC’s stars, Zion in a high tempo offense is a mismatch for most teams. They’re at home and need an impressive win. Hmm…
